国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.01 ——3Q24 三季报业绩点评 业绩符合预期，保持高分红策略 紫燕食品(603057) 食品饮料 [Table_Industry] /必需消费 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|------------------|---------------------|-------|-------|-------| | | [table_Authors] | | | | | | | 訾猛 ( 分析师 ) | 姚世佳 ( 分析师 ) | | | | | | 021-38676442 | 021-38676912 | | | | | | zimeng@gtjas.com | yaoshijia@gtjas.com | | | | | 登记编号 | S0880513120002 | S0880520070001 | | | | 本报告导 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to 4.94 CNY, down from the previous 7.48 CNY [5][4]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance was below expectations due to poor terminal sales influenced by weather factors and insufficient consumer confidence. However, there is an expectation for gradual improvement in sales as winter approaches [3][4]. - The company is positioned as a leading men's apparel brand, and despite the challenges, it is expected to maintain a solid market position [4]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenues of 3.54 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 420 million CNY, down 25.2% year-on-year. Q3 alone saw revenues of 1.06 billion CNY, a decline of 11.7%, and a net profit of 70 million CNY, down 51.7% year-on-year [4][5]. - The report forecasts EPS for 2024-2026 to be adjusted to 0.38, 0.43, and 0.48 CNY respectively, down from previous estimates of 0.55, 0.63, and 0.70 CNY [4]. - The company’s gross margin in Q3 improved slightly by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, despite a decline in revenue for several brands [4]. Market and Operational Insights - The company plans to focus on stabilizing channel profitability amidst weak consumer demand, with a steady pace of store openings expected in Q3 and Q4 [4]. - Recent temperature drops are anticipated to catalyze improved sales for the company's brands, particularly for the flagship brands [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's non-net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 48.98% year-on-year, indicating significant profit improvement [3] - The company is advancing its IP strategy, with a focus on the development of its animation IP layout [4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 401 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.91%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 37 million yuan, up 5.71% year-on-year [4] - For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue reached 1.206 billion yuan, down 6.20% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 130 million yuan, reflecting a 3.05% increase [4] - The gross profit for Q3 2024 was 161 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.68%, with the gross margin rising by 3.97 percentage points to 40.26% [4] EPS Forecast - The EPS forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.82 yuan, 0.97 yuan, and 1.06 yuan respectively, slightly adjusted down from previous estimates [4] Target Price - The target price is set at 33.19 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 40.4x for 2024 [4] Business Development - The company has established an animation division to accelerate its cultural and creative strategy, focusing on various product lines and enhancing copyright reserves [4] - The first offline animation-themed store was opened in Shanghai, providing a comprehensive experience space for users [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, with a target price raised to 17.85 CNY from the previous 16.66 CNY, while the current price is 14.99 CNY [5][6]. Core Views - The company's performance meets expectations, with steady progress in the whole-house business, opening up future growth opportunities. The short-term impact of the old-for-new policy has significantly boosted terminal sales [5][6]. - Revenue is currently under pressure, but overseas business shows strong performance, with a year-on-year growth of over 30% [6]. - The company plans to increase investment in management expenses, particularly in new retail channels and new product development, to improve overall profitability [6]. Financial Summary - **Revenue**: - 2022A: 5,389 million CNY - 2023A: 6,116 million CNY (up 13.5%) - 2024E: 5,788 million CNY (down 5.4%) - 2025E: 6,482 million CNY (up 12.0%) - 2026E: 7,130 million CNY (up 10.0%) [5][12] - **Net Profit (attributable to