宏观经济评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2024 年 8 月 6 日 星期二 【宏观经济评论】 第一上海——美股宏观策略周报 李倩 +852-25321539 Chuck.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 政治事件 以色列和伊朗及其小弟们发生了一些冲突，伊朗发出了报复威胁，有很多人担心会 引发第三次世界大战。但我们认为伊朗很可能在夸大其词，毕竟它没有这样的实力， 对此不必太过担忧。 经济数据 7 月的制造业 PMI 指数为 46.8，远低于预期的 49，出现明显下降，就业和新订单 都走弱很多，市场也因此担心经济衰退。但仔细分析后发现，衰退的精确定义并不 容易达到，不能仅凭一两个数据就草率下结论，这很有可能只是经济放缓的征兆。 今年三季度 GDP 预期增速在 2%和 2.4%之间，四季度预计仍为正值。有经济衰退大 概率也是明年的事情。而且在美联储降息的预期下，明年上半年能否衰退仍是未知 数，现在定义还是为时过早。7 月的服务业服务业为 51.4，高于预期 51，高于前 值 48.8，也是不错，对所谓的衰退担忧是一个缓解。 7 月美国新增非农就业减少 ...

4 好未来（TAL） 更新报告 业绩维持高增长，加大投入或致利润短期承压。 业绩概览：公司 25 财年 1 季度（24 年 2 月-24 年 5 月）收入为 4.14 亿美元，同比增长 50.4%（美元计，下同），GAAP 归母净利润为 1140 万美元，去年同期为-4504 万美元；Non-GAAP 归母净利润 2961 万美 元，去年同期为-1952 万美元，同比扭亏。季度末公司现金+短期投资 为 33 亿美元，无银行负债。此外，公司递延收入为 6.4 亿，同比增 长 50%。 线下网点加速扩张，新业务高速增长：我们估算 25 财年 Q1 公司业务 结构:（1）教育培训业务占比约 75%，整体增长超 50%。其中素质教 育培训业务占比约 50%，同比增长约 80%，高中教培业务占比约 15%， 实现稳定增长。海外教培及其他业务总体占比较小。预估其线下教学 点增加超 400 间，对比 24 财年末 300-350 间，教学点扩张速度超预 期，为暑假旺季做储备。（2）内容解决方案占比约 25%，包含智能硬 件、实物出版、数字内容等，估算同比增长 50%+，主要受到学习机销 售收入驱动,预估学习机销售量达到 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to HKD 10.40, representing a potential upside of 35.1% from the current price of HKD 7.77 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company demonstrates strong profitability resilience despite a revenue decline, with a 6.4% year-on-year decrease in total revenue to HKD 11.81 billion in the first half of 2024, primarily due to falling float glass prices. However, the gross margin improved by 5.3 percentage points to 34.3%, benefiting from lower raw material and energy costs, as well as improved margins in the automotive glass segment. Net profit increased by 27.1% year-on-year to HKD 2.73 billion, driven by significantly reduced financial expenses and contributions from joint ventures [2]. - The company has effectively controlled costs and diversified its product offerings. Revenue from float glass, automotive glass, and construction glass was HKD 6.98 billion, HKD 3.26 billion, and HKD 1.56 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -12.9%, +8.9%, and -2.8%. The decline in float glass revenue is attributed to weak domestic real estate performance, with a nearly 22% year-on-year drop in completed area. Despite this, profitability remained stable due to lower prices of soda ash and natural gas, with gross margins rising to 28.4%, 49.6%, and 28.5% for float glass, automotive glass, and construction glass respectively [2]. - The float glass price is nearing its low point from the first half of 2020, with current industry production capacity close to 170,000 tons per day and inventory levels at historical highs. The oversupply situation has led to a continued decline in prices, now around HKD 1,400 per ton, putting pressure on the profitability of secondary enterprises. An acceleration in industry maintenance and potential capacity reductions are anticipated [2]. - The report projects revenue for 2024-2026 at HKD 24.0 billion, HKD 24.1 billion, and HKD 25.8 billion, with net profit estimates of HKD 5.4 billion, HKD 5.5 billion, and HKD 6.5 billion respectively. The target price corresponds to forecasted P/E ratios of 8.0, 7.8, and 6.8 for 2024-2026 [2]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is expected to generate revenue of HKD 23.95 billion, a decrease of 10.6% from 2023, with net profit projected at HKD 5.38 billion, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year. The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to remain stable at HKD 1.29 [5][6]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 33.3% for 2024, with an EBITDA margin of 29.2% and a net margin of 22.5% [6]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from HKD 50.81 billion in 2023 to HKD 52.97 billion in 2024, while total liabilities are expected to decrease from HKD 14.95 billion to HKD 14.36 billion over the same period [6].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - WeChat Pay MY will stop new user registrations from August 1, 2024, and cease payment services by September 1, 2024, due to local business strategy adjustments in Malaysia. Existing users can still withdraw funds, and the service for Chinese tourists remains unaffected [3]. - WeChat Pay's international business is expanding, covering 74 countries and regions, supporting 31 currencies, with over 1,000 overseas partners and more than 6 million merchants. Monthly transaction volume and number of transactions have seen significant growth, with over 6 times and 4 times year-on-year increases, respectively, as of June 2024 [3]. - Tencent's new tactical shooting game "Delta Operation" is set to launch in September, promising an innovative gaming experience while retaining classic elements. The game has generated significant interest at events like ChinaJoy [3][27]. Summary by Sections WeChat Pay Developments - WeChat Pay MY will halt new registrations and payment services in Malaysia, but existing users can still access their funds. The service for Chinese tourists in Malaysia remains intact [3][28]. - WeChat Pay's international operations are thriving, with substantial growth in transaction numbers and amounts, indicating a robust expansion strategy [3]. Gaming Sector Updates - The National Press and Publication Administration approved 15 new games, including Tencent's "Rainbow Six" and "Final Fantasy XIV," which are expected to perform well in the market [26]. - Tencent's "Delta Operation" is anticipated to provide a unique gaming experience, leveraging advanced technology and gameplay mechanics, and is expected to attract a large player base upon release [27].