报告要点 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司点评丨特海国际（09658.HK） [Table_Title] 2025 年三季度业绩点评：同店销售额同比增长， 门店环比持平 [Table_Summary] 2025 年第三季度，公司实现营业收入 2.14 亿美元，同比增长 7.8%，期内溢利 359.3 万美元， 同比下滑 90.5%，主要系汇率波动影响。在餐饮出海浪潮下，特海国际以其独特的服务形式、 优越的品牌力、快速本土化的适应能力成为中餐出海品牌中的弄潮儿。在规模庞大且竞争格局 分散的国际餐饮市场中，特海国际具备广阔的发展空间。公司单店模型不断优化，新店快速实 现盈亏平衡，我们看好火锅行业在国际市场的发展空间以及公司未来的发展前景，预计公司 2025-2027 年实现归母净利润 4681、5908、7192 万美元，维持"买入"评级。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517020001 SAC：S0490520080013 SFC：BUX176 赵刚 杨会强 马健轩 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.9 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The launch of the Leopaard Lafa5 on November 27, 2025, is priced between 97,800 to 121,800 CNY, targeting a niche market for 100,000-level electric sedans, with strong potential for becoming a bestseller. The company is expected to see continuous sales growth driven by the domestic new car cycle and overseas expansion through collaboration with Stellantis, opening up global sales opportunities [2][4]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The Leopaard Lafa5 was officially launched on November 27, 2025 [4]. Event Commentary - The Lafa5 is positioned as a 100,000-level electric sedan, emphasizing extreme price-performance ratio, with significant promotional offers at launch. The pricing for the Lafa5 has decreased by 13,000 to 15,000 CNY compared to pre-sale versions, with a starting price of 92,800 CNY for a limited time. The vehicle features a spacious design, strong product capabilities, and competitive advantages in price, space, and configuration compared to rivals. The Lafa5 is built on the Leap3.5 architecture and offers impressive range and energy consumption metrics, with a CLTC range of 515 km and 605 km, and a minimum energy consumption of 12.3 kWh/100 km [7]. Company Outlook - The company is in a strong new car cycle, with plans to launch 2-3 new products globally each year over the next three years. The domestic market strategy includes a "1+N" channel development model, with 866 sales outlets as of September 30, 2025. The company has also established over 700 sales and service points in approximately 30 international markets, including Europe and Asia-Pacific. The investment in intelligent driving technology has increased significantly, with a nearly 100% rise in team size and computational resources in the first half of 2025 [7]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 630 million, 5 billion, and 8.37 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 107.9X, 13.7X, and 8.2X [7].

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 谁来接长债？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近期债市中短端抗跌，但超长端利差再次走阔。当前债市的困局在于财政的拉久期节奏，和央 行买长债的节奏并不一致，当前债市缺少长债的买入力量。后续债市如何恢复超长端的供求平 衡？我们认为主要有以下三种路径，并对每种路径进行了验证及测算：1）央行开始明显买入长 久期国债；2）长债利率继续调整后，财政系统在面临长端融资成本攀升的时候，会理性选择缩 短发行久期；3）大行进一步得到注资，或缓解利率敏感性监管指标压力，让大行有空间继续买 入长久期债券。在这一矛盾缓解之前，我们预计中短端相对抗跌，而超长端可能继续震荡偏弱。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马月 马玮健 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490525080001 SFC：BVN394 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 谁来接长债？ [Table_Summary2] 近期债市中短端抗跌，而超长端利差再走阔 近期债市中短端抗跌，但超长端利差再次走阔，主因超长端 ...

报告要点 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨家用电器 [Table_Title] 如何看待降息周期美国家电市场表现？ [Table_Summary2] 引言 [Table_Summary] 北京时间 2025 年 9 月 18 日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25 个基点至 4.00%- 4.25%，此为时隔九个月的再度降息。复盘历轮降息周期对美国本土家电产业的影响，其对供 给侧的拉动较为显著，且传导效率相对更高；相比之下，降息后需求侧虽然最终也会呈现改善 趋势，但存在较长的时滞性。因此，本次降息对国内家电企业收入端的贡献在中短期内或不会 显现，且后续仍需观察美国经济基本面的变化趋势。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈亮 SAC：S0490517070017 SFC：BUW408 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 如何看待降息周期美国家电市场表现？ 北京时间 2025 年 9 月 18 日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25 个基点至 4.00%- 4.25%，此为时隔九个月的再度 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 美国缺电将拉动多大煤炭消费量？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近期美国 AI 产业快速发展所引发的缺电问题备受市场关注，2025 年美国已经出现缺电问题， 并导致煤电机组利用率提升进而导致煤炭出口量明显缩减。我们认为未来缺电问题有望持续拉 动美国煤炭消费量增长，测算来看，若煤电机组利用率进一步回升，未来美国国内煤炭需求有 望回升至 5.47-6.40 亿吨，较 2025 年年化增长 27%-48%，国内供需趋紧或引发美国煤炭出口 量大幅缩减，进而打破全球煤炭贸易格局的平衡，对全球及我国煤价形成边际支撑。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Author] 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 煤炭与消 ...

