丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 久违的煤价反弹力度如何？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 久违的煤价反弹力度如何？我们认为本次反弹核心驱动在于供给年末收缩与需求边际改善的 共振，叠加政策托底预期强化。尽管高库存环境、元旦后煤矿逐步复产、终端采购谨慎心态或 仍共同制约煤价反弹力度，然而价格下行有底得以体现，叠加岁末年初险资有望增配煤炭板块， 当前时点建议继续重视煤炭红利配置机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 煤炭与消费用燃料 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 久违的煤价反弹力度如何？ [Table_Summary2] 最新跟踪：动力煤止跌反弹，焦煤暂稳运行 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [10] Core Insights - In November, the national trading volume of green certificates reached 132.12 million, a year-on-year increase of 143%, marking a historical high for monthly trading scale. From January to November, the trading of green certificates accounted for 41.81% of the issued tradable scale, an increase of 27.65 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024, indicating a continuous alleviation of the oversupply issue in green certificates [2][12] - The average trading price of green certificates in November was 4.96 yuan per certificate, showing a month-on-month increase of 10.80%. The improvement in both supply and demand sides is expected to provide long-term support for green certificate prices, further catalyzing the recovery of the utility sector's attributes and growth narrative [2][12] - The report highlights a significant increase in new installed capacity for thermal power, with a historical high of 77.52 million kilowatts added from January to November, representing a year-on-year growth of 63.41%. This expansion is expected to enhance the power system's regulation capacity and alleviate the pressure on renewable energy consumption and electricity prices [2][12] Summary by Sections Green Certificate Trading - The trading volume of green certificates in November reached 132.12 million, a 143% increase year-on-year, with the trading scale hitting a historical high. The trading of green certificates from January to November totaled 728 million, a 119% increase year-on-year. The proportion of traded green certificates to the issued tradable scale reached 41.81%, up 27.65 percentage points from 2024 [2][12] - The average trading price for green certificates in November was 4.96 yuan per certificate, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10.80%. The price stability is supported by the synchronized improvement in supply and demand, with expectations of rational expansion in supply due to policy changes [2][12] Installed Capacity - From January to November, the total new installed capacity was 44.557 million kilowatts, with November alone contributing 4.773 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 27.86%. Wind and solar power installations saw significant growth, with wind power increasing by 59.42% and solar power by 33.25% year-on-year [2][12] - The report emphasizes that the substantial expansion of thermal power capacity will significantly enhance the power system's ability to accommodate fluctuating renewable energy outputs, thereby stabilizing electricity prices [2][12] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality thermal power operators such as Huaneng International, Datang Power, Guodian Power, and Huadian International, as well as hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation. It also highlights opportunities in the renewable energy sector, suggesting companies like Longyuan Power and New天绿色能源 [2][12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [7] Core Insights - Geopolitical fluctuations are driving safe-haven demand, with a focus on upcoming economic data and adjustments to the Bloomberg Commodity Index. Short-term gold and silver may experience wide fluctuations, but it is recommended to increase equity allocation during corrections. The recent increase in metal futures margin requirements by the CME has led to significant price volatility in gold and silver, with short-term forced liquidation sentiment easing. The outlook for Q1 2026 suggests that the inflation and liquidity resonance window remains unchanged, with silver leading the continued upward trend in precious metals [3][4][5] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions are creating a demand for safe-haven assets, while upcoming economic data and the Bloomberg Commodity Index adjustments are being monitored. Short-term fluctuations in gold and silver prices are expected, but equity allocation should be increased during corrections. The recent margin hikes by the CME have caused significant price volatility, and the forced liquidation sentiment has eased. The inflation and liquidity resonance window is expected to remain unchanged through Q1 2026, with silver leading the upward trend in precious metals [3][4] Industrial Metals - The overall performance of industrial metals remains strong, driven by increased expectations of interest rate cuts and copper accumulation in the U.S. Recent data shows a week-on-week increase in copper inventory by 5.73% and a year-on-year increase of 86.11%. Aluminum inventory also saw a week-on-week increase of 2.93% and a year-on-year increase of 1.96%. The core logic for the strength in copper and aluminum prices is linked to interest rate cut expectations and U.S. copper accumulation [4][5] Energy and Minor Metals - Lithium is expected to see a supply inflection point and a new demand cycle. The price of lithium carbonate futures has surpassed 120,000 yuan/ton, reaching a new high. The recovery in rare earth demand is