行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 保险行业周报（20251208-20251212） 四家险企拟新发债合计 142 亿，险资举牌再 推荐（维持） 添一例 本周行情复盘：保险指数上涨 2.41%，跑赢大盘 2.49pct。保险个股表现分化， 平安+3.1%，众安+2.26%，阳光+1.93%，太保+1.68%，新华+1.45%，友邦+0.89%， 国寿-0.22%，太平-1.34%，人保-1.47%，财险-2.75%。10 年期国债收益率 1.84%， 较上周末-1bp。 本周动态： 人身险标的 PEV 估值： A 股：国寿 0.87x、平安 0.77x、新华 0.75x、太保 0.62x。 H 股：平安 0.72x、太保 0.53x、新华 0.51x、国寿 0.5x、阳光 0.35x、太平 0.35x、 友邦 1.45x、保诚 1.07x。 财险标的 PB 估值：财险 1.24x、人保 A1.2x、人保 H0.86x、众安 1.1x、中国再 保险 0.58x。 （1）北京商报：12 月 12 日，监管发布了 5 个批文批复险企发债，共涉及 4 家 险企，合计发债规模不超过 142 亿元。中英人寿同日获批发行不 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the machinery industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [7]. Core Insights - The central economic meeting has set a favorable tone for the engineering machinery sector, with expectations of increased domestic demand driven by major infrastructure projects over the next 5-10 years [7]. - The nuclear fusion sector is entering an acceleration phase, with numerous project announcements expected to speed up industrialization [7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI and robotics in driving the next cycle of manufacturing, suggesting a shift in investment focus towards companies that can leverage these technologies [22][23]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The machinery industry is rated as "Recommended," reflecting confidence in its recovery and growth potential [7]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Valuations - Several companies are highlighted with strong buy ratings, including: - 汇川技术 (Inovance Technology) with a projected EPS growth from 2.11 to 3.00 from 2025E to 2027E, and a PE ratio decreasing from 35.04 to 24.64 [2]. - 法兰泰克 (Falan Tech) with a strong buy rating and projected EPS growth from 0.60 to 0.94 [2]. - 信捷电气 (Xinjie Electric) with a strong buy rating and projected EPS growth from 1.83 to 2.78 [2]. - 欧科亿 (Okai) with a strong buy rating and projected EPS growth from 0.71 to 1.25 [2]. - 兰剑智能 (Lanjian Intelligent) with a strong buy rating and projected EPS growth from 1.50 to 2.53 [2]. Industry and Company Investment Views - The machinery industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic policies and increased domestic demand, particularly in engineering machinery and nuclear fusion sectors [7][22]. - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in AI, robotics, and solid-state batteries, as these areas are poised for significant growth [22][24][25]. - The engineering machinery sector is anticipated to see a rebound due to ongoing infrastructure projects and a global recovery in demand [27]. Key Data Tracking - The report provides insights into the overall market performance, with the machinery sector showing a 1.3% increase in the recent week, outperforming major indices [11][12]. - The total market capitalization of the machinery industry is reported at approximately 64,548.73 billion yuan, with 634 listed companies [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the media industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [44]. Core Insights - The media sector has shown resilience, with a 0.26% increase in the media index, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.33% [8][6]. - Disney's partnership with OpenAI marks a significant shift towards AI-driven content creation, with a $1 billion investment aimed at integrating AI into its media operations [29][30]. - The gaming market remains strong, with Tencent's products dominating the iOS game sales charts, indicating robust consumer engagement [16][18]. - The film market is recovering, with total box office revenue reaching 448.68 billion yuan, approximately 79% of the 2019 levels, showcasing a steady recovery in audience attendance [21][24]. Market Performance Review - The media index increased by 0.26% last week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index decreased by 0.08%, placing the media sector 8th among all sectors [8][6]. - The gaming market continues to thrive, with top titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Delta Force" maintaining strong sales positions [16][17]. - The film market's total box office for 2025 has reached 448.68 billion yuan, with a recovery rate of approximately 79% compared to 2019 [21][24]. Industry News and Company Announcements - Disney's strategic partnership with OpenAI is expected to reshape content creation in the media industry, leveraging AI for enhanced storytelling [29][30]. - The upcoming release of "Avatar 3" has generated significant pre-sale interest, with ticket sales exceeding 11 million yuan, positively impacting related stock prices [29]. - The gaming title "Ningchao" won the "Player's Voice" award at TGA, highlighting the growing recognition of Chinese games in the global market [30].

