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医药行业创新药&链 2026 年度投资策略:周期向上,兼具成长
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-15 14:58
Group 1: Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is entering a clear upward cycle with significant growth opportunities in innovative drugs and the innovation chain, driven by supportive policies and a global expansion trend [3][10] - The Chinese innovative drug sector is increasingly favored by international capital, with a record high of 149 transactions in 2025, accounting for 11% of global transaction numbers and 29% of total transaction value [10][37] - The introduction of commercial health insurance into the medical insurance negotiation process in 2025 is expected to diversify the payment system for innovative drugs, enhancing their market accessibility [10][37] Group 2: Innovative Drugs - The upward policy cycle supports innovation, with the latest round of drug procurement entering a new phase of quality-price balance, as seen in the 11th batch of centralized procurement [10][30] - The global patent cliff from 2025 to 2037 is projected to create a gap exceeding $300 billion, prompting multinational corporations (MNCs) to pursue business development (BD) and acquisitions to fill this gap [10][45] - Chinese innovative drugs are positioned to capitalize on this trend, particularly in areas such as second-generation immune-oncology (IO) and next-generation antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) [10][50] Group 3: Innovation Chain - The innovation chain, including Contract Development and Manufacturing Organizations (CDMO) and Contract Research Organizations (CRO), is benefiting from both domestic and international demand, with CDMO orders showing a positive growth trend [12][12] - The overseas biopharmaceutical investment environment is improving, with a notable increase in funding as interest rates decline, which is expected to enhance the overall industry cycle [12][12] - The life sciences service sector is witnessing a recovery, driven by increasing domestic research demand and improved conditions for innovative drug development [12][13] Group 4: Market Opportunities - The domestic market for innovative drugs is projected to grow significantly, with over 400 innovative drugs approved since 2020, indicating strong internal growth potential [62][66] - As innovative drug companies transition to profitability, there is a potential shift in valuation methods from P/Peak Sales to PE, attracting broader investment interest [66] - Key companies to watch include AiLisi, Yunding Xinyao, and Kangnuo Ya, which are expected to benefit from the commercialization of innovative products [66]
新雷能(300593):高性能电源龙头,乘 AI 算力之风
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-15 14:32
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking it as the first recommendation [9]. Core Insights - The company has experienced short-term operational fluctuations due to the order rhythm in the special and communication industries. However, it is expected to return to mid-to-high-speed growth due to previous high R&D investments, new capacity releases, and a new round of equity incentives [2][5]. - The high-reliability special power supply market has significant growth potential, driven by trends in equipment electrification and emerging sectors like domestic large aircraft and commercial aerospace. As a leading domestic manufacturer, the company is poised to benefit [6][60]. - In the AIDC and communication sectors, the company is leveraging its deep expertise in high-performance power supplies to tap into the burgeoning AIDC power market, which is expected to yield substantial revenue growth [7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 1997, the company focuses on high-efficiency, high-reliability, and high-power-density power products, particularly in aerospace, aerospace, and special high-grade power supply fields. It has developed a rich product portfolio and offers comprehensive solutions across multiple industries [5][18]. Market Trends - The high-reliability special power supply market is recovering steadily, with long-term positive trends. The demand for power supplies in domestic large aircraft and commercial aerospace is expected to expand significantly, with projected annual demand reaching 16.9 billion in the next 20 years [6][54]. - The AIDC and communication sectors are experiencing a boom driven by AI computing power, leading to increased demand for server power supplies. The global AI server power module market is projected to grow from $6.5 billion to $60.8 billion between 2025 and 2031 [7][28]. Financial Performance - The company has faced short-term revenue and profit fluctuations due to order volatility in the special and communication sectors. However, it has shown signs of improvement in the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 929 million, a year-on-year increase of 36% [27][29]. - The company's gross margin has fluctuated, with a projected gross margin of 40% for 2024 and 2025, reflecting the impact of product structure adjustments and increased R&D expenses [29][30]. R&D and Capacity Expansion - The company maintains a strong commitment to R&D, with a focus on developing core technologies and expanding its product offerings. It has accumulated 399 intellectual property rights, including 67 invention patents [35][36]. - New capacity projects across multiple locations are nearing completion, with significant contributions expected to revenue and production capacity by 2025 and 2026 [42][44]. Equity Incentives - The company has implemented multiple rounds of equity incentives to bind core employees, with the latest plan aiming for substantial revenue growth targets over the next three years [46][48].
