丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨纺织品、服装与奢侈品 [Table_Title] 纺织服装行业 2025Q1 业绩前瞻：品牌景气改 善，制造有待修复 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 品牌端，消费促进政策下 Q1 流水平稳修复，多数公司实现正增长，表现好于预期。细分子行业表现依 旧有所分化，中高端男装弹性较强增长表现较优，运动零售保持稳健增长，大众品牌亦实现增长回暖， 利润端则在差异化的控费水平和经营杠杆下有所分化。制造端，下游库存已至健康水平，叠加主要出口 国需求边际弱化，制造短期承压。需求端，Q1 美国和日本需求边际弱化。库存端，现大多数品牌及零 售商库存回至健康状态，但海外需求较弱，预计回补动能弱，Nike 复苏节奏延后进一步影响相关产业链 订单弹性。需求和库存两维度，制造β短期均有一定压力，关税预期或进一步压制制造表现。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于旭辉 魏杏梓 柯睿 SAC：S0490518020002 SAC：S0490524020003 SAC：S0490524110001 SFC：BUU942 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% resear ...

[Table_Summary] 中央及地方"消费券+服务提质"政策组合拳持续发力，直接拉动餐饮终端消费及上游供应链需 求。以速冻食品、调味品、啤酒为代表的标准化产品契合餐饮业降本增效趋势，B 端订单修复 弹性逐步扩大。在政策端持续加码餐饮消费券及居民消费意愿逐步修复的背景下，餐饮供应链 板块有望迎来供需双振的成长机遇，建议关注餐饮链板块受益标的。 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨食品、饮料与烟草 [Table_Title] "每食每刻"系列之（十二）：北京发放餐饮消 费券，关注后续政策发力 报告要点 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Author] 董思远 范晨昊 SAC：S0490517070016 SAC：S0490519100003 SFC：BQK487 中央及地方"消费券+服务提质"政策组合拳持续发力，直接拉动餐饮终端消费及上游供应链 需求。标准化产品契合餐饮业降本增效趋势，B 端订单修复弹性逐步扩大。在政策端持续加码 餐饮消费券及居民消费意愿逐步修复的背景下，餐饮供应链板块有望迎来供需双振的成长机 遇。 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 非农超预期，但难解关税忧虑 2] ——3 月美国非农就业数据点评 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 非农超预期，但难解关税忧虑 ——3 月美国非农就业数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 3 月，美国非农就业数据大幅低于预期，主要冬季寒潮过后部分服务业就业改善。家庭 调查数据来看，美国季调失业率升至 4.2%，高于预期水平，但保留 3 位小数来算 3 月较 2 月 失业率仅回升约 0.013%，实际变动幅度较小。数据整体指向美国劳动力市场仍稳健，但特朗 普"对等关税"超预期落地背景下，即便 3 月非农就业数据稳健，也难以化解市场对于美国经 济前景的深切担忧。往前看，我们认为，美联储正处于决策窗口期："对等关税"的实际落地情 况，及其对经济的影响将是决定后续货币政策的关键。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 敬成宇 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 [Table_Summary2 ...

公司研究丨点评报告丨长城汽车（601633.SH） [Table_Title] 长城汽车 2025 年 3 月销量点评：销量近 10 万 辆，新能源增长明显 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 长城汽车 2025 年 3 月销量 9.8 万辆，同比-2.3%，环比+25.8%，其中出口销量 3.2 万辆，销 量占比达 32.5%，新能源销量 2.5 万辆，新能源乘用车销量占比达 32.5%。公司加速全球化布 局，坚定新能源转型，持续的新车周期有望推动公司销量与业绩改善。长期来看，公司四大拓 展战略打开销量长期增长空间，智能化转型开启全产业链盈利空间。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 王子豪 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524070004 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 长城汽车（601633.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 长城汽车 2022]5 年 3 月销量点评：销量近 10 万 辆，新能源增长明显 [Table_Summ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company has completed the registration procedures for the change of business scope, officially expanding its operations to include components related to robotics [2][10]. - The long-term strategy focuses on transitioning to new energy and enhancing lightweight product reserves, which is expected to improve the company's global supply capabilities and market position in the new energy lightweight sector [2][10]. - The company has seen a significant increase in new business orders, achieving 200% of its annual target of 26 billion yuan in 2023, with a total of 137 and 243 designated projects in the automotive metal and pipeline sectors, respectively [10]. Summary by Sections Business Expansion - The company has expanded its business scope to include the research and sales of key components such as sensors, intelligent joints, and robotic arms, currently in the product development and customer engagement phase [10]. Financial Performance - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.10 yuan per share (before tax) for the first half of 2024, which represents 23.56% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for that period [10]. - Expected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 630 million, 800 million, and 900 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 25.0X, 19.8X, and 17.5X [10]. Market Position - The company is actively improving its overseas operations and optimizing its global layout, enhancing management capabilities in its foreign subsidiaries [10]. - The company is positioned to enter a profit release cycle, with a focus on battery boxes and hot-formed products, which are expected to have significant growth potential in the medium to long term [10].

