丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 联合研究丨公司点评丨应流股份（603308.SH） [Table_Title] 应流股份 25Q3 点评：业绩连续高增，持续看好 两机业务弹性 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 应流股份通过"产业链延伸、价值链延伸"，主营业务已涵盖高温合金产品及精密铸钢件、核电 及其他中大型铸钢件、新型材料与装备等，覆盖高端部件、航空科技和先进材料三大领域。两 机领域，公司在客户端不断拓展，订单和营收有望快速增长，盈利持续释放；核能核电、低空 经济等持续发力。持续看好公司平台化拓展。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵智勇 王贺嘉 王鹤涛 屈奇 杨继虎 SAC：S0490517110001 SAC：S0490520110004 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490524070003 SAC：S0490525040001 SFC：BRP550 SFC：BUX462 SFC：BQT626 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 应流股份（603308.SH） cjzqdt1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.28 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.48%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 510 million yuan, up 21.00% year-on-year [3][4]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 680 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.32%, with a net profit of 136 million yuan, growing 8.81% year-on-year [3][4]. - The core products, including the Wuling series and the Bailin series, have shown significant growth, with revenues increasing by 6.98%, 29.58%, and 57.41% respectively for the Wuling series, Bailin series, and traditional Chinese medicine formula granules [10]. Financial Performance - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 59.72%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 20.06%, a decrease of 0.28 percentage points year-on-year [10]. - The company’s R&D expenses increased by 42.55% year-on-year to 17 million yuan, with an R&D expense ratio of 2.44% [10]. - The company expects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 638 million yuan, 800 million yuan, and 1.018 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.91 yuan, 1.14 yuan, and 1.45 yuan [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [8]. Core Insights - On November 6, the company "月之暗面" officially released and open-sourced the Kimi K2 Thinking model, which is characterized by its general Agentic capabilities and reasoning abilities, excelling in deep reasoning and capable of solving complex problems through multiple tool calls [2][5]. - Kimi K2 Thinking is based on the "model as Agent" concept, allowing for up to 300 rounds of tool calls autonomously without human intervention, potentially opening new paradigms for cost reduction in AI applications [2]. - The model has shown significant improvements in reasoning performance, surpassing GPT-5 in various benchmarks, including achieving a 44.9% accuracy in HLE tests compared to GPT-5's 41.7% [10]. - The model's ability to autonomously search and browse has also improved, scoring 60.2% in BrowseComp tests, which is significantly higher than the human average of 29.2% and GPT-5's 54.9% [10]. - Kimi K2 Thinking can perform 200-300 tool calls in an uninterrupted manner, enhancing its Agentic and reasoning performance, which is crucial for complex problem-solving [10]. - The model's pricing is set at 4 RMB/M tokens for input and 16 RMB/M tokens for output, with a Turbo API available at higher rates, indicating a competitive pricing strategy in the market [10]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The Kimi K2 Thinking model was released on November 6, featuring a MoE architecture with 1 trillion parameters and 32 billion active parameters, supporting a context length of 256K, optimized for domestic GPUs [5]. Performance Analysis - The model has demonstrated enhanced reasoning stability due to improved long-range planning and autonomous search capabilities, allowing it to break down complex tasks into manageable steps and integrate results effectively [10]. - The introduction of native INT4 quantization has improved reasoning efficiency and hardware compatibility, potentially reducing costs for large-scale inference servers [10]. Market Outlook - The report expresses optimism about the domestic AI industry chain, recommending stocks with significant positioning advantages and shovel stocks that support the AI ecosystem [2].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The report highlights that with the continuous development of AI, its enormous power consumption on the ground may lead to space data centers becoming a viable solution. Notable advancements include Nvidia's deployment of H100 GPUs in space and Elon Musk's plans to expand the Starlink V3 satellite scale, aiming for an annual deployment of 100GW of data centers within 4-5 years. Google has also initiated the "Sun Catcher Project," planning to launch prototype satellites equipped with Trillium TPU by early 2027, suggesting that space may become the optimal location for scaling AI computing [2][6] Summary by Sections Event Description - In November 2025, Nvidia sent its H100 GPU into space. Elon Musk announced plans to expand Starlink V3 and build space data centers, targeting 100GW of deployment annually within 4-5 years. Google plans to launch two prototype satellites in early 2027 to deploy AI computing directly in space [2][6] Event Commentary - The satellite industry faces high networking costs and challenges in commercial viability. Solutions include reducing manufacturing and launch costs and improving constellation efficiency. The report suggests focusing on companies generating revenue from 2023-2025, such as Canqin Technology, which may benefit from the explosive growth in capital expenditures from downstream operators. In the application explosion phase, attention should be on core operators and manufacturers with mass production capabilities in chip and basic components, recommending Haige Communication. Additionally, Fenghuo Communication is expanding into new industries, which