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Tesla (TSLA) [1]. Core Insights - Tesla has begun a wide release of FSD Supervised v12.5.1.1 for HW 4.0 Model Y owners, with plans to extend it to HW 3.0 owners within 10 days [1]. - Tesla achieved a milestone by producing its 10 millionth motor, primarily for Model 3 and Model Y, indicating strong production capabilities [1]. - Tesla has registered an insurance brokerage in Beijing, China, with a capital of 50 million RMB (approximately 6.9 million USD), potentially expanding its insurance business internationally [1][2]. - Tesla updated its Dojo investment plan in New York, committing to a 500 million USD investment and extending its operational commitment until 2034 [3]. - In the week of July 22 to July 28, 2024, Tesla's domestic insurance volume was approximately 13,500 vehicles, showing a quarter-over-quarter decline of about 9% but a year-over-year increase of 27% [4]. Summary by Sections Company Developments - Tesla's FSD v12.5.1.1 is being rolled out to HW 4.0 Model Y owners, with future plans for HW 3.0 [1]. - The production of the 10 millionth motor highlights Tesla's manufacturing strength, with most motors used in Model 3 and Model Y [1]. - The establishment of an insurance brokerage in China indicates Tesla's strategy to reduce insurance costs and expand its services [1][2]. Financial Commitments - Tesla's commitment to invest 500 million USD in the Dojo supercomputer project in New York, with a significant portion to be invested by the end of next year [3]. Market Performance - The domestic insurance volume for Tesla in China shows a decline from the previous quarter but an increase compared to the same period last year, indicating fluctuating market dynamics [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental with a target price of $90.0, representing a potential upside of 50.4% from the current price of $59.9 [1]. Core Insights - The education business continues to grow despite short-term profit margin fluctuations, with a significant increase in the number of schools and learning centers, reaching 1,025, up by 114 from the previous quarter [1]. - The company expects net revenue for FY25Q1 to be between $1.25 billion and $1.28 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 31% to 34% [1]. - The deferred revenue balance stands at $1.78 billion, up 33.1% quarter-over-quarter, aligning with revenue growth expectations [1]. Financial Overview - For FY24Q4, total revenue was $113.7 million, a year-over-year increase of 32.1%, slightly above the company's guidance [1]. - Non-GAAP operating profit for FY24Q4 was $36.32 million, a year-over-year increase of 53.8% [1]. - The company reported a gross margin of 52.3%, down 2.2 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to increased investments in expansion and employee compensation [1][2]. Business Expansion - The overseas exam preparation and study abroad consulting businesses grew by 17.7% and 17.3% year-over-year, respectively [1]. - Non-academic tutoring business registrations increased by 39.1% year-over-year, contributing to an overall revenue growth of 50.3% in new business segments for Q4 [1]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for the next fiscal years indicate continued growth, with expected revenues of $5.02 billion in 2025 and $5.84 billion in 2026, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 16.3% and 16.5%, respectively [2][3]. - The company anticipates maintaining a strong cash position with total cash, short-term investments, and deposits amounting to $4.94 billion [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 227.37 CNY, indicating a potential upside of 28.46% from the current price of 177.00 CNY [2][3]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 166.77 billion CNY in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 11.88%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 10.37% to 22.86 billion CNY [1]. - The battery business saw a gross margin increase to 26.90%, up by 6.55 percentage points year-on-year, despite a 19.20% decline in revenue from battery sales [1]. - The energy storage segment is emerging as a second growth curve, with sales exceeding 40 GWh and revenue of 28.83 billion CNY, reflecting a 3% year-on-year growth [1]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a net profit of 22.86 billion CNY in H1 2024, with Q1 and Q2 profits of 10.51 billion CNY and 12.36 billion CNY respectively, showing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 17.6% [1]. - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 403.51 billion CNY, 476.75 billion CNY, and 530.90 billion CNY respectively, with net profits expected to be 50.01 billion CNY, 59.71 billion CNY, and 65.33 billion CNY [2][4]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve to 25.3% in 2024 and 25.6% in 2025, indicating a positive trend in profitability [4]. Market Position and Strategic Partnerships - The company continues to hold the leading position in the global power battery market, with a market share of 37.5% and a domestic market share of 46.4% in H1 2024, an increase of 3% year-on-year [1]. - Strategic collaborations have been established with major players such as Volvo and Beijing Hyundai in the power battery sector, and with companies like Sinopec and NextEra in the energy storage business [1].

