丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨山西汾酒（600809.SH） [Table_Title] 山西汾酒 2025 年三季报点评：收入稳健增长， 凸显经营韧性 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 山西汾酒发布 2025年三季报：公司 2025年前三季度营业总收入 329.24亿元，同比增长 5.00%； 归母净利润 114.05 亿元，同比增长 0.48%，扣非净利润 114.11 亿元，同比增长 0.53%。公司 2025Q3 营业总收入 89.60 亿元，同比增长 4.05%；归母净利润 28.99 亿元，同比下滑 1.38%， 扣非净利润 28.95 亿元，同比下滑 1.61%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com [Table_Title 山西汾酒 2025 2] 年三季报点评：收入稳健增长， 凸显经营韧性 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 山西汾酒发布 2025 年三季报：公司 2025 年前三季度营业总收入 329.24 亿元，同比增长 5.0 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨洋河股份（002304.SZ） [Table_Title] 洋河股份 2025 年三季报点评：主动纾压，静待 改善 [Table_Author] 董思远 徐爽 朱梦兰 石智坤 SAC：S0490517070016 SAC：S0490520030001 SAC：S0490522050003 SAC：S0490522090002 SFC：BQK487 SFC：BVF934 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 洋河股份发布 2025 年三季报：公司 2025 年前三季度实现营业收入 180.90 亿元，同比下降 34.26%；归属于上市公司股东净利润 39.75 亿元，同比下降 53.66%。2025 年单三季度实现营 业收入 32.95 亿元，同比下降 29.01%；归属于上市公司股东净利润-3.69 亿元，同比下降 158.38%。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% [Table_scodeMsg2] 洋河股份（002304.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 洋河股份 2025 2] ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The report indicates that the upward trend in thermal coal prices is expected to continue due to supply constraints from the November central safety production assessments and improving demand as winter approaches, with prices likely to exceed expectations [5][6] - For coking coal, despite short-term demand pressure from the off-season, the current low inventory and tight supply suggest significant price recovery potential if pro-cyclical policies are reintroduced globally [5][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of recognizing the bottom reversal opportunities in the coal sector, supported by low price-to-book ratios and low holdings [6] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - As of November 14, the market price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port is 834 RMB/ton, a week-on-week increase of 17 RMB/ton. The report anticipates continued price increases due to tight supply and low port inventories, alongside seasonal demand improvements [5][13] - The report notes that the inventory at the northern three ports is 12.58 million tons, down 12% year-on-year, while power plant inventories are 130 million tons, down 1.5% year-on-year, with usable days at 25.9 days, up 1.2 days year-on-year [6][14] Coking Coal - The price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port remains stable at 1860 RMB/ton as of November 14. The report highlights that while steel mill demand is currently weak, the supply situation for coking coal is tight, indicating potential for price elasticity [5][6] - The report also mentions that the average daily pig iron production at sample steel mills is 2.3688 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [15] Valuation and Market Dynamics - The report suggests that the current price-to-book ratios for coking coal and major thermal coal companies are at the lower third percentile since 2016, indicating undervaluation compared to other cyclical resource sectors [6] - The report recommends a mixed strategy for investment, highlighting companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and China Shenhua Energy as stable leaders, while also suggesting more aggressive plays in companies like Lu'an Environmental Energy and Jinneng Holding Group [6][27]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 11.428 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.39%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 757 million yuan, up 12.14% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the revenue reached 4.101 billion yuan, a 13.12% increase year-on-year, and the net profit was 278 million yuan, reflecting a 16.79% year-on-year growth [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's gross margin was 20.5%, a slight increase of 0.44 percentage points from Q2 and a year-on-year increase of 0.63 percentage points. The net profit margin for Q3 was 7.70%, with a 0.12 percentage point increase from Q2 and a 0.48 percentage point increase year-on-year. The overall expense ratio was well-controlled at 10.30%, down 0.30 percentage points year-on-year [12]. Market Expansion - The company has been expanding its overseas market, with a 78.89% year-on-year growth in overseas sales in H1 2025. It achieved a breakthrough in large air separation equipment sales in Africa and has established subsidiaries in Southeast Asia to enhance service and support for equipment exports [12]. Future Outlook - The company expects continued growth in equipment sales, particularly in the coal chemical sector, and anticipates that retail gas prices will stabilize, contributing positively to performance. The average price of liquid oxygen in October was 412 yuan per ton, up 7.74% year-on-year, indicating a trend of price recovery [12]. The company is also leveraging its technology in the nuclear fusion industry, having joined the Anhui Province Fusion Industry Association [12]. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.055 billion yuan, 1.250 billion yuan, and 1.476 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, corresponding to price-earnings ratios of 26, 22, and 19 times [12].

行业研究丨专题报告丨纺织品、服装与奢侈品 [Table_Title] 把握库存周期切换和 NIKE 修复共振β，看好运 动制造板块投资机会 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 若后续 Nike 销售及库存情况如预期般在今年年底迎来拐点，则在新品开发+老品补库下，上游 制造公司订单将迎来弹性修复；此外，今年头部制造在关税扰动+投产爬坡影响下利润率实现 低基数，多数公司存净利率修复缺口，明年盈利同样望现拐点。在此，我们推荐 Nike 产业链相 关纺织制造标的：华利集团、申洲国际、晶苑国际、裕元集团、伟星股份，以及零售标的滔搏。 分析师及联系人 丨证券研究报告丨 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 纺织品、服装与奢侈品 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Author] 于旭辉 魏杏梓 SAC：S0490518020002 SAC：S0490524020003 SFC：BUU942 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 [Table_Title 把握库存周期切换和 2] NIKE 修复共振β，看好运 动制造板块投资机会 [Table_Summary2] 前言：β的波动——制造的库存周期 ...

行业研究丨专题报告丨农产品 [Table_Title] 生猪养殖专题系列 134：猪价下行与政策限产共 振，重视产能去化投资机会 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 10 月以来商品猪与仔猪价格同步进入亏损区间，行业正式开启亏损去产能，且不论从能繁母猪 还是仔猪等前瞻指标看，直至 2026 年上半年供应压力仍持续。在行业负债率和流动比率等指 标相比上一轮周期改善有限的背景下，行业产能去化或进一步加速。与此同时，行业产能调控 政策或持续对头部企业产能进行限制，与亏损去产能形成合力，或使本轮产能去化较 2021、 2023 年更彻底。2025Q3 畜禽板块基金重仓比例降至 0.98%，处于历史低位，重点推荐低成 本以及现金流具有优势的养殖企业，推荐组合：【牧原股份、温氏股份、德康农牧、神农集团】。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Title 生猪养殖专题系列 2] 134：猪价下行与政策限产共 振，重视产能去化投资机会 [Table_Summary2] 10 月以来商品猪与仔猪价格同步进入亏损区间，行业正式开启亏损去产能，且不论从能繁母 猪还是仔猪等前瞻指标看， ...

[Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司深度丨申洲国际（02313.HK） [Table_Title] "织"道系列 7——申洲国际深度：格局增势， 或跃在渊 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司凭借成熟的纵向一体化布局构建壁垒，海外产能+专用工厂+大单快反实现优秀的生产效率 与头部客户的深度绑定，并以领先的面料研发能力强化客户粘性，稀缺制造能力不变，我们判 断当前估值处于低位，未来将有望逐步修复。展望未来：收入端，产品多元化下竞争力强化， Adidas、优衣库等老客份额提升下贡献收入弹性，今年有望实现双位数增长，伴随 Nike 修复与 行业景气度回升增速有望提升。利润端，H2 伴随劳动力成本、所得税率基数平稳，H2 利润有 望环比提速，明年 Nike 修复有望驱动更优的盈利弹性。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于旭辉 魏杏梓 SAC：S0490518020002 SAC：S0490524020003 SFC：BUU942 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 35 %% %% %% %% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][2]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.19 billion, 2.45 billion, and 2.68 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth of 2%, 12%, and 10% respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 14, 13, and 11 times. Under the assumption of a 90% dividend payout ratio, the dividend yield for 2025 is estimated to reach 6.4% [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 15.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.86 billion yuan, down 2.4% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.82 billion yuan, up 3.9% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue reached 4.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, with a net profit of 280 million yuan, up 3.9% year-on-year [4][2]. Business Segment Analysis - The main brand showed steady growth, with Q3 revenue increasing by 3% to 2.46 billion yuan. The direct sales channel is expected to achieve positive same-store growth, although online channel revenue decreased by 20% year-on-year. The gross margin for the main brand in Q3 improved by 3.1 percentage points, attributed to channel structure optimization and reduced promotional activities [10][4]. - Group purchasing benefited from an improved competitive landscape and customer expansion, with Q3 revenue rising by 43% to 540 million yuan. However, the gross margin for this segment decreased by 9.3 percentage points year-on-year due to price reductions aimed at increasing orders and the lower margin associated with the new workwear segment [10][4]. - Other brands experienced a revenue increase of 7% to 910 million yuan in Q3, indicating stable growth [10][4].

