Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating to "Hold" with a target price of HK$2.70, reflecting a 56% reduction from the previous target price of HK$6.10 [1][3]. Core Views - The investment logic regarding the replicability of the "Tai Er" business model faces challenges, leading to uncertainties in future development [1][3]. - The estimated market capitalization of Jiumaojiu Group is likely between HK$25 billion and HK$55 billion, indicating that the current risk-reward ratio is not clearly defined [1][3]. - The report anticipates a significant decline in the company's performance, with a projected 54.6% drop in net profit for 2024 [1][3]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - Current rating is "Hold" with a target price of HK$2.70, down from HK$6.10 [1][3]. Financial Performance - The report projects a 2024 revenue of RMB 6.49 billion, a decrease of 6.7% from previous estimates [1][10]. - The expected net profit for 2024 is RMB 240 million, reflecting a 54.6% reduction [1][10]. - The 2025 EPS is revised down to RMB 0.25, a 40.4% decrease from earlier forecasts [1][10]. Market Analysis - The report highlights that the average market capitalization of Jiumaojiu is estimated to be around HK$40 billion, with a current market value of HK$38 billion [1][9]. - The sensitivity analysis indicates that under different scenarios, the market value could range from HK$25 billion to HK$55 billion [1][9]. Business Model Challenges - The report notes that the business model of "Tai Er" is facing replicability challenges, which may hinder future growth [1][3]. - The company has adjusted its store opening guidance for 2024 from 35-40 stores to 25 stores, indicating a more cautious approach [1][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with an updated target price of RMB 251.30, up from RMB 244.10 [1][10]. Core Insights - The company's gross margin continued to improve, reaching 26.6% in Q2 2024, while the energy storage business experienced rapid growth with a year-on-year shipment increase of 45%, accounting for nearly 25% of total shipments [1][2]. - Despite a 12% year-on-year decline in revenue for the first half of 2024, net profit increased by 10.4% to RMB 228.6 billion, indicating effective cost management and a strong market position [1][8]. - The company achieved a domestic market share of 46.7% in the power battery sector and is actively expanding its overseas market presence [1][2]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 1,667.7 billion, a decrease of 12% year-on-year, while the gross margin improved by 5 percentage points to 26.5% [1][7]. - The net profit for Q2 2024 was RMB 123.6 billion, reflecting a 13.4% increase compared to the previous quarter [1][7]. - The company’s operating cash flow for the first half of 2024 was RMB 447.1 billion, with cash on hand reaching RMB 2.55 billion [1][7]. Performance Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted downwards to RMB 385.6 billion, RMB 431.0 billion, and RMB 473.1 billion, respectively, while net profit estimates have been increased by 3.0%, 2.3%, and 0.6% for the same periods [2][8]. - The gross margin projections for 2024-2026 have been raised by 2.2, 2.0, and 1.7 percentage points, respectively, indicating improved profitability despite revenue declines [8][9]. Market Position - The company holds a global market share of 37.5% in the power battery sector as of May 2024, solidifying its leading position in the industry [2][8]. - The company has signed agreements with major partners, including Rolls-Royce, to enhance its presence in the energy storage market in Europe and North America [2][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (700 HK) with a target price of HK$485.00, representing a potential upside of 26% from the current price of HK$384.80 [1][11][13]. Core Insights - The strong performance of "Dungeon & Fighter" and Supercell is driving accelerated growth in gaming revenue, leading to an upward revision of revenue forecasts for 2Q24 and 2024 [1][8]. - Tencent is focusing on high-quality growth with sustainable margin expansion, which is expected to support profitability [1][8]. - The report anticipates a 7% and 9% year-on-year growth in gaming revenue for 2Q24 and 2024, respectively, up from previous estimates of 5% [1][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 664,448 million, with a year-on-year growth of 0% [9]. - The expected EPS for 2024E is RMB 21.34, reflecting a 4% increase from the previous estimate [9]. - The report forecasts a net profit margin of 29.9% for 2024, an increase of approximately 710 basis points year-on-year [9]. Gaming Segment - The gaming segment is expected to generate RMB 100 billion in revenue from "Dungeon & Fighter" in 2024, with a projected year-on-year growth of 7% for 2Q24 and 9% for 2024 [1][8]. - The report highlights that "Dungeon & Fighter" ranked third in the iOS bestseller list in China during May and June [1][8]. Advertising and Other Segments - The report slightly lowers the advertising revenue growth forecast for 2Q24 to 18%, down from 22%, due to a high base effect from the previous year [1][8]. - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue is expected to grow by 4% year-on-year, reflecting a slight downward adjustment from previous estimates [1][8]. Valuation - The SOTP valuation for the gaming segment is adjusted to HK$1.5 trillion, corresponding to an 18x P/E for 2024 [1][14]. - The advertising segment's valuation remains at HK$1.2 trillion, based on a 20x P/E for 2024 [1][15]. - The report indicates a total company valuation of HK$5.169 trillion after accounting for various segments and net cash [1][36].