证 券 研 究 报 告 美光科技（MU）FY2026Q1 业绩点评及业绩说明会纪要 各业务单元均创营收记录，毛利率大幅超过指引上限 会议地点：线上 事项： 2025 年 12 月 18 日，美光科技发布 FY26 Q1 报告，并召开业绩说明会。 评论： 1. 总体业绩情况：25Q4（即 FY26Q1）实现营收 136.43 亿美元（QoQ+20.6%， YoY+56.7%），高于指引中值（指引中值为 125 亿美元）。FY26Q1，公司总营 收、DRAM 和 NAND 营收、HBM 和数据中心营收以及各业务部门营收均创 纪录。公司 DRAM 和 NAND 营收创下新高得益于终端市场强劲需求推动的出 货量增长，以及行业 DRAM 和 NAND 供应紧张、定价策略有效和产品组合优 化推动的产品价格提升。FY2026Q1的Non-gaap毛利率为56.8%（QoQ+11.1pct， YoY+17.3pct），超过指引区间上限（指引为 51.5%上下浮动 100 个基点），主 要得益于更高的定价、有效的成本控制以及有利的产品组合。 2.数据中心市场预期及进展情况：公司 FY2026Q1 数据中心业务部门营收创下 24 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 财政"跨周期"的底气——11 月财政数据点评 事 项 11 月广义财政收入同比-5.2%，10 月同比-0.6%；11 月广义财政支出同比-1.7%， 10 月同比-19.1%。 主要观点 本月，税收收入在高基数上仍同比增长 2.8%、7 月份以来同比增幅高达 6.3%； 明年，我们判断财政收入端有三大逻辑支撑——牛市的税收效应、企业反内 卷、政府反内卷，或仍将成为财政"跨周期"的重要底气： ❖ 一、财政"跨周期"的底气 （一）背景：中央经济工作会议重提"跨周期"，财政部明确对标对表 12 月 12 日，蓝部长表示 "要对标、对表这次会议的要求，编制好明年的预算 盘子，抓好政策的实施，确保党中央的方针政策落地见效" ；财政部党组会议 提出 "按照中央经济工作会议部署安排，明年政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、 提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度， 提升宏观经济治理效能。" （二）理解：财政"跨周期"，收入端或是重要的底气来源 不考虑结转结余等沉淀资金，财政支出=财政收入+债务； 参考中央经济工作会议的表述，在 "保持" 支出总量的前提下，对债务 ...

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券深度报告】 高价高估新环境，推荐哑铃配置 ——2026 年转债年度投资策略 ❖ 2026 年权益市场展望：流动性强支撑，业绩与主题双线关注 2026 年流动性依然是市场的强支撑。权益市场呵护政策持续推进，权益宽基 指数稳健上行，使得公募规模、险资对股市投资规模等显著增长；股市也有持 续的流动性宽松政策指引，预期 2026 年权益市场流动性将延续强支撑。 主线行情酝酿中，部分行业已躁动。参考往年，至次年春节前后板块轮动的趋 势或将加速，也即进入主线行情酝酿期，而近期部分板块已开始躁动，如商业 航天、CPO 等。 估值抬升至中高区间后，可关注业绩修复。2025 年估值抬升贡献万得全 A 的 主要涨幅，估值水平到历史高位，潜在的估值担忧下：未来净利润及营收增速 预测与估值分位数尚有差距，或反应还有上涨空间；此外部分行业出现较明显 的 ROE 改善。 ❖ 2026 年转债市场展望：供需或逐步修复，估值或以震荡为主 供需：供给端有所改善，净变动延续收缩，债基需求仍有空间。2025 年供给 端新券发行同比增量，但仍处于历史相对低位，往后看供给恢复更依赖监管侧 的变化。供给收缩斜率相 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On December 18, 2025, half of the convertible bond industries rose, and the valuation compressed month - on - month. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.06% month - on - month, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.29%, the ChiNext Index fell 2.17%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.23%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.22%. The market style favored large - cap value stocks. The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market heated up [1]. - The convertible bond price center increased, and the proportion of high - price bonds rose. The overall weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 132.37 yuan, with no change from the previous day. The valuation compressed, with the 100 - yuan par - value fitted conversion premium rate at 32.29%, down 1.16 pct from the previous day [2]. - In the A - share market, the top three industries with the largest declines were power equipment (-2.22%), communication (-1.58%), and electronics (-1.51%); the top three industries with the largest increases were banks (+1.97%), coal (+1.89%), and petroleum and petrochemicals (+1.25%). In the convertible bond market, 16 industries rose, with the top three industries with the largest increases being medicine and biology (+1.31%), national defense and military industry (+1.26%), and building materials (+1.11%); the top three industries with the largest declines were non - bank finance (-2.09%), steel (-1.81%), and communication (-1.70%) [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 483.43, up 0.06% day - on - day, 0.07% in the past week, down 1.49% in the past month, and up 16.61% since the beginning of 2025 [7]. - The Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index closed at 234.78, up 0.28% day - on - day, down 0.11% in the past week, down 1.09% in the past month, and up 20.73% since the beginning of 2025 [7]. - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3876.37, up 0.16% day - on - day, down 0.62% in the past week, down 2.41% in the past month, and up 15.65% since the beginning of 2025 [7]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13053.97, down 1.29% day - on - day, down 1.97% in the past week, down 1.12% in the past month, and up 25.34% since the beginning of 2025 [7]. - The ChiNext Index closed at 3107.06, down 2.17% day - on - day, down 3.18% in the past week, up 0.06% in the past month, and up 45.08% since the beginning of 2025 [7]. II. Market Fund Performance - The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 63.906 billion yuan, up 3.43% month - on - month; the total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 1.676801 trillion yuan, down 8.59% month - on - month. The net outflow of the main funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 29.167 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond rose 0.16 bp to 1.84% [1][9]. III. Convertible Bond Price and Valuation - The overall weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 132.37 yuan, with no change from the previous day. The closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 195.15 yuan, down 0.62%; the closing price of bond - biased convertible bonds was 119.36 yuan, up 0.35%; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 129.03 yuan, with no change [2]. - The proportion of high - price bonds above 130 yuan was 53.89%, up 1.55 pct from the previous day. The proportion of bonds in the 120 - 130 (including 130) range decreased by 1.55 pct to 32.38%. The price median was 130.90 yuan, up 0.40% from the previous day [2]. - The 100 - yuan par - value fitted conversion premium rate was 32.29%, down 1.16 pct from the previous day; the overall weighted par value was 98.74 yuan, up 0.28% from the previous day. The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was 15.62%, up 0.67 pct; the premium rate of bond - biased convertible bonds was 85.17%, up 0.35 pct; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 26.46%, down 0.87 pct [2]. IV. Industry Performance - In the A - share market, 18 industries declined. The top three industries with the largest declines were power equipment (-2.22%), communication (-1.58%), and electronics (-1.51%); the top three industries with the largest increases were banks (+1.97%), coal (+1.89%), and petroleum and petrochemicals (+1.25%) [3]. - In the convertible bond market, 16 industries rose. The top three industries with the largest increases were medicine and biology (+1.31%), national defense and military industry (+1.26%), and building materials (+1.11%); the top three industries with the largest declines were non - bank finance (-2.09%), steel (-1.81%), and communication (-1.70%) [3]. - In terms of closing prices, large - cycle industries rose 0.02%, manufacturing industries fell 0.10%, technology industries rose 0.03%, large - consumption industries rose 0.18%, and large - finance industries fell 0.92% [3]. - In terms of conversion premium rates, large - cycle industries decreased by 0.44 pct, manufacturing industries increased by 0.046 pct, technology industries decreased by 0.81 pct, large - consumption industries decreased by 0.78 pct, and large - finance industries decreased by 0.71 pct [3]. - In terms of conversion values, large - cycle industries rose 0.39%, manufacturing industries fell 0.13%, technology industries rose 0.33%, large - consumption industries rose 0.52%, and large - finance industries fell 0.40% [3]. - In terms of pure - bond premium rates, large - cycle industries increased by 0.022 pct, manufacturing industries decreased by 0.08 pct, technology industries decreased by 0.018 pct, large - consumption industries increased by 0.22 pct, and large - finance industries decreased by 1.1 pct [4]. V. Industry Rotation - The banking, coal, and petroleum and petrochemical industries led the rise. The daily increase rates of the banking, coal, and petroleum and petrochemical industries in the stock market were 1.97%, 1.89%, and 1.25% respectively; the daily increase rates in the convertible bond market were 0.33%, 0.16%, and 0.04% respectively [59].

