
Search documents
无人物流车:降本拓权,增长元年
Changjiang Securities· 2025-05-25 23:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the logistics industry [8] Core Insights - The domestic low-speed unmanned logistics vehicle market is entering a year of explosive growth, with leading logistics technology companies expected to see a multiple increase in order volume by 2025 [1][4] - Key factors driving the commercialization of unmanned logistics vehicles include significant cost reductions in core components and improved algorithm efficiency, making unmanned vehicles economically advantageous compared to human labor [4][24] - The loosening of road rights policies is accelerating the commercialization of unmanned vehicles, expanding their application from closed environments to open urban distribution scenarios [4][36] - The total sales volume of replaceable commercial vehicles is estimated at 2.85 million units, with a potential stock of 12 million units, indicating a substantial market opportunity [4][43] - By 2025, the total delivery volume of leading unmanned logistics vehicle companies may reach tens of thousands, with a market size potentially exceeding 100 billion yuan if the penetration rate in the last-mile delivery market exceeds 17% [4][47] Summary by Sections Cost Advantages and Policy Changes - The cost of unmanned logistics vehicles has significantly decreased, with the price of a single vehicle dropping from approximately 200,000 yuan in 2019 to 50,000 yuan in 2024, while monthly operational costs are around 3,167 yuan, significantly lower than the average monthly income of human drivers [24][25] - Road rights policies have been progressively relaxed, allowing unmanned vehicles to operate on public roads, with over 100 cities granting operational rights as of May 2025 [31][35] Application Areas - L4 level autonomous driving technology is being applied in various sectors, including urban distribution, traditional logistics, community group buying, and retail, showcasing its versatility and potential for efficiency improvements [36][41] Market Potential - The potential market for unmanned logistics vehicles is substantial, with estimates suggesting that if penetration rates reach 5%, 10%, 30%, or 50%, the corresponding market sizes could be 94 billion, 188 billion, 565 billion, and 941 billion yuan respectively [47] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading companies like SF Express and other direct delivery companies, as well as the core components of unmanned logistics vehicles from an overseas perspective [4][43]
厦钨新能(688778):2024年报及2025年一季报点评:出货持续增长,看好NL正极、固态等多业务放量
Changjiang Securities· 2025-05-25 23:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 13.3 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 23.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 490 million yuan, down 6.3% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 450 million yuan, a decline of 4.1% year-on-year [2][4] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.5% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 130 million yuan, an increase of 10.0% year-on-year but a decrease of 1.4% quarter-on-quarter [2][4] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.98 billion yuan, down 9.8% year-on-year and 12.8% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 120 million yuan, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year but a decrease of 7.8% quarter-on-quarter [2][4] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The company achieved a sales volume of 98,600 tons for positive materials in 2024, maintaining a growth trend. The sales of ternary materials (including lithium iron phosphate and others) reached 52,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 40%, driven by the growth of high-end pure electric vehicles. The sales of lithium cobalt oxide were 46,200 tons, up 33.5% year-on-year, mainly benefiting from subsidy policies and demand from AI mobile applications [9] - In Q1 2025, the sales volume of positive materials was 24,800 tons, with lithium cobalt oxide sales at 12,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 46.55%. Ternary positive sales were 10,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 31.53% due to a high base effect from the previous year [9] Profitability - The estimated profit per ton for the company in 2024 faced pressure due to a decline in processing fees for ternary positives and the impact of raw material price drops. The iron lithium business remained in a loss state, while hydrogen materials maintained stability with sales of hydrogen storage alloys at 3,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.73% [9] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 740 million yuan in 2025, corresponding to a PE ratio of 28 times, and continues to be recommended [9]
赛维时代(301381):2024年报、2025Q1点评:硬件去库对利润端阶段拖累,营运指标逐季度企稳向好
Changjiang Securities· 2025-05-25 23:30
丨证券研究报告丨 联合研究丨公司点评丨赛维时代(301381.SZ) [Table_Title] 赛维时代 2024 年报&2025Q1 点评:硬件去库 对利润端阶段拖累,营运指标逐季度企稳向好 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2024 年公司实现营业收入 102.75 亿元,同比增加 56.55%,实现归母净利润 2.14 亿元,同比 减少 36.19%。2024Q4 公司实现营业收入 34.74 亿元,同比增加 58.66%;实现归母净利润 0.19 亿元,同比减少 83.46%。2025 年 Q1,公司实现营业收入 24.58 亿元,同比增加 36.65%; 实现归母净利润 0.47 亿元,同比减少 45.35%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 李锦 于旭辉 罗祎 秦意昂 SAC:S0490514080004 SAC:S0490518020002 SAC:S0490520080019 SAC:S0490524110002 SFC:BUV258 SFC:BUU942 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 赛维时代(3013 ...
