Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the 3D printing industry, indicating a low current penetration rate and potential for rapid growth driven by the expansion of demand for customized products and the popularization of the 3D farm model [7]. Core Insights - The 3D printing industry is entering a "singularity moment," where growth is driven not just by technological breakthroughs but also by a paradigm shift in industrial manufacturing and a surge in consumer demand for personalized products. Key drivers include agile manufacturing advantages in industrial-grade 3D printing, the ability to produce complex shapes, and the democratization of technology in consumer-grade 3D printing [9][13]. - The global 3D printing market is projected to reach $21.9 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 9.31%. In China, the market is expected to reach 42.3 billion yuan, with a significant portion of revenue coming from equipment and services [9][69]. Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report suggests that the 3D printing industry is poised for rapid growth due to low current penetration rates and expanding demand. Key investment targets include: - Consumer-grade 3D printing service operator Huina Technology (300609, not rated) - Industrial-grade metal printing equipment manufacturers Plater (688333, not rated) and Huashu High-Tech (688433, not rated) - 3D printing material suppliers Jialian Technology (301193, not rated) and Youyan Powder Materials (688456, not rated) [4][21]. Industry Overview - 3D printing technology is characterized by its flexibility and high production capacity, allowing for the creation of complex structures with minimal waste. The technology has evolved from traditional subtractive manufacturing to additive manufacturing, enabling significant design freedom and reduced production cycles [22][24]. - The main materials used in 3D printing include plastics and metal powders, with various technological routes such as FDM, SLS, and SLA being commercially viable [31][36]. Market Outlook - The global 3D printing market is experiencing a golden development period, with both consumer and industrial segments expected to expand. The U.S. leads the market, while the Asia-Pacific region is catching up rapidly. The market for 3D printing materials is projected to grow by 35.21% in 2024, with significant growth also seen in 3D bioprinting and metal additive manufacturing [58][62]. - In China, the 3D printing market is expected to reach 42.3 billion yuan in 2024, with a strong focus on equipment and services, which together account for 76% of the market [69][70]. Key Players - The report highlights the differentiation among leading companies in the industrial-grade 3D printing sector, with notable players like Plater and Huashu High-Tech excelling in metal 3D printing. In the consumer-grade sector, Huina Technology is building a supply-demand ecosystem through a combination of scale farms and offline stores [9][20][21].

Group 1 - The report highlights two main challenges for asset allocation in 2026: a long-term challenge of reduced hedging effectiveness between stocks and bonds due to low interest rates, and a short-term challenge of market risk preferences returning to the middle from extremes [10][15][16] - The report emphasizes the importance of increasing income and reducing volatility in a low interest rate environment, suggesting that income can be enhanced by broadening asset types, while volatility can be managed through refined risk management tools [17][18][29] Group 2 - The report discusses the shift in risk preferences, noting that in recent years, investor sentiment has polarized, but there is now a trend of returning to a more balanced risk appetite [15][42] - It suggests that low-volatility strategies should incorporate more flexibility, while high-volatility strategies need to focus on risk control, indicating a shift in investment focus towards mid-cap blue-chip stocks and commodities like gold [44][45] Group 3 - The report outlines a dual approach to asset allocation: passive strategies as a shield for risk diversification and active strategies as a sword for enhancing returns, particularly in the context of low interest rates and changing market dynamics [46][47] - It recommends focusing on commodities, overseas assets, and alternative investments like REITs to achieve better risk-adjusted returns in the current market environment [52][54]

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 政策更细化，方向更聚焦——学习中央经 济工作会议精神 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 12 日 | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 黄汝南 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120004 | | | huangrunan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 服务消费提振核心 CPI：2025 年 11 月通胀 | 2025-12-11 | | --- | --- | | 点评 | | | 淡 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a defensive investment strategy, suggesting to wait for better timing to enter the market as adjustments increase [6] - The mechanical industry is projected to achieve stable growth in 2025, reflecting the enhancement of China's manufacturing capabilities, with a focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks that show potential for both stable growth and technological advancement [6] - The "ice and snow economy" is evolving from a niche seasonal activity into a vibrant trillion-yuan industry, with significant regional developments and policy support [6] Market Strategy - The market is experiencing a rebound that faces resistance, with participants adopting a more conservative mindset as trading willingness decreases [6] - It is advised to focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks in sectors with improving marginal demand, particularly in advanced manufacturing and electronics [6] - Relevant ETFs include the CSI Cash Flow ETF and various sector-specific ETFs [6] Industry Strategy - The mechanical industry is expected to maintain steady demand growth into 2026, with an increasing importance of technological empowerment [6] - Key areas for investment include lithium battery equipment, industrial mother machines, oil and gas equipment, and engineering machinery [6] - Recommended stocks include CIMC Vehicles and Hangcha Group, with associated ETFs for further investment options [6] Thematic Strategy - The ice and snow economy is characterized by a shift from northern regional activities to a nationwide resonance, with southern regions developing large indoor ski facilities [6] - There is a growing trend of integrating local cultural elements into winter sports, supported by government policies aimed at promoting the ice and snow economy [6] - Relevant ETFs for this sector include tourism ETFs [6]

