Group 1: Federal Reserve Chair Transition - The upcoming transition of the Federal Reserve Chair is expected to have limited impact on the Fed's independence, as the leading candidates, Hassett and Warsh, are establishment figures unlikely to pursue aggressive easing policies[8] - The decision-making process of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) requires collective voting, which constrains the new chair's ability to unilaterally influence policy direction[8] - Current market predictions indicate a 45% probability for Hassett and a 33% probability for Warsh to be nominated as the next Fed Chair[17] Group 2: Midterm Elections - Historically, the ruling party has lost an average of 26.8 House seats and 3.4 Senate seats in midterm elections since 1934, regardless of presidential approval ratings[30] - The Republican Party is likely to lose control of the House and faces fierce competition in the Senate, with 22 of the 35 contested seats currently held by Republicans[35] - Trump's focus is expected to shift towards short-term domestic policies to boost approval ratings ahead of the midterms, as tariffs have not significantly improved his support[43]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Viewpoints - SpaceX announced a reduction in the orbital altitude of thousands of Starlink satellites to mitigate collision risks, highlighting the increasing competition for limited space resources [2][5] - The adjustment will involve approximately 4,400 Starlink satellites moving from an altitude of 550 kilometers to about 480 kilometers, aiming to reduce space debris and enhance safety [10] - The report emphasizes that the competition for low Earth orbit resources is intensifying, which may accelerate the development of China's commercial space industry, particularly with advancements in reusable rocket technology [10] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Event Description**: SpaceX's decision to lower the altitude of its Starlink satellites is a response to the growing congestion in low Earth orbit, which has become a focal point for international discussions on space resource allocation [5][10] - **Market Dynamics**: The report notes that the number of low Earth orbit satellites is expected to increase by 190% over the next decade, further complicating resource distribution [10] - **China's Commercial Space Development**: China's commercial space sector is projected to enter a rapid growth phase, driven by the competition for orbital resources and advancements in technology, with a focus on key suppliers in the industry [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - From January 5th to January 11th, local bonds are expected to be issued worth 1.17664 billion yuan, including new bonds worth 884.34 million yuan (new general bonds worth 10 million yuan and new special - purpose bonds worth 874.34 million yuan) and refinancing bonds worth 292.3 million yuan (refinancing general bonds worth 0 yuan and refinancing special - purpose bonds worth 292.3 million yuan). From December 29th, 2025 to January 4th, 2026, a total of 260 million yuan of local bonds were issued, including new bonds worth 145 million yuan (new general bonds worth 0 yuan and new special - purpose bonds worth 145 million yuan) and refinancing bonds worth 115 million yuan (refinancing general bonds worth 85 million yuan and refinancing special - purpose bonds worth 30 million yuan) [2][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Local Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - **Actual Issuance and Pre - issuance Disclosure**: From December 29th, 2025 to January 4th, 2026, the issuance details of local bonds are presented, including the issuance of new general bonds, new special - purpose bonds, special refinancing bonds, and net financing [14][15]. - **Comparison of Planned and Actual Issuance**: The comparison shows the differences between planned and actual issuance of new bonds, new general bonds, new special - purpose bonds, and refinancing bonds, with data presented for multiple periods [16][17][23]. 3.2 Local Bond Net Supply - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of January 4th, the issuance progress of new general bonds and new special - purpose bonds was 0.00% [27][28]. - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: The cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local bond maturities as of January 4th is presented, with specific data and statistical details [27][28][29]. 3.3 Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: The issuance statistics of special refinancing bonds as of January 4th are shown, including different rounds of issuance in various regions, with detailed data and statistical notes [31][32][33]. - **Special New Special - purpose Bond Issuance Statistics**: The issuance statistics of special new special - purpose bonds as of January 4th are provided, covering different years and regions, with statistical notes [34][35][36]. 3.4 Local Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: The primary - secondary spread of local bonds is presented, including the spread for different maturities and changes over time [38][39]. - **Regional Secondary Spread**: The regional secondary spread of local bonds is shown [40]. - **New Special - purpose Bond Investment Direction**: The investment direction of new special - purpose bonds is presented, with a note on the statistical scope [41].