公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2024 年 7 月 29 日 星期一 【公司评论】 特斯拉（TSLA）：周报 特斯拉即将发布智能召唤功能 马斯克在 X 上的一篇文章中分享了智能召唤功能 Actual Smart Summon 的信息。 目前这一功能并未出现在 FSD 12.5 更新中，马斯克确认，智能召唤功能将是是 一个单独的代码，该功能将与下个月更新的 v12.5.x 捆绑发布。许多人认为，"实 际智能召唤"将成为特斯拉 Robotaxi 成为现实的前兆。 Cybertruck 预计在 8 月实装 FSD（监督） 马斯克参加了 X Takeover 活动的问答环节。特斯拉车主斯金格问到 Cybertruck 车主什么时候可以看到 FSD，马斯克称应该会在八月份出来，在接下来的两到四周 的某个时候，应该可以在 Cybertruck 上运行。 特斯拉 2024 年第二季度财报电话会议 当地时间 7 月 23 日举行了特斯拉第二季度财报电话会议。 马斯克对公司的多个方面进展进行了分享，主要包括： 机器人：预计明年初开始限量生产，明年年底在特斯拉工厂试运行。2 ...

谷歌（GOOGL/GOOG） 更新报告 收入利润和云业务均超预期，AI 开始贡献收入增长 24Q2 业绩总览：24Q2 公司营业收入为 847 亿美元（YoY+13.6%,QoQ+5.2%）， 净利润 236 亿美元（YoY+28.6%,QoQ-0.2%），收入和利润均超出市场预期。 其中，谷歌服务收入 739 亿美元（YoY+11.5%）；谷歌云业务收入 103 亿美元 （YoY+28.8%）。整体看搜索广告业务保持稳健增长，云业务呈现高速增长。 截至 24Q2 季度末，公司拥有 1007 亿美元的现金及等价物，经营现金流入 266 亿美元。24Q2 公司向 A/B/C 类股票的股东分别支付股息 12 亿/1.7 亿/11 亿美元，总计 25 亿美元。并宣布下季度派发 0.2 美元每股股息。 业务重点：本季度谷歌搜索和其他广告收入 485 亿美元（YoY+13.8%）,其增 长受益于零售行业的增长。在效果广告和品牌广告的推动下，YouTube 广告 收入达到 86.6 亿美元（YoY+12.9%）。网络广告收入 74.4 亿美元（YoY5.2%）。订阅、平台和设备收入为 93.1 亿美元（YoY+14.4% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Tesla (TSLA) with a target price of **$290.00**, representing a **31.67%** upside from the current price of **$220.25** [1][3] Core Views - Tesla's Q2 2024 performance showed a **5% YoY decline in deliveries** to **444,000 units** and a **14% YoY decline in production** to **411,000 units** [1] - Total revenue for Q2 2024 was **$25.5 billion**, a **2% YoY increase**, but below market expectations [1] - Automotive revenue stood at **$19.88 billion**, while energy generation and storage revenue reached **$3.01 billion**, with energy storage deployments at **9.4 GWh** [1] - Operating margin declined by **3.33 percentage points YoY** to **6.3%**, and net income dropped **45% YoY** to **$1.48 billion** [1] - Free cash flow for the quarter was **$1.34 billion**, with cash and cash equivalents totaling **$30.72 billion** [1] Automotive Business - Automotive gross margin remained stable at **18.5%** in Q2 2024, but excluding ZEV credits, it was **14.6%**, impacted by price reductions, Berlin factory upgrades, and lower deliveries [1][9] - Tesla's global inventory days decreased by **36% QoQ** to **18 days**, with a production-to-delivery ratio of **108%** [7] - The company expects automotive margins to improve in future quarters as the refreshed Model 3 and Cybertruck production ramps up [11] Energy Business - Energy storage gross margin remained strong at **24.6%**, with deployments reaching a record **9.4 GWh**, up **157% YoY** [1][5] - The company anticipates significant capacity expansion from its Shanghai factory, potentially doubling or tripling current output [1] FSD and AI Developments - FSD V12 has accumulated over **600 million miles**, with Tesla's neural network training servers expected to reach **90,000 H100-level GPUs** by year-end [1][15] - Tesla has made progress in regulatory approvals for FSD in China, following Elon Musk's meeting with Chinese officials and collaboration with Baidu on autonomous driving maps [15] Future Growth Drivers - Tesla expects to reach **3 million units** of peak production capacity by 2025, driven by new model launches and capacity expansions [15] - The company plans to unveil the **Model 2** or **$25,000 vehicle** in October 2024, with production expected to begin in 2025 [17] - Cybertruck production has reached **1,400 units per week**, with plans for China and EU-specific versions [17] Valuation