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电子行业2026年度投资策略:从云端到端云共振
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-30 01:58
%% %% %% %% research.95579.com 行业研究丨深度报告丨电子设备、仪器和元件 [Table_Title] 从云端到端云共振——电子行业 2026年度投资 策略 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 回顾过去十年电子板块行情,在当年能够形成成本通胀的环节投资收益率居前,或因创新升规, 或因供需错配,以此来对抗成本通缩。展望 2026 年,仍应当从 AI 的变化中寻找电子最强景气。 当前 AGI 的发展正在从 AI 推理升级为 AI 代理,AI 眼镜、AI 手机、桌面机器人等智能终端将 有望成为最先爆发的场景。因此,我们判断端与云将形成共振,云端看好通胀最剧烈的 PCB 和 存储,包括正交背板、颗粒原厂、存储设备;端侧看好 AI 眼镜放量,可对标 2019 年 TWS 耳 机爆发,以及 AI、折叠屏、机器人等新品创新下的供应链机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 杨洋 谢尔曼 王泽罡 SAC:S0490517070012 SAC:S0490518070003 SAC:S0490521120001 SFC:BUW100 钟智铧 蔡少东 张梦杰 SA ...
2025深圳脑博会召开,关注脑机接口产业进展:2025年第52周计算机行业周报-20251230
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-30 01:43
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [7] Core Insights - The computer sector has shown a continuous rebound, with an overall increase of 2.13%, ranking 14th among primary industries in the Yangtze River region, and accounting for 5.77% of the total market turnover [2][4][13] - The report highlights significant advancements in the brain-computer interface (BCI) industry, particularly with the upcoming Shenzhen Brain Expo, which is expected to accelerate the commercialization of BCI technologies [6][49] - The report suggests focusing on three main lines of investment: 1) domestic mapping of invasive BCI technologies from advanced overseas industries; 2) product deployment of non-invasive BCIs in consumer scenarios; 3) downstream applications related to BCIs [6][62] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The computer sector's performance last week was characterized by a strong market rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 3900 points, closing at 3963.68 points, reflecting an overall increase of 1.88% [4][13] - The computer sector's turnover accounted for 5.77% of the total market, with notable activity in commercial aerospace and space computing-related stocks [2][4] Key Developments - The report emphasizes the recent achievements in quantum error correction by the University of Science and Technology of China, marking a significant milestone for future large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computing [10][22] - The successful launch of the Long March 12 rocket and the support from the Shanghai Stock Exchange for commercial rocket enterprises are highlighted as pivotal developments in the commercial aerospace sector [30][40] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies the BCI industry as a key area for investment, particularly in light of supportive policies and the potential for rapid commercialization [6][62] - The upcoming Shenzhen Brain Expo is expected to showcase advancements and foster investment opportunities in the BCI sector [49][62] - The report also notes the acceleration of IPO processes for commercial aerospace companies, which could enhance capital flow into the industry [40][48]
收入表现超预期,全年指引略上调:望远镜系列31之Lululemon FY2025Q3经营跟踪
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-29 23:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - In FY2025Q3, the company achieved revenue of $2.57 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, exceeding market expectations (Bloomberg consensus forecast of $2.48 billion) [2][6] - Gross margin decreased by 2.9 percentage points to 55.6%, primarily impacted by rising tariffs, increased discounts, and foreign exchange losses [2][6] - Operating profit margin fell by 3.5 percentage points to 17.0%, while net profit decreased by 13% to $310 million, with a net profit margin of 12.0%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [2][6] Revenue Breakdown - By region, FY2025Q3 revenue for the U.S./North America/Greater China was $1.38 billion/-2% /$1.73 billion/-3% /$510 million/+42%, with Greater China benefiting from e-commerce growth and offline store expansion, while