超威半导体（AMD） 更新报告 上调 MI300 系列收入指引，未来紧跟英伟达产品更新迭代 业绩摘要：2024Q2 公司营收 58 亿美元，同比增加 8.9%，略高于彭 博一致预期 57 亿美元。毛利率为 49.1%，同比增加 3.5 个百分点； 经营利润为 12.6 亿美元，同比增长 18%，营业利润率为 22%；GAAP 净利润 2.6 亿美元，Non-GAAP 净利润 11.3 亿美元，同比增长 18.8%。Non-GAAP 摊薄 EPS 为 0.69 美元，略高于彭博一致预期的 0.68 美元。Q3 收入指引中值 67 亿美元，同比增加 15.5%，略高于 一致预期 66 亿美元。Non-GAAP 毛利率指引为 53.5%。 AI 需求将持续至 2025 年，上调 MI300 系列全年收入至 45 亿美元： 本季度数据中心营收同比增长 114.5%达 28.3 亿美元。当前 AMD 服 务器处理器市场份额达 23.6%，上半年 1/3 以上客户首次部署 EPYC 处理器，下一代产品 Turin 系列将在 24H2 宣发。GPU 方面，Q2 销售 额超10亿元，公司上调全年收入指引至45亿美元。24H2 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on Tencent Holdings (700.HK) with expectations of continued growth in the gaming sector, particularly driven by new product launches in the second half of the year [5]. Core Insights - The Chinese gaming industry showed stable growth in the first half of 2024, with actual sales revenue reaching 147.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%. Mobile games accounted for 73% of this revenue, although their growth rate has slightly declined. In contrast, mini-program games experienced a rapid growth rate exceeding 60% [5]. - The primary growth driver for the gaming industry remains overseas markets, with domestic sales revenue from self-developed games decreasing by 3.3% to 117.74 billion yuan, while overseas market revenue increased by 4.2% to 8.55 billion USD [5]. - Tencent's market capitalization stands at 3338.8 billion HKD, with a total share capital of 9.321 billion shares. The stock price is currently at 358 HKD, with a 52-week high of 400.2 HKD and a low of 256.8 HKD [5]. - The report highlights the anticipated 10% year-on-year growth in Tencent's gaming revenue in the second half of the year, driven by new game releases such as "Dungeon & Fighter" mobile game [5]. - Tencent's new game "Brawl Stars" is set to launch its first domestic test on July 30, 2024, which is expected to attract a significant player base due to its short gameplay duration, catering to the fast-paced lifestyle of players [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The Chinese gaming market's actual sales revenue for the first half of 2024 was 147.27 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 2.1%. The user base for gaming remains stable at approximately 670 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [5]. - The overseas market continues to be a significant growth area, with self-developed games seeing a decline in domestic sales but an increase in international revenue [5]. Company Performance - Tencent's gaming revenue is projected to grow by 10% year-on-year in the latter half of 2024, supported by the launch of new titles and the sustained performance of existing games [5]. - The report notes that Tencent's "Brawl Stars" has already achieved significant success in global markets, indicating strong potential for further growth in the domestic market [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Sands China with a target price of HKD 24.25, corresponding to a 14x EV/EBITDA for 2024 [2][4]. Core Insights - Sands China's Q2 2024 performance met expectations, with net revenue increasing by 8.0% year-on-year to USD 1.75 billion, recovering to 82% of 2019 levels [1][2]. - The VIP segment saw a significant quarter-on-quarter growth of 40.4%, while the mass market segment experienced a decline of 3.4% [1]. - The report highlights the ongoing renovations at The Londoner, which are expected to enhance profitability post-completion, despite short-term impacts [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - Q2 2024 net profit decreased by 17.2% to USD 246 million, with adjusted EBITDA down 8.0% to USD 561 million, recovering to 73% of 2019 levels [1][2]. - The hotel occupancy rate was reported at 95%, with an average room rate of USD 201 [1]. - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, revenue is projected to reach USD 7.30 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 11.7% [3][4]. Operational Highlights - The report details the performance of various properties, with revenue recovery rates for The Venetian, The Londoner, and others ranging from 50% to 119% of 2019 levels [1]. - The renovation budget for The Londoner Phase II is set at USD 1.2 billion, with completion expected to enhance the competitive edge and profit margins of Sands China [2][4]. Market Position - Sands China is positioned as the largest integrated resort operator in Macau, holding a leading position in both mass and non-gaming segments [2][4]. - The report expresses confidence in the long-term growth prospects of the company, driven by strategic renovations and market recovery [2].