丨证券研究报告丨 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 行业研究丨专题报告丨银行 [Table_Title] 如何理解央行个人信用修复政策？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 12 月 22 日央行发布一次性个人信用修复政策，为逾期记录人群提供信用修复机会。政策针对 每笔 1 万元以内的逾期金额，精准聚焦小额逾期、诚信还款的客群。对于个人而言，政策激励 目前逾期的客群尽快还款，对于历史上有逾期记录但已经结清欠款的客群，有利于未来正常新 增贷款的审批。不过，与个人破产制度不同，信用修复的核心前提是全额偿还累计欠款。对于 银行而言，可能加快逾期客户还款，改善资产质量预期，并小幅增加零售贷款投放。 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 如何理解央行个人信用修复政策？ [Table_Summary2] 央行首发信用修复政策，为逾期记录人群提供信用修复机会 12 月 22 日央行发布一次性个人信用修复政策 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - The average transaction price for Guangdong Province in 2026 is projected to be 372.14 RMB/MWh, reaching the lower limit of the medium to long-term trading price, which represents a year-on-year decrease of 19.72 RMB/MWh. If the impact of the coal power capacity price increase in 2026 is considered, the comprehensive average electricity price will remain roughly the same as in 2025 [2][13]. - The total transaction volume for Guangdong Province in 2026 is expected to reach 359.437 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.38% [6][13]. - The Southern Energy Regulatory Bureau has emphasized the prohibition of signing "yin-yang contracts" and will strictly investigate violations in medium to long-term electricity trading. This indicates a focus on maintaining market order and rational trading [2][13]. - The report suggests that if electricity prices experience irrational declines, a new round of mechanism reforms may be initiated. The publication of the long-term electricity price in Guangdong marks the beginning of a new phase in the national electricity price negotiations [13]. Summary by Sections Section: Price Trends - The long-term electricity price has reached its lower limit, indicating potential volatility in prices if not constrained. The regulatory body has issued guidelines to ensure compliance and market stability [2][13]. - The coal power capacity price is set to increase from 100 RMB/year·kW to 165 RMB/year·kW in 2026, which, combined with a decrease in coal power utilization hours, will affect the average price for coal power units, keeping it stable compared to 2025 [2][13]. Section: Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the supply-demand relationship is becoming more relaxed, with an increase in new coal power installations, which may exert downward pressure on electricity prices. The dual-track pricing system of medium to long-term and spot markets is also contributing to this dynamic [13]. - The report recommends focusing on quality coal power operators such as Huaneng International, Datang Power, and others, as well as hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and Guotou Power, and new energy firms like Longyuan Power and China Nuclear Power [13].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of mid-single to double digits in volume growth, supported by increased orders from existing customers and new customer acquisitions. The expansion in Indonesia and Bangladesh is anticipated to contribute to stable revenue growth. Profitability is expected to improve due to enhanced efficiency in new factories, with a long-term potential for net profit margin enhancement through product mix improvement and cost optimization. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are $160 million, $170 million, and $190 million, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11, 10, and 9 times. Given the high visibility of orders, profit improvement potential, stable customer mix, and high dividend yield, the current valuation is considered low, with a projected dividend yield of 6.9% in 2025 at a 75% payout ratio [3][10]. Company Overview - The company is a leading high-end footwear manufacturer, providing ODM services primarily for top global brands such as Nike, Prada, and Balenciaga. It has undergone a strategic shift towards high-end product manufacturing and optimized production capacity in Southeast Asia since 2019, resulting in significant improvements in profit margins and capital returns. In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 11.1 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.2 billion yuan, positioning it within the second tier of domestic footwear manufacturers while maintaining a favorable profit margin [6][19]. Industry Analysis - The demand side of the industry is witnessing structural opportunities, with the U.S. apparel sector nearing the end of inventory destocking. Most brands in the sports segment have healthy inventory levels, although the retail recovery trend remains unclear. The high-end segment is expected to see a performance rebound by Q3 2025, with the personal luxury goods market anticipated to return to moderate growth next year, benefiting related suppliers [6][47]. Company Quality - The company focuses on high-end manufacturing, establishing a differentiated competitive advantage while achieving superior pricing (over 200 yuan) and profitability (gross margin of 20%-25%). High R&D spending and competitive salary levels support its leading design and development capabilities, with a significant increase in high-end customer numbers. The sports segment, which is currently thriving, is expected to provide strong order certainty and profitability. The company has diversified its customer base, with Nike orders accounting for nearly 40% of total orders, ensuring stable growth [9][10][19]. Production Efficiency - The company has established a manufacturing system centered in China, with major production bases in Southeast Asia. By 2024, the production capacity distribution is expected to be 24% in China, 52% in Vietnam, and 20% in other Asian regions. The company boasts superior labor productivity, with per capita output second only to a major competitor, and is continuously enhancing automation to improve efficiency [9][10][19].