and Financial Projections - The report forecasts Tesla's deliveries to reach **1.82 million** in 2024, **2.30 million** in 2025, and **2.91 million** in 2026 [1] - Revenue is projected to grow to **$103.3 billion** in 2024, **$133.5 billion** in 2025, and **$200.2 billion** in 2026 [1] - The DCF valuation assumes a **WACC of 12%** and a **perpetual growth rate of 3%**, resulting in a target price of **$290.00** [18]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Trip com Group (TCOM) with a target price of $54 62, representing a 25 8% upside from the current price of $43 43 [1][5] Core Views - Trip com Group is the leader in China's online travel market and is expanding globally through strategic acquisitions and technological innovation [1][14] - The company has demonstrated strong resilience and recovery post-pandemic, with 2023 revenue and non-GAAP net profit surpassing pre-pandemic levels [60][61] - Trip com Group's international business has become a significant growth driver, with overseas revenue accounting for 13 2% of total revenue in 2023, up from 9 5% in 2018 [77] Business Overview Domestic Market Leadership - Trip com Group dominates China's OTA market with a strong presence in high-end hotels and a comprehensive supply chain network [21][27] - The company has a healthy user base, with 87% of users being middle to high-income consumers and 66% aged between 80s and 90s [34][38] International Expansion - Trip com Group has accelerated its global expansion through acquisitions like Skyscanner and Trip com, establishing a strong presence in Asia, Europe, and North America [14][78] - The company's international revenue reached RMB 5 89 billion in 2023, nearly doubling from 2018 levels [77] Financial Performance - Trip com Group's 2023 revenue reached RMB 44 56 billion, a 122 2% YoY increase, with non-GAAP net profit of RMB 13 07 billion, up 910 1% YoY [6] - The company's 2024-2026 revenue is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 15 6%, with non-GAAP net profit expected to reach RMB 20 36 billion by 2026 [6] Growth Drivers Domestic Market - Trip com Group benefits from China's post-pandemic travel recovery, with domestic travel demand remaining strong [63][65] - The company's focus on high-end hotels and cross-selling opportunities between transportation and accommodation services drives revenue growth [24][26] International Market - Trip com Group's overseas platforms, Trip com and Skyscanner, are key growth engines, with Trip com's revenue contribution expected to exceed 10% in 2024 [87] - The company's differentiated strategy in Asia and non-confrontational approach in欧美 markets have helped it gain market share [85][86] Industry Outlook - China's tourism industry is expected to maintain steady growth, with online penetration rates continuing to rise, benefiting leading OTA platforms like Trip com Group [55] - The global online travel market has surpassed pre-pandemic levels, with Trip com Group well-positioned to capture growth opportunities in both domestic and international markets [70][74] Strategic Initiatives - Trip com Group has invested heavily in technology, including AI and big data, to enhance user experience and operational efficiency [81] - The company's localized services and multi-language support have improved its competitiveness in international markets [81][82]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 21.38, indicating a potential upside of 31.98% from