Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of Tesla (TSLA US) to "Buy" with a target price of US$282.13 [1][2][15] Core Views - The electric vehicle (EV) delivery volume and energy storage installation in Q2 2024 exceeded market expectations, leading to an upgrade in the rating [1][2] - The fundamentals of the EV business are improving, with potential valuation increases for FSD, Robotaxi, and robotics businesses [2][8] - The report anticipates continued strong performance in energy storage installations in Q3 and Q4 2024 [1][2] Summary by Sections Delivery and Installation Performance - Q2 2024 EV delivery reached 443,956 units, a year-on-year decline of 4.8% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.8% [1] - Energy storage installation reached 9.4 GWh, representing a year-on-year growth of 157.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase compared to the average of 3.7 GWh in 2023 [1][8] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been raised by 6.5%, 5.8%, and 5.5% to US$102.31 billion, US$122.67 billion, and US$146.64 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -5.7%, 19.9%, and 19.5% [2][8] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for 2024-2026 have been increased by 7.9%, 6.5%, and 5.9% to US$11.93 billion, US$15.66 billion, and US$19.61 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.7%, 31.3%, and 25.2% [2][8] Valuation Adjustments - The P/E ratio for Tesla's automotive business has been adjusted to 90 times for 2024, up from the previous estimate of 50 times, while the energy storage business valuation has been raised to 10 times P/S from 5 times P/S [2][15] - The new target price of US$282.13 reflects these adjustments, significantly up from the previous target of US$151.31 [2][15] Market Catalysts - Key catalysts for the stock price increase include the approval of Elon Musk's US$56 billion compensation plan and the introduction of favorable financing policies for Model 3 and Model Y in China [2][8] - Anticipation of the Robotaxi launch on August 8 is expected to further enhance market sentiment [2][8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the pharmaceutical industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the assisted reproduction and weight loss drug sectors, particularly GLP-1 targeted drugs, are expected to benefit from policy support. It anticipates that the industry's performance will grow by over 10% in 2024, leading to a valuation recovery [1][2]. - Recent policy developments, such as the inclusion of assisted reproduction projects in medical insurance in Jiangsu, are seen as favorable for industry growth. The report notes that various regions are adopting similar policies, which could enhance the sector's development [2][19]. - The report emphasizes that negative factors affecting the industry in recent years, such as volume-based procurement and pandemic disruptions, are expected to dissipate, contributing to a rebound in the medical sector's performance [2][14]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - During the period from June 1 to June 30, 2024, 32 companies in the Shenwan Pharmaceutical A-share market saw stock price increases, with the top three sub-industries being chemical preparations (7 companies), traditional Chinese medicine (6 companies), and raw materials (5 companies) [5][9]. - In the same period, 23 companies in the Shenwan Pharmaceutical H-share market experienced stock price increases, with the leading sub-industries being other biological products (8 companies), chemical preparations (6 companies), and raw materials, medical consumables, and pharmaceutical distribution (2 companies each) [5][9]. Valuation Analysis - The report indicates that the average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the Shenwan Pharmaceutical A-share index is currently at 27x, which is a 21% discount compared to the historical average over the past five years [14][17]. - The report provides a detailed breakdown of the current and historical P/E ratios for various sub-sectors within the pharmaceutical industry, highlighting significant discounts in areas such as biological products and medical services [17][24]. Policy Developments - Key policies impacting the pharmaceutical industry include the inclusion of assisted reproduction services in medical insurance and initiatives aimed at improving public awareness of weight management, which are expected to stimulate growth in the weight loss drug sector [2][19]. - The report notes that the National Health Commission and other departments have launched a "Weight Management Year" initiative, which aims