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公用事业行业点评:新政聚焦绿电消纳破局,坚定新能源发展长期目标
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-12 04:44
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Insights - The recent guidance from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration emphasizes that by 2030, the new electricity demand will primarily be met by new energy generation, reinforcing the commitment to the "dual carbon" goals. The annual addition of over 200 million kilowatts of new capacity aligns with the overall target of reaching 3.6 billion kilowatts of wind and solar capacity by 2035 [2][12] - The report highlights that the market system will be improved to accommodate the characteristics of new energy output, which will alleviate pricing pressures and stabilize long-term revenue expectations for projects. The adjustment of pricing mechanisms for regulating power sources is expected to provide marginal support for industry value [12][12] Summary by Sections Policy Developments - The recent policy aims to enhance the consumption and regulation of new energy, supporting the construction of a new energy system and power system [6] - The policy sets a target for significant new energy capacity additions, indicating a shift towards high-quality development rather than merely increasing capacity [12] Market Mechanisms - The report discusses the need for a market system that adapts to the volatility of new energy output, including shortening trading cycles and promoting long-term purchase agreements to stabilize revenue expectations [12] - The development of a green certificate market and the integration of "electricity-certificates-carbon" markets are expected to effectively realize the environmental value of green electricity [12] Pricing Mechanisms - The report emphasizes the need to improve pricing mechanisms for regulatory resources, which will enhance the profitability of adjustment resources and stabilize revenue expectations [12] - The promotion of time-of-use pricing for residential users is expected to facilitate the reform of the electricity system and improve cost-sharing mechanisms [12] Investment Recommendations - As 2025 marks the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the report suggests focusing on wind power over solar energy and recommends companies such as Longyuan Power, New Energy Green, and Huadian International for investment opportunities [12]
中海油服(601808):钻井业务量价齐升叠加降本增效,前三季度业绩大增31.28%
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-12 01:42
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit by 31.28% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 3.209 billion yuan, driven by improved operational efficiency and reduced financial costs [2][5] - The drilling business has seen a substantial improvement in day rates due to the commencement of high-day-rate projects, contributing to the overall revenue growth [2][5] - The company is committed to a "technology-driven" strategy, which is expected to support stable growth in its oilfield technology services business in the future [2][5] - The potential of offshore oil and gas resources is significant, and the company is expected to benefit from China National Offshore Oil Corporation's (CNOOC) ongoing efforts to increase reserves and production [2][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 34.854 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.54% [2][5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the third quarter was 1.246 billion yuan, reflecting a 46.13% year-on-year growth [2][5] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters reached 18.20%, an increase of 0.96 percentage points year-on-year [11] Drilling Business - The company’s drilling platforms operated for 14,784 days in the first three quarters, a 12.3% increase year-on-year [11] - The average day rate for platforms in the first half of 2025 was 91,000 USD/day, up 5.8% year-on-year, with semi-submersible platform day rates increasing by 27.6% [11] Technology and Market Strategy - The oilfield technology service business has seen a growth in operational volume despite a slight decline in market size [11] - The company aims to increase the revenue share of its oilfield technology services from 57% in 2024 to 60% by 2030 [11] Market Outlook - The global exploration and development of offshore and unconventional oil and gas resources are expected to be key growth areas, with CNOOC's capital expenditure budget for 2025 set between 125 billion and 135 billion yuan [11]
吉利汽车(00175):2025年10月销量点评:月销突破30万辆,总量及新能源再创历史新高
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-12 01:42
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - Geely Automobile reported a total sales volume of 307,000 units in October 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 35.5% and a month-on-month increase of 12.5% [2][4]. - Cumulative sales from January to October 2025 reached 2.477 million units, up 44.3% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company is expected to enter a new product era supported by the GEA architecture, with positive developments across its brands including Zeekr, Lynk & Co, and Galaxy [7]. - The transition to new energy vehicles is progressing smoothly, with scale effects expected to enhance profitability [7]. - Geely's strong foundation in fuel vehicles and innovative overseas expansion strategies are opening new markets [7]. - The company is set to launch 10 new energy models in 2025, with significant advancements in smart driving capabilities [7]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - October 2025 sales reached 307,000 units, with Geely brand, Lynk & Co, and Zeekr sales at 245,000, 40,000, and 21,000 units respectively [7]. - Galaxy brand achieved 127,000 units in October, marking a 100.8% increase year-on-year [7]. - Exports in October totaled 42,000 units, up 22.6% year-on-year [7]. - New energy vehicle sales in October were 178,000 units, accounting for 57.9% of total sales, a year-on-year increase of 63.6% [7]. Product Strategy - Geely plans to launch 10 new energy models in 2025, including five new models and several facelifts [7]. - The company is enhancing its smart driving capabilities, with new models expected to feature advanced driving technologies [7]. Financial Outlook - The projected net profit for 2025 is 16.1 billion yuan, with a corresponding price-to-earnings ratio of 10.6X [7].