anticipated to initiate a new upward trend, with significant improvements in the performance of rare earth companies. Tungsten prices are also on the rise, with a long-term bullish outlook. The cobalt market is expected to face shortages from 2025 to 2027, with prices likely to rise due to supply constraints [5][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the issuance of government bonds, specifically local government bonds, including actual and forecasted issuance, special bond issuance progress, and related statistics [2][6][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Issuance Forecast and Review - 12/29 - 01/04: Local government bonds are forecasted to issue 260.0 billion yuan, including 145.0 billion yuan in new bonds (0.0 billion in new general bonds and 145.0 billion in new special bonds) and 115.0 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (85.0 billion in refinancing general bonds and 30.0 billion in refinancing special bonds) [2][6]. - 12/22 - 12/28: Local government bonds actually issued 20.4 billion yuan, all of which were new bonds (0.0 billion in new general bonds and 20.4 billion in new special bonds), with 0.0 billion yuan in refinancing bonds [2][7]. 2. Special Bond Issuance Progress - As of 12/28, the fifth - batch second - round special refinancing bonds totaled 20,000.00 billion yuan, the sixth - round totaled 2,996.00 billion yuan, and 115.00 billion yuan will be newly disclosed next week. The top three regions in the fifth - batch second - round are Jiangsu (2,511.00 billion yuan), Hunan (1,288.00 billion yuan), and Henan (1,227.00 billion yuan) [8]. - As of 12/28, the 2025 special new special bonds totaled 13,668.08 billion yuan, and 0.00 billion yuan since 2023. The top three regions in 2025 are Jiangsu (1,289.00 billion yuan), Guangdong (1,239.28 billion yuan), and Henan (759.60 billion yuan) [8]. 3. Local Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - **Actual vs. Pre - issuance Disclosure**: Compares the actual issuance of local bonds with pre - issuance disclosures [14]. - **Planned vs. Actual Issuance Comparison**: Compares the planned and actual issuance of local bonds in different months and regions, including new bonds, new general bonds, new special bonds, and refinancing bonds [16][23]. 4. Local Bond Net Supply - 12/22 - 12/28: Local bond net supply was - 32 billion yuan; 12/29 - 01/04: Forecasted net supply is 174 billion yuan [18]. 5. New Bond Issuance Progress - As of 12/28, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 95.81%, and that of new special bonds was 100% [28]. 6. Refinancing Bond Net Supply - As of 12/28, the cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities is shown in the relevant chart, with the statistical scope including issued and disclosed but unissued bonds [30][31]. 7. Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of 12/28, the statistics of special refinancing bonds in different rounds and regions are presented, with detailed statistical scope and round definitions [33][34][35]. - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of 12/28, the statistics of special new special bonds in different years and regions are provided, including 2023, 2024, and 2025, with the statistical scope including issued and disclosed but unissued bonds [36][37][38]. 8. Local Bond Investment and Trading - **One - two - level Spread**: Presents the one - level and two - level spreads of local bonds and the spread by region [40][41][42]. - **New Special Bond Investment Direction**: Shows the investment direction of new special bonds, with the latest month's statistics only considering issued new bonds [43].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Insights - The beer industry in China has transitioned from a volume-driven growth phase, which peaked in 2013, to a focus on premiumization and diversification due to weakening demand in on-premise consumption and slowing price increases [2][5][29] - Since 2018, beer companies have been optimizing product structures and launching premium products, leading to a sustained increase in average prices and profitability [5][21] - As of 2023, beer companies are actively exploring diversification strategies to adapt to changing market conditions [29][40] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The beer industry's growth phase driven by volume has ended, with companies now focusing on premiumization and product optimization [2][5] - The average price of beer has been increasing due to the rising share of mid-to-high-end products [21] Company Strategies - **China Resources Beer**: Initiated a dual-growth model by entering the liquor market, acquiring several liquor brands, and leveraging its management experience [6][29] - **Tsingtao Brewery**: Engaged in strategic restructuring with local beverage companies to expand into new beverage and biotechnology sectors, including a new production base for biotechnology [7][30] - **Yanjing Beer**: Developed a significant beverage and health product line, including a successful natto series, and launched a new soda brand to synergize with its beer business [8][32][36] - **Chongqing Beer**: Expanded its product range to include non-beer beverages, leveraging its parent company's product matrix to enhance sales channels [9][40]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [10] Core Insights - The konjac snack market is currently a standout growth category within the snack market, achieving a 