North America faced pressure due to weak store traffic, declining average transaction value, and lower conversion rates [7] - By channel, FY2025Q3 revenue from direct sales/e-commerce was $1.21 billion/+$0.107 billion/+13%, with direct sales growth slowing sequentially, while e-commerce maintained strong growth [7] - By category, FY2025Q3 revenue for women's/men's/other products was $1.64 billion/+6% /$600 million/+8% /$320 million/+12%, showing steady performance across categories [7] Inventory and Guidance - As of FY2025Q3, the company's inventory increased by 11% year-on-year to $2 billion, with expectations for unit inventory growth in FY2026Q4 and dollar inventory growth in double digits year-on-year [12] - The company slightly raised its full-year guidance, expecting FY2025 revenue of $10.962 to $11.047 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4% (previous guidance was $10.85 to $11 billion, a 2% to 4% increase) [12]
我国达成量子纠错关键里程碑,关注量子计算产业进展
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-29 15:04
行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 我国达成量子纠错关键里程碑,关注量子计算产 业进展 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近日,中国科学技术大学团队基于超导量子处理器"祖冲之 3.2 号"在码距为 7 的表面码上实 现了低于纠错阈值的量子纠错,使得我国达到了"低于阈值,越纠越对"的关键里程碑。我国 基于超导量子处理器"祖冲之 3.2 号"在量子纠错领域实现突破,为构建实用的大规模量子计 算机铺平了道路,我国量子计算有望进入快速发展阶段,从而重塑现有的计算体系,进而带动 包含稀释制冷机、量子芯片,整机制造、量子计算软件以及下游应用的产业上下游共同发展, 打开未来巨大产业空间。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 陈耀文 SAC:S0490520030004 SAC:S0490525070002 SFC:BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Title 我国达成量子纠错关键里程碑,关注量子计算 2] 产业进展 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 近日,中国科学技术大学团队基于超导量子处理器"祖冲之 3.2 号"在码距为 ...
工信部标准化技术委员会成立,人形机器人产业迎来新里程碑
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-29 15:03
丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 工信部标准化技术委员会成立,人形机器人产业 迎来新里程碑 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 12 月 26 日,工业和信息化部人形机器人与具身智能标准化技术委员会成立会议在京 召开。当前时点,我国机器人产业正进入快速发展阶段,此次标委会的成立,或将加速我国人 形机器人产业的标准化进程,进而有望加速其商业化落地进程。建议关注机器人全产业链,重 点关注 1)机器人"大脑"供应商;2)机器人操作系统等软件相关厂商。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 陈耀文 SAC:S0490520030004 SAC:S0490525070002 SFC:BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 工信部标准化技术委员会成立,人形机器人产 2] 业迎来新里程碑 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2025 年 12 月 26 日,工业和信息化部人形机器人与具身智能标准化技术委员会(以下简称"标 委会")成立会议在京召开。工业和信息化 ...
阿里 AI 跟踪:入口侧高频落子,完善全栈 AI 的最后一块拼图
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-29 15:02
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and maintained [6]. Core Insights - Alibaba is a rare domestic player with a full-stack AI layout, recently launching several core C-end AI native products, including Qianwen APP, Lingguang APP, and Ant Aifu, aiming to complete the last piece of the full-stack AI puzzle [2][4]. - The comprehensive push by Alibaba in the C-end is not merely about traffic entry but is crucial for occupying communication channels and platforms with users in the AI era, deeply binding user habits [2][9]. Summary by Sections Recent Product Launches - Qianwen APP was launched on November 17, marking Alibaba's entry into the consumer AI market, featuring high-quality dialogue based on large models, task execution capabilities, and multi-modal functions. As of December 10, it surpassed 30 million monthly active users within 23 days of public testing, becoming the fastest-growing AI application globally [9]. - Lingguang APP was released on November 18, achieving over 1 million downloads within 4 days, surpassing other notable products. Its unique feature allows users to generate applications with a single description, leading to over 3.3 million flash applications created within two weeks [9]. - Ant Aifu, upgraded from the AI health application AQ on December 15, focuses on health companionship, leveraging a solid user base of 800 million medical insurance code users and a vast network of medical resources, including over 30,000 real doctors [9].
