[Table_Title] 谁来接棒托底内需？ 丨证券研究报告丨 中国经济丨点评报告 ——11 月经济数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 从 11 月经济和政策信号来看，一方面是过去经济增长的结构性支撑在持续转弱，但另一方面， 政策对短期波动的定力不减反增：2025 年中央经济工作会议首次提出（将）"存量政策和增量 政策纳入宏观政策取向一致性评估。"12 月政治局会议首次提出"坚持内需主导"，均体现出在 政策端对于加速培育新业态发展的决心进一步增强。我们认为，在人口老龄化、地方化债的背 景下，地产基建投资或难有显著改善，"反内卷"则抑制着制造业投资的弹性，这意味着投资的 上行空间较为有限，叠加耐用品消费明显承压，服务消费料将成为 2026 托底内需的主要抓手。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com ——11 月经济数据点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2025 年 12 月 15 日，国家统计局公布 11 月经济数 ...

行业研究丨深度报告丨电气设备 [Table_Title] 新章与更序 ——电新行业 2026 年度投资策略 [Table_Summary] 复盘过去 6 年电新行业股价走势，我们认为作为典型的成长性行业，"需求"是最核心驱动要 素，同时"价格"贡献额外弹性。2026 年作为十五五第一年，我们认为电新行业底层需求驱动 因素出现变化，有望催动新一轮需求景气周期：1）宏观层面，新能源发展方向不变，人工智能、 具身智能产业趋势明确；2）中观层面，新能源转向高质量发展，消纳逐步成为核心，人工智能 将拉动全球电力需求开启新的增长；3）微观层面，电新各细分赛道均有不同程度受益。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 邬博华 曹海花 司鸿历 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490522030001 SAC：S0490520080002 SFC：BQK482 SFC：BVD284 叶之楠 袁澎 王耀 SAC：S0490520090003 SAC：S0490524010001 SAC：S0490524120006 任佳惠 喻亨一 周圣钧 SAC：S0490524070005 SAC：S049052503 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report From December 8 - 12, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a small net capital injection, and the 6M repurchase in December had a net injection of 20 billion yuan. The government bond net payment scale decreased, the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio increased on average, and the median duration of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds changed. Tax - period disturbances may hinder the decline of overnight funding rates [2][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Funds - **Central Bank Operations**: From December 8 - 12, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net injection of 470 million yuan. In December, the 6M repurchase had a net injection of 20 billion yuan. From December 15 - 19, 7 - day reverse repurchases worth 66.85 billion yuan will mature, 40 billion yuan of 6M repurchases will mature, and 60 billion yuan will be issued. The decrease in net repurchase injection in December may be due to banks' preference for 1 - year policy tools [6]. - **Funding Rates**: From December 8 - 12, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 decreased by 1.2 and 0.7 basis points respectively compared to December 1 - 5. The average values of DR007 and R007 increased by 1.1 and 0.6 basis points respectively. The overnight rate DR001 dropped below 1.30%. However, due to the tax - period payment disturbance after December 15, overnight funding rates may face volatility [7]. - **Government Bond Net Financing**: From December 8 - 14, 2025, the government bond net payment scale was about 1.48 billion yuan, 17.18 billion yuan less than December 1 - 7. From December 15 - 21, the expected net payment scale is - 8.394 billion yuan [7]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Yield and Curve**: As of December 12, 2025, the 1M and 3M inter - bank certificate of deposit yields were 1.6150%, up 3.6 and 0.0 basis points respectively from December 5. The 1Y yield was 1.6600%, up 0.5 basis points from November 28. The decline in certificate of deposit rates was hindered by weak bond market sentiment and limited impact of marginal changes in funding on pricing [8]. - **Net Financing**: From December 8 - 14, 2025, the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit was about - 12.06 billion yuan. From December 15 - 21, the expected maturity repayment amount is 106.29 billion yuan, with high roll - over pressure [8]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio**: From December 8 - 12, 2025, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.63%, up from 107.56% in December 1 - 5 [9]. - **Bond Fund Duration**: On December 12, 2025, the median duration of medium - long - term interest - style pure bond funds increased by 0.44 years week - on - week, reaching the 92.6% quantile since early 2022. The median duration of short - term interest - style pure bond funds decreased by 0.30 years week - on - week, at the 18.2% quantile [9].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨运输 [Table_Title] 2026 年投资展望：星途跨海，价值新章 ——交运周专题 2025W50 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 展望 2026 年，我们梳理了航空、海运、物流细分板块的投资机会：1）航空：供需错配箭在弦 上：需求趋势确定向上，实际供给走向下滑，价格弹性逐年释放，盈利拾级而上。2）海运：中 国出海由产品、产业向资本转变，产能释放将重塑全球贸易格局，干散货海运供需拐点将至， 油轮板块景气持续兑现，区域内集运供需结构较优。3）物流：中国优势产业正加速出海，驱动 新兴市场跨境物流景气向好。国内市场竞争秩序重构，从内卷式竞争走向高质量发展，快递物 流格局有望改善，龙头公司估值有望重估；大宗物流价格具备向上弹性，底部布局周期反转。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Author] SFC：BQK468 SFC：BWN875 SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490520020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S04905 ...

