Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook on the gaming industry, indicating a recovery trend supported by a strong product pipeline and favorable policies [1]. Core Insights - The gaming market has shown signs of recovery in August and September, with year-on-year revenue growth of 15.1% and 14.9% respectively, following a period of negative growth from April to July [1]. - Mobile gaming has been a significant driver of this recovery, with a positive growth rate of 10.5% in September [1]. - The report highlights the importance of heavy content consumption, light demand, and overseas market opportunities, particularly in console games, mini-program games, and game exports [1]. Summary by Sections A-shares - Companies like Kying and 37 Interactive have a robust product schedule for 2025, with Kying planning to launch titles such as "Rainbow Orange" and "Tomb Raider: Journey" [1]. - 37 Interactive has over 20 self-developed or agency products, including "Tales of the Dragon" [1]. - Gigabit and Perfect World are also expected to turn trends around with their upcoming titles [1]. Hong Kong Stocks - Tencent and NetEase lead in product reserves, focusing on self-owned IP branding and collaborations with globally recognized IP games [1]. - Heartbeat and Bilibili are actively exploring new game opportunities, with Heartbeat achieving notable success in its recent titles [1]. - Kingsoft is venturing into the mech battle PC game sector with its project "Limitless Machine" [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for the gaming industry due to several factors: 1) Positive policy environment and high industry regulation [1]. 2) Enhanced player appreciation and diversified platforms for product launches [1]. 3) A rich product pipeline for most gaming companies, expected to support performance in 2025 [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for 康方生物 (9926) [4][3] Core Insights - The clinical data for 卡度尼利 in first-line cervical cancer is impressive, with significant benefits observed across the entire population. The company has completed a new round of stock placement to accelerate global development of new drugs [3][4] - The revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised upwards to 29.40 billion, 47.76 billion, and 67.55 billion RMB respectively, compared to the previous estimates of 29.24 billion, 47.69 billion, and 65.95 billion RMB [4] - The ODAC meeting has further refined the first-line gastric cancer population, enhancing 卡度尼利's competitive advantage [4] Summary by Sections Clinical Data - The results from the Phase III clinical study for 卡度尼利 combined with platinum-based chemotherapy ± bevacizumab for first-line treatment of persistent, recurrent, or metastatic cervical cancer showed a progression-free survival (PFS) of 12.7 months versus 8.1 months for the control group (HR=0.62) and overall survival (OS) results of NR versus 22.8 months (HR=0.64) [4][8] - In the gastric cancer setting, 卡度尼利 demonstrated significant overall survival benefits, particularly in patients with low PD-L1 expression [4][9] Financial Overview - The company successfully raised approximately 19.42 billion HKD through a new stock placement, with over 8.2 billion HKD expected to be allocated for accelerating clinical development of core products globally [4][5] - The current market capitalization of 康方生物 is approximately 58.835 billion HKD, with a share price range over the past year between 31.80 and 74.40 HKD [5][4] Competitive Landscape - The FDA's recent ODAC meeting supported the segmentation of PD-1 drug applications based on PD-L1 expression levels, which positions 卡度尼利 favorably against existing treatments for gastric cancer [4][9] - The report highlights that 卡度尼利's treatment regimen offers significant survival benefits compared to PD-1 monoclonal antibodies, particularly in populations with low PD-L1 expression [4][8]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious increase in investment rating for the IPO market, with expectations of relatively low returns for new stock offerings in 2024 [17]. Core Insights - As of September 30, 2024, a total of 69 IPOs were issued in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets, raising a total of 47.868 billion yuan, which shows a year-on-year decline. However, there was a slight recovery in the issuance pace in Q3, with 25 IPOs launched, an increase of 11 from Q2 [2][3]. - The average first-day return for newly listed stocks in 2024 reached 135.59%, with no stocks experiencing a decline on their debut. The average first-day returns for main board, ChiNext, and STAR Market stocks in Q3 were 92.65%, 199.63%, and 77.61%, respectively [3]. - The estimated additional returns for A/B class accounts in the first three quarters of 2024 were 3.6017 million yuan and 2.8711 million yuan, respectively, corresponding to additional return rates of 0.71% and 0.57% for a 500 million yuan account [3][5]. - For the entire year of 2024, it is predicted that the IPO market will maintain a relatively low issuance pace, with an estimated total of 70 to 100 IPOs and a fundraising scale of around 60 billion yuan. The expected first-day average returns for the STAR Market, ChiNext, and main board are projected to be 100%, 150%, and 100%, respectively [3][5]. Summary by Sections IPO Market Overview - The IPO market showed a total of 69 new listings with a fundraising amount of 47.868 billion yuan as of September 30, 2024, reflecting a decline of over 70% in the number of IPOs and over 80% in fundraising compared to the previous year [2][3]. Performance of Newly Listed Stocks - Newly listed stocks maintained a high average first-day return of 135.59% in 2024, with Q3 showing strong performance across different boards, indicating a favorable market environment for new listings despite the low issuance pace [3]. Expected Returns for Investors - The report forecasts that A class accounts with a scale of 500 million yuan will achieve an additional return rate of approximately 1.18% for the year, while B class accounts with a scale of 200 million yuan are