Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance released the 2026 national subsidy policy details on December 30, 2025, adjusting passenger car subsidies from fixed amounts to a percentage of the vehicle price, optimizing subsidy standards [2][5] - The current automotive sector has shifted from being solely influenced by domestic demand to being driven by overseas markets, high-end products, and smart technologies, with a focus on identifying alpha opportunities centered around AI [2][8] Summary by Sections Subsidy Policy Changes - The subsidy for purchasing new energy passenger vehicles is 12% of the vehicle price (up to 20,000 yuan), and for 2.0-liter and below fuel passenger vehicles, it is 10% (up to 15,000 yuan). For trade-ins, the subsidy is 8% for new energy vehicles (up to 15,000 yuan) and 6% for fuel vehicles (up to 13,000 yuan) [5][6] Inventory and Demand Outlook - Observations indicate that the end of 2025 saw an increase in channel inventory, with manufacturers beginning to clear stock in late November. If retail sales exceed expectations in January, inventory may reach a bottom sooner, alleviating pressure [6] Market Structure and Beneficiaries - The mid-to-high-end passenger vehicle segment is expected to benefit more from the new subsidy structure, which may help ease industry competition and push price bands upward [7] Strategic Focus on Intelligence - The core strategy remains to leverage the smart technology trend, with an emphasis on AI-related sectors such as robotics, liquid cooling, and intelligent driving. The automotive sector is now influenced by a combination of factors rather than just domestic demand [8]

报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2026 年 1 月 1 日，数字人民币正式从"数字现金时代"迈入"数字存款货币"时代。据数字人 民币运营管理中心微信公众号 1 月 2 日消息，数字人民币 App 也焕新升级，迎来 2.0.0 版本。 随着数字人民币 App2.0 上线，或标准着我国数字人民币进入"计量、管理、运行、生态"全 链条标准化运营的新阶段，有望带动我国数字人民币全产业链发展。建议关注数字人民币全产 业链，重点关注：1）数字人民币跨境结算系统方案供应商；2）跨境支付方案供应商；3）具备 数字人民币支付场景的方案供应商；4）支付终端供应商。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 陈耀文 SAC：S0490520030004 SAC：S0490525070002 SFC：BUX668 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 数字人民币 App2.0 版本上线，数字人民币正式 迈入数字存款货币时代 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_T ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and is maintained [7] Core Insights - In 2025, China's space launches reached a record high with a total of 92 launches, significantly up from 68 in 2024, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the commercial space industry [2][4] - The acceleration in launches is attributed to advancements in technology and funding solutions, suggesting that the commercial space sector is poised for rapid development [2][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring key suppliers within the commercial space industry, particularly leading companies, satellite assembly firms, and core component suppliers [2][4] Summary by Sections Launch Statistics - In 2025, China completed 92 space launches, with 90 successful and 2 failures, marking a substantial increase from the previous year's 68 launches [4] - The second half of 2025 saw a notable increase in launch activity, with 57 launches compared to 35 in the first half [4] Future Projections - The report anticipates that the number of launches in 2026 will continue to rise, potentially exceeding 100 launches, driven by new rocket technologies and the establishment of the Commercial Space Administration [4] Role of Private Enterprises - Private space companies are expected to play a more significant role in 2026, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange introducing new listing rules to support commercial rocket enterprises [4] - The IPO of Blue Arrow Aerospace aims to raise 7.5 billion yuan, with a portion allocated for enhancing reusable rocket capabilities [4] Global Context - The global space launch market also saw an increase, with total launches surpassing 300 for the first time, indicating a competitive landscape [4] - The U.S. accounted for approximately 60% of global launches, highlighting the international dynamics of the space race [4]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨运输 [Table_Title] 委内瑞拉地缘波动托底油运，人民币升值交运几 何？——交运周专题 2026W1 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 1 月 3 日美国对委内瑞拉实施大规模打击，其原油出口已暂时"停摆"。短期看，委内瑞拉出口 受阻或导致中国和美国重油供应吃紧而寻找其他替代，中东、拉美国家的重质原油进口，合规 油运需求增加。长期看，有可能带来原油贸易格局的再一次重塑。 25 年底美联储降息落地，人民币兑美元进入加速升值通道，我们将受益板块划分为三大梯队： 1）美元负债型体量大，获益汇兑收益；2）人民币购买力提升，推动国人出境旅游及消费，显 著提振国际航线收入；3）航油等美元计价成本下降，企业采购成本降低，盈利显著改善。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 韩轶超 赵超 鲁斯嘉 张银晗 胡俊文 SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490520020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S0490520080027 SAC：S0490524120001 SFC：BQK468 SFC：BWN875 请阅读最后评级说明和重 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 %% %% 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] PMI 超预期，债市震荡偏弱——12 月 PMI 点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 12 月，制造业和非制造业 PMI 重新站上荣枯线。12 月以来高炉/焦化/PTA 开工率、钢 铁产量等高频指标走弱，但制造业景气度逆势改善，究其原因，新动能对制造业逐渐形成支撑， 但其相关行业后续可能更容易受到外需波动的影响，未来新旧动能是否能够顺利转换是观测经 济基本面复苏节奏的重要窗口。PMI 数据公布当日债市收益率一度明显走高，我们预计长端利 率宽幅震荡，预计 10 年期国债收益率在 1.8%-1.9%区间震荡，30 年国债收益率在 2.2%-2.4% 之间震荡。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马玮健 SAC：S0490524080003 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 ⚫ 非制造业景气度重回荣枯线以上，符合季节性走势，其中建筑业为主要拉动，服务业景气 水平也小幅回升。从分项看，非制造业回升或源于内需：新订单、存货与从业人员指数分 别回升 1.6pct、0.4pct、0. