Workflow
icon
Search documents
申洲国际(02313):“织”道系列7:格局增势,或跃在渊
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-16 00:36
[Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司深度丨申洲国际(02313.HK) [Table_Title] "织"道系列 7——申洲国际深度:格局增势, 或跃在渊 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司凭借成熟的纵向一体化布局构建壁垒,海外产能+专用工厂+大单快反实现优秀的生产效率 与头部客户的深度绑定,并以领先的面料研发能力强化客户粘性,稀缺制造能力不变,我们判 断当前估值处于低位,未来将有望逐步修复。展望未来:收入端,产品多元化下竞争力强化, Adidas、优衣库等老客份额提升下贡献收入弹性,今年有望实现双位数增长,伴随 Nike 修复与 行业景气度回升增速有望提升。利润端,H2 伴随劳动力成本、所得税率基数平稳,H2 利润有 望环比提速,明年 Nike 修复有望驱动更优的盈利弹性。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于旭辉 魏杏梓 SAC:S0490518020002 SAC:S0490524020003 SFC:BUU942 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 35 %% %% %% %% ...
海澜之家(600398):海澜之家2025Q3点评:主品牌稳健,期待新业务后续贡献成长
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-15 23:44
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][2]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.19 billion, 2.45 billion, and 2.68 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth of 2%, 12%, and 10% respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 14, 13, and 11 times. Under the assumption of a 90% dividend payout ratio, the dividend yield for 2025 is estimated to reach 6.4% [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 15.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.86 billion yuan, down 2.4% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.82 billion yuan, up 3.9% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue reached 4.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, with a net profit of 280 million yuan, up 3.9% year-on-year [4][2]. Business Segment Analysis - The main brand showed steady growth, with Q3 revenue increasing by 3% to 2.46 billion yuan. The direct sales channel is expected to achieve positive same-store growth, although online channel revenue decreased by 20% year-on-year. The gross margin for the main brand in Q3 improved by 3.1 percentage points, attributed to channel structure optimization and reduced promotional activities [10][4]. - Group purchasing benefited from an improved competitive landscape and customer expansion, with Q3 revenue rising by 43% to 540 million yuan. However, the gross margin for this segment decreased by 9.3 percentage points year-on-year due to price reductions aimed at increasing orders and the lower margin associated with the new workwear segment [10][4]. - Other brands experienced a revenue increase of 7% to 910 million yuan in Q3, indicating stable growth [10][4].
1114 港股日评:港股整体调整,恒生科技承压-20251115
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-15 13:50
Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market experienced an overall adjustment, with the Hang Seng Technology Index leading the decline, down 2.82% to 5812.8 [2][5] - The total market turnover reached HKD 232.79 billion, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to HKD 12.887 billion [5] - Concerns over global semiconductor demand recovery were heightened due to disappointing earnings from a Japanese storage giant, negatively impacting the hard technology sector [5] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.85% to 26572.46, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 2.09% to 9397.96 [2] - In the A-share market, the Shanghai Composite Index declined by 0.97%, and the CSI 300 Index fell by 1.57% [2] - Among the sectors, Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (+1.03%) and Computer (+0.03%) were the top gainers, while Retail (-3.88%) and Non-ferrous Metals (-3.56%) were the biggest losers [2] Sector Analysis - The hard technology sector, including semiconductors and hardware, faced downward pressure due to concerns about the recovery of storage chip demand following poor earnings reports [5] - Conversely, the daily consumer retail sector saw a rise driven by strong earnings reports from major weighted stocks, boosting investor confidence [5] Future Outlook - Potential growth areas for the Hong Kong stock market include AI technology and new consumption trends, which are expected to drive market increases [5] - Continuous inflow of southbound funds is anticipated to enhance marginal pricing power in the Hong Kong market [5] - The transition from loose monetary policy to loose credit in China, along with potential further interest rate cuts in the U.S., could support the Hong Kong market's upward trajectory [5]
ETF 掘金图鉴系列报告之三:科创债投资手册
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-15 13:45
[Table_Title] 科创债投资手册 ——ETF 掘金图鉴系列报告之三 固定收益丨深度报告 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 科创债历经"双创债"探索、"交易所+银行间"双市场格局构建,至 2025 年科创债 ETF 上市 及债市"科技板"推进进入成熟阶段,政策持续完善发行主体、资金用途等规则。截至 2025 年 9 月,其存量达 28286 亿元,科技创新公司债占比超 58%,产业类主体为主导;发行规模从 2020 年的 5 亿增至 2025 年截至 9 月底的超过 1.25 万亿元,发行利率波动下降,央国企发行 科创债偏好长期限。二级市场科创债流动性优于非科创债,其中高评级、中短期品种表现更佳。 分析师及联系人 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC:S0490524080003 SAC:S0490524120005 SFC:BVN394 SFC:BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 23 一级市场:科创债发行规模跨越式增长,主体结构分化 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Ta ...