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market experienced an overall adjustment, with the Hang Seng Technology Index leading the decline, down 2.82% to 5812.8 [2][5] - The total market turnover reached HKD 232.79 billion, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to HKD 12.887 billion [5] - Concerns over global semiconductor demand recovery were heightened due to disappointing earnings from a Japanese storage giant, negatively impacting the hard technology sector [5] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.85% to 26572.46, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 2.09% to 9397.96 [2] - In the A-share market, the Shanghai Composite Index declined by 0.97%, and the CSI 300 Index fell by 1.57% [2] - Among the sectors, Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (+1.03%) and Computer (+0.03%) were the top gainers, while Retail (-3.88%) and Non-ferrous Metals (-3.56%) were the biggest losers [2] Sector Analysis - The hard technology sector, including semiconductors and hardware, faced downward pressure due to concerns about the recovery of storage chip demand following poor earnings reports [5] - Conversely, the daily consumer retail sector saw a rise driven by strong earnings reports from major weighted stocks, boosting investor confidence [5] Future Outlook - Potential growth areas for the Hong Kong stock market include AI technology and new consumption trends, which are expected to drive market increases [5] - Continuous inflow of southbound funds is anticipated to enhance marginal pricing power in the Hong Kong market [5] - The transition from loose monetary policy to loose credit in China, along with potential further interest rate cuts in the U.S., could support the Hong Kong market's upward trajectory [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The launch of the first and second batches of science - innovation bond ETFs in 2025 marks the entry of the science - innovation bond market into a new stage, which has evolved from the exploration of "dual - innovation bonds" to the mature stage with the construction of the "technology board" in the bond market [7][17][93]. - Science - innovation bonds have significant differences from "dual - innovation bonds" in terms of issuer scope, issuance venues, and fund usage. As of September 30, 2025, the outstanding amount of science - innovation bonds is 2.8286 trillion yuan, dominated by science - innovation corporate bonds, with industrial entities having a high proportion in all three types of bonds [8][25][93]. - In the primary market, the issuance scale of science - innovation bonds has increased from 500 million yuan in 2020 to over 125 billion yuan as of September 30, 2025. The issuance period has first shortened and then lengthened, and the interest rate has generally declined with fluctuations. The issuance of urban investment bonds is concentrated in provinces such as Jiangsu and Shandong, and industrial entities are dominated by central and local state - owned enterprises [9][93]. - In the secondary market, science - innovation bonds have higher liquidity scores than non - science - innovation bonds. High - rated, medium - short - term, and publicly - issued varieties have better liquidity. The excess spread is generally lower than that of non - science - innovation bonds of the same issuer, the trading deviation is smaller, and the proportion of TKN trading volume is higher than that of credit bonds [10][72][93]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Development Context - The development of science - innovation bonds has gone through three stages: the institutional exploration period of "dual - innovation bonds" from 2015 - 2017, the rapid growth period of forming a "stock exchange + inter - bank market" dual - market pattern in 2022, and the mature stage with the launch of the "technology board" in the bond market and policy upgrades in 2025 [7][17][93]. 3.2 Fundamental Core - **Differences from "dual - innovation bonds"**: "Dual - innovation bonds" are limited to innovation and entrepreneurship and venture capital companies, issued only on the exchange with a 3 - 5 - year term, and used for early - stage equity investment. Science - innovation bonds cover a wider range of issuers, including science - innovation enterprises and financial institutions, are issued in both markets with flexible terms, and have clear requirements for the proportion of funds invested in the science - innovation field [8][25]. - **Issuance Specifications**: Exchange - listed science - innovation enterprise - type bonds need to meet R & D investment or patent requirements, and inter - bank market entity - type bonds need to have a science - innovation title. There are also rich credit enhancement methods, such as the central - local cooperation credit enhancement model and credit risk mitigation vouchers (CRMW) [8]. 3.3 Primary Market - **Issuance Scale**: From 2020 to 2025, the issuance scale of science - innovation bonds has increased from 500 million yuan to over 1.25 trillion yuan as of September 30, 2025, showing a leap - forward growth [9][49]. - **Subject Structure**: The issuance of urban investment entities is concentrated in regions such as Jiangsu, Shandong, Anhui, Sichuan, and Chongqing. Industrial entities are mainly state - owned enterprises, with local state - owned enterprises issuing over 54 billion yuan and central state - owned enterprises over 44 billion yuan as of September 30, 2025, while the scale of private enterprises is significantly lower [9][55]. - **Term and Interest Rate**: The term has generally changed from short to long, rising from 2.46 years in 2023 to 3.45 years as of September 30, 2025. The interest rate has fluctuated downward, dropping to 2.14% as of September 30, 2025, indicating an increase in market recognition [9]. 3.4 Secondary Market - **Liquidity Advantage**: As of September 30, 2025, the liquidity scores of science - innovation bonds are higher than those of non - science - innovation bonds. Among them, high - implied - rated, publicly - issued, and medium - short - term remaining - maturity science - innovation bonds have better liquidity [10][72]. - **Trading Characteristics**: The yield of science - innovation bonds is generally lower, and the proportion of TKN trading volume is higher than that of credit bonds. Under the influence of the issuance of the first batch of science - innovation bond ETFs in July 2025, the proportion of TKN in science - innovation bonds reached 77.64% in June, confirming market activity and recognition [10][88].