厦钨新能(688778):联合研究|公司点评|厦钨新能(688778.SH):量增利稳,多线布局,静待固态业务放量
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-15 13:43
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 13.059 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 552 million yuan, up 41.54% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 506 million yuan, growing by 48.2% [2][4]. - In Q3 2025 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 5.48 billion yuan, marking a 50.45% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 217 million yuan, which is a 61.82% year-on-year growth [2][4]. - The company has seen a steady increase in sales volume of lithium battery cathode materials, reaching 99,900 tons in the first three quarters, a 40.41% increase year-on-year. The sales of lithium cobalt oxide reached 46,900 tons, up 45.38% year-on-year [11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s total revenue for 2025 is projected to be 17.166 billion yuan, with a net profit forecast of 1.049 billion yuan for 2026 [15]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve, with a forecast of 10% for 2026 [15]. Business Outlook - The company is focusing on the stable growth of its main business, with expectations of benefiting from the technological iteration in AI smartphones, which may enhance its market share [11]. - The solid-state battery segment is being actively developed, with positive progress in the validation of new cathode materials and electrolytes [11]. Market Position - The company is positioned to benefit from the rising cobalt prices, which are expected to further enhance profitability [11]. - The competitive landscape in the industry is intensifying, but the company’s strategic initiatives in high-nickel cathode materials and low-cost production methods are anticipated to sustain its competitive edge [11].
如何看 2025 年 11 月消费数据?
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-15 13:36
[Table_Title] 如何看 2025 年 11 月消费数据? 联合研究丨行业点评 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 11 月份,社会消费品零售总额 43898 亿元,同比增长 1.3%。其中,除汽车以外的消费品零售 额 39444 亿元,增长 2.5%。1—11 月份,社会消费品零售总额 456067 亿元,增长 4.0%。其 中,除汽车以外的消费品零售额 411637 亿元,增长 4.6%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 李锦 赵刚 高伊楠 SAC:S0490514080004 SAC:S0490517020001 SAC:S0490517060001 SFC:BUV258 SFC:BUX176 SFC:BUW101 于旭辉 蔡方羿 董思远 SAC:S0490518020002 SAC:S0490516060001 SAC:S0490517070016 SFC:BUU942 SFC:BUV463 SFC:BQK487 陈亮 SAC:S0490517070017 SFC:BUW408 请阅读最后 ...
国内首个太空计算实验室成立,关注我国太空算力产业进展
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-15 13:35
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and is maintained [6] Core Insights - The establishment of the first space computing laboratory in China, a collaboration between Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Guoxing Aerospace, aims to create a leading, autonomous space computing network and foster a globally influential space computing industry cluster [2][4] - The partnership will leverage the strengths of both institutions in artificial intelligence and satellite networking, focusing on the development of space computing chips, robotic satellites, and in-orbit additive manufacturing [9] - The space computing sector is expected to address the growing demand for computing power driven by artificial intelligence, with significant investments in space-based data centers being explored by major companies like Amazon and SpaceX [9] Summary by Sections Event Description - On December 12, Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Guoxing Aerospace signed an agreement to jointly establish the first space computing laboratory in China, aiming to develop a technology-leading and autonomous space computing network [4] Event Commentary - The collaboration is expected to accelerate the industrialization of space computing networks, addressing the resource bottlenecks faced by traditional data centers and positioning China as a leader in the space computing sector [9] - The unique advantages of space computing in terms of energy efficiency and scalability are highlighted, with the potential to become a significant direction for computing supply [9] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on: 1) Satellite manufacturers and launch service providers 2) Computing hardware suppliers that can withstand space environments 3) Space computing operators [2][9]