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Summary] 滔搏发布 FY2026Q3（2025 年 9 月-2025 年 11 月）零售数据，零售流水同比高单下滑，截至 2025 年 11 月 30 日，直营门店毛销售面积较上一季末减少 1.3%，较去年同期减少 13.4%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490518020002 SAC：S0490524110001 SFC：BUU942 于旭辉 柯睿 陈信志 [Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司点评丨滔搏（06110.HK） [Table_Title] 经营短期承压，修复仍需时间 报告要点 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 滔搏（06110.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 经营短期承压，修复仍需时间 事件评论 丨证券研究报告丨 2025-12-25 港股研究丨公司点评 [Table_Rank] 投资评级 买入丨维持 公司基础数据 [Table_BaseData] 当前股价（HKD） 2.98 注： ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [12] Core Insights - The home textile industry has maintained stable growth, with new opportunities arising from the emergence of big-ticket items. Mercury Home Textiles, a leading player in the industry for nearly 40 years, has built differentiated competitive advantages through continuous product upgrades, leading e-commerce channel layouts, and a focus on big-ticket items [4][8] - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.5% in revenue from 2015 to 2024, with a notable increase in gross margin from 35.3% in 2020 to 44.2% in the first three quarters of 2025 [7][22] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Mercury Home Textiles, originally established as "Longgang Jiangnan Garment Factory" in 1987, has a clear growth path, moving to Shanghai in 2000 and launching its sub-brand, Belis, in 2002. The company has focused on e-commerce since 2008 and has seen steady revenue growth [7][20] Industry Landscape - The home textile market has remained stable, with a size of approximately 300-350 billion yuan over the past five years. The market is fragmented, with the top three brands holding around 1% market share each, and Mercury Home Textiles leading the industry [8][46] Product and Channel Strategy - The company has upgraded its product structure, focusing on high-value items. The sales of comforters have become a significant part of its revenue, with the company ranking first in global comforter sales in 2023-2024. The e-commerce channel has become a major growth engine, with over 50% of revenue coming from online sales [9][32] Marketing Strategy - Mercury Home Textiles has expanded its brand influence through various marketing strategies, including celebrity endorsements and collaborations with KOLs on platforms like Xiaohongshu and Douyin. This multi-faceted approach aims to enhance brand recognition and consumer engagement [10][57]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨保险Ⅱ [Table_Title] 加强资产负债匹配，利好长期健康发展 ——保险基本面梳理 110 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 目前 A/H 股保险估值反映的仍是中长期"利差损"的担忧。在新的保险分析框架之下，结合近 两年政策、市场、监管及行业发展趋势，我们判断保险行业利差有望在中长期持续提升。结合 近期负债端强势增长以及"存款搬家"逻辑，利差企稳到扩张的过程有望加速，估值有望加速 修复。持续看好保险板块，个股推荐新华保险、中国平安、中国人寿、中国人保。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 吴一凡 谢宇尘 SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490521020001 SFC：BUV596 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 加强资产负债匹配，利好长期健康发展 2] ——保险基本面梳理 110 [Table_Summary2] 新规发布的背景是什么：环境、政策、会计准则的变化 %% %% %% %% 内外的变化带来了资产负债管理的新要求。2025 年 12 月 19 日，金管 ...

行业研究丨点评报告丨纺织品、服装与奢侈品 [Table_Title] 望远镜系列 32 之 Nike FY2026Q2 经营跟踪： 收入指引偏弱，库存去化符合预期 报告要点 [Table_Summary] FY2026Q2（2025/9/1-2025/11/31）Nike 实现营收 124.3 亿美元，收入表现略超预期（彭博一 致预期 122.4 亿美元），固定汇率下同比持平（原指引低单下滑），美元计价下同比+1%。毛利 率同比-3pct 至 40.6%，主要受北美关税提升及大中华区老旧库存问题影响。SG&A 费用率同 比+0.1pct 及有效税率同比+2.8pct，拖累净利润同比-32%至 7.9 亿元，净利率同比-3pct 至 6.4%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 丨证券研究报告丨 SAC：S0490518020002 SAC：S0490524110001 SFC：BUU942 于旭辉 柯睿 陈信志 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 纺织品、服装与奢侈品 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 望远镜系列2]32 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in fixed asset investment (FAI) in 2025, with infrastructure investment becoming a drag on the economy, prompting the economic work conference to emphasize "investment stabilization" [2][9] - Looking ahead to 2026, the report suggests that "active fiscal policies" will drive investment stabilization, with a focus on structural opportunities in the construction sector, including western infrastructure, overseas engineering, and new infrastructure [2][9] Group 1: Economic Overview - In 2025, FAI experienced a comprehensive decline, with infrastructure investment significantly dropping, particularly in the third quarter, where narrow infrastructure investment turned negative, declining by 8.7% in October [23][28] - The report notes that the actual situation of infrastructure investment may have deteriorated earlier than expected in 2024, despite apparent growth in infrastructure investment [30][34] Group 2: Structural Opportunities - The report emphasizes the importance of structural opportunities in the construction sector, particularly in western infrastructure projects, overseas engineering, and new infrastructure driven by technological advancements [45][46] - Specific recommendations include focusing on high-dividend leading companies in western regions, such as Sichuan Road and Bridge, and exploring opportunities in Xinjiang and Tibet [9][10] Group 3: Overseas Engineering - The report indicates that overseas engineering demand remains strong, driven by favorable client structures and business models of central enterprises, as well as private enterprises expanding into international markets [10][11] - Key recommendations for overseas engineering include companies like China National Materials, Jianghe Group, and Jinggong Steel Structure, which are expected to perform well in terms of earnings and dividends [10][11] Group 4: New Infrastructure - The report identifies several sectors