Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the home appliance industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The third quarter of 2024 has shown that the white goods sector leads in performance, with overall revenue and profit growth in the home appliance sector at +1.5% and +0.7% year-on-year, respectively [3][6]. - The "old-for-new" policy, supported by national subsidies, has positively impacted the sales growth across all home appliance categories, both online and offline [3][18]. - The report anticipates a turning point in Q4, driven by the "old-for-new" policy and the upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival, which is expected to stimulate sales significantly [3][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance of the Home Appliance Sector - The home appliance sector's revenue and profit growth has been declining for three consecutive quarters, with Q3 showing a decrease of 3.8 percentage points in revenue growth compared to Q2 [3][6]. - White goods have shown a revenue increase of +0.9% and a profit increase of +9.8% in Q3 2024, indicating a robust performance compared to other segments [3][6]. 2. Sales Growth and Market Dynamics - The online sales growth for selected categories such as dryers, robotic vacuums, and floor washers has significantly improved, with year-on-year growth rates increasing by 29 percentage points, 16.9%, and 4.7%, respectively [3][18]. - The report highlights that the competitive landscape is crucial for profit enhancement, with white goods maintaining a favorable competitive position [3][6]. 3. Raw Material Prices and Shipping Costs - Prices for copper, aluminum, and plastics have increased year-on-year, while steel and crude oil prices have seen a decline [20][21]. - The shipping price index for Chinese exports has shown a cumulative increase of 46% year-on-year, with a quarterly decline of 36% [21]. 4. Real Estate Market Trends - There is a marginal recovery in real estate sales data, with significant increases in second-hand home transactions in cities like Beijing and Shenzhen [3][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the home appliance sector, indicating a positive outlook for the upcoming quarter [2][4]. Core Insights - The Q3 performance of the home appliance sector was generally flat, with most categories experiencing revenue declines or profit growth without revenue growth. However, the white goods segment showed stable operations, and the sector is expected to see a turning point in Q4 due to the effects of the "trade-in" policy and the upcoming Double Eleven sales event [4][9]. - The overall revenue and profit growth for the home appliance sector in Q3 2024 was +1.5% and +0.7% year-on-year, respectively, which represents a decline from Q2 by 3.8 percentage points and 8.3 percentage points [9][10]. - The white goods segment demonstrated resilience with revenue and profit growth rates of 0.9% and 9.8%, respectively, despite a weak domestic demand environment in July and August [8][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Overview - The home appliance sector's Q3 performance was characterized by flat growth, with revenue and profit growth slowing down compared to previous quarters. The white goods segment was the main contributor to the overall performance, achieving revenue and profit growth of 0.9% and 9.8% respectively [9][10]. - The black goods segment faced challenges, with revenue growth of +10.0% but a profit decline of -24.9%, primarily due to rising panel prices [8][9]. 2. Company Analysis - Among the 32 companies covered, only a few exceeded revenue and profit expectations in Q3. Notably, white goods companies generally met expectations, while traditional kitchen appliance leaders performed steadily. However, integrated stove performance significantly lagged behind expectations [17][18]. 3. Cash Flow - The overall cash flow for the home appliance sector improved in Q3, driven mainly by the white goods segment. The net operating cash flow for the sector reached 57 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.5% [21][22]. 4. Institutional Holdings - Fund holdings in the home appliance sector reached a historical high, with the proportion of holdings increasing to the highest level in nearly two years. This indicates a growing confidence among institutional investors in the sector's potential [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Amazon (AMZN O) [1] Core Views - Amazon s 24Q3 revenue slightly exceeded expectations while profits significantly surpassed expectations [2] - AWS business showed stable growth with a flat quarter over quarter growth rate [2] - Continued capital expenditure in the AI sector is noted [2] Financial Performance - FY24Q3 total revenue reached $1589 billion a 11% YoY increase slightly above the consensus estimate of $1573 billion [3] - Operating profit was $174 billion a 56% YoY increase significantly higher than the consensus estimate of $147 billion [3] - Net profit stood at $153 billion a 55% YoY increase [3] - International and North America retail business operating margins improved to 59% and 36% respectively due to enhanced transportation and fulfillment efficiency [3] - AWS operating margin increased by 2 percentage points due to extended server depreciation periods starting from 2024 [3] AWS Performance - AWS Q3 revenue was $275 billion a 