纺织服装行业 2026 年度投资策略:破晓见曦,制造先明
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-15 11:16
Group 1 - The report indicates that the manufacturing sector is expected to stabilize, with overseas retail remaining robust and inventory levels in the industry and brand sectors returning to health. A shift in inventory cycles is anticipated, which could lead to either proactive replenishment or passive destocking phases, depending on demand changes [4][7][8] - Domestic retail sales have shown signs of recovery since August, supported by favorable policies such as tariff reductions and measures to boost domestic demand. This trend is expected to continue into next year, increasing the likelihood of a transition to proactive replenishment or passive destocking phases [4][9] - The report suggests focusing on high-elasticity profit recovery stocks in the A-share market, while emphasizing the need for certainty in brand retail, particularly in the Hong Kong market where short-term pressures persist [4][10] Group 2 - The analysis reveals that the textile and apparel industry has slightly underperformed the broader market this year, with the textile manufacturing index rising by 13.3% compared to a 5.3% increase in the brand apparel index as of December 12, 2025 [23][32] - The report highlights that the retail sector has shown steady recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 6.3% in retail sales for clothing and textiles in October 2025, although export figures have been weak, reflecting a decline of 9.1% in textile exports [21][23] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the inventory cycle and the potential for significant catalysts in head sports manufacturing orders and stock prices as demand shifts [7][8][9]
中伟股份(300919):联合研究|公司点评|中伟股份(300919.SZ):港股正式调入港股通,加快海外布局
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-15 11:16
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company has been officially included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which accelerates its overseas expansion [3]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 11.975 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.84% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.67%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 380 million yuan, down 17.33% year-on-year and down 10.65% quarter-on-quarter [3][8]. - The company completed its H-share issuance and was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on November 17, 2025, marking a key step in its strategy for technological diversification and global development [8]. Financial Performance - The company’s Q3 2025 financial data shows a gross profit margin of 12%, with total revenue projected to reach 40.223 billion yuan in 2027, increasing to 66.928 billion yuan by 2027 [13]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 2.2 billion yuan in 2026 and 2.775 billion yuan in 2027 [13]. - The company’s financial expenses in Q3 2025 were 345 million yuan, reflecting an increase due to exchange rate impacts [8]. Market Position and Outlook - The company’s three-element precursor materials and cobalt oxide materials are expected to continue growing, with growth rates anticipated to exceed industry levels [8]. - The utilization rate of phosphate iron has significantly improved, and profitability is expected to show improvement, contributing to incremental performance [8]. - Nickel resource production is expected to remain stable, with potential for improved profitability if nickel prices recover [8].
——11月经济数据点评:谁来接棒托底内需?
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-15 11:10
[Table_Title] 谁来接棒托底内需? 丨证券研究报告丨 中国经济丨点评报告 ——11 月经济数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 从 11 月经济和政策信号来看,一方面是过去经济增长的结构性支撑在持续转弱,但另一方面, 政策对短期波动的定力不减反增:2025 年中央经济工作会议首次提出(将)"存量政策和增量 政策纳入宏观政策取向一致性评估。"12 月政治局会议首次提出"坚持内需主导",均体现出在 政策端对于加速培育新业态发展的决心进一步增强。我们认为,在人口老龄化、地方化债的背 景下,地产基建投资或难有显著改善,"反内卷"则抑制着制造业投资的弹性,这意味着投资的 上行空间较为有限,叠加耐用品消费明显承压,服务消费料将成为 2026 托底内需的主要抓手。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 SAC:S0490520090001 SFC:BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com ——11 月经济数据点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2025 年 12 月 15 日,国家统计局公布 11 月经济数 ...