行业研究丨深度报告丨零售业 [Table_Title] 细分需求企稳，甄选供给优化 ——商贸零售行业 2026 年度投资策略 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 我们认为，内需有望逐步企稳，出口需求仍存在较多结构性看点。在此背景下，我们着重供给 逻辑、甄选供给端格局优化的子行业。出口方向，需求端看好一带一路的相对景气和北美结构 性需求，供给侧看好合规性提升过程中龙头出口企业的优势增强机遇；美容护理板块，看好高 端和极致性价比两个价格带进入门槛较高、格局相对稳定的细分方向；实体零售板块，龙头企 业门店供给调整相对彻底，伴随供应链改革逐步展开，有望迎来盈利优化；黄金珠宝板块，持 续看好具备强饰品化能力的珠宝品牌，在当前阶段更加迎合消费者需求的增长机遇。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 李锦 罗祎 秦意昂 SAC：S0490514080004 SAC：S0490520080019 SAC：S0490524110002 SFC：BUV258 张彦淳 曾维朵 SAC：S0490525080008 请阅读最后评级说明和 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨钢铁 [Table_Title] 钢铁实施出口许可证管理，影响几何？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 12 月 12 日，外贸司公告 2025 年第 79 号文，公布对部分钢铁产品实施出口许可证管理，将部 分钢铁产品纳入出口许可证管理的目录，对外贸易经营者出口上述货物，应凭货物出口合同、 生产商开具的产品质量检验合格证明申领出口许可证，公告自 2026 年 1 月 1 日起执行。强化 钢铁出口的管理，目的或是遏制以"买单出口"为代表的低端出口。买单出口本质是皮包贸易 公司和钢企虚构合同（即买单），以逃避增值税的方式出口。通过严控出口许可证的手段，使得 皮包贸易公司难以存续，也就切断了买单出口的关键环节。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 赵超 易轰 吕士诚 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490520080012 SAC：S0490525080005 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUY139 SFC：BUZ394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [11] Core Insights - The sales of sanitation equipment from January to October 2025 increased by 7.3% year-on-year, with new energy sanitation equipment sales growing by 66.6%. The penetration rate of new energy sanitation equipment reached 25.9% in October [2][6] - The competitive landscape for leading companies like Yingfeng Environment remains strong, although competition among top players is showing signs of marginal slowdown in the second half of 2025 [7][26] - The penetration rate of electric sanitation equipment in pilot cities reached approximately 27.7% from January to October 2025, indicating rapid progress in electrification [8][32] - The report highlights the growth opportunities for new energy sanitation equipment driven by carbon reduction policies and local government debt management strategies [9][37] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - From January to October 2025, sanitation equipment sales totaled 62,763 units, with a notable recovery in demand after years of decline. The sales in October alone reached 5,098 units, marking an 11.6% increase year-on-year [6][18] - New energy sanitation vehicle sales reached 11,605 units during the same period, with a cumulative penetration rate of approximately 18.5% [20][22] Competitive Landscape - The market concentration (CR10) for sanitation equipment was 55.3% in 2025, down from 58.6% in 2024, indicating increased competition from long-tail brands [7][26] - Yingfeng Environment leads the new energy sanitation equipment market with a 28.9% market share, followed by Yutong and Fulongma at 13.7% and 6.8%, respectively [30][31] Electrification Progress - The report notes that pilot cities for electric sanitation vehicles achieved a penetration rate of 27.7%, significantly higher than the national average of 18.5%. Cities like Zhengzhou and Shenzhen showed particularly high rates of 53.1% and 51.1% [8][32] Policy and Market Outlook - The report emphasizes that the growth of the sanitation equipment industry is closely tied to government policies and local fiscal conditions. The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" phase will focus on carbon emission control, which is expected to further drive the adoption of new energy sanitation equipment [9][37]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨银行 [Table_Title] 如何理解银行股年末资金面波动？ ——银行业周度追踪 2025 年第 49 周 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 银行股四季度初上涨与近期调整，主要反映年末交易性资金的配置行为波动。10 月上旬银行指 数基金获得大幅流入，10 月 17 日单周净流入金额高达 82 亿元，创近年来周度历史新高。但 最近连续五周，银行指数基金持续净流出，并且近两周流出力度扩大，本周净流出 26 亿元。我 们预计主要反映季度和季末对于市场风险偏好的预期变化，同时基金投资分类为 TPL 账户，预 计保险等机构年底也存在兑现收益的需要。我们认为跨年节点过后，配置力量将重新推升银行 股估值及银行指数基金规模。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 如何理解银行股年末资金面波动？ 