丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scode 公司研究丨点评报告丨宏盛华源（ Msg1] 601096.SH） [Table_Title] 毛利率同比继续改善，盈利增速环比下降 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 年三季报。公司 2025 前三季度营业收入 73.4 亿元，同比-3.1%；归母净利润 2.8 亿元，同比+58.5%；扣非净利润 2.7 亿元，同比+88.9%。单季度看，公司 2025Q3 营业收 入 24.4 亿元，同比-0.1%，环比-6.7%；归母净利润 0.8 亿元，同比+9.3%，环比-22.8%；扣非 净利润 0.8 亿元，同比+16.1%，环比-21.5%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 邬博华 曹海花 司鸿历 袁澎 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490522030001 SAC：S0490520080002 SAC：S0490524010001 SFC：BQK482 SFC：BVD284 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司发布 2025 年三季报。公司 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -330 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 278.6% [2][4]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 decreased by 5.6 percentage points to 1.8%, primarily due to weak macro demand and adjustments in product structure, leading to a decline in revenue [2][4]. - The company is positioned as a leading direct-operated express delivery service provider, and despite short-term operational disruptions, the long-term value of the network is expected to remain intact, with hopes for improved operational performance in the future [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 30.27 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.0%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -280 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 153.5% [4]. - In Q3 2025, the revenue breakdown showed express delivery and other business revenues decreased by 18.9% and increased by 9.4%, respectively, indicating a shift in product focus [6]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was significantly impacted, dropping to 7.4% due to increased labor costs and other operational expenses, with labor costs rising by 9.6% year-on-year [6]. - Management expenses increased by 22.3% to 320 million yuan, reflecting higher investments in backend support resources following strategic adjustments [6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to recover its profitability with projected net profits of -70 million yuan, 510 million yuan, and 760 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6]. - The anticipated price-to-earnings ratios for 2026 and 2027 are 30.0x and 20.1x, respectively, indicating a potential for growth as operational adjustments take effect [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 59.9 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decline of 6.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.1 billion yuan, down 9.8% year-on-year. The decline in revenue was influenced by the cancellation of U.S. small package tariff policies, which led to a decrease in cross-border e-commerce cargo volume [2][4]. - Despite the revenue decline, the company's gross profit margin improved by 1.6 percentage points to 21.6% in Q3, indicating stable profitability. The company has been actively introducing cargo aircraft and optimizing operational routes, which contributed to this improvement [2][8]. - The report highlights that the company has passed stress tests, demonstrating resilience. With the improvement in China-U.S. trade relations, there are opportunities for recovery in general cargo demand, and freight rates are expected to have upward elasticity [2][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 172.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 20.0 billion yuan, down 3.2% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 59.9 billion yuan, and net profit was 7.1 billion yuan [4][6]. - The revenue breakdown for Q3 shows that air express services, ground comprehensive services, and comprehensive logistics solutions generated revenues of 27.9 billion yuan, 7.0 billion yuan, and 25.0 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +22.6%, +9.2%, and -27.9% [8]. Operational Insights - The average TAC price index decreased by approximately 6% year-on-year, and the average utilization rate of cargo aircraft fell by about 12%. However, the number of available cargo aircraft increased year-on-year, and the company adjusted its operational routes to enhance efficiency [8]. - The company faced increased financial expenses due to rising leasing debts from new aircraft acquisitions, and government subsidies decreased, impacting profits [8]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the net profit attributable to shareholders will be 26.5 billion yuan, 29.5 billion yuan, and 33.5 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 10.1, 9.0, and 8.0 times, respectively [8].

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨赛轮轮胎（601058.SH） [Table_Title] Q3 营收破百亿规模，全球化再下一城 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 年三季报，前三季度实现收入 275.9 亿元（同比+16.8%），实现归属净利润 28.7 亿元（同比-11.5%），实现归属扣非净利润 28.2 亿元（同比-9.7%）。其中 Q3 单季度实现收入 100.0 亿元（同比+18.0%，环比+9.0%），实现归属净利润 10.4 亿元（同比-4.7%，环比+31.3%）， 实现归属扣非净利润 10.0 亿元（同比-7.2%，环比+21.9%）。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 赛轮轮胎（601058.SH） cjzqdt11111 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马太 叶家宏 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490522060003 SFC：BUT911 风险提示 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 ⚫ 。 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 结存限额支持化债，发行规模已逾 1500 亿 ——政府债周报（11/16） 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 11 月 17 日-11 月 23 日地方债披露发行 1846.59 亿元。其中新增债 1026.68 亿元（新增一般债 203.57 亿元，新增专项债 823.11 亿元），再融资债 819.91 亿元（再融资一般债 466.63 亿元， 再融资专项债 353.28 亿元）。 11 月 10 日-11 月 16 日地方债共发行 2850.66 亿元。其中新增债 1519.16 亿元（新增一般债 125.18 亿元，新增专项债 1393.99 亿元），再融资债 1331.50 亿元（再融资一般债 854.25 亿 元，再融资专项债 477.25 亿元）。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 ...