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the heavy-duty truck sector [7]. Core Insights - The 2026 vehicle replacement policy will support the replacement of old trucks with low-emission vehicles, prioritizing electric trucks, while maintaining the subsidy levels from 2025 [2][5]. - The heavy-duty truck sector is expected to benefit from continued domestic demand support and growth in exports, with a projected total sales volume of 1.06 million trucks in 2026, including 700,000 units from domestic demand [11]. - The report highlights the low valuation and high dividend yield of the heavy-duty truck sector, suggesting a favorable risk-reward profile for investors, with specific recommendations for Weichai Power and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group [11]. Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The 2026 policy will continue to support the replacement of old trucks, with subsidies for scrapping old vehicles ranging from 12,000 to 45,000 yuan per vehicle, and new purchases of National VI diesel and electric trucks receiving subsidies of 40,000 to 65,000 yuan and 70,000 to 95,000 yuan respectively [11]. - The expected replacement rate of 20% for old vehicles could lead to an increase of 94,000 to 96,000 heavy-duty truck sales in 2026 [11]. Market Trends - The report notes a significant trend towards higher battery capacities in new electric trucks, with 126 models exceeding 600 kWh, indicating a shift towards longer-distance applications [11]. - The penetration rate of new energy heavy-duty trucks is projected to reach 30% in 2026, supported by differentiated subsidy policies [11]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for profitability recovery in the heavy-duty truck sector due to prior investments in new energy by domestic companies, alongside favorable market conditions [11]. - The overall low valuation and high dividend yield of the sector provide a good safety margin for investors, making it an attractive investment opportunity [11].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 久违的煤价反弹力度如何？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 久违的煤价反弹力度如何？我们认为本次反弹核心驱动在于供给年末收缩与需求边际改善的 共振，叠加政策托底预期强化。尽管高库存环境、元旦后煤矿逐步复产、终端采购谨慎心态或 仍共同制约煤价反弹力度，然而价格下行有底得以体现，叠加岁末年初险资有望增配煤炭板块， 当前时点建议继续重视煤炭红利配置机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 煤炭与消费用燃料 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 久违的煤价反弹力度如何？ [Table_Summary2] 最新跟踪：动力煤止跌反弹，焦煤暂稳运行 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [10] Core Insights - In November, the national trading volume of green certificates reached 132.12 million, a year-on-year increase of 143%, marking a historical high for monthly trading scale. From January to November, the trading of green certificates accounted for 41.81% of the issued tradable scale, an increase of 27.65 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024, indicating a continuous alleviation of the oversupply issue in green certificates [2][12] - The average trading price of green certificates in November was 4.96 yuan per certificate, showing a month-on-month increase of 10.80%. The improvement in both supply and demand sides is expected to provide long-term support for green certificate prices, further catalyzing the recovery of the utility sector's attributes and growth narrative [2][12] - The report highlights a significant increase in new installed capacity for thermal power, with a historical high of 77.52 million kilowatts added from January to November, representing a year-on-year growth of 63.41%. This expansion is expected to enhance the power system's regulation capacity and alleviate the pressure on renewable energy consumption and electricity prices [2][12] Summary by Sections Green Certificate Trading - The trading volume of green certificates in November reached 132.12 million, a 143% increase year-on-year, with the trading scale hitting a historical high. The trading of green certificates from January to November totaled 728 million, a 119% increase year-on-year. The proportion of traded green certificates to the issued tradable scale reached 41.81%, up 27.65 percentage points from 2024 [2][12] - The average trading price for green certificates in November was 4.96 yuan per certificate, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10.80%. The price stability is supported by the synchronized improvement in supply and demand, with expectations of rational expansion in supply due to policy changes [2][12] Installed Capacity - From January to November, the total new installed capacity was 44.557 million kilowatts, with November alone contributing 4.773 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 27.86%. Wind and solar power installations saw significant growth, with wind power increasing by 59.42% and solar power by 33.25% year-on-year [2][12] - The report emphasizes that the substantial expansion of thermal power capacity will significantly enhance the power system's ability to accommodate fluctuating renewable energy outputs, thereby stabilizing electricity prices [2][12] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality thermal power operators such as Huaneng International, Datang Power, Guodian Power, and Huadian International, as well as hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation. It also highlights opportunities in the renewable energy sector, suggesting companies like Longyuan Power and New天绿色能源 [2][12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [7] Core Insights - Geopolitical fluctuations are driving safe-haven demand, with a focus on upcoming economic data and adjustments to