Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Neutral** rating for Momo Inc (MOMO US) with a target price of $7.40, representing a potential upside of 0.1% from the current price of $7.39 [1][4] Core Views - Momo's core business and Tantan are expected to remain under pressure due to ongoing business adjustments and weak social consumption trends [1] - Overseas business is growing rapidly, partially offsetting the decline in core business, with total revenue expected to decrease by 5% YoY in 2025 [1] - The company's market capitalization of $1.3 billion is below its net cash position of $1.4 billion as of Q3 2024, and its shareholder returns are leading among internet companies, with quarterly buybacks of $30-60 million and a dividend yield exceeding 7% [1] Financial Performance Q3 2024 Results - Revenue declined 12% YoY to RMB 2.68 billion, slightly better than expected, with adjusted net profit of RMB 490 million, down 19% YoY but above expectations [2] - Adjusted net margin was 18%, down 2 percentage points YoY, mainly due to increased operating expenses from higher overseas app revenue share and overall revenue decline [2] - Momo's live streaming and value-added services revenue declined 14% and 18% YoY respectively, while new app revenue grew 41% YoY, driven by overseas social product growth [2] - Tantan's revenue fell 28% YoY, with MAU and quarterly paying members declining by 900k and 100k respectively [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to decline 12% YoY in Q4 2024, with the decline narrowing in 2025 as ecosystem adjustments conclude [2] - 2025 net profit forecast is revised down by 11% due to changes in revenue structure and ongoing new business investments [2] - For 2024E, revenue is forecast at RMB 10.526 billion, with adjusted net profit of RMB 1.3 billion, representing a net margin of 12.3% [3] - 2025E revenue is projected at RMB 10.015 billion, with adjusted net profit of RMB 1.308 billion and a net margin of 13.1% [3] Business Segments - Momo's revenue is expected to decline 3% YoY in Q4 2024, while Tantan's revenue is forecast to drop 26% YoY [16] - New independent social apps accounted for 16% of total revenue in Q3 2024, up from 2% in Q1 2021 [12] - Momo's live streaming revenue declined 45% YoY in Q3 2024, while value-added services revenue fell 19% YoY [14] Valuation and Shareholder Returns - The target price is based on 7x 2025E P/E ratio, raised from $5.90 to $7.40 [1] - The company's shareholder return policy is leading among internet peers, with quarterly buybacks of $30-60 million and a dividend yield exceeding 7% [1]

| --- | --- | |-----------------------|------------------------------| | 交银国际研究 宏观策略 | | | | | | 全球宏观 | 2024 年 12 月 9 日 | 市场为何对非农反弹选择"视而不见"—美国 11 月非农就业点评 2024 年 11 月美国非农新增就业 22.7 万人，市场预期为 20 万人，前值由 1.2 万 人修正为3.6万人。11月失业率升至4.2%，持平预期，前值4.1%。劳动参与率 降至 62.5%，低于预期的 67.7%和 10 月的 62.6%。11 月平均时薪同比增速维持 在 4.0%，预期为 3.9%，10 月为 4.0%；平均时薪环比增 0.4%，高于预期的 0.3% ，10 月为 0.4%。平均每周工时为 34.3 小时，上月修正为 34.2 小时。 李少金 Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1849 10 月非农新增就业数据因飓风及罢工双重影响而大幅下降，且天气因素导致 不能外出就业的人数大幅增加，并导致就业调查回复率明显下降，参考性大打 折扣。随着飓风、罢工 ...

