世界经济与海外市场丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 对等关税：谁受冲击，如何演绎？ ——特朗普的美国梦系列 2 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 综合最惠国税率、增值税率和贸易逆差情况看，印度、欧盟、墨西哥、韩国、越南、泰国、柬 埔寨等经济体或成为美国"对等关税"政策优先实施对象。后续落地或将分两步走：先引用《国 际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）普加关税，先加后谈；后续再启动专项调查，通过行政令的方式 聚焦具体行业。短期来看，较于其他经济体，我国进口关税税率和美国差距较小，或意味着美 对华再度大幅加征关税概率较小，这将利于市场风险偏好的提振。长期看，"对等关税"的推行 或会引起其他国家反制，这或将为我国进一步加强与欧盟、东盟等贸易合作提供契机。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 蒋佳榛 黄帅 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490524080005 SFC：BUX667 敬成宇 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 25 %% %% %% %% research.95579.c ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - In 2024, the company's revenue is expected to decline by 23.75% due to fluctuations in demand from aerospace defense downstream customers, alongside the exclusion of the civil products subsidiary's revenue from August to December [2][7] - The company achieved a historical high gross margin of 20.99% for the year, benefiting from the divestiture of its civil products business [2][7] - The company is positioned for high-quality growth driven by its dual main businesses in aerospace support and unmanned systems, with expectations of a recovery in demand in the aerospace defense sector as the "14th Five-Year Plan" concludes [2][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 14.28 billion, a decrease of 23.75% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 548 million, an increase of 4.42% year-on-year; and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 167 million, a decrease of 59.44% year-on-year [7] - For Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.05 billion, a decrease of 12.52% year-on-year, and a net loss of 14 million, a decrease of 213.60% year-on-year [7] Market Dynamics - The company’s military product deliveries fell short of expectations due to industry demand fluctuations, impacting overall revenue [12] - The company’s inventory remains at historically high levels, with a year-end inventory of 20.25 billion, indicating potential for rapid delivery as demand recovers [12] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 651 million, 803 million, and 1.115 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 19%, 23%, and 39% [12] - The company’s focus on high-intensity R&D investments is expected to solidify its position in the unmanned systems industry and explore emerging markets such as commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy [12]

丨证券研究报告丨 联合研究丨公司点评丨时代电气（688187.SH） [Table_Title] 时代电气 2024 年报点评：经营稳健增长，轨交、 半导体、海工装备等业务持续发力 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 时代电气发布 2024 年年报，轨交装备和新兴装备业务稳健发展；公司在夯实提升轨道交通业 务的基础上，逐步拓展轨交外市场，多项业务并举推进，持续看好公司轨交装备+新兴装备双轮 驱动。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Author] 赵智勇 杨洋 倪蕤 钟智铧 屈奇 SAC：S0490517110001 SAC：S0490517070012 SAC：S0490520030003 SAC：S0490522060001 SAC：S0490524070003 SFC：BRP550 SFC：BUW100 时代电气（688187.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 时代电气 2024 2] 年报点评：经营稳健增长，轨交、 半导体、海工装备等业务持续发力 [Table_Summary2] ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 估值修复，利差收窄 ——信用利差周报（3/30） 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 3 月 24 日-3 月 28 日各券种收益率总体下行，信用利差跟随收窄。收益率方面，0.5Y 大多数券 种下行幅度超 3bp，产业债、商金债、证券公司次级债多数下行幅度超 5bp。1Y 大多数券种下 行超 3bp，城投债多数下行幅度超 4bp，2-3Y 大多数券种下行幅度在 1-3bp，城投债下行幅度 大，多数下行幅度超 5bp。5Y 大多数券种下行幅度超 5bp，城投债、证券公司次级债多数下行 幅度超 7bp。信用利差方面，0.5Y-2Y 多数券种收窄超 3bp，城投债、商金债多数收窄超 5bp。 3Y-5Y 各券种收窄幅度有所分化，城投债多数收窄超 5bp。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_T ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 28.4 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.6 billion yuan, up 14.3% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 10 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1.1 billion yuan, which accounts for 68.9% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, representing a significant increase of 66.7% year-on-year [3][8]. - The company is a leading player in the phosphate chemical industry, with a complete industrial chain and strong R&D capabilities, currently facing short-term pressure due to product market downturns but is expected to recover as new projects are implemented [8]. Financial Performance - In Q4, the company achieved a revenue of 6.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.7% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 26.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q4 was 290 million yuan, down 35.5% year-on-year and 43.6% quarter-on-quarter [1][3]. - The gross margin for the company was 24.9%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0 percentage points but an increase of 6.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [8]. - The company’s main products, including phosphate rock and glyphosate, showed stable pricing trends, with minor fluctuations in market prices [8]. Product Outlook - The company has a production capacity of 230,000 tons per year for glyphosate and 600,000 tons per year for organosilicon monomers. The current market conditions for these products are at historical lows, but there are signs of potential recovery due to improving demand and reduced competition [8]. - The company is advancing key projects, including a 1 million tons per year optical mining project and a 2 million tons per year phosphate mining project, which are expected to enhance its overall strength [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Insights - The controller industry is recovering, and the company's market share is expected to increase, with positive trends in its main business. The digital energy, smart automotive, and robotics sectors are opening up new growth opportunities. The projected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is estimated at 0.89 billion, 1.12 billion, and 1.40 billion respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 33%, 26%, and 25%, with corresponding PE ratios of 22, 17, and 14 [2][5]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 10.501 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.78%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 0.671 billion, up 30.25% year-on-year. In Q4 2024, the operating revenue was 2.802 billion, a 6.48% increase year-on-year, while the net profit was 0.119 billion, a decrease of 14.30% year-on-year [5][10]. Business Segments - **Tools and Home Appliances**: This segment generated revenue of 7.981 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.48%, with a gross margin of 23.17%. The smart controller is the core product, with a shipment volume of 178 million units, up 28.5% year-on-year [10]. - **Digital Energy and Smart Automotive**: This segment reported revenue of 2.052 billion, a decline of 6.32%, with a gross margin of 20.91%. The company has made significant progress in overseas markets, particularly in large-scale energy storage applications [10]. - **Robotics**: The robotics segment achieved sales revenue of 0.468 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.09%, with a gross margin of 28.68%. The company is focusing on humanoid robots and has developed a product platform for hollow cup motors [10].

