宏观经济 | 专题报告 美国：科技驱动下的"无就业增长"经济 初探 研究结论 风险提示 经济基本面走向的不确定性。降息落地进度不及预期的风险。 地缘政治形势走向的不确定性，影响风险偏好和商品价格。 假设条件发生变化影响测算结果的风险。 报告发布日期 2025 年 10 月 20 日 | 王仲尧 | 执业证书编号：S0860518050001 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BQJ932 | | | wangzhongyao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 吴泽青 | 执业证书编号：S0860524100001 | | | wuzeqing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙金霞 | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | TACO2.0 交易展望： — — 海外札记 | 2025-10-13 | | --- | --- | | 20251013 | | | 美国政府关门：数据 ...

Group 1 - The report concludes that the adjustment space for the index is limited, maintaining a judgment of sideways fluctuations and continued strength. The recent market pullback is attributed to strong short-term profit-taking motivation and a cautious stance amid uncertainties between China and the US. However, the report believes that the factors driving profit-taking are temporary, and the attractiveness of the equity market and long-term investor confidence remain unchanged. It is anticipated that the situation between China and the US will stabilize, with limited adverse effects on the market [3][12]. Group 2 - The report emphasizes continued high attention to technology as the main theme for investment opportunities. It suggests focusing on low-positioned self-controlled sectors (such as software), technology related to the 14th Five-Year Plan (including quantum technology, deep-sea economy, and brain-computer interfaces), and innovative pharmaceuticals. The report advises avoiding equipment-related sectors and previously high-performing technology companies, which have seen significant pullbacks recently. This ongoing correction is expected to enhance the attractiveness of core companies within these sectors, gradually attracting funds for reallocation [4][13]. Group 3 - In non-technology sectors, the report expresses a positive outlook on strategic metals, ranking them as follows: gold > rare earths and other minor metals > copper. For gold, the dual benefits of deteriorating fiat currency credit and safe-haven demand are expected to continue driving prices, despite short-term pullback risks. The strategic value of rare earths is anticipated to rise due to upgraded export controls on items and technologies. In the case of copper, demand is expected to increase in the medium term due to global grid upgrades, data center expansions, and the proliferation of electric vehicles, while ongoing disruptions in upstream mining will significantly exacerbate supply shortages, leading to a potential rise in copper prices [5][14].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that despite the postponement of the IMO net-zero framework vote, the trend towards green and low-carbon industries remains unchanged. The opposition mainly comes from the US and oil-producing countries in the Middle East, while the EU and China are aligned in their support for the framework. This indicates that even if the framework is not fully implemented globally, significant markets like the EU and China will still see good development opportunities [7] - The report highlights the potential for a recovery in the petrochemical and chemical industries driven by "anti-involution" policies, with key stocks including Sinopec, Hengli Petrochemical, and Wanhua Chemical being recommended for investment [3] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report recommends investing in Wankai New Materials (301216) for its leading position in the green polyester industry. It also suggests buying stocks in pesticide formulation companies like Runfeng Co. (301035), Guoguang Co. (002749), and Hailier (603639), which are less affected by trade disputes. Additionally, it identifies several petrochemical companies, including Sinopec (600028), Hengli Petrochemical (600346), and Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493), as potential beneficiaries of the expected industry recovery [3] Industry Development Trends - The report discusses the impact of the IMO meeting on green methanol expectations, noting that while there are concerns about market development certainty, the overall growth of the green low-carbon industry is expected to continue. The report points out that the development of green aviation fuel (SAF) and recycled plastics will not be affected by the IMO vote delay, as these areas are driven by global decarbonization policies and environmental concerns [7]