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company with a target price raised to HK$41.46, reflecting a 10% upside potential from the current price of HK$37.65 [1][4]. Core Insights - The company has reported strong preliminary earnings for 1H24, with revenue and net profit both showing significant growth, attributed to successful overseas expansion and improved operational leverage [1][2]. - Revenue is expected to grow by no less than 55% year-on-year, while net profit (excluding fair value changes of financial assets) is projected to increase by no less than 90% [1][2]. - The company’s overseas market revenue is anticipated to grow by 241% year-on-year, driven by a substantial increase in store count and strong same-store sales growth [1][4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E have been adjusted upwards by 16.5%, 17.7%, and 18.8% respectively, reflecting better-than-expected overseas expansion and domestic sales [2][4]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E have been increased by 41.1%, 46.4%, and 56.1% respectively, due to improved cost control and operational efficiency [2][4]. - The adjusted EPS for 2024E is projected at RMB 1.50, increasing to RMB 1.86 for 2025E and RMB 2.21 for 2026E [1][2]. Valuation - The valuation method used is the P/E ratio, with a new target multiple of 20.3 times the 2025 P/E, which is a premium of 20% over the average P/E of international peers [4]. - The report indicates that the current trading multiple of 18.4 times the 2025 P/E is reasonable compared to industry peers [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the automotive and auto parts industry [1]. Core Insights - In June, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) rose to 48.1%, with sales expected to remain stable in July due to favorable conditions for autonomous driving [1][2]. - The sales of power and energy storage batteries showed steady growth, with energy storage battery exports increasing by 106.7% year-on-year in the first half of the year [2]. - The report maintains a forecast of 10 million NEV sales for the year, supported by new policies and advancements in autonomous driving technology [2]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicle Sales - In June, NEV retail sales reached 856,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 28.7% and a month-on-month increase of 6.5%, with a penetration rate of 48.1% [1]. - Cumulative NEV wholesale and retail sales from January to June were 4.611 million and 4.107 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 30.1% and 33.0% [1]. Battery Sales and Exports - In June, the total sales of power and energy storage batteries were 92.2 GWh, with a month-on-month increase of 51.2% [2]. - Cumulative battery exports in the first half of the year reached 73.7 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 18.6% [2]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that traditional fuel vehicles may see an increase in export ratios due to structural changes in the market, while NEVs are expected to benefit from new autonomous driving regulations [2]. - The top five NEV models sold in June included the Model Y, BYD Qin Plus, and BYD Sea Gull, with sales figures indicating a competitive market landscape [1][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports with a target price of HK$101.85, reflecting a 4% decrease from the previous target price of HK$105.55 [1][3]. Core Insights - Anta Sports is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 10.4% year-on-year in 1H24, with net profit attributable to shareholders benefiting from the listing of Amer Sports, projected to increase by 51.1% [3]. - The Anta brand is anticipated to meet its annual guidance, while the FILA brand may face some pressure [3]. - The report forecasts a revenue increase for Anta Sports of 11.8% and a net profit increase of 25.6% for the full year 2024, reaching RMB 697.2 billion and RMB 128.6 billion, respectively [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 69.723 billion, with a net profit of RMB 12.859 billion, translating to an EPS of RMB 4.54 [5][6]. - The report adjusts the revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 downwards by 0.8%, 1.4%, and 2.0%, respectively, while net profit forecasts are adjusted upwards by 2.3% for 2024 and downwards for 2025 and 2026 [4][6]. - The expected P/E ratio for 2025 is maintained at 20 