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钨价再启上行,黄金维持增配
Changjiang Securities· 2025-06-02 11:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [10] Core Views - Short-term risk preferences are fluctuating, causing gold prices to oscillate, while the medium-term outlook continues to support a bullish market due to recession and interest rate cuts, alongside gold stocks being at a cyclical low, suggesting an increase in allocation during pullbacks [6][7] - Industrial metals are experiencing weakness due to a rebound in the US dollar and economic sluggishness, with copper and aluminum prices reflecting this trend [7] - Strategic metals such as rare earths and tungsten are expected to see a revaluation, with tungsten prices rising due to supply constraints and demand recovery [8] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have slightly declined this week, influenced by reduced risk aversion following tariff delays by the US. Economic data indicates weak personal consumption and inflation, sustaining expectations for interest rate cuts [6] - The report emphasizes that gold stocks are currently undervalued, suggesting a focus on companies like Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Zhaojin Mining, and Shandong Gold [6] Industrial Metals - Economic expectations are driving short-term fluctuations in copper and aluminum prices, with recent data showing a decrease in industrial profits and ongoing concerns about real estate and tariffs impacting demand [7] - The report notes a reduction in copper and aluminum inventories, indicating potential supply tightness, while suggesting that long-term monetary easing could support price recovery [7] Energy and Strategic Metals - The report highlights the importance of strategic metals, particularly rare earths and tungsten, which are poised for value reassessment due to supply control measures and rising demand [8] - Tungsten prices are expected to continue their upward trend due to limited new mining projects and a decrease in existing mine outputs [8] - The report also discusses cobalt and nickel, noting supply disruptions from Congo and the Philippines, which could support price stability [8]
大消费行业 2025 年 6 月金股推荐
Changjiang Securities· 2025-06-02 10:57
联合研究丨组合推荐 [Table_Title] 大消费行业 2025 年 6 月金股推荐 %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 %% %% 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 长江大消费九大优势行业(农业、零售、社服、汽车、纺服、轻工、食品、家电、医药)2025 年 6 月重点推荐金股。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈佳 李锦 赵刚 SAC:S0490513080003 SAC:S0490514080004 SAC:S0490517020001 SFC:BQT624 SFC:BUV258 SFC:BUX176 高伊楠 于旭辉 蔡方羿 SAC:S0490517060001 SAC:S0490518020002 SAC:S0490516060001 SFC:BUW101 SFC:BUU942 SFC:BUV463 董思远 陈亮 彭英骐 SAC:S0490517070016 SAC:S0490517070017 SAC:S0490524030005 SFC:BQK487 SFC:BUW408 SFC:BUZ392 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 11 ...
特海国际(09658):2025年一季度业绩点评:汇兑亏损下降,同店翻台率增长
Changjiang Securities· 2025-06-02 09:12
丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨特海国际(9658.HK) [Table_Title] 2025 年一季度业绩点评:汇兑亏损下降,同店 翻台率增长 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年一季度,公司实现营业收入 1.98 亿美元,同比增长 5.4%;实现扣非归母净利润 0.12 亿美元,受益于汇兑亏损下降,同比扭亏为盈。在餐饮出海浪潮下,特海国际以其独特的服务 形式、优越的品牌力、快速本土化的适应能力成为中餐出海品牌中的弄潮儿。在规模庞大且竞 争格局分散的国际餐饮市场中,特海国际具备广阔的发展空间。公司单店模型不断优化,新店 快速实现盈亏平衡,我们看好火锅行业在国际市场的发展空间以及公司未来的发展前景,预计 公司 2025-2027 年实现归母净利润 4406.37、5515.09、6340.58 万美元,维持"买入"评级。 分析师及联系人 SAC:S0490517020001 SAC:S0490520080013 SFC:BUX176 赵刚 杨会强 马健轩 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Author] 特海 ...
周期寻底阶段可能具备哪些特征?——房地产行业周度观点更新
Changjiang Securities· 2025-06-02 07:30
[Table_Title] 周期寻底阶段可能具备哪些特征? ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 [Tablary] 行业量价和投资等指标在过去三年已经历较大幅度的下降,决策层也提出了"止跌回稳"的政 策目标,参考国际经验,行业调整大概率将进入下半场,意味着寻底阶段逐步开启,这个阶段 可能具备哪些共性和差异化特征?1、总量指标的调整斜率将逐步收窄;2、中小城市核心区房 价已接近重置成本,且净租金回报率显著高于利率,而非核心区住房将面临长期折旧压力甚至 负资产化。3、部分新房中短期内具备上涨潜力:一是核心城市核心区域的高端化产品,主要受 益于市场化定价和产品力溢价,二是更多城市的高得房率产品,主要是对老库存的迭代。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 刘义 侯兆熔 SAC:S0490520040001 SFC:BUV416 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 周期寻底阶段可能具备哪些特征? 2] ——房地产行业周度观点更新 核心观点 止跌回稳的政策目标明显更为积极,市场预 ...
