Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating to Guoxuan High-Tech with a target price of RMB 16.70 [1][5] Core Views - Guoxuan High-Tech delivered 45.3 GWh of power and energy storage batteries in 2023, with net profit attributable to the parent company increasing by 201.3% YoY [1] - The company's overseas business is expected to account for 60% of total revenue in 2024, up from 30% in 2023 [1][5] - The report downgrades the target price to RMB 16.70 and the rating to "Hold" due to intensified competition in the domestic battery industry and a higher PEG ratio compared to industry peers [5] Financial Performance - In 2023, Guoxuan High-Tech achieved revenue of RMB 31.605 billion, a 37.1% YoY increase, with a gross margin of 16.9% [1] - The company's 1Q24 revenue was RMB 7.508 billion, with a gross margin of 17.9%, up 0.9 percentage points QoQ [1][2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company in 1Q24 was RMB 69.1 million, down 8.6% YoY and 89.3% QoQ [2] Profit Forecast - The report lowers the 2024-2025 revenue forecasts by 32.0% and 31.2% to RMB 37.805 billion and RMB 47.252 billion, respectively [3] - The 2024-2025 net profit forecasts are reduced by 40.2% and 43.1% to RMB 1.492 billion and RMB 2.127 billion, respectively [3] - For 2026, the company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 61.471 billion and net profit of RMB 2.945 billion [3] Valuation - The report assigns a 20x P/E ratio for 2024, slightly above the historical average of 18x, resulting in a target price of RMB 16.70 [5] - Guoxuan High-Tech's 2024 PEG ratio is 0.36, higher than the industry average of 0.32 [5] Industry Outlook - The downstream new energy vehicle industry is experiencing a price war, leading to intensified competition in the domestic battery market [5] - The company's overseas business expansion, particularly in the US and Europe, is expected to drive future growth [1][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price raised to RMB 244.10 from RMB 236.60 [2][11]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2024 earnings exceeded expectations, with a gross margin of 26.4% and a net margin of 13.2%, reflecting year-on-year increases of 5.1 and 2.2 percentage points respectively [2][3]. - Despite a decline in revenue due to falling raw material prices, the company improved its cash flow significantly, achieving operating cash flow of RMB 283.6 billion, a 35% year-on-year increase [2][3]. - The company captured a domestic market share of 48.9% in the power battery segment, benefiting from the launch of new models [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2024 revenue was RMB 797.7 billion, down 10.4% year-on-year and 24.9% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to lower sales prices from raw material price declines [2][8]. - The gross profit for Q1 2024 was RMB 21.072 billion, with a gross margin of 26.4%, up from 21.3% in Q1 2023 [8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 10.51 billion, representing a 7.0% year-on-year increase [8]. Earnings Forecast - The report maintains revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 but raises gross margin estimates by 1.7, 1.0, and 0.6 percentage points to 24.0% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3][9]. - The net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are adjusted upwards by 3.2%, 3.0%, and 0.8% to RMB 488.1 billion, RMB 578.2 billion, and RMB 617.3 billion respectively, indicating year-on-year growth of 10.6%, 18.5%, and 6.8% [3][9]. Valuation - The report maintains a valuation of 22 times earnings for 2024, reflecting the company's strong market position and cash flow capabilities [11]. - The target price of RMB 244.10 suggests a potential upside of 24% from the current share price of RMB 197.14 [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876 HK) with a target price of HK$18.90, indicating a potential upside of 73% from the current price of HK$10.94 [1][2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that high sales base from 1Q23 in the China and Korea markets may pressure Budweiser APAC's sales performance in 1H24, but the overall outlook for the year remains unchanged [4][5]. - Management expects a high single-digit growth in average selling prices in 1Q24, which will drive further gross margin expansion and maintain normalized EBITDA margin year-on-year [4][5]. - The report emphasizes that despite potential short-term challenges, the company's product upgrade strategy remains intact, and net profit is expected to accelerate in the second half of 2024 [5][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024E are set at US$7,116 million, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, while 2025E