上 市 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 食品饮料 2024 年 10 月 28 日 口子窖 (603589) ——24Q3 点评：收入业绩承压 现金流相对稳健 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 10 月 28 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 42.79 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 52.74/33.88 | | 市净率 | 2.6 | | 息率（分红 / 股价） | 3.51 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 25,594 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,322.20/10,685.89 | | 注："息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | | | | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 09 月 30 日 | | 每股净资产（元） | 16.93 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, despite lowering profit forecasts due to underperformance in Q3 [6]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1-3 2024 revenue of 2.349 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 9.06%, and a net profit of 120 million yuan, down 30.33% year-over-year [6]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 27.17%, an increase of 1.50 percentage points year-over-year, while the net margin was 3.47%, down 4.18 percentage points year-over-year [6][9]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 202 million yuan, 324 million yuan, and 469 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 53, 33, and 23 [6][7]. Financial Data Summary - As of September 30, 2024, the company had a net asset value per share of 5.82 yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 38.12% [3]. - The total revenue for 2023 was 3.680 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 3.309 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 10.1% [7][12]. - The company’s operating profit for 2024 is estimated at 212 million yuan, with a net profit of 206 million yuan [12]. Market Position and Strategy - The company continues to strengthen its core business and expand into strategic sectors such as new energy and automotive applications, while also enhancing its international presence [9]. - Despite facing price competition and seasonal demand fluctuations, the company has managed to maintain a relatively high gross margin through cost reduction strategies [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 15.345 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.06%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 6.32% to 554 million yuan [4] - The company continues to expand its store network, adding 7 new stores in Q3 2024, with a total of 100 stores by the end of Q3, indicating a strong growth strategy [4] - Consumer sentiment is improving, leading to a resilient sales growth, with retail sales of gold and jewelry reaching 4.32 billion yuan in Q3 2024, up 9.17% year-on-year [4] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 8.67%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, but it showed a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.87 percentage points, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [4] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach 20.157 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.8% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 673 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a decrease of 4.7% compared to the previous year [5] - The gross margin is anticipated to stabilize around 9.2% in 2024, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the release of capacity and an industry upturn, driven by both oil and bulk shipping segments [5]. - The company's Q3 2024 performance showed a net profit of 8.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 11.67%, primarily impacted by exchange rate fluctuations [5]. - The oil and bulk shipping segments contributed 89.5% to the company's net profit, with the oil tanker segment experiencing a net profit of 3.85 billion yuan, down 28% year-on-year [5]. - The company is actively optimizing its fleet structure and has placed orders for new energy-efficient vessels, expecting rapid capacity expansion in the coming years [5]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company forecasts total revenue of 27.347 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.7% [6]. - The net profit for 2024 is projected at 4.895 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 1.2% year-on-year [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated to be 0.60 yuan, with a projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12 [6]. - The company plans to reduce its profit forecast for 2024-2026 due to lower-than-expected demand impacting freight rates [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that Jiangsu Jinzu's financing costs are marginally improving, with convertible bonds supplementing capital and maintaining an attractive dividend yield [5][7] - The company's performance in the first nine months of 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 39.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 22.3 billion yuan, up 9.1% year-on-year [5] - The report anticipates continued growth in the company's asset scale and a stable asset quality, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.92% [5][6] Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price: 5.28 yuan - One-year high/low: 5.92/4.20 yuan - Price-to-book ratio: 1.7 - Dividend yield: 6.06% - Circulating A-share market value: 30,571 million yuan [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2022: 4,346 million yuan; 2023: 4,787 million yuan; 2024E: 5,141 million yuan; 2025E: 5,552 million yuan; 2026E: 5,870 million yuan - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2022: 2,412 million yuan; 2023: 2,660 million yuan; 2024E: 2,898 million yuan; 2025E: 3,117 million yuan; 2026E: 3,259 million yuan - Earnings per share for 2022: 0.81 yuan; 2023: 0.63 yuan; 2024E: 0.50 yuan; 2025E: 0.54 yuan; 2026E: 0.56 yuan [4][10] Asset and Liability Management - The company’s financing lease asset scale reached 123.7 billion yuan, a 12% increase from the beginning of the year - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.92%, with a provision coverage ratio of 426% [5][6] - The annualized financing cost is 2.76%, down from 2.78% in the first half of 2024 [6] Capital and Dividend Outlook - The capital adequacy ratio improved to 18.6%, up 2.9 percentage points from the end of 2023, following the conversion of convertible bonds [7] - The diluted dividend yield for 2024E is projected at 5.41%, indicating continued attractiveness [7] Profitability Forecast - The report raises profit forecasts, expecting net profits for 2024-2026 to be 29.0 billion yuan, 31.2 billion yuan, and 32.6 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 9%, 8%, and 5% [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 20.399 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.815 billion yuan, up 11.23% year-on-year [4]. - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.243 billion yuan, a 9.83% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.362 billion yuan, growing by 10.50% year-on-year [4]. - The company is expected to continue its diversified development strategy, focusing on product categories, distribution channels, and international expansion to support