资产配置 | 动态跟踪 资产配置策略中低波分化，行业策略转向 ——资产配置模型月报 202512 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 03 日 | 王晶 | 执业证书编号：S0860510120030 | | --- | --- | | | wangjing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63325888*6072 | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | | 资产配置不仅仅是风险分散：——主动型 | 2025-11-27 | | --- | --- | | 资产配置新思路 | | | 全天候模型仓位平稳，行业策略推荐科技/ | 2025-11-03 | | 有色/新能源等板块：——资产配置模型月 | | | 报 202511 | | | 关注权益和商品机会：——资产配置月报 | 2025-11-01 | | 202511 | | | 大类资产仓位平稳，行业策略推荐有色/科 | 2025-10-11 | | 技等板块：——资产配置模型月报 202510 | | | 大类资产风险可控，短期关注交易特征： | 2025-09-29 | | ——"2+1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 70.9 CNY based on a 19x PE ratio for 2026 [5]. Core Insights - The company has secured a second data center order in North America, enhancing growth certainty and potential for additional business opportunities [3][8]. - The new order is expected to accelerate the company's strategic development in the data center sector, leveraging its comprehensive Gas to Power solution capabilities [8]. - The report anticipates continued growth in the company's power segment, supported by the increasing demand for electricity in the North American AI industry [8]. Financial Forecasts - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 31.53 billion CNY, 38.18 billion CNY, and 44.64 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [3]. - Revenue forecasts indicate a growth from 13.91 billion CNY in 2023 to 22.68 billion CNY by 2027, with a notable increase of 27.4% in 2025 [4][10]. - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 32.8% in 2023 to 35.3% in 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [4][10]. Market Performance - The company's stock has shown strong performance, with a 93.47% increase over the past year [6]. - The stock price as of December 3, 2025, was 65.91 CNY, with a 52-week range of 26.91 CNY to 65.91 CNY [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 6.44 [3][7] Core Views - The automotive electronics business is developing healthily, with a comprehensive customer base covering over 70% of global vehicle brands [10] - The company has completed the industrial chain layout for integrated modules, including sensor, touch module, and display modules for automotive applications [10] - The company is expanding into new fields such as UTG (Ultra-Thin Glass) and UFG (Ultra-Flexible Glass), which are expected to open up growth opportunities [10] - The subsidiary, Changxin Zhikuan, focuses on AI computing power services, with revenue exceeding RMB 60 million, and aims to build a comprehensive service capability in the AI computing sector [10] Financial Summary - The company’s projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are RMB 0.16, 0.23, and 0.31 respectively, with adjustments made to revenue and gross margin forecasts [3][11] - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 8,889 million in 2023 to RMB 18,792 million in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 23% [5] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 10.2% in 2023 to 12.9% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from RMB 242 million in 2023 to RMB 777 million in 2027, with a significant growth rate of 36% in 2027 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 54.23 CNY based on a 29x PE valuation for 2026 [4][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.79 billion, 3.59 billion, and 4.39 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment in revenue and gross margin forecasts for its electronic components and communication parts businesses [4][10]. - The report highlights the positive impact of AI on the passive components industry, with increased demand for MLCCs driven by AI server requirements, which are significantly higher than traditional servers [9]. - The company is positioned well in the MLCC market with a comprehensive product matrix that caters to various sectors, including mobile communication and new energy [9]. Financial Summary - The company's projected revenue for 2025 is 9.39 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 27.3%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 13.55 billion CNY, growing at 19.2% [6]. - The gross margin is forecasted to improve from 39.8% in 2023 to 46.7% in 2027, while the net profit margin is expected to rise from 27.6% to 32.4% over the same period [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.82 CNY in 2023 to 2.29 CNY in 2027 [6].

宏观经济 | 专题报告 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 02 日 | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙国翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 戴思崴 | 执业证书编号：S0860525040001 | | | daisiwei@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 难有高增长，或有超预期 消费会成为 2026 年宏观热点吗？ 研究结论 内需增速放缓，看好增长质量：10 月经济 数据点评 2025-11-15 为"并跑领跑"时代构筑制度根基：宏观 角度看四中全会与"十五五 ...

