波司登(3998.HK) 更新报告 买入 2024 年 07 月 11 日 23/24 财年业绩增长亮丽,配售事项不会对集团构成重大影响 王柏俊 + 852 2532 1915 Patrick.wong@firstshanghai.com.hk 2023/2024 财年业绩概览:截至 2024 年 3 月 31 日的全年业绩,公司实现营业收入 232 亿元 (人民币,下同)、同比增加 38.4%(主要受益于品牌羽绒服的快速增长),毛利率比去年 同期提升 0.1PCT 到 59.6%,经营利润率同比提升 2.1PCT 至 18.9%(受益于营运效率的提 升,良好的费用控制及女装业务的经营亏损和商誉减值大幅减少),归母净利润 30.7 亿 元、同比增加 43.7%,归母净利率同比提升 0.5PCT 至 13.2%,拟派末期股息每股 20.0 港 仙,全年派息比率为 81.1%。存货周转天数有效降低,回到 115 天的正常水平;受益于一体 化的营运及快速补货的能力。持有净现金为120.5亿,资产负债水平健康。总体业绩亮丽。 羽绒服业务表现依然出色,贴牌加工及女装录得双位数的增长:分业务:1)品牌羽绒服业 务收入 1 ...

行业评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2024 年 7 月 12 日 星期五 邹瀚逸 +852-25321539 Robin.zou@firstshanghai.com.hk 李羚玮 +852-25321539 david.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 陈晓霞 +852 25321956 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 行业 煤炭行业 【行业评论】 煤炭板块点评 中国神华中期业绩预告归母利润下降: 公司中期业绩预告归母利润下降 8.3-13.8%,归母净利润 318-338 亿(H 股)。降 幅相较 24 年 Q1(-14%)有所缩窄,主要由于 23 年 Q1 是煤价高位,今年煤价降幅 较大。按照 24 年按照 23 年下半年的煤价预测,下半年的利润大致在 270 亿的水平, 全年预计利润在 590-600 亿水平(H 股),低于预期的 620 亿。主要原因预计是煤 价下降、煤化工 5 月停工导致上半年产量下降 25%左右以及火电增速由于水电出力 导致放缓。整体公司半年业绩报降幅在 10%左右,低于同业 30-60%的 ...