to address the rising issues of obesity and related health risks in China [2][19]. Company News - Notable company developments include Novo Nordisk's approval for its weight management drug in China, and significant clinical trial results from Innovent Biologics regarding their GLP-1 receptor agonist [21][22]. - The report also mentions strategic partnerships and agreements among various pharmaceutical companies, indicating ongoing innovation and collaboration within the industry [21][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report lists several companies with "Buy" ratings, including Hansoh Pharmaceutical, BeiGene, and Innovent Biologics, citing their strong growth potential and innovative product pipelines as key reasons for the recommendations [22][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876 HK) with a target price of HK$15.20, down from HK$16.52, reflecting an 8% decrease [1][4][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Budweiser APAC's revenue for Q2 2024 is expected to decline by 2.3% year-on-year, primarily due to weakness in the Chinese beer market, although this is partially offset by a recovery in the South Korean market [4][5]. - The normalized EBITDA for Q2 2024 is projected to grow by 4.5%, driven by cost efficiencies and effective marketing expense management [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the need for a recovery in consumer sentiment in China, as the company's performance is significantly impacted by the sluggish beer market in the region [4][5]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024E are set at US$6,864 million, with a slight decrease of 0.6% from previous estimates [9]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024E is forecasted at US$995 million, reflecting a minor reduction of 0.3% [9]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including expected EPS of US$0.07 for 2024E, unchanged from previous estimates [6][9]. Market Performance - The current stock price is HK$9.20, indicating a potential upside of 65% to the target price [2]. - The market capitalization of Budweiser APAC is reported at US$15,606 million, with a three-month average daily trading volume of US$20 million [2][3]. Regional Insights - The report notes that Budweiser APAC's sales in the Chinese market are expected to decline, while the South Korean market is anticipated to show recovery, benefiting from previous price increases and a low base effect [5][4]. - The average selling price in the South Korean market is expected to rise due to effective pricing strategies implemented in Q4 2023 [5]. Valuation - The report values Budweiser APAC at a P/E ratio of 26.0x for 2024, which is lower than the previous estimate of 28.2x, indicating a more attractive valuation compared to historical averages [10].

Investment Rating and Target Price - The report initiates coverage on Shenwei Pharmaceutical (2877 HK) with a **Buy** rating and a target price of HK$19.30 [1][4] - The target price implies an upside potential of **+151%** from the current price of HK$7.69 [2] - The target price corresponds to a 2024 P/E of 12x, in line with the average of comparable companies in the Hong Kong market [5] Core Investment Thesis - Shenwei Pharmaceutical is a mature traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) manufacturer with a robust product portfolio, including injections, TCM formula granules, granules, and soft capsules [4][13] - The company is expected to achieve a **15% CAGR in revenue** and **13% CAGR in net profit** from 2023 to 2026, driven by growth in TCM formula granules and granule segments [4][13] - The company has a strong shareholder return profile, with a historical dividend payout ratio of 40%-50% and an average dividend yield of 4.5% from 2014 to 2023, ranking 6th among 87 healthcare H-shares [4][12] - Free cash flow is expected to remain robust, supporting a potential increase in dividend payout, with projected dividend yields of 7.8%/8.6%/10.0% for 2024-26 [4][12] Key Business Segments and Growth Drivers TCM Formula Granules - TCM formula granules are expected to be a major growth driver, with a projected **20% CAGR in revenue** from 2023 to 2026 [4][13] - The company won all 200 bids in the first national TCM formula granules centralized procurement, which is expected to facilitate nationwide expansion [13][45] - The company plans to expand into new markets such as Beijing, Tianjin, Shandong, and Anhui, leveraging its cost control and operational efficiency advantages [13][45] - The segment is expected to maintain a high gross margin of around 74%, benefiting from the company's early