行业研究丨深度报告丨家用电器 [Table_Title] 如何看新兴市场白电景气度与格局？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 受益于居民户均收入突破临界拐点，过去几年东南亚、拉美及中东非等新兴市场家电渗透率迎 来加速提升，行业长期保持高景气，同时国内企业凭借深入的本地化布局与产品及性价比等方 面优势正逐步抢占日韩系与欧美系企业份额。展望后续，国内市场面临潜在的基数与需求前置 压力，增长中枢或边际放缓，海外成熟地区家电也已基本进入存量阶段，而新兴市场当前渗透 率仍处于相对低位，且国内品牌保有较大份额提升潜力，有望为国内家电企业规模增长贡献长 期势能。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈亮 SAC：S0490517070017 SFC：BUW408 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 20 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title2] 如何看新兴市场白电景气度与格局？ [Table_Summary2] 新兴市场家电景气度如何？ 国内出口表现与上市公司财报的交 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 房企阿尔法的关键在哪儿？ ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 存量市场承压，对房企定价构成挑战，但不是影响阿尔法的最重要因素；老货减值压力也有望 边际缓和。房企阿尔法的真正制约在于景气缩圈，可投城市和优质地块的供应相对不足，尽管 参投房企数量较前几年减少，但竞争烈度依然不低，一是房企补充有效货值的难度加大，二是 溢价率偏高。打破景气进一步缩圈，唯有政策加码，尽管总量效应可能有限，但政策对好房子 和结构性市场的支撑效果相对可期。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 刘义 侯兆熔 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 房企阿尔法的关键在哪儿？ 2] ——房地产行业周度观点更新 [Table_Summary2] 核心观点 止跌回稳的政策目标一定程度上对市场预期曾有明显提振，但 4 月以来边际下行压力再次加 大，产业政策宽 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 高质量数据集突破 500PB，数据要素赋能人工 智能发展 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 12 月 4 日，据央视新闻报道，从国家数据局获悉，最新数据显示，截至三季度末，我国已建成 高质量数据集总量突破 500PB，为人工智能模型性能的提升和创新的加速提供了有力支撑。随 着我国高质量数据集建设工作持续加速，高质量数据集的流通有望推动形成商业化闭环。同时 在大模型加速落地的过程中，数据的价值或将进一步被挖掘。建议关注具备高质量数据资源的 厂商，尤其在医疗、金融、工业等细分领域具有稀缺数据的公司。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 陈耀文 SAC：S0490520030004 SAC：S0490525070002 SFC：BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 高质量数据集突破 2] 500PB，数据要素赋能人工 智能发展 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 12 月 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key stocks in the financial and manufacturing sectors, including Green City China, Jianfa International Group, New China Life Insurance, and Bank of Communications [12][42][44]. Core Views - The report highlights the increasing pressure on corporate earnings in the short term, with a focus on the potential for export recovery in the coming year [9][10]. - The real estate sector is facing downward pressure, but there are expectations for policy support to alleviate burdens on homebuyers [11]. - The non-bank financial sector is experiencing an optimized market structure, with high growth potential in the securities industry [15]. - The banking sector is expected to see accelerated valuation reassessment driven by strong allocation forces [17]. - The new energy sector is at a bottoming phase, with attention on marginal changes in new technologies [20]. - The machinery sector is approaching mass production of humanoid robots, focusing on core supply chain targets [25]. - The military industry is expected to improve, with a focus on military trade, internal installations, and military-to-civilian transitions [27]. - The light industry is emphasizing opportunities in overseas manufacturing and high-quality domestic consumption [30]. Summary by Sections Real Estate - The real estate sector is under increasing downward pressure, particularly in core cities, with expectations for policy measures to lower home purchase thresholds [11]. - Key companies like Green City China and Jianfa International Group are highlighted for their strong land acquisition and sales performance, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 [12][14]. Non-Bank Financial - The securities industry is expected to maintain high growth, with significant improvements in insurance companies' performance [15][16]. - New China Life Insurance is noted for its leading elasticity and potential for growth in the equity market [16]. Banking - The report emphasizes the ongoing valuation repair in the banking sector, particularly for large state-owned banks and city commercial banks [17][19]. - Bank of Communications is highlighted for its low PB valuation compared to peers, indicating potential for significant upside [19]. New Energy - The new energy sector is identified as having established a bottom, with a focus on solar, storage, and lithium battery technologies [20][21]. - Companies like Sunshine Power and Siling Co. are recommended for their growth potential in the energy storage market [22][23]. Machinery - The humanoid robot sector is approaching mass production, with companies like Hengli Hydraulic expected to benefit from this trend [25][26]. Military - The military sector is projected to see upward trends in military trade and civilian applications of military technology [27][28]. Light Industry - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas manufacturing and high-quality domestic consumption opportunities, with companies like Simor International and Aorijin highlighted for their growth potential [30][32][34]. Environmental - The environmental sector is expected to benefit from carbon reduction policies and overseas expansion opportunities, with companies like Huanlan Environment and Ice Wheel Environment noted for their growth prospects [35][40][41].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [6] Core Insights - The report highlights a two-year lag in the domestic AI capital expenditure (Capex) cycle compared to overseas trends, with a significant increase expected in 2024 [3][4] - Domestic leading cloud providers, such as Alibaba Cloud, are anticipated to see revenue growth starting from the second half of 2024, reflecting the returns on AI investments [4][35] - The report predicts a substantial increase in token consumption in the domestic market by 2026, aligning with the overseas growth patterns [5][40] Summary by Sections Overseas Observation - The overseas AI industry has a three-stage cycle from Capex investment in 2023, revenue growth for cloud vendors in 2024, to token explosion in 2025 [3][11] - High Capex investments are primarily directed towards model training, which is costly and resource-intensive [19][22] Domestic Observation - Domestic major players are expected to officially start their AI Capex cycle in the second half of 2024, with a one-year delay compared to overseas counterparts [4][31] - Revenue growth for leading domestic cloud providers like Alibaba Cloud is projected to rebound from a low of 3% to 26% year-on-year by late 2024 [4][35] Domestic Forecast - The report anticipates that the domestic token explosion will occur in 2026, with current token consumption not showing significant growth compared to overseas trends [5][40] - As coding and multimodal models mature, downstream application scenarios are expected to open up, leading to increased demand for high-quality tokens [5][40]