[Table_Author] [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨科德数控（688305.SH） [Table_Title] 科德数控：研发轴向磁通电机，新兴领域持续拓 展 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布三季报，2025 年前三季度，公司实现营业收入 4.00 亿元，同比增长 5.01%；实现归 母净利润 0.64 亿元，同比下降 11.53%；实现扣非归母净利润 0.48 亿元，同比下降 15.02%。 单季度来看，2025 年 Q3 实现营业收入 1.06 亿元，同比下降 15.79%；实现归母净利润 1487 万元，同比下降 37.56%；实现扣非归母净利润 1220 万元，同比下降 31.58%。公司是国内少 数具备完善产业链的机床整机企业。当前公司持续推进产能建设落地，叠加一体化布局有望打 开成长空间。 分析师及联系人 丨证券研究报告丨 赵智勇 臧雄 杨文建 SAC：S0490517110001 SAC：S0490518070005 SAC：S0490525070003 SFC：BRP550 SFC：BVO790 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% ...

- The report highlights the launch of multiple active quantitative strategies since July 2023, including Dividend Selection Strategy and High Winning Rate Industry Strategy, aimed at tracking market trends and selecting industry-specific stocks [6][14][15] - Active quantitative strategies follow a top-down stock selection logic, leveraging industry and thematic insights to refine factor selection from a large fundamental factor pool, enabling precise identification of potential stocks within specific sectors [14] - The Dividend Series includes two products: "Central SOE High Dividend 30 Portfolio" and "Balanced Growth Dividend 50 Portfolio," focusing on stable and growth-oriented dividend strategies [15] - The Electronics Series includes two products: "Electronics Balanced Allocation Enhanced Portfolio" and "Electronics Sector Preferred Enhanced Portfolio," targeting mature sub-sector leaders within the electronics industry [15] - Weekly performance tracking shows that the Electronics Balanced Allocation Enhanced Portfolio and Electronics Sector Preferred Enhanced Portfolio achieved positive excess returns of approximately 1.86% and 1.62%, respectively, outperforming the benchmark [7][25][32] - The Dividend Series underperformed the benchmark this week, with the Central SOE High Dividend 30 Portfolio and Balanced Growth Dividend 50 Portfolio failing to exceed the returns of the CSI Dividend Total Return Index [7][16][22] - The CSI Dividend Index achieved a weekly return of 0.25%, while sub-indices like CSI Dividend Growth and CSI Dividend Low Volatility outperformed with average weekly returns of approximately 1.31% and 1.08%, respectively [7][16][19] - The Electronics Series portfolios ranked in the top 26%-28% among active technology-themed funds based on weekly returns [32] - The report emphasizes the differentiation of active quantitative strategies from traditional ones, highlighting their ability to integrate thematic and industry logic for enhanced stock selection and strategy validation [14]

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 4000 points, and market volume slightly decreased. The banking, home decoration, and leisure sectors led the gains, while electronics, telecommunications, and media internet sectors saw corrections [2][5][9] - The Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 0.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.93%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 2.82%. The total market turnover was approximately 1.98 trillion yuan [9][15] Market Performance - In terms of sector performance, the banking sector increased by 0.26%, home decoration and leisure by 0.18%, and construction products by 0.13%. Conversely, the electronics sector decreased by 2.93%, telecommunications by 2.40%, and media internet by 2.01% [9][15] - Conceptually, the "Cross-Strait Integration" concept rose by 4.19%, while sectors like storage, HBM, advanced packaging, and optical modules saw significant declines [9] Market Drivers - The market's risk appetite has decreased due to heightened geopolitical uncertainties and hawkish comments from some Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts. This has led to profit-taking in previously high-performing sectors, particularly in technology [9][15] - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the Chinese stock market, emphasizing that macroeconomic liquidity remains ample and that the market is expected to experience a "slow bull" trend, drawing parallels to previous bull markets in 1999, 2014, and 2019 [9][15] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on technology growth and value sectors that are gradually recovering. Key areas of interest include AI and robotics, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, military industry, and Hong Kong internet stocks [9][15] - For long-term strategies, attention should be given to sectors with improving profitability, such as fiberglass, cement, paper, and fine chemicals, as well as non-bank sectors in a slow bull market [9][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The calendar effect in the convertible bond market results from the multi - dimensional intersection of macro - policy rhythms, micro - capital behaviors, and supply - demand changes. It provides a reference perspective for analyzing the fluctuations in the convertible bond and equity markets [4]. - There are significant "calendar effects" in the convertible bond and equity markets, which are formed by multiple factors such as policy meetings, capital - flow periodic fluctuations, earnings disclosure rhythms, and changes in investors' risk preferences. This offers a time - dimension reference for asset allocation [7]. - At the sector level, the "calendar effect" is related to industry rotation intensity, policy rhythms, and performance disclosure cycles. It can help identify phased allocation opportunities. In the short term, it is recommended to focus on industrial and information technology convertible bonds [8]. - From the perspective of supply - demand rhythms, the price center of convertible bonds is expected to continue rising. The supply - demand pattern of the convertible bond market shows certain seasonal characteristics, and grasping the rhythm changes may help in layout during phased supply - demand relaxation windows [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Periodically Appearing "Calendar Effect" - The "calendar effect" refers to the statistically repeatable return deviations or behavior patterns in the securities market within specific time cycles. The research focuses on the performance of A - share and convertible bond main indices from early 2018 to October 24, 2025 [18]. - In the weekly calendar effect, there is a "Monday strong" phenomenon. Mid - and large - cap indices like CSI 300 and CSI 500, as well as the CSI Convertible Bond Index, show a "Wednesday weak" feature, while small - and mid - cap indices like CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 show a "Friday weak" feature. This may be related to the "T + 1" trading mechanism and the influence of public funds [18][21]. - In the monthly performance, the overall performance of major indices in the late part of the month is usually weaker than that in the first and middle parts. The "calendar effect" within a month may be related to the periodic fluctuations of the capital flow. The CSI Convertible Bond market also shows a significant monthly calendar effect [27][30]. 