2024 年3 月19 日 高端制造: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 宁德时代 (300750 CH, 买入, 目标价: RMB236.60) 2023 年分红超预期，全球动力电池龙头地位稳固 目标价: RMB236.60 当前股价: RMB190.96 • 宁德时代宣告221 亿元分红，超市场预期；全年毛利率同比提升2.7 个百分点至 股价上行/下行空间 +24% 22.9%； 52周最高/最低价 (RMB) 251.33/140.40 市值 (US$mn) 116,728 • 2023 年全球市占率达到36.8%；看好2024 年在市场份额和业绩上进一步拉开与同行 当前发行数量(百万股) 4,399 的差距； 三 (U个 S$月 mn平 ) 均日交易額 642 • 维持“买入”评级，目标价调整至236.60 元（对应22 倍2024 年P/E）。 流通盘占比 (%) 88 2023 年盈利大幅提升，分红比例超预期。根据宁德时代2023 年业绩报告，公司4Q23 实 主要股东 (%) 厦门瑞庭投资有限公司 23 现营业收入1,062.4 亿元，同比下滑10.2%，环比增长0.8%；毛利率为25.7% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec (603259 CH) with a target price of RMB 66.31, reflecting a 30% upside potential from the current price of RMB 50.81 [1][14]. Core Insights - WuXi AppTec's 2023 performance met expectations, with revenue and net profit reaching RMB 40.34 billion and RMB 9.61 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 2.5% and 9.0% [4][11]. - The company has maintained a 30% cash dividend payout ratio, distributing RMB 9.8 per 10 shares in 2023, totaling RMB 2.88 billion [4][11]. - The TIDES new molecule platform within the chemical business segment is expected to drive long-term revenue growth, with a significant increase in orders and revenue [5][11]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, WuXi AppTec achieved revenue of RMB 40.34 billion and a net profit of RMB 9.61 billion, with active clients increasing by over 1,200 to more than 6,000 [4][11]. - The company forecasts 2024 revenue to be between RMB 38.3 billion and RMB 40.5 billion, with a non-IFRS net profit margin expected to remain stable at approximately 26.9% [4][11]. - The projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue and net profit from 2023 to 2026 is estimated at 7.5% and 7.8%, respectively [4][11]. Business Segment Analysis - The chemical business segment generated RMB 29.17 billion in revenue in 2023, with a 36% increase when excluding COVID-19 related projects [5][11]. - The testing segment reported revenue of RMB 6.54 billion, reflecting a 14% year-on-year increase, while the biological segment achieved RMB 2.55 billion, up 3% [5][11]. - The TIDES platform's revenue grew by 64% year-on-year to RMB 3.41 billion, with a 226% increase in orders [5][11]. Adjustments and Forecasts - The report has adjusted the target price down by 53% from RMB 140.27 to RMB 66.31 due to uncertainties in U.S. policies affecting revenue forecasts for the chemical and testing segments [1][14]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been reduced by 24% and 30%, respectively, with net profit and EPS estimates also lowered by 21% and 28% [12][14]. - The updated financial projections for 2024 include revenue of RMB 39.53 billion, net profit of RMB 9.47 billion, and EPS of RMB 3.19 [12][14].

2024 年4 月8 日 医药: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 泰格医药 (300347 CH, 买入, 目标价: RMB71.03) 新冠相关业务影响逐步出清，加快新兴业务发展 目标价: RMB71.03 当前股价: RMB50.24 • 2023 年业绩低于我们预期，毛利率承压。 股价上行/下行空间 +41% 52周最高/最低价 (RMB) 111.92/36.12 • 新冠相关业务影响逐渐出清；我们预测2023A-26E 营收/ 归母净利润CAGR 分别为 市值 (US$mn) 6,058 21%/16%。 当前发行数量(百万股) 872 • 维持买入评级，下调DCF（WACC： 9.8%）目标价至71.03 元。 三个月平均日交易額 121 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) 72 2023 年业绩低于我们预期：公司发布年报，2023 年实现营收73.84 亿元，同比增长4%； 主要股东 (%) 实现归母净利润20.25 亿元，同比增长1%。2023 年业绩低于我们的预期，主要是因为新 叶小平 20 冠业务及下游市场需求减少。其中4Q23 实现营业收入17.34 亿元，同比增长3%；归母净 香 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tong Ren Tang (600085 CH) with a target price of RMB 57.60, indicating a potential upside of 40% from the current price of RMB 41.27 [1][2][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to maintain steady growth over the next three years, with projected revenue and net profit CAGR of 11% and 19% respectively from 2023A to 2026E [1][4]. - The target price has been adjusted down by 19% due to lowered earnings forecasts for 2024 and 2025, reflecting a more conservative outlook [5][16]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, Tong Ren Tang achieved revenue of RMB 17.861 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16%, and a net profit of RMB 1.669 billion, up 17% [4][9]. - The company's gross margin decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 47.3%, while the net profit margin remained stable at 9.3% [4][9]. - The pharmaceutical manufacturing segment reported revenue of RMB 11.079 billion, growing 13% year-on-year, while the pharmaceutical commerce segment saw revenue of RMB 10.246 billion, a 21% increase [10][20]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been reduced by 4%, with corresponding adjustments to gross profit and net profit estimates, reflecting a 9% decrease in EPS for both years [13][15]. - The updated earnings per share (EPS) estimates are RMB 1.54 for 2024E, RMB 1.81 for 2025E, and RMB 2.05 for 2026E [15][20]. Valuation Metrics - The target price corresponds to a 2024 P/E ratio of 37x, which is above the average P/E of comparable companies at 20x, justifying a premium valuation for the leading OTC traditional Chinese medicine company [5][16][18].