Industry Rating - The report assigns a **Leading** rating to the pharmaceutical industry, indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the benchmark index over the next 12 months [1] Core Views - The national centralized procurement of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) decoction pieces and proprietary Chinese medicines has officially started, covering 45 and 95 varieties respectively, with key factors for selection being a price reduction of over 20% and a price difference of 1.2 times [1][3] - The 27-province alliance for medical consumables procurement has announced results, with an 85% selection rate and an average price reduction of 70% [1][4] - The pharmaceutical sector has shown slight recovery after significant fluctuations, with potential for further recovery due to low valuations and expected favorable fiscal and medical insurance policies [1] Sector Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose 1.0% while the Hang Seng Healthcare Index rose 0.3%, underperforming the broader market [1][13] - Sub-sector performance: Life Science Tools & Services (+5.8%), Healthcare Equipment & Supplies (+2.8%), Biotech (+1.4%), Healthcare Providers & Services (+1.1%), Healthcare Technology (+0.5%), Pharmaceuticals (+0.2%) [1][13] Key Company Developments - **Akeso Biopharma**: Positive results from a Phase Ib/II study of cadonilimab in PD-(L)1 resistant NSCLC, showing a 6-month PFS rate of 56.9% and median PFS of 6.5 months [5] - **Simcere Pharmaceutical**: Approval of Xianbixin® sublingual tablets for acute ischemic stroke, offering improved bioavailability [6] - **CSPC Pharmaceutical**: CRB-701 (SYS6002) granted Fast Track designation by the FDA for metastatic cervical cancer [8] - **Hengrui Medicine**: Two innovative drugs, fluzoparib and apatinib, approved for new indications in HER2-negative breast cancer [9] - **Innovent Biologics/Hutchmed**: Tyvyt® (sintilimab) combined with Elunate® (fruquintinib) conditionally approved for advanced endometrial cancer [10] - **Merck/Kelun-Biotech**: Sacituzumab tirumotecan (Sac-TMT) granted Breakthrough Therapy Designation by the FDA for EGFR-mutated NSCLC [11] Valuation Overview - The healthcare sector's TTM P/E ratios: Pharmaceuticals (11.2x), Life Science Tools & Services (15.2x), Biotech (21.3x), Healthcare Equipment & Supplies (12.3x), Healthcare Providers & Services (11.4x), Healthcare Technology (23.4x) [21] Top Stock Performers - **Cloudbreak Pharma**: +32.1% [13] - **CanSino Biologics**: +16.0% [13] - **WuXi Biologics**: +12.1% [13] Key Investment Recommendations - Focus on innovative drug companies with strong short-term catalysts and high growth potential, such as Akeso Biopharma, Legend Biotech, and Everest Medicines [1] - Pay attention to leading prescription drug companies with potential for both earnings growth and valuation multiple expansion, such as Simcere Pharmaceutical and Sino Biopharmaceutical [1] - Consider consumer-oriented private medical services and medical aesthetics companies, as well as pharmaceutical distribution companies with high dividend yields [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for New World Development (17 HK) with a target price of HKD 11.44, representing a potential upside of **74.5%** from the current price of HKD 6.56 [1][3] Core Views - New management is expected to improve operational efficiency, particularly in the mainland China business, with the appointment of Ms. Wong Siu Mui as CEO [1] - The company has completed the sale of NEW WORLD SPORTS DEVELOPMENT LIMITED (NWSPL) for HKD 416.7 million, which is expected to help recover investment costs and reduce financial burdens [2] - Sales progress is strong, with HKD 3.7 billion in attributable sales completed in Hong Kong (62% of FY2025 guidance) and RMB 4.8 billion in contracted sales in mainland China, with expectations to reach RMB 7 billion by the end of 2024 (64% of full-year guidance) [2] - The stock is currently trading at around **0.1x P/B**, which is believed to reflect most negative factors, with potential re-rating catalysts including improved operational efficiency, strong FY2025 sales progress, reduced capex, and potential interest rate cuts [3] Financial Summary - Revenue is expected to decline by **34.4% YoY** in FY2024 to HKD 35,782 million but rebound by **20.2% YoY** in FY2025 to HKD 42,999 million [4] - Core profit is projected to decrease by **47.5% YoY** in FY2024 to HKD 1,377 million but recover by **19.8% YoY** in FY2025 to HKD 1,648 million [4] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to improve from **12.0x** in FY2024 to **10.0x** in FY2025 [4] - Dividend yield is forecasted to increase from **3.0%** in FY2024 to **4.0%** in FY2025 [4] Operational Highlights - The company has established separate operating committees for Hong Kong and mainland China businesses to enhance operational efficiency [1] - The launch of Guangzhou Kaixuan New World is expected to contribute to mainland China sales, with contracted sales projected to reach RMB 7 billion by the end of 2024 [2] Industry Context - The report covers other Hong Kong and mainland China real estate companies, including Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK), Link REIT (823 HK), and Henderson Land (12 HK), with varying ratings and target prices [8]

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------|---------------|----------| | | | | | | 医药 | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | | | 港元 46.40 | 港元 56.20↑ | +21.1% | 2024 年 12 月 4 日 云顶新耀 (1952 HK) 耐赋康成功纳入医保、EVER001 膜性肾病初步数据优异，上调目标价 可逆 BTK 抑制剂 EVER001：聚焦潜在蓝海领域，取得积极阶段性临床结 果。截至 9 月 13 日，试验数据显示，在已完成 36 周治疗的低剂量组患者 中，81.8%（9/11）的患者实现临床缓解，高剂量组中已完成 24 周治疗的 患者已有 85.7%（6/7）实现临床缓解。除低剂量组的 1 例患者外，其他所 有低剂量组和高剂量组患者分别在完成 36 周和 24 周治疗都实现了免疫学 完全缓解，且未观察到任何严重的肝毒性。在肾病领域，膜性肾病的发病 率仅次于 IgA 肾病，且呈现明显上升趋势。目前中国、美国、欧洲、日本 分别有 200 万、8-10 万 ...

