Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer with a target price of HK$101.00, slightly down from the previous HK$101.58 [1][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that despite a significant increase in sales and distribution expenses in Q4 2023, the profit margin expansion trend is expected to continue into 2024, driven by product upgrades and a decrease in the sales and distribution expense ratio [1][2][4]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected at RMB 40.87 billion, which is 7.7% lower than previous forecasts due to increased brand investment following negative news in November 2023 [1][3]. - The report highlights that the average selling price of beer increased by 6.8% year-on-year in 2023, while sales volume decreased by 0.8%, indicating a shift towards higher-end products [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was RMB 31.55 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%. The projected revenue for 2024 is RMB 33.40 billion, maintaining the same growth rate [2][7]. - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 34.0%, expected to rise to 36.1% in 2024, reflecting ongoing improvements in product mix and cost management [2][10]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at RMB 3.64, down from RMB 3.82 previously forecasted, indicating a 5% decrease [1][3]. Valuation - The report uses a 15x adjusted EV/EBITDA multiple for valuation, which is higher than the current multiples of 9.0x for Chinese beer companies and 12.8x for liquor companies, reflecting the company's positive revenue structure changes and profit margin improvements [4][5]. - The target price of HK$101.00 is based on updated earnings forecasts and a revised exchange rate assumption of 1.10 for RMB/HKD [4][5]. Market Comparison - Qingdao Beer is compared with peers such as China Resources Beer and Budweiser APAC, showing a competitive position in terms of valuation metrics like P/E and EV/EBITDA [5]. - The report notes that Qingdao Beer trades at a P/E of 12.6x for 2024E, which is attractive given the expected growth in profit margins and revenue [5][10].

2024 年4 月12 日 食品、饮料及烟草: 中性 授权转发报告/ 业绩点评报告 华润啤酒 (291 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$39.50) 2024 年展望：轻装上阵，快步前行 目标价: HK$39.50 当前股价: HK$34.05 • 成本下行及持续的产品升级战略有望推动啤酒业务利润率和净利润双增。 股价上行/下行空间 +16% • 白酒收入有望重启健康增长，进而带动经营杠杆改善。 52周最高/最低价 (HK$) 65.40/27.20 市值 (US$mn) 14,106 • 重申“买入”评级，下调目标价至39.50 港元（对应11.0 倍2024 年 当前发行数量(百万股) 3,244 EV/EBITDA）。 三个月平均日交易額 53 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) 48 此港股通报告之英文版本于2024 年4 月10 日上午6 时由华兴证券（香港）发布。中 主要股东 (%) 文版由华兴证券的姜雪烽（证券分析师登记编号：S1680519070001）审核。如果您想 中国华润有限公司 52 进一步讨论本报告所述观点，请与您在华兴证券的销售代表联系。 按2024 年4 月9 日收市数据 资料来 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on ASMPT with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HK$150.00, representing a potential upside of 50% from the current price of HK$100.00 [1][8]. Core Insights - ASMPT is positioned as a leader in the thermocompression bonding (TCB) market, with the largest installed base globally and a strong technological advantage, making it the preferred solution for chip-to-substrate (C2S) and chip-to-wafer (C2W) bonding in AI and high-performance computing (HPC) applications [4][10]. - The advanced packaging segment has seen significant growth, contributing 22% of ASMPT's total sales in 2023, and is expected to drive valuation re-rating as the company shifts focus towards higher-margin, faster-growing advanced packaging solutions [6][8]. - The report highlights the importance of electrochemical deposition (ECD) equipment, which is increasingly recognized as a critical tool in advanced packaging, with potential for significant profit growth due to its high margins and strategic positioning in the market [5][20]. Summary by Sections Investment Overview - ASMPT is recognized as a key enabler in the TCB market, with its Firebird series being the leading technology for advanced packaging applications [4][9]. - The company has a strong customer base primarily consisting of foundries and integrated device manufacturers (IDMs), which supports its growth in advanced packaging [17]. Financial Analysis - The report forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17% for ASMPT's sales from 2023 to 2026, driven by increasing orders in semiconductor solutions [2][6]. - The gross margin is expected to improve gradually, supported by high R&D investments and operational leverage [2][6]. Valuation - The target price of HK$150.00 is based on a 25x P/E ratio for 2025, which is above the historical average since 2020 when advanced packaging began contributing significantly to revenue [8][6]. - The report suggests that ASMPT's current stock price is undervalued compared to its global peers, considering its strategic shift towards higher-value advanced packaging [8][6].