parent)**: - 2022A: 537 million CNY - 2023A: 595 million CNY (up 10.8%) - 2024E: 520 million CNY (down 12.7%) - 2025E: 598 million CNY (up 15.0%) - 2026E: 686 million CNY (up 14.8%) [5][12] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: 1.23 CNY - 2023A: 1.36 CNY - 2024E: 1.19 CNY - 2025E: 1.37 CNY - 2026E: 1.57 CNY [5][12] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2022A: 18.7% - 2023A: 18.1% - 2024E: 15.2% - 2025E: 16.1% - 2026E: 16.9% [5][12] - **Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)**: - Current: 11.00 - 2024E: 12.59 - 2025E: 10.95 - 2026E: 9.54 [5][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company, with a target price adjusted to 8.68 CNY from the previous 11.29 CNY [3][5]. Core Views - The company has seen a decrease in breeding costs, with expectations for marginal improvements in the post-cycle phase. The third quarter performance met expectations, with significant profits from breeding operations [4][5]. - The company reported a total output of 2.14 million heads in the first three quarters and has revised its 2024 sales volume forecast down to 3 million heads due to intense competition in foot-and-mouth disease vaccines, leading to a reduction in gross margin predictions for some vaccine sales [5]. - The report anticipates a continued decline in breeding costs, with average costs expected to decrease further in the fourth quarter, driven by improved breeding efficiency and epidemic prevention capabilities [5]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a revenue of 1.3087 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 11.01%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 566 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 212.14% [5]. - The report projects the company's EPS for 2024 and 2025 to be 0.57 CNY and 0.76 CNY respectively, down from previous estimates of 0.65 CNY and 0.78 CNY [5]. - The company is valued using a segment valuation method, with projected market values for its feed, veterinary, and breeding segments at 2.4 billion CNY, 3.4 billion CNY, and 6 billion CNY respectively, leading to a total target market value of 11.8 billion CNY [5]. Market Data - The company's stock price has fluctuated between 5.71 CNY and 8.94 CNY over the past 52 weeks, with a total market capitalization of 9.243 billion CNY [6]. - The company has a net asset value per share of 5.09 CNY, with a current price-to-book ratio of 1.3 [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 7.50 CNY, reflecting a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 16 times for 2024, which is above the industry average [5][3]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 revenue met expectations, but earnings fell short primarily due to lower gross margins and increased expense ratios. The company plans to continue expanding its store network, and with seasonal sales expected to improve, a stable growth in performance is anticipated for Q4 [2][3]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 9.4 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 760 million CNY, a decrease of 9.3% year-on-year. Q3 alone saw revenue of 3.44 billion CNY, up 3.2% year-on-year, but net profit dropped 36.0% to 200 million CNY [3][5]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company expects revenues to grow from 13.66 billion CNY in 2023 to 17.31 billion CNY by 2026, with annual growth rates of 2.5%, 6.5%, 9.4%, and 8.8% respectively [1]. - **Net Profit**: Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 1.12 billion CNY in 2023 to 1.49 billion CNY in 2026, with growth rates of 76.1%, 9.4%, 9.7%, and 10.4% respectively [1]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is expected to rise from 0.42 CNY in 2023 to 0.55 CNY in 2026 [1]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: The ROE is forecasted to improve from 9.8% in 2023 to 11.5% in 2026 [1]. Operational Insights - The company is actively increasing its inventory in preparation for the peak sales season, with a 14% year-on-year increase in inventory to 4.17 billion CNY by the end of Q3. This is attributed to preparations for winter sales, which are expected to perform well due to seasonal demand [3][2]. - The company has maintained a strong market position in the casual apparel sector, which supports its growth outlook despite recent earnings fluctuations [3].