| --- | --- | |-------------------------|------------------------------| | 交银国际研究 \n消息快报 | | | 科技 | 2024 年 12 月 3 日 | | | | | 科技行业 | | | | | 美加大对华半导体行业出口限制和实体清单和我们的思考 12 月 2 日，美国商务部属下的工业和安全局（BIS）宣布修订了新的《出 口管理条例》，旨在进一步限制中国在人工智能和高端半导体领域的发展 。根据 BIS 的公告，新规定涵盖了对 24 种半导体制造设备和 3 种半导体开 发 生 产 软 件 工 具 （ EDA ） 的 新 管 制 措 施 ； 对 高 带 宽 存 储 器 （ High Bandwidth Memory，HBM）的新管制；以及针对合规和转移问题提出新的 "红旗警告"。与此同时，BIS 还在实体清单中新增了 140 个条目，并进了 14 项修改，涉及 100+家设备制造商、24 家半导体晶圆厂和实验室等， 以 及两家投资公司。 对于主要设备厂商供应影响有限。对于这次增加实体清单中占主体的半导 体设备商，我们整理了半导体 ...

宁德 亿纬 国轩 中创 时代 高科 后 新航 兰钧 锂能 300014 CH eee HK 300750 CH 002074 CH 3931 HK 行业研究 2024年12月02日 FS H Talif 分析师 . 李柳晓 陈庆 瑞浦 次 覆 估值回归合理区间+低空经济催化,板块情绪回升。 LFP技术优势 + 供应链优势,中国企业剑指全球。 关注技术迭代的机会,增混电池、固态电池 .. 短期内快充/超充和混动/增程是重点布局方向。 马太效应显著,短期关注盈利能力变化趋势。 重点研究公司:宁德时代 | 亿纬锂能 | 国轩高科 中创新航 | 瑞浦兰钧 交银国际研究 行业剖析 电池行业剖析 行业底部反转正当时，关注技术变革机会 估值回归合理区间+低空经济催化，板块投资情绪回升。当前万得锂电池 指数 TTM 市盈率为 34 倍，较 2024 年 9 月低点反弹近 40%，接近三年历史 平均，行业估值逐步回到合理区间。从公募基金持仓角度看，2024 年 3 季 度公募基金对锂电板块的持股占比和配置比例均有提升，投资情绪正逐步 走出低谷。2024 年以来低空经济政策和固态电池技术催化频发，带动板 块情绪。仅在 11 月， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Neutral** rating for China Gas (384 HK) with a target price of HKD 5.92, representing a potential downside of 8.1% from the current price of HKD 6.44 [1][3] Core Views - China Gas' 1H FY25 earnings declined by 3.8% YoY to HKD 1.76 billion, missing market expectations by approximately 15% due to losses from joint ventures, higher taxes, and increased minority interests [1] - Retail gas sales volume grew by only 1.9% YoY in 1H FY25, dragged down by weak industrial gas demand, which grew by only 1% YoY [2] - The company's gas sales gross margin improved by RMB 0.02 per cubic meter to RMB 0.59, driven by residential gas price adjustments in 32 cities [2] - New residential connections declined by 14% YoY in 1H FY25 due to reduced rural coal-to-gas conversions and weak property sales [2] - The report downgrades FY25-27 earnings forecasts by 13-19%, reflecting slower industrial gas growth and reduced new residential connections [2] - Management expects the spin-off of value-added services to the US market to provide a second growth driver, but the timeline remains unclear [2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is expected to decline by 6.8% YoY in FY25 to HKD 75.9 billion, followed by a gradual recovery with 2.7% and 2.9% growth in FY26 and FY27, respectively [4] - Net profit is forecasted to grow by 18.8% YoY in FY25 to HKD 3.78 billion, with further growth of 6.7% and 5.7% in FY26 and FY27, respectively [4] - EPS is expected to decline by 4.6% YoY in FY25 to HKD 0.70, with subsequent growth of 6.7% and 5.7% in FY26 and FY27, respectively [4] - The company's P/E ratio is projected to increase from 8.8x in FY24 to 9.3x in FY25, before declining to 8.7x and 8.2x in FY26 and FY27, respectively [4] - Dividend yield is expected to remain stable at 5.4% from FY25 to FY27, with a maintained dividend payout of HKD 0.35 per share [4] Operational Data and Forecasts - Total retail gas sales volume is expected to grow by 2.2% YoY in FY25 to 24.04 billion cubic meters, with growth slowing to 2.5% and 2.7% in FY26 and FY27, respectively [8] - Residential gas sales volume is forecasted to grow by 0.5% YoY in FY25 to 8.97 billion cubic meters, while industrial gas sales are expected to decline by 3.3% YoY to 14.65 billion cubic meters [8] - The gas sales gross margin is projected to remain stable at RMB 0.53 per cubic meter from FY25 to FY27 [8] - New residential connections are expected to decline by 5.2% YoY in FY25 to 1.27 million households, with further declines of 4.6% and 7.6% in FY26 and FY27, respectively [8] Valuation and Peer Comparison - China Gas is trading at a discount to its peers, with a FY25E P/E of 9.3x compared to the sector average of 12.0x [9] - The company's FY25E P/B ratio of 0.63x is below the sector average of 1.0x [9] - Among peers, China Gas has the lowest potential upside of -8.1%, compared to 27.4% for Kunlun Energy (135 HK) and 24.6% for ENN Energy (2688 HK) [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan (3690 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 226.00, indicating a potential upside of 35.0% from the current closing price of HKD 167.40 [1][4]. Core Insights - Meituan's Q3 2024 performance was strong, with revenue reaching RMB 93.