Group 1: Inflation Trends - July CPI year-on-year growth was 0%, while core CPI growth was 0.8%, compared to previous values of 0.1% and 0.7% respectively[5] - Food prices are expected to exert downward pressure on CPI, with July food CPI at -1.6%[5] - The core CPI is anticipated to continue rising due to policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and improving living standards[5] Group 2: Policy Impact - Policies promoting consumption are expected to support high-end consumer goods and high-tech industries, maintaining elevated price indices[5] - The construction of a unified market and enhanced competition review is projected to help traditional and emerging industries recover prices[5] - The "anti-involution" policies are broadening their impact across various sectors, leading to positive changes in PPI, especially in technology and domestic demand-driven sectors[5] Group 3: PPI Performance - July PPI for certain sectors like arts and crafts, sports equipment, and nutritional food manufacturing showed year-on-year growth of at least 1.3%[5] - However, PPI in the mining sector remains under pressure, with July mining PPI at -14%[5] - External trade environment deterioration is causing PPI declines in key export sectors, with July PPI for general equipment manufacturing at -1.6%[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The current period is seen as an investment opportunity for the gold sector, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [8][12][13] - Economic indicators suggest that maintaining high growth is challenging, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts [14] - The impact of tariffs is becoming evident, with expectations of rising inflation due to the depletion of low-cost inventories [15] Summary by Sections Gold Sector - The gold sector is viewed as a timely investment opportunity, with recent employment data indicating a shift towards lower growth expectations, enhancing the likelihood of interest rate cuts [13][14] - The average tariff rate in the U.S. has reached 20.1%, which is expected to further influence inflation in the coming quarters [15] Steel Sector - The steel industry is experiencing short-term profit fluctuations but is expected to stabilize and recover in the medium term due to the "anti-involution" policy [16] - Steel consumption has increased by 3.63% week-on-week, while production has shown a mixed trend with a notable rise in rebar production [21][18] - Overall steel inventory has risen, but structural improvements in demand are anticipated [23] - The cost of steel production is expected to stabilize, with short-term cost reduction potential diminishing [27] - Steel prices are projected to continue rising, supported by the "anti-involution" policy [36] New Energy Metals - The production of lithium carbonate in June 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 20.95%, indicating strong supply dynamics [41] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales showing substantial growth [45] - Prices for lithium, cobalt, and nickel have generally increased, reflecting strong market conditions [50]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The implementation of the "One Certificate, One Product" policy for pesticides is expected to optimize the domestic formulation landscape in the medium to long term, addressing the issue of "one certificate, multiple products" that has led to chaotic competition in the market [8][14] - The "anti-involution" policy is seen as a significant guiding policy for the manufacturing sector, aiming to eliminate unfair competition and establish a stable foundation for long-term industry growth [8][14] Summary by Sections Pesticide Formulation - The report highlights the competitive advantages of leading companies in the domestic pesticide formulation sector, recommending stocks such as Guoguang Co., Ltd. (002749, Buy), Hailier (603639, Buy), and Nuo Puxin (002215, Not Rated) [3] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to drive structural opportunities for pesticide exports, with a focus on improving industry fundamentals [7] Market Trends - As of August 8, Brent crude oil prices decreased by 4.42% to $66.59 per barrel, influenced by increased supply from OPEC+ [10] - The price of formic acid surged by 28.6%, driven by tight market supply and strong demand, particularly in export markets [11][12] Price Movements - The report notes significant price increases for formic acid, liquid chlorine, and international urea, while crude oil and WTI prices saw notable declines [11][15] - PTA price spread increased by 224.7%, attributed to a decrease in PX prices due to falling international oil prices [15][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the real estate industry in China [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the recovery of the real estate sector and stock prices does not solely depend on the timing of policy implementation, but rather on the decline of the risk-free interest rate and the reduction of industry risk assessments [2][3]. - The real estate sector is entering a new bottoming phase, with the influence of the denominator (risk-free rate) now outweighing the numerator (fundamental factors), which is expected to lead to a rebound in stock prices [2]. - Confidence in national governance will bolster investor trust in policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [2]. Summary by Sections Policy Developments - Beijing's recent policy changes, including the relaxation of purchase restrictions outside the Fifth Ring Road and increased support for housing provident funds, signal a positive shift for the market [4]. - The new policy is expected to stimulate demand in suburban areas, where over 80% of new residential sales occur, aiding in inventory reduction [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on specific stocks: China Merchants Shekou (001979, Buy), Poly Developments (600048, Buy), Beike-W (02423, Buy), Longfor Group (00960, Buy), and Gemdale Corporation (600383, Accumulate) [9].