电新行业 2026 年度投资策略:新章与更序
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-15 10:43
Overall Insights - The report emphasizes that the core driver of the electric new industry is "demand," while "price" contributes additional elasticity. The year 2026 marks the beginning of a new demand cycle due to changes in underlying demand drivers [4][7][26]. - Macro-level trends indicate that the direction of renewable energy development remains unchanged, with clear trends in artificial intelligence and embodied intelligence industries [4][7]. - At the mid-level, the focus shifts to high-quality development of renewable energy, with consumption becoming central, and AI expected to drive global electricity demand growth [4][7]. - Micro-level analysis shows that various segments within the electric new industry will benefit to varying degrees [4][7]. Energy Storage - The energy storage sector is positioned as the main line for renewable energy consumption, with North American AI contributing elasticity. The global energy storage installation growth rate is expected to reach 60%-80% by 2026, with the energy storage industry chain benefiting significantly [8]. - The demand for lithium batteries is projected to grow by 30% in 2026, supported by high domestic registration volumes and stable production schedules [8]. - The supply side is expected to maintain a tight balance in the second half of 2026, with recommendations for investments in lithium carbonate and companies like CATL and Putailai [8]. Power Equipment - The power equipment sector is expected to be driven by exports and global economic recovery, with AI development enhancing overseas demand expectations [9]. - Key recommendations include focusing on transformers for export and AI power supply solutions, as domestic companies are likely to capture more global market share [9]. Wind and Solar - The wind power sector is anticipated to experience high demand growth, particularly in offshore and domestic markets. The supply-demand dynamics and product structure are expected to positively impact profitability across different segments [10]. - The solar power sector faces short-term uncertainties but is expected to recover as energy storage installation ratios increase, with a return to reasonable supply-demand levels anticipated by 2027 [10]. New Directions - The humanoid robotics industry is highlighted as a significant future direction, akin to the electric vehicle boom from 2015-2019, with a focus on key suppliers and domestic manufacturers [11]. - Solid-state battery technology is also emphasized, with ongoing developments expected to enhance sustainability and certainty in the sector [11].
流动性和机构行为周度观察:税期扰动或阻碍隔夜资金利率下行-20251215
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-15 04:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report From December 8 - 12, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a small net capital injection, and the 6M repurchase in December had a net injection of 20 billion yuan. The government bond net payment scale decreased, the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio increased on average, and the median duration of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds changed. Tax - period disturbances may hinder the decline of overnight funding rates [2][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Funds - **Central Bank Operations**: From December 8 - 12, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net injection of 470 million yuan. In December, the 6M repurchase had a net injection of 20 billion yuan. From December 15 - 19, 7 - day reverse repurchases worth 66.85 billion yuan will mature, 40 billion yuan of 6M repurchases will mature, and 60 billion yuan will be issued. The decrease in net repurchase injection in December may be due to banks' preference for 1 - year policy tools [6]. - **Funding Rates**: From December 8 - 12, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 decreased by 1.2 and 0.7 basis points respectively compared to December 1 - 5. The average values of DR007 and R007 increased by 1.1 and 0.6 basis points respectively. The overnight rate DR001 dropped below 1.30%. However, due to the tax - period payment disturbance after December 15, overnight funding rates may face volatility [7]. - **Government Bond Net Financing**: From December 8 - 14, 2025, the government bond net payment scale was about 1.48 billion yuan, 17.18 billion yuan less than December 1 - 7. From December 15 - 21, the expected net payment scale is - 8.394 billion yuan [7]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Yield and Curve**: As of December 12, 2025, the 1M and 3M inter - bank certificate of deposit yields were 1.6150%, up 3.6 and 0.0 basis points respectively from December 5. The 1Y yield was 1.6600%, up 0.5 basis points from November 28. The decline in certificate of deposit rates was hindered by weak bond market sentiment and limited impact of marginal changes in funding on pricing [8]. - **Net Financing**: From December 8 - 14, 2025, the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit was about - 12.06 billion yuan. From December 15 - 21, the expected maturity repayment amount is 106.29 billion yuan, with high roll - over pressure [8]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio**: From December 8 - 12, 2025, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.63%, up from 107.56% in December 1 - 5 [9]. - **Bond Fund Duration**: On December 12, 2025, the median duration of medium - long - term interest - style pure bond funds increased by 0.44 years week - on - week, reaching the 92.6% quantile since early 2022. The median duration of short - term interest - style pure bond funds decreased by 0.30 years week - on - week, at the 18.2% quantile [9].