公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2024 年 7 月 11 日 星期四 【公司评论】 李京霖 852-25321957 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 行业 汽车零部件 激光雷达行业周报 速腾聚创激光雷达交付量新高 速腾聚创公告 2024 年 2024 年 1-6 月公司激光雷达销量约为 243,400 台,同比增长 415.7%,其中车载激光雷达销量约为 234,500 台,同比增长 487.7%。2024 年第二 季度,公司激光雷达销量约为 123,000 台,车载激光雷达销量约为 118,300 台。截 至 2024 年 5 月 17 日,公司已获得全球 22 家汽车整车厂及 Tier 1 的 71 款车型的 量产定点订单。截至第一季度末,已助力其中 12 家客户的 25 款车型实现大规模量 产落地。 公司于 2024 年 6 月 27 日股东周年大会的授权,公司计划在公开市场购 回普通股,总金额不超过 2 亿港元。 盖世汽车发布 1-5 月激光雷达市占率与渗透率统计 在 2024 年的前五个月,国内激光雷达市场呈现出 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 6.58, representing a potential upside of 39.3% from the current price of HKD 4.72 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company's net profit for the fiscal year 2023/24 is expected to decline by 12.6%, with total revenue decreasing by 9.4% to HKD 12.86 billion. Excluding currency fluctuations, the revenue decline is 4.1% [3][4]. - Despite the decline in overall performance, core businesses such as water supply, direct drinking water, and environmental services remain robust, indicating a pathway to high-quality development [3][6]. - The direct drinking water segment saw a revenue increase of 31.4% to HKD 1.72 billion, now accounting for 13.2% of total revenue, with over 3,000 new projects added during the period [3][4]. - The water supply business experienced a slight revenue decline of 5.8% to HKD 8.90 billion, but the company anticipates significant revenue growth from over 20 water price adjustment projects currently in progress [3][6]. - The environmental segment's revenue decreased by 35% to HKD 1.03 billion, primarily due to the completion of large projects, but is expected to rebound with the upcoming production of the Mobil project [3][4]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year 2023/24, the company reported a net profit of HKD 2.59 billion, down 16.1% year-on-year, with a core net profit decline of 4.0% when excluding currency impacts [3][4]. - The EBITDA margin improved slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 40.1%, indicating operational efficiency despite revenue challenges [3][4]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 30%, with a proposed final dividend of HKD 0.15 per share [3][4]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of HKD 1.70 billion, HKD 1.93 billion, and HKD 2.12 billion over the next three fiscal years [3][4]. - The anticipated reduction in capital expenditures due to the commencement of trial production for approximately 800,000 tons of capacity in the water supply and environmental sectors is expected to improve the financial structure and cash flow [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a **Buy** rating to Kuaishou-W (1024) with a target price of **HKD 60**, representing a **26% upside** from the current price [1] Core Views - Kuaishou is positioned as a leading content community and social platform with **700 million MAUs**, leveraging its "short video + live streaming" ecosystem to drive sustainable growth through advertising, e-commerce, and live streaming [1] - The company's **online marketing business** is a key revenue driver, benefiting from refined operations, upgraded intelligent marketing products, and algorithm optimization [1] - E-commerce GMV has grown rapidly from **RMB 96.6 million in 2018 to RMB 1.18 trillion in 2023**, with a projected **18% CAGR from 2024 to 2026** [1] - Kuaishou has achieved significant **cost reduction and efficiency improvements**, with adjusted net profit turning positive in 2023, reflecting strong operational resilience [1] Business Model and Growth Drivers Content Ecosystem - Kuaishou has built a **diverse content ecosystem** centered around short videos and live streaming, fostering a vibrant community with **7 billion MAUs** [1][7] - The platform emphasizes **user engagement**, with average daily usage time reaching **129.5 minutes** in Q1 2024 [1] Online Marketing - Online marketing revenue grew **27.4% YoY in Q1 2024**, contributing **56.6% of total revenue** [10] - **Internal loop advertising**, driven by e-commerce, is a major growth driver, with penetration of smart marketing products reaching **30% in Q1 2024** [10][11] E-commerce - Kuaishou's e-commerce business has seen rapid growth, with **GMV reaching RMB 1.18 trillion in 2023** [1][14] - The company is expanding into **pan-shelf scenarios**, integrating live streaming, short videos, and traditional e-commerce to enhance conversion efficiency [1][14] - **Monthly active buyers** reached **126 million in Q1 2024**, with a penetration rate of **18.6%** [14] Live Streaming - Live streaming revenue has declined as a percentage of total revenue, from **95.3% in 2017 to 34.4% in 2023**, but remains a foundational business [12] - The company is diversifying into new verticals such as recruitment and real estate to reduce reliance on traditional live streaming [12] Financial Performance - Revenue grew from **RMB 8.3 billion in 2017 to RMB 113.5 billion in 2023**, with a **54.5% CAGR** [1] - Gross margin improved from **31.3% in 2017 to 50.6% in 2023**, driven by cost optimization and a shift toward higher-margin businesses [1] - Adjusted net profit turned positive in 2023, reaching **RMB 10.3 billion**, with further growth expected to **RMB 26.3 billion by 2026** [1][20] Industry Context Short Video and Live Streaming - Short video users account for **96.4% of China's internet users**, with platforms like Kuaishou and Douyin dominating the market [26] - The **live streaming e-commerce market** is expected to grow at an **18% CAGR from 2024 to 2026**, reaching **RMB 49.2 trillion in 2023** [33] Advertising Market - China's internet advertising market grew **7.6% YoY in 2023**, reaching **RMB 714.6 billion**, with Kuaishou benefiting from both internal and external loop advertising [27] E-commerce Market - Live streaming e-commerce penetration reached **31.9% in 2023**, with Kuaishou's **pan-shelf strategy** expected to drive further growth [33][36] Strategic Initiatives AI and Technology - Kuaishou has developed its own large language model, **KwaiYii**, and other AI tools to enhance content creation and advertising efficiency [42] - AI-driven solutions are being applied across various business segments, including **digital humans and smart customer service** [42] Overseas Expansion - Overseas revenue grew **193.2% YoY in Q1 2024**, with a focus on key markets like Brazil and Indonesia [15][16] - The company aims to achieve **break-even in overseas operations by 2025** [42] Share Repurchase - Kuaishou plans to repurchase up to **HKD 16 billion worth of shares over the next three years**, starting with **HKD 6 billion in 2024** [44]