电子行业 2025 年三季度业绩综述:AI 赋能,国产崛起,助力电子板块腾飞
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-15 09:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the electronic industry [13] Core Insights - The electronic industry achieved a revenue of 31,134.52 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.15%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1,587.57 billion yuan, up 28.96% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the industry continued its growth trend with revenues of 11,778.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.91%, and a net profit of 660.38 billion yuan, growing 42.48% year-on-year [2][5][23] Summary by Sections Semiconductor: Driven by AI and Domestic Production - The semiconductor sector generated revenues of 6,466.09 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 9.26% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 405.91 billion yuan, up 27.08%. In Q3 2025, revenues were 2,312.49 billion yuan, growing 9.43% year-on-year, and net profit reached 173.78 billion yuan, a 53.55% increase year-on-year [6][41] Consumer Electronics: Innovation as the Main Theme - The consumer electronics sector achieved revenues of 7,762.64 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 21.06% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 338.11 billion yuan, up 28.72%. In Q3 2025, revenues were 3,070.05 billion yuan, growing 18.17% year-on-year, and net profit was 151.47 billion yuan, a 33.47% increase year-on-year [7][55] Display Devices: High Utilization Rates and Steady Growth - The display device sector reported revenues of 4,088.18 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 6.51% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 64.57 billion yuan, up 51.68%. In Q3 2025, revenues were 1,454.74 billion yuan, growing 8.62% year-on-year, and net profit was 19.60 billion yuan, a 29.50% increase year-on-year [8][71] Passive Components: Steady Recovery in Demand - The passive components sector achieved revenues of 400.86 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 19.17% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 45.79 billion yuan, up 18.03%. In Q3 2025, revenues were 141.60 billion yuan, growing 17.78% year-on-year, and net profit was 15.71 billion yuan, a 17.32% increase year-on-year [9] LED: Price Stabilization and Emerging Technology Breakthroughs - The LED sector reported revenues of 927.50 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 5.83% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 25.15 billion yuan, down 8.43%. In Q3 2025, revenues were 324.24 billion yuan, growing 8.92% year-on-year, and net profit was 6.96 billion yuan, a 3.64% decrease year-on-year [10] PCB: Sustained Mid-to-Long-Term Prosperity - The PCB sector achieved revenues of 2,132.40 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 25.81% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 202.30 billion yuan, up 65.29%. In Q3 2025, revenues were 795.57 billion yuan, growing 26.94% year-on-year, and net profit was 80.80 billion yuan, a 75.64% increase year-on-year [11]
10 月经济数据点评:水落,石出
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-15 09:03
Economic Performance - In October, industrial added value grew by 4.9% year-on-year, while social retail sales increased by 2.9%, and fixed asset investment fell by 11.2% year-on-year, marking the second-lowest growth since data collection began[7][10]. - The decline in fixed asset investment is primarily due to weakened internal demand, with private and public investment growth both decreasing[10]. Production and Manufacturing - The industrial production growth rate fell below 5% for the first time since September 2024, with a significant drop in export delivery value, which turned negative at -2.1%[10][11]. - The comprehensive PMI output index dropped to 50%, indicating the weakest performance in 2023[10]. Consumer Behavior - Despite a high base effect, social retail sales maintained positive growth, with a two-year compound growth rate slightly improving compared to September[10]. - Optional consumption faced increased pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 7.2% in October, particularly in automotive and home appliance sales[10]. Economic Outlook - The high base effect from last year suggests that October likely marks the low point for monthly growth in 2025[10]. - Future growth elasticity is expected to rely more on external demand, supported by a stable global manufacturing PMI and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[10][11]. Risks - External economic volatility remains a concern, particularly due to uncertainties in U.S. economic policies[10]. - The effectiveness of domestic policy measures to stabilize the economy is uncertain, especially in the context of ongoing manufacturing PMI contraction[10].
