丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨钢铁 [Table_Title] 铁矿石人民币结算比例加大，印证国内定价权强化 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近期，中国矿产资源集团或已与全球第一大矿企必和必拓签署协议，最快从今年第四季起，对 铁矿石现货贸易实施人民币结算，印证国内对铁矿石定价权的强化。随着以西芒杜为代表的铁 矿增量项目投产放量，铁矿石供需的趋松或驱动价格中枢下移，叠加国内"反内卷"约束成材 供给，铁矿有望向成材端让利，使得黑色产业链利润分配回归合理。不过，基于西芒杜大规模 量增或在 2026 年落地，短期中国和四大矿对铁矿石定价权的博弈或将持续演绎。 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 赵超 易轰 吕士诚 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490520080012 SAC：S0490525080005 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUY139 SFC：BUZ394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1 [Table_Title2] 铁矿石人民币结算比例加大，印证 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 结构性市场与房企阿尔法 ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 周期反转仍需时间，但重点城市中心区域新房具备结构性机会，品牌辨识度和投资精准度是胜 负手。从"二分法"的结构化视角对房企进行定价，一是老货占比相对较小、减值计提相对充 分，则老货将来的预亏额就越小；二是新拿地的强度和兑现度相对较高，则新货销售和盈利能 力就更有保障，价值创造体量也就越大；两者共同决定地产股的潜在弹性。老货拖累低、新货 贡献大的双优品种中，首选建发国际；老货有一定拖累、但新货贡献显著的边际品种中，首选 绿城中国，尤其是市值潜在弹性较大；此外，华润置地因商业稳健增长而具备长期配置价值。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 刘义 侯兆熔 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 结构性市场与房企阿尔法 2] ——房地产行业周度观点更新 [Table_ ...

丨证券研究报告丨 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 100%关税：短期 TACO 重演，长期配置黄金 ——海外热点冷思考系列一 报告要点 于博 黄帅 敬成宇 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 [Table_Summary] 特朗普拟对华加征 100%关税、对关键软件实施出口管制，推动市场避险情绪升温，下周 A 股 或将出现阶段性回调，中债利率可能小幅下行。但本轮"关税威胁"远超合理区间，落地可行 性极低，更多是特朗普惯用的谈判策略。1930 年《斯姆特-霍利关税法》的历史经验表明，高 关税不仅难以增加收入，还会拖累经济增长、加剧通缩和失业。本轮特朗普关税力度更强、贸 易逆差规模更大、全球化绑定更深。因而，依赖关税的财政增收策略大概率适得其反。从资产 角度来看，弱美元趋势难以逆转，黄金依旧具备配置价值。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490525070005 SFC：BUX667 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 100%关税：短期 2] TACO 重演，长期配置黄金 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "Positive" for the agricultural products sector [11] Core Viewpoints - The swine breeding industry has transitioned from a rapid growth phase to a stable development phase, with medium to long-term capacity regulation becoming the new normal. High-quality breeding companies are expected to see significant improvements in profit margins and profitability levels [2][20] - The report highlights a divergence in profitability within the breeding sector, with leading companies still achieving good performance despite overall industry challenges. The poultry sector is experiencing a recovery in yellow-feathered chicken prices, which is gradually improving profitability [2][20] - The aquaculture feed industry continues to show strong performance, with leading companies like Haida Group expected to achieve simultaneous growth in volume and profit [2][20] - The pet food sector is experiencing sustained high growth in proprietary brands, with overseas factories demonstrating resilience in exports. Key recommendations include Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co [2][20] Summary by Sections Swine Breeding Sector - The swine breeding sector is gradually entering a loss phase, with significant divergence in profitability among listed companies. The average price of live pigs in Q3 2025 is approximately 14.0 CNY/kg, down 4% quarter-on-quarter and 28% year-on-year. The average profit for self-bred pigs is about 42 CNY/head, while purchasing piglets incurs a loss of 118 CNY/head [7][21] - High-quality breeding companies have a complete cost below 12 CNY/kg, maintaining a profit of over 200 CNY/head, while companies with higher costs may still face losses [7][21] - Future pig prices are expected to rise in Q4 2025 and 2026 due to increased supply indicators and policy-driven capacity restrictions [26] Feed Sector - The feed industry maintains growth in production, with aquaculture feed demand recovering. Haida Group's feed sales are expected to grow by about 20% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with net profit in the feed sector expected to increase by 30%-40% year-on-year [8][43] - The report notes that the structure of feed products is improving, with higher-margin products gaining a larger share of sales [8][43] Poultry Sector - The yellow-feathered chicken prices have bottomed out and are recovering, which is enhancing the profitability of the poultry breeding sector [2][20] Pet Food Sector - The pet food sector continues to see high growth in proprietary brands, with Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co recommended for their resilience in overseas sales. Online sales growth for the pet food industry is around 7.7%, with Guibao's proprietary brand growing by 21% [9][20]

丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨吉利汽车（0175.HK） [Table_Title] 极氪 9X 正式上市，重新定义国产豪华旗舰 SUV 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 9 月 29 日，吉利极氪 9X 正式上市，定位大型 SUV，共推出 4 款车型，MAX 版/Ultra 版/Hyper 版曜黑版上市售价分别为 45.59/47.59/54.99/58.99 万元（包含 1 万元限时超级置换 金权益），相较预售价下降约 2 万元，上市 13 分钟大定突破 1 万辆。各品牌新能源转型顺利推 进，规模效应逐步凸显将带来盈利向上弹性。公司燃油车基盘稳固，联营企业创新出海模式持 续打开海外新空间。智能化战略即将开启，加速提升智驾能力。整车强势新周期下盈利具备较 大弹性。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 张扬 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524030004 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 吉利汽车（0175.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [9][11]. Core Insights - The company has a strong foundation in environmental protection and is transitioning into the biogas sector, leveraging its existing capabilities to tap into the growing demand for renewable energy [2][5]. - The biogas market is expected to experience rapid growth, driven by policy support and the need for low-carbon energy solutions, with the company's production capacity projected to reach 1 million cubic meters per day by 2027 [2][6]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing green premium associated with biogas, which enhances its cost competitiveness against traditional energy sources [7][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a long history in environmental services, focusing on waste treatment and expanding into biogas production as part of its growth strategy [19][21]. - It has established itself as a leader in the domestic leachate treatment market and is diversifying into various segments of municipal and industrial environmental protection [5][19]. Biogas Market Potential - Biogas, derived from organic waste, presents a dual value proposition of environmental protection and energy generation, making it a key area for development under carbon neutrality goals [6][46]. - The global biogas production is projected to grow significantly, with an expected compound annual growth rate of 14% from 2024 to 2040, highlighting the market's potential [6][53]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company faced challenges in its traditional business segments, leading to a decline in revenue; however, operational cash flow is expected to improve in 2024 [26][36]. - Earnings per share (EPS) projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 0.05, 0.50, and 0.86 yuan, respectively, indicating a recovery trajectory [9][11]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on resource acquisition and technological innovation to drive its biogas projects, with plans to enhance its operational capabilities through partnerships and research collaborations [8][42]. - The integration of traditional waste management with biogas production creates a synergistic ecosystem that enhances both environmental and economic outcomes [42][43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [6]. Core Insights - The release of the Sora2 model and Sora App on October 1 has significantly enhanced model capabilities, leading to rapid popularity in markets like the United States. The AI version of "Douyin" has emerged as a strong competitor [3][4]. - Tencent's recent launch of a series of multimodal models has resulted in impressive performances on various industry rankings, indicating strong competitive positioning in the AI sector [3][4]. - The report identifies promising segments within the AI industry, including interactive AI toys and tools, internet giants with advantages in traffic, models, and data, vertical markets that have successfully established business models overseas, and AI+ gaming companies [3][4]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The Sora2 model and Sora App were launched on October 1, showcasing significant improvements in capabilities and quickly gaining traction in the U.S. market [3]. - Tencent's multimodal model, Hunyuan Image 3.0, has been recognized as the best-performing open-source model globally, with a parameter scale of 80 billion [3][4]. Event Commentary - The Sora App has surpassed competitors like Google Gemini and ChatGPT in the U.S. App Store rankings shortly after its release, validating the demand and market potential in the AI video sector [3][4]. - Tencent's Hunyuan Image 3.0 has demonstrated superior performance in various assessments, establishing itself as a leader in the industry [3][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the storage industry is "Positive" and is maintained [8] Core Viewpoints - The current storage cycle is fundamentally different from previous