2025深圳脑博会召开,关注脑机接口产业进展
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-29 14:34
丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 2025 深圳脑博会召开,关注脑机接口产业进展 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 12 月 28 日至 30 日,第五届脑科学前沿与产业大会暨 2025 深圳脑机接口博览会在深 圳光明天安云谷召开。当前,我国脑机接口产业成果频出。政策扶持下,脑机接口产业有望迎 来发展机遇期,并加速由产业研究向商业化转化,进而加速脑机接口大规模商业化落地进度。 建议关注三条主线:1、侵入式脑机接口海外先进产业链的国内映射标的;2、非侵入式脑机接 口在消费场景的产品落地相关标的;3、脑机接口下游应用端相关标的。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 陈耀文 SAC:S0490520030004 SAC:S0490525070002 SFC:BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 2025 深圳脑博会召开,关注脑机接口产业进展 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2025 年 ...
上交所发布专项指引,商业航天 IPO 有望提速
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-29 14:33
丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Author] 宗建树 陈耀文 SAC:S0490520030004 SAC:S0490525070002 SFC:BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 上交所发布专项指引,商业航天 IPO 有望提速 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 12 月 26 日,上海证券交易所正式发布《上海证券交易所发行上市审核规则适用指引第 9 号— —商业火箭企业适用科创板第五套上市标准》,支持正处于大规模商业化关键时期的商业火箭 企业,适用第五套上市标准登陆科创板。此次《指引》的发布或将是我国商业航天产业加速资 本化的重要标志,头部商业航天企业有望迎来密集 IPO,进而通过资本运作助力产业发展。建 议关注产业链各环节的核心供应商,重点关注卫星应用相关标的。 分析师及联系人 事件评论 research.95579.com 风险提示 1、卫星互联网组网不及预期; 1 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 上交所发布专项指引,商业航天 IPO 有望提速 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 %% ...
大消费行业 2026 年 1 月金股推荐
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-29 14:31
联合研究丨组合推荐 [Table_Title] 大消费行业 2026 年 1 月金股推荐 %% %% %% %% 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 11 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 长江大消费九大优势行业(农业、零售、社服、汽车、纺服、轻工、食品、家电、医药)2026 年 1 月重点推荐金股。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈佳 李锦 赵刚 SAC:S0490513080003 SAC:S0490514080004 SAC:S0490517020001 SFC:BQT624 SFC:BUV258 SFC:BUX176 高伊楠 于旭辉 蔡方羿 SAC:S0490517060001 SAC:S0490518020002 SAC:S0490516060001 SFC:BUW101 SFC:BUU942 SFC:BUV463 董思远 陈亮 彭英骐 SAC:S0490517070016 SAC:S0490517070017 SAC:S0490524030005 SFC:BQK487 SFC:BUW408 ...
长征十二号甲首飞入轨成功,我国持续探索可回收火箭技术
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-29 14:29
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Viewpoints - The successful launch of the Long March 12甲 rocket marks a significant step in China's exploration of reusable rocket technology, despite the failure to recover the first stage. This event lays a solid foundation for future reusable launches, which are expected to significantly reduce launch costs and accelerate the development of China's commercial space industry [10][11] - The report emphasizes that short-term setbacks are a necessary part of industry development, and as technology advances, the cost of rocket launches is likely to decrease, thereby promoting the growth of the commercial space sector. It is recommended to pay attention to key suppliers across the industry chain, particularly those related to satellite applications [10][11] Summary by Sections Event Description - On December 23, at 10:00 AM, the Long March 12甲 rocket was launched from the Dongfeng Commercial Space Innovation Test Area, successfully placing its second stage into the designated orbit, although the first stage was not successfully recovered. The flight test was deemed a basic success [5][10] Event Commentary - The Long March 12甲 rocket, designed for "first-stage reuse," is approximately 70.4 meters long and weighs about 437 tons. Although the first stage recovery was not achieved, valuable data was collected for future launches. The report highlights that reusable technology will greatly enhance rocket capacity and reduce average launch costs, supporting the acceleration of satellite constellation deployment [10][11] - The report notes that both state-owned and commercial space sectors are progressing together, with various companies working on reusable rockets across different payload capacities and technologies, which will complement China's aerospace industry [10][11]