may become a significant growth direction [8] Technological Advancements - Space data centers can leverage the unique environment of space, achieving zero energy consumption for cooling due to near -270°C temperatures and high solar power efficiency of 95%. Low Earth orbit satellite networks can provide high-speed access to 3 billion unconnected people. The report notes that advancements in reusable rocket technology are rapidly addressing cost challenges, with SpaceX reducing launch costs to around $1,000 per kilogram [8]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report addresses the increasing concerns regarding electricity shortages in the U.S., focusing on the extent of shortages, the integration of data centers into the grid, and the economic viability of self-built power sources for data centers [3][6] Summary by Sections Objective Indicators of Electricity Shortages - In 2024, the average power outage duration for U.S. electricity users increased significantly to 662.6 minutes, approximately 11 hours, marking an 81% year-on-year increase and the highest level in nearly a decade, indicating a substantial worsening of electricity shortages [7][18] - The average retail electricity price in the U.S. reached 13.54 cents per kWh from January to August 2025, a 5.2% increase year-on-year, with the PJM region seeing an average price of 13.14 cents per kWh, up 9% [23][24] Impact of Power Plant Retirements and Load Transfers - From 2025 to 2030, approximately 54 GW of thermal power plants are expected to retire, and around 10.3 GW of cryptocurrency mining facilities may exit the market due to rising electricity prices. If these plants do not retire and the mining facilities exit, the total potential relief for electricity shortages could be about 53.49 GW, which is only 36.2% of the previously predicted 201 GW shortage [8][27] Policy Developments for Data Center Integration - The U.S. Department of Energy has initiated a rule-making process to ensure large electricity loads, such as AI data centers, can connect to interstate grid systems in a timely and non-discriminatory manner. This trend is supported by various state policies encouraging data centers to match local resources [9][31] Project Developments in Data Center Energy Storage - There is a growing number of projects where AI data centers are integrating energy storage solutions. For instance, the GW Ranch off-grid power park in Texas plans to pair 5 GW of gas power with 1.8 GW of storage, while the Masdar&EWEC project in Abu Dhabi will provide 5.2 GW of solar and 19 GWh of storage for a 1 GW data center [10][38] Economic Comparison of Power Sources - The estimated costs per kWh for various power generation technologies are as follows: natural gas combined cycle at $0.0468, distributed internal combustion engines at $0.0608, solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) at $0.0717, and solar plus storage at $0.0815. Natural gas generation is deemed the most cost-effective option [11][42] Capital Expenditure Implications for Internet Giants - The initial investment increase for data centers due to self-built power sources is relatively modest, with combined cycle units increasing costs by about 6%, distributed engines by 9%, SOFC by 7%, and solar plus storage by 16%. The report suggests that electricity shortages will not hinder AI development but rather drive infrastructure investment [12][46]

联合研究丨行业点评 [Table_Title] AI 投资泡沫化了吗？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近期海外四大云厂商披露季报显示其对 CapEx 的投入仍在加码，OpenAI 大规模算力布局与当 前 AI 投入的呈现出规模不经济引发担忧，与此同时美国宏观经济层面出现政府停摆等不确定 性因素，共同加重市场对 AI 投入泡沫化的讨论与担忧。从当前 AI 叙事来看，大模型巨头正围 绕操作系统与流量入口开启全面军备竞赛，一方面 OpenAI 的变现能力正在逐步体现，另一方 面预计 2026 年 Big5 经营状况依旧健康，此外从 Amazon 云计算投入复盘历程看，超前 Capex 并非经营风险，而是先行布局的必然代价，因此我们认为阶段性扰动无需担忧。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 杨洋 宗建树 于海宁 SAC：S0490517070012 SAC：S0490520030004 SAC：S0490517110002 SFC：BUW100 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a cumulative operating revenue of 4.349 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.87%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 64.53% to 146 million yuan. In Q3 alone, the operating revenue reached 1.414 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 31.73%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 122.54% [6][8]. - The revenue decline is attributed to the ramp-up of production capacity, demand in the defense industry, and issues with revenue recognition. The company is still in the process of ramping up production, and the utilization rate remains low. Additionally, rising prices of precious metals have led to higher costs, impacting profitability [2][6][8]. - The company is focusing on its core business and aims to enhance its delivery capabilities while increasing investment in new domains and strategic emerging industries. Significant growth in orders has been observed in defense, new energy, and data communication sectors [6][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved total operating revenue of 5.025 billion yuan in 2024, with projections of 5.717 billion yuan in 2025, 7.454 billion yuan in 2026, and 9.282 billion yuan in 2027. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 505 million yuan in 2025, 867 million yuan in 2026, and 1.118 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 45%, 72%, and 29% respectively [19][19]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.10 yuan in 2025, 1.90 yuan in 2026, and 2.45 yuan in 2027 [19]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its technological innovation and market expansion efforts, achieving breakthroughs in key technologies. It has secured opportunities for three major new projects and has seen over 30% growth in orders from strategic emerging industries [6][8]. - The company is implementing refined management practices, focusing on cost control and optimizing marketing assessments to improve revenue recognition and cash flow [6][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company is focused on expanding its revenue streams while deepening its existing market presence. It is actively exploring new growth avenues, particularly in military communication and civilian communication sectors [2][12] - The company reported a total revenue of 1.192 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 25.92%, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 206 million yuan. In Q3 alone, revenue reached 561 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 37.65, although it still reported a net loss of 92 million yuan [6][12] Summary by Sections Military Communication - The company has successfully secured bulk orders for a new platform's comprehensive communication navigation recognition system and has entered the product delivery phase. Additionally, a collaborative data link product has opened up the market with increasing customer orders. The company is also expanding into the unmanned field, signing contracts for differential takeoff and landing guidance equipment [2][12] Civilian Communication - In the railway communication sector, the company maintains its market leadership and is actively involved in the urban rail transit market, focusing on maintenance and renovation projects. It has reached agreements for trial use of its self-branded TAU in various projects and is accelerating the application of new 5G products in urban rail systems [12] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 88 million yuan, 198 million yuan, and 314 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 178, 79, and 50 [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 12.284 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 3.20%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 841 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.13% [2][5] - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 4.481 billion yuan, down 9.78% year-on-year, and a net profit of 298 million yuan, down 13.05% year-on-year [2][5] - The company has seen a steady performance in profit margins, with a gross margin of 20.03% in Q3, a slight decline of 0.84 percentage points year-on-year [11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 12.284 billion yuan, with a net profit of 841 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 814 million yuan, showing growth of 7.13% and 2.07% respectively [2][5] - In Q3, the revenue was 4.481 billion yuan, with a net profit of 298 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 282 million yuan, indicating declines of 9.78% and 7.85% respectively [2][5] Sales Performance - The company experienced a year-on-year decline in total sales, with domestic sales down 2.18% and foreign sales down 3.46% for the first three quarters of 2025. In Q3, domestic sales increased by 1.51%, while foreign sales decreased by 11.87% [11] - The company is focusing on balancing its overseas sales and domestic brand business, with a strategy that includes a diverse range of self-owned brands [11] Profitability and Cost Management - The company maintained a gross margin of 20.03% in Q3, with stable performance in sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios [11] - The company aims to enhance its profitability through technology innovation and efficiency improvements, with projected net profits of 1.115 billion, 1.227 billion, and 1.350 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline in the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue of 137.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.50%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 21.46 billion yuan, down 2.27% year-on-year [2][4]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 39.86 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year decline of 15.09%, with a net profit of 7.05 billion yuan, down 9.92% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company announced a mid-year profit distribution plan, proposing a cash dividend of 10 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 26.02% [2][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - The company's revenue decline is attributed to several factors, including the transition from large to small distributors, a high-end brand positioning in a cautious consumer environment, and pressure on central air conditioning growth due to ongoing real estate downturns. The revenue growth rate for the company was lower than the overall industry expectation [10]. - The overall home air conditioning industry saw a total sales volume decline of 2.71%, with domestic sales increasing by 5.51% and exports decreasing by 12.94% [10]. Profitability - The gross margin decreased by 0.68 percentage points year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025. However, the operating profit margin increased by 0.13 percentage points due to a reduction in asset impairment losses [10]. - In Q3 2025, the gross margin decreased by 0.27 percentage points, while the operating profit margin increased by 0.62 percentage points, indicating improved profitability despite revenue challenges [10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to gradually recover from the operational pain caused by channel reforms, with improved terminal competitiveness anticipated. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 31.78 billion yuan, 33.53 billion yuan, and 35.71 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 7.13, 6.76, and 6.35 [10].