the Bloomberg Commodity Index. Short-term gold and silver may experience wide fluctuations, but it is recommended to increase equity allocation during corrections. The recent increase in metal futures margin requirements by the CME has led to significant price volatility in gold and silver, with short-term forced liquidation sentiment easing. The outlook for Q1 2026 suggests that the inflation and liquidity resonance window remains unchanged, with silver leading the continued upward trend in precious metals [3][4][5] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions are creating a demand for safe-haven assets, while upcoming economic data and the Bloomberg Commodity Index adjustments are being monitored. Short-term fluctuations in gold and silver prices are expected, but equity allocation should be increased during corrections. The recent margin hikes by the CME have caused significant price volatility, and the forced liquidation sentiment has eased. The inflation and liquidity resonance window is expected to remain unchanged through Q1 2026, with silver leading the upward trend in precious metals [3][4] Industrial Metals - The overall performance of industrial metals remains strong, driven by increased expectations of interest rate cuts and copper accumulation in the U.S. Recent data shows a week-on-week increase in copper inventory by 5.73% and a year-on-year increase of 86.11%. Aluminum inventory also saw a week-on-week increase of 2.93% and a year-on-year increase of 1.96%. The core logic for the strength in copper and aluminum prices is linked to interest rate cut expectations and U.S. copper accumulation [4][5] Energy and Minor Metals - Lithium is expected to see a supply inflection point and a new demand cycle. The price of lithium carbonate futures has surpassed 120,000 yuan/ton, reaching a new high. The recovery in rare earth demand is anticipated to initiate a new upward trend, with significant improvements in the performance of rare earth companies. Tungsten prices are also on the rise, with a long-term bullish outlook. The cobalt market is expected to face shortages from 2025 to 2027, with prices likely to rise due to supply constraints [5][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the issuance of government bonds, specifically local government bonds, including actual and forecasted issuance, special bond issuance progress, and related statistics [2][6][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Issuance Forecast and Review - 12/29 - 01/04: Local government bonds are forecasted to issue 260.0 billion yuan, including 145.0 billion yuan in new bonds (0.0 billion in new general bonds and 145.0 billion in new special bonds) and 115.0 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (85.0 billion in refinancing general bonds and 30.0 billion in refinancing special bonds) [2][6]. - 12/22 - 12/28: Local government bonds actually issued 20.4 billion yuan, all of which were new bonds (0.0 billion in new general bonds and 20.4 billion in new special bonds), with 0.0 billion yuan in refinancing bonds [2][7]. 2. Special Bond Issuance Progress - As of 12/28, the fifth - batch second - round special refinancing bonds totaled 20,000.00 billion yuan, the sixth - round totaled 2,996.00 billion yuan, and 115.00 billion yuan will be newly disclosed next week. The top three regions in the fifth - batch second - round are Jiangsu (2,511.00 billion yuan), Hunan (1,288.00 billion yuan), and Henan (1,227.00 billion yuan) [8]. - As of 12/28, the 2025 special new special bonds totaled 13,668.08 billion yuan, and 0.00 billion yuan since 2023. The top three regions in 2025 are Jiangsu (1,289.00 billion yuan), Guangdong (1,239.28 billion yuan), and Henan (759.60 billion yuan) [8]. 3. Local Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - **Actual vs. Pre - issuance Disclosure**: Compares the actual issuance of local bonds with pre - issuance disclosures [14]. - **Planned vs. Actual Issuance Comparison**: Compares the planned and actual issuance of local bonds in different months and regions, including new bonds, new general bonds, new special bonds, and refinancing bonds [16][23]. 4. Local Bond Net Supply - 12/22 - 12/28: Local bond net supply was - 32 billion yuan; 12/29 - 01/04: Forecasted net supply is 174 billion yuan [18]. 5. New Bond Issuance Progress - As of 12/28, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 95.81%, and that of new special bonds was 100% [28]. 6. Refinancing Bond Net Supply - As of 12/28, the cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities is shown in the relevant chart, with the statistical scope including issued and disclosed but unissued bonds [30][31]. 7. Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of 12/28, the statistics of special refinancing bonds in different rounds and regions are presented, with detailed statistical scope and round definitions [33][34][35]. - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of 12/28, the statistics of special new special bonds in different years and regions are provided, including 2023, 2024, and 2025, with the statistical scope including issued and disclosed but unissued bonds [36][37][38]. 8. Local Bond Investment and Trading - **One - two - level Spread**: Presents the one - level and two - level spreads of local bonds and the spread by region [40][41][42]. - **New Special Bond Investment Direction**: Shows the investment direction of new special bonds, with the latest month's statistics only considering issued new bonds [43].