股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——交通银行 2024 年三季报点评 [table_Authors] 刘源(分析师) 021-38677818 liuyuan023804@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880521060001 本报告导读： 交通银行 24Q3 营收及净利润增速小幅超出预期，息差管控颇有成效，资产质量稳 中向好。上调目标价至 8.4 元，维持增持评级。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 投资建议：2024 年以来交通银行强调高质量发展，重"量"更重"质"。 相较规模扩张更关注息差平稳，同时资产质量在经历了三年"资产 质量攻坚战"、"资产质量巩固年"后进入"贷投后管理年"，核心指 标持续向好。根据三季报表现及降息后未来存贷款重定价情况，调 整公司 2024-2026 年净利润增速预测为 0.4%、0.5%、2.2%，对应 BVPS 为 12.97(-0.11)、13.93(+0.03)、14.74(-0.03)元/股。考虑到一揽 子稳经济政策密集出台，利好银行风险缓释和信贷需求恢复，推动 板块估值回升，上调目标价至 8.4 元，对应 2024 年 0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - The IVD production line is experiencing steady growth, with rapid expansion in international markets. Clinical medical and dermatology aesthetics businesses are under short-term pressure but are expected to gradually recover [2]. - The target price has been raised to 21.85 CNY, reflecting an increase from the previous forecast of 19.20 CNY [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 857 million CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.89%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 257 million CNY, up 25.62%, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 243 million CNY, up 29.11% [8]. - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 was 69.89%, an increase of 3.48 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 29.89%, up 4.65 percentage points [8]. Business Segment Analysis - The IVD business generated revenue of 678 million CNY, a growth of 19%, with domestic revenue at 442 million CNY (up 15%) and international revenue at 237 million CNY (up 26%) [8]. - The clinical medical and dermatology aesthetics segments are currently facing challenges due to a high base in 2023 and a slowdown in hospital bidding processes. However, there is potential for recovery as the industry bidding resumes [8]. Financial Forecasts - The report has adjusted the EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 0.95 CNY, 1.14 CNY, and 1.37 CNY respectively, down from previous estimates of 0.96 CNY, 1.20 CNY, and 1.51 CNY [8]. - The company is expected to maintain a net profit growth rate of approximately 20% in the coming years, with projected net profits of 405 million CNY in 2024, 487 million CNY in 2025, and 586 million CNY in 2026 [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance was impacted by the centralized procurement of Rabeprazole, but there was a slight improvement in performance due to strong results from other products. The gross margin was affected by multiple factors, while the sales expense ratio continued to optimize, keeping the net profit margin stable [1][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 5.805 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.19% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.903 billion yuan, down 2.13% year-on-year. Q3 revenue was 1.771 billion yuan, down 7.18% year-on-year but up 8.51% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit for Q3 was 565 million yuan, up 6.58% year-on-year and 14.50% quarter-on-quarter [9][10]. Cost Management - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 78.53%, down 3.3 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 31.97%, up 0.26 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the continuous optimization of the sales expense ratio, which was 32.77%, down 4.84 percentage points year-on-year [9][10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to face continued pressure in Q4 2024 due to the impact of centralized procurement and high base effects from core products. However, it is anticipated that the company will gradually recover and achieve stable growth in 2025. The self-research and business development (BD) projects are progressing steadily and are expected to contribute to future performance growth [9][10]. Valuation - The target price is maintained at 39.39 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 12 times for 2025. The EPS forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been adjusted to 2.92, 3.30, and 3.69 yuan, respectively [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [6][12]. Core Views - The company's Q3 net profit shows improvement, indicating operational resilience, and the development of smart glasses is a growing trend, with the company actively advancing its layout to benefit first [2]. - Revenue for the first three quarters reached 915 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.09%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 83 million yuan, down 14.5% [2]. - The forecast for EPS has been adjusted downwards for 2024-2026 to 0.78, 0.91, and 1.05 yuan respectively, with growth rates of 6%, 17%, and 15% [2]. - The target price is set at 31.64 yuan, based on comparable company valuations [2][12]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 962 million yuan in 2022 to 1,528 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of approximately 11% [1]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 76 million yuan in 2022 to 183 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a significant recovery after a decline in 2023 [1]. - The company's net profit margin is projected to improve from 7.7% in 2022 to 12.1% in 2026 [1]. - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is expected to decrease from 63.50 in 2022 to 26.36 in 2026, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [1]. Industry Insights - The smart glasses market is becoming increasingly competitive, with major players like Meta and Apple making significant advancements [2]. - The company is positioned to leverage its first-mover advantage in the smart glasses sector, having established partnerships with various brands and set up dedicated smart glasses counters in 100 offline stores [2]. - The report highlights the potential for smart glasses to replicate the growth trajectory of TWS earbuds as technology advances and production costs decrease [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chengdu Bank with a target price of 18.65 CNY, reflecting a valuation of 0.95 times for 2024 [2][5]. Core Views - Chengdu Bank's revenue and net profit growth rates for Q3 2024 met expectations, with a year-to-date revenue increase of 3.2% and net profit growth of 10.8%. The bank's asset quality is improving steadily, and the net interest margin showed resilience, slightly exceeding expectations [2][3]. - The bank is strategically positioned in a key area of national development, with strong credit demand and leading growth rates compared to peers. It is focusing on enhancing its traditional strengths in government finance while actively developing retail loans and wealth management [3][5]. - The report adjusts the net profit growth forecasts for 2024-2026 to 10.6%, 7.8%, and 8.8%, respectively, with corresponding book value per share (BVPS) estimates of 19.55, 22.13, and 24.95 CNY [3][4]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the projected revenue is 22,457 million CNY, reflecting a growth of 3.5% from 2023. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 12,905 million CNY, a growth of 10.6% [4]. - The bank's net interest income is projected to grow at a rate of 2.5% in 2024, while non-interest income is expected to increase by 11.8% [4][10]. - As of Q3 2024, the bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remains low at 0.66%, with a coverage ratio of 497.4%, indicating strong asset quality [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Views - The company shows improved profitability, with a revenue of 1.088 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.97%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 284 million yuan, up 22.04% year-on-year. However, Q3 revenue saw a decline of 3.30% year-on-year, and net profit dropped by 30.33% due to high base effects from the previous year and financial costs [3][4]. - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 58.22%, an increase of 2.58 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 gross margin at 60.68%, reflecting continuous improvement driven by high-margin product sales [3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its specialty raw materials and formulation business, with significant progress in its peptide and oligonucleotide platform capabilities. The company is also expanding its international marketing system [3][4]. Financial Summary - For 2024E, the company forecasts revenue of 1.566 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 24.1%. The net profit is projected to be 393 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 35.9% [8][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.97 yuan, 1.25 yuan, and 1.56 yuan, respectively [3][9]. - The target price is set at 29.10 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 23 times for 2025 [3][4]. Market Data - The current stock price is 21.86 yuan, with a market capitalization of 8.879 billion yuan. The stock has traded within a range of 18.40 to 26.77 yuan over the past 52 weeks [5][6]. - The company has a net asset value per share of 5.58 yuan, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 3.9 at the current price [6].

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of 119.37 RMB [2][3][4] Core Views - The company's aortic business is under pressure due to price adjustments, but its medium-to-long-term competitiveness remains intact [2] - Peripheral products are expected to accelerate market penetration through centralized procurement, contributing to incremental growth [2] - The impact of price adjustments is expected to be fully absorbed by Q3 2025, and the company's competitiveness in the aortic field is likely to remain strong [3] - The company's overseas business is expected to accelerate following the acquisition of OMD [3] Financial Performance - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue reached 970 million RMB, a YoY increase of 9.1%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 553 million RMB, up 42.5% YoY [3] - Q3 2024 revenue was 182 million RMB, a YoY decrease of 31.7%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 150 million RMB, up 37.6% YoY [3] - Adjusted EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 are 3.86/4.27/6.19 RMB, down from previous estimates of 5.19/5.98/7.54 RMB [3] Product and Market Dynamics - Aortic stent prices were adjusted in August and September 2024, with thoracic stent prices reduced by approximately 40% and abdominal stent prices by 20%-35% [3] - The company's peripheral products, including venous stents and vena cava filters, have been approved and are expected to benefit from centralized procurement [3] - New products such as Cratos, AegisⅡ, and Hector are in development and expected to enhance the company's competitiveness in the aortic field [3] Valuation and Market Data - The company's current price is 98.06 RMB, with a 52-week price range of 79.81-206.98 RMB [4][5] - Total market capitalization is 12,087 million RMB, with 123 million shares outstanding [5] - The company's P/E ratio for 2024 is 25.41, with a target P/E of 28X for 2025 [3][4] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 1,161 million RMB, with a YoY decrease of 2.2%, while 2025E and 2026E revenues are expected to grow by 22.2% and 38.8%, respectively [9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024E is forecasted at 476 million RMB, with 2025E and 2026E profits expected to grow by 10.7% and 44.9%, respectively [9] - ROE for 2024E is projected at 11.4%, increasing to 15.8% by 2026E [9] Industry Comparison - The company's valuation is compared to peers such as Xishan Technology, United Imaging Healthcare, and SonoScape, with an average P/E ratio of 38 for 2023A, 37 for 2024E, and 28 for 2025E [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Views - The company has shown strong commercialization results with its product, Saliqi monoclonal antibody, which was launched at the end of August 2024 and has quickly gained market traction. The NDA for the rabies virus bispecific antibody is imminent, expected to contribute to revenue growth [2][3]. - The revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 12.4879 million yuan, with a net loss of 546 million yuan. Q3 alone contributed 12.4752 million yuan, primarily from the