丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨东方财富（300059.SZ） [Table_Title] 东方财富 2025 三季报点评：证券业务驱动高增， 看好中长期竞争力 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 东财 Q3 单季利润增速显著提升，证券业务驱动增长。强市中证券业务收入显著提升，平台流 量整体回暖。强市中证券业务收入显著提升，平台流量整体回暖。成本端费用控制良好，盈利 能力显著提升。东方财富作为互联网券商的标杆，在获客端和成本控制端的竞争优势显著。短 期内公募降费影响接近出清，证券业务市场份额持续提升，佣金费率先于行业见底。在市场回 暖背景下，看好其证券业务的长期成长性。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 吴一凡 戴永飞 SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490524070001 SFC：BUV596 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 东方财富发布 2025 年三季报，报告期内实现营业总收入 115.9 亿元，同比增长 58.7%，实现 归母净利润 91.0 亿元，同比增长 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 440 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 12.93%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 33 million yuan, down 50.25% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the revenue was 147 million yuan, a decrease of 20.12% year-on-year, with a net profit of 12 million yuan, down 54.14% year-on-year. The slow recovery of high-speed rail passenger traffic has put continuous pressure on high-speed rail advertising, while the outdoor naked-eye 3D business is steadily advancing, with Q3 2025 gross margin improving to 32.79% [4][11][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 440 million yuan, a decrease of 12.93% year-on-year, and a net profit of 33 million yuan, down 50.25% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the revenue was 147 million yuan, a decline of 20.12% year-on-year, with a net profit of 12 million yuan, down 54.14% year-on-year [4][11]. Business Developments - The recovery of high-speed rail passenger traffic is slow, leading to ongoing pressure on advertising revenues. The company has signed agreements with 18 domestic railway bureau groups, establishing a digital media network that reaches over 2 billion passengers annually across 30 provincial-level regions. The media value of high-speed rail is expected to become more prominent as quality traffic becomes scarce [11]. - The outdoor naked-eye 3D screen business is progressing steadily, with the company focusing on digital content production to enhance user experience. The company has launched several high-definition outdoor naked-eye 3D screens in major commercial areas and is developing original content to redefine outdoor media experiences [11]. Margin and Cost Management - The company is optimizing its high-speed rail advertising locations, which has led to a significant improvement in gross margin, reaching 32.79% in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.51 percentage points but an increase of 10.24 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The reduction in advertising expenses has also contributed to a decrease in the sales expense ratio [11]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 72 million yuan in 2025 and 146 million yuan in 2026, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 63.13 and 31.32, respectively. The "Buy" rating is maintained based on these projections [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [2][8]. Core Insights - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2025 shows a steady growth, with operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 55.81 billion yuan and 23.16 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 32.7% and 37.9% [5][11]. - The company continues to demonstrate its leading advantages in the industry, with self-operated brokerage services driving growth and asset management and investment banking businesses showing signs of recovery [2][11]. - The outlook for the company remains positive, with expectations of further enhancement in profitability and competitive edge as the market remains at a high level [2][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue and net profit of 22.78 billion yuan and 9.44 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 55.7% and 51.5% [11]. - The weighted average return on equity (ROE) increased by 1.85 percentage points to 8.15% year-on-year [5][11]. - The operating leverage, excluding customer funds, increased by 5.0% from the beginning of the year to 4.74 times [5]. Business Segments - Brokerage, investment banking, asset management, interest income, and proprietary trading revenues were 10.94 billion, 3.69 billion, 8.70 billion, 0.76 billion, and 32.08 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +52.9%, +30.9%, +16.4%, -16.9%, and +47.0% [11]. - The brokerage business saw a significant increase in revenue due to high market activity, with average daily trading volume reaching 2.1 trillion yuan, up 211.3% year-on-year [11]. Market Position - The investment banking revenue continued to recover, with a year-on-year increase of 30.9% to 3.69 billion yuan [11]. - The company maintained a leading position in the market, ranking first in bond underwriting and second in equity financing, despite a slight decline in IPO rankings [11]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 27.34 billion yuan and 30.69 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16.2 and 14.4 [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the communication industry [10]. Core Insights - The communication sector saw an increase of 11.43% in the 43rd week of 2025, ranking first among major industries in the Yangtze River region. Year-to-date, the sector has risen by 67.97%, also ranking first [2][5]. - Anthropic and Google are collaborating to deploy up to 1 million TPUs, with an expected investment of several hundred billion dollars, aiming for a launch of over 1 GW computing cluster by 2026 [6]. - The introduction of OCS switch cabinets in Google's Ironwood super node architecture indicates a rapid advancement in the OCS industry, supported by significant orders for yttrium vanadate from Tengjing Technology [6][8]. - NVIDIA is considering providing guarantees for loans to OpenAI to support its data center expansion, with a total funding support of up to $100 billion planned for the construction of at least 10 GW AI computing clusters [7][8]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 43rd week of 2025, the communication sector increased by 11.43%, leading the Yangtze River region's major