股 票 研 究 公 司 更 新 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------|---------|--------|--------|-------|-------| | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入 | 800 | 1,929 | 1,926 | 2,028 | 2,082 | | (+/-)% | -10.6% | 141.2% | -0.2% | 5.3% | 2.7% | | 净利润（归母） | -130 | 423 | 307 | 332 | 359 | | (+/-)% | -400.0% | 424.3% | -27.4% | 8.2% | 8.3% | | 每股净收益（元） | -0.18 | 0.58 | 0.42 | 0.46 | 0.49 | | 净资产收益率 (%) | -3.2% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 met expectations, with accelerated deliveries and steady progress in new product development. The company is focusing on high R&D investments to support its product lineup, particularly in the electron beam critical dimension measurement equipment, which will enhance its capabilities in the electron beam sector [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 0.812 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.21%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -0.052 billion, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was -0.125 billion. The poor profit performance is attributed to increased R&D investments aimed at positioning for new products [3][4]. - For Q3 2024, revenue was 0.349 billion, up 56.79% year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.016 billion. The gross margin for Q3 was 49.64%, an increase of 2.06 percentage points year-on-year and 11.77 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 to 1.350 billion, 2.012 billion, and 3.004 billion respectively, up from previous estimates of 1.301 billion, 1.934 billion, and 2.845 billion. EPS estimates for the same period have been revised down to 0.31, 0.83, and 2.05 yuan respectively [3][4]. Product Development - The company is advancing its product lineup, including: 1. Mass-produced products such as non-graphic wafer defect detection, which is gaining market share. 2. Ongoing development in advanced packaging fields like HBM and 2.5/3D. 3. Steady progress in the development of advanced models for film thickness measurement and overlay accuracy measurement [3]. - The company is also validating products with domestic customers, with small batch shipments for bright field and dark field products [3]. Market Positioning - The company is positioned to cover both optical and electron beam measurement sectors, which opens up significant growth potential. The electron beam critical dimension measurement equipment accounts for 8.1% of the value of measurement equipment, indicating a strategic move to enhance its product offerings [3]. Valuation - The target price has been raised to 94.32 yuan from the previous 81.31 yuan, based on a 15x PS for 2025, reflecting the company's growth potential and low domestic replacement rate in the measurement segment [3][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating and raises the target price to $643 [4][18]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with strong profits from the Family of Apps (FoA) and significant capital expenditure to embrace AI in the future. The Llama 4 lightweight model is expected to complete training by early 2025 [3][4]. - The advertising business showed robust growth, with Q3 total revenue reaching $40.589 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19%, slightly above market expectations, driven by strong advertising demand and AI integration. The gross margin remained at 82%, and net profit was $15.688 billion, with a net profit margin of 39%, up 5 percentage points year-on-year [4][18]. - The company plans to increase capital expenditure to $38-40 billion in 2024, up from a previous target of $37-40 billion, to support AI development and core business growth [4][18]. Financial Overview - Q3 revenue from the FoA business was $40.319 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19%, with advertising revenue and other income growing by 18.55% and 48.12%, respectively. The average price per ad and impressions increased by 11% and 7% year-on-year [4][18]. - The Reality Labs segment generated $270 million in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 28.57%, primarily driven by hardware sales, although it reported an operating loss of $4.428 billion due to increased employee-related expenses and infrastructure costs [4][18]. - The updated GAAP net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are $55.753 billion, $65.693 billion, and $72.884 billion, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 26X, 22X, and 20X [4][18]. Application Family Performance - The application family revenue grew by 19% year-on-year in Q3, with a stable revenue structure despite a slowdown in growth [11][12]. - The average revenue per user (ARPPU) increased by 12% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in monetization [14]. Virtual Reality Labs - The Virtual Reality Labs segment maintained stable revenue growth, with Q3 revenue increasing by 29% year-on-year, although it continued to incur losses [16][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 153.13 CNY [2][4]. Core Views - The company has achieved record high revenue and profit in Q3, with a steady recovery in the consumer market and an increasing market share in high-end CIS solutions [2][4]. - The company is a leader in the domestic image sensor market, with an upward revision of EPS for 2024-2026 to 2.63, 3.58, and 4.55 CNY respectively [4]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 18.908 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 25.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.375 billion CNY, up 544.74% year-on-year [4]. - In Q3 2024 alone, the company achieved revenue of 6.817 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.55% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.73% [4]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 29.61%, an increase of 8.33 percentage points compared to the same period in 2023 [4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is deepening its focus on CIS solutions, with significant advancements in various sectors: - In smartphones, the introduction of a 1.2um 50MP high-end image sensor has led to a substantial market share increase [4]. - In automotive electronics, the company’s CIS solutions cover multiple applications, contributing to a growing market presence [4]. - In security, the company is enhancing its high-end product offerings using Nyxel® near-infrared technology [4]. - In AR/VR, the company’s global exposure technology is leading in features like eye tracking and simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) [4]. Financial Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 26.98 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 28.3% [8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 3.188 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a significant recovery from previous years [8].