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22%, surpassing consensus expectations. Adjusted net profit grew by 124% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 14%, up 6.2 percentage points from the previous year [1][3]. - The core business and new initiatives showed growth, with core business revenue increasing by 20% and new business revenue by 29% [1][2]. - The report projects revenue growth rates of 22% for 2024 and 15% for 2025, with core business revenue expected to grow by 21% and 17% respectively [3][12]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 936 billion, with a net profit margin of 14% and an adjusted operating profit margin of 21% [1][6]. - The report estimates that Meituan's revenue for 2024 will be RMB 337.2 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 21.8% [5][12]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected to be RMB 44.7 billion, reflecting an 85.9% increase year-on-year [5][12]. Business Segment Performance - The food delivery segment saw a year-on-year growth in revenue, driven by improved advertising monetization and reduced user subsidies [2][3]. - Flash purchase orders increased by nearly 35% year-on-year, with significant growth in user numbers and transaction frequency [2][3]. - The hotel and travel segment experienced a 50%+ increase in order volume, with GTV and revenue growth around 25% [2][3]. Valuation and Market Position - The report maintains previous valuation expectations, forecasting a net profit growth of approximately 25% for 2025, corresponding to a PEG ratio of 0.9 [3][12]. - Meituan's long-term competitive advantages include accumulated industry experience, strong traffic, and brand reputation [3][12].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" with a target price of HKD 24.00, indicating a potential upside of 26.8% from the current closing price of HKD 18.92 [1][3][4]. Core Insights - The sales momentum for the drug Amelot is strong, with three major indications expected to be approved within a year. The company anticipates that these approvals will drive annual sales growth of over 20% from 2024 to 2025, reaching a sales target of RMB 6 billion by 2026 [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from compliance investigations affecting competitors, which may allow it to capture market share in first-line and second-line treatments [2]. - The company has a robust pipeline with several new products and indications expected to launch between 2025 and 2026, including an oral antifungal drug and multiple oncology products, supported by a cash reserve exceeding RMB 21 billion [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 12,704 million for 2024, RMB 13,334 million for 2025, and RMB 14,854 million for 2026, reflecting growth rates of 25.7%, 5.0%, and 11.4% respectively [5][11]. - Net profit estimates are RMB 4,364 million for 2024, RMB 4,052 million for 2025, and RMB 4,754 million for 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 32.9%, -7.1%, and 17.3% [5][11]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 0.74 for 2024, RMB 0.68 for 2025, and RMB 0.80 for 2026, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.9 for 2024 and 25.8 for 2025 [5][11].