industries. Since the beginning of the year, the sector has risen by 67.97% [2][5]. Key Collaborations and Developments - Anthropic's partnership with Google aims to deploy 1 million TPUs to meet the growing demand for AI model training and inference, with a project investment expected to reach hundreds of billions of dollars [6]. - The OCS industry is accelerating, as evidenced by Tengjing Technology's significant order for yttrium vanadate, which is crucial for the OCS technology [6]. AI and Computing Expansion - NVIDIA's potential loan guarantees for OpenAI are part of a broader strategy to support the expansion of AI computing capabilities, with OpenAI also launching the Atlas browser featuring integrated ChatGPT functionalities [7][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies across various segments, including: - Telecom Operators: China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom - Optical Modules: Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication - Liquid Cooling: Yingweike - Hollow Core Fiber: Fenghuo Communication, Hengtong Optic-Electric - Domestic Computing: Runze Technology, Guanghuan New Network - AI Applications: Boshi Jie, Heertai, Tuobang Co., Yiyuan Communication - Satellite Applications: Huace Navigation, Haige Communication [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group Co., Ltd. is "Buy" and is maintained [11]. Core Viewpoints - AVIC Xi'an is significantly undervalued in the large aircraft military trade market, with its core model Y-20 having notable scarcity on the supply side, as comparable models like the US C-17 have been discontinued and the Russian IL-76 is in low production [3][7]. - The medium transport aircraft market has greater potential compared to large transport aircraft, with the Y-9 model having a significant market opportunity in military trade [3][9]. - The company has focused on its main aircraft manufacturing business after multiple restructurings, and its management team has become notably younger, which may bring new dynamics to the company [6][20]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - AVIC Xi'an has undergone several asset restructurings and has become the only listed platform for large and medium transport aircraft in China [20]. - The company has a diverse product line including military transport aircraft, bombers, and civil aircraft, as well as international subcontracting business [22]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue has shown steady growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.59% from 2020 to 2024, increasing from 33.484 billion to 43.216 billion [24]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 19.416 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.49%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 4.83% to 689 million [24][28]. Market Position and Opportunities - The Y-20 model is positioned as a leading strategic transport aircraft, with a maximum takeoff weight of 200 tons, filling a gap in the market as many comparable models have ceased production [46][49]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growth of the domestic large aircraft market, particularly with the C919 model, which is projected to have a production capacity increase by 33% by 2029 [8][9]. Management and Investor Relations - The new management team, predominantly composed of younger individuals, is expected to enhance investor relations and market value management [20][36]. - The company is actively working on value creation, realization, and management to improve operational efficiency and shareholder returns [36].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase in Q3 2025, primarily benefiting from order acceptance and a low base from the previous year. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 385 million, a year-on-year increase of 8.70%. In Q3 2025 alone, revenue was 102 million, up 30.75% year-on-year [2][6]. - The company is actively promoting domestic substitution of mechanical products and is building a high-end scientific research instrument platform. It is also expanding into the sensor industry and accelerating its layout in the humanoid robot sector through strategic partnerships [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 101 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.23%. The net profit for Q3 2025 was 25 million, up 0.50% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items for the same period was 99 million, a slight increase of 0.11% [6]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 67.46%, an increase of 0.91 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 26.10%, a decrease of 1.71 percentage points year-on-year [12]. Business Development - The company is focusing on the domestic substitution of mechanical products and is developing new products such as customized measurement and control analysis systems. It is also enhancing its sensor product line, which includes various types of sensors suitable for harsh environments [12]. - The company has accelerated its entry into the humanoid robot industry, signing a strategic cooperation agreement with Nantong Zhenkang and engaging in strategic discussions with Nidec to collaborate on testing and verification in the field of precision transmission products [12]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 159 million and 206 million in 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 39x and 30x. The "Buy" rating is maintained based on these projections [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.737 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 38.29% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 16.66%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -135 million yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of -141 million yuan, indicating an expansion of losses [2][4]. - Despite short-term fluctuations in operating performance, the medium-term outlook is positive due to new technologies, new business ventures, and the expansion of new production bases [4][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company faced challenges with a significant drop in revenue and increased losses compared to the previous