Market Strategy - The report expresses cautious optimism regarding the market outlook for December, anticipating a potential rebound due to improving economic fundamentals and macro liquidity conditions, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][7] - It emphasizes the importance of adjusting portfolios based on style and trading factors, suggesting a focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks while being prepared for potential volatility [3][7] Industry Strategy - In the home appliance sector, the report identifies three main investment themes: capitalizing on the interest rate cut cycle, structural upgrades, and the competitive advantages of leading companies amid rising costs and slowing domestic sales [5][7] - The report notes that while the overall market for white goods is under pressure, leading brands are gaining market share due to improved operational efficiency and better end-market adaptability [5][7] Theme Strategy - The establishment of a dedicated regulatory body for commercial aerospace by the National Space Administration is highlighted as a significant development, expected to foster high-quality growth in the industry [6][7] - The report outlines the acceleration of collaborative development between rockets and satellites, with advancements in reusable rocket technology and increased satellite production capabilities [6][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is unlikely to replicate the situation at the end of 2020. The current credit risk event is unlikely to significantly change market expectations or prompt institutions such as banks and insurance companies to accelerate their entry into the bond market, and it may not change the main trading line of interest rate bonds [6][9][16]. - In December, the pressure on the capital market is expected to be controllable, but the overall trading opportunities in the bond market are still limited. The supply pressure of government bonds is controllable, and fiscal spending tends to increase at the end of the year. The bond market may continue its weak and volatile pattern, and the trading space is narrow [6][16]. Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market Weekly Viewpoint - Some investors compare Vanke's debt extension to Yongmei's default, believing that the bond market will replicate the situation at the end of 2020. However, the impact of Yongmei's default was mainly due to the panic after the collapse of the "state - owned enterprise belief" and the negative feedback of fund products, which is less likely to happen now. The central bank responds quickly to credit risk events, and this event is unlikely to change market expectations significantly [6][9][16]. - In 2020, after Yongmei's default, the credit bond market was sold off, leading to a marginal tightening of the capital market and a significant adjustment of interest rate bonds. There was a negative feedback in the fund product market. The central bank increased liquidity injection, and the market gradually stabilized after the financial regulatory authorities' statement [10][11][15]. - In contrast, Vanke's debt - extension has a lower panic - causing effect, and the probability of credit risk spreading to the interest rate and capital markets is weak. The capital market pressure in December is expected to be controllable, but the bond market trading opportunities are limited [16]. 2. This Week's Focus Points in the Fixed - Income Market 2.1 Next Week's Overseas Data - This week, important data will be released, including China's November foreign exchange reserves, the US November PMI, November ADP employment figures, and the Eurozone's November PMI and October PPI monthly rate [17][19]. 2.2 This Week's Interest Rate Bond Issuance - This week, the interest rate bond issuance scale is expected to be 456.7 billion yuan, which is at a medium level compared to the same period. Among them, the issuance scale of treasury bonds is expected to be about 218 billion yuan, local bonds are planned to be issued at 108.7 billion yuan, and policy - financial bonds are expected to be issued at about 130 billion yuan [19][20][21]. 3. Interest Rate Bond Review and Outlook 3.1 Reverse Repurchase Net Withdrawal - This week, the reverse repurchase net withdrawal was 16.42 billion yuan. The MLF was injected with 1 trillion yuan and 900 billion yuan matured. The treasury deposit was increased by 12 billion yuan, and the central bank bills were offset. The total net injection of open - market operations was 5.58 billion yuan. The capital interest rate showed a structural differentiation, and the repurchase trading volume decreased [26][27]. - The certificate of deposit issuance increased slightly, the net financing was negative, the short - term issuance interest rate increased, and the long - term secondary yield was relatively stable [33]. 3.2 Interest Rates of All Maturities Rose - Last week, due to the unstable liability side of fixed - income products and market concerns about the new fund regulations, the interest rate market adjusted. In the second half of the week, long - term bonds led the marginal repair of spot bonds. The yields of 10 - year treasury bonds and CDB bonds increased by 1.7bp and 2.5bp respectively. The yields of treasury bonds of all maturities increased, with the 7 - year treasury bond yield rising the most, by about 3.8bp [42][45]. 4. High - Frequency Data - On the production side, most operating rates declined. The blast furnace operating rate, semi - steel tire operating rate, and PTA operating rate decreased, while the asphalt operating rate increased. The average daily crude steel output in mid - November had a negative year - on - year growth rate of - 12.5% [6][54]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car wholesale and retail improved. The year - on - year decline in commercial housing transaction area slightly narrowed. The SCFI and CCFI comprehensive indices changed by 0.7% and - 0.1% respectively [6][54][57]. - In terms of prices, crude oil, copper, and aluminum prices increased. The coking coal price decreased by 4.4%. The building materials comprehensive price index, cement index, and glass index increased. The rebar output decreased, and the inventory continued to decline to 3.85 million tons. The prices of vegetables, fruits, and pork changed by 1.9%, 1.8%, and - 0.4% respectively [6][57].