expected to achieve a return rate of about 1.44% [5][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5] - The target price is set at 189.13 CNY, unchanged from the previous forecast [5] Core Insights - The company's Q3 2024 performance is strong, driven by new product cycles in both two-wheeled and four-wheeled segments, with sales growth supported by both domestic and export markets [3][10] - Revenue for the first nine months of 2024 reached 11.45 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 21.98%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.081 billion CNY, up 34.87% [10] - The company reported a Q3 2024 revenue of 3.92 billion CNY, reflecting a 36.11% year-on-year increase, although it decreased by 12.23% quarter-on-quarter [10] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 gross margin was 31.57%, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 0.75 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [10] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 9.74%, an increase of 0.64 percentage points year-on-year [10] - The company’s operating expenses have improved, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios at 8.53%, 3.27%, and 6.95% respectively, showing year-on-year reductions [10] Product and Market Dynamics - The company continues to enhance its product structure, with the 450 series products performing exceptionally well and new platforms set to launch in 2024-2025 [10] - The four-wheeled market is stabilizing, and the company is benefiting from an upgraded product structure, which lays a solid foundation for revenue and performance [10] - The company is expanding its product range in the new energy sector and strengthening its channel development, gradually entering a harvest period [10] Financial Forecast - The company’s EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 are 9.03 CNY, 11.19 CNY, and 13.67 CNY respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 21 times for 2024 [10][11] - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 14.67 billion CNY, 17.60 billion CNY, and 20.77 billion CNY, reflecting growth rates of 21.1%, 20.0%, and 18.0% respectively [11]

Investment Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry and pharmaceutical services industry as "Buy" [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that with comprehensive support, favorable policies for innovative drugs are expected to continue. The overall rules for medical insurance negotiations will remain stable, allowing innovative drugs to receive payment preferences, benefiting several key products. The report is optimistic about leading innovative pharmaceutical companies [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Comprehensive Support for Innovative Drugs - The State Council approved the "Implementation Plan for Comprehensive Support for Innovative Drug Development" in July 2024, enhancing policy guarantees across pricing management, medical insurance payments, commercial insurance, drug supply, and financing [3][7]. - Local governments are expected to introduce or deepen supportive policies, significantly aiding the high-quality development of innovative drugs [7][8]. 2. Medical Insurance Negotiation Outlook 2.1. Stable Negotiation Rules - The negotiation rules for medical insurance are stabilizing, with an increasing success rate for negotiations from 59% in 2019 to 85% in 2023. Innovative drugs have received notable policy preferences during negotiations [10][9]. - In 2023, 70% of the 100 renewal drugs were renewed at original prices, with an average price reduction of only 6.7% for those that required price cuts [10][9]. 2.2. Emergence of Key Products - The report notes the stable overall landscape of PD-1/PD-L1 monoclonal antibodies, with continuous expansion of indications. Several new products have passed formal reviews, including dual antibodies and ADCs [23][26][31]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product differentiation and recommends focusing on leading companies with significant advantages in innovative drugs [3][23]. 2.3. Companies Likely to Benefit from Medical Insurance Expansion - The report identifies several companies expected to benefit from the expansion of medical insurance coverage, including BeiGene, Innovent Biologics, and others [3][23][26]. 3. Individual Stock Profit Forecasts and Valuations - The report provides detailed forecasts and valuations for individual stocks within the pharmaceutical sector, highlighting the potential for growth driven by favorable policies and market dynamics [3][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3][2]. Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in Q3, with continuous improvement in profitability and effective customer optimization [2]. - The earnings forecast for 2024-2026 has been raised, with expected EPS of 1.34, 1.73, and 2.14 yuan, reflecting increases of 10%, 8%, and 7% respectively [9]. - The target price has been adjusted to 28.46 yuan, up from the previous forecast of 23.79 yuan [3]. Financial Performance Summary - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 175 million to 193 million yuan in Q3, representing a year-on-year growth of 40% to 55% [9]. - Q3 net profit is projected to be between 78 million to 96 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 32% to 64% [9]. - The revenue growth rate for Q3 is estimated to be around 50% to 60%, with a net profit margin of approximately 15% to 16%, an increase of 2% to 3% from Q2 [9]. Market and Order Growth - The growth in Q3 performance and orders is attributed to the upcoming traditional large procurement season in developed countries, as well as the recovery of the U.S. real estate market boosting demand for cleaning equipment and pneumatic tools [9]. - The company plans to accelerate expansion beyond the U.S. market, particularly in Europe, which presents significant growth opportunities [9]. - New product categories, such as garden tools and care robots, are expected to contribute to future growth alongside the existing focus on air compressors and wet-dry vacuums [9].