revenue is projected at US$7,631 million, reflecting a 7.2% increase [6][8]. - The expected EPS for 2024E is US$0.08, with a growth forecast to US$0.09 in 2025E and US$0.10 in 2026E [1][6]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including a projected EBITDA of US$1,525 million for 2024E, increasing to US$1,758 million in 2025E [6][7]. Market Performance - The report notes that Budweiser APAC's stock has a current market capitalization of US$18,502 million, with a three-month average daily trading volume of US$28 million [2][4]. - The stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected at 30.1 times for 2024, which is lower than the historical average P/E over the past three years [5][6]. Sales Performance - The report anticipates a 3% year-on-year decline in sales volume for 1Q24, primarily due to the high sales base from 1Q23, with specific declines of 4.4% in Eastern Asia and 2.9% in Western Asia [4][5]. - The average selling price is expected to increase by 6.2% in 1Q24, contributing to a gross margin expansion of 0.9 percentage points [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the pharmaceutical industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Chinese pharmaceutical industry is expected to see revenue and profit growth of approximately 10% in 2024, driven by a recovery in demand for medical services and a favorable regulatory environment [2][20]. - A significant government initiative for large-scale equipment updates in the medical sector is anticipated to benefit four key areas: medical imaging, radiation therapy, telemedicine, and surgical robots [2][20]. - The ongoing crackdown on corruption and strict regulation of the medical insurance fund is expected to continue in 2024, impacting the pharmaceutical sector [2][20]. Summary by Sections Price Changes and Valuation Analysis (March 10, 2024 - April 10, 2024) - During the specified period, 251 out of 461 A-share pharmaceutical companies saw their stock prices increase, with the highest gains in the chemical preparations (71 companies), traditional Chinese medicine (43 companies), and raw materials (31 companies) [6][11]. - In the H-share market, 39 out of 87 companies experienced price increases, with the most significant gains in other biological products (10 companies) and raw materials (6 companies) [6][11]. Industry Policies - The report discusses several key policies affecting the pharmaceutical industry, including a government meeting focused on addressing illegal activities in the medical insurance fund, which emphasizes ongoing regulatory scrutiny [20]. - The report notes that a recent price reduction initiative for medical consumables in Liaoning province is indicative of a broader trend towards national price coordination in medical supplies [20]. Company News - The report highlights significant corporate developments, including Genmab's acquisition of a biotech company for $1.8 billion, marking a record for domestic biotech acquisitions by foreign firms [22]. - Notable clinical trial results from Innovent Biologics indicate a high efficacy rate for a new treatment for advanced NK/T-cell lymphoma, which could drive future growth for the company [22]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a detailed valuation analysis, indicating that the TTM P/E ratio for the pharmaceutical sector is currently at 25x, which is a 25% discount compared to the historical average [15][18]. - Specific sub-sectors within the pharmaceutical industry, such as chemical drugs and traditional Chinese medicine, are highlighted with their respective TTM P/E ratios and historical comparisons [18]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Hansoh Pharmaceutical and BeiGene, citing their innovative product pipelines and strong market positions as key growth drivers [23][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer (291 HK) with a target price of HK$39.50, down from HK$42.00, reflecting a 6% decrease [5][10][11]. Core Views - The outlook for 2024 remains optimistic, driven by cost reductions and ongoing product upgrade strategies, which are expected to enhance both profit margins and net profits in the beer business [5][6]. - The white liquor segment is anticipated to resume healthy growth, contributing to improved operational leverage [5]. - The beer business showed a solid performance in 2023, with revenue growth of 4.5%, attributed to a 0.5% increase in sales volume and a 4.0% rise in selling prices [5][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 40,980 million, with an expected increase to RMB 43,463 million in 2025 and RMB 46,090 million in 2026 [7][14]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to reach RMB 6,204 million in 2024, increasing to RMB 