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 关注中短端品种结构性机会 ——信用周报20251214 （3）4-5y 品种：收益率主要分布在 2.0%-2.5%区间，利差在 22-60BP 区间。 近期债市波动放大，利空因素扰动下 4-5y 品种信用利差有所走阔，票息配置 性价比边际回升。近期可适当关注波动市场中利差较高品种的结构性机会，逢 高配置票息资产，其中 3-4yAA+银行二永债与保险次级利差较高可优先关注。 （4）5y 以上品种：中高等级品种收益率主要分布在 2.25%-2.8%区间，利差在 25-60BP 区间。仍具备一定票息优势，但考验负债端稳定性，需凭借负债端稳 定性获取票息的时间价值，交易参与需因时而动。在当前债市扰动因素较多、 情绪偏弱的情况下，负债端稳定性偏弱的机构需谨慎，保险、自营等负债端稳 定性较强机构可重点关注，逢高配置。 ❖ 重点政策及热点事件： 1、中国冶金科工股份有限公司将多家子公司股权出售给五矿地产与中国五 矿。中国中冶此次打包售卖地产与矿山资产既能够补充资金反哺主业，也剥离 业绩承压的非主营业务，有利于估值修复。 2、渤海租赁股份有限公司拟召开持有人会议，审议豁免监票人 ...

Group 1: Economic Development Goals - Major provinces such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Hunan, and Beijing are expected to "shoulder the responsibility" for economic growth in 2024 and 2025[2] - Jiangsu's phrasing for next year's economic goals shifted from "higher positioning" to "scientifically and reasonably setting development goals," indicating a more cautious approach[3] - Hunan and Liaoning emphasize "adapting to local conditions" in their economic strategies, reflecting a tailored approach to development[3] Group 2: Unified Market Initiatives - The central economic work meetings for 2024 and 2025 outline plans for a unified national market, with 2024 focusing on "developing guidelines" and 2025 on "establishing regulations" for this market[4] - More provinces are highlighting their integration into the unified market, with Shandong and Jiangxi actively promoting their roles in this initiative[4] - The language around "in-depth rectification" of "involutionary competition" has become more specific, indicating a shift from general guidelines to actionable regulations[4] Group 3: Differentiated Provincial Strategies - Beijing and Shanghai are expanding their international technology innovation centers to enhance original innovation capabilities, aiming to become strategic hubs for technological advancement[4] - Guangdong and Henan are initiating pilot reforms for market-oriented allocation of resources, indicating a push towards more efficient economic structures[4] - The focus on high-quality development of the marine economy is highlighted by Shandong's commitment to becoming a modern marine economic hub[4]

观点：我们认为随着本周美联储"鹰派"降息落地后，铝价短暂走弱，但从基 本面看，本周全球铝库存总体小幅下行，LME+国内铝库存总计维持 120-125 万吨，安全库存维持低位，同时海外项目因电力问题减产+印尼增量释放缓慢 未来 2-3 年全球供需或维持紧平衡，未来库存或维持低位，对铝价形成支撑。 从金融属性看，本周国内外铜铝比创年内新高，铜铝在电力等需求有替代作用， 历史铜铝比多 3.3-3.7，意味铝仍有补涨空间，考虑美国当前铝升水接近 70%， 如果未来缺电逻辑造成美国地区减产，铝上涨弹性可能会更强。 证 券 研 究 报 告 有色金属行业周报（20251208-20251212） 美联储"鹰派"降息落地，短期金属价格或 推荐（维持） 震荡运行 ❑ 一、工业金属 ❑ 1、行业观点 1：美联储"鹰派"降息落地，短期金属价格或震荡运行 事件：根据中新社数据，美国联邦储备委员会 10 日宣布，将联邦基金利率目 标区间下调 25 个基点到 3.5%至 3.75%之间的水平，这是美联储今年以来第三 次降息，决策过程中有三名官员投票反对。降息会议后，市场对美联储未来降 息情况仍有分歧，根据 CME"美联储观察"，截至 1 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 汽车行业周报（20251208-20251214） 《汽车行业价格行为合规指南（征求意见稿）》 推荐（维持） 发布，建议提前布局明年机会 华创证券研究所 | 证券分析师：张程航 | 证券分析师：夏凉 | 证券分析师：李昊岚 | 联系人：张睿希 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电话：021-20572543 | 电话：021-20572532 | 邮箱：lihaolan@hcyjs.com | 邮箱：zhangruixi@hcyjs.com | | 邮箱：zhangchenghang@hcyjs.com | 邮箱：xialiang@hcyjs.com | 执业编号：S0360524010003 | | | 执业编号：S0360519070003 | 执业编号：S0360522030001 | | | 近期汽车销量运行相对平稳，但本周墨西哥宣布拟提高非自贸协定国家的关税，其中汽 车及零部件将被提升至 35%—50%，预计将对国内直接出口墨西哥的整车和零部件带来 影响。同时，国家市场监督管理总局发布了《汽车行业价格行为合规指南（征求意见稿）》， 进一步深化反内卷政 ...