year and quarter [2][4]. - The company’s gross profit margin is projected to improve in the future, driven by the release of new products and business lines [11]. Business Developments - The company is experiencing pressure on its ternary battery shipments due to product upgrades and capacity ramp-up, but its overseas strategic layout is expected to provide new growth potential amid tightening lithium battery export policies [11]. - New business segments, such as manganese iron lithium, are showing promising growth, with sales increasing by 103% year-on-year in Q3 2025, and the company is on track to achieve mass production of manganese iron lithium solutions by 2026 [11]. Future Outlook - Looking ahead to Q4 2025 and 2026, the company anticipates gradual improvement in performance as new businesses, products, and production bases come online [11]. - The company has established significant production capacity overseas, including 60,000 tons/year of ternary cathode capacity in South Korea and a projected 25,000 tons/year capacity in Poland expected to commence in mid-2026 [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [12]. Core Views - The company's earnings are under short-term cyclical pressure, but as a leading state-owned enterprise, there is still room for valuation recovery. The cyclical pressure is reflected in the settlement end, with Q3 performance falling short of expectations. However, considering the ample unrecognized resources, the gradual recognition of high-profit land reserves, and the diminishing impact of asset impairment, future performance is expected to maintain a certain scale. The company remains the industry leader in sales, actively expanding investments, and continuously optimizing land reserve quality through adjustments [2][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 173.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.9 billion yuan, down 75.3% [6][12]. - The completion area decreased by 12.1% year-on-year, which pressured revenue. The comprehensive gross margin for Q3 was 10.8%, a decline of 4.8 percentage points, marking a new low in recent years [12]. Sales and Investment - Despite industry downturns, the company achieved sales of 201.7 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 16.5%, with a sales area of 10.1 million square meters, down 25.1%. The average price per square meter increased by 11.5% to 20,000 yuan [12]. - The company actively expanded its investment, with land acquisition amounting to 60.3 billion yuan, an increase of 45.3%, and the area acquired was 2.9 million square meters, up 30.1% [12]. Business Diversification - The company reported operational income of 2.54 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, an increase of 13%. The property management segment showed stable performance, with a net profit of 890 million yuan, up 5.3% [12]. - The successful issuance of 8.5 billion yuan in convertible bonds at a low interest rate of 2.20% reflects investor recognition of the company's value [12]. Future Outlook - Although the projected delivery volume for 2025 is expected to decline, the rising average sales price is anticipated to support revenue. The company is expected to maintain a certain scale of performance despite cyclical pressures [12]. - The estimated net profits for 2025-2027 are projected to be 1.7 billion, 2.2 billion, and 2.7 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 53, 42, and 34 times [12].

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a significant upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching the 4000-point mark and a total trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan [2][10][7] - Key sectors leading the market include telecommunications, electronics, metal materials, mining, and agricultural products, with notable gains in the storage, cross-strait integration, rare earths, and consumer electronics outsourcing concepts [10][10][10] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.51%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 1.98%. The total market turnover reached 2.36 trillion yuan, with 3360 stocks rising [2][10][10] - Specific sector performance on October 27, 2025, showed telecommunications (+3.28%), electronics (+2.95%), metal materials and mining (+2.45%), and agricultural products (+1.65%) leading the gains, while sectors like media, food and beverage, real estate, and banking saw declines [10][10][10] Market Drivers - The increase in trading volume to over 2 trillion yuan was driven by global storage giants announcing price hikes, boosting technology hardware stocks, particularly in the semiconductor sector [10][10] - Legislative actions, such as the establishment of October 25 as Taiwan Recovery Day, have led to increased activity in the cross-strait integration sector, while the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's draft on steel industry capacity replacement has positively impacted steel stocks [10][10] Future Outlook - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the Chinese stock market, particularly favoring technology as a key investment theme. It suggests that macroeconomic factors will support a bullish trend similar to past bull markets in 1999, 2014, and 2019 [10][10] - Investment focus areas include technology sectors such as AI, robotics, military industry, and new consumption, as well as scarce resources like metals and sectors with improving supply dynamics such as steel, chemicals, transportation, and pig farming [10][10]

丨证券研究报告丨 中国经济丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 利润的高增长能否延续 ——1-9 月工业企业利润点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 9 月工业企业利润同比增速继续回升至 21.6%，连续两月实现 20%以上的增长。从分行业视角 看，出口链行业对整体利润增长的拉动效果显著，反映出在当前内需低位震荡的环境下，外需 的韧性或对利润改善的持续性尤为重要。短期看，受到去年高基数影响，四季度出口的同比增 速或显著承压。从中期来看，全球商品贸易需求或在随美联储降息而改善，趋势或许更乐观。 此外，考虑到内需方面提振消费已成为"十五五"规划的关键任务之一，消费政策可能加码也 使得企业盈利改善的前景值得期待。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 刘承昊 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490523050001 SFC：BUX667 SFC：BVA882 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% [Table_Title 利润的高增长能否延续 2] ——1-9 月工业企业利润点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2025 年 10 月 27 日，国家统计局 ...