Workflow
icon
Search documents
成都银行(601838):利息加速增长,做实资产质量指标
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-31 05:12
丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨成都银行(601838.SH) [Table_Title] 利息加速增长,做实资产质量指标 ——2025 年三季报点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 前三季度营收同比增速 3.0%,归母净利润增速 5.0%。利息净收入同比增长 8.2%,保持快速 增长,反映信贷高速扩表+息差降幅收窄;非息净收入受债市波动影响下降 16.5%。资产端持 续扩张,总资产较期初增长 10.8%,贷款增长 14.2%,企业贷款保持高增长。不良率环比+2BP 至 0.68%,但关注率环比下降 7BP 至 0.37%,预计收紧不良认定标准做实资产质量指标,拨 备覆盖率 433%,环比-20pct 仍处于高位。展望未来,中长期维度信贷市占率预计持续提升, 息差企稳回升有望带动营收增速上行。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC:S0490521120002 SAC:S0490524070002 SFC:BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table ...
青岛银行(002948):利润维持高增速,质效提升驱动价值重估
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-31 05:12
[Table_Author] 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨青岛银行(002948.SZ) [Table_Title] 利润维持高增速,质效提升驱动价值重估 ——2025 年三季报点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 青岛银行前三季度营收增速 5.0%,归母净利润增速 15.5%,利润维持高增速。利息净收入同 比增长 12.0%,核心源于信贷高速扩表。非息收入同比下降 10.7%,主要受三季度债市走弱影 响。资产端稳健扩张,总资产较期初增长 11.0%,贷款增长 10.2%,对公贷款高增 14.6%拉动 信贷扩表。三季度净息差较 2024 全年降 5BP 至 1.68%,负债成本加速下降缓释息差压力。不 良率和拨备覆盖率持续改善,达到上市以来最优水平。三年战略收官年,质效提升逻辑加速验 证。目前 A/H 股 2025 年 PB 估值 0.72x/0.56x,PE 估值 6.2x/4.8x ,维持"买入"评级。 分析师及联系人 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC:S0490521120002 SAC:S0490524070002 SFC:BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明 ...
ETF掘金图鉴系列报告之二:信用债ETF运作机制拆解
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-31 02:21
固收资产配置丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 信用债 ETF 运作机制拆解 ——ETF 掘金图鉴系列报告之二 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本篇报告为"ETF 掘金图鉴"系列报告的第二篇,主要研究信用债 ETF 的产品设计与运行机 制,以及分析其投资逻辑。信用债 ETF 采用抽样复制指数方式以实现跟踪,指数表现出年化收 益率分化、久期差异化明显的特征,可覆盖从短期到中长期的多样化需求。同时,PCF 清单、 做市商和回购制度实现了产品较高的透明度和可交易性。投资价值方面,信用债 ETF 兼具分散 风险和流动性等优势,同时一二级市场折溢价差带来套利机会,但补券成本和交易费用需审慎 评估。整体而言,信用债 ETF 在资产配置与流动性管理中的作用正日益凸显。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC:S0490524080003 SAC:S0490524120005 SFC:BVN394 SFC:BVZ968 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 请阅读最后评级 ...
海力士指引26年位元需求进一步提升,持续看好本轮存储大周期
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-31 00:45
丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨电子设备、仪器和元件 [Table_Title] 海力士指引 26 年位元需求进一步提升,持续看 好本轮存储大周期 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 据海力士三季报指引,伴随着 AI 推理端的持续落地,2026 年 DRAM/NAND Flash 位元需求相 较于 25 年呈进一步增长之势。我们认为存储行业逻辑正在完成从供给端控产驱动的涨价周期 到 AI 需求拉动下的供给缺口逐步形成的产业大周期。当成长逻辑持续占优之际,持续看好存储 行业的确定性机遇。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 杨洋 张梦杰 SAC:S0490517070012 SAC:S0490523120002 SFC:BUW100 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 电子设备、仪器和元件 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 海力士指引2]26 年位元需求进一步提升,持续看 好本轮存储大周期 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 据海力士三季报指引,伴随着 AI 推理端的持续落地,2026 年 DRAM/NAND Flash 位元需求相 较于 25 年呈进一步增长之势。我们认 ...