within new infrastructure that are expected to see growth, including clean rooms, commercial aerospace, nuclear power, and low-altitude economy, driven by technological advancements and safety demands [10][11] - Specific companies recommended in these sectors include Yaxiang Integration for clean rooms and China Nuclear Engineering for nuclear power projects [10][11] Group 5: Traditional Demand - The report notes that traditional demand, particularly in real estate, remains under pressure, with new and second-hand housing demand still facing challenges [11] - It highlights the potential turning point for companies like Honglu Steel Structure, which may benefit from improved cyclical sentiment and operational efficiency [11] Group 6: Reform and Restructuring - The report discusses the need for deep reforms in the construction sector to enhance global competitiveness, focusing on identifying quality assets and new business opportunities for central enterprises [12][12] - It also emphasizes the importance of market value management and the potential for mergers and acquisitions in the construction industry [12][12]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes three main investment themes in the building materials industry: the stock chain, the Africa chain, and the AI chain. The stock chain focuses on optimizing demand and clearing supply varieties, with a significant shift in consumer demand expected as renovation needs rise to nearly 70% by 2030 [4][7][26] - The Africa chain highlights the undervalued potential of leading companies in the African market, benefiting from population growth and urbanization, with a projected threefold market expansion for cement [9][10] - The AI chain anticipates an upgrade in the special electronic cloth industry, driven by the transition from Low-Dk to higher-grade products, indicating substantial domestic replacement opportunities due to supply shortages [10][10] Group 2 - The stock chain indicates that the renovation demand is currently around 50% and is expected to reach nearly 70% by 2030, which will drive the industry back to historical demand levels [7][26][28] - The report notes that the supply of consumer building materials is expected to exit significantly, with production levels for various materials projected to be at 90% to 62% of their peak by 2024 [7][37] - The report identifies companies like Huaxin Cement and West Cement as key players in the African market, which is expected to see high demand due to ongoing urbanization and infrastructure development [9][10] Group 3 - The report suggests that the renovation market could reach 20 billion square meters annually, driven by a shorter renovation cycle and an increase in the aging housing stock [28][31] - The report highlights that leading companies in the consumer building materials sector are expected to show revenue and profit resilience, with some companies already demonstrating growth despite industry downturns [8][41] - The report indicates that the waterproof and coating sectors are under significant pressure, with the waterproof materials market expected to see a notable decline in production by 2024 [45][58]

Core Insights - The steel industry is expected to recover in 2025 after three years of decline, driven by improvements in cost and supply sides [4][7][16] - The majority of profits in the black industrial chain are captured by iron ore, with profit shares of 72% for iron ore, 6% for coking coal, and 22% for steel [4][7] - The West Manganese project is seen as a potential solution to redirect profits back to the domestic steel industry [4][7] Profitability - In Q4 2025, prices for rebar, hot-rolled, iron ore, and coking coal decreased by 7.1%, 6.0%, 1.0%, and 12.5% year-on-year, respectively, with coking coal showing a significant price drop [7][18] - The decline in coking coal prices has alleviated cost pressures for steel companies, leading to a rebound in profitability [18][21] - The overall profit for the steel industry is expected to improve as demand stabilizes and costs decrease [7][21] Supply - The actual crude steel production in 2025 is expected to remain flat year-on-year, despite improved profitability encouraging production [20][21] - The supply side has not yet contracted as expected, with administrative production limits still pending implementation [16][20] - The discrepancy in production statistics indicates that crude steel output may be underestimated due to reporting practices [21][23] Demand - Steel inventory has been successfully reduced to low levels, indicating a stabilization in apparent consumption [26][27] - The demand structure shows a decline in rebar consumption by 5.4%, while hot-rolled and cold-rolled products saw increases of 1.2% and 1.5%, respectively [30][31] - Strong external demand, particularly in machinery and equipment exports, is expected to support steel demand [31][40] Outlook for 2026 - Steel demand is anticipated to remain stable, supported by infrastructure and manufacturing investments as outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [42][46] - The decline in new housing starts is expected to moderate, reducing the negative impact on steel demand from the real estate sector [46][48] - Global monetary and fiscal policies are expected to become more accommodative, further supporting steel demand through improved economic conditions [48][49] Policy and Regulation - The introduction of export license management for certain steel products aims to curb low-end exports and improve market stability [51][52] - The focus on "graded management" policies is expected to lead to a reduction in outdated production capacity, benefiting compliant and high-quality steel producers [52]