计算机行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 太空算力未来可期，关注核心收益环节 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 我们认为 AI 算力以及卫星信息基础设施相关标的都有望受益太空算力的发展： AI 算力：海光信息(688041，买入)、寒武纪-U(688256，未评级)； 卫星基础设施：中科星图(688568，未评级)、佳缘科技(301117，未评级)、航天宏图 (688066，增持)、盛邦安全(688651，未评级)。 风险提示 研发进展不及预期； 商业化进展不及预期。 国家/地区 中国 行业 计算机行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 02 日 看好（维持） | 陈超 | 执业证书编号：S0860521050002 | | --- | --- | | | chenchao3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 浦俊懿 | 执业证书编号：S0860514050004 | | | pujunyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 宋鑫宇 | 执业证书编号：S0860524090002 | | | songxinyu@orient ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][9] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in the first half of FY2026, with a notable performance in its main product line, down jackets, which showed resilience during the off-season [8] - The company’s revenue and profit are projected to accelerate in the second half of FY2026, supported by favorable inventory levels and an extended sales season due to the late Chinese New Year [8] - The company aims to maintain sustainable growth over the next three years through a dual-focus strategy on its down jacket core business and a multi-brand matrix [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY2024A is projected at 23,214 million, with a year-on-year growth of 38.4%, and is expected to reach 34,759 million by FY2028E, with a CAGR of approximately 10.6% [3] - Operating profit is forecasted to grow from 4,398 million in FY2024A to 6,711 million in FY2028E, reflecting a steady increase in profitability [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 3,074 million in FY2024A to 4,879 million in FY2028E, with a CAGR of 11.8% [3] - Earnings per share are projected to increase from 0.26 in FY2024A to 0.42 in FY2028E [3] Valuation Metrics - The target price is set at 6.36 HKD, based on a 17x PE ratio for FY2026 [3][9] - The company’s PE ratio is expected to decrease from 17.1 in FY2024A to 10.7 in FY2028E, indicating improving valuation attractiveness [3] - The PB ratio is projected to decline from 4.0 in FY2024A to 2.5 in FY2028E, suggesting a potential undervaluation over the forecast period [3]

商业航天司成立，商业航天高质量安全发 展行动计划发布，有望进入快速发展阶段 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 国防军工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 国家/地区 中国 行业 国防军工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 01 日 看好（维持） | 罗楠 | 执业证书编号：S0860518100001 | | --- | --- | | | luonan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 冯函 | 执业证书编号：S0860520070002 | | | fenghan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 鲍丙文 | 执业证书编号：S0860124070016 | | --- | --- | | | baobingwen@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 亚太局势不确定性加剧，我国装备建设或 | | --- | | 将提速，关注新质战斗力 | | | --- | --- | | 无人僚机攻击-11 公开亮相，朱雀三号可回 | 2025-11-16 | | 收火箭即将首飞，关注新质 ...