[Table_Summary] 2024 年公司实现营业收入 2859.81 亿元，同比增长 4.29%，实现归母净利润 187.41 亿元，同 比增长 12.92%，实现扣非归母净利润 178.05 亿元，同比增长 12.52%。其中，2024Q4 公司 实现营业收入 830.10 亿元，同比增长 9.88%，实现归母净利润 35.87 亿元，同比增长 3.96%， 实现扣非归母净利润 31.20 亿元，同比增长 0.52%。 丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨海尔智家（600690.SH） [Table_Title] 营收规模稳健增长，Q4 归母净利润有所扰动 报告要点 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈亮 SAC：S0490517070017 SFC：BUW408 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 海尔智家（600690.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 营收规模稳健增长，Q4 归母净利润有所扰动 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司披露年报：2024 年公司实现营业收入 2859.8 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to achieve double-digit revenue growth in 2024 through vertical integration in military products and horizontal expansion in emerging industries, with a notable comparative advantage amidst fluctuations in defense demand [2][6] - The company reported a revenue of 20.686 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.354 billion yuan, up 0.45% year-on-year [6] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.591 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 39.77% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 34.56%, with a net profit of 841 million yuan, up 88.79% year-on-year [6] Summary by Sections Business Performance - The company actively stocked up in Q4 2024 to meet surging short-term demand, resulting in accounts payable reaching a historical high of 6.574 billion yuan [8] - Fixed asset balance at the end of 2024 reached 6.493 billion yuan, a 45% increase from the beginning of the year, driven by the completion of several key projects [8] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is 3.731 billion, 4.114 billion, and 4.524 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 10%, and 10% [8] - Corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 24, 21, and 20 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [8] Cost Management - The company has implemented a comprehensive cost management mechanism, resulting in a slight decrease in gross margin to 36.54% due to changes in revenue structure [12] - Research and development expenses increased by 2.48% to 2.252 billion yuan, reflecting a commitment to innovation and growth in emerging sectors [12]

丨证券研究报告丨 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王贺嘉 王清 SAC：S0490520110004 SAC：S0490524050001 SFC：BUX462 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% 公司研究丨点评报告丨航天电器（002025.SZ） [Table_Title] 存货高增保短期交付，景气向上成长加速 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司 2024 年受防务需求波动、订单不饱满导致收入业绩同比下滑，毛利率稳中有升，但期间 费用率提升导致净利率同比下滑；存货余额大幅增长保障短期交付，产能落地夯实中长期成长 确定性。 航天电器（002025.SZ） cjzqdt11111 research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 存货高增保短期交付，景气向上成长加速 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司发布 2024 年报，2024A 实现营业收入 50.25 亿元，同比减少 19.08%，实现归母净利润 3.47 亿元，同比减少 53.75%；2024Q4 实现营业收入 10.30 亿元，同比增长 2.31%，环比减 少 4.03% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company achieved a historical high in profitability, with a gross margin of 12.47% and a net margin of 7.97%, indicating strong operational efficiency [2][6] - In Q4 2024, the company reported a significant revenue increase of 50.99% year-on-year, reaching 175.40 billion yuan, and a net profit growth of 145.19% year-on-year, amounting to 15.76 billion yuan [6][2] - The company is actively expanding production capacity to support the launch of new models, with inventory levels indicating strong short-term demand [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the full year 2024, the company reported total revenue of 428.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.37% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 33.94 billion yuan, an increase of 12.86% year-on-year [6][2] - The Q4 2024 results showed a remarkable recovery, with revenue of 175.40 billion yuan and net profit of 15.76 billion yuan, marking a significant turnaround from earlier quarters [6][2] Operational Insights - The company has successfully navigated external challenges related to contract signing and supply chain issues, achieving a balanced production goal [2][6] - The inventory balance at the end of 2024 reached a historical high of 136.01 billion yuan, reflecting robust short-term demand and ongoing capacity expansion [2][6] Profitability and Efficiency - The company maintained a stable gross margin throughout the year, with a historical high net margin of 9.15% in Q4 2024, driven by effective cost control measures [2][6] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is projected to grow to 39.56 billion yuan, 47.32 billion yuan, and 55.77 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 31, 26, and 22 times [2][6]