证 券 研 究 报 告 炭黑行业跟踪点评 国际炭黑巨头再发涨价函，国内生产企业成 推荐（维持） 本优势凸显 事项： ❑ 国际炭黑巨头再发提价函。根据炭黑产业网，卡博特中国决定自 2026 年 3 月 15 日起，上调所有中国生产的特种炭黑产品的销售价格，上调幅度为 1800 元 /吨(含税)。卡博特称此价格调整适用于 2026 年 3 月 15 日或之后的订单。此次 已是卡博特炭黑 2026 年以来第二次发布涨价函。2 月 25 日，卡博特中国第一 次发布调价函。自 3 月 1 日起上调所有在售的橡胶炭黑价格，幅度 800 元/吨 （在 2 月价格基础上上调）。 评论： 基础化工 2026 年 03 月 20 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：孙维容 邮箱：sunweirong@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360526020001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 497 | 0.06 | | 总市值(亿元) | 62,837.67 | 5.00 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 56,275.56 | 5.59 | 相对指数表现 | % | ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 快递行业 2 月数据点评 1-2 月圆通累计业务量增速领跑，继续看好龙 推荐（维持） 头估值提升 2 月单票收入：申通 2.44 元，同比+19.6%（+0.4 元），环比+3.8%（+0.09 元）； 圆通 2.40 元，同比+3.15%（+0.08 元），环比+6.7%（+0.15 元）；韵达 2.25 元， 同比+15.4%（+0.30 元），环比+4.7%（+0.1 元）；顺丰 15.32 元，同比+6.76% （+0.97 元），环比+4.1%（+0.6 元）。申通同比涨幅最大。 证券分析师：张梦婷 1-2 月累计单票收入：圆通 2.31 元，同比-1.5%（-0.04 元），申通 2.39 元，同 比+16.6%（+0.34 元），顺丰 14.98 元，同比-0.8%（-0.12 元），韵达 2.19 元， 同比+10.0%（+0.2 元）。 ❑ 投资建议：1、电商快递：国内看龙头，海外看极兔。1）行业判断：我们在 3 月 14 日发布中通快递深度报告，提出观点，电商快递行业正步入高质量发展 新阶段，即：数据看"件量增速换挡，提质挺价优先，龙头份额提升"；数据 背 ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 2026 年 1-2 月全国房地产市场基本情况点评 房地产 2026 年 03 月 20 日 | | | | 华创证券研究所 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师：单戈 | 证券分析师：许常捷 | 证券分析师：杨航 | | 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com | 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com | 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com | | 执业编号：S0360522110001 | 执业编号：S0360525030002 | 执业编号：S0360525090001 | 事项： 2026 年 3 月 16 日，国家统计局发布 2026 年 1—2 月份全国房地产市场基本情况， 1-2 月份，全国房地产开发投资 9612 亿元，同比下降 11.1%，新建商品房销售面积 9293 万平方米，同比下降 13.5%，新建商品房销售额 8186 亿元，下降 20.2%。 评论： 新建商品房销售仍然疲弱，与小阳春二手房成交量出现背离。2026 年正月初八-正月二十 九，我们监控的 11 城二手房成交面积同比+6%；2026 年 1 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 代码 | 股价（元） | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | | | 扬农化工 | 600486.SH | 73.11 | 3.13 | 3.96 | 4.56 | 23.39 | 18.47 | 16.02 | 2.59 | 强推 | | 兴发集团 | 600141.SH | 32.21 | 1.55 | 2.02 | 2.36 | 20.73 | 15.91 | 13.67 | 1.71 | 强推 | 资料来源： Wind ，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2026 年 3 月 19 日收盘价，股价货币单位 以上市地为准 行业研究 农药行业重大事项点评 高油价利好刚需农药涨价，行业景气度有望 推荐（维持） 持续上行 事项： ❑ 农药春耕备货提 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal chemical industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [16]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strategic bullish outlook on the coal chemical sector due to rising oil prices, with Brent crude oil futures surpassing $104 per barrel and WTI crude oil futures exceeding $97 per barrel, indicating a significant increase in profitability for coal chemical products when oil prices rise above $80 per barrel [8]. - The report emphasizes the strategic value of coal in China's energy security, noting that coal consumption accounts for 51.4% of total energy consumption, with domestic coal production projected to reach 4.85 billion tons in 2025, a 1.4% increase year-on-year [8]. - The report identifies key products to focus on, including coal-to-olefins, coal-to-methanol, and PVC produced via the calcium carbide method, recommending specific companies such as Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, and Hualu Hengsheng for investment [8]. Company Summaries - **Baofeng Energy (600989.SH)**: Expected EPS of 2.04 RMB in 2026, with a PE ratio of 16.02 and a strong buy rating [4]. - **Satellite Chemical (002648.SZ)**: Expected EPS of 2.10 RMB in 2026, with a PE ratio of 12.57 and a strong buy rating [4]. - **Hualu Hengsheng (600426.SH)**: Expected EPS of 1.96 RMB in 2026, with a PE ratio of 18.57 and a strong buy rating [4]. - **Yuntu Holdings (002539.SZ)**: Expected EPS of 1.13 RMB in 2026, with a PE ratio of 12.51 and a recommendation rating [4]. - **Guanghui Energy (600256.SH)**: Expected EPS of 0.35 RMB in 2026, with a PE ratio of 20.19 and a strong buy rating [4].

