Fiscal Performance - In 2025, the general fiscal revenue was CNY 21.6 trillion, down 1.7% year-on-year, while general fiscal expenditure was CNY 28.7 trillion, up 1.0% year-on-year[6] - The cumulative general fiscal revenue for 2025 was down 2.9% compared to the budgeted growth of 0.2%, while expenditure was up 3.7%, below the budgeted 9.3%[8] - The completion rate of the first account expenditure in 2025 was the lowest since 2003 at 96.8%, with infrastructure spending significantly reduced[8] December 2025 Insights - In December 2025, general fiscal revenue fell by 19% year-on-year, primarily due to a significant drop in central non-tax revenue, which decreased by 51%[8] - General fiscal expenditure in December 2025 saw a marginal decline of 0.4% year-on-year, but showed signs of acceleration, particularly in infrastructure and service consumption[8] - The central government’s non-tax revenue in December 2025 was notably impacted by a high base effect from 2024, where actual revenue was 327% of the budgeted amount[8] Future Outlook - For Q1 2026, fiscal policies are expected to remain proactive, focusing on growth and debt management, with major economic provinces leading the efforts[8] - The issuance of government bonds in January 2026 is projected to reach CNY 1.1 trillion, an increase of CNY 0.2 trillion year-on-year, with early initiation of new special bonds contributing to this growth[8] - The fiscal strategy aims to support economic stability and growth through increased infrastructure and service sector investments[8]

行业研究丨专题报告丨家用电器 [Table_Title] xTool：全球科技工具品牌，龙头地位持续巩固 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司专注于全球科技工具市场，产品以激光工具为核心，并拓展至材料打印领域。行业层面， 全球市场规模预计保持快速增长，其中激光类稳步渗透，材料打印类（尤其 DTF）增长显著。 公司地位稳固，在激光市场及核心细分领域份额持续领先，并快速切入材料打印市场，位列全 球前三。财务方面，公司收入稳健增长，毛利率保持较好水平。整体来看，公司已在高增长赛 道建立领先优势，具备持续发展的基础。综上，建议把握科技工具优质赛道及产业链投资机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈亮 SAC：S0490517070017 SFC：BUW408 丨证券研究报告丨 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 家用电器 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] xTool：全球科技工具品牌，龙头地位持续巩固 [Table_Summary2] 公司概览：全球化布局深化，产品矩阵持续丰富 xTool 是一家全球消费科技品牌 ...

[Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨深度报告丨宁德时代（300750.SZ） [Table_Title] 迈向应用创新，再造宁德时代——换电篇 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 从宁德时代近两年的战略方向看，动力、储能电池持续的材料体系研发、极限制造创新仍是重 点和基础，与之同时面向市场应用的集成产品、商业模式创新有被更多的提及。因此，我们将 宁德时代的研究重点，从锂电池制造转向应用创新布局，关注换电与车电分离、滑板底盘、数 据中心储能集成、零碳电网等业务进展。本篇报告将重点介绍宁德时代的换电战略。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490522030001 SAC：S0490520090003 SFC：BQK482 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 22 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 邬博华 曹海花 叶之楠 [Table_scodeMsg2] 宁德时代（300750.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Tab ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the heavy-duty truck industry is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The electrification of heavy-duty trucks in China is accelerating due to policy support and economic drivers, with the penetration rate of new energy heavy-duty trucks expected to reach 33.0% by 2026, an increase of 4.1 percentage points year-on-year. The average battery capacity is projected to reach 498 KWh, a year-on-year growth of 15.6% [3][8] - Traditional automakers are expected to see a recovery in both market position and profitability in their new energy heavy-duty truck businesses, with a strong recommendation for China National Heavy Duty Truck Group [8] Summary by Sections Historical Review - The development of new energy heavy-duty trucks in China can be divided into two phases: 1. **2021-2023**: Policy introduction phase, where the penetration rate rose from 0.7% in 2021 to 5.0% in 2023 2. **2024 onwards**: Market-driven phase, with sales expected to reach 78,000 units in 2024 and a penetration rate of 12.9%, increasing to 231,000 units and 28.9% in 2025 [6][18] Market Outlook - By 2026, the penetration rates for different types of heavy-duty trucks are expected to vary: - **Tractor Trucks**: 44% penetration rate with an average battery capacity of 528 KWh - **Specialized Trucks**: 21% penetration rate, with concrete mixer trucks contributing significantly - **Cargo Trucks**: Low penetration due to weight issues, but potential policy changes may drive growth - **Dump Trucks**: Expected to reach a 50% penetration rate, especially in mining applications [7][8][40] Investment Recommendations - The trend towards electrification in heavy-duty trucks is irreversible, with traditional manufacturers likely to regain market share and profitability as new energy trucks become more prevalent. The report emphasizes the importance of China National Heavy Duty Truck Group as a key player in this transition [8][27]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [10] Core Insights - The operational cycle of the company is improving, with inventory returning to a healthy state, and it is expected to return to growth in 2026. The company is currently in a recovery adjustment period due to public sentiment impacts in 2025, which has led to increased marketing and promotional spending. The upgrade of the 0 series soy sauce in September 2025 positions the company to lead the industry in clean label transformation [3][9] - The company is a proponent of healthy soy sauce in China, focusing on products like soy sauce, vinegar, cooking wine, and oyster sauce, with a core positioning of "clean ingredient list" and "0 additives." Since its listing in 2016, the company has experienced rapid growth, with a CAGR of 18.29% in revenue and 19.92% in net profit from 2017 to 2024. However, in the past two years, revenue and profit have been under pressure due to product structure adjustments and negative public sentiment [6][18] - The soy sauce industry is entering a mature development stage, seeking structural growth opportunities driven by health and functionality. The industry is focusing on "0 additives," reduced salt, and organic products, with a trend towards higher value-added products supported by health positioning [6][34] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leader in the "healthy seasoning" sector, emphasizing clean ingredients and zero additives. It has undergone significant adjustments in product structure and channel strategies due to recent challenges, but is poised for recovery and growth [6][18] Market Dynamics - The soy sauce market is approximately 900 billion yuan, with a CAGR of about 4.1% from 2016 to 2025. The market is characterized by stable volume growth and declining price growth, indicating a need for structural optimization [34][36] - The competitive landscape is stabilizing with one dominant player, Hai Tian, holding over 20% market share. The company aims to leverage its differentiated brand positioning to improve its market ranking [7][34] Financial Performance - The company has faced significant revenue and profit declines in 2025 due to negative public sentiment, but is expected to recover as inventory issues are resolved and new product launches take place. The projected EPS for 2025 and 2026 is 0.30 yuan and 0.41 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 33 and 25 [9][11] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively expanding into new channels, including e-commerce and new retail formats, to drive revenue growth. The recent product upgrades and marketing strategies are expected to enhance brand recognition and improve operational efficiency [8][9]

行业研究丨深度报告丨食品、饮料与烟草 [Table_Title] 海外龙头巡礼系列报告（一）：獭祭——小而散 市场下的成功突围者 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 獭祭源于山口县曾经的一家小酒厂、旭酒造，1984 年樱井博志接手时，酒厂收入不足 1 亿日 元，2023 年獭祭销售额已达 174 亿日元，且海外销售额占比达 30%，过去 40 年旭酒造实现 突破式的跨越。但过去几十年日本清酒市场持续萎缩，在一个总量较小、集中度较低的赛道中， 獭祭依然实现成功突围，我们总结来看，其成功有赖于以下几点关键原因：①工艺上由传统"酒 师"文化向专业科学进化；②产品上持续创新，追求极致；③渠道上围绕核心市场，重视专业 渠道；④营销上在一些重大时刻获得展示机会，提升全球知名度。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 朱梦兰 董思远 SAC：S0490522050003 SAC：S0490517070016 SFC：BQK487 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 21 %% %% %% %% research.95579. ...