price adjustments and efficient operations [13][45] Injections - The injection segment, which accounted for 39.5% of 2023 revenue, is expected to grow at a **5% CAGR** from 2023 to 2026, driven by the lifting of payment restrictions on five key injection products [13][15] - The core product, Qingkailing Injection, saw a 75% YoY revenue growth in 2023 due to increased demand during the flu season, but is expected to decline in 2024 due to a high base effect [15][41] - The company's injection products are expected to benefit from increased acceptance and reduced adverse reaction rates, supported by stricter regulatory standards [22][26] Granules - The granule segment, contributing 15.4% of 2023 revenue, is expected to grow at a **21% CAGR** from 2023 to 2026, driven by the company's exclusive product, Huamoyan Granules [13][55] - Huamoyan Granules, the only approved TCM for synovitis treatment, is expected to see strong growth as the company increases marketing efforts post-anti-corruption measures [55][57] Soft Capsules - The soft capsule segment is expected to grow at a **15% CAGR** from 2023 to 2026, driven by products like Huoxiang Zhengqi Soft Capsules and Jiangzhi Tongluo Soft Capsules [13] Industry Catalysts and Policy Support - The TCM industry is expected to benefit from favorable policies, including potential inclusion of more TCM products in the National Essential Drug List and continued support for TCM in the healthcare system [4][13] - The lifting of payment restrictions on five injection products in the 2023 National Reimbursement Drug List is expected to drive volume growth [15][16] - Stricter regulatory standards for TCM injections are expected to improve product quality and patient acceptance, benefiting established players like Shenwei Pharmaceutical [22][26] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The target price of HK$19.30 implies a 2024 P/E of 12x, in line with the average of comparable companies in the Hong Kong market [5] - The company's current 2024 P/E of 5.4x is significantly lower than the peer average of 12x, suggesting potential for valuation re-rating [10] - Shenwei Pharmaceutical's strong free cash flow generation and high dividend yield make it an attractive investment in the TCM sector [4][12]

s 证券研究报告 / 行业更新报告 5 月新能源车渗透率达到 46.7%,欧盟反补贴关税可能影 响中国车企短期出口前景 • 5 月新能源车零售销量达 80.4 万辆,同环比增长 38.6%/18.8%,5 月渗透率为 46.7%。 • 5 月动力+储能电池产销稳步提升,储能电池同环比出口大幅增长。 • 欧盟反补贴初裁结果对中国车企影响有限,对电池企业无影响。 5 月购车政策提前退出促进新能源车销量同环比提升。根据乘联会数据,5 月狭义乘用车 零售销量实现 171.0 万辆,同比下滑 3.0%,环比提升 11.4%;批发销量实现 203.1 万辆, 同 环 比 提 升 0.6%/7.9% 。 当 月 新 能 源 车 零 售 销 量 达 80.4 万 辆 , 同 环 比 提 升 38.6%/18.8%,5 月渗透率为 46.7%(4 月渗透率为 43.5%),1-5 月累计渗透率提升至 39.9%。我们认为 5 月新能源车销量增长主要系新能源车车购税优惠政策自 6 月 1 日起剔 除 200 公里以下微型电动车等入门车型,因而 5 月车购税优惠政策退出前的抢上牌因素促 进 了 新 能 源 市 场 的 持 续 增 ...

2024 年6 月11 日 汽车汽配: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 蔚来汽车 (NIO US, 持有, 目标价: US$5.20) 1Q24 盈利承压，毛利率受益于交付量增长有望环比改善 目标价: US$5.20 当前股价: US$4.72 • 受行业竞争加剧、新旧车型更替影响，1Q24 整体业绩承压。 股价上行/下行空间 +10% 52周最高/最低价 (US$) 16.18/3.61 • 预计2Q24 交付5.4-5.6 万辆新车，2Q24 汽车板块毛利率有望环比提升至双位数。 市值 (US$mn) 8,025 • 维持“持有”评级和目标价5.20 美元不变。 当前发行数量(百万股) 1,700 三个月平均日交易額 270 1Q24 整体业绩承压，当期在手现金流出约120 亿元。根据蔚来汽车1Q24 业绩报告，公 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) 91 司实现营业收入99.1 亿元，同环比下降7.2%/42.1%；其中汽车销售收入83.8 亿元，同环 主要股东 (%) 比下降9.1%/45.7%。公司1Q24 综合毛利率为4.9%，同比提升3.4 个百分点，环比下降 李斌 11 2.6 个百分点 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating and slightly raises the SOTP target price from HKD 175.00 to HKD 180.00 due to improved earnings prospects [1] Core Views - The valuation for the food delivery business is set at USD 57 billion using a 15x 2024 P/E, reflecting a 60% discount compared to the industry average of 37.5x due to a smaller Total Addressable Market (TAM) [1] - The valuation for the in-store, hotel, and tourism business is set at USD 38 billion, also using a 15x 2024 P/E, which is a 20% discount compared to the industry average of 19.2x, again due to a smaller TAM [1] - The community e-commerce and local retail business is valued at USD 51 billion using a 0.8x 2024 P/GMV, which is a 20% discount compared to the industry average of 1.0x [17] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, food delivery revenue is expected to grow by 23% year-on-year, slightly below the 24% growth in order volume, with average order value (AOV) declining due to subdued consumer spending [5] - The adjusted EBIT for Q1 2024 is projected to be RMB 5,209 million, reflecting a 45% year-on-year increase [10] - The adjusted net income for Q1 2024 is expected to be RMB 7,488 million, a 36% increase year-on-year [10] - The report forecasts total revenue growth of 18% for Q2 2024 and 19% for the full year 2024, with an adjusted EBIT margin of 13.1% for Q2 2024 [16] Business Segment Insights - The new business segment's losses narrowed to RMB 2.75 billion in Q1 2024, with expectations of further reductions in losses in subsequent quarters [6] - The in-store and hotel business is expected to accelerate profit growth as competition stabilizes [5] - The food delivery and flash purchase business saw significant order volume growth, with flash purchase turning profitable in Q1 2024 due to high-margin product contributions [5]

