Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 156.00, indicating a potential upside of 42.9% from the current price of HKD 109.20 [7]. Core Insights - The company has turned profitable in Q2 2024, reporting an adjusted non-GAAP operating profit of USD 48 million, a significant improvement from a loss of USD 193 million in Q2 2023. The operating cash outflow has narrowed to USD 404 million [1]. - The strong performance is attributed to the rapid growth in global sales of the drug Zebrutinib, which increased by 107% year-on-year and 30% quarter-on-quarter to USD 637 million, with U.S. sales growing by 114% year-on-year [1]. - The report projects an increase in the peak global sales forecast for Zebrutinib from USD 4.4 billion to USD 5.2 billion [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been raised by 13-18%, reflecting a more optimistic outlook on Zebrutinib sales and adjustments in gross margin and operating expense forecasts [2]. - The expected revenues are USD 3.463 billion for 2024, USD 4.366 billion for 2025, and USD 5.252 billion for 2026, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 40.8%, 26.1%, and 20.3% respectively [3][8]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of USD 410 million by 2026, compared to a projected loss of USD 762 million in 2024 [3][8]. Key Financial Metrics - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 86.0% by 2026, up from 84.1% in 2024 [8]. - The report indicates a significant reduction in operating expenses, with R&D and SG&A expense ratios decreasing to 49% and 48% respectively by 2024 [1]. - The company’s cash flow situation is projected to improve, with free cash flow expected to turn positive by 2025 [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of $7.50, indicating a potential upside of 64.5% from the current price of $4.56 [1][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to exceed revenue expectations in Q2 2024, with projected collections of 16.1 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 82%, driven primarily by the K12 business, which is expected to double in growth [1]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in marketing expenses due to strong collection growth and customer acquisition efforts during the summer, leading to an adjusted operating loss of 455 million RMB for Q2 2024 [1][2]. - The company is expected to maintain a high growth rate of over 60% in collections during Q3 2024, although revenue growth may be lower than collections due to various factors [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2,961 million RMB in 2023, 4,368 million RMB in 2024, 5,323 million RMB in 2025, and 6,291 million RMB in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.5%, 47.5%, 21.9%, and 18.2% respectively [3][11]. - The company is expected to incur a net loss of 675 million RMB in 2024, with a projected recovery to a profit of 237 million RMB by 2026 [3][11]. - The report highlights a significant increase in marketing expenses, projected to reach 2,684 million RMB in 2025, which will impact profitability [3][11]. Valuation - The valuation for the company's education business is adjusted to $7.50 per share based on a 20x P/E ratio for 2025, down from a previous estimate of $9.10 [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings (700 HK) with a target price of HKD 457, indicating a potential upside of 24.1% from the current closing price of HKD 368.20 [12][9][20] Core Insights - The report highlights strong growth in both domestic and overseas mobile game revenues, with domestic mobile game revenue expected to grow by 31% year-on-year in Q2 2024, significantly up from 9% in Q1 2024, driven by new game "Dungeon & Fighter: Origin" contributing approximately RMB 5.7 billion [9][10] - Overseas mobile game revenue is projected to increase by 47% year-on-year in Q2 2024, supported by Supercell's "Brawl Stars" maintaining high monthly revenue levels [9][10] - The advertising revenue is expected to grow by 16% year-on-year in Q2 2024, with a positive outlook on the long-term growth potential of the WeChat ecosystem [10] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The report estimates total revenue for Tencent in 2024 to reach RMB 663.1 billion, reflecting an 8.9% year-on-year growth, with net profit projected at RMB 203.7 billion, a 31.2% increase [11][17] - The report anticipates mobile game revenue to grow by 11% year-on-year in 2024, while PC game revenue is expected to decline by 4% due to high base effects from "Dungeon & Fighter" [2][11] Financial Metrics - The report provides a forecast for earnings per share (EPS) to be RMB 21.43 in 2024, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.8 times [11][17] - The projected dividend yield for 2024 is estimated at 0.9% [11] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Tencent's market position remains strong, with a significant share in both domestic and international gaming markets, bolstered by a robust pipeline of new game releases and sustained performance of existing titles [9][10][11]