港股公司 证 券 研 究 报 告 康耐特光学（02276.HK）重大事项点评 强推（维持） [主要财务指标 Indicator_FinchinaSimpleHK] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 2,061 | 2,347 | 2,835 | 3,380 | | 同比增速(%) | 17.1% | 13.9% | 20.8% | 19.2% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 428 | 564 | 696 | 869 | | 同比增速(%) | 31.0% | 31.7% | 23.3% | 25.0% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.89 | 1.18 | 1.45 | 1.81 | | 市盈率(倍) | 48 | 41 | 33 | 27 | | 市净率(倍) | 13.0 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 12 月 17 日收盘价 其他轻工Ⅲ 2025 年 12 月 18 日 春节旺季临近，关注夸克 AI ...

Group 1: Profitability Insights - The ROE of the entire A-share market (excluding finance and oil) increased from 6.32% in mid-2025 to 6.37% by Q3 2025, primarily driven by improved sales net profit margins due to effective cost control[3] - Sales net profit margin rose from 4.65% to 4.69%, indicating effective cost management despite a decline in gross profit margin from 17.73% to 17.48%[13] - Asset turnover improved slightly from 56.21% to 56.37%, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency[28] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Among 17 industries, 10 are experiencing low capacity utilization and low capital expenditure/depreciation, indicating a poor current supply-demand balance but potential for future improvement[4] - Over two-thirds of industries have capacity utilization below historical medians, highlighting persistent demand weakness in the economy[41] Group 3: Valuation and Dividend Trends - In the past year, 24 out of 33 industries exhibited a trend of rising valuations and declining dividends, suggesting a marginal increase in market risk appetite[5] - The report identifies industries with high valuations and low dividends as needing caution, while those with low valuations and high dividends are seen as having better risk-reward profiles[53] Group 4: Dynamic Transmission of Profitability - Historical data shows that improvements in ROE and asset turnover typically lead capital expenditure by six months to a year, indicating a lag in investment response to profitability improvements[6] - Midstream manufacturing and upstream construction materials show a one-year lead of ROE over capital expenditure, while downstream goods show a six-month lead[64]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the real estate industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [38]. Core Insights - The real estate sector experienced a decline of 2.6% in the 50th week, ranking 28th among 31 primary industry sectors [7][12]. - New home transactions increased by 10% week-on-week, but year-on-year, new home sales decreased by 34% [18][19]. - The report highlights the need for developers to focus on high-precision land acquisition to ensure asset yield and suggests that regional deepening firms are better suited for the current market conditions [31]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The real estate index fell by 2.6% in the 50th week, ranking 28th among 31 sectors [7][12]. - The absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months was -11.1%, 5.3%, and -11.0%, respectively [2]. Policy News - Sichuan Province aims to enhance housing quality and promote the "Chuanju Good House" initiative as part of its 15th Five-Year Plan [14][15]. - Shandong Province introduced guidelines to support housing "old-for-new" exchanges to stimulate market activity [14][16]. Sales Data - In the 50th week, new home sales in 20 cities totaled 223 million square meters, with a daily average of 31.9 million square meters, reflecting a 10% increase week-on-week but a 34% decrease year-on-year [19][22]. - The total sales area for new homes from the beginning of the year to date is 96.76 million square meters, down 14% year-on-year [19][24]. Financing Trends - Most bond issuances this week were from local state-owned enterprises, with Financial Street issuing the largest scale of 81 billion yuan [27][28]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests three directions for finding alpha in the real estate sector: focusing on developers with high land acquisition precision, investing in leading shopping centers, and targeting leading real estate agencies [31].