Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the new tobacco industry [9]. Core Insights - The National Tobacco Monopoly Administration has issued a notice to implement electronic cigarette industry policies, aiming to regulate industry operations, curb excessive competition, prevent overcapacity risks, and enhance compliance among electronic cigarette manufacturers [2][6]. - The notice emphasizes the need for investment behavior regulation among electronic cigarette manufacturers, including requirements for new projects, technological renovations, relocations, and resuming construction [7]. - Key changes and impacts include: 1. Support for the exit of outdated and excess production capacity, benefiting large-scale electronic cigarette enterprises. As of January 2025, there are approximately 583 licensed electronic cigarette manufacturers in China, and the notice aims to facilitate the exit of inefficient capacity, allowing leading companies to consolidate and enhance their market position [7]. 2. Implementation of capacity quota management and increased compliance requirements for exports. The notice specifies that production capacity must be regulated, and companies focusing on exports must ensure that their products comply with the laws and regulations of the destination countries or regions [7]. 3. Separation of management for heated tobacco products and electronic cigarettes, indicating potential future changes in the new tobacco industry [7]. Summary by Sections - **Investment Opportunities**: The acceleration of globalization in the new tobacco sector presents investment opportunities for companies with core barriers or resource advantages. Key companies to watch include Smoore International (leading in electronic vaporization devices), China Tobacco Hong Kong (supporting China Tobacco's international mission), Hengfeng Paper (an undervalued player in the heated tobacco industry), and others involved in heated tobacco solutions or manufacturing [8]. - **Market Dynamics**: The notice aims to balance supply and demand in the electronic cigarette market, clarifying production scale requirements and adjustments, while also addressing the need to prevent overcapacity risks [12].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on undervalued, high-dividend banks, particularly large city commercial banks and state-owned banks [2][19]. Core Insights - The banking sector experienced a decline of 0.9% this week, with negative excess returns influenced by a rebound in market risk appetite, leading to continued outflows of active funds from the sector [2][9]. - The People's Bank of China released a financial stability report indicating a decrease in the number of high-risk rated financial institutions, with the number of red zone (high-risk) institutions dropping from 357 to 312 [6][40]. - The report highlights that the asset scale of red zone banks accounts for only 2.1% of the total, indicating overall stability in the banking sector [6][40]. - The report emphasizes that major banks maintain stable capital levels under various GDP slowdown scenarios, with capital adequacy ratios remaining above regulatory requirements [7][43]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The banking index has shown a cumulative decline of 0.9%, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices by 2.8% and 4.8% respectively [9][19]. - Active funds have been flowing out of the banking sector, with net outflows of approximately 1 billion yuan over the past week [21]. Financial Stability Report Highlights - The financial stability report indicates a reduction in the number of participating financial institutions due to mergers and restructuring, with a total of 3529 institutions evaluated in 2025, down from 3936 in 2023 [6][40]. - The report notes that the distribution of ratings for village and town banks has decreased to the 3-D level, reflecting some tail risks in the industry [6][40]. Capital Stability Under Stress Tests - Stress tests for 23 major banks indicate that under light, moderate, and severe scenarios, the capital adequacy ratio could decrease by 5.81, 6.43, and 7.33 percentage points respectively, but remains compliant with regulatory standards [7][43][44]. - The report highlights that systemically important banks can maintain a capital adequacy ratio above 12% even under the most severe stress scenarios [50]. Convertible Bond Opportunities - The report identifies potential strong redemption opportunities in convertible bonds of banks, particularly for banks like Changshu Bank, Shanghai Bank, and Chongqing Bank, which are approaching their strong redemption prices [8][31]. Dividend Yield Analysis - As of December 26, the average dividend yield for the six major state-owned banks' A-shares has decreased to 3.96%, while the H-shares yield stands at 5.24%, with a discount rate of 24% compared to A-shares [25][29].