2] ——银行业周度追踪 2025 年第 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the airport service industry [8]. Core Insights - The introduction of foreign participants in the new round of duty-free tenders at Shanghai Pudong, Hongqiao, and Beijing Capital airports marks a significant change in the competitive landscape [2][4]. - Dufry, a global leader in travel retail, has entered the bidding process, indicating a shift towards a more diversified and competitive market in China's duty-free sector [4][21]. - The bidding rules now allow only one segment win per bidder, breaking the previous monopoly held by China Duty Free Group [14][21]. - The overall commission rates for duty-free contracts are expected to increase unless there is a substantial growth in sales volumes [2][6]. Summary by Sections Duty-Free Tender Competition Intensifies - Major airports in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have seen a significant drop in international passenger numbers from 2020 to 2022, leading to the expiration of restructured duty-free contracts [4][16]. - The new bidding process allows for foreign companies to participate, which is a departure from the previous exclusive operations by domestic firms [14][21]. Changes in Duty-Free Contract Commission Rates - The new contracts at Shanghai Airport utilize a "fixed rent + additional commission" model, which is a high minimum guarantee combined with lower commission rates [6][40]. - If the sales volume at Shanghai Pudong Airport reaches 15 billion yuan, the comprehensive commission rate could drop to approximately 22%, aligning with previous contract levels [6][40]. Airport Fundamentals and Recovery - The airport sector is undergoing significant fixed asset investments due to historical external shocks, with a stable recovery in passenger volumes expected [7][43]. - Airports like Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Shanghai are projected to have absolute yield value amidst improving mid-term operational data [7][43].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The central economic work conference's statements regarding real estate provide important clues for understanding next year's industry policies. The policy goals continue to focus on risk prevention and market stabilization, with the potential for policy windows to open as thresholds approach. Inventory reduction may involve traditional demand support measures and tools like old renovation or storage. Supply optimization aims to enhance the quality of new residential buildings. The reform of the housing provident fund system may involve higher-level considerations beyond basic aspects like withdrawal, limits, and interest rates [2][8] - The policy goal of stabilizing the market has significantly boosted market expectations, but since April, marginal downward pressure has increased. The probability of easing industrial policies is gradually rising, and the pace of implementation is merely a timing issue. The rapid decline in industry volume and price may have passed, with structural highlights in core areas and quality properties. The current stock prices of quality real estate companies are not far from their bottom, providing room for rebound as market valuations rise. Emphasis should be placed on quality real estate firms with low inventory, good locations, and product strength, as well as stable cash flow from leading brokerage firms, commercial real estate, and state-owned property management companies [4][8] Market Performance - This week, the Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 2.55%, with an excess return of -2.47% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 29th out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the real estate index has increased by 3.87%, with an excess return of -12.55% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 27th out of 32 [5][14] - The performance of the real estate sector was poor this week, primarily driven by declines in development-related stocks, while property management and rental stocks showed mixed results [5] Policy Developments - The central economic work conference emphasized city-specific policies to control increments, reduce inventory, optimize supply, and deepen the housing provident fund system reform. It aims to stabilize the real estate market and encourage the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [6][16] - Local policies include Shenzhen's optimization of housing provident fund withdrawal regulations, allowing full withdrawals for families with one property and 60% for those with two. Shandong has introduced a housing "old-for-new" program, including three models: selling old for new, exchanging old for new, and demolishing old for new [6][16] Sales Data - This week, the sample cities' new housing transaction area saw a four-week rolling year-on-year decline of 45.6%, while second-hand housing transactions dropped by 28.6%. Year-to-date, new housing transaction area has decreased by 15.8%, while second-hand housing has increased by 4.2% [7][17] - As of December 12, the new housing transaction area in 37 cities showed a month-on-month decline of 41.7%, while second-hand housing transactions decreased by 36.3% [7][17]