特步国际 01368.HK 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 ⚫ 我们维持对公司的盈利预测，考虑到股本的变动，预计公司 2025-2027 年每股收益 分别为 0.49、0.56 元和 0.62 元。参考可比公司，给予公司 2025 年 15 倍 PE 估值， 对应目标价 8.01 港币（1 人民币=1.09 港币），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示： 行业竞争加剧，可选消费复苏不及预期，新品牌增长低于预期等 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 14,346 | 13,577 | 14,452 | 15,795 | 17,244 | | 同比增长(%) | 10.9% | -5.4% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 9.2% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1,580 | 1,966 | 1,980 | 2,309 | 2,593 | | 同比增长(%) | 7.9% | 24.4% | 0.7% | 16.6% | 12.3% | | 归属母公司净利 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Views - The report highlights a significant reduction in pig production, with a focus on the long-term performance improvement in the pig farming sector due to recent policies and market dynamics [3][7] - The report identifies various investment opportunities across different segments of the agriculture industry, including pig farming, feed, planting, and pet food sectors [3][54] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The report indicates a confirmed trend of capacity reduction in the pig farming industry, driven by weak prices and policy support [7] - In September, 13 listed pig companies collectively reported a pig output of 13.7586 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 8.65% but a year-on-year increase of 18.31% [11] - The average selling price of pigs has dropped significantly, with most companies reporting a price decline of around 30% year-on-year [12][13] Feed Sector - The report notes that raw material prices for feed are stabilizing at the bottom, with fluctuations in prices for corn, wheat, and soybean meal [40] - As of October 17, corn prices averaged 2263.14 yuan/ton, down 1.78%, while wheat prices increased slightly to 2451.94 yuan/ton [40] Planting Chain - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the planting and seed industry, with a confirmed upward trend in grain prices [3][54] Pet Food Sector - The pet food industry is experiencing growth, with increasing recognition of domestic brands and a favorable market environment [3][54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector in China [5] Core Views - The report indicates that the risk of rising coal prices is limited, and pessimistic expectations regarding electricity prices are easing [2] - The utility sector is showing defensive attributes, with low-priced utility assets worth attention [8] - The report suggests that the electricity market will gradually allow for better pricing of electricity commodities as the market becomes more complex [8] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report expresses optimism for the utility sector, highlighting that low interest rates and policy encouragement for long-term capital investment make dividend assets a worthwhile long-term allocation [8] - It identifies specific investment targets within thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, and wind/solar energy sectors, suggesting companies like Guodian Power (国电电力), China Yangtze Power (长江电力), and China General Nuclear Power (中国广核) as potential investments [8] Industry Dynamics - The report notes significant increases in spot electricity prices in Shandong, Guangdong, and Shanxi, with year-on-year increases of 27.1%, 34.2%, and 55.1% respectively [11] - It highlights that coal prices have risen sharply due to abnormal weather conditions, but the upward price potential is expected to be limited in the future [8] - The report also mentions that the average outflow from the Three Gorges Reservoir has increased significantly, indicating improved hydropower generation conditions [39] Market Performance - The utility sector index has outperformed the broader market indices, with a decline of only 0.7% compared to a 2.2% drop in the CSI 300 index [46] - Within the utility sub-sectors, hydropower showed the highest weekly increase of 1.7%, while wind and solar sectors experienced declines [48]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [5] Core Viewpoints - The multi-modal industry is experiencing rapid iteration this year, with improvements in both lower and upper limits of technology, impacting product and commercialization [2] - There is a trend of product path differentiation, with companies like Google and Kuaishou focusing on different user segments, leading to accelerated commercial applications [2] - The industry is expected to expand significantly due to increased user growth, payment penetration, and commercialization [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The multi-modal technology sector is seeing significant advancements, with major players like OpenAI and Google updating their video models, enhancing capabilities in narrative and visual quality [7] - The introduction of OpenAI's Sora app has rapidly increased user engagement, indicating a shift towards consumer-oriented applications [7] Investment Recommendations - Emphasis is placed on vertical multi-modal AI application opportunities, particularly those with international expansion strategies, which may experience faster growth [3] - Recommended stocks include Kuaishou-W (01024, Buy), Meitu Inc. (01357, Buy), and Wanjun Technology (300624, Not Rated) [3] - Attention is advised on major companies