Report Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: December 29, 2025 [3] - Researcher: Wang Guodong [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Supply side: Last week, carbonate lithium production increased by 40 tons to 24,105 tons, and November production increased by 3% to 103,740 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has not resumed production, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices for the re - review of mining rights transfers, affecting supply. In November 2025, China imported 729,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 11.9% month - on - month increase. The top three importing countries were Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria. In November, carbonate lithium imports were 22,055 tons, a 7.6% month - on - month decrease. The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, and some manufacturers using外购 lithium ore to produce carbonate lithium faced cost inversion [5]. - Demand side: Overall production scheduling in December decreased month - on - month, while large battery cell manufacturers' production scheduling in November increased by 2% month - on - month. In November, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 176.3 GWh, a 3.3% month - on - month and 49.2% year - on - year increase. The total export of power and other batteries was 32.2 GWh, a 14.1% month - on - month and 46.5% year - on - year increase. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 179.4 GWh, an 8.1% month - on - month and 52.2% year - on - year increase. The trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax are expected to support the rapid growth of China's new energy vehicle market sales [6]. - Inventory: This week, carbonate lithium inventory showed a destocking state. Factory inventory decreased by 775 tons, market inventory decreased by 2,614 tons, and futures inventory increased by 2,350 tons [6]. - Strategy: From the supply side, the Ningde Jianxiawo mine remains shut down, and Yichun plans to cancel 27 mining licenses (all expired, with no impact on actual supply). In November, domestic carbonate lithium production increased by 3% month - on - month, and lithium concentrate imports were 729,000 tons, a 11.9% month - on - month increase. The total import of carbonate lithium in November was about 22,000 tons, a 7.6% month - on - month decrease but a 15% year - on - year increase. Downstream demand is strong, and the destocking trend continues. It is expected that subsequent South American lithium salt imports will supplement the supply. From the demand side, the terminal demand for energy storage remains good, but production scheduling in January is expected to decline slightly. In November, cathode production scheduling increased by 2% month - on - month. The risk of Yichun's mining licenses persists. With profit recovery, lithium extraction from ore continues to increase production, and the cost center shifts upward. The expectation of the Ningde Jianxiawo mine's resumption within the year has failed. After cathode material manufacturers jointly cut production, downstream production scheduling is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to the disturbances at the Yichun mining end. As downstream purchases of carbonate lithium slow down the destocking rate and traders' inventory accumulates, prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. Key Data Tracking Production - related Data - Carbonate lithium weekly production: Last week, production increased by 40 tons to 24,105 tons, and November production increased by 3% to 103,740 tons [5] - Carbonate lithium production by raw material in November 2024: Salt lake accounted for 19.56%, lithium mica 23.05%, and lithium spodumene 45.37% [25][26] Import - related Data - In November 2025, China imported 729,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 11.9% month - on - month increase. Imports from Australia increased by 44% month - on - month, from Zimbabwe were 110,000 tons (a 28% month - on - month decrease), and from Nigeria were 92,000 tons (a 16% month - on - month decrease). In November, carbonate lithium imports were 22,055 tons, a 7.6% month - on - month decrease, with 10,800 tons from Chile, accounting for 49% [5] Battery - related Data - In November, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 176.3 GWh, a 3.3% month - on - month and 49.2% year - on - year increase. The total export was 32.2 GWh, a 14.1% month - on - month and 46.5% year - on - year increase. The sales volume was 179.4 GWh, an 8.1% month - on - month and 52.2% year - on - year increase [6] Inventory - related Data - This week, carbonate lithium factory inventory decreased by 775 tons, market inventory decreased by 2,614 tons, and futures inventory increased by 2,350 tons [6]

股指关注阻力位，债市或 震荡运行 2025-12-29 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F03102085 投资咨询号：Z0021210 金融期货策略建议 目 录 01 重点数据跟踪 02 01 金融期货策略建议 01 股指策略建议 01 国债策略建议 资料来源：iFinD、长江期货 p 国债走势回顾：30年期主力合约涨0.36%报112.960元，10年期主力合约涨0.10%报108.300元，5年期 主力合约涨0.05%报106.050元，2年期主力合约涨0.03%报102.548元。 p 核心观点：当前债市缺乏显著的利好或利空因素，走势主要由机构行为主导。考虑到前几个交易日多数交易 盘已陆续平仓，年末最后几个交易日若无突发情况，市场或将维持平淡态势。预计本周及元旦后，市场焦点 预计将集中于央行国债买卖规模会否进一步扩大，以及年初货币政策的具体实施节奏。短期来看，若长短端 收益率均陷入横盘整理，需警惕收益率再度向上试探11月以来区间上沿的可能。 p 技术分析：MACD指标显示T主力合约或震荡偏强运行。 p 策略展 ...