2024 年4 月3 日 医药: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 云南白药 (000538 CH, 持有, 目标价: RMB54.20) 2023 年营收稳健增长，新业务表现有待观察 目标价: RMB54.20 当前股价: RMB50.74 • 我们预测，2023A-26E 营收/ 归母净利润CAGR 为6%/9%。 股价上行/下行空间 +7% 52周最高/最低价 (RMB) 59.90/44.88 • 2023 年核心产品保持高速增长，健康品净利率承压。 市值 (US$mn) 12,611 • 维持持有评级，下调DCF 目标价至54.20 元。 当前发行数量(百万股) 1,797 三个月平均日交易額 56 2023 年业绩符合预期，分红率超90%：云南白药发布年报，2023 年，实现营收391.11 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) 47 亿元，同比增长7%；实现归母净利润40.94 亿元，同比增长36%。净利润增速大幅超过 主要股东 (%) 营收增速主要原因为2022 年为低基数。其中4Q23 实现营收94.22 亿元，同比减少2%； 云南省国资委 25 实现归母净亏损0.30 亿元，同比减少10 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanghai Pharmaceuticals-A with a target price of RMB 22.37, down from the previous target of RMB 23.63, indicating a potential upside of 27% from the current price of RMB 17.62 [1][6][14]. Core Insights - The company experienced steady revenue growth in 2023, achieving revenue of RMB 263 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12%. However, the net profit of RMB 3.768 billion fell short of expectations, declining by 33% year-on-year [1][2]. - The pharmaceutical distribution segment showed strong performance with revenue of RMB 233.76 billion, up 14% year-on-year, while the pharmaceutical manufacturing segment saw a slight decline in revenue [1][2]. - The innovative drug pipeline is entering a harvest phase, with several new drugs in various stages of clinical trials and applications [2][14]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the company reported a net profit of RMB 3.768 billion, down 33% from the previous year, with a corresponding EPS of RMB 1.02, a decrease of 35% [1][8]. - The operating cash flow for 2023 was RMB 5.232 billion, reflecting a 10% increase year-on-year [1][8]. - The report forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue and net profit of 11% and 19%, respectively, from 2023 to 2026 [1][2]. Segment Performance - The pharmaceutical distribution segment generated revenue of RMB 233.76 billion, with a gross margin of 6.3%, down 0.27 percentage points year-on-year [1][9]. - The pharmaceutical manufacturing segment reported revenue of RMB 26.26 billion, a decrease of 2% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 58.5% [2][9]. - The retail segment achieved revenue of RMB 9.11 billion, up 10% year-on-year, but with a declining gross margin of 12.0% [9]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - Due to lower-than-expected performance in 2023, the report has revised down the earnings forecasts for 2024 and 2025, with EPS estimates adjusted to RMB 1.56 and RMB 1.66, representing decreases of 18% and 19% respectively [3][11][13].

2024 年4 月3 日 医药: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 翰森制药 (3692 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$19.91) 自主研发和 BD 合作推动公司业绩稳健增长 目标价: HK$19.91 当前股价: HK$15.48 • 创新药收入增长和对外授权收入使得公司2023 年利润增速快速增长。 股价上行/下行空间 +29% 52周最高/最低价 (HK$) 17.24/9.41 • 自主研发和BD 合作形成差异化管线布局。 市值 (US$mn) 11,701 • 维持买入，将DCF 目标价上调至HK$19.91 (WACC: 9.1%)。 当前发行数量(百万股) 5,916 三个月平均日交易額 11 2023 年创新药收入保持快速增长：根据公司公告，2023 实现营收/ 归母净利润 101.4 亿 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) 41 元 / 32.8 亿元，同比+7.7%/ 26.9%。其中，医药产品的销售收入为94 亿元，同比+1.1%。 主要股东 (%) 创新药收入同比增加37.1%至68.7 亿元，占公司总收入的比例上升至67.9%（2022 年为 Stellar Infinity ...

