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四中全会胜利召开,建筑板块把握哪些方向?
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-27 09:33
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the construction and engineering sector [13]. Core Insights - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized the need to achieve economic and social development goals, highlighting the importance of stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations [7][11]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" proposes building a modern infrastructure system, improving rural infrastructure, and promoting regional coordinated development, with an expected investment demand exceeding 5 trillion yuan for urban underground pipeline construction [8]. - The report identifies significant opportunities in the construction sector, particularly in state-owned enterprises with low valuations and high dividends, as well as private enterprises engaged in new production capacities and clean energy projects [11]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The report discusses the macroeconomic situation and the need for steady growth to support economic operations, indicating that the long-term positive trend of the economy remains unchanged [7]. Infrastructure Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a modern infrastructure system, including the enhancement of transportation networks and the promotion of new urbanization, which is expected to create substantial domestic demand [8]. Energy Transition - The report outlines plans for a green and low-carbon energy transition, focusing on increasing non-fossil energy development and establishing a new power system to meet the growing electricity demand [9]. International Cooperation - The report highlights the importance of the Belt and Road Initiative, advocating for cooperation with partner countries on major projects and enhancing trade and investment ties [10]. Market Performance - The construction sector has shown resilience, with various sub-sectors experiencing positive growth, such as international engineering and construction consulting, which have outperformed the broader market indices [22][32].
解析二十届四中全会发布会:点亮科技树
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-27 09:15
Core Insights - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session concluded successfully, approving the "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" [1][4] - The impact of new productive forces on economic growth is gradually increasing, with ongoing industrial upgrades and a rise in technological advancements [1][4] Summary by Sections Modern Industrial System Construction - Traditional industries are expected to generate approximately 10 trillion yuan in market space over the next five years [4][11] - Key initiatives include optimizing traditional industries such as chemicals, machinery, and shipbuilding to enhance global competitiveness and developing advanced manufacturing clusters [4][11] - New and future industries will create significant market opportunities, with strategic clusters in new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low-altitude economy expected to emerge [4][11] High-Level Technological Self-Reliance - A new national system will be established to drive breakthroughs in key technologies like integrated circuits and high-end equipment [5][11] - Support for high-tech enterprises and SMEs will be strengthened, including increased R&D expense deductions [5][11] - A unified national data market will be developed to promote the integration of the real economy and digital economy [5][11] Strong Domestic Market Development - A robust domestic market is seen as a strategic foundation for modernization, with actions to boost consumption and optimize government investment structures [5][11] - Measures will be taken to unify market regulations and eliminate local protectionism [5][11] Outlook on Market Trends - A "slow bull" market is anticipated, with increased market activity driven by new productive forces and technological advancements [6][13] - Emerging tech industries are expected to create new demand through quality supply, particularly in AI and robotics [6][13] - Scarcity in supply will lead to valuation premiums, particularly in resource sectors influenced by energy transitions and geopolitical factors [6][13] - Overcapacity in certain industries is expected to clear, leading to valuation recovery in sectors like photovoltaics and chemicals [6][13]
361度(01361):零售数据稳健,超品大店拓张加速
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-27 09:15
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a 10% year-on-year growth in retail sales for its main brand and children's clothing in Q3 2025, with e-commerce sales increasing by approximately 20% [2][6]. - The company has accelerated the expansion of its super stores, with 93 super stores established by September 30, 2025, nearly doubling from Q2, which is expected to positively impact retail growth [9]. - The company anticipates strong performance in the 2026 ordering session, with a high certainty of revenue growth for 2025 and 2026. The product matrix is improving, and the exploration of new business formats like super stores is expected to contribute to a second growth driver [9]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - The company achieved a robust 10% year-on-year growth in offline retail for Q3 2025, with expectations of stable discounts and inventory levels [9]. Store Expansion - The rapid expansion of super stores is a key focus, with the number of stores significantly increasing, which is expected to enhance customer spending and complement traditional store formats [9]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.26 billion, 1.37 billion, and 1.50 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9, 8, and 8 times [9][11].