191% YoY increase with a slight quarter over quarter growth of 04% [3] - Annualized AWS revenue reached $1100 billion with AI demand exceeding supply capacity and annualized revenue in the billions growing over 100% YoY [3] - Amazon s self developed chip Trainium 2 is set for large scale deployment in a few weeks [3] Retail Performance - Retail sector revenue grew by 95% slightly above market expectations by 12 percentage points [3] - North America and international retail revenues were $955 billion and $359 billion respectively with YoY growth rates of 9% and 12% [3] - Consumer preference shifted towards lower average selling price (ASP) products with strong demand for daily necessities [3] - International business growth was partly driven by favorable currency exchange rates [3] - 3P merchant services and advertising revenue growth slowed while self operated retail accelerated [3] - 3P merchant order share dropped by 1 percentage point to 60% [3] Capital Expenditure - 2024 Capex guidance is $750 billion with plans to increase Capex in 2025 primarily to support AWS especially AI service demand [3] Financial Projections - Adjusted 2024E 2026E revenue forecasts are $6393 billion $7097 billion and $7955 billion respectively with YoY growth rates of 11% 11% and 12% [3] - Adjusted GAAP net profit forecasts for 2024E 2026E are $557 billion $699 billion and $830 billion respectively with YoY growth rates of 83% 25% and 19% [3] - Target price is raised to $2262 USD [3] Market Data - Current stock price is $19793 [4] - 52 week stock price range is $13745 $20120 [4] - Current market capitalization is $2080442 million [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised to 19.20 CNY, reflecting an 11% increase from the previous target of 17.27 CNY [4][6]. Core Insights - The company's performance met expectations, with a focus on channel expansion and the progress of its restaurant business. The sales figures for mooncake business were in line with expectations, and overall sales remained flat year-on-year [3][4]. - The report highlights a downward adjustment in EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 due to weak overall demand in the restaurant industry, with projected EPS of 0.90 CNY (-13%), 1.01 CNY (-11%), and 1.11 CNY (-9%) respectively [4]. - The company achieved a revenue of 4.1 billion CNY in 2024 Q1-3, a 6% increase year-on-year, while gross profit decreased by 4% to 1.36 billion CNY [4][5]. Financial Summary - For 2024 Q3, the company reported a revenue of 2.19 billion CNY, a 2.3% increase year-on-year, with mooncake, frozen food, and restaurant revenues at 1.41 billion CNY, 230 million CNY, and 370 million CNY respectively [4]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 39.49%, down 2.84 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit of 390 million CNY, a decrease of 5.3% [4][5]. - The financial outlook includes projected revenues of 5.24 billion CNY for 2024, 5.96 billion CNY for 2025, and 6.70 billion CNY for 2026, with corresponding net profits of 511 million CNY, 575 million CNY, and 633 million CNY [5][12].

股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.03 ——2024Q3 业绩点评 收入短期承压，期待国补拉动下的改善 格力电器(000651) 家用电器业[Table_Industry] /可选消费品 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|--------------------|-------|---------------------------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 蔡雯娟 ( 分析师 ) | 樊夏俐 ( 分析师 ) | | 李汉颖 ( 研究助理 | ) | | | | 021-38031654 | 021-38676666 | | 010-83939833 | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating and raises the target price to 36.90 CNY from the previous 33.04 CNY [4][12]. Core Insights - The company continues to enhance its gross margin in Q3 2024, with a competitive landscape solidifying, supported by product structure optimization and cost reduction efforts, which opens up profit growth potential. Rapid growth is observed in the new energy and consumer gear segments, alongside accelerated overseas expansion [3][4]. Financial Summary - For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 6.74 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 740 million CNY, up 25.2% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 710 million CNY, reflecting a 29.2% increase [4][5]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.42 billion CNY, a 10.7% year-on-year increase and a 7.7% quarter-on-quarter increase. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 270 million CNY, marking a 20.0% year-on-year increase and a 5.3% quarter-on-quarter increase [4][5]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 23.96%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year and 1.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The net profit margin was 11.4%, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [4][5]. Business Development - The company is enhancing its overseas market presence and diversifying its business. It is expanding its product line through Ring Drive Technology, covering various intelligent actuators and establishing a production base in Hungary to strengthen its foothold in the European market [4][12]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the precision gear sector, with strong pricing power and improving profitability. The upcoming harvest period for its investments in robotics, consumer gears, and overseas markets is anticipated to drive rapid revenue growth [4][12].