小米集团-W:业绩创历史新高,人车家全面突破-20250602
Changjiang Securities· 2025-06-02 07:20
港股研究丨公司点评丨小米集团-W(1810.HK) [Table_Title] 业绩创历史新高,人车家全面突破 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 5 月 27 日,小米集团公布 2025 年一季度业绩。2025Q1 小米集团实现营收 1112.93 亿元,同 比增长 47.4%;归母净利润 109.24 亿元,同比增长 161.2%;经调整净利润 106.76 亿元,同 比增长 64.5%。毛利率 22.8%,同比提升 0.5pct;归母净利率 9.8%,同比增长 4.3pct;经调 整净利润率 9.6%,同比提升 1.0pct。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 丨证券研究报告丨 杨洋 高伊楠 张永乾 小米集团-W(1810.HK) cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 业绩创历史新高,人车家全面突破 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Author] SAC:S0490517070012 SAC:S0490517060001 SAC:S0490524030002 SFC:BUW100 SFC:BUW101 [Table_Sum ...
IP 衍生品行业跟踪⑥:布鲁可新品表现优异,BFC 文化持续渗透驱动品牌成长
Changjiang Securities· 2025-06-02 07:20
联合研究丨行业点评 [Table_Title] IP 衍生品行业跟踪⑥:布鲁可新品表现优异, BFC 文化持续渗透驱动品牌成长 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近期,拼搭角色类玩具龙头布鲁可多款新产品上市,包括柯南奇迹版、变形金刚传奇版(声波)、 变形金刚群星版第 7 弹、变形金刚星辰版第 3 弹、奥特曼群星版第 14 弹、EVA 二号机升级版 等。布鲁可通过高频次、多价格带、全年龄段 SKU 开发体系,覆盖 9.9 元至 399 元全价格带, 并实现单 IP 多版本迭代(如奥特曼群星版已推至第 14 弹),持续巩固龙头地位。此外,布鲁可 持续推进线上创作赛、线下速拼赛和全球作品展,吸引"全龄段"玩家参与,以高频次、广覆 盖的赛事布局进行 BFC 文化的深度渗透,同时玩家创意有望赋能布鲁可自身产品创作。 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC:S0490516060001 SAC:S0490516080001 SAC:S0490522050001 SFC:BUV463 SFC:BUX177 杨云祺 章颖 ...
小米集团-W(01810):业绩创历史新高,人车家全面突破
Changjiang Securities· 2025-06-02 05:44
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi Group is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - Xiaomi Group reported record high performance in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 1112.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 109.24 billion yuan, up 161.2% year-on-year, and the adjusted net profit was 106.76 billion yuan, reflecting a 64.5% increase year-on-year. The gross margin was 22.8%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin attributable to shareholders was 9.8%, up 4.3 percentage points year-on-year [2][4] Summary by Sections Automotive Business - In Q1 2025, Xiaomi's automotive business generated revenue of 18.1 billion yuan, primarily driven by increased deliveries of the Xiaomi SU7. The SU7 series delivered 75,869 units, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.86%. The average selling price per vehicle was 238,600 yuan, up 2.01% quarter-on-quarter. The loss in this segment was 500 million yuan, significantly narrowed by 50.2% quarter-on-quarter. The gross margin for the automotive business was 23.2%, an increase of 2.72 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The company expects to reach a profit inflection point in 2025 for its automotive business, contributing positively to Xiaomi's core performance [6] Smartphone Business - Xiaomi's smartphone business revenue in Q1 2025 was 50.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, with a gross margin of 12.4%. Global smartphone sales reached 41.8 million units, a 3.0% year-on-year increase, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of growth. Xiaomi regained the top position in the Chinese market with a market share of 18.8%, a 40.0% year-on-year increase. The average selling price of Xiaomi smartphones was 1,210.5 yuan, up 5.7% year-on-year. High-end models accounted for 25% of total sales in China, up 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [6] IoT and Consumer Products - In Q1 2025, Xiaomi's IoT and consumer products business achieved revenue of 32.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.7%, with a gross margin of 25.2%, up 5.4 percentage points year-on-year. The revenue from smart home appliances more than doubled, indicating the initial success of the high-end strategy. Sales of major appliances saw significant growth, with air conditioning units sold exceeding 1.1 million, a year-on-year increase of over 65% [6]
休闲零食行业洞察之品类篇(一):中式零食崛起,魔芋品类出圈
Changjiang Securities· 2025-06-02 05:44
行业研究丨深度报告丨食品、饮料与烟草 [Table_Title] 休闲零食行业洞察之品类篇(一):中式零食崛 起,魔芋品类出圈 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Summary] 近年来,中式零食行业在消费升级、国潮文化驱动及供应链升级的合力下迎来爆发式增长。卫 龙美味、盐津铺子、劲仔食品为代表的制造型企业影响力突出。卫龙辣条品类龙头,通过"大 单品+多元化"打开第二增长曲线,渠道下沉至县域市场空间广阔;盐津铺子发力辣卤零食、蛋 类零食和深海零食等中式零食,"大魔王"、"蛋皇"、"31 度鲜"等品类品牌打造已初显成效; 劲仔食品小鱼产品份额稳固,近年来开发鹌鹑蛋、豆干、魔芋等新产品,拓宽品类边界。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 董思远 范晨昊 SAC:S0490517070016 SAC:S0490519100003 SFC:BQK487 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 22 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 食品、饮料与烟草 cjzqdt11111 报告要点 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_ ...