Inflation Overview - November CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, while core CPI rose by 1.2%, compared to previous values of 0.2% and 1.2% respectively[6] - Food CPI rebounded significantly from -2.9% to 0.2% year-on-year due to adverse weather conditions affecting agricultural products[6] Core CPI Insights - The stable core CPI is noteworthy, with service CPI growth only slightly narrowing to 0.7% year-on-year, indicating resilience in service consumption[6] - Tourism-related CPI maintained a high growth rate of 2% year-on-year, reflecting the impact of holiday consumption despite seasonal adjustments[6] Market Dynamics - Industrial consumer goods CPI, excluding energy, rose by 2.1% year-on-year, indicating sustained demand in key sectors[6] - PPI experienced a wider year-on-year decline, primarily due to falling prices in upstream raw material industries, but is expected to stabilize in the long term[6] Future Outlook - The impact of pig prices on CPI is anticipated to weaken, as the decline in pig prices is expected to narrow[6] - The overall inflation data suggests a positive trend towards optimizing market conditions to enhance consumer satisfaction and economic stability[6] Risk Factors - There is a risk of unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices due to geopolitical conflicts, which could impact inflation dynamics[6]

温氏股份 300498.SZ 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 生猪出栏创新高，黄鸡景气盈利延续 ——温氏股份 11 月销售简报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 2025-2027 年 EPS 为 1.01/1.62/2.35 元（原 25-26 年预测分别为 1.91/1.93 元，主要由于 24 年行业盈利后提升产能利用率导致周期波动，调整了营收 和毛利率），根据可比公司估值法，给予公司26年14x估值，对应目标价22.68元， 维持"买入评级"。 风险提示 畜禽价格不及预期；畜禽疫病大规模爆发；原材料价格大幅波动；投资收益及公允价值 波动风险。 | | 买入（维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年12月10日） | 16.86 元 | | 目标价格 | 22.68 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 19.88/15.11 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 665,393/596,271 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 112,185 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 农业 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 12 月 11 日 | | ...

Core Insights - The mechanical equipment industry is expected to experience stable growth in 2026, driven by domestic policy support and the increasing importance of technology empowerment, particularly benefiting mid-cap blue-chip companies [3][8][15] - Key investment opportunities are identified in eight sub-sectors: lithium battery equipment, industrial mother machines, oil and gas equipment, forklift equipment, machinery for overseas markets, engineering machinery, coal machinery, and light industrial equipment [3][18] - The humanoid robot sector is approaching a production inflection point, presenting investment opportunities for mid-cap blue-chip companies within this segment [3][8] Sub-sector Summaries 1. Lithium Battery Equipment - The lithium battery equipment sector is showing signs of recovery, with a significant increase in new orders, reflecting a growth trend [19][21] - The industry is expected to benefit from the development of solid-state batteries, with commercial production anticipated by 2027, leading to increased demand for related equipment [23][25] 2. Industrial Mother Machines - The industrial mother machine sector is projected to maintain stable growth, supported by favorable policies and increasing domestic demand [27][29] - The market is expected to see improvements in profitability as the demand for high-end CNC machines increases, with a current low penetration rate of domestic products [30] 3. Oil and Gas Equipment - The oil and gas equipment sector faced challenges in 2025 but is expected to recover in 2026 due to policy support and increasing demand [33][35] - The sector is likely to benefit from the growing demand for gas turbines driven by the rapid construction of data centers [35][36] 4. Forklift Equipment - The forklift industry demonstrated resilience in 2025, with sales growth driven by domestic and international demand [39][41] - The introduction of AI-powered products is expected to create new growth opportunities in the sector [46] 5. Machinery for Overseas Markets - The machinery sector for overseas markets faced challenges in 2025 but is anticipated to recover in 2026 as U.S. demand improves [49][57] - Companies are expected to enhance their profitability through cost management strategies and product optimization [57] 6. Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing growth driven by both domestic and international markets, with significant sales increases in excavators [59][61] - The sector is expected to benefit from ongoing infrastructure projects and the replacement of aging equipment [61][62] 7. Coal Machinery - The coal machinery sector is under pressure in 2025 but is projected to improve in 2026 as market conditions stabilize [68]

