宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 21 日 | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | --- | --- | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 王仲尧 | 021-63325888*3267 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | 彭楚榕 | pengchurong@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524080005 | | 东方战略周观察：百日成绩单——市场与 | 2025-05-09 | | --- | --- | | 外交双震荡 | | | 东方战略周观察：对等关税冲击越南外向 | 2025-04-21 | | 型经 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music [4] Core Views - The online music revenue is expected to increase due to the growth in paid users and ARPPU, leading to an overall improvement in profit margins. The forecasted net profit for the years 2025-2027 is 10.41 billion, 10.14 billion, and 11.16 billion RMB respectively, with a target price of 94.86 HKD [2][4] Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 27,752 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of -2.1%. This is expected to rise to 31,453 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a growth of 10.7% [3][9] - Operating profit is forecasted to increase significantly from 4,777 million RMB in 2023 to 9,440 million RMB in 2025, showing a growth rate of 28.5% [3][9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 4,920 million RMB in 2023 to 10,411 million RMB in 2025, representing a substantial increase of 56.7% [3][9] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 35.3% in 2023 to 45.6% in 2025, indicating enhanced profitability [3][9] Revenue Breakdown - Online music revenue for Q1 is reported at 58.0 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 15.9%. The forecast for Q2 is 64.3 billion RMB, reflecting an 18.6% growth [7] - Social entertainment revenue for Q1 is 15.5 billion RMB, showing a decline of 11.9% year-on-year, with expectations of continued challenges in Q2 [7] Market Position and Valuation - The target price of 94.86 HKD is based on a P/E ratio of 27 times for 2026, which is aligned with comparable companies in the industry [2][8] - The report highlights a strong performance relative to the Hang Seng Index, with a 1-week absolute performance of 13.51% and a 1-month performance of 30.05% [5]

AI 驱动广告、游戏收入持续超预期增长 ——腾讯控股（0700.HK）25Q1 季报点评 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 609,015 | 660,257 | 741,393 | 823,081 | 911,511 | | 同比增长 (%) | 9.82% | 8.41% | 12.29% | 11.02% | 10.74% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 152,784 | 200,097 | 239,238 | 272,041 | 308,598 | | 同比增长 (%) | 52.76% | 30.97% | 19.56% | 13.71% | 13.44% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 115,216 | 194,073 | 218,491 | 248,401 | 277,831 | | 同比增长 (%) | -38.79% | 68.44% | 12.58% | 13.69% | 11.85% | | 每股收益（元） | 12.5 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music [4] Core Views - The online music revenue is expected to continue increasing due to the growth in paid users and ARPPU, leading to an overall improvement in profit margins. The forecasted net profit for the years 2025 to 2027 is 10.41 billion, 10.14 billion, and 11.16 billion RMB respectively, with a target price set at 94.86 HKD [2][4] Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 27.75 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of -2.1%. This is expected to rise to 31.45 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a growth of 10.7% [3][9] - Operating profit is forecasted to increase significantly from 4.78 billion RMB in 2023 to 9.44 billion RMB in 2025, marking a growth of 28.5% [3][9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 4.92 billion RMB in 2023 to 10.41 billion RMB in 2025, representing a substantial increase of 56.7% [3][9] - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 35.3% in 2023 to 45.6% in 2025, while the net margin is expected to rise from 17.7% to 33.1% over the same period [3][9] Revenue Breakdown - Online music revenue for Q1 is reported at 5.8 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 15.9%. The forecast for Q2 is 6.43 billion RMB, with an expected growth of 18.6% [7] - Social entertainment revenue for Q1 is 1.55 billion RMB, down 11.9% year-on-year, with expectations for Q2 to remain flat [7] Market Position and Valuation - The target price of 94.86 HKD corresponds to a P/E ratio of 27 times for 2026, based on comparable company analysis [2][8] - The report highlights a strong performance relative to the Hang Seng Index, with a 1-week absolute performance of 13.51% and a 1-month performance of 30.05% [5]

银行行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 存款利率下调呵护银行息差，存款脱媒或 较为温和 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 当前进入稳增长政策密集落地期，宽货币先行，宽财政紧随，地方化债显著提速， 对 25 年银行基本面产生深刻影响；财政政策力度加码，支撑社融信贷并提振经济预 期，顺周期品种有望受益；广谱利率下行区间，银行净息差短期承压，但高息存款 进入集中重定价周期叠加监管对高息揽存行为持续整治，对 25 年银行息差形成重要 呵护；25 年是银行资产质量夯实之年，政策托底下，房地产、城投资产风险预期有 望显著改善，风险暴露和处置较为充分的部分个贷品种也有望迎来资产质量拐点。 ⚫ 现阶段关注两条投资主线： 风险提示 经济复苏不及预期；房地产等重点领域风险蔓延；流动性环境超预期收紧；假设条件变 化影响测算结果。 国家/地区 中国 行业 银行行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 21 日 | 屈俊 | qujun@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523060001 | | 于博文 | yubowen1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执 ...

