2024 年4 月3 日 医药: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 翰森制药 (3692 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$19.91) 自主研发和 BD 合作推动公司业绩稳健增长 目标价: HK$19.91 当前股价: HK$15.48 • 创新药收入增长和对外授权收入使得公司2023 年利润增速快速增长。 股价上行/下行空间 +29% 52周最高/最低价 (HK$) 17.24/9.41 • 自主研发和BD 合作形成差异化管线布局。 市值 (US$mn) 11,701 • 维持买入，将DCF 目标价上调至HK$19.91 (WACC: 9.1%)。 当前发行数量(百万股) 5,916 三个月平均日交易額 11 2023 年创新药收入保持快速增长：根据公司公告，2023 实现营收/ 归母净利润 101.4 亿 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) 41 元 / 32.8 亿元，同比+7.7%/ 26.9%。其中，医药产品的销售收入为94 亿元，同比+1.1%。 主要股东 (%) 创新药收入同比增加37.1%至68.7 亿元，占公司总收入的比例上升至67.9%（2022 年为 Stellar Infinity ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanghai Pharmaceuticals-A with a target price of RMB 22.37, down from the previous target of RMB 23.63, indicating a potential upside of 27% from the current price of RMB 17.62 [1][6][14]. Core Insights - The company experienced steady revenue growth in 2023, achieving revenue of RMB 263 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12%. However, the net profit of RMB 3.768 billion fell short of expectations, declining by 33% year-on-year [1][2]. - The pharmaceutical distribution segment showed strong performance with revenue of RMB 233.76 billion, up 14% year-on-year, while the pharmaceutical manufacturing segment saw a slight decline in revenue [1][2]. - The innovative drug pipeline is entering a harvest phase, with several new drugs in various stages of clinical trials and applications [2][14]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the company reported a net profit of RMB 3.768 billion, down 33% from the previous year, with a corresponding EPS of RMB 1.02, a decrease of 35% [1][8]. - The operating cash flow for 2023 was RMB 5.232 billion, reflecting a 10% increase year-on-year [1][8]. - The report forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue and net profit of 11% and 19%, respectively, from 2023 to 2026 [1][2]. Segment Performance - The pharmaceutical distribution segment generated revenue of RMB 233.76 billion, with a gross margin of 6.3%, down 0.27 percentage points year-on-year [1][9]. - The pharmaceutical manufacturing segment reported revenue of RMB 26.26 billion, a decrease of 2% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 58.5% [2][9]. - The retail segment achieved revenue of RMB 9.11 billion, up 10% year-on-year, but with a declining gross margin of 12.0% [9]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - Due to lower-than-expected performance in 2023, the report has revised down the earnings forecasts for 2024 and 2025, with EPS estimates adjusted to RMB 1.56 and RMB 1.66, representing decreases of 18% and 19% respectively [3][11][13].

2024 年4 月3 日 医药: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 上海医药-A (601607 CH, 买入, 目标价: RMB22.37) 2023 年营收稳健增长；创新药迎来收获期 目标价: RMB22.37 当前股价: RMB17.62 • 2023 年营收稳健增长，2023 年股息率为2.1%（最近三年平均为2.4%）。 股价上行/下行空间 +27% 52周最高/最低价 (RMB) 23.98/15.36 • 医药商业：CSO、疫苗、器械大健康等业务为未来增长点；医药工业：创新药管线进 市值 (US$mn) 11,031 入收获期。 当前发行数量(百万股) 2,842 • 维持买入评级，SOTP 目标价下调至22.37 元。 三个月平均日交易額 31 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) 68 2023 年营收稳健增长，净利润低于我们预测：公司发布年报，2023 年实现营收2,630 亿 主要股东 (%) 元，同比增长12%；归母净利润37.68 亿元，同比下降33%；扣非归母净利润35.96 亿 香港中央结算 19 元，同比下降16%。其中4Q23 实现营收628 亿元，同比9%；归母净亏损28 ...