2024 年4 月10 日 消费服务: 中性 证券研究报告 / 公司更新报告 海底捞 (6862 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$20.51) 颇具确定性且股息优异，理应享受估值溢价 目标价: HK$20.51 当前股价: HK$17.64 • 我们预计 24 年营收/归母净利润分别同比增长11.4%/15.1%至461.8/51.8 亿元； 股价上行/下行空间 +16% 52周最高/最低价 (HK$) 23.95/11.94 • 海底捞作为业绩确定性得到验证且股息率优异的行业龙头，理应享受估值溢价； 市值 (US$mn) 12,555 • 维持买入评级，下调目标价15%至20.51 港元，对应20 倍2024 年P/E。 当前发行数量(百万股) 5,574 三个月平均日交易額 32 中短期颇具确定性：海底捞23 年翻台率改善至3.8 次/天，对应店均消费人次29 万，基 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) 100 本恢复至19 年水平，验证前期所推行的从产品迭代与营销获客，到薪酬结构调整与门店 主要股东 (%) 运营等一系列管理变革行之有效；当前也在继续探索提高老客复购并拓展新客的方法，进 NP Unite ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 27.77, indicating a potential upside of 46% from the current price of RMB 18.96 [1][2][16]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue and net profit CAGR of 13% and 17% respectively from 2023 to 2026, driven by an increase in plasma collection and blood product sales [4]. - The vaccine business has shown significant growth, with a revenue increase of 32% year-on-year in 2023, attributed to higher public demand for flu vaccines [5]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 30% over the next three years, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [4]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of RMB 53.41 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 18%, and a net profit of RMB 14.82 billion, up 38% from the previous year [4][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at RMB 0.93, with subsequent years showing a gradual increase to RMB 1.29 by 2026 [6][10]. - The gross profit margin improved to 39.3% in 2023, up from 31.5% in 2022, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [8][9]. Revenue Breakdown - Blood products generated revenue of RMB 29.26 billion in 2023, with a gross margin of 54.34% [4][9]. - The vaccine segment achieved revenue of RMB 24.05 billion, with a notable increase in the number of flu vaccine batches released [5][9]. - The company has expanded its plasma collection capabilities, with 32 plasma collection stations operational by the end of 2023, contributing to a 20% increase in plasma collection volume [4][5]. Adjustments and Forecasts - The revenue forecast for 2024 has been adjusted to RMB 6.05 billion, reflecting a 4% increase from previous estimates [13]. - The gross profit forecast for 2024 is now RMB 4.05 billion, up 5% from earlier projections [14]. - The report includes a new forecast for 2026, with expected revenue of RMB 7.67 billion [13][14].

s 2024 年3 月13 日 证券研究报告 / 行业更新报告 汽车汽配 1-2 月新能源车销量实现稳健增长，3 月多款新车发布有望持 续刺激需求 • 尽管2 月销量受春节因素影响市有所下滑，但2024 年前两个月整体批发/零售销量同 比增长37.1%/27.7%。 • 前两个月动力+储能电池产销分别同比增长29.5%/26.4%，装机量同比增长32.0%。 • 3 月新能源车市价格战持续升级，新车及降价车型有望刺激3 月需求。 2 月销量受春节假期影响下滑，但1-2 月销量维持稳健增长。根据乘联会数据，2 月狭义 乘用车零售销量实现109.5 万辆，同环比减少21.2%/46.2%； 2 月狭义批发销量实现 129.5 万辆，同环比减少19.9%/38.0%。2 月新能源车零售销量达38.8 万辆，同环比减少 11.6%/41.9%，1-2 月累计渗透率提升至33.4%（1 月累计渗透率为32.6%）。我们认为 2 月整体车市销量同环比减少，主要系受春节因素以及社会面对3 月购车政策有所期待导 致的观望情绪所致。1-2 月累计国内新能源车批发和零售销量分别达到112.9/105.6 万辆， 同比增长37.1 ...