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the market has shown resilience, with a rapid recovery that exceeded some investors' expectations, leading to increased confidence [3][14][15] - It is anticipated that market confidence will continue to rise, with the expectation that indices will reach new highs throughout the year, viewing short-term pullbacks as part of an upward trend [4][15] - The technology sector is identified as a key investment theme, with a strong belief that it will continue to lead economic growth, particularly through advancements in artificial intelligence [5][16] Group 2 - Short-term focus is recommended on strong sub-themes within the technology sector, including robotics, liquid cooling, military information technology, and commercial satellites, which are expected to see significant developments and events [6][17] - The report highlights the potential of AI applications, particularly following the release of GPT-5, which is expected to enhance user experience and narrow the gap with domestic models, indicating a growing market for AI applications [7][18] - Domestic computing power and advanced processes are emphasized as foundational for national development, with expectations of continued policy support and potential catalysts in the second half of the year [7][19]

- The report discusses the dividend prediction model for the August contracts of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures, with predicted dividend points of 1.02, 1.66, 3.49, and 2.45 respectively[5][9] - The annualized hedging costs for the August contracts of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures, excluding dividends and calculated on a 365-day basis, are 5.90%, 8.26%, 17.00%, and 19.43% respectively[5][9] - The report suggests that investors should focus on the potential for basis repair in the SSE 50 index futures due to its significant discount, and consider long arbitrage opportunities while controlling position size and holding period[6][9] - For the CSI 300 index futures, the report recommends monitoring the pace of discount repair and considering long arbitrage strategies with spot or ETF combinations under controlled risk conditions[6][9] - The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 index futures are noted for their deep discount levels, with annualized hedging costs of 17.00% and 19.43% respectively, and the report advises investors to focus on the potential for phase repair while assessing the associated hedging costs and volatility risks[6][9] - The process for predicting dividends involves estimating the net profit of component stocks, calculating the pre-tax total dividends for each stock, determining the impact of dividends on the index, and predicting the impact of dividends on each contract[21][23][24] - The theoretical pricing model for stock index futures is based on the no-arbitrage pricing model, considering discrete and continuous dividend distributions, with the formula for discrete dividends being $ \mathbf{D}=\sum_{\mathrm{i=1}}^{\mathrm{m}}\mathbf{D}_{\mathrm{i}}\,/(1+\phi) $ and for continuous dividends being $ (r d)(T-t) t t F S e − = $[30][31] - The remaining impact of dividends on the August contracts of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures is 0.04%, 0.04%, 0.06%, and 0.04% respectively[12] Model Backtest Results - SSE 50 index futures (IH2508), annualized hedging cost (excluding dividends, 365 days): 5.90%[10] - CSI 300 index futures (IF2508), annualized hedging cost (excluding dividends, 365 days): 8.26%[10] - CSI 500 index futures (IC2508), annualized hedging cost (excluding dividends, 365 days): 17.00%[11] - CSI 1000 index futures (IM2508), annualized hedging cost (excluding dividends, 365 days): 19.43%[12]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the return of market allocation forces, suggesting a cautious increase in credit positions, particularly in the 2-3 year range, with a potential configuration window around mid-August [4][10][11] - The expectation for the second half of the year remains a "dual bull market" for stocks and bonds, with stocks outperforming bonds, driven by market allocation dynamics [9][10] - The corporate perpetual bond market shows limited potential for excess returns in August, recommending a conservative approach with a focus on larger issuers [11][18] Group 2 - In the primary market for corporate perpetual bonds, issuance volume increased, with a total of 158 bonds issued in July, raising 171.5 billion yuan, a 9% increase from the previous month [18][19] - The financing cost for AAA and AA rated bonds decreased, with rates at 2.12% and 2.35% respectively, down 11 basis points and 18 basis points [18][19] - The sectors leading in issuance include public utilities, urban investment, and construction, with Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong being the top provinces for new bond issuance [20][21][22] Group 3 - In the secondary market, the yield on corporate perpetual bonds showed mixed results, with short-term yields remaining stable while medium to long-term yields increased, leading to passive compression of spreads [28][30] - The report notes that the majority of urban investment