研究观点 【宏观经济评论】 第一上海——2024 年下半年策略报告 第一上海证券有限公司 www.mystockhk.com 中特估继续回吐 港股支撑力减弱 7 月 10 日，港股出现冲高后又再回压下跌，日内跌幅不算太大，但是总体上仍未 能摆脱反复下放的运行模式，要注意短期后市仍有进一步下探的倾向。恒指再跌 了有 50 多点，跌低于 17500 点来收盘，是 4 月 25 日以来的首次，而大市成交量 回升至逾 1000 亿元，但仍低于年内的日均 1097 亿元，盘面流动性依然未见转活。 走势上，恒指仍受制于前一级微型浪顶 18133 点以下，一浪低于一浪发展模式未 可改观，估计后市仍有反复下放的机会。消息方面，内地公布了 6 月居民消费物 价指数 CPI 同比上升 0.2％，虽然是连续第五个月录得上升，但升幅较上月回落 0.1 个百分点，显示经济仍处于供给强、需求弱的状态，市场普遍预期人行在下 半年有降准降息的机会。另一方面，美联储主席鲍威尔出席国会听证会时表示， 不太可能在 7 月底的议息会议上减息，但重申下一步行动也不太可能是加息，并 指出太迟减息或减幅太小会对经济及劳动市场构成风险。 852-25321 ...

| --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | 2024 年 7 月 9 日 星期二 【宏观经济评论】 | | 李倩 | 第一上海——美股宏观策略周报 | | +852-25321539 | | | Chuck.li@firstshanghai.com.hk | 政治事件 | | | 第一个是法国的第二轮选举极右派没有获得执政权，对欧洲的股票是一个好消 息，因为对于股市而言，平 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - Tencent's new game "Apex Warriors 2" was launched on July 6, 2024, allowing Android users immediate download, while iOS users are still awaiting access [3]. - The game features a 5V5 hero shooting format and offers special benefits for returning players, allowing them to redeem previous in-game purchases [3]. - Tencent showcased its advancements in AI large models at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference, emphasizing its leadership in the domestic AI model landscape [3]. - The company has initiated a significant share buyback program, repurchasing 10.63 million shares for a total of 4 billion HKD from July 2 to July 5, 2024 [3]. Company Overview - Tencent's market capitalization stands at 35,380 billion HKD, with a total share capital of 9.355 billion [3]. - The stock price is currently at 378 HKD, with a 52-week high of 400.2 HKD and a low of 256.8 HKD [3]. - The book value per share is reported at 89.7 HKD [3]. Industry Developments - Tencent's large model technology is becoming a core driver for various industries, with significant advancements in computational power and efficiency [3]. - The report highlights ten trends in AI development, indicating that large models are evolving to support human intelligence and enhance interaction capabilities [3].

公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2024 年 7 月 9 日 星期二 【公司评论】 李京霖 852-25321957 李倩 852-25321539 Chuck.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 陈晓霞 852-25321956 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 行业 汽车 股价 251.52 美元 市值 8021.48 亿美元 总股本 31.89 亿股 52 周高/低299.29 美元/ 138.80 美元 每股账面值 20.19 美元 股价表现 特斯拉(TSLA):周报 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk FSD v12.4.3 正在向部分客户推出 7 月 4 日,Teslascope 表示,已确认特斯拉将开始推出 FSD v12.4.3,而非此前 原定的 v12.4.2。马斯克上周表示,v12.4.2 版本被暂停推送是因为该版本减少 了干预,但驾驶平稳性却受到影响,正常驾驶的训练不充足。FSD 用户 Dave Lee 收到了 v12.4.3,并分享了有关新软件的多个细节,他特别指出,新 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - Laopuhuang, established in 2009, is a leading brand in promoting "ancient method gold" in China, holding a market share of 2.0% in the ancient method gold jewelry market and 0.6% in the overall gold jewelry market as of 2023 [1]. - The company has experienced rapid growth, with revenue increasing from 1.265 billion to 3.180 billion, a CAGR of 58.6% from 2021 to 2023. Gross profit rose from 521 million to 1.332 billion, with a CAGR of 59.8%, and net profit surged from 114 million to 416 million, reflecting a CAGR of 91.0% [1]. - Laopuhuang operates 33 stores across mainland China and Hong Kong, targeting high-end consumers in top luxury shopping centers [20]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Laopuhuang is recognized for its craftsmanship, inheriting traditional techniques from the Qing Dynasty, including flower wire inlay and gold-silver techniques, which are classified as national intangible cultural heritage [5]. - The company’s unique selling proposition lies in its exclusive use of a fixed-price model for gold jewelry, which positions it as a premium brand despite not being significantly more expensive than competitors when comparing gold weight to price [8][22]. Market Position - The company has successfully captured a growing consumer interest in gold jewelry, particularly as consumers shift from diamond-set luxury items to gold due to rising gold prices and a preference for safer investments [12]. - In the first half of 2024, Laopuhuang's sales surpassed those of four major international luxury jewelry brands in select high-end malls, indicating a strong acceptance among affluent consumers [12]. Future Plans - Laopuhuang plans to open 8 new stores in mainland China and 5 in overseas markets, including Hong Kong and Macau, over the next two years [20].