the current price [2][74]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a builder of a "human-vehicle-home ecosystem," with a focus on expanding its core business areas, including smartphones, IoT, and internet services, while also venturing into the automotive sector [1][5]. - The smartphone business remains stable, with a market share of 13.8% as of Q1 2024, and is expected to benefit from the 5G device upgrade cycle and AI-driven innovations [1][12]. - The IoT and lifestyle products segment is the world's leading consumer-grade AIoT platform, with significant growth potential as the company expands its overseas market presence [1][25]. - The internet services business is projected to enhance its monetization capabilities as the company penetrates the high-end market and expands its overseas user base [1][32]. - The automotive segment, marked by the launch of the Xiaomi SU7, is anticipated to drive a second growth curve for the company, with a delivery target of approximately 120,000 units for 2024 [1][37]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported total revenue of RMB 270.97 billion in 2023, with a forecasted increase to RMB 332.86 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.84% [3][74]. - Net profit for 2023 was RMB 17.47 billion, with projections of RMB 14.31 billion for 2024, reflecting a decrease due to ongoing investments in new business areas [3][74]. - The gross margin improved from 16.99% in 2019 to 21.21% in 2023, driven by a better revenue mix and strategic focus on profitability [64][66]. Business Segments Smartphone Business - The smartphone segment accounted for 61.6% of total revenue in Q1 2024, with a market share of 14% globally [12][15]. - The average selling price (ASP) of smartphones reached RMB 1,144.7, showing resilience despite market fluctuations [13][18]. IoT and Lifestyle Products - The IoT platform connects 786 million devices, with a user base of 15.2 million having five or more connected devices [25][28]. - The IoT segment is expected to generate revenue of RMB 902.3 billion to RMB 1,007.2 billion from 2024 to 2026 [72]. Internet Services - Internet services revenue is projected to grow from RMB 332.2 billion in 2024 to RMB 390.8 billion in 2026, driven by advertising and gaming services [72][33]. Automotive Business - The automotive segment aims to deliver 120,000 units in 2024, with revenue expectations of RMB 299 billion, increasing to RMB 800 billion by 2026 [72][37]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a high-end strategy to enhance brand image and expand into higher price segments, with over 20% of smartphone sales in the high-end category [18][20]. - The automotive business is positioned as a key growth driver, with significant investments in R&D and production capabilities [37][43]. - The integration of AI across all product lines is a strategic focus, enhancing user experience and operational efficiency [16][44].

更新報 Group 5.74% 報告 202 24年7月 2 25 日 買入 廣 廣告版訂閱全 全面向好， 上調至買入 入評級 平臺的雙邊網 用戶群體，形 入巨額成本， 市場正在萎縮 繼續通過優質 業務方面，廣 預計 2026 的創作者工 內容推薦、廣 計 23-26 年收 6.6%、27.4% 摘要：收入 增用戶 805 閱費用同比增 分別為第二和 版所在地區的 比增長 42%至 薄後 EPS 為 4 .29 美元增長 指引：收入將 於 2023Q3 的 攤薄後 EPS 長 14-15%， 提升。預計 2 60 億美元。 00 美元，買 F 法估值，假 2.00 美元， 當前價格對應 流媒體及其他 元計價的財務 奈飛 買入評級：我 假設 WACC 為 較當前股價 應 24-26 年市 他線上平臺 務表現、文 （NFLX 我們上調未來 9.0%，長期 價有 16.7%的 市盈率分別為 臺加速搶奪使 生視頻應用 ） 奈 不 質 而 大 粘 戶 AI 公 AI 為 奈飛受益於平 不斷增長的用 質內容上投入 而有線電視市 大。公司將繼 粘性。在新業 戶高速增長， I 將誕生新 公司也將在內 I。我們預計 為 25. ...