times, corresponding to the new target price of HK$101.85, which still offers a 48% upside potential from the current price of HK$69.00 [2][4]. Brand Performance - The Anta brand is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 12.5% in 2H24 and 10.0% for the full year 2024, driven by successful product launches and marketing strategies [3][4]. - FILA's revenue growth is expected to slow down, with a forecast of 10.7% growth in 2H24 and 9.0% for the full year 2024, indicating potential challenges [4]. - Other brands under Anta are expected to see significant growth, with a projected revenue increase of 35%-40% in 1H24 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HK$6.05, reflecting a 10% decrease from the previous target price [1][3][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve revenue and net profit growth of 6.0% and 27.3% respectively in 2024, reaching RMB 15.2 billion and RMB 1.31 billion [2][3]. - The operational performance in Q2 2024 aligns with expectations, with a projected 10.3% year-on-year growth in both revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024 [1][2]. - The company is adapting to current consumer trends by emphasizing cost-effectiveness and increasing the supply of low-priced products online, which is expected to drive a 21% year-on-year growth in online revenue [2][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company anticipates a total revenue of RMB 15.2 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6.0% [2][3]. - The net profit is projected to reach RMB 1.31 billion, reflecting a 27.3% increase compared to the previous year [2][3]. - The report indicates that the company's overall revenue growth is expected to be 10.0% when excluding the impact of KP Global [2][3]. Operational Performance - In Q2 2024, the company's brand revenue is expected to grow approximately 10%, with online sales increasing by around 25% [1][2]. - The professional sports division is projected to see a revenue increase of 60.0% in the first half of 2024, driven by new store openings and strong same-store sales growth [1][2]. Financial Metrics - The report outlines a slight improvement in gross margin by 0.4 percentage points to 42.6% for 2024, attributed to better discount management [2][3]. - The company’s operating profit margin is expected to remain stable at 15.1% for the first half of 2024, with a net profit margin of 10.2% [1][2]. Valuation - The report adjusts revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 downwards by 2.8%, 4.6%, and 6.0% respectively, while net profit estimates are adjusted upwards by 2.0% for 2024 [3][8]. - The target price corresponds to a 10x P/E ratio for 2025, indicating a potential upside of 16% from the current stock price [3][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Li Ning (2331 HK) with a target price of HK$26.55, representing a 71% upside from the current price of HK$15.50 [1] Core Views - Li Ning's 1H24 revenue is expected to grow by 2.0% YoY to RMB 14.3 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline by 14.9% YoY to RMB 1.81 billion [1] - For the full year 2024, revenue and net profit are forecasted to grow by 5.2% and 5.1% YoY, reaching RMB 29.03 billion and RMB 3.35 billion, respectively [1] - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of 49.4% in 1H24, up 0.6 percentage points YoY, driven by improved discount rates [1] - Li Ning is focusing on expanding its product line in the RMB 399-599 price range and adopting a "one county, one strategy" approach to penetrate lower-tier cities [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 27.6 billion in 2023 to RMB 32.6 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 5.7% [1] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 3.19 billion in 2023 to RMB 4.02 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 8.1% [1] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to improve from 48.4% in 2023 to 50.0% in 2026 [2] Valuation - The target price of HK$26.55 implies a 17x 2025 P/E ratio [1] - Current valuation metrics show a 2024E P/E of 10.9x, P/B of 1.4x, and P/S of 1.3x [2] Industry Outlook - The report assigns an **Overweight** rating to the Consumer Durables & Apparel sector, indicating expected outperformance relative to the market [1] Key Drivers - Li Ning's running shoe matrix is performing well, with continued iterations of flagship products like Jueying and Dilu [1] - The company is adjusting its basketball shoe offerings to cater to the consumption downgrade trend, introducing products priced between RMB 499-699 [1] - Channel reforms are underway, with a focus on expanding in lower-tier cities through tailored strategies [1]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of Tesla (TSLA US) to "Buy" with a target price of US$282.13 [1][2][15] Core Views - The electric vehicle (EV) delivery volume and energy storage installation in Q2 2024 exceeded market expectations, leading to an upgrade in the rating [1][2] - The fundamentals of the EV business are improving, with potential valuation increases for FSD, Robotaxi, and robotics businesses [2][8] - The report anticipates continued strong performance in energy storage installations in Q3 and Q4 2024 [1][2] Summary by Sections Delivery and Installation Performance - Q2 2024 EV delivery reached 443,956 units, a year-on-year decline of 4.8% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.8% [1] - Energy storage installation reached 9.4 GWh, representing a year-on-year growth of 157.