[Table_Title] 双主业稳固，先进电子材料持续突破 报告要点 丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨圣泉集团（605589.SH） [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2024 年年报，2024 年实现收入 100.2 亿元（同比+9.9%），实现归属净利润 8.7 亿元 （同比+9.9%），实现归属扣非净利润 8.3 亿元（同比+12.7%）。其中 Q4 单季度实现收入 28.7 亿元（同比+18.1%，环比+13.6%），归属净利润 2.9 亿元（同比-6.6%，环比+15.2%），扣非 归属净利润 2.8 亿元（同比-4.5%，环比+23.4%），拟 10 股派 5.5 元，共派发现金红利 4.5 亿 元。此外，公司发布 2025 年一季度业绩预告，预计实现归母净利润 2.00-2.15 亿元，同比+45.6% 至+56.5%，实现扣非归母净利润 1.83-1.98 亿元，同比+45.0%至+56.9%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马太 SAC：S0490516100002 SFC：BUT911 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research. ...

请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 l 证券研究报告 l 战略数据研究丨深度报告 港股超额行情复盘之 AH 红利择时篇 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本轮港股红利成长超额对标 A 股风格的行情启动于 2024 年 11 月份，由 AI 带来的产业机会成 为科技行情爆发的催化剂，但是港股红利的相对收益或更多来自于资金面变化。本篇从风格比 较出发，基于港股通开通后港股大幅跑赢 A 股的历史阶段进行复盘，寻找 AH 配置择时的重要 线索，并重点聚焦于红利风格配置差异，梳理港股红利组合测算容量空间及 AH 红利择时。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈洁敏 SAC：S0490518120005 SFC：BUT348 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 28 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title2] 港股超额行情复盘之 AH 红利择时篇 [Table_Summary2] 五维度比较看，AH 溢价来自何处 A 股和港股市场价差来源，可以归结于基本面、产业结构、流动性、投资者结构和交易制度等 五大维度。港股超额行情的启动和结束多源 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 联合研究丨公司点评丨新天然气（603393.SH） [Table_Title] 量价齐升主业稳健，气-油-煤全布局未来可期 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2024 年年报。2024 年营业总收入达到 37.77 亿元，同比增长 7.4%，归母净利润为 11.85 亿元，同比增长 13.12%。其中单四季度营业总收入为 8.12 亿元，同比下降 16.81%，归 母净利润为 3.03 亿元，同比下降 18.19%。煤层气销售量价同比均实现提升，主业发展持续稳 健；竞得新疆三塘湖矿区七号勘查区探矿权，进一步夯实上游资源储备；通过"强链、延链和 补链"战略，有望构筑和夯实"天然气全产业链化"。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 魏凯 张韦华 王岭峰 司旗 SAC：S0490520080009 SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490521080001 SAC：S0490520120001 SFC：BUT964 SFC：BQT627 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 新天然气（603393 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 关税靴子落地，何去何从？ ——美国对等关税政策点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 对等关税靴子落地，其政策框架为"10%基准关税/个性化对等关税"。美国将汇率操纵和贸易 壁垒纳入各国对美关税考量，个性化对等关税幅度大超市场预期。但用各国"对美贸易逆差额 /对美出口额"得到的比值，和美国公布的各国对美关税税率较为接近。聚焦中国来看，若此次 披露的对华 34%对等税率落地，则美对华关税税率将达到 64.9%。这或将冲击我国出口和经 济，稳增长必要性提升。落地资产配置：1）看多黄金；2）宽松或在路上，看多债券；3）短期 内需相关板块是潜在受益者；4）长期看，技术含量高、价格弹性低的行业相对受益。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 黄帅 敬成宇 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 关税靴子落地，何去何从？ 2] ——美国对等关税政策点评 [Table_Summary2] ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.012 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.812 billion yuan, achieving a turnaround from losses [2][4] - The strong performance in the gaming business is attributed to the successful launches of new games such as "Start Your Journey, Muffin" and "Heart Town," which significantly boosted revenue and profit margins [8] - The TapTap platform continues to benefit from high-demand self-developed games and a recovery in game advertising demand, leading to sustained user growth and the release of commercial potential [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.012 billion yuan, with a net profit of 0.812 billion yuan and an adjusted net profit of 0.877 billion yuan, marking a return to profitability [2][4] - For the second half of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.792 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.6%, and a net profit of 0.606 billion yuan, also returning to profitability [4] Gaming Business - The gaming revenue for the second half of 2024 increased by 106.8% year-on-year to 1.95 billion yuan, with a significant rise in the average monthly paying user count [8] - The gross margin for the gaming business improved to 64.6%, up 18.6 percentage points year-on-year, driven by the strong performance of self-developed games [8] TapTap Platform - TapTap's user base in China grew by 19.1% year-on-year to 44.85 million MAU, while international MAU reached 5 million [8] - The revenue from the TapTap platform for the second half of 2024 was 844 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.5% [8] Operational Efficiency - Marketing expenses increased by 31.2% year-on-year due to new game launches, but the sales expense ratio decreased significantly, indicating improved operational efficiency [8] - The adjusted net profit margin for the second half of 2024 was 22.9%, a substantial improvement from previous periods [8] Future Prospects - The company is focusing on the progress of new game reserves and the empowerment of its AI platform, with several new games expected to launch in 2025 [8] - The company has completed the registration of its generative AI service TapSight and integrated AI features into the TapTap platform [8]