鸿路钢构(002541):吨经营利润改善明显,现金流大幅流入
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-30 23:31
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company reported a third-quarter revenue of 5.367 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.50%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 208 million yuan, down 8.51% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 121 million yuan, an increase of 0.59% year-on-year [2][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a production volume of 3.6102 million tons in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.06%. In the third quarter alone, production was 1.248 million tons, up 9.0% year-on-year. The sales volume for the third quarter was estimated at 1.185 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6% [12]. - The order amount for the first three quarters was 22.267 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.56%, with the third-quarter order amount at 7.887 billion yuan, up 4.19% year-on-year [12]. - The gross profit per ton improved significantly, with a third-quarter gross profit of 506 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan per ton compared to the same period last year. This improvement is attributed to rising steel prices and increased production scale [12]. Cash Flow - The operating cash flow for the third quarter showed significant improvement, with a net inflow of 575 million yuan, an increase of 203 million yuan year-on-year. The cash collection ratio was 101.26%, up 4.62 percentage points year-on-year [12]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a continued rise in profitability due to improved usage of robotic technology and a stabilization in steel prices. The report highlights a positive trend in steel prices, indicating a low risk of significant declines [12]. - The management reform and increased application of welding robots are anticipated to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, with expectations of improved robot usage rates by the end of the year [12].
海油发展(600968):业绩受非经损益影响,Q3毛利率创历史新高
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-30 23:31
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 33.947 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.81%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.853 billion yuan, up 6.11% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 2.860 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.54%. In the third quarter alone, revenue was 11.350 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.75% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.023 billion yuan, down 4.51% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 1.027 billion yuan, an increase of 5.52% year-on-year. The gross margin for the third quarter reached a historical high [2][5][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's gross margin and net margin were 16.16% and 8.62%, respectively, both achieving historical highs. The gross margin for the third quarter was 17.79%, a year-on-year increase of 2.35 percentage points [12]. - The decrease in non-recurring income led to a decline in quarterly performance. In the third quarter of 2025, non-recurring gains and losses totaled -0.03 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.02 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to asset damage from a typhoon [12]. Business Outlook - The company's profitability is closely related to the production levels of CNOOC, demonstrating strong resilience to oil price fluctuations. The company has maintained stable gross margins even during periods of oil price volatility, benefiting from increased oil and gas production [12]. - The outlook for offshore oil services is positive, driven by national energy security initiatives and increased capital expenditures by CNOOC, which are expected to benefit the offshore oil service industry [12]. Earnings Forecast - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 0.41 yuan, 0.45 yuan, and 0.49 yuan, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios based on the closing price on October 28, 2025, are 9.53X, 8.58X, and 7.89X [12].
宁波银行(002142):业绩加速,息差企稳,不良生成率连续显著改善
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-30 23:31
丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨宁波银行(002142.SZ) [Table_Title] 业绩加速,息差企稳,不良生成率连续显著改善 ——2025 年三季报点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 前三季度营收同比增速 8.3%,归母净利润增速 8.4%。利息净收入同比 11.8%,持续高增源于 规模增长强劲+息差环比企稳。非利息净收入同比增速 0.3%,降速主要债市震荡影响,手续费 净收入增速大幅上行至29.3%,预计财富管理业务收入明显增长。Q3末贷款较期初增长16.3%, 其中一般对公贷款大幅增长 30.8%。前三季度净息差 1.76%,较上半年稳定,Q3 末不良率稳 定于 0.76%,拨备覆盖率环比回升 2pct 至 376%,连续两个季度回升;前三季度不良净生成率 下行至 0.93%,单季不良生成率已连续两个季度回落,预计零售风险压力趋于稳定。 research.95579.com 1 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC:S0490521120002 SAC:S0490524070002 SFC:BUT916 请阅读 ...