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [18]. Core Insights - The approval of L3 level conditional autonomous driving vehicles marks a significant milestone in China's intelligent connected vehicle industry, allowing two models from Changan and Jidu to conduct road trials in designated areas of Beijing and Chongqing [2][7]. - The core feature of L3 autonomous driving is that the system can perform all dynamic driving tasks under specific conditions without the driver needing to monitor continuously, which may shift accident liability from drivers to manufacturers [7]. - The intelligent driving industry is transitioning from a dual-driven model of policy and technology to a four-dimensional resonance involving policy, infrastructure, commerce, and globalization, with L3 level autonomous driving signaling strong commercial opportunities [7]. Industry Overview - The computer industry consists of 338 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 57,020.82 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 51,679.82 billion [4]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is -3.6%, 19.5%, and 12.7%, respectively, while the relative performance is -1.9%, 1.7%, and -3.0% [5]. Investment Recommendations - Suggested companies to focus on include Horizon Robotics, Hesai Technology, Suton Juchuang, Pony.ai, WeRide, Desay SV, Zhongke Chuangda, Jingwei Hengrun, Siwei Map, Hezhima Intelligent, Qianfang Technology, Wanjie Technology, Neusoft Group, Ruiming Technology, Guangting Information, and Jinli Technology [7].

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 航空行业 2025 年 11 月数据点评 国内客座率同比增幅继续维持，国际供需加速 推荐（维持） 恢复 ❑ 航司 11 月数据分析： 11 月：ASK 同比：春秋(15.6%) > 南航(8.7%) > 东航(6.5%) > 吉祥(6.1%) > 国 航(4.9%)，RPK 同比：春秋(18.0%) > 南航(10.4%) > 东航(10.4%) > 国航 (10.1%) > 吉祥(8.9%)； 1~11 月累计：ASK 同比：春秋(12.0%) > 东航(6.9%) > 南航(6.1%) > 国航 (3.3%) > 吉祥(2.3%) ，RPK 同比：春秋(12.0%) > 东航(10.9%) > 南航(8.0%) > 国航(5.6%) > 吉祥(3.4%)。 1)国内线：11 月：ASK 同比：春秋(16.3%) > 南航(5.6%) > 国航(3.9%) > 东航 (2.1%) > 吉祥(-0.5%)，RPK 同比：春秋(17.9%) > 国航(7.5%) > 南航(7.4%) > 东航(5.1%) > 吉祥(0.8%)； 1~11 月累计：ASK 同比：春秋(8.1%) ...

Group 1: Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply-demand gap for the midstream sector improved, with the demand-investment growth rate difference rising to 7.6% in November from 6.4% in October[1] - Midstream demand growth was 8.9% in November, down from 9.3% in October, while midstream investment growth fell to 1.3%[3] - The demand-investment growth rate difference for midstream has been increasing since May 2024 and turned positive in March 2025[3] Group 2: Future Projections - Historical data suggests that the midstream demand-investment growth rate difference is likely to remain positive, indicating potential price stabilization in the next two years[2] - The midstream PPI (Producer Price Index) is expected to stop declining and start rising, with a notable month-on-month increase of 0.04% in November, the first positive change since June 2024[4] - If the midstream PPI stabilizes, the year-on-year PPI is likely to continue rising, positively impacting midstream ROE (Return on Equity)[4] Group 3: Economic Data Overview - November's industrial value-added growth rate was 4.8%, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.44%[20] - Retail sales growth in November was 1.3%, down from 2.9% in October, indicating weak consumer demand[22] - Real estate sales area decreased by 17.3% year-on-year in November, showing ongoing challenges in the property market[27]