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase compared to the average of 3.7 GWh in 2023 [1][8] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been raised by 6.5%, 5.8%, and 5.5% to US$102.31 billion, US$122.67 billion, and US$146.64 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -5.7%, 19.9%, and 19.5% [2][8] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for 2024-2026 have been increased by 7.9%, 6.5%, and 5.9% to US$11.93 billion, US$15.66 billion, and US$19.61 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.7%, 31.3%, and 25.2% [2][8] Valuation Adjustments - The P/E ratio for Tesla's automotive business has been adjusted to 90 times for 2024, up from the previous estimate of 50 times, while the energy storage business valuation has been raised to 10 times P/S from 5 times P/S [2][15] - The new target price of US$282.13 reflects these adjustments, significantly up from the previous target of US$151.31 [2][15] Market Catalysts - Key catalysts for the stock price increase include the approval of Elon Musk's US$56 billion compensation plan and the introduction of favorable financing policies for Model 3 and Model Y in China [2][8] - Anticipation of the Robotaxi launch on August 8 is expected to further enhance market sentiment [2][8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the pharmaceutical industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the assisted reproduction and weight loss drug sectors, particularly GLP-1 targeted drugs, are expected to benefit from policy support. It anticipates that the industry's performance will grow by over 10% in 2024, leading to a valuation recovery [1][2]. - Recent policy developments, such as the inclusion of assisted reproduction projects in medical insurance in Jiangsu, are seen as favorable for industry growth. The report notes that various regions are adopting similar policies, which could enhance the sector's development [2][19]. - The report emphasizes that negative factors affecting the industry in recent years, such as volume-based procurement and pandemic disruptions, are expected to dissipate, contributing to a rebound in the medical sector's performance [2][14]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - During the period from June 1 to June 30, 2024, 32 companies in the Shenwan Pharmaceutical A-share market saw stock price increases, with the top three sub-industries being chemical preparations (7 companies), traditional Chinese medicine (6 companies), and raw materials (5 companies) [5][9]. - In the same period, 23 companies in the Shenwan Pharmaceutical H-share market experienced stock price increases, with the leading sub-industries being other biological products (8 companies), chemical preparations (6 companies), and raw materials, medical consumables, and pharmaceutical distribution (2 companies each) [5][9]. Valuation Analysis - The report indicates that the average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the Shenwan Pharmaceutical A-share index is currently at 27x, which is a 21% discount compared to the historical average over the past five years [14][17]. - The report provides a detailed breakdown of the current and historical P/E ratios for various sub-sectors within the pharmaceutical industry, highlighting significant discounts in areas such as biological products and medical services [17][24]. Policy Developments - Key policies impacting the pharmaceutical industry include the inclusion of assisted reproduction services in medical insurance and initiatives aimed at improving public awareness of weight management, which are expected to stimulate growth in the weight loss drug sector [2][19]. - The report notes that the National Health Commission and other departments have launched a "Weight Management Year" initiative, which aims to address the rising issues of obesity and related health risks in China [2][19]. Company News - Notable company developments include Novo Nordisk's approval for its weight management drug in China, and significant clinical trial results from Innovent Biologics regarding their GLP-1 receptor agonist [21][22]. - The report also mentions strategic partnerships and agreements among various pharmaceutical companies, indicating ongoing innovation and collaboration within the industry [21][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report lists several companies with "Buy" ratings, including Hansoh Pharmaceutical, BeiGene, and Innovent Biologics, citing their strong growth potential and innovative product pipelines as key reasons for the recommendations [22][24].