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and is maintained [8] Core Insights - The two leading fiberglass companies in China, China Jushi and China National Materials, have announced stock incentive plans, reflecting their operational confidence [2][6] - China Jushi plans to grant up to 34.53 million restricted stocks, accounting for 0.86% of its total share capital, with a first grant of 31.08 million shares at a price of 10.19 CNY per share, which is about 60% of the current stock price [13] - China National Materials plans to grant 15.4 million stock options, representing 0.92% of its total share capital, with a first grant of 13.93 million options at an exercise price of 36.65 CNY per option, close to the current stock price [13] - The fiberglass yarn market is expected to stabilize and show upward momentum, with ordinary electronic cloth showing elasticity due to increased demand driven by AI applications [13] - The demand for Low-Dk electronic cloth is projected to grow significantly, with total demand expected to reach approximately 1.1 million, 2.2 million, and 3.2 million meters from 2025 to 2027 [13] Summary by Sections Stock Incentive Plans - China Jushi's stock incentive plan includes performance targets for net profit growth, with compound annual growth rates of no less than 38.5%, 27.0%, and 22.0% from 2026 to 2028 [13] - China National Materials' stock option plan also includes performance targets, with compound annual growth rates of no less than 107.0%, 73.0%, and 62.5% from 2026 to 2028 [13] Market Outlook - The fiberglass yarn prices are expected to stabilize, with a slight upward trend anticipated in 2026 due to limited new production capacity and a recovery in overseas demand [13] - The ordinary electronic cloth market is expected to see higher price increases due to the shift towards high-end products driven by AI technology [13] AI Special Electronic Cloth - The industry is poised for an upgrade with the increasing demand for Low-Dk electronic cloth, which is essential for high-frequency and high-speed PCBs [13] - The transition to M9 materials in AI PCBs is expected to drive significant growth in high-end special electronic cloth applications [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [11] Core Insights - The company is a leading comprehensive chemical enterprise leveraging rich phosphate resources in Yichang to establish a complete phosphate chemical industry chain, while also focusing on resource transformation and technological innovation to develop high value-added products for long-term quality growth [3][6] - The report emphasizes the company's strategic focus on new energy materials and high value-added new materials, highlighting its multi-segment layout and collaborative advantages within the industry chain [6][9] Summary by Relevant Sections R&D Investment - The company is recognized as a high-tech enterprise, leading the establishment of the Hubei Three Gorges Laboratory, and has implemented over 40 key national and local technology projects. It has a dedicated R&D team of over 500 personnel, with a significant proportion holding advanced degrees [20][28] - R&D expenditure reached 1.19 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 4.2% of revenue, which is higher than industry peers [28] New Energy Materials - The company focuses on "phosphorus" to develop new energy materials, including LFP battery cathode materials, lithium iron phosphate, and solid-state battery materials. It has a production capacity of 100,000 tons/year for phosphoric acid iron and 80,000 tons/year for lithium iron phosphate [41][45] - Recent agreements with major clients, such as BYD, for processing contracts further strengthen its market position [41] High Value-added New Materials - The company has developed several high value-added new materials, including phosphating agents and fine phosphates, which are expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth [9][41] - The report highlights the potential of black phosphorus and other innovative materials in energy storage and catalysis, with the company achieving breakthroughs in these areas [9][41] Investment Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from cyclical recovery in its main products, with expectations of significant profit growth from new energy materials and high-end new materials. Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.74 billion, 2.44 billion, and 3.03 billion yuan respectively [9][11]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the banking sector, recommending long-term investments in leading city commercial banks with clear ROE advantages and large banks with low valuations and high dividend yields [2][10]. Core Insights - The banking sector experienced a slight increase at the end of the year, outperforming the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices, driven by risk appetite and institutional allocation behavior [2][10]. - The introduction of interest-bearing digital RMB is expected to enhance the promotional drive for commercial banks and attract more users [8][42]. - The banking sector is undergoing a rebalancing of its operational cycle and investment value, with a focus on establishing a risk bottom line as a foundation for valuation recovery [6][42]. Summary by Sections Banking Sector Performance - The banking index rose by 1.0% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices by 1.6% and 2.2% respectively [10]. - Major banks' H-shares generally increased, with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank leading the gains, while Xiamen Bank saw a pullback [10]. Digital RMB - Digital RMB wallets that have undergone real-name authentication will now earn interest at a rate of 0.05%, transitioning from being treated as cash to being managed like demand deposits [8][42]. - The digital RMB's interest-bearing feature is expected to boost commercial banks' promotional efforts and user attraction [42]. Credit Growth - As of the end of November 2025, credit growth rates varied across regions, with Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Sichuan, and Anhui maintaining growth rates above 8%, and Sichuan leading at 10.4% [37]. - Corporate loans remain the primary growth driver, with Jiangsu and Sichuan showing growth rates of 13.6% and 13.0% respectively [37]. Valuation and Investment Strategy - The report highlights that banking stocks are significantly undervalued from a PB-ROE perspective, particularly quality city commercial banks with leading ROE [7]. - The report recommends focusing on quality city commercial banks such as Hangzhou Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Jiangsu Bank, as well as dividend-focused assets like Bank of Communications and China Merchants Bank [7][10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance released the 2026 national subsidy policy details on December 30, 2025, adjusting passenger car subsidies from fixed amounts to a percentage of the vehicle price, optimizing subsidy standards [2][5] - The current automotive