伟明环保(603568):设备新增订单同比高增,新材料业务开始贡献收入
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-27 09:15
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 5.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.13 billion yuan, an increase of 1.1%. In Q3 alone, the operating revenue was 1.98 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.3%, and the net profit was 710 million yuan, up 3.2% year-on-year [2][6]. - The environmental protection business continues to grow, and the new materials business has started to contribute revenue. The gross profit margin increased by 2 percentage points, and cash flow has significantly improved. The new energy materials project, Jiaman, has begun trial production and is expected to contribute incremental performance in the future [2][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total operating revenue of 5.88 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, down 2.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.13 billion yuan, up 1.1%. In Q3, the revenue was 1.98 billion yuan, a 2.3% increase year-on-year, and the net profit was 710 million yuan, a 3.2% increase year-on-year [2][6]. Business Segments - Environmental Protection Business: The company processed a total of 10.55 million tons of waste, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5%. The electricity generated was 2.816 billion kWh, up 5.11% year-on-year [12]. - Equipment Manufacturing and Services: The total new equipment orders in the first three quarters amounted to approximately 4.47 billion yuan, compared to 2.688 billion yuan in the same period of 2024. The company has also successfully developed new equipment and improved product coverage [12]. - New Materials Business: The Jiaman company achieved revenue of 326 million yuan in Q3, and the Weiming Shengqing company (not consolidated) reported revenue of 1.045 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with both companies achieving profitability [12]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The overall gross profit margin increased by 2.0 percentage points to 49.6%, attributed to operational cost reduction and increased heating supply. The cash flow improved significantly, with a cash collection ratio up 12.3 percentage points to 87.9% year-on-year [12]. Future Outlook - The Jiaman project in Indonesia is expected to contribute to future profits, with ongoing investments in lithium battery materials production capacity. The company plans to invest 80 million yuan for a 10% stake in a lithium carbonate project in Quanzhou, Fujian [12]. - The company has 56 operational waste incineration projects, and as these projects gradually come online, the company's performance is expected to improve. The dividend payout ratio is projected to increase to 30.07% in 2024, with potential for further increases as capital expenditures stabilize [12].
周观点:储能锂电行情延续,风能展指引乐观-20251027
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-27 06:14
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [3] Core Views - The main sectors are experiencing sustained prosperity, with energy storage demand exceeding expectations, optimistic guidance for wind energy, and a critical window for photovoltaic (PV) sector recovery [15][16] Summary by Sections 1. Photovoltaic - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need to address "involution" in competition, with ongoing consolidation in silicon material and energy consumption standards expected to support price stability [20][37] - Major companies like Tongwei Co. and GCL-Poly Energy are showing signs of recovery in Q3 profits, with Tongwei's revenue at CNY 24.09 billion, down 1.57% year-on-year, and GCL-Poly turning a profit of CNY 0.96 billion in Q3 [21][40] - The report recommends stocks benefiting from the anti-involution trend, including Tongwei Co., GCL-Poly, and LONGi Green Energy [15][39] 2. Energy Storage - The energy storage sector is entering a phase of increased volume and profitability, with a total of 3.45 GW/7.425 GWh of new projects announced in Sichuan [44] - The report highlights the positive outlook for large-scale storage systems and recommends leading companies like CATL and Aiko Solar [15][42] - The demand for household storage remains stable, with expectations for growth in overseas commercial storage markets [15][42] 3. Lithium Battery - The lithium battery sector is seeing an upward adjustment in demand expectations, with a focus on stable companies with price elasticity in battery and anode segments [15][16] - Key recommendations include CATL, EVE Energy, and companies involved in solid-state battery technologies [15][39] 4. Wind Energy - The wind energy sector is entering a new cycle of prosperity, with a focus on turbine and component leaders [15][16] - Companies like Goldwind and Mingyang Smart Energy are highlighted for their recovery in profitability and export potential [15][39] 5. Power Equipment - The report notes the approval of new ultra-high voltage projects and the growth of digitalization in the power grid, with recommendations for companies like Sifang Co. and XJ Electric [15][39] - The sector is expected to benefit from ongoing technological advancements and project approvals [15][39] 6. New Directions - The report emphasizes the potential in AIDC and robotics sectors, with companies like Sihai Technology and Megmeet Electric highlighted for their growth prospects [15][39] - The focus is on technological advancements and market opportunities in these emerging fields [15][39]