Core Insights - The defense industry is expected to experience a recovery in 2025, marking a turning point in demand, with a new round of growth anticipated as the "14th Five-Year Plan" concludes and the "15th Five-Year Plan" begins [2][8][24] - The focus on new combat capabilities, including unmanned systems, deep-sea technology, and military AI, is expected to drive significant advancements in the industry [2][8][32] - The commercial aerospace and gas turbine markets are projected to grow, driven by increased demand and recovery in the aviation sector post-pandemic [2][8][31] Group 1: Industry Overview - The defense industry has stabilized and is showing signs of recovery after a period of demand stagnation from 2023 to 2024, with revenue growth returning in 2025 [8][14] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to create synergies between military and civilian sectors, enhancing overall industry growth [8][29] - Geopolitical uncertainties are increasing, leading to heightened military spending globally, with defense budgets expected to continue rising [26][30] Group 2: New Combat Capabilities - New combat capabilities are expected to focus on unmanned systems, deep-sea operations, and information technology, with an emphasis on modernizing military capabilities [2][32][36] - The development of unmanned systems is seen as critical, with a growing emphasis on both offensive and defensive capabilities in modern warfare [2][43][44] - The integration of AI into military operations is expected to enhance decision-making and operational efficiency across various combat scenarios [2][32][36] Group 3: Commercial Opportunities - The commercial aerospace sector is poised for significant growth, particularly in the gas turbine market, driven by increased orders and recovery in engine deliveries [2][31][32] - The commercial space sector is also expanding, with advancements in satellite technology and launch capabilities expected to accelerate growth [2][31][32] - The military trade market is anticipated to strengthen, with Chinese equipment gaining recognition and market share in international markets, particularly in the Middle East [2][31][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 14.03 CNY [3][6]. Core Insights - The company has seen a significant increase in new energy vehicle sales, with a year-on-year growth of 54.7% in cumulative sales for the first 11 months [11]. - The establishment of a subsidiary to enter the robotics sector indicates a strategic move towards diversifying its business model [11]. - The company is expected to gradually turn profitable in its self-owned brand segment, supported by a steady global expansion [9]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 6.055 billion, 7.086 billion, and 8.291 billion CNY respectively, with a maintained average PE valuation of 23 times for comparable companies [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 180.654 billion, 200.457 billion, and 219.509 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 13.1%, 11.0%, and 9.5% respectively [5][12]. - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 16.2% in 2025 to 17.4% in 2027, while the net profit margin is projected to increase from 3.4% to 3.8% over the same period [5][12]. Sales Performance - In November, the company's overall sales reached 284,200 units, marking a 2.5% year-on-year increase and a 2.1% month-on-month increase [11]. - The company's new energy vehicle sales reached a record high in November, with 12,620 units sold, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.3% [11].

Group 1: Export Performance - In November, exports saw a significant year-on-year increase of 5.9%, rebounding from a previous decline of -1.1%[6] - Exports to the US decreased by 28.6% year-on-year, indicating ongoing weakness in consumer goods exports[6] - Non-US regions showed resilience in import demand, particularly in capital goods, which outperformed consumer goods[6] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The demand for investment-related equipment remains a core driver of export recovery, especially in non-US markets[6] - The AI-related processing trade chain between China and other Asian regions continues to boost exports, with significant increases in integrated circuit exports[6] - The reduction of tariffs on fentanyl by the US has not diminished the confidence of Chinese manufacturers in expanding overseas[6] Group 3: EU Export Trends - Exports to the EU surged by 14.8% year-on-year in November, marking the highest growth rate for the year[6] - The sustainability of this growth is uncertain, as it may be driven by preemptive imports ahead of the upcoming carbon tax legislation in January 2026[6] - Overall, the export structure remains unchanged, with limited recovery expected in consumer goods exports until the end of Q1 next year[6]