3.2 "Calendar Effect" under Policy Guidelines - Policy releases have certain time rules and rhythms, which are important sources of the A - share market's "calendar effect". Key economic meetings should be highly concerned, such as the Politburo meeting, the Central Economic Work Conference, and the Central Financial Work Conference [35]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index and the Wind All - A Index show certain monthly seasonal characteristics. The risk premium of the market has declined, and the equity market still has relatively high cost - effectiveness. The monthly periodic performance of these indices may be related to the annual policy release rhythm and important meeting arrangements [38][43]. 3.3 "Calendar Effect" from the Perspective of Financial Reports - The equity market shows periodic stock - price fluctuations around financial report releases. After the annual report season, the performance of small - and mid - cap indices weakens, while the large - cap style is dominant at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. Different sectors have different performances during and after the annual report performance disclosure period [45][47]. 3.4 "Calendar Effect" under Risk Preferences - Changes in risk preferences are a key factor driving the calendar effect in the convertible bond market. The convertible bond market is more active in the second and third quarters. The financing - margin trading volume ratio to the total A - share trading volume also shows periodic changes, which may be related to policy release rhythms and corporate earnings disclosure cycles [57][59]. 3.5 Opportunity Identification of the "Calendar Effect" at the Sector Dimension - Since September, the industry rotation intensity has increased. The periods of high rotation intensity are usually in April, August, September, and December, while February, June, October, and November are relatively flat. The narrowing of the conversion premium rate channel may indicate future directional changes in the convertible bond market [67][72]. 3.6 Monthly - Dimension Industry Rotation Rules - In the "Spring Rally" at the beginning of the year (January - February), technology - growth sectors perform prominently. During the annual report performance disclosure period (March - May), defensive sectors perform well. In the mid - year report performance game period (June - July), cyclical and growth sectors resonate. After the mid - year report is released (August - September), most sectors enter a callback. At the end of the year (October - December), there is a style switch and defensive allocation [75][81]. 3.7 Industrial Convertible Bonds Still Have Room for Growth during Supply - Demand Reconstruction - Industrial convertible bonds are a worthy allocation direction in November. Benefiting from the improvement of the supply - demand relationship and the overall contraction of the convertible bond market supply, industrial convertible bonds perform better than in previous years. Although the current valuation is high, it is still attractive, and the convertible bonds have the potential to rise after valuation digestion [85][90]. 3.8 The Information Technology Sector May Continue to Be the Main Line - The information technology sector has a higher probability of strengthening in March, July, and November. Currently, it is in the early stage of the "15th Five - Year Plan", and with policy support and technological iteration, its performance in the equity market may be sustainable. From August, the information technology convertible bond index has gradually recovered, and it may still have performance space from November to December [97].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.378 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.11%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 121 million yuan, down 71.59% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, revenue was 1.341 billion yuan, a decline of 48.54% year-on-year and 45.88% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of -36 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 118.58% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 176.45% [2][5][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the gross profit margin was 16.4%, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.4 percentage points, while the expense ratio rose to 18.7%, an increase of 9.5 percentage points, primarily due to the decline in revenue. The total expenses for Q3 were 250 million yuan, showing a growth compared to the previous quarter [11]. - The company experienced asset impairment reversals of 90 million yuan and credit impairment losses of 100 million yuan in Q3, which had a limited impact on profits [11]. Future Outlook - The second phase of the Jeddah factory in Saudi Arabia was completed in October, with an annual delivery capacity of 15 GW, enhancing the company's position in the Middle East market. The company has resumed cooperation with India's Adani, which is expected to contribute to order growth in the Indian market. As of the end of Q3, the company had an order backlog of 7.2 billion yuan, including 6.01 billion yuan in tracking systems and 1.11 billion yuan in fixed structures. The resolution of project delivery delays is anticipated to restore revenue and profit [11].