长江期货鲜果月报 01 12月鲜果价格走势 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 01 走势回顾：12月鲜果价格走势 02 宏观分析：消费缓慢好转 03 苹果展望：高位震荡 04 红枣展望：逐步探底 目 录 01 走势回顾：12月鲜果价格走势 2025-12-29 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 止跌企稳 数据来源：博易大师、IFIND、长江期货 Ø 12月份苹果期货整体偏强震荡运行，主力合约9000支撑较强。 Ø 12月份红枣价格逐步寻底，9000附近震荡运行。 02 宏观分析：消费缓慢好转 02 下游消费稳健 02 水果价格震荡上行 数据来源：IFIND、上海钢联、中果网、长江期货 Ø 社零总额：根据国家统计局2025年12月15日发布的最新数据：11月当月：社会消费品零售总额为43898亿元，同比增长1.3%（环 比下降0.42%）；1-11月累计：社会消费品零售总额为456067亿元，同比增长4.0%，增速较2024年同期加快0.5个百分点，且快 于2024年全年增速（3.5%）。 Ø 按消费类型分，尽管11月商 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Title] 降费措施助推市场交投活跃度，看好板块估值向 上弹性 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本周非银板块整体表现较强。券商方面，本周沪深交易所推出 2026 年降费措施，市场交投环 比有所提升并维持历史高位，预计 2025 年业绩维持高增趋势，建议关注板块后续配置价值； 保险方面，中长期来看三季报以来印证了存款搬家、增配权益和新单成本改善逻辑，中长期 ROE 改善确定性进一步提升，估值有望加速修复，结合中长期拐点向上的判断，我们认为整体配置 性价比正逐步提高，板块重估进行时。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SFC：BUV596 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 吴一凡 谢宇尘 程泽宇 SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490521020001 SAC：S0490524090001 %% %% 1）本周非银板块整体表现较强。券商方面，本周沪深交易所推出 2026 年降费措施，市场交投 环比有所提升并维持历史高位，预计 2025 年业绩维持高增趋势，建议关注板块后续配置价值； 保险方面，中长期来看三 ...