行业研究丨深度报告丨电子设备、仪器和元件 [Table_Title] 产业技术投资泡沫的五个视角——生成式 AI 与 历史技术革命 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 生成式 AI 发展至今，带来了巨大的技术变革，也创造了供应链巨大的投资机会。AI 泡沫的论 调不时出现，成为悬在产业链估值头顶的达摩克利斯之剑。 本文尝试从叙事、盈利、资金、壁垒、估值的五个角度出发，结合历史上的产业技术革命和资 本市场的运行规律，来评估 AI 当前的泡沫程度。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 杨洋 谢尔曼 SAC：S0490517070012 SAC：S0490518070003 SFC：BUW100 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 32 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 电子设备、仪器和元件 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 产业技术投资泡沫的五个视角——生成式 2] AI 与 历史技术革命 [Table_Summary2] 产业技术泡沫：新时代的基座，在灰烬上建立 站 ...

市场策略丨深度报告 [Table_Title] AI 革命和泡沫分析框架（一）：AI 的 1998—— 科网泡沫再审视 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本文对科网泡沫复盘，希望以史为鉴，对当下 AI 产业演进过程提出一些思考。衡量泡沫是否存 在主要有八大维度，可以分为三个层面。宏观：叙事催化剂和杠杆水平；产业：故事性、应用 场景、未来竞争格局、商业模式；市场：经验不足的投资者、纯粹可投资标的。从宏观环境整 体来讲，美国当前的经济环境不及科网泡沫时期，流动性相比当时更好。产业端来讲，商业模 式能否闭环，企业能否产生最终盈利是市场最为关注的问题。而市场端来看，当前估值水平和 市场构成相比科网泡沫时期更优。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 26 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title AI 革命和泡沫分析框架（一 2] ）：AI 的 1998—— 科网泡沫 ...

中国经济丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 房价回暖之前，消费何处掘金？ ——消费第二曲线系列之一 research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 通过研究房价与消费的关系，我们得到 3 个核心结论：1）当前房价下行可能仍对消费有压制 作用，但影响集中在东南沿海地区。2）当前国内仍处在居民缩表前期，但区域分化大。中部、 西部、东北地区消费受缩表影响小，即便房价下行，居民消费也仍可能随经济景气复苏率先改 善。3）消费表现更好的区域，服务消费复苏势头良好，消费表现更弱区域，服务消费增速也相 对有韧性。地产周期后半段，服务消费强度或持续高于耐用品消费。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 31 %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title 房价回暖之前，消费何处掘金？ 2] ——消费第二曲线系列之一 [Table_Summary2] 当前，为什么需要观察房价与消费的关系 宏观层 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the optical chip industry is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Viewpoints - Optical chips are a high-value segment within the optical communication industry, characterized by significant technical barriers and value [3][9] - The industry predominantly adopts the IDM model, which covers the entire process from design to manufacturing and testing, leading to high entry barriers [7][50] - Domestic optical chip manufacturers are expected to benefit from a combination of industry growth, structural opportunities in silicon photonics, and increased market share from domestic replacements [8][9] Summary by Sections Optical Chips - Optical chips are the core active components in optical communication, determining the quality, speed, and energy efficiency of optical signal transmission [6][21] - The transition from traditional discrete solutions to high-integration silicon photonics solutions is accelerating, driven by the limitations of existing technologies [6][36] Manufacturers of Optical Chips - Manufacturers typically use the IDM model, which enhances collaboration with downstream module manufacturers and allows for rapid iteration and optimization of processes [7][50] - The industry faces significant barriers in R&D iteration, process yield, and capacity expansion, with domestic manufacturers focusing on the CW light source route due to its shorter production chain and better yield optimization [7][9] AI and Connectivity Demand - The demand for optical chips is expected to rise due to the commercialization of AI by North American cloud providers, leading to increased capital expenditures and a positive feedback loop in computing power investments [8][9] - The supply side is constrained by a concentrated upstream InP substrate market and long expansion cycles, with a predicted 25%-30% shortfall in optical chips [8] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading domestic CW light source manufacturers, particularly Shijia Photon, and paying attention to Yuanjie Technology [9][12]