裕同科技(002831):盈利水平持续提升,看好收入增长提速
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-30 23:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company's revenue and profit levels are continuously improving, with expectations for accelerated revenue growth [4][5]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 12.601 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.181 billion yuan, up 6% year-on-year [2][4]. - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.726 billion yuan, a decrease of 4% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 2% to 627 million yuan [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s gross margin, net profit margin, and deductive net profit margin improved by 1.2, 0.7, and 0.8 percentage points year-on-year in Q3 2025, respectively [10]. - The company’s expenses in sales, management, R&D, and financial costs showed varied changes, with financial costs rising due to exchange losses [10]. International Strategy - The company has been advancing its international strategy since 2010, establishing production bases in over 40 cities across 10 countries, including Vietnam, India, and Mexico [10]. - The overseas revenue contribution is expected to increase from over 20% currently to potentially over 40% in the future, with higher profit margins compared to domestic operations [10]. Shareholder Returns - The company has implemented a high cash dividend policy, with cumulative cash dividends amounting to 3.79 billion yuan and share buybacks totaling 870 million yuan since its listing [10]. - The projected dividend yield for 2025 is over 6%, with a target compound annual growth rate for net profit attributable to shareholders set at 10% [10]. Market Opportunities - The company is expanding its customer base beyond traditional sectors like consumer electronics and tobacco, targeting industries such as smart hardware, cosmetics, and healthcare [10]. - The company’s market share remains low, indicating significant growth potential in the packaging industry, which is characterized by low entry barriers and increasing competition [10].
洪城环境(600461):2025Q3扣非归母净利润同比增长7.18%,资本开支下行保障高分红
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-30 23:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.738 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.41%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 324 million yuan, up 2.13% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items grew by 7.18% [2][6] - The decline in capital expenditure, which was 662 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 compared to 1.58 billion yuan in the same period last year, supports a high dividend payout ratio [2][13] - The ongoing market-oriented reforms in public utilities are expected to enhance the company's profitability and improve cash flow [13] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 5.426 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.85% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 933 million yuan, an increase of 1.18%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 929 million yuan, up 2.60% [6] - In Q3 2025, the company’s revenue was 1.738 billion yuan, with a net profit of 324 million yuan, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items also at 324 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 7.18% [6] Cost Management - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 38.1%, an increase of 0.21 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in accounting for pipeline depreciation [13] - The operating expense ratio for Q3 2025 was 12.3%, down 1.07 percentage points year-on-year, indicating effective cost control [13] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - The cash collection ratio for Q3 2025 was 87.8%, a decrease of 13.3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to slower payment from local governments [13] - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2025 was 981 million yuan, a decrease of 28.7% year-on-year, while capital expenditures were significantly reduced [13] Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing reforms in the public utility sector, which may enhance profitability and cash flow [13] - Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.23 billion, 1.27 billion, and 1.30 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 9.55, 9.20, and 8.99 [13]
豪悦护理(605009):2025Q3点评:收入环比提速,盈利略承压
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-30 23:30
丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨豪悦护理(605009.SH) [Table_Title] 豪悦护理 2025Q3 点评:收入环比提速,盈利略 承压 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司 2025 年前三季度实现营收/归母净利润/扣非净利润 27.18/2.03/1.94 亿元,同比+33%/- 31%/-33%;其中 2025Q3 实现营收/归母净利润/扣非净利润 9.58/0.55/0.48 亿元,同比+32%/- 45%/-50%。代工订单有所修复,自主品牌持续成长,盈利同比承压。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 豪悦护理(605009.SH) cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 豪悦护理 2025Q3 2] 点评:收入环比提速,盈利 略承压 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 蔡方羿 米雁翔 SAC:S0490516060001 SAC:S0490520070002 SFC:BUV463 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% % ...