东阿阿胶(000423):业绩符合预期,统筹布局海外业务
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-15 09:01
丨证券研究报告丨 研究报告合规审查 工作底稿(个股报告)-东阿阿胶-点评(1).docx [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨东阿阿胶(000423.SZ) [Table_Title] 业绩符合预期,统筹布局海外业务 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 10 月 25 日,公司发布 2025 年三季度报告。2025 年 1-9 月实现营业收入 47.66 亿元, 同比增长 4.41%;实现归母净利润 12.74 亿元,同比增长 10.53%;实现扣非归母净利润 11.55 亿元,同比增长 8.23%。2025 年第三季度,公司实现营业收入 17.16 亿元,同比增长 8.50%; 实现归母净利润 4.56 亿元,同比增长 10.27%;实现扣非归母净利润 3.68 亿元,同比增长 0.06%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 彭英骐 张楠 SAC:S0490524030005 SAC:S0490524070006 SFC:BUZ392 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com [Table_scodeMsg ...
创新链系列:创新链板块 2025Q3 业绩综述:海外和国内需求持续向好
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-15 08:58
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the healthcare industry is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The performance of the innovation chain sector is outstanding, showing significant growth in the pharmaceutical sub-sectors, particularly in CXO and life sciences services, driven by improving domestic and overseas demand [2][6] - The innovation chain sector has become the fastest-growing segment in the pharmaceutical industry, with a revenue growth rate exceeding 10% in both Q2 and Q3 of 2025 [6][26] - The overall revenue for the innovation chain sector reached 956.8 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 10% [26] Summary by Sections Overseas Demand - The overseas demand is on an upward trend, supported by a favorable industrial cycle and the emergence of new technologies such as peptides and ADCs, leading to a significant recovery in the biopharmaceutical investment and financing amounts [7] - Chinese CDMO companies have seen a noticeable improvement in new orders and backlog amounts, with year-on-year growth rates recovering to over 15% [7] Domestic Demand - The domestic demand for innovative drug research and development is improving, with diversified funding sources and new business models accelerating the drug development and commercialization process [8] - Companies with strong capabilities in drug discovery CRO, such as Kanglong Chemical and Hongbo Pharmaceutical, are experiencing improved revenue performance [8] CXO and Life Sciences Services - The CXO sector maintained double-digit revenue growth, contributing significantly to the overall revenue of the innovation chain sector, with a total revenue of 708.4 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, up 13% year-on-year [41] - The life sciences services sector is also showing positive trends, with revenue growth accelerating and profitability steadily improving [6][41]
中国中免(601888):2025 年三季报点评:收入降幅收窄,期待新政效果
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-15 08:57
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9] Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 11.711 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 452 million yuan, down 28.94% year-on-year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 441 million yuan, a decline of 30.56% year-on-year [2][6] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 39.862 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.052 billion yuan, down 22.13% year-on-year [6] - The Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Culture and Tourism, General Administration of Customs, and State Taxation Administration issued a notice to improve the duty-free shop policy starting November 1, 2025, which includes support for domestic products entering duty-free shops, expanding the range of products, relaxing approval permissions, and enhancing convenience and regulatory measures [2][6] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2025 financials: Revenue of 11.711 billion yuan, net profit of 452 million yuan, and net profit after non-recurring items of 441 million yuan [2][6] - First three quarters of 2025: Revenue of 39.862 billion yuan, net profit of 3.052 billion yuan, and net profit after non-recurring items of 3.036 billion yuan [6] - Expected net profit for 2025-2027: 3.644 billion yuan, 4.250 billion yuan, and 5.026 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 51.39, 44.07, and 37.26 [2][6] Market and Policy Impact - The new duty-free policy is expected to enhance consumer shopping experience and willingness, potentially boosting sales in the future [6] - The company is positioned as a leading player in China's duty-free industry, leveraging its core competitive advantages in channels, scale, and brand management [6]
伟星新材(002372):他山之石坚定信心,全屋水系统面向未来
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-15 08:22
[Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨深度报告丨伟星新材(002372.SZ) [Table_Title] 他山之石坚定信心,全屋水系统面向未来 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 长维度看公司保持了稳定的增长和优异的盈利水平,2022 年开始因地产周期的下行压力持续 加大,公司收入出现阶段性的下滑,同时盈利能力出现一定回落。经营的承压是短期的波动还 是长期的变化,本篇文章从 2 个角度出发进行分析:1)他山之石:海外龙头的历史复盘;2) 面向未来:公司当前现状及长期空间。我们认为公司的经营压力更多来自β,竞争优势依然明 显,且随着全屋水系统展开,长期成长空间正在打开。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 范超 李浩 SAC:S0490513080001 SAC:S0490520080026 SFC:BQK473 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 24 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_scodeMsg2] 伟星新材(002372.SZ) cjzqdt1 ...