丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] AI 产业跟踪：通义 Qwen3-Max 正式发布，引领 "参数革命"，持续关注大模型商业化进展 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 9 月 24 日云栖大会上通义千问重磅发布一揽子模型。其中 Qwen3-Max 正式发布， 系通义迄今为止规模最大、能力最强的模型。模型包含三个主要版本：Base（基础版本）、Instruct （指令优化版本）和 Thinking（推理增强版本）。 Qwen3-Max 正式发布定位旗舰，总参数超 万亿，主推 Coding 能力和 Agent 工具调用能力，综合性能宣布超过 GPT-5、Claude Opus 4 等国际顶尖模型，正式跻身全球大模型前三阵营。持续关注国内 AI Infra 厂商业务进展与投入， 看好 Agent 商业化元年及其投资机遇。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 刘思缘 SAC：S0490520030004 SFC：BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 软件与服务 cj ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [8] Core Insights - The 25th China International Industry Fair highlighted the need to cultivate emerging industries and create new growth drivers, focusing on technology innovation, large-scale development, and application scenario construction [2][5] - Key areas of investment opportunity include the entire quantum technology industry chain, particularly quantum system platforms and applications, as well as the brain-computer interface industry chain and its downstream applications [2][10] Summary by Sections Event Description - The report discusses the opening of the 25th China International Industry Fair in Shanghai, emphasizing the importance of nurturing emerging industries and establishing a growth mechanism for future industries [5] Industry Evolution - The report notes that quantum technology and brain-computer interfaces are transitioning from laboratory research to practical applications, with significant advancements in hardware materials [10] - In the medical field, brain-computer interfaces can assist paralyzed patients in controlling exoskeletons through thought, while in consumer technology, they may change interactions with electronic devices [10] Policy Support - The report indicates that supportive policies are being implemented to promote future industries, with a focus on systematic layout at the national strategic level [10] - The report cites a joint opinion issued by multiple government departments aimed at fostering innovation and development in future industries [10] Future Industry Potential - The report highlights that future industries such as humanoid robots, brain-computer interfaces, the metaverse, and quantum information are still in their early stages, presenting significant growth potential [10] - It suggests that with strong policy support, these industries are expected to accelerate their development and become important components of China's economy [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and maintained [10]. Core Viewpoints - The update of the procurement standards for desktop and portable computers by the central government is expected to benefit the domestic chip industry chain, domestic operating system industry chain, and Huawei's industry chain [2][14]. - The updated standards aim to enhance the hardware performance of domestic PCs, reduce procurement and operational costs, and improve market competitiveness [14]. - The new procurement standards will likely guide local procurement and accelerate the adoption of domestic products, with significant updates expected by 2025 and 2027 [14]. Summary by Relevant Sections Event Description - On September 22, 2025, the central government procurement website released a notification updating the procurement configuration standards for desktop and portable computers [7]. Event Commentary - The updated standards include adjustments in CPU models, CPU frequency, memory read/write speeds, and graphics card types, aiming to improve the performance of domestic PCs [14]. - The standards emphasize the need for compliance with security and reliability assessments for CPUs and operating systems during procurement [14]. - The restrictions on non-domestic configurations are expected to increase the domestic product adoption rate, with the shipment of domestic PCs projected to rise significantly [14].

Group 1: Chinese Innovative Pharmaceuticals - The development of innovative pharmaceuticals in China is driven by a significant increase in high-quality graduates in relevant fields, with the number of R&D personnel in the biotech sector rising from 150,000 in 2015 to 450,000 in 2023 [11][16][22] - Chinese biotech companies are experiencing rapid growth in early clinical pipelines, with a notable increase in the number of original innovative drugs (FIC) entering clinical stages, surpassing the United States in the number of original innovative drugs approved for clinical trials from 2015 to 2024 [16][18] - The number of Chinese companies participating in global academic conferences like AACR has increased significantly, with 126 companies presenting nearly 300 new drug research results at the 2025 AACR conference [16][18] Group 2: Market Opportunities and Trends - The global market for immune-oncology (IO) therapies is substantial, with sales projected to reach approximately $56.27 billion by 2024, indicating a strong growth trajectory [33][40] - The second-generation IO therapies are expected to replace first-generation therapies and address unmet clinical needs, with a market size estimated to approach $738 billion [40][43] - The self-immune targeted drug market is projected to reach nearly $200 billion, with several blockbuster products emerging, indicating a lucrative opportunity for pharmaceutical companies [43][48] Group 3: Business Development and Collaborations - There has been a surge in business development (BD) transactions involving Chinese pharmaceutical companies, particularly in high-barrier products like ADCs and bispecific antibodies, with transaction amounts reaching new highs [27][52] - Notable BD transactions include significant upfront payments and milestone payments for innovative drug projects, showcasing the increasing value of Chinese assets in the global market [29][52] - The pricing of products from Chinese companies is generally lower compared to their overseas counterparts, suggesting that Chinese assets are undervalued and present attractive investment opportunities [52][54]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - From September 22 - 26, 2025, the central bank net - withdrew funds through 7 - day reverse repurchase and conducted 14 - day reverse repurchase operations during