17.45% year-on-year growth during the MAT202511 period (December 2024 to November 2025) despite an overall decline in the snack market [2][4][17] - The market share of the top three groups (CR3) in the konjac snack industry increased from 67% to 75%, indicating a significant concentration trend [4][26][28] - The konjac snack category is expected to continue expanding, with the number of SKUs increasing by 53% and the number of participating groups growing by 41% from December 2023 to November 2025 [26][33] Summary by Sections Konjac Snack Market Dynamics - The konjac snack category has shown remarkable growth, with a 17.45% year-on-year increase during the MAT202511 period, contrasting with an 11.94% decline in overall snack sales [2][17] - The spicy flavor remains the most stable and dominant in the konjac snack category, maintaining over 35% market share [18] - The market share of traditional snacks like spicy strips is declining, while konjac snacks are gaining traction, with their market share surpassing 2% for the first time in May 2025 [17][18] Supply and Market Concentration - The supply side of the konjac snack category is expanding, with SKU numbers rising from 2,718 to 4,158, and brand numbers increasing from 859 to 1,261 [26] - The CR3 group's market share has increased significantly, indicating a trend towards market concentration, while the CR10 group now holds 84.3% of the market [26][28] Competitive Landscape - Major brands like Weilong and Yanjin are adapting their strategies, with Yanjin's sub-brand "Big Demon King" rapidly gaining market share, while Weilon's sub-brand "Little Witch" has seen a decline [31][33] - The konjac snack market is characterized by strong competition, with both established and emerging brands vying for market share, highlighting its attractiveness and growth potential [33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the investment banking and brokerage industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" rating [8] Core Insights - The non-bank financial sector has shown weak overall performance this week, with the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) implementing multiple measures to promote high-quality development in the capital market, including new regulations on fund sales and the introduction of commercial real estate investment trusts (REITs) [2][4] - The insurance sector is expected to see improved return on equity (ROE) and valuation recovery, supported by trends such as the migration of deposits and increased equity allocation [4] - The report recommends focusing on companies with stable profit growth and dividend rates, such as Jiangsu Jinzhong, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance, while also highlighting the potential of New China Life, China Life, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Caifu, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings based on performance elasticity and valuation [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-bank financial index decreased by 1.8% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 by 1.3%, ranking 27th out of 31 sectors [5] - Year-to-date, the non-bank financial index has increased by 10.1%, but still lags behind the CSI 300 by 7.6%, ranking 20th out of 31 sectors [5] Key Industry News & Company Announcements - The CSRC has issued several important announcements, including the launch of commercial real estate REITs and revisions to fund sales regulations, aimed at enhancing the capital market [6] - Notable company announcements include Nanjing Securities completing a private placement of approximately 713 million A-shares, increasing its total share capital, and Guoyuan Securities planning to transfer its stake in Anyuan Fund to related parties [6] Insurance Sector Insights - In November 2025, the insurance industry achieved a cumulative premium income of 57,629 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.56%, with life insurance premiums growing by 9.06% [22][23] - The total assets of the insurance sector reached 40.65 trillion, with life insurance companies holding 35.75 trillion, indicating a stable asset allocation [26][27] Brokerage and Investment Business - The brokerage sector has seen a recovery in trading activity, with average daily trading volume reaching 21,283.16 billion, up 8.30% week-on-week [41] - Equity market performance has been declining, with the CSI 300 index down 0.59% and the ChiNext index down 1.25% [45] - Margin financing has increased, with a balance of 2.56 trillion, reflecting a 0.39% week-on-week rise [49] Capital Market Financing - In December 2025, equity financing reached 663.12 billion, a 30.9% increase, while bond financing totaled 7.34 trillion, up 4.0% [53] - The report anticipates an increase in stock underwriting volumes due to new refinancing regulations, while bond underwriting will be influenced by interest rate changes [53]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the renewable energy electrolysis hydrogen production sector, indicating it as a significant opportunity for investment [4]. Core Insights - The renewable energy electrolysis hydrogen methodology is the first CCER methodology in the hydrogen sector, converting emission reductions from clean hydrogen projects into tradable carbon assets, which is crucial for promoting hydrogen utilization and achieving carbon neutrality goals [4][11]. - The profitability of CCER restoration projects is highlighted, with