业绩强劲增长，业务结构优化 ——云南白药 2024 年报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 考虑到公司提质增效的效果显著，我们下调销售费用率预期，预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 2.86、3.14、3.44 元（原预测值 2025-2026 年每股收益分别为 2.81/3.11 元），参考可比公司平均市盈率，我们给予公司 2025 年 22 倍 PE 估值， 对应目标价 62.92 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 药品销售不达预期、创新药研发不达预期等。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 39,111 | 40,033 | 42,417 | 44,281 | 46,777 | | 同比增长 (%) | 7.2% | 2.4% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 5.6% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 4,831 | 5,712 | 6,050 | 6,653 | 7,328 | | 同比增长 (%) | 43.3 ...

ADWM：基于门控机制的自适应动态因子 加权模型 ——因子选股系列之一一二 研究结论 自适应动态因子加权模型 金融工程 | 专题报告 为了克服市场状态市场风格发生突变时，短周期加权模型很有可能学习到错误的规律从 而造成巨大的回撤，我们设计了一套端到端因子生成和因子加权模型。该模型通过学习 市场上长期历史数据既捕捉 alpha 信息，又根据市场状态和个股属性信息学习 alpha 因子 的时变规律来对 alpha 因子进行加权，该模型框架由两部分组成： 各模型因子对比 根据输入的不同和加权方式的不同，我们提出了五个模型并进行对比，得到以下结论： 因子在各宽基指数上表现 风险提示 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 10 日 | 杨怡玲 | yangyiling@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523040002 | | 陶文启 | taowenqi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860524080003 | ABCM：基于神经网络的alpha因子和beta 因子协同挖掘模型：——因子选股系列之 一一〇 2024- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W with a target price of 178.12 HKD [5][12][15] Core Insights - The overall performance of Meituan in Q4 2024 exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 885 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 20% [9] - The core local business showed resilience, with revenue of 656 billion CNY in Q4 2024, up 19% year-on-year [9] - New business segments, particularly overseas expansion, are seeing positive developments, with new business revenue growing by 24% year-on-year [10] Summary by Sections Delivery Business - In Q4 2024, the delivery orders grew in the high single digits, with average order value (AOV) declining year-on-year but showing a reduced decline quarter-on-quarter [2] - The operational improvements and increased monetization rates helped offset the negative impact of AOV decline on revenue [2] - The macroeconomic environment continues to affect delivery order volumes and AOV, but there are structural opportunities for advertising revenue growth [2] Flash Purchase - Flash purchase orders are estimated to have increased by approximately 25% in Q4 2024, achieving profitability for the year [3] - The convenience of instant retail is stimulating consumer demand, particularly in lower-tier markets [3] - Revenue growth is expected to outpace order growth, contributing significantly to long-term profits [3] In-store and Travel Services - Orders in the in-store and travel segment are projected to grow over 65% year-on-year in 2024, with record highs in annual transaction users and active merchants [4] - The introduction of live streaming and promotional activities is enhancing merchant operations and marketing efficiency [4] - The organizational adjustments and the launch of the Meituan membership system are expected to improve customer acquisition and transaction frequency in this segment [4] Financial Projections - The report forecasts a revenue of 337.6 billion CNY for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 21.99% [12] - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected at 35.8 billion CNY, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 158.43% [12] - The estimated earnings per share for 2024 is 5.86 CNY, with a projected increase in subsequent years [12][14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 178.12 HKD [5][12]. Core Insights - The overall performance of Meituan in Q4 2024 exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 885 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 20% [9]. - The core local business showed resilience, with revenue of 656 billion CNY in Q4 2024, up 19% year-on-year [9]. - New business segments, particularly in overseas markets, are seeing positive developments with a revenue increase of 24% year-on-year [10]. Summary by Sections Delivery Business - In Q4 2024, the delivery orders grew in the high single digits, with an improvement in average order profit year-on-year. The average order value (AOV) decreased year-on-year but the decline was less severe compared to the previous quarter [2]. - The operational efficiency is expected to improve with the trial of social security plans for delivery riders starting in Q2 [2]. Flash Purchase - The flash purchase segment achieved profitability in 2024, with a 25% year-on-year increase in orders. The growth is driven by increased convenience in instant retail and expansion in lower-tier markets [3]. In-store and Travel - The in-store and travel segment saw over 65% year-on-year growth in order volume in 2024, with record highs in annual transaction users and active merchants [4]. - The revenue growth slightly outpaced the gross transaction value (GTV) growth, indicating effective marketing strategies [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 337.59 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 21.99%. The adjusted net profit is expected to reach 35.81 billion CNY, reflecting a significant recovery from previous losses [12][14]. - The company’s valuation is estimated at 10,882 billion HKD, with specific valuations for different segments: 3.5x PS for delivery, 13.2x PE for in-store and travel, and 0.6x P/GMV for new businesses [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [5] Core Views - Geely's March sales showed significant growth, with total sales reaching 232,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 53.9% and a month-on-month increase of 13.3%. The sales of new energy vehicles reached 119,700 units, up 167.2% year-on-year [7] - The report forecasts EPS for 2025-2027 to be 1.27, 1.50, and 1.84 RMB respectively, maintaining a target price of 20.55 HKD based on a PE ratio of 15 times [2] - The report highlights the launch of new models and the advancement in intelligent driving technology, which are expected to enhance sales performance [7] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from 179,204 million RMB in 2023 to 414,141 million RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.5% [4] - Operating profit is expected to increase from 3,806 million RMB in 2023 to 17,395 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 23.3% [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 5,308 million RMB in 2023 to 18,526 million RMB in 2027, with a notable increase of 213.3% in 2024 [4] Sales Performance - Geely's brand sales in March reached 191,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 62.0%, with the Galaxy series achieving a remarkable 290.3% growth [7] - The report indicates that Geely's sales growth is expected to outperform the industry average, which saw a 10% increase in March [7] Model Launches and Innovations - The report details the launch of several new models, including the Galaxy series and the Zeekr brand, which are expected to contribute significantly to sales in 2025 [7] - The introduction of the L3 level intelligent driving technology is highlighted as a strategic move to enhance Geely's competitive edge in the market [7]