the quarter - end period. MLF was incrementally renewed. The inter - bank funding market fluctuated significantly due to the quarter - end effect [2][6]. - The net payment scale of government bonds decreased from September 22 - 28, 2025, and the majority of inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) yields rose. The net financing of NCDs turned negative. The average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased, and the durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - style pure bond funds both marginally increased [2][8][9]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Funding Market - **Central Bank Operations**: From September 22 - 26, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 2594 billion yuan, 14 - day reverse repurchase was 9000 billion yuan, and MLF had a net injection of 3000 billion yuan. On September 29 and 30, 7 - day reverse repurchases totaling 5166 billion yuan were due, and on October 9, 7 - day reverse repurchases of 12325 billion yuan and 14 - day reverse repurchases of 3000 billion yuan were due [6]. - **Funding Rate Fluctuations**: From September 22 - 26, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 decreased by 5.0 and 5.5 basis points respectively compared to September 15 - 19, while the average values of DR007 and R007 increased by 1.9 and 9.9 basis points respectively. The funding market loosened from September 22 - 23, fluctuated significantly from September 24 - 25, and the funding rate dropped significantly on September 26 [7]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From September 22 - 28, 2025, the net payment of government bonds was about 716 billion yuan, a decrease of about 3764 billion yuan compared to September 15 - 21. From September 29 - 30, the expected net payment was 2121 billion yuan [7]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificate of Deposits - **Yield Changes**: As of September 26, 2025, the yields of 1M, 3M, and 1Y NCDs increased by 7.5, 1.0, and 1.0 basis points respectively compared to September 19 [8]. - **Net Financing**: From September 22 - 28, 2025, the net financing of NCDs was about - 1782 billion yuan, turning negative from 1295 billion yuan in September 15 - 21. The expected maturity repayment from September 29 - October 5 was 1688 billion yuan, and the expected maturity in October was 18443 billion yuan, significantly lower than 35470 billion yuan in September [8]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio**: From September 22 - 26, 2025, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.65%, up from 107.32% in September 15 - 19 [9]. - **Bond Fund Duration**: On September 26, 2025, the median duration (MA5) of medium - long - term interest - style pure bond funds was 4.05 years, up 0.01 years week - on - week, at the 59.2% quantile since early 2022. The median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - style pure bond funds was 1.58 years, up 0.03 years week - on - week, at the 14.1% quantile since early 2022 [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - From September 29 to October 5, local bonds are expected to be issued at 10.7153 billion yuan, including 5.9341 billion yuan in new bonds (992 million yuan in new general bonds and 4.9421 billion yuan in new special bonds) and 4.7811 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (3.5178 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds and 1.2633 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds) [2][4] - From September 22 to September 28, local bonds were actually issued at 19.6051 billion yuan, including 15.5194 billion yuan in new bonds (560.4 million yuan in new general bonds and 14.959 billion yuan in new special bonds) and 4.0857 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (582.7 million yuan in refinancing general bonds and 3.503 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds) [2][5] - As of September 28, 2025, the total disclosed amount of special new special bonds in 2025 is 120.1225 billion yuan, and since 2023, the total disclosed amount is 238.9088 billion yuan. The top three regions in terms of disclosed scale are Jiangsu (23.4035 billion yuan), Xinjiang (13.117 billion yuan), and Hubei (12.8769 billion yuan). In 2025, the top three provinces or municipalities directly under the central government in terms of disclosed scale are Jiangsu (11.89 billion yuan), Guangdong (10.2748 billion yuan), and Yunnan (7.2997 billion yuan) [6] Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance - **Actual Issuance and Pre - issuance Disclosure**: From September 22 to September 28, the net supply of local bonds was 12.25 billion yuan; from September 29 to October 5, the forecast net supply of local bonds is 9.81 billion yuan [10][12][15] - **Comparison of Planned and Actual Issuance**: The planned and actual issuance of local bonds in August and September are presented through charts, showing the differences between planned and actual issuance amounts of new bonds, new general bonds, new special bonds, and refinancing bonds [10][14][16] Local Bond Net Supply - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of September 28, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 82.29%, and that of new special bonds is 83.73% [10][25] - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: The chart shows the cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities as of September 28 [10][25] Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: The chart shows the issuance amounts of special refinancing bonds in different rounds in various regions as of September 28, including five rounds and two batches in the fifth round. The statistical scope includes both issued and disclosed - but - not - issued bonds [28][29][30] - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of September 28, the statistical situation of special new special bonds in different regions from 2023 to 2025 is presented, and the statistical scope includes both issued and disclosed - but - not - issued bonds [31][32][33] Local Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: The charts show the primary - secondary spreads of local bonds and the secondary spreads by region, including the changes from September 19 to September 26 [35][36][37] - **New Special Bond Investment Direction**: The chart shows the investment direction of new special bonds, and the latest monthly statistics only consider the investment directions of issued new bonds [38]