小鹏汽车-W(09868):2025年10月销量点评:同环比持续增长,月销再破4万辆
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-12 01:42
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - In October 2025, the company delivered 42,013 new vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 75.7% and a month-on-month increase of 1.0% [2][4]. - Cumulatively, from January to October 2025, the company delivered 355,000 new vehicles, marking a year-on-year increase of 190.0% [2][4]. - The company is expected to see steady sales growth driven by strong new vehicle cycles, enhanced marketing systems, and ongoing improvements in smart driving technology [2][9]. - The new models MONA M03 and P7+ are expected to initiate a new vehicle cycle for the company [9]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - October 2025 saw a record monthly delivery of over 40,000 vehicles, with significant contributions from the new P7 model and strong sales of the SUV family [9]. - The MONA M03 model alone delivered over 15,000 units in October, with total deliveries exceeding 200,000 since its launch [9]. Future Outlook - For Q3 2025, the company anticipates deliveries between 113,000 and 118,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 142.8% to 153.6% [9]. - Expected revenue for Q3 2025 is projected to be between 19.6 billion and 21 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 94.0% to 107.9% [9]. Strategic Developments - The company is expanding its international presence, having entered seven new markets in Europe, Asia, and Africa, transitioning from rapid expansion to solid operations [9]. - The upcoming launch of the next-generation extended-range product, the X9, is anticipated to enhance the company's competitive edge with its unique features [9].
凌云股份(600480):三报点评:汇兑亏损减少加之子公司盈利大增,公司业绩同比改善明显
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-11 23:30
丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨凌云股份(600480.SH) [Table_Title] 凌云股份三报点评:汇兑亏损减少加之子公司盈 利大增,公司业绩同比改善明显 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司 2025Q3 实现营业收入 48.1 亿元,同比+9.0%;归母净利润 1.6 亿元,同比+52.9%。长 期看,公司战略转型新能源,轻量化产品储备齐全,加快全球供应能力,全球新能源轻量化市 场地位持续提升,后续新业务打开公司第二成长曲线。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Title 凌云股份三报点评:汇兑亏损减少加之子公司 2] 盈利大增,公司业绩同比改善明显 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 王子豪 SAC:S0490517060001 SAC:S0490524070004 SFC:BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 凌云股份(600480.SH) cjzqdt11111 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司 2025Q3 实现营业 ...
影石创新(688775):营收增长提速,研发坚定投入
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-11 23:30
丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 联合研究丨公司点评丨影石创新(688775.SH) [Table_Title] 营收增长提速,研发坚定投入 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 年三季报:2025 年前三季度公司实现营业收入 66.11 亿元,同比增长 67.18%, 实现归母净利润 7.92 亿元,同比下滑 5.95%,实现扣非归母净利润 7.42 亿元,同比下滑 7.74%; 其中单三季度来看,公司实现营业收入 29.40 亿元,同比增长 92.64%,实现归母净利润 2.72 亿元,同比下滑 15.90%,实现扣非归母净利润 2.50 亿元,同比下滑 20.01%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈亮 李锦 杨洋 SAC:S0490517070017 SAC:S0490514080004 SAC:S0490517070012 SFC:BUW408 SFC:BUV258 SFC:BUW100 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% 公司发布 2025 年三季报:2025 年前三季度公司实现营业收入 66.11 亿元,同比增长 67.18%, ...