万星组网耀星河,商业航天竞九天
Changjiang Securities· 2025-06-02 05:20
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the aerospace and defense industry [10]. Core Insights - The global satellite internet market, driven by network coverage issues rather than pricing, has significant capacity to accommodate both domestic and international satellite operators, with the domestic satellite communication service market potentially reaching nearly 100 billion yuan annually [2][5]. - The commercial aerospace sector is characterized by market-driven activities, with the satellite industry being its core component. The competition for frequency resources is intensifying, leading to a more closed-loop industry structure [5][21]. - The demand for commercial aerospace capabilities is underpinned by the need for resilient space architectures and the integration of military and civilian space communications, creating a blue ocean market [6][21]. - Domestic satellite manufacturers are actively expanding production capacity and reducing costs, with new commercial rockets and launch sites alleviating supply pressures. The demand for low-cost access to space is expected to be met adequately [7][21]. - The report suggests prioritizing investment opportunities in the early stages of the commercial aerospace industry chain, particularly in space infrastructure construction [8][21]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The commercial aerospace industry is defined by profit-driven activities and follows market mechanisms, with the satellite industry as its main component. The U.S. National Space Policy emphasizes the encouragement of commercial aerospace development as a key goal [5][21]. - The global satellite industry revenue reached approximately $285.3 billion in 2023, with satellite manufacturing and applications being the primary contributors [31][34]. Demand and Growth Potential - There are approximately 50 million people in China who are not connected to the internet due to coverage issues, and globally, around 400 million lack communication infrastructure. The potential market for satellite wireless internet could reach nearly 1 trillion yuan annually by 2030 [6][21]. - The "Thousand Sails" and GW satellite constellations are projected to generate significant market space for satellite manufacturing and rocket launch services, exceeding 270 billion yuan and 80 billion yuan, respectively, by 2030 [6][21]. Production and Cost Reduction - Satellite manufacturing and launch costs are the highest in constellation construction. Domestic manufacturers are planning to achieve an annual production capacity of over 3,000 satellites, which will help reduce costs through mass production [7][21]. - New generation low-cost rockets are already in use, and several reusable rockets are expected to make their maiden flights by 2025, enhancing the capacity for commercial launches [7][21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in the early stages of the commercial aerospace industry chain, particularly in satellite manufacturing, rocket manufacturing, and launch services, as the market is expected to expand significantly by 2025 [8][21].
房地产行业周度观点更新:周期寻底阶段可能具备哪些特征?-20250602
Changjiang Securities· 2025-06-02 04:43
行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 周期寻底阶段可能具备哪些特征? ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 [Tablary] 行业量价和投资等指标在过去三年已经历较大幅度的下降,决策层也提出了"止跌回稳"的政 策目标,参考国际经验,行业调整大概率将进入下半场,意味着寻底阶段逐步开启,这个阶段 可能具备哪些共性和差异化特征?1、总量指标的调整斜率将逐步收窄;2、中小城市核心区房 价已接近重置成本,且净租金回报率显著高于利率,而非核心区住房将面临长期折旧压力甚至 负资产化。3、部分新房中短期内具备上涨潜力:一是核心城市核心区域的高端化产品,主要受 益于市场化定价和产品力溢价,二是更多城市的高得房率产品,主要是对老库存的迭代。 分析师及联系人 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Author] SAC:S0490520040001 SFC:BUV416 刘义 侯兆熔 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 周期寻底阶段可能具备哪些特征? 2] ——房地产行业周度观点更新 核心观点 止跌回稳的政策目标明显更为积极,市场预 ...