2024 年3 月19 日 高端制造: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 宁德时代 (300750 CH, 买入, 目标价: RMB236.60) 2023 年分红超预期，全球动力电池龙头地位稳固 目标价: RMB236.60 当前股价: RMB190.96 • 宁德时代宣告221 亿元分红，超市场预期；全年毛利率同比提升2.7 个百分点至 股价上行/下行空间 +24% 22.9%； 52周最高/最低价 (RMB) 251.33/140.40 市值 (US$mn) 116,728 • 2023 年全球市占率达到36.8%；看好2024 年在市场份额和业绩上进一步拉开与同行 当前发行数量(百万股) 4,399 的差距； 三 (U个 S$月 mn平 ) 均日交易額 642 • 维持“买入”评级，目标价调整至236.60 元（对应22 倍2024 年P/E）。 流通盘占比 (%) 88 2023 年盈利大幅提升，分红比例超预期。根据宁德时代2023 年业绩报告，公司4Q23 实 主要股东 (%) 厦门瑞庭投资有限公司 23 现营业收入1,062.4 亿元，同比下滑10.2%，环比增长0.8%；毛利率为25.7% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec (603259 CH) with a target price of RMB 66.31, reflecting a 30% upside potential from the current price of RMB 50.81 [1][14]. Core Insights - WuXi AppTec's 2023 performance met expectations, with revenue and net profit reaching RMB 40.34 billion and RMB 9.61 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 2.5% and 9.0% [4][11]. - The company has maintained a 30% cash dividend payout ratio, distributing RMB 9.8 per 10 shares in 2023, totaling RMB 2.88 billion [4][11]. - The TIDES new molecule platform within the chemical business segment is expected to drive long-term revenue growth, with a significant increase in orders and revenue [5][11]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, WuXi AppTec achieved revenue of RMB 40.34 billion and a net profit of RMB 9.61 billion, with active clients increasing by over 1,200 to more than 6,000 [4][11]. - The company forecasts 2024 revenue to be between RMB 38.3 billion and RMB 40.5 billion, with a non-IFRS net profit margin expected to remain stable at approximately 26.9% [4][11]. - The projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue and net profit from 2023 to 2026 is estimated at 7.5% and 7.8%, respectively [4][11]. Business Segment Analysis - The chemical business segment generated RMB 29.17 billion in revenue in 2023, with a 36% increase when excluding COVID-19 related projects [5][11]. - The testing segment reported revenue of RMB 6.54 billion, reflecting a 14% year-on-year increase, while the biological segment achieved RMB 2.55 billion, up 3% [5][11]. - The TIDES platform's revenue grew by 64% year-on-year to RMB 3.41 billion, with a 226% increase in orders [5][11]. Adjustments and Forecasts - The report has adjusted the target price down by 53% from RMB 140.27 to RMB 66.31 due to uncertainties in U.S. policies affecting revenue forecasts for the chemical and testing segments [1][14]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been reduced by 24% and 30%, respectively, with net profit and EPS estimates also lowered by 21% and 28% [12][14]. - The updated financial projections for 2024 include revenue of RMB 39.53 billion, net profit of RMB 9.47 billion, and EPS of RMB 3.19 [12][14].

2024 年4 月8 日 医药: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 同仁堂 (600085 CH, 买入, 目标价: RMB57.60) 未来三年，业绩有望维持稳健增长 目标价: RMB57.60 当前股价: RMB41.27 • 我们预测公司2023A-26E 年营收/ 归母净利润CAGR 为11%/ 19%。 股价上行/下行空间 +40% 52周最高/最低价 (RMB) 64.28/39.71 • 医药工业其他产品营收增速加快；医药商业板块单店营收有望持续提升。 市值 (US$mn) 7,822 • 重申买入，下调DCF（WACC：7.3%）目标价至57.60 元。 当前发行数量(百万股) 1,371 三个月平均日交易額 68 2023 年营收基本符合，但净利润低于我们预期：同仁堂发布年报，2023 年公司实现营收 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) 100 178.61 亿元，同比增长16%；归母净利润16.69 亿元，同比增长17%。其中4Q23，公司 主要股东 (%) 实现营收41.40 亿元，同比下降7%；归母净利润2.78 亿元，同比下降34%。2023 年， 北京同仁堂(集团) 52 公司 ...

2024 年4 月8 日 医药: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 泰格医药 (300347 CH, 买入, 目标价: RMB71.03) 新冠相关业务影响逐步出清，加快新兴业务发展 目标价: RMB71.03 当前股价: RMB50.24 • 2023 年业绩低于我们预期，毛利率承压。 股价上行/下行空间 +41% 52周最高/最低价 (RMB) 111.92/36.12 • 新冠相关业务影响逐渐出清；我们预测2023A-26E 营收/ 归母净利润CAGR 分别为 市值 (US$mn) 6,058 21%/16%。 当前发行数量(百万股) 872 • 维持买入评级，下调DCF（WACC： 9.8%）目标价至71.03 元。 三个月平均日交易額 121 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) 72 2023 年业绩低于我们预期：公司发布年报，2023 年实现营收73.84 亿元，同比增长4%； 主要股东 (%) 实现归母净利润20.25 亿元，同比增长1%。2023 年业绩低于我们的预期，主要是因为新 叶小平 20 冠业务及下游市场需求减少。其中4Q23 实现营业收入17.34 亿元，同比增长3%；归母净 香 ...