一月行情展望 长江证券研究所金融工程研究小组 2025-12-28 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 research.95579.com 2 当月强势股回顾 12月涨幅榜前20的个股中仅有2只起涨时自由流通市值在百亿上下，强势题材主要集中在商业航天，连板标 的需提防下周的月末效应 分析师 覃川桃 SAC执业证书编号：S0490513030001 SFC执业证书编号：BUT353 分析师及联系人 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • %% %% %% %% 图：12月涨幅榜Top20（截至12月26日） | 属性 | 名称 | 最低到最高涨幅 | | 前最低价（元） | 起涨时自由流通市值（亿） 起涨时成交额（千万） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商业航天 | 天力复合 | 251 . | 62% | 26 79 . | 37 4 20 7 . . | | 并购重组 | 胜通能源 | 211 . | 62% | 13 51 . | 6 09 16 93 . . | | 商业航天 | 西部材料 | 170 . | 65% | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Insights - The annual electricity price expectations are gradually becoming clearer, with multiple factors constraining electricity price levels. The average transaction price for Guangdong's annual electricity trading in 2026 has reached the lower limit of the medium to long-term trading price, indicating a downward price expectation [2][6] - Despite the clear downward expectation for electricity prices, the thermal power sector has shown relative stability, outperforming the hydroelectric sector, which is less impacted by price fluctuations [2][6] - The recent decline in coal prices and the expected increase in capacity prices for 2026 are expected to provide a buffer against the downward trend in long-term contract prices, supporting market expectations for thermal power company profitability [2][6] Summary by Sections Electricity Price Expectations - The electricity supply and demand situation is at risk of deterioration, and there are non-seasonal risks associated with coal prices. The market's expectation for the 2026 annual electricity price has been negatively impacted by weak monthly and spot electricity prices in some provinces [2][7] - The average monthly prices for Guangdong and Jiangsu this year were 373 and 377 cents/kWh, respectively, down by 47 and 52 cents/kWh year-on-year. The announcement of the annual trading results has confirmed the market's previous pessimistic expectations [2][6] Thermal Power Sector Performance - The thermal power sector has shown resilience despite the downward price expectations, driven by two main factors: a significant "inverted V" trend in coal prices since October and the expected stepwise increase in capacity prices for 2026 [2][6] - The price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal peaked at 834 yuan/ton in late November but has since dropped to 672 yuan/ton by December 26, a decrease of 162 yuan/ton [2][6] - The expected increase in capacity prices by approximately 65 yuan/year·kW across provinces is anticipated to enhance the profitability stability of thermal power companies [2][6] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Huaneng International, Datang Power, Guodian Power, Huadian International, China Power, China Resources Power, and Funiu Co., as well as Inner Mongolia Huadian, which represents "coal-electricity integration" thermal power [2][12][13] - For the hydroelectric sector, recommended companies include Yangtze Power, Guotou Power, Chuan Investment Energy, and Huaneng Hydropower [2][12][14] - In the renewable energy sector, companies such as Longyuan Power H, Xintian Green Energy H, China Nuclear Power, and Zhongmin Energy are recommended due to their potential for growth [2][12][15]

联合研究丨行业点评 [Table_Title] 氢能周度观察（5）：氢气管道输送进展如何？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 %% %% research.95579.com 2 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 氢能储运技术路线多样，但大规模、低成本、安全高效的输送体系尚未成熟，管道输送为其中 具备发展潜力方式之一。2025 年纯氢管道输送领域的国家标准陆续出台、也有多个长距离、高 投资、大规模的项目通过安全性审查或步入实际开工建设阶段；天然气管网掺氢也处于示范运 营期。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 徐科 司鸿历 贾少波 SAC：S0490517090001 SAC：S0490520080002 SAC：S0490520070003 SFC：BUV415 SFC：BVD284 李博文 盛意 SAC：S0490524080004 SAC：S0490525070006 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 6 %% %% [Table_Title2] 氢能周度观察（5）：氢气管道输送进展如何？ [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 资金平稳，杠杆提升 ——流动性和机构行为周度观察 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 12 月 22 日-12 月 26 日，央行短期逆回购小幅净回笼资金。2025 年 12 月 22 日-12 月 28 日，政府债净缴款规模较前一周显著增加，同业存单到期收益率整体横盘表现，银行间债券 市场杠杆率均值提升。2025 年 12 月 29 日-2026 年 1 月 4 日，政府债预计净缴款 138 亿元， 同业存单到期规模约为 2949 亿元。2025 年 12 月 26 日，测算中长期、短期利率风格纯债基久 期中位数周度环比分别提升 0.10 年、提升 0.20 年。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马月 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490525080001 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 资金平稳，杠杆提升 2] ——流动性和机构行为周度观察 [Table_Summary ...