a specific project in Inner Mongolia showing a total investment of approximately 1 billion yuan and an annual hydrogen production of over 7,000 tons. The project's payback period is expected to shorten from 9.21 years to 8.62 years when considering CCER income [4][11]. Summary by Sections CCER Methodology - The CCER methodology provides a unified standard for calculating emission reductions from new renewable energy electrolysis hydrogen projects, facilitating their commercialization [11]. - Eligible projects must be newly built, utilize self-owned renewable energy sources, and comply with various regulatory requirements [11]. Market Potential - As of the end of 2024, over 600 renewable energy electrolysis hydrogen projects are planned in China, with more than 90 completed, resulting in an annual capacity of approximately 125,000 tons, primarily located in North and Northwest China [11]. - The project in Inner Mongolia, with a net cash flow of 109 million yuan per year without CCER income, shows a significant improvement in investment returns when CCER income is factored in [11]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on green hydrogen operations and electrolysis equipment, as the profitability of green hydrogen projects is expected to improve, driving demand for electrolysis equipment [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive investment outlook for the technology sector, specifically highlighting key stocks for January 2026 [6]. Core Insights - The report identifies several key companies within the technology sector, including Eastcompeace, Jincheng Electronics, Xinyi Technology, Tax Friend, Haiguang Information, Giant Network, and Perfect World, as potential investment opportunities [6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14]. Summary by Category Electronics - **Eastcompeace**: The company is entering a growth phase driven by AI technology breakthroughs, leading to increased capital expenditure from cloud vendors and a surge in demand for data servers. The acquisition of Solstice Optoelectronics enhances its position in optical communication [8]. - **Jincheng Electronics**: The company reported a revenue of 889 million yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%. The semiconductor business is expected to grow significantly, with an order backlog of approximately 1.791 billion yuan [9]. Communication - **Xinyi Technology**: As a leading manufacturer of high-speed optical modules, the company has made significant inroads with major clients like Amazon and is expected to see substantial profit growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 94.97 million yuan, 166.16 million yuan, and 217.76 million yuan respectively [10]. - **Huafeng Technology**: The company is positioned to benefit from the high demand for AI applications and is expected to see net profits grow from 3.53 million yuan in 2025 to 8.73 million yuan by 2027 [10]. Computer - **Tax Friend**: The company is a leader in the financial IT sector, leveraging AI and big data to provide comprehensive solutions for businesses. It aims to enhance its product offerings and customer engagement through innovative AI-driven solutions [11]. - **Haiguang Information**: The company is a key player in the domestic high-end CPU market, expected to benefit from the growing demand for AI computing power. It aims to establish a comprehensive AI computing platform [12]. Media - **Giant Network**: The company is experiencing stable commercialization with new game releases and updates expected to drive user engagement and revenue growth [13]. - **Perfect World**: The company is preparing for the launch of its new game "Yihuan," which has shown strong pre-launch interest, and is also focusing on expanding its esports business [14].

Group 1: Metal Sector - Yun Aluminum Co. (000807.SZ) is projected to achieve a net profit of CNY 44.12 billion in 2024, increasing to CNY 75.75 billion by 2026, with a PE ratio decreasing from 25.82 to 15.04[9] - The company has a comprehensive production capacity of 305,000 tons of green aluminum and 140,000 tons of alumina, positioning it as a leader in the green aluminum sector[18] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decrease to 23% by 2024, maintaining a strong ROE of 15.6%[24] Group 2: Construction Materials - Huaxin Cement (600801.SH) is forecasted to have a net profit of CNY 24.16 billion in 2024, growing to CNY 36.58 billion by 2026, with a PE ratio dropping from 18.60 to 12.29[9] - China National Materials (002080.SZ) is expected to see its net profit rise from CNY 8.92 billion in 2024 to CNY 25.87 billion in 2026, with a PE ratio decreasing from 68.38 to 23.57[9] Group 3: Transportation Sector - SF Holding (002352.SZ) is projected to achieve a net profit of CNY 101.70 billion in 2024, increasing to CNY 124.78 billion by 2026, with a PE ratio declining from 18.82 to 15.34[9] - The Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway (601816.SH) is expected to see a slight increase in profit, with a PE ratio of 1973.38 in 2024, dropping to 1758.94 by 2026[9] Group 4: Chemical Sector - Senqcia (002984.SZ) is forecasted to have a net profit of CNY 21.86 billion in 2024, with a PE ratio of 10.03, expected to rise to CNY 21.26 billion by 2026[9] - Yara International (000893.SZ) is projected to achieve a net profit of CNY 9.50 billion in 2024, increasing to CNY 39.34 billion by 2026, with a PE ratio decreasing from 46.64 to 11.27[9]