cycles, driven by AI demand which is continuously increasing storage needs. The industry logic is transitioning from a supply-side controlled production cycle to a demand-driven cycle where supply gaps are gradually forming [2][6] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the storage industry due to the prevailing growth logic [2][6] Demand Side Summary - For HDD and SSD, the "train-inference-train" cycle of large models is leading to a sustained expansion in storage demand. Nearline HDD is currently experiencing supply shortages, with delivery times extending beyond 52 weeks. North American CSP manufacturers are locking in HDD production capacity for 2026 based on demand [12] - DRAM demand is also expected to grow, driven by the increasing capacity and shipment of HBM alongside the growth of Server DRAM (e.g., DDR5). If AI PCs and AI mobile devices continue to develop, overall DRAM demand is likely to increase further [12] Supply Side Summary - Over the past few years, storage manufacturers have not effectively released large-scale production capacity, focusing instead on AI-related demand. New capacity takes a long time to come online, leading to a relatively rigid supply release based on utilization rate improvements [12] - The current storage cycle is characterized by a shift from a supply-controlled price cycle to a demand-driven cycle with gradually forming supply gaps [12] Price Outlook - The storage market is expected to see price increases in 2026 due to strong AI demand, with manufacturers continuing to tilt production capacity towards server products, thereby squeezing consumer-grade supply. According to TrendForce, storage prices are expected to rise continuously [12] Industry Chain Summary - The report highlights key companies within the storage industry chain, including module and distribution companies, niche storage firms, supporting industry chain companies, and core players in the Changxin/Changcun industry chain [23]

Group 1: Japanese Central Bank ETF Exit Plan - The Bank of Japan plans to gradually exit ETFs at a rate of 0.05% per year, starting from the September 2025 monetary policy meeting[2] - The exit strategy emphasizes appropriate pricing, minimizing losses, and avoiding market disruption[2] - The current value of ETFs held by the Bank of Japan is approximately 37 trillion yen, accounting for 74% of the total Japanese ETF market[23] Group 2: Market Impact and Historical Context - Following the announcement, the Nikkei 225 index experienced a slight adjustment but quickly recovered in subsequent trading days[2] - The Bank of Japan's ETF purchases, initiated in 2010, were aimed at stabilizing the market during economic downturns, with a peak annual purchase limit of 12 trillion yen in 2020[5] - The gradual exit could take over a hundred years to fully divest based on the current reduction rate[23] Group 3: Broader ETF Market Trends - In China, public fund management institutions oversee assets totaling 36.25 trillion yuan, with a notable increase in passive fund inflows despite overall poor performance[6] - The Chinese ETF market has seen significant growth in bond and commodity ETFs, with net inflows exceeding 200 billion yuan in 2025[7] - The competitive landscape for ETFs in China is shifting towards innovative and thematic products, moving away from broad-based ETFs[7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Viewpoints - The company is deeply engaged in ultrasonic technology and is making continuous breakthroughs in new fields such as semiconductors and liquid cooling, which is expected to create a diversified growth curve [2][12]. - The company has a strong platform capability and a superior "equipment + consumables" business model, indicating robust profitability and long-term growth potential [2][12]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company focuses on ultrasonic technology applications in various sectors including new energy, semiconductors, and medical fields, with plans to explore more markets [2][12]. - The company has successfully received formal orders from well-known domestic clients for advanced ultrasonic scanning microscopes and ultrasonic die bonding machines in the semiconductor advanced packaging sector [12]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 150 million and 242 million yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 71 and 44 times [12][18]. Market Performance - The company has shown a significant market performance compared to the CSI 300 index, with a notable increase in stock price over the past 12 months [12].