主要观点 若中长期通胀预期明显上行，今年确实难降息，极端情况甚至需加息。许多联 储研究均表明，通胀预期脱锚不是与就业下行对等的风险，而是系统性、持久 且代价更高的威胁。虽然双重使命权衡非常复杂，但保持通胀预期锚定是首要 目标，在脱锚风险上升时，政策或需保持鹰派立场，即便存在短期就业的代价。 若在高油价冲击之下，中长期通胀预期保持基本平稳，今年美联储可能仍需要 降息；油价越高、持续时间越长，需要的降息幅度可能越大。高油价持续越久， 对美国居民的生活成本和消费冲击可能越大。两个直观的定量参考视角： 证 券 研 究 报 告 其一，油价上涨对消费的负面影响。微观层面，据美国汽车协会调查，汽油零 售价突破 4 美金/加仑（对应布油价约 110 美金/桶以上）后，64%的受访者会 减少开车（首要选择）、合并繁琐出行、减少购物/餐饮等。宏观层面，汽油零 售价上涨 10%，拖累汽油消费量下降约 2-3%，进而拖累消费约 0.06 个百分 点，若考虑汽油名义支出上升对其他消费的挤出效应，拖累或更大。相比 2 月 底，3 月 16 日当周，汽油零售价已上涨约 43%（冲突持续，仍可能继续上涨）。 第二，油价大涨，市场波动率攀升、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057.HK) [1][3] Core Views - The company aims to enhance shareholder returns while balancing volume and quality, showcasing its leading value in the industry [1] - ZTO Express is expected to benefit from the high-quality development phase of the e-commerce express delivery industry, with stable pricing and increased market share for leading companies [3] Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, adjusted net profit was CNY 2.695 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, with an adjusted net profit per ticket of CNY 0.26, down by CNY 0.03 [1] - For the full year 2025, adjusted net profit totaled CNY 9.51 billion, a decline of 6.3%, with an adjusted net profit per ticket of CNY 0.25, down 17.2% [1] - The company completed a business volume of 10.56 billion packages in Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, surpassing the industry growth rate by 4.2 percentage points [1] - The total package volume for 2025 reached 38.52 billion, up 13.3% year-on-year, maintaining a market share of 19.4% [1] Revenue and Cost Analysis - In Q4 2025, the average revenue per ticket was CNY 1.35, an increase of 2.9% year-on-year, primarily due to price increases for direct customers [2] - The average cost per ticket in Q4 2025 was CNY 1.01, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year, while transportation costs decreased by 8.9% [2] - The company expects to achieve a package volume of 42.37 to 43.52 billion in 2026, representing a growth of 10% to 13% [2] Shareholder Returns - ZTO Express announced a semi-annual dividend of USD 0.39 per share, maintaining a policy of distributing dividends at least 40% of the previous year's adjusted net profit [2] - The company plans to repurchase up to USD 1.5 billion in shares over the next two years [2] Future Projections - The report projects adjusted net profits for 2026 to be CNY 11.05 billion, with a corresponding PE ratio of 12.0 [4] - The target price for ZTO Express is set at HKD 242, indicating a potential upside of 23% from the current price of HKD 196.40 [5]

