丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨环保 [Table_Title] 解决拖欠企业账款成专项债新用途，2025 年置 换隐债 2 万亿元额度已落地 87% 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 地方政府新增专项债发行使用进度快于往年，且清欠成专项债新用途，湖南/云南/广西明确部分 新增债务资金用于解决地方政府拖欠企业账款。截至 2025/6/21，2025 年置换隐债 2 万亿元额 度已落地 87%。环保若干子行业 G 端政府欠款较重，本轮"化债+清欠"有望受益，2025 年衔 接更积极的财政政策，预期对 To G 类企业形成实质性利好，形成价值与弹性两个投资逻辑。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 徐科 任楠 贾少波 李博文 盛意 SAC：S0490517090001 SAC：S0490518070001 SAC：S0490520070003 SAC：S0490524080004 SFC：BUV415 SFC：BUZ393 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 解决拖欠企业账款成专项债新用途， 2] 2025 年置 换 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 战略数据研究丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 保险买了多少银行？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 今年保险举牌延续了去年的火热势头，且从板块及行业特征上看，举牌港股及银行的数量甚于 往期。截止到 2025 年 6 月 20 日，2025 年保险举牌次数合计 19 次，涉及到 16 家公司，其中 举牌港股 13 次；行业分布上看，今年举牌 19 次中 9 次举牌银行股，其中 7 次举牌港股银行。 依据上市公司 2025 年一季报前十大股东披露数据（扣除关联方持股），进入上市公司前十大持 有人的保险机构统计，截止到一季度末银行参考持有市值为 2657.8 亿元。选取恒生金融指数 中权重靠前的 7 只银行股，按照机构类型来看 7 只银行标的的保险机构在相关标的上持仓参考 市值超 5600 亿元。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈洁敏 SAC：S0490518120005 SFC：BUT348 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 保险买了多少银行？ [Table_Summary2 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 新增专项债即将放量 ——政府债周报（6/22） 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 6 月 23 日-6 月 29 日地方债披露发行 5856.5 亿元。其中新增债 4583.2 亿元（新增一般债 515.2 亿元，新增专项债 4068.0 亿元），再融资债 1273.2 亿元（再融资一般债 586.8 亿元，再融资 专项债 686.4 亿元）。 6 月 16 日-6 月 22 日地方债共发行 2617.5 亿元。其中新增债 697.2 亿元（新增一般债 272.5 亿元，新增专项债 424.8 亿元），再融资债 1920.3 亿元（再融资一般债 630.5 亿元，再融资专 项债 1289.8 亿元）。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 新增专项债即将放量 2] ——政府债 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report From June 16 - 20, 2025, the central bank conducted a net injection of funds through 7 - day reverse repurchase, with 182 billion yuan of MLF maturing. The overall liquidity remained relatively loose, with DR001 operating below 1.40%. From June 16 - 22, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds increased, the yields of most maturing inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) declined, and the leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market increased. From June 23 - 29, 2025, the expected net payment of government bonds is 749.8 billion yuan, and the maturing scale of NCDs is about 1137.8 billion yuan. Despite factors such as the end - of - month period, large net payment of government bonds, and quarter - end bank assessment pressure, the central bank's attitude of caring for liquidity is clear, and the cross - quarter liquidity is expected to remain relatively stable [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Funds - **Central Bank's Fund Operation**: From June 16 - 20, 2025, the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations of 960.3 billion yuan and repurchased 858.2 billion yuan, with a net injection of 102.1 billion yuan. The maturing scale of MLF was 182 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 79.9 billion yuan in the full - scale operation. From June 23 - 27, 2025, 960.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the open market and 10 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits will mature [6]. - **Liquidity Situation**: From June 16 - 20, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.38% and 1.44% respectively, down 0.3 basis points and up 0.8 basis points compared with June 9 - 13, 2025. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.52% and 1.58% respectively, up 0.5 basis points and 1.5 basis points compared with June 9 - 13, 2025 [6]. - **Net Payment of Government Bonds**: From June 16 - 22, 2025, the net payment of government bonds was about 474.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 467.8 billion yuan compared with June 9 - 15, 2025. Among them, the net payment of treasury bonds was about 306.7 billion yuan, and that of local government bonds was about 167.5 billion yuan. From June 23 - 29, 2025, the expected net payment of government bonds is about 749.8 billion yuan, including about 291 billion yuan for treasury bonds and about 458.8 billion yuan for local government bonds [7]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - **Yield Changes**: As of June 20, 2025, the yields of 1 - month and 3 - month NCDs were 1.6250% and 1.6023% respectively, down 1 basis point and 3 basis points compared with June 13, 2025. The yield of 1 - year NCDs was 1.6392%, down 3 basis points compared with June 13, 2025 [8]. - **Maturity Scale and Net Financing**: From June 16 - 22, 2025, the net financing of NCDs was about 8.07 billion yuan, compared with a net financing of about - 16.29 billion yuan from June 9 - 15, 2025. From June 23 - 29, 2025, the expected maturity repayment of NCDs is 1137.8 billion yuan, continuing the scale of over one trillion yuan [8]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio in the Inter - bank Bond Market**: From June 16 - 20, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market was 108.25%, compared with 107.83% from June 9 - 13, 2025. On June 20 and June 13, 2025, the calculated leverage ratios in the inter - bank bond market were about 108.44% and 107.92% respectively [9].