香港交易所(00388):2025年三季报点评:港股交投维持高位,业绩创历史前三季新高
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-11 23:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388.HK) [2][9] Core Views - The report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market's liquidity is expected to continue to rise due to a series of connectivity policies, leading to increased market activity and valuation [2][6] - For the years 2025-2027, the company is projected to achieve revenues and other income of HKD 282.86 billion, HKD 304.18 billion, and HKD 322.14 billion, respectively, with net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 173.74 billion, HKD 188.57 billion, and HKD 200.92 billion, corresponding to PE ratios of 30.91, 28.48, and 26.73 times [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues and other income of HKD 218.51 billion, a year-on-year increase of 36.63%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 134.19 billion, up 44.8% year-on-year [6][9] - Revenue growth was driven by significant increases in trading and transaction fees, listing fees, and settlement and clearing fees, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 57.28%, 17.08%, and 65.66% [6][9] Market Activity - The report highlights a substantial increase in trading activity across the cash, derivatives, and commodities markets, with daily average trading volumes for cash securities up 132.4% year-on-year [6][9] - The report notes that the number of new listings and the amount raised in the first three quarters of 2025 saw significant growth, with new listings totaling 69 and fundraising amounts increasing by 258.5% [6][9] Investment Income - Investment income for Q3 2025 was reported at HKD 10.18 billion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline of 16% and a year-on-year decrease of 34% [6][9] - The annualized investment return rate for margin and clearing house fund investments decreased by 0.15 percentage points to 1.46% [6][9] Future Projections - The report anticipates continued growth in revenues and profits for the company, driven by favorable market conditions and policy support, with projected revenues of HKD 282.86 billion in 2025, HKD 304.18 billion in 2026, and HKD 322.14 billion in 2027 [2][10]
仙乐健康(300791):业务修复稳步推进,产品结构优化
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-11 23:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.291 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.96%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 260 million yuan, up 8.53% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 244 million yuan, an increase of 3.42% year-on-year. In Q3 2025 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 1.250 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.11%, with a net profit of 99.15 million yuan, up 16.20% year-on-year, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 84.96 million yuan, an increase of 3.75% year-on-year [2][4][11] Financial Performance - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 1.05 percentage points to 32.26%, while the net profit margin attributable to the parent company rose by 0.04 percentage points to 7.91%. In Q3 2025, the gross profit margin was 30.76%, up 1.12 percentage points year-on-year [11] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 341 million yuan, 431 million yuan, and 538 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 22, 18, and 14 times [11] Business Outlook - The company is experiencing steady business recovery and product structure optimization, with a positive long-term growth outlook. The internal business profitability is strong, although some production lines are exerting pressure on profits. The company is in the process of selling certain production lines, which may enhance its growth potential [11]
涪陵榨菜(002507):2025年三季报点评:新品上架持续推进,公司进入修复右侧
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-11 23:30
丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨涪陵榨菜(002507.SZ) [Table_Title] 涪陵榨菜 2025 年三季报点评:新品上架持续推 进,公司进入修复右侧 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 涪陵榨菜公布 2025 年三季报,公司 2025 前三季度营业总收入 19.99 亿元(同比+1.84%);归 母净利润 6.73 亿元(同比+0.33%),扣非净利润 6.15 亿元(同比-3.43%)。公司 2025Q3 营业 总收入 6.86 亿元(同比+4.48%);归母净利润 2.32 亿元(同比+4.34%),扣非净利润 2 亿元 (同比-5.63%)。另外,公司公告披露决定终止收购味滋美。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 董思远 陈硕旸 SAC:S0490517070016 SAC:S0490524020002 SFC:BQK487 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 涪陵榨菜(002507.SZ) cjzqdt11111 [Table_Tit ...
三诺生物(300298):业绩符合预期,收入增长提速
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-11 23:30
丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨三诺生物(300298.SZ) [Table_Title] 业绩符合预期,收入增长提速 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 业绩符合预期,利润短期受专利费授权费影响有所扰动。2025 年第三季度公司收入 11.90 亿 元,同比增长 13.40%;归母净利润为 0.30 亿元,同比减少 47.55%;净利润大幅下滑主要是 受公司美国子公司 Trividia Health 与罗氏的交叉专利授权的费用影响,根据协议 THI 需向罗氏 支付 1,900 万美元,对公司 2025 年第三季度净利润的影响金额人民币为 1.36 亿元,剔除该影 响,公司 2025 年第三季度实现归母净利润为 1.05 亿元同比增长 82%,2025 年前三季度归母 净利润同比增长 12%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 彭英骐 徐晓欣 SAC:S0490524030005 SAC:S0490522120001 SFC:BUZ392 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMs ...