丨证券研究报告丨 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 行业研究丨专题报告丨多元金融 [Table_Title] 2026 为何重视券商投行拐点及科创板跟投？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 券商投行业务经历了 2022-2024 三年收缩后，2025 年迎来了向上拐点，业务量及收入均显著 提升。同时受科创板行情回暖影响，2025 年券商科创板跟投收益大幅改善。展望 2026 年，随 着市场交投及权益自营基数走高，传统经纪及自营收入弹性减弱背景下，投行承销收入及跟投 收益有望成为券商业绩的重要边际增量。看好龙头券商有望以资源、规模优势持续巩固竞争优 势，推荐国泰海通、中信证券、中金公司。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 吴一凡 戴永飞 SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490524070001 SFC：BUV596 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 [Table_Title2] 2026 为何重视券商投行拐点及科创板跟投？ [Table_Summary2] 券商投行业务经历三年收紧周期后，迎来向上修复拐点 券商投行业务经历了 2022-2024 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - Google has released Gemini 3 Flash, which combines high performance with low cost. The model shows a threefold speed improvement compared to Gemini 2.5 Pro, with response times under one second. It also reduces token usage by approximately 30%, making it significantly cheaper than its predecessor [10][10] - The FORCE conference saw the launch of Doubao Model 1.8, optimized for multimodal agent scenarios, enhancing its ability to handle complex tasks. Its video understanding capability has doubled, and it supports intelligent context management, leading to a tenfold increase in daily usage compared to the previous year [10][10] - The report suggests focusing on specific AI segments, including high-quality IP benefiting from AI advancements, major internet companies with traffic and data advantages, verticals like advertising and education that have proven business models abroad, and AI-integrated gaming companies [10][10] Summary by Sections Event Description - Google launched Gemini 3 Flash, which offers high performance and low cost. Doubao Model 1.8 and Seedance 1.5 pro were also released at the FORCE conference [5][5] Event Commentary - Gemini 3 Flash's core advantages include high-speed responses, superior performance in benchmark tests, and significant cost efficiency. Doubao Model 1.8 enhances visual understanding and supports complex task management, leading to substantial growth in usage metrics [10][10]

——银行业 2026 年度投资策略 行业研究丨深度报告丨银行 [Table_Title] 经营周期与配置价值的再平衡 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 风险底线牢固是银行股估值修复的基础，银行股仍处于确立风险底线的进程中，稳定的配置价 值主导估值修复，长期角度金融供给侧改革加速，国有行和头部城商行份额加速集中。基本面 维度，2026 年重点关注净息差企稳与零售风险压力，预计 2026 年行业负债成本继续改善推动 净息差有望实现企稳，资产质量重点关注按揭等房抵类资产风险压力，预计目前银行按揭贷款 LTV 仍处于可控水平。目前银行股 PB-ROE 视角下仍被显著低估，短期资金面波动不改变银行 股配置价值，险资等配置型资金力量仍在持续加仓应对资产荒压力。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 27 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Tit ...

丨证券研究报告丨 中国经济丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 当出口链回暖遭遇利润率回落 %% %% research.95579.com 1 ——1-11 月工业企业利润点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 11 月工业企业利润同比增速续降至-13.1%，与当月出口的走强出现明显分化，有部分行业利润 调整的影响在，但整体内需动能的趋弱也值得关注：11 月工业企业当月的库存、周转等指标均 在转差。年末，在外需支撑减弱，内需并未明显改善的情况下，企业经营压力或仍在不断累积， 且有进一步传导到就业市场的趋势。展望未来，2026 年上半年政策靠前发力实现"开门红"的 可能性仍较大，内需稳增长有望对冲外需不确定性，并推动企业利润长期企稳向好。 [Table_Author] 于博 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% [Table_Title 当出口链回暖遭遇利润率回落 2] ——1-11 月工业企业利润点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2025 年 12 月 27 日，国家统计局公布数据：11 月规模以上工业企业利润总额同比 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 战略数据研究丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 人民币升值下的"春季躁动"机会有何不同 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 我们认为此轮人民币升值下跨年行情配置可以落地的交易策略为中期"泛科技"+短期"防御"， 即重点关注：商业航天、机器人、AI 应用端等机会，不因当下的汇率升值而切换至传统金融防 御，科技仍是第一生产力。卫星策略上可以以较低仓位布局防守/补涨主线，如直接受益于人民 币升值的造纸与航空机场，正值年报预告披露期，汇率升值带来的业绩增厚预期将在短期内被 反复交易。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈洁敏 SAC：S0490518120005 SFC：BUT348 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 人民币升值下的"春季躁动"机会有何不同 [Table_Summary2] 跨年布局机会：人民币升值下的受益全景图 在北向资金因圣诞假期缺席背景下，上证指数（也简称为沪指）依托内资强劲动能实现"八连 阳"，并在 12 月 25、26 日连续两日维持 1.9 万亿以上成交额，市 ...

市场策略丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 水到渠成，万舸争腾——A 股 2026 年度投资策 略 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2026 年市场展望：水到渠成，慢牛延续。1）盈利：盈利底部拐点已现，充裕的流动性和资本 开支逐渐兑现在上市公司的业绩当中。2）估值：股债性价比处于历史均值附近，低利率时代继 续提供估值上行动力，在中长期资金入市的背景下，中国股市的证券化率仍有较大提升空间。 行业配置展望：科技已至，周期渐起。在大类资产配置-普林格周期视角下，仍看好美股和商品。 按照下一个五年规划的政策指引方向，建议关注科技方向、国内大循环、战略安全和对外开放 等几个重点方向。在科技制造和部分周期的行情推动下，市场有望出现更加全面的牛市行情。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 李巍东 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 60 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title 水到渠成，万舸争腾—— ...

[Table_Summary] 2026 年债市预计宽幅震荡、交易属性提升，我们认为财政发债拉久期和"货币赤字化"不及预 期或成为主要原因。预计明年 10 年期国债含税收益率在 1.6%-1.9%区间震荡、中枢 1.7%，延 续"低利率+高波动+下有底、上有顶"。后续若想要超长债利差修复，我们提出了主要的三种 路径。节奏上，Q1 前段预计收益率易下难上，Q2-Q3 债市或逆风，Q4 重新找方向。由于债市 的抢跑和透支，今年前三季度经济基本面对于债市中性偏空，明年或保持相似影响节奏，债市 对基本面的定价或也延续非对称性。 research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 固定收益丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 迎接债市新时代——债市 2026 年度投资策略 %% %% %% %% 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 熊锋 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SAC：S0490524120004 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 SFC：BWI629 马月 马玮健 SAC：S0490525080001 请阅读最 ...

Core Insights - The report discusses the increasing attention on the "negative duration" strategy in the bond market, particularly in the context of a bearish market trend observed in the second half of the year, where most pure bond funds experienced significant net value declines, while some managed to rise against the trend [5][6][19]. - The report highlights that executing a negative duration strategy can yield positive returns even during periods of rising bond yields, contrasting with traditional long-duration strategies that are prone to losses in a declining market [6][19]. Market Trends - The bond market has shown a clear bearish trend in the second half of the year, characterized by multiple consecutive declines, with the 30-year active treasury futures price dropping from 121 to 114, reflecting a yield increase of nearly 40 basis points [5][13]. - The report notes that the market downturn is not merely a fluctuation but exhibits distinct characteristics of a bear market, influenced by factors such as the "stock-bond seesaw" effect and "anti-involution" policies [5][16]. Strategy Implementation - The negative duration strategy is being executed by brokerage proprietary trading desks, which establish short positions in treasury futures while simultaneously borrowing and selling long-term treasury bonds to capitalize on the price declines during rising interest rates [6][19]. - The report indicates a notable increase in the borrowing balance of 30-year treasury bonds by brokerage firms since mid-November, reflecting the implementation of short-selling strategies [20][21]. Fund Performance - Some public funds have successfully utilized treasury futures to implement a temporary negative duration strategy, resulting in net value increases during a period of rising interest rates, while other similar funds saw significant declines [7][22]. - The report emphasizes that public funds are allowed to participate in treasury futures trading, albeit with restrictions on position sizes and trading volumes, which provides a regulatory framework for executing negative duration strategies [22]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the focus on negative duration strategies may increase in a low-interest-rate environment characterized by heightened market volatility, with expectations of wide fluctuations in long-term treasury yields, specifically forecasting the 10-year yield to oscillate between 1.8% and 1.9%, and the 30-year yield between 2.2% and 2.4% [27].

丨证券研究报告丨 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 行业研究丨专题报告丨银行 [Table_Title] 如何理解央行个人信用修复政策？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 12 月 22 日央行发布一次性个人信用修复政策，为逾期记录人群提供信用修复机会。政策针对 每笔 1 万元以内的逾期金额，精准聚焦小额逾期、诚信还款的客群。对于个人而言，政策激励 目前逾期的客群尽快还款，对于历史上有逾期记录但已经结清欠款的客群，有利于未来正常新 增贷款的审批。不过，与个人破产制度不同，信用修复的核心前提是全额偿还累计欠款。对于 银行而言，可能加快逾期客户还款，改善资产质量预期，并小幅增加零售贷款投放。 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 如何理解央行个人信用修复政策？ [Table_Summary2] 央行首发信用修复政策，为逾期记录人群提供信用修复机会 12 月 22 日央行发布一次性个人信用修复政策 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - The average transaction price for Guangdong Province in 2026 is projected to be 372.14 RMB/MWh, reaching the lower limit of the medium to long-term trading price, which represents a year-on-year decrease of 19.72 RMB/MWh. If the impact of the coal power capacity price increase in 2026 is considered, the comprehensive average electricity price will remain roughly the same as in 2025 [2][13]. - The total transaction volume for Guangdong Province in 2026 is expected to reach 359.437 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.38% [6][13]. - The Southern Energy Regulatory Bureau has emphasized the prohibition of signing "yin-yang contracts" and will strictly investigate violations in medium to long-term electricity trading. This indicates a focus on maintaining market order and rational trading [2][13]. - The report suggests that if electricity prices experience irrational declines, a new round of mechanism reforms may be initiated. The publication of the long-term electricity price in Guangdong marks the beginning of a new phase in the national electricity price negotiations [13]. Summary by Sections Section: Price Trends - The long-term electricity price has reached its lower limit, indicating potential volatility in prices if not constrained. The regulatory body has issued guidelines to ensure compliance and market stability [2][13]. - The coal power capacity price is set to increase from 100 RMB/year·kW to 165 RMB/year·kW in 2026, which, combined with a decrease in coal power utilization hours, will affect the average price for coal power units, keeping it stable compared to 2025 [2][13]. Section: Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the supply-demand relationship is becoming more relaxed, with an increase in new coal power installations, which may exert downward pressure on electricity prices. The dual-track pricing system of medium to long-term and spot markets is also contributing to this dynamic [13]. - The report recommends focusing on quality coal power operators such as Huaneng International, Datang Power, and others, as well as hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and Guotou Power, and new energy firms like Longyuan Power and China Nuclear Power [13].