量化金融研究丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 广发中证智选高股息策略 ETF（159207）：聚焦 高息资产，把握低风险下高确定性 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 中证智选高股息策略指数选取 50 只连续分红且现金分红预案股息率较高的上市公司证券作为 指数样本，以反映股息率较高上市公司证券的整体表现。该指数由中证指数公司发布，指数代 码：932305.CSI，指数简称：智选高股息。智选高股息指数在全区间的年化收益率达到 13.37% （2005 年 12 月 31 日至 2025 年 6 月 11 日），超越中证 500（10.63%）、沪深 300（7.92%） 等宽基指数以及中证红利指数（10.09%）等高股息策略指数。广发中证智选高股息策略 ETF （159207）采用指数化投资策略，紧密跟踪标的指数，追求跟踪偏离度和跟踪误差最小化。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490524080006 SAC：S0490513030001 邓元哲 覃川桃 SFC：BUT353 [Table ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [13] Core Viewpoints - Although the prices of the three major pesticides are still fluctuating at the bottom, with continuous optimization of supply and steady growth in terminal demand, some small varieties may see a turning point first. It is recommended to pay attention to pesticide companies like Yangnong Chemical, which is a domestic leader, with its Huludao Phase I project expected to be fully operational by Q3 2025 [2][11][63] Summary by Sections Overall Market Conditions - The overall pesticide raw material prices have been fluctuating at the bottom since July 2023, with significant inventory reduction observed. As of June 13, 2025, the raw material price index reported 74.2 points, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0% and a month-on-month increase of 1.9% [18][20] Supply and Demand Improvements - The supply situation is improving, and some small varieties may see a turning point. For example, the price of Bacillus amyloliquefaciens has steadily increased to 30,000 yuan/ton by June 15, 2025, a year-on-year increase of 68.6% [24][25] - The price of Acetochlor has risen from 84,000 yuan/ton in April to 145,000 yuan/ton by June 15, 2025, due to supply disruptions [29][33] - The price of Chlorpyrifos has increased due to rising raw material costs, with the price of its upstream raw material, Trichloroacetyl chloride, rising from 6,800 yuan/ton to 8,200 yuan/ton [39][42] Specific Product Insights - The demand for Abamectin and Methomyl is steadily increasing, with a significant number of registration certificates in China. The production capacity is concentrated among a few companies, with China being the largest producer and exporter globally [48][51] - The supply of Chlorantraniliprole has been affected by an explosion at a chemical plant, leading to a price increase from 225,000 yuan/ton to 305,000 yuan/ton by June 15, 2025 [56][59] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on pesticide companies with prices at the bottom and potential for upward movement, particularly Yangnong Chemical, which is expected to benefit from the upcoming production ramp-up [11][63]

丨证券研究报告丨 战略数据研究丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 金融板块涨幅居前，低估值领涨风格——W114 市场观察 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 当周基金重仓 50 相对占优；市场动速方面，风格轮动速度显著下滑；行业板块方面，金融板块 涨幅居前，金融红利相对行业基准有小幅超额；风格方面，超大盘、低估值占优，PB-ROE 表 现不俗；主题方面，REITs 系列、数字货币涨幅靠前。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈洁敏 SAC：S0490518120005 SFC：BUT348 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 金融板块涨幅居前，低估值领涨风格—— 2] W114 市场观察 战略数据研究丨专题报告 [Table_Summary2] 机构赚钱效应：基金重仓 50 相对占优 市场动速：风格轮动速度显著下滑 行业板块：金融板块涨幅居前，金融红利相对行业基准有小幅超额 风格跟踪：超大盘、低估值占优，PB-ROE 表现不俗 主题热点：REITs 系列、数字货 ...