2024 年4 月3 日 医药: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 云南白药 (000538 CH, 持有, 目标价: RMB54.20) 2023 年营收稳健增长，新业务表现有待观察 目标价: RMB54.20 当前股价: RMB50.74 • 我们预测，2023A-26E 营收/ 归母净利润CAGR 为6%/9%。 股价上行/下行空间 +7% 52周最高/最低价 (RMB) 59.90/44.88 • 2023 年核心产品保持高速增长，健康品净利率承压。 市值 (US$mn) 12,611 • 维持持有评级，下调DCF 目标价至54.20 元。 当前发行数量(百万股) 1,797 三个月平均日交易額 56 2023 年业绩符合预期，分红率超90%：云南白药发布年报，2023 年，实现营收391.11 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) 47 亿元，同比增长7%；实现归母净利润40.94 亿元，同比增长36%。净利润增速大幅超过 主要股东 (%) 营收增速主要原因为2022 年为低基数。其中4Q23 实现营收94.22 亿元，同比减少2%； 云南省国资委 25 实现归母净亏损0.30 亿元，同比减少10 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 20.40, down from the previous target of RMB 24.60 [1][9]. Core Insights - The automotive safety business has completed its integration, and the report is optimistic about sustained growth in performance. The overseas automotive safety business continued to reduce losses in Q4 2023, with an annual gross margin exceeding expectations at 15.1% [1][2]. - In Q4 2023, new orders reached RMB 14.7 billion, with expectations for orders from German automotive companies in 2024 [2][7]. - The report projects a revenue adjustment for 2024-2025, with expected revenues of RMB 643.0 billion and RMB 728.4 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 15.4% and 13.3% respectively [7][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, the company achieved revenue of RMB 144.2 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.6% and a year-on-year increase of 0.9%. The gross margin for Q4 was 18.4%, up 6.6 percentage points year-on-year [1][6]. - For the full year 2023, the company reported revenue of RMB 557.3 billion, an 11.9% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 15.1%, up 3.1 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 10.8 billion, a significant increase of 174.8% year-on-year [1][5]. Order Book and Future Projections - The total new orders for 2023 amounted to approximately RMB 737 billion, with new energy orders accounting for RMB 442 billion, or about 60% of the total. The company expects to fully turn around its North American automotive safety business in 2024, further enhancing profitability [2][7]. - The report introduces 2026 performance forecasts, estimating revenues of RMB 786.7 billion and net profits of RMB 22.7 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 8.0% and 11.9% respectively [7][8]. Valuation Adjustments - The report slightly lowers the company's 2024 P/E valuation to 20 times, down from 23 times, reflecting the completed integration of the automotive safety business and the expectation of steady profit growth in 2024 [9][10].

2024 年3 月28 日 消费服务: 中性 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 九毛九国际 (9922 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$7.00) 当前估值仍具吸引力 目标价: HK$7.00 当前股价: HK$5.27 • 2023 年业绩符合预期，太二继续快速增长； 股价上行/下行空间 +33% 52周最高/最低价 (HK$) 19.26/4.42 • 持续变革寻找需求，测算市值大概率介于77-130 亿港元，当前估值仍具吸引力； 市值 (US$mn) 968 • 维持买入评级，维持7.00 港元目标价不变，对应15 倍2024 年P/E。 当前发行数量(百万股) 1,437 三个月平均日交易額 10 2023 年业绩符合预期，太二继续快速增长：1）九毛九发布2023 年业绩，营收同比增长 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) 100 49.4%至59.9 亿元，实现归母净利润4.5 亿元；折算2H23 营收同比增长47.5%至31.1 主要股东 (%) 亿元，归母净利润2.3 亿元。2）太二品牌：23 年净开128 家门店至578 家，翻座率也改 GYH J Limited 37 善15.4%至3.0 次/ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HK$29.83, reflecting a potential upside of 49% from the current price of HK$19.96 [2][4][12]. Core Insights - The company's 2023 performance was slightly below expectations, with revenue and net profit growing by 8% and 6% year-on-year, respectively. The gross margin decreased by 0.46 percentage points to 8.13% [2][6]. - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend yield, projected at 4.2% for 2023, supported by robust free cash flow [2][12]. - Future revenue growth is anticipated from the distribution business, with a stable growth forecast for pharmaceutical distribution and medical device distribution [2][3]. Financial Data Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 672.5 billion in 2024, RMB 746.3 billion in 2025, and RMB 824.9 billion in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% from 2023 to 2026 [1][10]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: The net profit is expected to grow from RMB 9.1 billion in 2023 to RMB 13.0 billion by 2026, indicating a CAGR of 13% [1][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to increase from RMB 2.90 in 2023 to RMB 4.17 in 2026 [1][10]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 7.0x in 2023 to 4.4x in 2026, indicating a potentially undervalued stock [1][10]. Segment Performance - **Pharmaceutical Distribution**: Revenue from pharmaceutical distribution is expected to reach RMB 485.2 billion in 2024, growing steadily [17]. - **Medical Device Distribution**: Projected revenue for medical device distribution is RMB 149.7 billion in 2024, showing consistent growth despite a slowdown compared to previous years [17]. - **Retail Pharmacy**: Retail pharmacy revenue is forecasted to grow to RMB 48.0 billion in 2024, driven by the increasing demand for specialty drugs [17]. Adjustments and Forecast Changes - The report has adjusted the revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025 down by 3% due to the company's 2023 performance being slightly below expectations [10][12]. - The gross profit and net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have also been revised down by 8% and 9%, respectively [10][12]. Market Comparison - The company's current P/E ratio of 6.6x is lower than the average of comparable companies, suggesting potential for price appreciation [14][15].