食健谈(第2期):(NMN/NR)NAD+功能及产业观察
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-27 05:44
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [8] Core Insights - NAD+ is a crucial coenzyme involved in fundamental life processes, with its levels declining during aging, leading to increased interest in NAD+ supplements like NMN and NR for anti-aging solutions [2][4][5] - The NAD+ market is driven by the growing demand for anti-aging products, with significant players like Swisse, H&H International, and Goldenway actively participating in the sector [7][27] - Regulatory environments vary across regions, with the U.S. showing signs of loosening regulations, while China maintains strict approval processes for NAD+ related supplements [6][26] Summary by Sections NAD+ as an Important Coenzyme - NAD+ is present in all active cells and plays a role in metabolism, energy synthesis, and DNA repair [4][17] - The decline of NAD+ levels is linked to aging, making its supplementation a key focus in the health product industry [5][20] Regulatory Environment - In the U.S., there are indications of potential regulatory easing for NAD+ supplements, particularly NMN, while NR remains stable in the market [6][26] - The EU is cautiously opening up, with NR approved as a "novel food" and NMN undergoing safety assessments [6][26] - China has the strictest regulations, with no local production allowed for NMN and NR due to ongoing debates regarding their clinical efficacy [6][26] Market Players and Product Development - Key companies like Goldenway are expected to produce around 500 tons of NMN by 2025, while Swisse and other brands are launching related products [7][27] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards the commercialization of NAD+ precursors, with NR and NMN leading the way in research and product availability [5][24]
政府债周报:下周新增债披露发行1719亿-20251027
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-27 05:13
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - 10月27日至11月2日地方债披露发行2706.82亿元,其中新增债1719.10亿元,再融资债987.72亿元 [1][5] - 10月20日至10月26日地方债共发行2472.28亿元,其中新增债1136.52亿元,再融资债1335.76亿元 [1][6] - 截至10月26日,第五轮第二批特殊再融资债共披露19934.09亿元,第六轮特殊再融资债共披露544.89亿元,下周新增披露245.84亿元;2025年特殊新增专项债共披露12379.89亿元,2023年以来共披露24258.52亿元 [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance - 10月20日至10月26日地方债净供给1658亿元,10月27日至11月2日地方债预告净供给1780亿元 [15] - 展示9月和10月地方债计划与实际发行情况,以及地方债近月发行计划与实际发行、净融资情况 [16][23] Local Bond Net Supply - 截至10月26日,新增一般债发行进度83.69%,新增专项债发行进度87.11% [28] - 截至10月26日,再融资债减地方债到期当年累计规模情况展示 [29] Special Bond Issuance Details - 截至10月26日,特殊再融资债统计情况展示,包括各轮发行额及各地区情况 [34] - 截至10月26日,特殊新增专项债统计情况展示,包括2023 - 2025年各地区情况 [37][38] Local Bond Investment and Trading - 展示地方债一二级利差及分区域二级利差情况 [41][42] - 展示新增专项债投向情况,最新月份统计只考虑已发行的新增债 [43]
流动性和机构行为周度观察:资金面迎来税期及跨月双重扰动-20251027
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-27 05:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the central bank had a net injection of funds through short - term reverse repurchase. On October 27, it conducted a 900 billion yuan MLF operation, with a net MLF injection of 200 billion yuan in October. The overall liquidity situation was loose [2][6]. - The liquidity remained loose, but there was some volatility pressure at the end of the month. The central bank showed a clear attitude of caring for liquidity, with a continuous net injection of medium - and long - term liquidity. However, at the end of October, due to the overlap of tax payments and cross - month disturbances, the cross - month liquidity was expected to be generally stable but with some volatility compared to the mid - month level [7]. - The net payment scale of government bonds increased. From October 20 to October 26, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds was about 214.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 74 billion yuan compared to the period from October 13 to October 19. From October 27 to November 2, the net payment scale of government bonds was expected to be 133.72 billion yuan [8]. - Most of the maturity yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) declined, while the 1 - year yield increased. The net financing amount of NCDs increased. From October 20 to October 26, 2025, the net financing amount of NCDs was about 345.4 billion yuan. From October 27 to November 2, the maturity repayment amount of NCDs was expected to be 564.3 billion yuan [9]. - The average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market decreased slightly. Based on the calculation results, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds decreased, while the duration of short - term pure bond funds increased [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Funds - **Central Bank Operations**: From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net injection of 7.81 billion yuan. On October 23, it conducted a 12 billion yuan treasury cash fixed - deposit operation. In October, the MLF matured at 700 billion yuan, and on October 27, the central bank conducted a 900 billion yuan MLF operation, with a net MLF injection of 200 billion yuan. The two medium - and long - term liquidity tools, namely, the repurchase and MLF, had a total net injection of 600 billion yuan in October [6]. - **Liquidity Situation**: From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.32% and 1.37% respectively, up 0.2 and 1.3 basis points compared to the period from October 13 to October 17. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.43% and 1.47% respectively, up 0.4 and down 0.4 basis points compared to the previous period. The overall liquidity was still relatively loose, but there was a slight increase in the weighted average rate of DR001 on October 24 [7]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From October 20 to October 26, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds was about 214.2 billion yuan, with the net financing amount of national bonds about 77.5 billion yuan and that of local government bonds about 136.7 billion yuan. From October 27 to November 2, the net payment scale of government bonds was expected to be 133.72 billion yuan, with the net financing of national bonds about - 53.94 billion yuan and that of local government bonds about 187.66 billion yuan [8]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Maturity Yields**: As of October 24, 2025, the 1 - month and 3 - month maturity yields of NCDs were 1.4950% and 1.5900% respectively, down 1.0 and 0.4 basis points compared to October 17. The 1 - year maturity yield was 1.6750%, up 0.9 basis points compared to October 17 [9]. - **Net Financing Amount**: From October 20 to October 26, 2025, the net financing amount of NCDs was about 345.4 billion yuan, higher than the 222.7 billion yuan in the period from October 13 to October 19. From October 27 to November 2, the maturity repayment amount of NCDs was expected to be 564.3 billion yuan [9]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - **Inter - bank Bond Market Leverage Ratio**: From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.56%, slightly lower than the 107.69% in the period from October 13 to October 17 [10]. - **Duration of Pure Bond Funds**: On October 24, 2025, the median duration (MA5) of medium - and long - term interest - style pure bond funds was 4.79 years, down 0.53 years week - on - week, at the 79.1% quantile since the beginning of 2022. The median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - style pure bond funds was 2.53 years, up 0.26 years week - on - week, at the 83.9% quantile since the beginning of 2022 [10].
科技板块回暖,电子均衡配置增强组合跑出超额
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-27 05:13
丨证券研究报告丨 金融工程丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 科技板块回暖,电子均衡配置增强组合跑出超额 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本周 A 股市场显现出结构性回暖的积极信号,主流宽基指数翻红,双创板块和微盘股领涨,中 证红利指数亦实现正收益;红利内细分板块来看,红利质量系列占优。从市场表现来看,本周 伴随业绩的陆续披露和政策预期的增强,TMT 板块情绪回暖,而必选消费表现相对较弱;电子 板块内部半导体分销、印制电路板占优。策略表现上,本周红利增强组合均未能跑赢中证红利 全收益,电子增强组合中,电子均衡配置增强组合跑赢电子全收益,周度收益跑至科技类基金 产品约 36%分位。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 冷旭晟 蔡文捷 覃川桃 SAC:S0490524080001 SAC:S0490523120001 SAC:S0490513030001 SFC:BUT353 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 主动量化产品周报(十二) cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 科技板块回暖,电子 2] 均衡配置增强组合跑 ...
智能眼镜系列(二):从康耐特独供夸克AI镜片,看镜片龙头成长潜力
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-27 05:08
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Viewpoints - Alibaba's first self-developed AI glasses, Quark AI glasses, have officially started pre-sale, marking the first smart glasses in China to integrate biometric payment [2][4] - Kangnate Optical, as the exclusive lens supplier for Quark AI glasses, leverages its strong industry background and innovative capabilities to establish a solid optical foundation for the product [2][4] - The Quark AI glasses utilize integrated custom lenses, which only support factory customization, giving lens manufacturers a significant advantage over smaller companies due to advanced technology [2][10] Summary by Sections Event Description - On October 24, Alibaba announced the pre-sale of its first self-developed AI glasses, Quark AI glasses, which are the first in China to feature integrated biometric payment [4] - Multiple smart glasses brands have recently made new moves, including Raybird Innovation's launch of the Air4 series, the world's first HDR-supported smart viewing glasses, and a strategic partnership between JD Technology and Rokid to launch a smart glasses shopping application [4] Product Features - The Quark AI glasses feature near-eye display capabilities, high-definition photography, and various audio functions, with a lightweight design of approximately 51g [6] - The glasses support multiple battery modes and innovative battery replacement design, enhancing user convenience [6] - The product is priced at 4,699 yuan for the non-prescription version, with various custom prescription lens options available at different price points [5] Market Outlook - The global smart glasses market is accelerating its iteration, with the potential to become the next big consumer electronics product, benefiting all segments of the supply chain, including optical lenses [10] - Kangnate Optical ranks second globally and first in China in resin lens sales volume for 2024, indicating strong growth potential for leading lens manufacturers [10]