[table_Authors] 刘越男(分析师) 陈笑(分析师) 021-38677706 021-38677906 [Table_subIndustry] 细分行业评级 liuyuenan@gtjas.com chenxiao015813@gtjas.com 批发零售业 增持 贸易 增持 登记编号 S0880516030003 S0880518020002 证 券 研 究 报 告 9 月出口回落，期待欧美消费旺季到来 [Table_Industry] 批零贸易业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 ——零售出海观察系列第 43 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.10.17 本报告导读： 9 月出口增速有所回落；期待 11-12 月欧美感恩/圣诞+黑五网一旺季到来，叠加海运 价格调整、部分公司上年基数效应，Q4 出海板块或有较好表现。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 9 月出口增速回落。1)海关总署披露 9 月外贸数据，按美元计，1 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the home appliance industry as "Overweight" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the sales volume of televisions in the domestic market has improved marginally due to the "old-for-new" policy, benefiting leading brands significantly [3][9] - Panel prices remain stable, alleviating cost pressures for color TVs, and the ODM landscape shows a trend where stronger players continue to dominate [3][18] - The report recommends specific stocks, including Hisense Visual (11.4x PE), XGIMI Technology (22.2x PE), and TCL Electronics (8.6x PE) [3][29] Summary by Sections Retail Side - In September, the "old-for-new" policy led to a marginal improvement in domestic sales, with online sales of color TVs reaching 1.18 million units, up 19.41% year-on-year, and sales revenue of 3.986 billion yuan, up 38.29% [3][9] - Offline sales also saw growth, with 304,500 units sold, a 6.94% increase, and revenue of 2.341 billion yuan, up 40.16% [3][9] Brand Side - Leading brands like TCL and Hisense benefited significantly from the "old-for-new" policy, with TCL's offline sales revenue reaching 490 million yuan in September, up 84% year-on-year, and Hisense's offline sales revenue at 770 million yuan, up 43% [16][3] ODM Landscape - The ODM landscape is characterized by a divide where stronger players continue to thrive. MOKA led with approximately 1.5 million units shipped in August, while AMTC and KTC followed with significant year-on-year growth [18][3] Profitability - Panel prices remained stable in early October, with average prices for various sizes holding steady. The average prices for 65'', 55'', 43'', and 32'' panels were $171, $124, $63, and $34 respectively [21][25] New Products - Hisense launched a new laser TV model, the Star S1 MAX, featuring advanced audio and visual technology, including a 110% DCI-P3 color gamut and AI applications [29][3] Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the positive impact of the "old-for-new" policy on sales and recommends stocks such as Hisense Visual, XGIMI Technology, and TCL Electronics based on their market positions and PE ratios [3][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company shows robust fundamentals and improved liquidity following a major shareholder's reduction in holdings, which is expected to enhance trading liquidity and attract long-term investors [4][3]. - The company has consistently achieved positive same-store sales growth for 29 consecutive quarters since the current management team took over in Q3 2017 [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 42.35 billion, 53.65 billion, and 67.83 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth of 39%, 27%, and 26% respectively [4]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.10 billion, 1.56 billion, and 2.59 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 1156%, 42%, and 66% respectively [4]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios corresponding to the adjusted net profits are projected to be 75x, 53x, and 32x for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4]. Operational Highlights - As of Q3 2024, the company operates 978 stores, with a net increase of 146 stores in H1 2024 and 64 stores in Q3 2024, achieving its annual opening target [4]. - The company plans to open approximately 300 to 350 new stores in 2025 and 2026 [4].

Investment Rating - The report rates the construction industry as "Overweight" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the optimization of real estate policies is helping the industry to stabilize, recommending leading companies in the construction chain such as China State Construction [2][4] - The real estate market is beginning to bottom out, supported by policies such as the monetization of 1 million old housing renovations and increased credit for "white list" projects [5][11] - The report emphasizes the expected improvement in cash flow and asset quality for construction companies due to favorable fiscal policies [11][12] Summary by Relevant Sections Recent Key Reports - The report discusses the acceleration of construction investment in Sichuan, recommending central enterprises like China State Construction and China Railway [8][9] - It notes that Sichuan plans to invest approximately 2.15 trillion yuan in major projects over the next 2-3 years, with a significant portion allocated to infrastructure [9] Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends China State Construction, which has announced plans to increase its shareholding by 600-1,200 million yuan within 12 months [5][8] - Other recommended companies include China Railway, China Communications Construction, and China Railway Construction, all of which have shown positive order growth [5][8][11] - The report also highlights the performance metrics of these companies, such as China State Construction's new orders of 3.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5% [5][11] Profit Forecasts - The report maintains a profit forecast for China State Construction with expected EPS of 1.40, 1.47, and 1.54 yuan for 2024-2026, reflecting growth rates of 7%, 5%, and 5% respectively [25][27] - It also notes the expected dividend yield of 5.2% for China State Construction, with a price-to-book ratio of 0.5 [25][27]