perpetual bonds maintained stable or slightly compressed spreads, while industrial bonds experienced slight widening [30][33] - The report highlights that the risk profile of asset-backed securities (ABS) remains attractive, with a focus on standardized underlying assets, despite limited opportunities in August [13][14]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: DFQ-FactorGCL - **Model Construction Idea**: Based on hypergraph convolutional neural networks and temporal residual contrastive learning for stock return prediction[6] - **Model Construction Process**: The model uses hypergraph convolutional neural networks to capture complex relationships between stocks and temporal residual contrastive learning to enhance prediction accuracy[6] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in capturing stock trends and improving prediction accuracy[6] Model Name: Neural ODE - **Model Construction Idea**: Reconstructing time series dynamic systems for deep learning factor mining[6] - **Model Construction Process**: The model uses ordinary differential equations to model the continuous dynamics of stock prices, allowing for more accurate factor extraction[6] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a novel approach to factor mining, improving the robustness and accuracy of predictions[6] Model Name: DFQ-FactorVAE-pro - **Model Construction Idea**: Incorporating feature selection and environmental variable modules into the FactorVAE model[6] - **Model Construction Process**: The model uses variational autoencoders with additional modules for feature selection and environmental variables to enhance stock selection[6] - **Model Evaluation**: The model improves stock selection by considering more comprehensive factors and environmental variables[6] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Beta - **Factor Construction Idea**: Bayesian compressed market Beta[16] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is constructed by compressing the market Beta using Bayesian methods to capture market sensitivity[16] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is effective in identifying stocks with high market sensitivity[12] Factor Name: Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: Average logarithmic turnover rate over the past 243 days[16] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is calculated using the average logarithmic turnover rate and its regression with the market turnover rate over the past 243 days[16] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor captures the demand for high volatility assets[12] Factor Name: Liquidity - **Factor Construction Idea**: Average logarithmic turnover rate over the past 243 days[16] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is calculated using the average logarithmic turnover rate and its regression with the market turnover rate over the past 243 days[16] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor indicates the demand for high liquidity assets[12] Factor Name: Value - **Factor Construction Idea**: Book-to-market ratio (BP) and earnings yield (EP)[16] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is calculated using the book-to-market ratio and earnings yield[16] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor shows limited recognition of value investment strategies[12] Factor Name: Growth - **Factor Construction Idea**: State-owned enterprise stock proportion[16] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is calculated using the proportion of state-owned enterprise stocks[16] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor indicates the market's attention to state-owned enterprise stocks[12] Factor Name: Cubic Size - **Factor Construction Idea**: Market capitalization power term[16] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is calculated using the market capitalization power term[16] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor shows the market's reduced attention to micro-cap stocks[12] Factor Name: Trend - **Factor Construction Idea**: EWMA with different half-lives[18] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is calculated using EWMA with half-lives of 20, 120, and 240 days, standard volatility, FF3 specific volatility, range, and maximum and minimum returns over the past 243 days[18] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor indicates the market's reduced preference for trend investment strategies[12] Factor Name: Certainty - **Factor Construction Idea**: Sales growth, institutional holding percentage, net asset growth, analyst coverage, and listing days[18] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is calculated using sales growth, institutional holding percentage, net asset growth, analyst coverage, and listing days[18] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor shows the market's reduced confidence in certainty investment strategies[12] Factor Performance Monitoring Performance in Different Index Spaces - **CSI 300 Index**: Factors like expected PEG, DELTAROE, and single-quarter EP performed well, while three-month reversal and one-month volatility performed poorly[7][24][26] - **CSI 500 Index**: Factors like one-year momentum and expected ROE change performed well, while three-month reversal and three-month institutional coverage performed poorly[7][28][30] - **CSI 800 Index**: Factors like expected ROE change and DELTAROE performed well, while one-month volatility and three-month reversal performed poorly[7][32][34] - **CSI 1000 Index**: Factors like DELTAROA and single-quarter net profit growth performed well, while public holding