报告要点 丨证券研究报告丨 [TaSummary] 今年以来，受资金风格切换等因素影响，交运板块核心红利资产标的均面临一定程度股价调整， 估值及股息率重回高性价比区间，显著领先十年期国债收益率，对于绝对收益资金吸引力逐步 提升。基于行业特征，我们重点推荐交运板块中具有低估值、高股息特征的垄断性资产，1）买 低波稳健+分红确定：优选高速公路龙头（招商公路以及宁沪高速等），以及大秦铁路与青岛港； 2）短期看，港股市场估值折价明显、股息率更具性价比，建议关注港股向上弹性。 行业研究丨行业周报丨运输 [Table_Title] 当前时点，如何看待交运红利资产配置价值？ 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490520020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S0490520080027 SAC：S0490524120001 SFC：BQK468 SFC：BWN875 韩轶超 赵超 鲁斯嘉 张银晗 胡俊文 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 当前时点，如 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [7] Core Insights - The second round of interest rate cuts has begun, similar to the period from April to June 2020, highlighting the importance of the silver-gold ratio recovery and the elasticity of silver [2][4] - Inflation data met expectations while consumer confidence hit a new low, increasing the probability of interest rate cuts [4] - In the base metals sector, while the interest rate cut benefits are being realized, concerns about natural demand have led to a decline in industrial metals, except for copper, which saw price increases due to supply disruptions [4][5] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the recovery of the silver-gold ratio and the potential for silver to gain elasticity as inflation expectations rise [4] - It suggests that during the initial phase of the interest rate cut cycle, gold prices are expected to continue a volatile upward trend, with a 90% probability of a rate cut in October and a 65% probability in December [4] - Recommendations include increasing allocations to gold stocks in anticipation of a quarterly resonance in price, valuation, and style [4][5] Industrial Metals - The report notes that copper prices have surged due to supply shocks, particularly from the Grasberg copper mine accident, which is expected to impact sales by nearly 200,000 tons by Q4 2025 and reduce production by 270,000 tons in 2026 [4][5] - Overall, industrial metals have seen a decline, but copper has risen by 3.2% on the SHFE and 2.1% on the LME due to supply constraints [4][22] Strategic Metals - The report highlights the long-term bullish outlook for cobalt prices due to the implementation of an export quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which will lead to a global cobalt market shortage from 2025 to 2027 [5] - It also discusses the strategic importance of rare earths and tungsten, with a focus on the increasing demand and price support for rare earth materials [5] Market Performance - The report indicates that the metal materials and mining sector has outperformed the broader market, with a 2.60% increase compared to a 0.21% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [13][16] - Specific stocks in the copper and aluminum sectors are highlighted for their growth potential, with recommendations for companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Zijin Mining [5][20]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - The AI development is proposed to evolve through three stages: from General Artificial Intelligence (AGI) to Super Artificial Intelligence (ASI), with a significant investment of 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure over three years to create a "Super AI Cloud" [2][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of open-source ecosystems and aims to establish Alibaba as a global full-stack AI service provider, with strategic initiatives to enhance AI capabilities and infrastructure [11] - Continuous monitoring of domestic AI infrastructure manufacturers' business progress and investments is recommended, with a focus on the commercialization of AI agents and related investment opportunities [11] Summary by Sections Event Description - The 2025 Cloud Habitat Conference will take place from September 24 to 26, 2025, in Hangzhou, where Alibaba's CEO outlined the AI development path and announced a 380 billion yuan investment plan [2][5] Event Commentary - The report highlights the transition from AGI to ASI, emphasizing the need for advanced model capabilities and the establishment of a global AI service ecosystem [11] - Key highlights include the launch of flagship models and the enhancement of full-stack AI infrastructure, showcasing Alibaba's commitment to becoming a leader in AI technology [11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [6] Core Viewpoints - The release of OpenHarmony 6.0 marks a significant milestone, with continuous upgrades and iterations under an open-source model, leading to technological breakthroughs and ecosystem improvements. This is expected to attract more manufacturers to join the OpenHarmony ecosystem, creating a positive cycle and accelerating its development [2][4][9] - The report suggests focusing on manufacturers within the Harmony industry chain that are developing commercial distributions and independent brands based on the Harmony system, as they are likely to enhance their market share due to the system's advantages in fluidity, universality, connectivity, and security [2][9] Summary by Sections Event Description - On September 27, the OpenHarmony Technology Conference 2025 was held in Changsha, where the OpenAtom OpenHarmony project officially released the OpenHarmony 6.0 version [4] Technical Breakthroughs - OpenHarmony 6.0 has achieved multiple technical breakthroughs, including enhanced ArkUI component capabilities, upgraded window capabilities, and improved application framework support, which collectively optimize the development experience and reduce development costs [9] Community and Ecosystem Growth - As of August 31, the OpenHarmony community has gathered over 9,200 contributors, with a total code contribution exceeding 130 million lines. More than 480 partners are involved in co-construction, and over 1,300 products have passed compatibility testing across various sectors [9] Future Plans - OpenHarmony plans to incubate cross-platform framework PMC and embodied intelligence PMC, focusing on cutting-edge areas such as AI on the edge and interconnectivity standards, which will significantly expand its development boundaries [9]