s 2024 年6 月5 日 证券研究报告 / 行业更新报告 医药 2 医药月报（五月）：集采常态化，人工关节集采续约降价 温和 • 统计时间段内， 除了 H 股超小盘外，申万A/H 各市值区间均有所下跌。 • 医药行业进入常态化严监管阶段，利好合规的龙头企业。 • 我们预计2024 年行业业绩增长有望超过10%并将推动估值修复。 根据万得数据，统计时间段内（2024/5/1-2024/5/31）申万医药A 股（461 家）共有103 家公司上涨，按照子行业来看，涨幅数量前三的为化学制剂28 家，中药14 家，原料药11 家。统计时间段内申万医药H 股（87 家）共有38 家公司上涨，按照子行业来看，涨幅数 量并列前三的为其他生物制品6 家，原料药6 家，化学试剂6 家。 本月重点新闻政策： 1）国家医保局、国家税务总局在京签署《关于“推进数据共享 深化协同共治”合作备忘 录》，进一步深化巩固两部门合作，拓展双方数据资源优势，持续提升服务效能，以部门 协同共治更好服务经济社会高质量发展。我们认为，过去，由于各部门职责和管理权限不 同，医保局想了解企业的成本、费用情况，只能通过财政部以“医药行业会计信息质量检 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HK$14.07, up from the previous target of HK$13.15 [1][17][35]. Core Insights - The clinical data presented at the 2024 ASCO annual meeting shows that TST001 combined with nivolumab and CAPOX has a median progression-free survival (mPFS) of 12.6 months in patients with high/medium CLDN18.2 expression and 80% of PD-L1 CPS<5 patients [3][49]. - The company has optimized its R&D pipeline and resource allocation, resulting in a modest increase in R&D expenses to RMB 382 million in 2023, which is a year-on-year increase of RMB 32.2 million [5][51]. - The DCF valuation model indicates a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.8% and a terminal growth rate of 2.0%, leading to a new target price of HK$14.07 [7][35]. Financial Analysis - The company's revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 132 million, with a gross profit of RMB 33 million, and a net loss of RMB 527 million [32][58]. - R&D expenses for 2024E are expected to be RMB 396 million, reflecting a 21% reduction from previous estimates [5][37]. - The company anticipates a 15% growth in net profit for both 2024E and 2025E, with net losses decreasing from RMB 624 million to RMB 527 million in 2024E [5][37]. Valuation Overview - The DCF analysis estimates the equity value at HK$14.07 per share, indicating a potential upside of 691% from the current share price of HK$1.78 [48][35]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately US$42 million, with a current share count of 184 million [48]. Clinical Development - The report highlights the significant clinical efficacy of TST001 in treating gastric or gastroesophageal junction cancer, particularly in patients with high/medium CLDN18.2 expression [39][49]. - The results from the Phase I/II clinical trials support the advancement of TST001 into Phase III trials, which have received regulatory approval from the FDA and CDE [39][49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics with a target price of HK$14.23, indicating a potential upside of 57% from the current price of HK$9.06 [1][2][10] Core Insights - JD Logistics has shown significant improvement in profit margins, leading to an upward revision of the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024-2026 by 4.7% to 18.4% [4][8] - The company is expected to benefit from enhanced operational efficiency due to automation, cost savings from the integration of Debon Holdings, and improved economies of scale [4][5] - The report highlights that 31% of JD Logistics' revenue still comes from related parties, indicating a significant dependency on its parent company, JD Group [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 181,863 million, with a growth rate of 9.1% [6][9] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 7.6% in 2023 to 8.3% in 2024 [7][9] - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 2,634 million, reflecting a 32.7% year-on-year increase [6][9] Earnings Forecast - The report revises the EPS estimates for 2024 to RMB 0.42, up from RMB 0.40, and for 2025 to RMB 0.54, up from RMB 0.47 [3][9] - The adjusted net profit margin is expected to increase slightly, with projections of 1.4% for 2024 and 1.7% for 2025 [9][10] Valuation - The target price of HK$14.23 is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, maintaining a WACC of 11.7% and a perpetual growth rate of 2% [10][11] - The current valuation suggests a significant discount of 36.3% compared to the target price, indicating potential for price appreciation [10][11]