Export Performance - In July 2024, China's exports increased by 7.0% year-on-year, lower than the expected 9.5% and the previous value of 8.6%[1] - The trade surplus narrowed to $84.65 billion, below the expected $98.35 billion and the previous value of $99.05 billion[1] - Machinery and electrical products accounted for nearly 60% of total exports, with a growth rate of 9.7%, contributing approximately 5.8 percentage points to overall export growth[2] Import Performance - Imports surged by 7.2% year-on-year in July, significantly exceeding the expected 3.2% and rebounding from a previous negative growth of -2.3%[1] - The increase in imports was primarily driven by machinery and raw materials, with integrated circuit imports growing by 15.5% and automatic data processing equipment imports expanding by 70.4%[4] - The two-year compound annual growth rate for imports improved from -4.7% to -2.9%[4] Sectoral Insights - Labor-intensive products and raw material exports showed significant declines, with agricultural product growth dropping from 10.1% to 2.0% year-on-year[2] - Automotive exports, including chassis, grew by 13.9%, while ship exports saw a remarkable increase of 54.6%[4] - Exports to the EU rose by 8.0%, while exports to ASEAN countries decreased from 15.7% to 11.4% year-on-year[4] Economic Outlook - The importance of domestic demand has been emphasized, with government initiatives aimed at boosting consumer spending and service consumption[2] - The recent expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and stabilization of the RMB exchange rate may provide additional support for domestic demand[2]

Employment Data - In July 2024, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 114,000, significantly below the expected 175,000 and revised previous value of 179,000[1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, higher than both the expected and previous rate of 4.1%[1] - The labor force participation rate slightly increased to 62.7%, above expectations and the previous month's 62.6%[1] Wage Growth and Job Sector Analysis - Average hourly earnings year-on-year growth slowed to 3.6%, below the expected 3.7% and last month's 3.9%[1] - The service sector and government job additions significantly slowed, with government jobs increasing by only 17,000 compared to the previous month's 43,000 and a 12-month average of 45,000[1] - The goods sector saw an increase in job additions from 11,000 to 24,000, indicating a divergence in sector performance[1] Labor Market Dynamics - The number of temporary layoffs increased by 249,000, contributing to the rise in the unemployment rate, which has now increased for four consecutive months[2] - Job openings remained relatively stable, decreasing slightly from 8.23 million in May to 8.18 million in June, with the job openings to unemployed ratio dropping to approximately 1.2, aligning with 2019 levels[2] - Average weekly hours worked decreased from 34.3 to 34.2, reflecting a slowdown in the labor market[2] Market Outlook - Following the July employment data, the market's expectation for a 50 basis point rate cut increased to 62%, although the analysis suggests that the labor market slowdown may not be as severe as perceived[2] - The report anticipates a potential rebound in employment data for August, suggesting that the labor market may stabilize[2]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 5.25-5.50% during the July FOMC meeting, marking the seventh consecutive pause in rate hikes, aligning with market expectations [1] - The language in the rate statement has shifted to a more neutral tone regarding inflation, reflecting increased confidence in the progress towards disinflation due to lower-than-expected inflation data in May and June [1][2] - For the first time in nearly two years, the Fed emphasized its dual mandate of inflation and employment, indicating a more balanced policy stance [1][2] Inflation and Employment Data - The July FOMC statement softened the wording regarding inflation progress, changing from "modest further progress" to "some further progress," and the description of inflation levels shifted from "remain elevated" to "somewhat elevated" [2] - Labor market data is now considered equally important as inflation data, with the Fed expressing a desire to avoid further cooling in the labor market [7] - The unemployment rate has risen above 4.0%, indicating a slowdown in the labor market, but overall employment conditions remain relatively healthy [7][6] Market Expectations and Future Outlook - The market anticipates a 90% probability of a rate cut in September, with expectations for a total of three rate cuts by the end of the year [9][12] - The upcoming Jackson Hole global central bank conference on August 22 is seen as a critical event for potential policy signals from Fed Chair Powell [14] - The current market pricing suggests a total of 150 basis points in rate cuts over the next 12 months, reflecting a belief in a non-typical easing cycle that may depend on economic data rather than a fixed schedule [12][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for TAL Education Group (TAL US) with a target price of **$13.80**, representing a potential upside of **52.0%** from the current price of $9.08 [1][2] Core Views - TAL Education's **Q1 FY2025 performance exceeded expectations**, with revenue reaching **$410 million**, a **50% YoY increase**, driven by strong demand for quality education training and learning device sales [1] - The company's **adjusted operating profit** was **$0.88 million**, significantly better than the expected loss of **$27 million** [1] - TAL Education plans to **increase investments in Q2 FY2025**, which may lead to a **decline in operating margin** to around **2%** [2] - The company's **learning device sales** are growing rapidly, with **nearly 100,000 units sold in Q1 FY2025**, and the higher-priced **xPad2** accounting for **over 50%** of sales [2] Financial Performance - TAL Education's **revenue