2024 年3 月28 日 医药: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 京东健康 (6618 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$43.57) 毛利率有望持续恢复，服务收入有望保持快速增长 目标价: HK$43.57 当前股价: HK$28.35 • 经营效率提升和存款利息增长导致23 年利润增长超市场预期。 股价上行/下行空间 +54% 52周最高/最低价 (HK$) 64.55/25.25 • 2024 年开始疫情影响逐渐减弱，公司产品收入恢复正常增长。 市值 (US$mn) 11,395 • 维持“买入”评级，下调DCF 目标价至HK$43.57。 当前发行数量(百万股) 3,144 三个月平均日交易額 21 2023 年公司利润超市场预期，毛利率止跌回升：根据公司2023 年报告，京东健康2023 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) 15 年实现营业收入535.3 亿元（同比+14.5%）； 2023 年，公司实现盈利21.4 亿元（同比 主要股东 (%) +459%）；调整后Non-IFRS 净利润达到41.4 亿元（同比+58%）。2023 年，由于产品组 京东健康 68 合变动，公司毛利率上升 1 ...

2024 年3 月28 日 医药: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 信达生物 (1801 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$54.50) 心血管和代谢产品有望推动公司业绩快速增长 目标价: HK$54.50 当前股价: HK$38.55 • 多元化产品组合有望推动公司24-26 年收入CAGR 保持30%左右的增速。 股价上行/下行空间 +41% • 经营效率持续提升，公司财务表现将持续获益。 52周最高/最低价 (HK$) 49.80/27.30 市值 (US$mn) 7,173 • 重申“买入”评级；下调DCF 目标价至54.50 港元。 当前发行数量(百万股) 1,456 三个月平均日交易額 51 23 年产品收入增长迅速，24 年有望保持增长趋势：根据公司23 年年报，公司实现产品收 (US$mn) 入57.28 亿元，同比增长38.4%。公司以PD-1 为核心的主导产品均保持快速增长势头。 流通盘占比 (%) 57 2023 年，公司毛利率为81.7%，同比增长2.1ppt，主要系生产效率提升和生产成本持续 主要股东 (%) TLS BETA 6 降低。2023 年公司商业化产品增至10 款（2 ...

2024 年3 月28 日 耐用消费品及服装: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 安踏体育 (2020 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$105.55) 23 年业绩亮眼，预计 24 年营收同比增长 12.8% 目标价: HK$105.55 当前股价: HK$82.00 • 2023 年营收表现符合预期，利润端略超预期； 股价上行/下行空间 +29% 52周最高/最低价 (HK$) 118.40/60.20 • 我们预计2024 年营收/归母净利润分别同比增长12.8%/ 22.8%至703.2/ 125.7 亿 市值 (US$mn) 29,690 元； 当前发行数量(百万股) 2,833 • 维持买入评级，上调目标价9%至105.55 港元，对应20 倍2025 年P/E。 三个月平均日交易額 83 (US$mn) 23 年利润端表现略超预期：1）安踏体育发布23 年业绩，营收/归母净利润分别同比增长 流通盘占比 (%) 100 16.2%/ 34.9%至623.6/102.4 亿元，折算2H23 营收/归母净利润分别同比增长18.1%/ 主要股东 (%) 37.1%至327.1/54.9 亿元，营收端符 ...