market value and standardized unexpected revenue performed poorly[7][36][37] - **CNI 2000 Index**: Factors like non-liquidity impact and expected PEG performed well, while public holding market value and one-month volatility performed poorly[7][39][41] - **ChiNext Index**: Factors like three-month earnings adjustment and single-quarter EP performed well, while expected net profit change and expected ROE change performed poorly[7][43][45] - **CSI All Index**: Factors like one-month UMR and one-month reversal performed well, while one-month volatility and three-month volatility performed poorly[7][47][50] Factor Backtesting Results CSI 300 Index - **Expected PEG**: 0.75% (recent week), 2.07% (recent month), 7.23% (year-to-date), 5.96% (annualized)[24] - **DELTAROE**: 0.73% (recent week), 2.19% (recent month), 7.91% (year-to-date), 5.07% (annualized)[24] - **Single-quarter EP**: 0.71% (recent week), 0.96% (recent month), 5.93% (year-to-date), 7.58% (annualized)[24] CSI 500 Index - **One-year momentum**: 0.84% (recent week), 2.33% (recent month), 3.83% (year-to-date), 3.00% (annualized)[28] - **Expected ROE change**: 0.76% (recent week), 0.28% (recent month), 6.15% (year-to-date), 7.67% (annualized)[28] - **Three-month UMR**: 0.74% (recent week), -0.38% (recent month), 0.29% (year-to-date), -1.06% (annualized)[28] CSI 800 Index - **Expected ROE change**: 0.93% (recent week), 1.76% (recent month), 2.27% (year-to-date), -3.20% (annualized)[32] - **Expected PEG**: 0.83% (recent week), 2.60% (recent month), 10.99% (year-to-date), 10.96% (annualized)[32] - **DELTAROE**: 0.79% (recent week), 2.64% (recent month), 11.60% (year-to-date), 8.99% (annualized)[32] CSI 1000 Index - **DELTAROA**: 0.63% (recent week), 1.57% (recent month), 8.06% (year-to-date), 15.10% (annualized)[36] - **Single-quarter net profit growth**: 0.57% (recent week), 1.03% (recent month), 8.04% (year-to-date), 10.77% (annualized)[36] - **One-month UMR**: 0.47% (recent week), -0.92% (recent month), 1.13% (year-to-date), -3.13% (annualized)[36] CNI 2000 Index - **Non-liquidity impact**: 1.26% (recent week), 1.99% (recent month), 12.11% (year-to-date), 21.51% (annualized)[39] - **Expected PEG**: 0.54% (recent week), 0.32% (recent month), 10.32% (year-to-date), 36.23% (annualized)[39] - **Three-month institutional coverage**: 0.54% (recent week), 4.56% (recent month), 5.41% (year-to-date), -1.19% (annualized)[39] ChiNext Index - **Three-month earnings adjustment**: 0.66% (recent week), 0.53% (recent month), -12.72% (year-to-date), -28.10% (annualized)[43] - **Single-quarter EP**: 0.66% (recent week), 0.69% (recent month), 2.90% (year-to-date), 24.70% (annualized)[43] - **PB_ROE rank difference**: 0.61% (recent week), -0.26% (

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's product delivery capability continues to improve, with monthly car deliveries exceeding 30,000 units in July 2025, indicating strong production capacity [1][9] - The earnings forecast for the company has been adjusted, predicting earnings per share of 1.42, 1.99, and 2.53 yuan for 2025-2027, respectively, based on the progress of the automotive business and multi-category products [2][10] - The target price is set at 63.20 HKD, based on a 29x PE valuation for comparable companies in 2026 [2][10] Financial Information Summary - Revenue (in million yuan) is projected to grow from 270,970 in 2023 to 728,851 in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 23% [4] - Operating profit is expected to increase significantly from 20,009 million yuan in 2023 to 72,781 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of around 26% [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 17,475 million yuan in 2023 to 65,825 million yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of about 27% [4] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 21.7% in 2023 to 23.7% in 2027 [4] - The net profit margin is projected to increase from 6.4% in 2023 to 9.0% in 2027 [4] - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to rise from 10.6% in 2023 to 19.1% in 2027 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 8.33 CNY [5]. Core Views - The company's mid-term outlook is positive due to asset optimization leading to valuation recovery, despite slightly lower-than-expected interim performance [11]. - The company achieved a revenue of 116.8 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 16%, primarily due to a reduction in turnover scale and low-margin project contributions [11]. - The company remains the top seller in the industry, with a sales amount of 145.2 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, also down 16% year-on-year, but with an average price per square meter increasing by 12% to 20,300 CNY [11]. Financial Information Summary - Revenue (CNY million): - 2023A: 346,828 - 2024A: 311,666 - 2025E: 261,846 - 2026E: 234,674 - 2027E: 220,949 - Year-on-year growth (%): - 2023A: 23.4% - 2024A: -10.1% - 2025E: -16.0% - 2026E: -10.4% - 2027E: -5.8% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company (CNY million): - 2023A: 12,067 - 2024A: 5,001 - 2025E: 5,914 - 2026E: 5,942 - 2027E: 8,376 - Year-on-year growth (%): - 2023A: -34.1% - 2024A: -58.6% - 2025E: 18.3% - 2026E: 0.5% - 2027E: 41.0% [4]. - Earnings per share (CNY): - 2023A: 1.01 - 2024A: 0.42 - 2025E: 0.49 - 2026E: 0.50 - 2027E: 0.70 [4]. - Gross margin (%): - 2023A: 16.0% - 2024A: 13.9% - 2025E: 13.7% - 2026E: 15.4% - 2027E: 18.3% [4]. - Net margin (%): - 2023A: 3.5% - 2024A: 1.6% - 2025E: 2.3% - 2026E: 2.5% - 2027E: 3.8% [4]. - Price-to-earnings ratio: - 2023A: 8.0 - 2024A: 19.2 - 2025E: 16.3 - 2026E: 16.2 - 2027E: 11.5 [4].