报告要点 2025 [Table_Summary] 年 5 月，钢材出口数量 1058 万吨，同比+11.5%，环比+1.1%；出口均价 698 美元/吨，同比 -8.5%，环比+0.5%。5 月出口数据在两个维度超过市场预期，一是出口量延续增长，对比前期随 着越南、韩国等主要出口国的反倾销关税落地，和中美贸易冲突加剧下，市场普遍预期今年钢材出 口量或出现同比两位数的下滑；二是出口均价超预期，前 5 月出口均价下滑 10.1%，对比年初至 今，国内钢材价格指数同比下滑 13.2%。尽管当前外贸压力加剧，但出口端仍对钢铁总需求形成较 强的支撑，出口的韧性由何而来？如何展望后续的出口？ 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 赵超 易轰 吕士诚 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490520080012 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨钢铁 [Table_Title] 钢材出口的韧性由何而来？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUY139 SFC： ...

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨鼎捷数智（300378.SZ） [Table_Title] 数智未来峰会亮点频出，AI 全面赋能业务创新 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 6 月 19 日，公司以"AI 创变、破界生长"为主题，于武汉举办第四届数智未来峰会。会上创新 发布多款 AI 相关套件，并设立多个 AI 专题论坛共话 AI 落地现状与未来，标志公司 AI 赋能业 务融合与场景创新进展积极。公司坚定拥抱 AI 战略初显成效，商业化进展积极看好 2025 放 量。预计公司 2025-2027 年实现归母净利润 1.96 亿元、2.38 亿元、2.87 亿元，对应增速为 26%、22%、21%，对应 PE 为 44.4x、36.5x、30.2x，持续推荐。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520030004 SFC：BUX668 宗建树 宋浪 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 鼎捷数智（300378.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 数智未来峰会亮点频出，AI 全面赋能业务创 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [11] Core Insights - The pulp molding industry is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 7.4% from 2024 to 2030, driven by global trends towards banning plastics and environmental sustainability [6][20] - The market is highly concentrated in China, which accounted for 40% of global production capacity in 2022, with the Asia-Pacific region being the largest market [7][20] - Leading companies in the industry benefit from technological advancements and cost optimization, achieving gross margins that are over 10 percentage points higher than their peers [8][30] Summary by Sections Market Demand - The pulp molding sector aligns with global "plastic ban" policies, making it a key alternative to traditional plastics [6][19] - The Asia-Pacific region is projected to hold a 41% share of the global pulp molding market by 2024, with the U.S. being a major importer [20] Supply Dynamics - Global pulp molding capacity was 4.42 million tons in 2022, with China contributing 40% of this capacity [7][28] - The U.S. is set to import 250,000 tons of molded pulp products in 2024, with 59% of imports coming from China [20][28] Competitive Landscape - The industry is characterized by a high concentration of leading firms, with the top five companies in the Chinese pulp molding food service sector holding approximately 50% market share [28] - Major players like Zhongxin Co., Shaoneng Co., and Jinseng Environmental have reported revenues of 1.5 billion, 800 million, 500 million, and 100 million CNY respectively from pulp molding products [8][30] Technological and Cost Advantages - The core competitive advantage in the pulp molding industry lies in technology-driven cost control and efficiency improvements [8][30] - Companies can reduce raw material costs by sourcing semi-finished wet pulp and utilizing biomass boiler technology for energy savings [8][39] - The use of intelligent production lines enhances production efficiency, reduces labor intervention, and optimizes production rhythms, leading to improved capacity utilization and return on equity (ROE) [8][44] Financial Metrics - The gross margin for leading firms is significantly higher than that of their competitors, with an average ROE of 23% for top companies [8][30][44]