国轩高科(002074):出货增速高于行业,盈利能力稳中有升
Changjiang Securities· 2025-05-25 23:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 35.392 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.98%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.207 billion yuan, up 28.56% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit reached 263 million yuan, showing a significant increase of 125.86% [3][10]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 10.217 billion yuan, a growth of 3.97% year-on-year, with a net profit of 794 million yuan, up 22.88% year-on-year, and a non-recurring net profit of 205 million yuan, increasing by 213.66% [3][10]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.055 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.61%, with a net profit of 101 million yuan, up 45.55% year-on-year, and a non-recurring net profit of 15 million yuan, increasing by 37.59% [3][10]. Summary by Sections Sales and Profitability - The company achieved a total lithium-ion battery sales volume of 19.75 billion ampere-hours in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 40.38%, driven by strong market demand [10]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 18%, an increase of 2.23 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margin for the power battery system was 15.14%, up 1.33 percentage points, while the gross margin for the energy storage battery system reached 21.75%, an increase of 4.64 percentage points [10]. Cost and Expenses - The total expense ratio for 2024 was 14.76%, a slight increase of 0.09 percentage points year-on-year. The sales expense ratio decreased to 0.86%, down 0.07 percentage points, while the management expense ratio was 5.45%, down 0.05 percentage points [10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue upgrading its product and customer structure in the domestic power market, enhancing its market share and profitability through partnerships with B-class vehicle customers. The expansion of production capacity in overseas markets, including the U.S., Czech Republic, and Morocco, is also anticipated to contribute positively [10].
壹石通(688733):盈利短期承压,新材料稳步推进
Changjiang Securities· 2025-05-25 23:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 120 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.5% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 7.6%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -20 million yuan, with a non-recurring net profit also at -20 million yuan [2][4]. - The company’s gross margin for Q1 2025 reached 16.13%, an increase of 1.19 percentage points year-on-year, but a decrease of 1.59 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The total expense ratio for Q1 2025 was 35.15%, down 1.84 percentage points year-on-year but up 5.50 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [11]. - The company is expected to maintain a high growth rate in the sales of its products, particularly the barium titanate, and the optimization of the sales structure is anticipated to drive profit recovery. New materials such as thermal conductive aluminum and flame retardant materials are expected to contribute to performance growth in 2025 [11]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 120 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.5% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7.6%. The significant growth in lithium battery coating materials contributed to this performance [2][4][11]. Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 16.13%, reflecting a year-on-year improvement of 1.19 percentage points. However, the margin decreased by 1.59 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. The expense ratio was 35.15%, showing a year-on-year decline but a quarter-on-quarter increase [11]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see continued growth in the sales of barium titanate, with a stable sales structure likely to enhance profitability. Additionally, the solid oxide fuel cell and high-purity quartz sand are projected to achieve small-scale sales in 2025, further validating the material platform strategy [11].
恩捷股份(002812):2025年一季报分析:出货同比高增,静待盈利修复
Changjiang Securities· 2025-05-25 23:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a significant year-on-year increase in Q1 2025 revenue, reaching 2.73 billion yuan, which is a 17.2% increase compared to the previous year and a 1.1% increase from the previous quarter. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 83.6% year-on-year to 30 million yuan, although it turned profitable compared to the previous quarter. The non-recurring net profit also saw a decline of 80.4% year-on-year, also turning profitable quarter-on-quarter [2][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue was 2.73 billion yuan, reflecting a 17.2% year-on-year growth and a 1.1% quarter-on-quarter growth. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 30 million yuan, down 83.6% year-on-year but improved from a loss in the previous quarter. The non-recurring net profit also decreased by 80.4% year-on-year, yet showed a quarter-on-quarter recovery [2][4]. Cost and Expenses - The company experienced a significant increase in its expense ratios, with total expenses reaching 17.08% of revenue in Q1 2025, up 2.09 percentage points year-on-year but down 2.53 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The sales expense ratio was 1.30%, up 0.52 percentage points year-on-year, while the management expense ratio was 6.97%, up 1.30 percentage points year-on-year [9]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain positive growth in shipments throughout the year. Current prices are stabilizing, and there is a low likelihood of significant downward adjustments. The company has signed procurement agreements with LGES and Weilan, which may help expand its overseas market and solid-state applications. The introduction of new products such as solid-state electrolytes and electrolyte membranes is anticipated to enhance profitability [9].