力诺药包 301188.SZ 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 股价（2025年04月08日） 16.31 元 目标价格 18.60 元 52 周最高价/最低价 19.28/10.78 元 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） 23,245/23,245 A 股市值（百万元） 3,791 国家/地区 中国 行业 建材 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 09 日 买入 （维持） | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -10.33 | -2.68 | 7.09 | -2.3 | | 相对表现 | -4.24 | 4.76 | 10.74 | -5.53 | | 沪深 300 | -6.09 | -7.44 | -3.65 | 3.23 | 冯孟乾 fengmengqian@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523070003 股权激励指引方向，持续回购增强信心 ——力诺药包动态更新 核心观点 力诺药包动态跟踪 —— 股权激励指引方向，持续回购增强信心 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 调整公司 2024-2026 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [5] Core Views - Geely's March sales showed significant growth, with total sales reaching 232,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 53.9% and a month-on-month increase of 13.3%. The sales of new energy vehicles reached 119,700 units, up 167.2% year-on-year [7] - The company is expected to launch five new energy models in 2025, enhancing its product matrix across various segments [7] - The target price is set at 20.55 HKD, based on a 15x PE valuation for 2025 [2] Financial Forecasts - The forecasted EPS for 2025-2027 is 1.27, 1.50, and 1.84 CNY respectively, with a target price of 19.05 CNY [2] - Revenue is projected to grow from 179,204 million CNY in 2023 to 414,141 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.5% [4][8] - Operating profit is expected to increase from 3,806 million CNY in 2023 to 17,395 million CNY in 2027, with a significant growth rate of 100.8% in 2024 [4][8] Sales Performance - Geely's brand sales in March reached 191,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 62.0% [7] - The Galaxy series saw a remarkable sales increase of 290.3% year-on-year in March [7] - Lynk & Co's sales also grew by 28.6% year-on-year, with the Lynk 900 model set to launch soon [7] Market Position - Geely's market capitalization is approximately 140,685 million HKD, with a total share capital of 1,007,770,000 shares [5] - The company is positioned within the automotive and components industry in China [5]

力诺药包 301188.SZ 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 股价（2025年04月08日） 16.31 元 目标价格 18.60 元 52 周最高价/最低价 19.28/10.78 元 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） 23,245/23,245 A 股市值（百万元） 3,791 国家/地区 中国 行业 建材 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 09 日 买入 （维持） | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -10.33 | -2.68 | 7.09 | -2.3 | | 相对表现 | -4.24 | 4.76 | 10.74 | -5.53 | | 沪深 300 | -6.09 | -7.44 | -3.65 | 3.23 | 冯孟乾 fengmengqian@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523070003 股权激励指引方向，持续回购增强信心 ——力诺药包动态更新 核心观点 新点火产能效益不及预期，原材料成本上涨超预期，海外需求重新承压 公司主要财务信息 | | 2022A | 202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][3] Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a reported revenue of 1.283 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 8.74% year-on-year increase. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 6.57% to 189 million yuan due to increased expenses [11] - The company is advancing its BGM0504 project into Phase III clinical trials, with promising results in Phase II for both glycemic control and weight loss [11] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 1.283 billion yuan in 2024 to 1.960 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.7%, 23.2%, 12.2%, and 10.6% respectively [9] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 57.5% in 2024 to 59.8% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 0.61, 0.71, and 0.81 yuan respectively, reflecting an upward revision from previous estimates [3][9] Segment Performance Summary - The raw material drug segment achieved revenue of 988 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.57%, driven by strong demand for antifungal and immunosuppressive products [11] - The formulation segment reported revenue of 161 million yuan, up 16.77% year-on-year, primarily due to increased sales of specific products [11] Valuation Summary - Based on comparable companies, a target price of 37.21 yuan is set for 2025, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 61 times [3][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][3] Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a reported revenue of 1.283 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 8.74% year-on-year increase. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 6.57% to 189 million yuan due to increased expenses [11] - The company is advancing its BGM0504 project into Phase III clinical trials, with promising results in Phase II for both glycemic control and weight loss [11] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 1.283 billion yuan in 2024 to 1.960 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.7%, 23.2%, 12.2%, and 10.6% respectively [9] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 57.5% in 2024 to 59.8% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is 0.61 yuan, 0.71 yuan, and 0.81 yuan respectively, up from the previous estimate of 0.58 yuan for 2025 [3][9] Market Comparison - The target price for the company is set at 37.21 yuan based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 61 times for 2025, which is derived from comparable companies [3][12] - The company's current stock price is 36.05 yuan, with a 52-week high of 43.67 yuan and a low of 22.82 yuan [5]