its growth targets [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company’s revenue from soy sauce, seasoning sauce, oyster sauce, and other categories was 3.075 billion, 583 million, 1.105 billion, and 1.02 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +8.7%, +10.2%, +7.8%, and +15.1% [4]. - The cash flow from sales in Q3 2024 was 7.26 billion yuan, representing a 12.5% increase year-on-year, slightly outpacing revenue growth [4]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 improved to 36.61%, a year-on-year increase of 2.07 percentage points, attributed to better raw material costs and economies of scale [4]. Management and Strategy - The company successfully completed a management transition, with new board members and management team members who have extensive experience within the company and industry [4]. - The company aims to maintain double-digit growth during its 14th Five-Year Plan period, enhancing its manufacturing and user engagement capabilities while diversifying its product offerings [4]. Market Position and Outlook - The report highlights potential catalysts for stock performance, including product price increases, new product launches, and market expansion [4]. - The company’s projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 6.231 billion, 7.002 billion, and 7.778 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 11%, 12%, and 11% respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhaoli Pharmaceutical, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [5][7]. Core Insights - Zhaoli Pharmaceutical reported a revenue of 2.045 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 39.59%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 421 million yuan, up 46.93% year-on-year [5][6]. - The company’s product line, particularly the Wuling series, continues to show rapid growth, with Wuling capsule sales increasing by 30.24% in quantity and 22.67% in revenue year-on-year [6][7]. - The company has introduced an equity incentive plan, granting up to 6.605 million restricted shares, which reflects confidence in future performance and aims for significant net profit growth over the next few years [7][8]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the total revenue is projected to reach 2.506 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 29.0%. The net profit is expected to be 550 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 43.7% [9][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 0.78 yuan, with a projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 22x [9][10]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to be 70.9% in 2024, with a return on equity (ROE) of 18.6% [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [4]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated resilience in same-store operations while accelerating the cultivation of new stores to build momentum [4]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 5.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.23%, and a net profit of 2.45 million yuan, down 95.74% year-on-year [4]. - The company is expanding its business model by integrating dining, banquet, and hotel services, with a focus on the "Fumao" hotel brand, which has a unique competitive advantage [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 18.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.81%, but a net profit of 830 million yuan, down 58.92% year-on-year [4]. - The gross profit margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 20.23%, a decrease of 4.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 17.37%, down 7.91 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company plans to open 10 "Fumao" hotels by the end of 2024, aiming for significant growth in operational scale and performance by 2025 [4]. Future Projections - The company expects net profits of 1.48 billion yuan, 2.85 billion yuan, and 4.09 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting adjustments due to new store ramp-up and initial investment impacts [4]. - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 38, 20, and 14 respectively, with a target valuation of 24 times PE for 2025, indicating a potential upside of 22% [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][6]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit of 1.656 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 37.62% [5]. - The company is actively replacing its fleet and optimizing its structure to capitalize on the market cycle, having disposed of an old MR tanker and completed the delivery of four old vessels [5]. - The company’s operational performance has generated excess Time Charter Equivalent (TCE), with adjusted Q3 TCE levels estimated between 28,000 to 30,000 USD/day, slightly above market averages [5]. - The company has shown commitment to shareholder returns through share buybacks and plans for major shareholder increases [5]. - New ship orders are primarily driven by replacement needs, with current shipyard capacities booked until 2028 [5]. - The profit forecast has been revised downward due to unexpected declines in freight rates, with net profit estimates for 2024-2026 adjusted to 20.33 billion, 17.44 billion, and 17.95 billion yuan respectively [5]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 6.197 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.8% [6]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 2.033 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 30.5% [6]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve to 36.0% in 2024 [6]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 18.4% in 2024 [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [8]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2024 results that met expectations, with revenue of 3.77 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%, and a net profit of 397 million yuan, up 36.7% year-on-year [3][8]. - The company focuses on the kitchen and bathroom market, expanding its product categories to include health-related products, which is expected to contribute to revenue growth [4][8]. - The company is enhancing its overseas operations, particularly in North America and Europe, and has established partnerships with major retailers, which strengthens customer loyalty and competitive advantage [5][8]. - The company is investing in global production capacity, including a new facility in Mexico, which aims to mitigate tariff risks and respond to customer demands [5][8]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 26.1%, slightly down by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by currency fluctuations and changes in product mix [6][8]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 513 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.7%, and an estimated PE ratio of 12 [9][8]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 4.33 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.10 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 17.8% [9][8]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 14.6% in 2024, indicating a solid performance in generating profits from shareholders' equity [9][8].