美股量子标的异动,关注量子科技投资机遇
Changjiang Securities· 2025-05-25 14:42
行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 美股量子标的异动,关注量子科技投资机遇 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 5 月 22 日,美股量子计算股集体爆发,龙头股 IonQ 股价飙升近 37%,D-Wave Quantum 攀 升 24%,Rigetti Computing 大涨 26%,Quantum Computing 也上涨超过 14%。此次美股 IonQ、 D-Wave Quantum、Rigetti Computing、Quantum Computing 大幅上涨,其背后是政府支持与 行业前景大幅提振投资者信心。产业端与政策端共振,有望加速量子科技产业商业化进程。建 议关注量子科技全产业链,重点关注量子计算及量子通信龙头企业。 丨证券研究报告丨 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 SAC:S0490520030004 SFC:BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 美股量子标的异动,关注量子科技投资机遇 [Table_S ...
海外公用事业穿越周期的启示:管制藩篱与市场浪潮的共舞
Changjiang Securities· 2025-05-25 14:41
行业研究丨深度报告丨公用事业 [Table_Title] 管制藩篱与市场浪潮的共舞——海外公用事业 穿越周期的启示 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 在全国统一电力市场稳步建设、电力体制改革持续深化的背景下,PJM 市场机制或作为我国的 重要参考之一,其对安全性、可靠性的重视以及对成本完善的回收机制有望成为电力体制改革 的关键设计方向。美国饱和的电力需求下,发电企业在资本市场上的优异表现已经足够令人印 象深刻,而对于我国电力行业而言,全社会电力需求增长的潜力远未释放,我们有充分的理由 和信心相信电力体制改革所带来的机制完善,将会推动电力等公用事业企业翻开新一轮估值与 业绩共振的华篇。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 张韦华 司旗 宋尚骞 SAC:S0490517080003 SAC:S0490520120001 SAC:S0490520110001 SFC:BQT627 刘亚辉 SAC:S0490523080003 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 27 %% %% %% %% research.95 ...
六部门发布管理办法,关注网证相关投资机会
Changjiang Securities· 2025-05-25 14:32
丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 六部门发布管理办法,关注网证相关投资机会 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 5 月 23 日,公安部、国家网信办等 6 部门联合对外发布《国家网络身份认证公共服务管理办 法》,推进国家网络身份认证公共服务建设,进一步推广应用公共服务。当前,网络信息安全事 件频发,随着《管理办法》的正式发布,部分网络应用或加速接入相关认证系统,或驱动认证 系统建设需求及相关认证配套设备需求的大幅提升,惠及相关产业链。建议关注 1)参与网络 身份认证平台建设的企业;2)在 CTID 及 eID 等相关技术有所积累的企业;3)网络身份认证 涉及的硬件厂商。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 SAC:S0490520030004 SFC:BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 六部门发布管理办法,关注网证相关投资机会 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 5 月 23 日,公安部、国家互联 ...
中集集团(000039):回购股份彰显信心,看好公司长期发展
Changjiang Securities· 2025-05-25 14:14
丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨中集集团(000039.SZ) [Table_Title] 中集集团:回购股份彰显信心,看好公司长期发 展 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 中集集团发布公告,为了积极响应国家政策导向,提振股东信心,董事会同意根据上述 H 股回 购一般性授权,按照《香港联合交易所有限公司证券上市规则》、《公司章程》及其他适用法律 法规的规定,实施 H 股股份回购。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 赵智勇 臧雄 曹小敏 屈奇 SAC:S0490517110001 SAC:S0490518070005 SAC:S0490521050001 SAC:S0490524070003 SFC:BRP550 SFC:BVO790 中集集团(000039.SZ) cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 中集集团:回购股份彰显信心,看好公司长期发 2] 展 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 中集集团发布公告,为了积极响应国家政策导向,提振股东信心,董事会同意根据上述 H ...