sales of IL-17 monoclonal antibody GR1501, which was approved in August 2024 [3][4]. - The forecast for EPS has been adjusted upwards for 2024-2026 to -1.83, -1.51, and -0.90 yuan respectively, from previous estimates of -2.50, -1.86, and -1.57 yuan [3]. Financial Summary - The company reported a significant increase in revenue projections, with expected revenues of 61 million yuan in 2024, 254 million yuan in 2025, and 642 million yuan in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 4,899.7%, 319.1%, and 152.9% respectively [4]. - The net profit (attributable to the parent company) is projected to improve from a loss of 672 million yuan in 2024 to a loss of 332 million yuan in 2026 [4]. - The company’s total assets are expected to decrease from 2.875 billion yuan in 2024 to 1.988 billion yuan in 2026, while total liabilities are projected to stabilize around 686 million yuan [4]. Product and Pipeline Development - The core product, Saliqi monoclonal antibody, has shown excellent initial sales performance, contributing significantly to Q3 revenue. The product is expected to continue gaining traction in a competitive market [3]. - The company has a robust pipeline with several products in various stages of development, including GR1801 (rabies bispecific antibody) entering Phase III trials, and GR1802 (IL-4R monoclonal antibody) starting Phase III clinical trials [3][4]. Market Data - The current stock price is 29.65 yuan, with a target price maintained at 40.07 yuan, indicating potential upside [5]. - The company has a market capitalization of 10.872 billion yuan and a total share capital of 367 million shares [6]. Conclusion - The report indicates a positive outlook for the company, driven by strong product performance and a promising pipeline, justifying the "Buy" rating and target price [2][3][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 59.16 RMB, up from the previous target of 48.80 RMB [2][3] Core Views - The company faces short-term pressure due to external consumption environment, with steady growth in outpatient visits but pressure on average spending per customer [3] - The dental implant business is growing through volume expansion despite price reductions, while the consumer dental segment remains under pressure [3] - The "Dandelion" branch hospitals are growing rapidly, contributing significantly to revenue, and new hospital expansions are progressing steadily [3][8] Financial Performance - In Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.233 billion RMB (+2.21% YoY), with net profit attributable to shareholders of 498 million RMB (-2.63% YoY) [8] - Gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 41.82% (-0.77 pct YoY), and net profit margin was 26.95% (-1.07 pct YoY) [8] - The company's total market capitalization is 22.525 billion RMB, with a current price of 50.36 RMB [5] Operational Highlights - Outpatient visits in Q1-Q3 2024 reached 2.65 million (+6.5% YoY), with 2.29 million visits in the home province (+4.5% YoY) and 360,000 visits outside the province (+21.7% YoY) [8] - Dental implant revenue grew to 384 million RMB (+11.7% YoY), with the number of implants increasing by 30% YoY [8] - The "Dandelion" hospitals contributed 523 million RMB in revenue (+19% YoY), accounting for 23% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 21% and a net profit margin of 12.9% [8] Expansion Plans - The company plans to open 8 new "Dandelion" hospitals in 2024, with 3 already delivered and 5 expected by year-end [8] - The Zijin Port hospital is expected to start trial operations by the end of 2024, and the new West City hospital is expected to complete relocation by 2025 [8] - The Yiwu General Hospital is expected to open between late 2024 and early 2025, with plans to open 5-8 new "Dandelion" hospitals in 2025 [8] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E is forecasted at 2.918 billion RMB (+2.5% YoY), with net profit attributable to shareholders of 521 million RMB (+4.0% YoY) [9] - EPS for 2024E is projected at 1.16 RMB, with ROE expected to be 12.1% [9] - The company's P/E ratio for 2024E is 43.26x, and the P/B ratio is 5.24x [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Views - The company has shown improved profitability through quality enhancement and lean management, with a revenue of 7.248 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, representing a 16.76% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.031 billion yuan, up 42.92% [3]. - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 is 62.66%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points year-on-year, with Q3 gross margin at 64.26%, up 7.93 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company is accelerating its research and development in biopharmaceuticals and innovative drugs, with over 120 projects in progress and 70 domestic registration approvals [3]. Financial Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.119 billion yuan, a 10.76% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 283 million yuan, up 85.09% [3]. - The EPS forecast for 2024-2026 is set at 0.90, 1.10, and 1.33 yuan respectively, with a target price of 22.50 yuan based on a PE of 21X for 2025 [3][4]. - The company’s total market capitalization is 27.208 billion yuan, with a current price of 18.55 yuan [5]. Research and Development - The company has over 120 projects under research, with significant progress in biopharmaceuticals, including 20 projects in various clinical stages [3]. - Key clinical trials include HB0034, a monoclonal antibody targeting IL-36R, and HB0017, targeting IL-17A, both showing promising results [3]. Sales and Expenses - The sales expense ratio for Q1-Q3 2024 is 18.61%, an increase of 2.91 percentage points year-on-year, while the management expense ratio decreased to 13.67% [3]. - The net profit margin reached 14.31%, an increase of 2.82 percentage points year-on-year, driven by improved gross margins and optimized expenses [3]. Market Position - The company is positioned in the pharmaceutical industry, focusing on essential consumer goods, with a strong emphasis on innovative drug development and market expansion [4].