Economic Data - The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 13 was 240,000, exceeding expectations of 229,000 and the previous value of 222,000[16] - The number of continuing jobless claims reached 1.867 million, marking the highest level since November 2021, indicating economic cooling[16] - The unemployment rate surged to 4.1%, prompting market expectations for an 88.5% probability of a rate cut in September[16] Semiconductor Industry - ASML's disappointing Q3 guidance has raised concerns, but TSMC's performance is not necessarily correlated, as TSMC continues to optimize existing equipment to reduce costs and improve margins[5] - The semiconductor sector experienced significant adjustments due to ASML's poor guidance and potential U.S. trade restrictions on advanced semiconductor technology to China[18] Market Trends - Goldman Sachs predicts a summer decline in the U.S. stock market due to seasonal weakness and tight positioning, suggesting a potential self-fulfilling prophecy[19] - Investors are advised to consider reducing positions in high-performing sectors like semiconductors and explore opportunities in consumer, financial, industrial, and real estate sectors[19] Bitcoin and AI - Long-term optimism for Bitcoin remains, viewed as an effective hedge against fiat currency depreciation despite uncertainties regarding Trump's potential policies on cryptocurrency[6] - Nvidia's market cap could reach $49 trillion in 10 years if demand grows at 60% annually, though a 35%-40% price correction is also anticipated[8]

公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 第一上海 公司评论 免责声明 第一上海或其一家或多家关联公司可能或已经，就本报告所载信息、评论或投资策略，发布不一 致或得出不同结论的其他报告或观点。 信息、意见和估计均按"现况"提供，不提供任何形式的 保证，并可随时更改，恕不另行通知。 在若干国家或司法管辖区，分发、发行或使用本报告可能会抵触当地法律、规定或其他注册/发牌 的规例。本报告不是旨在向该等国家或司法管辖区的任何人或单位分发或由其使用。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|--------|--------------|----------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | 第一上海证券有限公司 | | | | | | 香港中环德辅道中 71 号 | | | | | 永安集团大厦 | 19 楼 | | | | 电话 | | : (852) 2522-2101 | | | | 传真 | | : (852) 2810-6789 | | | | 网址： | | ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for Tesla [2] Core Insights - Tesla is expected to hold its Q2 2024 earnings call on July 23, 2024, at 4:30 PM Central Time [1] - Elon Musk confirmed the delay of the Robotaxi launch due to significant design changes requested for the vehicle [1] - Tesla aims to achieve mass production of the dry electrode 4680 battery by the end of this year, following improvements in process efficiency [1] - Tesla plans to complete the construction of its energy storage factory in Shanghai by 2025, with an expected annual production capacity of 10,000 Megapacks, totaling nearly 40 GWh [3] - Tesla has raised the prices of Model S and Model X in North America by $2,000, with new prices set at $74,990 and $89,990 for Model S, and $79,990 and $94,990 for Model X [4] - In the second week of July 2024, Tesla's domestic insurance registrations reached approximately 11,400 vehicles, marking a quarter-over-quarter increase of about 78% and a year-over-year increase of about 14% [5] Summary by Sections Earnings Call - Tesla's Q2 2024 earnings call is scheduled for July 23, 2024, at 4:30 PM Central Time [1] Product Launch and Development - The Robotaxi launch has been postponed due to design changes requested by Elon Musk [1] - The company is on track to achieve mass production of the dry electrode 4680 battery by the end of 2024 [1] Expansion Plans - Tesla's energy storage factory in Shanghai is set to be completed by 2025, with a production capacity of 10,000 Megapacks annually [3] Pricing Adjustments - Price increases for Model S and Model X in North America have been implemented, with specific new prices detailed [4] Sales Performance - Domestic insurance registrations for Tesla vehicles showed significant growth in July 2024 [5]

台積電(TSM) 更新報告 營收毛利率均超預期,先進封裝供不應求將持續至 2026 年 季度業績摘要:公司 24Q2 總收入 6735.1 億新臺幣,同比增長 40.1%,折合 208.2 億美元,高於公司上季度指引中值的 200.0 億美元,也高於彭博一致預期的 201.1 億美元。其中晶圓收入 6165.2 億新臺幣,7 納米以下的先進制程貢獻 50%的營收。本季 度公司總成本 3153.8 億新臺幣,毛利率 53.2%,同比下滑 0.9 個 百分點。經營利潤 2865.6 億新臺幣,同比增長 41.9%。淨利潤 2478.5 億新臺幣,同比增長 36.3%,折合 76.6 億美元,高於一 致預期的 72.1 億美元。攤薄後每 ADR 收益 1.48 美元,高於一致 預期的 1.39 美元。 先進制程產能供不應求,ASP 漲價在即:Q2 公司 7nm 及小於 7nm 的先進制程貢獻收入 67%,同比/環比分別增長 14/2 個百分點, 其中 3nm 制程貢獻收入 15%,環比增加 6 個百分點,主要因中國 大陸企業礦機訂單激增。公司 N2、N2P、A16 制程研發進展順 利,海外工廠建設將稀釋 2-3pc ...