- The report discusses multiple quantitative models for market timing, including short-term, medium-term, and long-term models. These models are constructed based on principles such as price-volume relationships, momentum, and calendar effects. The short-term models include the "Volume Model," "Feature Institutional Model," and "Feature Volume Model," while medium-term models include the "Limit-Up/Down Model" and "Up/Down Return Difference Model." The long-term model is the "Long-Term Momentum Model"[8][11][12][13] - The construction process of these models involves combining signals from different time horizons and strategies. For example, the "Volume Model" evaluates market activity through trading volume, while the "Momentum Model" focuses on price trends. The "Limit-Up/Down Model" identifies market sentiment by analyzing the frequency of limit-up and limit-down events. The "Up/Down Return Difference Model" measures the difference between upward and downward returns to gauge market direction[8][11][12] - The evaluation of these models suggests that combining signals from different models enhances robustness. For instance, some models are defensive, while others are aggressive, allowing for a balanced approach. The report emphasizes that simplicity in model design often leads to better generalization and performance[8][11][12] - Backtesting results for these models indicate varying levels of effectiveness. For example, the "Long-Term Momentum Model" is currently bullish, while the "Up/Down Return Difference Model" shows a positive outlook across all broad-based indices. The "Feature Institutional Model" is bullish, whereas the "Feature Volume Model" is bearish. The "Volume Model" remains neutral across all indices[11][12][13]

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 华创交运|低空经济周报（第 59 期） 多地政府十五五规划建议写入"低空经济" 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：吴晨玥 交通运输 2025 年 12 月 14 日 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 推荐（维持） 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 证券分析师：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080004 联系人：刘邢雨 邮箱：liuxingyu@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 121 | 0.02 | | 总市值(亿元) | 33,163.64 | 2.78 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 28,692.20 | 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the consumer services industry, highlighting optimism about service consumption potential [1]. Core Viewpoints - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of domestic demand and plans to implement measures to boost consumption, including a focus on enhancing the supply of quality goods and services [4]. - The report suggests that service consumption is expected to be a key driver for domestic demand in 2026, with potential growth in holiday policy optimization and consumption voucher issuance [4]. - Key investment targets include hotels, human resources services, duty-free sectors, gaming companies, internet platforms, integrated tea dining, innovative tourism sites, and the sports sector [4]. Industry Basic Data - The consumer services industry comprises 55 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 498.804 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 457.081 billion yuan [1]. Relative Index Performance - The consumer services sector experienced a decline of 0.76% this week, while the overall A-share market rose by 0.27% and the CSI 300 index fell by 0.08% [7]. - The sector's performance over the past month shows a relative underperformance compared to the CSI 300 index [2][7]. Weekly Industry Insights - The report notes that the social services sector's stock performance was mixed, with notable gains in companies like China High-Tech and China Oriental Education, while others like Haidilao and Wanda Hotel Development faced declines [4][19]. - The report also highlights significant announcements from various companies, including share buybacks and management changes [34]. Upcoming Shareholder Meetings - Several companies in the consumer services sector have scheduled shareholder meetings in the coming month, including Long White Mountain and Chongqing Department Store [35].