银行行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 存款利率下调呵护银行息差，存款脱媒或 较为温和 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 当前进入稳增长政策密集落地期，宽货币先行，宽财政紧随，地方化债显著提速， 对 25 年银行基本面产生深刻影响；财政政策力度加码，支撑社融信贷并提振经济预 期，顺周期品种有望受益；广谱利率下行区间，银行净息差短期承压，但高息存款 进入集中重定价周期叠加监管对高息揽存行为持续整治，对 25 年银行息差形成重要 呵护；25 年是银行资产质量夯实之年，政策托底下，房地产、城投资产风险预期有 望显著改善，风险暴露和处置较为充分的部分个贷品种也有望迎来资产质量拐点。 ⚫ 现阶段关注两条投资主线： 风险提示 经济复苏不及预期；房地产等重点领域风险蔓延；流动性环境超预期收紧；假设条件变 化影响测算结果。 国家/地区 中国 行业 银行行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 21 日 | 屈俊 | qujun@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523060001 | | 于博文 | yubowen1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执 ...

研究结论 政策催化叠加基本面共振，电力行业步入高景气 政策层面，2024 年起实施的容量电价机制重构了煤电企业的收入结构，减轻对电能量收 入的依赖，降低经营主体对高利用小时数的需求；辅助服务市场机制正式发布，现货市 场建设全面加快，助力电力行业高质量发展。 随着全社会用电持续回暖，叠加迎峰度夏临近，行业景气有望延续改善；2025 年一季度 来水偏丰，水电发电量攀升，带动水电企业盈利改善；火电方面燃料成本压力显著缓 解，充裕的库存水平进一步强化了火电企业在高峰负荷期间的燃料供应安全与盈利韧 性。 中证全指电力指数投资价值分析 中证全指电力指数（以下简称为"全指电力指数"）是中证三级行业指数，该指数选取中证 全指样本股中的电力公用事业行业股票组成，以反映该行业股票的整体表现。从成分股 分布来看，该指数成分股的主要权重在沪深 300 指数内，但中证 500 和中证 1000 中的成 分股数量更多。 该指数成分股的行业分布较为集中，按中信二级行业划分，98.92%的成分股属于发电及 电网行业，按中信三级行业划分，火电、其他发电、水电行业的权重占比最高，分别为 41.92%、32.97%、20.21%。 截至 2025 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with a projected increase in revenue from 245 million yuan in 2023 to 669 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 31.6% [5][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 52 million yuan in 2023 to 222 million yuan in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5][10]. - The company is experiencing a rapid increase in project numbers, particularly in the industrial purification segment, which has become a major growth driver [10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 315 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.7% [5]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable, with a slight decrease to 71.0% in 2024 from 71.2% in 2023 [5]. - The net profit margin is projected to increase from 21.4% in 2023 to 27.0% in 2024, reflecting improved profitability [5][10]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 0.13 yuan in 2023 to 0.53 yuan in 2027 [5][10]. Segment Performance - The industrial purification segment achieved revenue of 187 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 49.1%, driven by growth in antibody drug products [10]. - The analysis chromatography segment generated revenue of 124 million yuan in 2024, with a stable growth rate of 7.8% [10]. - The company added 209 new pharmaceutical projects in 2024, indicating a robust pipeline for future growth [10]. Valuation Metrics - The target price for the company is set at 17.85 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 51 times for 2026 [3][6]. - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 128.9 in 2023 to 30.5 in 2027, indicating improving valuation as earnings grow [5][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 29.92 CNY [4][7][11] Core Views - The company's silicon wafer business is currently under pressure due to industry conditions, but it is optimizing its product structure with a notable increase in high-value products [10][11] - The company achieved a revenue of 3.09 billion CNY in 2024, a 15% increase year-on-year, but reported a net loss of 266 million CNY, a decline of 504% due to cost pressures from capacity expansion and reduced product prices [10][11] - The semiconductor power device chip sales reached 1.82 million units in 2024, a 6% increase, with a focus on high-frequency and high-voltage trends, particularly in the electric vehicle market [10][11] - The company has made significant advancements in RF technology, enhancing production capacity and entering new markets such as low-orbit satellites and smart driving [10][11] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 4.04 billion CNY, 4.90 billion CNY, and 5.70 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 31%, 21%, and 16% [6][10] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 28 million CNY in 2025, 295 million CNY in 2026, and 496 million CNY in 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 111%, 950%, and 68% [6][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is 0.04 CNY, 0.44 CNY, and 0.74 CNY, respectively [4][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 29.92 CNY [4][7][11] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 30.92 billion CNY, a 15% increase year-on-year, despite a net loss of 2.66 billion CNY, reflecting a significant decline of 504% due to cost pressures from capacity expansion and reduced product prices [10] - The silicon wafer business is currently under pressure, but the product structure is continuously optimized, with a notable increase in high-value-added products [10] - The company achieved a record sales volume of 1.82 million semiconductor power device chips in 2024, marking a 6% year-on-year growth, driven by the expanding market for electric vehicles [10] - The company has made significant advancements in RF technology, enhancing production capacity and entering new supply chains in emerging fields such as low-orbit satellites and smart driving [10] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 40.44 billion CNY, 49 billion CNY, and 56.96 billion CNY respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 31%, 21%, and 16% [6] - The company is expected to return to profitability in 2025 with a net profit of 0.28 billion CNY, followed by 0.30 billion CNY in 2026 and 0.50 billion CNY in 2027 [6] - The gross margin is forecasted to improve from 17.5% in 2025 to 24.7% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to rise from 0.7% to 8.7% over the same period [6]