like Alibaba-W (09988, Buy) and Tencent Holdings (00700, Buy) for their potential revenue growth and valuation restructuring [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - Despite the intensification of short-term trade frictions, domestic component manufacturers are investing in overseas production capacity, and humanoid robots are expected to enter mass production, indicating that the impact of trade frictions is limited. The humanoid robot sector is poised for a strategic opportunity [3][8] - The leading companies in the humanoid robot sector are expected to accelerate mass production, with Tesla's CEO announcing plans for the third-generation humanoid robot, Optimus, to begin production in early 2026, aiming for a monthly output of 100,000 units within five years. This reflects the maturity of robot products and signals a new phase of mass production in the industry [8] Summary by Sections Trade Friction Impact - The report indicates that the impact of trade frictions on humanoid robots is minimal, with the sector presenting a good opportunity for investment [8] - Domestic companies are actively establishing overseas production bases, reducing uncertainties in the supply chain due to trade tensions [8] Industry Trends - The report highlights that the leading companies, such as Tesla, are driving the industry towards mass production, with significant support from the domestic supply chain [8] - The report emphasizes the strong manufacturing capabilities of domestic component companies, which are expected to benefit from the upcoming mass production phase [3][8] Investment Targets - Recommended investment targets include Top Group (601689, Buy), Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050, Buy), Wuzhou New Spring (603667, Buy), Hengli Hydraulic (601100, Not Rated), and Zhenyu Technology (300953, Buy) [3]

Investment Trends - The core contradiction in investment this year is a significant decline in "expansion" investment, which has decreased by 40 percentage points compared to the end of last year, dropping from 33.6% to -6.2% in the first eight months of this year[10] - "New construction" investment has a larger weight (estimated at about 70%) and is projected to show a small increase, reflecting changes in the real estate sector[7] - The total amount of "two重" funds from special long-term bonds is estimated at 700 billion yuan, accounting for 1.4 percentage points of the total fixed asset investment of over 50 trillion yuan in 2023[19] Economic Outlook - The expected support from special long-term bonds in 2024 and 2025 is likely to exceed this year's impact, alleviating growth pressure on expansion investments[7] - The decline in investment is not necessarily negative; it reflects a more rational allocation of resources and the ongoing transition between old and new growth drivers[23] - The overall investment growth rate is expected to stabilize, with a potential slight negative growth this year, but a rebound is anticipated next year[7] Risks and Challenges - Risks include the potential for export growth to exceed expectations due to year-end demand, geopolitical tensions affecting global industrial patterns, and the impact of "anti-involution" policies on domestic demand[43] - Data calculation errors may affect the accuracy of conclusions drawn from investment statistics, particularly in fixed asset investment[43]

Inflation Trends - Core CPI in September increased by 0.9% year-on-year, continuing its upward trend, significantly outperforming the overall CPI which decreased by 0.3% due to falling pork prices[6] - Industrial consumer goods prices rose by 1.8%, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth, driven partly by rising prices of gold and copper[6] Price Dynamics - Gold jewelry and platinum prices increased by 42.1% and 33.6% year-on-year, respectively, reflecting the impact of international commodity price fluctuations[6] - The PPI decline narrowed to 2.3% year-on-year in September, with significant contributions from coal processing and black metal smelting industries, reducing the downward pressure on PPI by approximately 0.34 percentage points[6] Consumer Behavior - The shift from a "price war" to a "value war" in consumer goods indicates an improvement in supply quality, with household appliance CPI trends diverging from copper price movements[6] - Strong demand for personalized and upgraded products is evident, with prices for certain categories like arts and crafts increasing by 14.7% year-on-year[6] Economic Outlook - The report suggests that the main drivers of economic growth are shifting from external demand to high-quality domestic demand, indicating a structural transformation in the economy[6] - Future inflation dynamics will largely depend on internal policies, with expectations for continued support for domestic demand through fiscal and monetary measures[6]