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Overweight" [5] Core Viewpoints - The positioning of Huawei in the humanoid robot industry is expected to resemble that of Nvidia, focusing on selling tools and building an ecosystem [3] - The entry of Sairis into the humanoid robot sector is seen as a win-win situation for multiple parties involved [3] - The humanoid robot industry is still in its early stages, with the key challenge being the successful commercialization of humanoid robot products [3] - The report highlights the importance of Huawei's Ascend chips and ecosystem development as critical tasks moving forward [6] Summary by Sections - **Industry Overview**: The report discusses the recent recruitment by Sairis for robot-related positions and the upcoming "2024 Sairis Innovation Technology Exhibition" and "2024 Sairis Humanoid Robot Technical Forum" [6] - **Market Dynamics**: The report notes that the market is actively discussing the involvement of Huawei and Sairis in the humanoid robot sector, which is expected to boost chip sales and ecosystem establishment [6] - **Investment Opportunities**: The report emphasizes the potential investment opportunities within the humanoid robot supply chain, particularly in components such as dexterous hands, screws, reducers, and sensors [6] - **Recommended Stocks**: The report recommends stocks such as Shuanghuan Transmission and Hengli Hydraulic, while also identifying beneficiaries like Zhaowei Electromechanical and Mingzhi Electric [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation and oil transportation sectors, and also for container shipping companies [1][2]. Core Insights - The aviation sector shows strong performance with major airlines exceeding expectations in Q3, driven by improved business demand and revenue strategies. It is recommended to position for the off-season [2][3]. - In the oil transportation sector, there are expectations that OPEC+ may delay production increases, suggesting a cautious approach to peak season strategies [2][3]. - Container shipping volumes remain stable, with companies actively supporting pricing to aid long-term contract negotiations [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Aviation - Major airlines reported a 17% year-on-year decline in profits, yet exceeded Q3 2019 levels. Fleet turnover and passenger load factors improved, partially offsetting ticket price declines. The report anticipates a recovery in passenger load factors by 2024, with profitability expected to rise as supply and demand stabilize. Recommendations include maintaining "Overweight" ratings for China National Aviation, Spring Airlines, and China Southern Airlines [3][4]. Oil Transportation - Recent data indicates a decline in domestic refinery operating rates, with the Middle East to China VLCC TCE dropping to approximately $30,000 per day. The report suggests a cautious approach to peak season expectations, with a focus on the potential for OPEC+ to delay production increases. Companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy are highlighted for their performance exceeding market expectations [3][4]. Container Shipping - Container shipping companies are actively supporting pricing, with recent increases in freight rates for European and American routes. The report notes that the idle rate for large vessels has increased by 0.5% over the past month, and companies are expected to continue price increases through the end of the year, depending on supply and demand dynamics [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Microsoft (MSFT.O) [1][3]. Core Insights - Microsoft's FY25 Q1 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue growth stabilizing and capital expenditures continuing to expand, particularly in AI computing capacity [1][3]. - The company reported Q1 revenue of $65.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16%, and a GAAP net profit of $24.7 billion, up 11% year-on-year [3][15]. - Adjustments to revenue forecasts for FY2025E-FY2027E were made, with projected revenues of $278.7 billion, $315.6 billion, and $355.8 billion respectively [3][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Overview - Revenue and profit slightly exceeded expectations, with capital expenditures on the rise [11][15]. - Q1 capital expenditures reached $20 billion, a 78.6% increase year-on-year, with half allocated to computing infrastructure [3][11]. 2. Revenue by Segment - Revenue from Productivity and Business Processes grew by 12% year-on-year, while Intelligent Cloud revenue increased by 20% [12][13]. - Azure and other cloud services saw a 33% year-on-year growth, driven by AI services contributing 12 percentage points to Azure's growth [3][12]. 3. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report projects adjusted GAAP net profits of $103.4 billion, $113.5 billion, and $125.4 billion for FY2025E-FY2027E [3][15]. - A target price of $484 is set based on a FY2025 Forward PE of 35 times [3][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 9.50 yuan, up from a previous forecast of 7.72 yuan [1][12]. Core Views - The report anticipates that national subsidy policies will drive a continuous recovery in revenue, alongside improvements in operational efficiency due to cost reduction and efficiency enhancement measures [2]. - The company is in a store expansion phase, leading to significant initial investments, while facing intense industry competition [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 506 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.19%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 39 million yuan, down 25.74% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue was 184 million yuan, up 22% year-on-year, while net profit was 7 million yuan, down 52.7% year-on-year [15]. Domestic and Overseas Revenue Growth - In Q3 2024, the company's domestic brand business in China grew by 19% year-on-year, while overseas business surged by 172%. The OEM/ODM business remained stable with an 8% year-on-year increase. Increased investment in brand development significantly boosted domestic sales [16]. Margin and Expense Analysis - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 47.36%, a decrease of 1.84 percentage points year-on-year, with a net margin of 7.68%, down 3.41 percentage points year-on-year. In Q3 2024, the gross margin was 44.56%, down 1.25 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 3.78%, down 5.98 percentage points year-on-year. The increase in expense ratios was noted, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios for Q3 2024 being 29.23%, 7.49%, 5.42%, and 1.38%, respectively [17]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - As of Q3 2024, the company had cash and cash equivalents plus trading financial assets totaling 452 million yuan, down 203 million yuan year-on-year. Inventory stood at 115 million yuan, up 7 million yuan year-on-year, and accounts receivable totaled 49 million yuan, up 8 million yuan year-on-year. The turnover days for inventory, accounts receivable, and accounts payable were 112, 19, and 37 days, respectively, showing improvements [18].