7,101 million in 2025 and RMB 8,067 million in 2026 [7][14]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at RMB 1.91, with further growth to RMB 2.19 in 2025 and RMB 2.49 in 2026 [7][14]. Business Segment Insights - The beer business is expected to see a gross margin increase to 43.5% in 2024, following a 1.7 percentage point rise in 2023, driven by product upgrades and declining raw material costs [5][6]. - The white liquor business, which had a gross margin of 44% in 2023, is projected to improve its operating profit margin significantly over the next few years, from 6.3% in 2023 to 11.0% in 2024, 18.0% in 2025, and 23.0% in 2026 [6][8]. Valuation - The target price adjustment to HK$39.50 corresponds to an 11.0x EV/EBITDA multiple for 2024, reflecting a mid-range valuation compared to global beer peers and domestic liquor companies [10][11]. - The current stock price offers an attractive entry point, trading at approximately 9.4x EV/EBITDA for 2024 and 16.1x P/E [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer with a target price of HK$101.00, slightly down from the previous HK$101.58 [1][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that despite a significant increase in sales and distribution expenses in Q4 2023, the profit margin expansion trend is expected to continue into 2024, driven by product upgrades and a decrease in the sales and distribution expense ratio [1][2][4]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected at RMB 40.87 billion, which is 7.7% lower than previous forecasts due to increased brand investment following negative news in November 2023 [1][3]. - The report highlights that the average selling price of beer increased by 6.8% year-on-year in 2023, while sales volume decreased by 0.8%, indicating a shift towards higher-end products [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was RMB 31.55 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%. The projected revenue for 2024 is RMB 33.40 billion, maintaining the same growth rate [2][7]. - The gross profit margin for 2023 was 34.0%, expected to rise to 36.1% in 2024, reflecting ongoing improvements in product mix and cost management [2][10]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at RMB 3.64, down from RMB 3.82 previously forecasted, indicating a 5% decrease [1][3]. Valuation - The report uses a 15x adjusted EV/EBITDA multiple for valuation, which is higher than the current multiples of 9.0x for Chinese beer companies and 12.8x for liquor companies, reflecting the company's positive revenue structure changes and profit margin improvements [4][5]. - The target price of HK$101.00 is based on updated earnings forecasts and a revised exchange rate assumption of 1.10 for RMB/HKD [4][5]. Market Comparison - Qingdao Beer is compared with peers such as China Resources Beer and Budweiser APAC, showing a competitive position in terms of valuation metrics like P/E and EV/EBITDA [5]. - The report notes that Qingdao Beer trades at a P/E of 12.6x for 2024E, which is attractive given the expected growth in profit margins and revenue [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on ASMPT with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HK$150.00, representing a potential upside of 50% from the current price of HK$100.00 [1][8]. Core Insights - ASMPT is positioned as a leader in the thermocompression bonding (TCB) market, with the largest installed base globally and a strong technological advantage, making it the preferred solution for chip-to-substrate (C2S) and chip-to-wafer (C2W) bonding in AI and high-performance computing (HPC) applications [4][10]. - The advanced packaging segment has seen significant growth, contributing 22% of ASMPT's total sales in 2023, and is expected to drive valuation re-rating as the company shifts focus towards higher-margin, faster-growing advanced packaging solutions [6][8]. - The report highlights the importance of electrochemical deposition (ECD) equipment, which is increasingly recognized as a critical tool in advanced packaging, with potential for significant profit growth due to its high margins and strategic positioning in the market [5][20]. Summary by Sections Investment Overview - ASMPT is recognized as a key enabler in the TCB market, with its Firebird series being the leading technology for advanced packaging applications [4][9]. - The company has a strong customer base primarily consisting of foundries and integrated device manufacturers (IDMs), which supports its growth in advanced packaging [17]. Financial Analysis - The report forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17% for ASMPT's sales from 2023 to 2026, driven by increasing orders in semiconductor solutions [2][6]. - The gross margin is