growth** is expected to continue, with **FY2025E revenue** projected at **$2.07 billion**, a **38.9% YoY increase** [3] - The company's **non-GAAP net profit** is forecasted to reach **$100 million in FY2025E**, up from **$85 million in FY2024** [3] - **Gross margin** is expected to remain stable at around **55%** from FY2025E to FY2027E [9] Business Segments - **Learning Services**: Quality education revenue grew **over 50% YoY**, accounting for **over 45%** of total revenue, driven by strong growth in offline tutoring centers [2] - **Content Solutions**: Learning device sales are expected to grow **65% YoY in Q2 FY2025**, with the launch of the new **xPad Classic 2024** priced at around **$400** [2] Valuation - The target price of **$13.80** is based on a **25x P/E** for the education business and **2x P/S** for the learning device business [2] - The valuation reflects an expected **40% revenue growth** for FY2025 [2] Industry Context - TAL Education is part of the **education sector**, which includes other companies like **New Oriental Education & Technology (9901 HK)** and **Gaotu Techedu (GOTU US)**, both of which also have **Buy** ratings [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral [2][8]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of the year was HKD 1.22 billion, a decrease of 5.4% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 395 million, down 30.4% year-on-year, primarily due to increased curtailment rates and a higher market electricity proportion leading to lower electricity prices for existing projects [1][2]. - The average electricity price decreased by approximately 8% year-on-year, and the gross profit margin fell by 6.0 percentage points to 64.2% [1]. - The company has increased its proportion of lower-interest RMB loans from 13% at the end of last year to 22% by mid-year, resulting in a decrease in average borrowing costs from 6.05% to 4.71% [1]. - Despite the challenges, the company is still evaluating new projects with a strict assessment of a 10% curtailment rate and a 10% decrease in electricity prices, indicating that potential acquisition projects still have relatively high returns [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million HKD) is projected to be 2,432 in 2024, down 3.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 822 million HKD, reflecting a decrease of 17.2% [3][9]. - The company’s dividend per share is expected to be HKD 0.050 in 2024, with a dividend yield of 5.6% [3][9]. - The average tax rate is projected to increase to 26.0% in 2024, up from 23.4% in 2023 [7][9]. Market Performance - The stock price has seen a year-to-date decline of 37.76%, with a 52-week high of HKD 2.00 and a low of HKD 0.88 [5][4]. - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 1.00, reflecting a potential upside of 12.4% from the current price [2][8]. Industry Context - The report indicates that the solar power generation utilization rate in mainland China has decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 97%, with the National Energy Administration lowering the renewable energy utilization target from 95% to 90% [1]. - The report highlights that the pressure on consumption is expected to increase due to a significant rise in new installations, which could lead to further increases in curtailment rates and a wider market electricity proportion [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 40.40, indicating a potential upside of 37.2% from the current price of HKD 29.45 [10][2]. Core Insights - The company's oncology/immunology business exceeded expectations in 1H24, with revenue of USD 169 million, despite a year-over-year decline of 53% due to a one-time payment from Takeda in the previous year. The oncology product revenue grew by 59% to USD 128 million, driven by strong sales of furmonertinib in the U.S. market, which reached USD 131 million in 1H24 [1][2]. - Cost reduction and efficiency improvements have significantly increased the certainty of reaching breakeven by 2025, with operating expenses down 28% in 1H24. R&D expenses decreased by 34% to USD 9.5 million, while sales and administrative expenses fell by 15% [1][2]. - The company expects to maintain its guidance for full-year oncology/immunology revenue between USD 300-400 million, with potential upside based on upcoming milestones in Europe and Japan [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been adjusted, with 2024 expected revenue at USD 641 million, down from a previous estimate of USD 711 million, reflecting a 23.5% year-over-year decline. However, net profit is projected to improve significantly by 2025, reaching USD 37 million [3][6]. - The company’s DCF valuation model indicates an equity value of USD 4.513 billion, translating to a per-share value of HKD 40.40 for 2025 [5][6]. - The financial outlook shows a gradual recovery, with expected revenue growth of 11.9% in 2025 and 15.7% in 2026, alongside a projected return to profitability by 2025 [3][11].

交银国际研究 公司更新 新能源 2024 年 8 月 1 日 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 3.71 港元 4.09↓ +10.2% 信义光能 (968 HK) 发电业务拖累业绩，光伏玻璃行业进入产能出清阶段 低基数下光伏玻璃毛利率同比大幅提升，发电业务拖累业绩：公司 2024 年上半年实现收入 12.7 亿港元，同比+4.5%，归母净利 19.6 亿港元，同比 +41.0%，略超预告中值19.5 亿港元。由于产量增长，光伏玻璃销量同比增 长 12.2%，但产销率偏低导致存货环比大增 59%，分部收入增长 4.8%至 110.9亿港元，尽管销售均价下跌，但原燃料价格大跌导致成本下降更多， 分部毛利率在低基数下同比提高 6.3 个百分点至 21.5%，因售价下跌环比 则下降4.9个百分点。由于累计装机增长，光伏发电收入同比+3.8%至15.5 亿港元，但由于弃光率及市场电量比例提升，分部毛利率同比下降 4.9 个 百分点至65.5%。公司上半年自建光伏装机300兆瓦，向信义能源出售200 兆瓦，下半年无自建计划。人民币兑港元同比贬值 4.2%也对业绩造成了 负面影响。 扩产慢于预期，冷修老旧产能降低成本：公司 ...