sector has shifted from being solely influenced by domestic demand to being driven by overseas markets, high-end products, and smart technologies, with a focus on identifying alpha opportunities centered around AI [2][8] Summary by Sections Subsidy Policy Changes - The subsidy for purchasing new energy passenger vehicles is 12% of the vehicle price (up to 20,000 yuan), and for 2.0-liter and below fuel passenger vehicles, it is 10% (up to 15,000 yuan). For trade-ins, the subsidy is 8% for new energy vehicles (up to 15,000 yuan) and 6% for fuel vehicles (up to 13,000 yuan) [5][6] Inventory and Demand Outlook - Observations indicate that the end of 2025 saw an increase in channel inventory, with manufacturers beginning to clear stock in late November. If retail sales exceed expectations in January, inventory may reach a bottom sooner, alleviating pressure [6] Market Structure and Beneficiaries - The mid-to-high-end passenger vehicle segment is expected to benefit more from the new subsidy structure, which may help ease industry competition and push price bands upward [7] Strategic Focus on Intelligence - The core strategy remains to leverage the smart technology trend, with an emphasis on AI-related sectors such as robotics, liquid cooling, and intelligent driving. The automotive sector is now influenced by a combination of factors rather than just domestic demand [8]

报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2026 年 1 月 1 日，数字人民币正式从"数字现金时代"迈入"数字存款货币"时代。据数字人 民币运营管理中心微信公众号 1 月 2 日消息，数字人民币 App 也焕新升级，迎来 2.0.0 版本。 随着数字人民币 App2.0 上线，或标准着我国数字人民币进入"计量、管理、运行、生态"全 链条标准化运营的新阶段，有望带动我国数字人民币全产业链发展。建议关注数字人民币全产 业链，重点关注：1）数字人民币跨境结算系统方案供应商；2）跨境支付方案供应商；3）具备 数字人民币支付场景的方案供应商；4）支付终端供应商。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 陈耀文 SAC：S0490520030004 SAC：S0490525070002 SFC：BUX668 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 数字人民币 App2.0 版本上线，数字人民币正式 迈入数字存款货币时代 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_T ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and is maintained [7] Core Insights - In 2025, China's space launches reached a record high with a total of 92 launches, significantly up from 68 in 2024, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the commercial space industry [2][4] - The acceleration in launches is attributed to advancements in technology and funding solutions, suggesting that the commercial space sector is poised for rapid development [2][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring key suppliers within the commercial space industry, particularly leading companies, satellite assembly firms, and core component suppliers [2][4] Summary by Sections Launch Statistics - In 2025, China completed 92 space launches, with 90 successful and 2 failures, marking a substantial increase from the previous year's 68 launches [4] - The second half of 2025 saw a notable increase in launch activity, with 57 launches compared to 35 in the first half [4] Future Projections - The report anticipates that the number of launches in 2026 will continue to rise, potentially exceeding 100 launches, driven by new rocket technologies and the establishment of the Commercial Space Administration [4] Role of Private Enterprises - Private space companies are expected to play a more significant role in 2026, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange introducing new listing rules to support commercial rocket enterprises [4] - The IPO of Blue Arrow Aerospace aims to raise 7.5 billion yuan, with a portion allocated for enhancing reusable rocket capabilities [4] Global Context - The global space launch market also saw an increase, with total launches surpassing 300 for the first time, indicating a competitive landscape [4] - The U.S. accounted for approximately 60% of global launches, highlighting the international dynamics of the space race [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [12] Core Insights - The geopolitical risks surrounding Venezuela are expected to support oil transportation during the off-peak season, with a recommendation for companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [6][21] - The appreciation of the Renminbi is anticipated to benefit the transportation sector, particularly in three key areas: companies with significant dollar-denominated debt will gain from exchange rate benefits, increased purchasing power will boost outbound tourism and consumption, and lower dollar-denominated costs will improve profitability [7][35][42] Summary by Sections Geopolitical Risks and Oil Transportation - The U.S. has implemented significant sanctions against Venezuela, leading to a temporary halt in its oil exports, which are projected to be 700,000 barrels per day in 2024, accounting for 1.8% of global oil exports [6][21] - The sanctions may tighten heavy oil supply for China and the U.S., prompting increased imports from Middle Eastern and Latin American countries, thus raising compliant oil transportation demand [6][21] Renminbi Appreciation and Opportunities in Transportation - As of January 2, 2026, the Renminbi has appreciated by 1.4% against the U.S. dollar since December 2025, with expectations for continued appreciation due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [7][30][32] - The report categorizes beneficiaries into three tiers: companies with large dollar debts benefiting from exchange rate gains, increased outbound tourism boosting international flight revenues, and reduced costs for aviation fuel leading to improved profitability [7][35][42] Travel Demand and Market Performance - During the New Year holiday, domestic passenger traffic saw a 10% year-on-year increase, while international passenger traffic rose by 9% [8][57] - The average domestic passenger load factor improved by 6.0 percentage points year-on-year, and international load factors increased by 4.8 percentage points [8][63] Logistics and Freight Trends - The volume of express deliveries has shown a slight decline, with a 0.5% year-on-year decrease in the number of packages collected [9] - Despite the decline in express delivery growth, the logistics sector is expected to see a shift towards leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express due to a restructuring of the e-commerce ecosystem [9]