expected to improve gradually, supported by high R&D investments and operational leverage [2][6]. Valuation - The target price of HK$150.00 is based on a 25x P/E ratio for 2025, which is above the historical average since 2020 when advanced packaging began contributing significantly to revenue [8][6]. - The report suggests that ASMPT's current stock price is undervalued compared to its global peers, considering its strategic shift towards higher-value advanced packaging [8][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 27.77, indicating a potential upside of 46% from the current price of RMB 18.96 [1][2][16]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue and net profit CAGR of 13% and 17% respectively from 2023 to 2026, driven by an increase in plasma collection and blood product sales [4]. - The vaccine business has shown significant growth, with a revenue increase of 32% year-on-year in 2023, attributed to higher public demand for flu vaccines [5]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 30% over the next three years, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [4]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of RMB 53.41 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 18%, and a net profit of RMB 14.82 billion, up 38% from the previous year [4][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at RMB 0.93, with subsequent years showing a gradual increase to RMB 1.29 by 2026 [6][10]. - The gross profit margin improved to 39.3% in 2023, up from 31.5% in 2022, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [8][9]. Revenue Breakdown - Blood products generated revenue of RMB 29.26 billion in 2023, with a gross margin of 54.34% [4][9]. - The vaccine segment achieved revenue of RMB 24.05 billion, with a notable increase in the number of flu vaccine batches released [5][9]. - The company has expanded its plasma collection capabilities, with 32 plasma collection stations operational by the end of 2023, contributing to a 20% increase in plasma collection volume [4][5]. Adjustments and Forecasts - The revenue forecast for 2024 has been adjusted to RMB 6.05 billion, reflecting a 4% increase from previous estimates [13]. - The gross profit forecast for 2024 is now RMB 4.05 billion, up 5% from earlier projections [14]. - The report includes a new forecast for 2026, with expected revenue of RMB 7.67 billion [13][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao with a target price of HK$20.51, representing a potential upside of 16% from the current price of HK$17.64 [1][2][4]. Core Views - Haidilao is expected to achieve revenue and net profit growth of 11.4% and 15.1% respectively in 2024, reaching RMB 46.18 billion and RMB 5.18 billion [4][6]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the industry with verified earnings certainty and excellent dividend yield, justifying a valuation premium [4][6]. - The report highlights the improvement in table turnover rate to 3.8 times per day in 2023, indicating a recovery to pre-pandemic levels, and anticipates further growth in 2024 [4][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 46.18 billion, with a net profit of RMB 5.18 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 11.4% and 15.1% respectively [7][12]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at RMB 0.93, with subsequent years showing growth to RMB 1.04 in 2025 and RMB 1.15 in 2026 [6][7]. Market Position and Strategy - Haidilao's strategy includes opening 44 new stores in 2024 and enhancing customer retention and acquisition through targeted marketing strategies [4][5]. - The company has begun franchising, which is expected to contribute modestly to revenue in the short term, with projections of 25 franchise stores generating approximately RMB 2.2 billion in revenue [5][6]. Valuation and Market Capitalization - The report suggests a market capitalization range of HK$858 billion to HK$1,143 billion based on a P/E ratio of 15-20 times for 2024, with a midpoint of HK$1,000 billion compared to the current market cap of HK$983 billion [6][11]. - The adjusted target price of HK$20.51 corresponds to a 20 times P/E for 2024, reflecting a 15% reduction from the previous target price of HK$24.10 [2][6].

s 2024 年3 月13 日 证券研究报告 / 行业更新报告 汽车汽配 1-2 月新能源车销量实现稳健增长，3 月多款新车发布有望持 续刺激需求 • 尽管2 月销量受春节因素影响市有所下滑，但2024 年前两个月整体批发/零售销量同 比增长37.1%/27.7%。 • 前两个月动力+储能电池产销分别同比增长29.5%/26.4%，装机量同比增长32.0%。 • 3 月新能源车市价格战持续升级，新车及降价车型有望刺激3 月需求。 2 月销量受春节假期影响下滑，但1-2 月销量维持稳健增长。根据乘联会数据，2 月狭义 乘用车零售销量实现109.5 万辆，同环比减少21.2%/46.2%； 2 月狭义批发销量实现 129.5 万辆，同环比减少19.9%/38.0%。2 月新能源车零售销量达38.8 万辆，同环比减少 11.6%/41.9%，1-2 月累计渗透率提升至33.4%（1 月累计渗透率为32.6%）。我们认为 2 月整体车市销量同环比减少，主要系受春节因素以及社会面对3 月购车政策有所期待导 致的观望情绪所致。1-2 月累计国内新能源车批发和零售销量分别达到112.9/105.6 万辆， 同比增长37.1 ...