2024 年4 月3 日 医药: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 上海医药-A (601607 CH, 买入, 目标价: RMB22.37) 2023 年营收稳健增长；创新药迎来收获期 目标价: RMB22.37 当前股价: RMB17.62 • 2023 年营收稳健增长，2023 年股息率为2.1%（最近三年平均为2.4%）。 股价上行/下行空间 +27% 52周最高/最低价 (RMB) 23.98/15.36 • 医药商业：CSO、疫苗、器械大健康等业务为未来增长点；医药工业：创新药管线进 市值 (US$mn) 11,031 入收获期。 当前发行数量(百万股) 2,842 • 维持买入评级，SOTP 目标价下调至22.37 元。 三个月平均日交易額 31 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) 68 2023 年营收稳健增长，净利润低于我们预测：公司发布年报，2023 年实现营收2,630 亿 主要股东 (%) 元，同比增长12%；归母净利润37.68 亿元，同比下降33%；扣非归母净利润35.96 亿 香港中央结算 19 元，同比下降16%。其中4Q23 实现营收628 亿元，同比9%；归母净亏损28 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 20.40, down from the previous target of RMB 24.60 [1][9]. Core Insights - The automotive safety business has completed its integration, and the report is optimistic about sustained growth in performance. The overseas automotive safety business continued to reduce losses in Q4 2023, with an annual gross margin exceeding expectations at 15.1% [1][2]. - In Q4 2023, new orders reached RMB 14.7 billion, with expectations for orders from German automotive companies in 2024 [2][7]. - The report projects a revenue adjustment for 2024-2025, with expected revenues of RMB 643.0 billion and RMB 728.4 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 15.4% and 13.3% respectively [7][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, the company achieved revenue of RMB 144.2 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.6% and a year-on-year increase of 0.9%. The gross margin for Q4 was 18.4%, up 6.6 percentage points year-on-year [1][6]. - For the full year 2023, the company reported revenue of RMB 557.3 billion, an 11.9% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 15.1%, up 3.1 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 10.8 billion, a significant increase of 174.8% year-on-year [1][5]. Order Book and Future Projections - The total new orders for 2023 amounted to approximately RMB 737 billion, with new energy orders accounting for RMB 442 billion, or about 60% of the total. The company expects to fully turn around its North American automotive safety business in 2024, further enhancing profitability [2][7]. - The report introduces 2026 performance forecasts, estimating revenues of RMB 786.7 billion and net profits of RMB 22.7 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 8.0% and 11.9% respectively [7][8]. Valuation Adjustments - The report slightly lowers the company's 2024 P/E valuation to 20 times, down from 23 times, reflecting the completed integration of the automotive safety business and the expectation of steady profit growth in 2024 [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HK$29.83, reflecting a potential upside of 49% from the current price of HK$19.96 [2][4][12]. Core Insights - The company's 2023 performance was slightly below expectations, with revenue and net profit growing by 8% and 6% year-on-year, respectively. The gross margin decreased by 0.46 percentage points to 8.13% [2][6]. - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend yield, projected at 4.2% for 2023, supported by robust free cash flow [2][12]. - Future revenue growth is anticipated from the distribution business, with a stable growth forecast for pharmaceutical distribution and medical device distribution [2][3]. Financial Data Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 672.5 billion in 2024, RMB 746.3 billion in 2025, and RMB 824.9 billion in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% from 2023 to 2026 [1][10]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: The net profit is expected to grow from RMB 9.1 billion in 2023 to RMB 13.0 billion by 2026, indicating a CAGR of 13% [1][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to increase from RMB 2.90 in 2023 to RMB 4.17 in 2026 [1][10]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 7.0x in 2023 to 4.4x in 2026, indicating a potentially undervalued stock [1][10]. Segment Performance - **Pharmaceutical Distribution**: Revenue from pharmaceutical distribution is expected to reach RMB 485.2 billion in 2024, growing steadily [17]. - **Medical Device Distribution**: Projected revenue for medical device distribution is RMB 149.7 billion in 2024, showing consistent growth despite a slowdown compared to previous years [17]. - **Retail Pharmacy**: Retail pharmacy revenue is forecasted to grow to RMB 48.0 billion in 2024, driven by the increasing demand for specialty drugs [17]. Adjustments and Forecast Changes - The report has adjusted the revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025 down by 3% due to the company's 2023 performance being slightly below expectations [10][12]. - The gross profit and net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have also been revised down by 8% and 9%, respectively [10][12]. Market Comparison - The company's current P/E ratio of 6.6x is lower than the average of comparable companies, suggesting potential for price appreciation [14][15].