证 券 研 究 报 告 中通快递-W（02057.HK）2025 年报点评 强推（维持） 提高股东综合回报，量质并举彰显龙头价值， 持续强推 ❖ 公司发布 2025 年业绩： 财务数据：25Q4 调整后净利润 26.95 亿元，同比下降 1.4%，单票调整后净利 润 0.26 元，同比下滑 0.03 元，环比 Q3 持平（Q3 收到所得税返还 3.76 亿元 若剔除所得税返还的影响，根据我们测算，Q4 单票调整后净利润环比 Q3 提 升约 0.033 元）。25 年全年累计调整后净利润 95.1 亿元，同比下滑 6.3%，单 票调整后净利润 0.25 亿元，同比下滑 17.2%，降幅约 0.05 元。 业务量：25Q4 完成业务量 105.6 亿件，同比增长 9.2%，超过行业增速 4.2 个 pct，Q4 公司市场份额 19.6%，同比提升 0.8 个 pct，环比 25Q3 提升 0.2 个 pct。 25 年全年完成包裹量 385.2 亿件，同比+13.3%，实现市占率 19.4%，同比持 平。2025 年散件业务量持续提升，25Q4 实现日均 980 万件，同比增长超 38%。 单票收入：25Q4 单 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Li Auto-W (02015.HK) [1] Core Insights - Li Auto reported a net profit of 0.2 billion yuan in Q4 2025, marking a year-on-year decrease of 35 billion yuan but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.4 billion yuan. The total revenue for Q4 2025 was 28.8 billion yuan, down 35% year-on-year but up 5.2% quarter-on-quarter [1][7] - The company is expected to experience a turnaround in sales driven by new model launches and improved management efficiency. The i6 model is entering stable delivery phases, with monthly delivery capacity expected to reach 20,000 units [1][7] - Organizational restructuring is aimed at enhancing R&D and sales efficiency, with a focus on improving collaboration and operational quality [1][7] Financial Performance Summary - For the full year 2025, Li Auto achieved total revenue of 112.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 22%, and a net profit of 1.1 billion yuan, down 69 billion yuan year-on-year [1][3] - Key financial metrics for 2026E include total revenue projected at 131.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.9%, and a net profit of 0.96 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 14.3% [3][8] - The company’s gross margin for Q4 2025 was 17.8%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.5 percentage points [1][7] Sales and Production Outlook - The sales volume for Q4 2025 was 109,000 units, down 31% year-on-year but up 17% quarter-on-quarter. The average selling price (ASP) for vehicles was 250,000 yuan, showing a slight decline [1][7] - The company plans to launch the next-generation L9 and L9 Livis models in Q2 2026, with the L9 Livis priced at 559,800 yuan, featuring significant technological upgrades [1][7] Management and Strategy - Li Auto is implementing a "store partner plan" to enhance operational quality and efficiency in its direct sales system, which is expected to improve profitability [1][7] - The company’s management capabilities and forward-looking strategies are viewed as robust, positioning it well for recovery and growth in the AI era [1][7]

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 地缘冲击暂不明朗，降息仍需等待——美联 储 3 月议息会议点评 1）经济增速方面，上调 2026-2028 年以及更长期的 GDP 增长预期。预计 2026 年、2027 年、2028 年和更长期的实际 GDP 增速分别为 2.4%（前值 2.3%）、 2.3%（前值 2.0%）、2.1%（前值 1.9%）、2.0%（前值 1.8%）。 2）就业方面，上调 2027 年的失业率预期。2026 年和 2028 年失业率水平分别 持平为 4.4%、4.2%，2027 年失业率上调 0.1 个百分点至 4.3%。 3）通胀方面，上调今明年的 PCE 通胀以及核心 PCE 通胀预期。2026 年 PCE 和核心 PCE 预期分别上调 0.3 个百分点、0.2 个百分点至 2.7%、2.7%，2027 年 PCE 通胀与核心 PCE 通胀预期均上调 0.1 个百分点为 2.2%、2.2%。 4）点阵图方面，3 月点阵图预计 2026 年、2027 年各降息一次，中值与 12 月 持平。3 月点阵图美联储对于今明后三年的利率展望基本维持，意味着 2026 年、2027 年仅 ...