1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical tensions, especially the escalation of the US - Iran conflict, have led to increased inflation concerns. Rising oil prices mainly affect PPI, with a relatively limited impact on CPI, and the long - term impact on the bond market is controllable, but short - term inflation expectations may cause fluctuations [1][25][33]. - The Two Sessions set a clear macroeconomic tone, including promoting high - quality development in the 14th Five - Year Plan, implementing proactive fiscal policies, maintaining moderately loose monetary policies, and strengthening financial supervision [34][38][39][42]. - In the bond market strategy, the short - end has limited downward space, while the long - end suggests holding existing assets and preferring elastic varieties for new funds [2][3][50][61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Geopolitical Driven Inflation Concerns 3.1.1 US - Iran Tensions and Market Volatility - The escalation of the US - Iran conflict has increased risk - aversion sentiment, causing significant fluctuations in the equity and commodity markets. Oil prices have soared, with Brent and WTI crude futures exceeding $90 per barrel. The CSI 300 has fallen 1.1%, and energy and defensive sectors have performed relatively well [11][13]. 3.1.2 Impact of Oil Prices on Inflation and the Bond Market - Oil prices mainly affect PPI, with a 10% adjustment in oil prices potentially driving a 0.35 - percentage - point change in PPI, and a relatively small impact on CPI (usually within 0.1 percentage points). If oil prices remain high, PPI may turn positive in April [15][16][22]. - In the long run, the impact of rising oil prices on the bond market is controllable, but short - term inflation expectations may cause fluctuations, especially when PPI breaks through critical points [25][29]. 3.2 Two Sessions Tracking 3.2.1 Macroeconomic Tone - The 14th Five - Year Plan focuses on high - quality development. The expected GDP growth rate of 4.5% - 5% is achievable. In consumption, there are measures for commodity and service consumption, as well as targeted policies for the sinking market. Investment will increase government investment and promote the construction of "six networks" and key areas. A national - level merger fund will be established to develop six new pillar industries and six future industries [34][35][37]. 3.2.2 Fiscal Policy - The proactive fiscal policy is reflected in both the scale of funds and policy synergy. In 2026, fiscal spending, new government bonds, and central - to - local transfer payments have reached new highs. A 100 - billion - yuan package of policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal - financial cooperation has been introduced [38]. 3.2.3 Monetary Policy - The moderately loose monetary policy will continue, with comprehensive use of short -, medium -, and long - term policy tools. The central bank will strengthen the implementation and supervision of interest rate policies, and the exchange rate is at a medium - level range. It is also studying a liquidity support mechanism for non - bank institutions in specific situations [39][40]. 3.2.4 Financial Supervision - Two measures will be introduced soon: deepening the reform of the Growth Enterprise Market and optimizing the refinancing mechanism. The goal is to guide industry institutions to focus on their main businesses and develop in a standardized way [42]. 3.3 Bond Market Strategy 3.3.1 Short - end Bonds - After the Spring Festival, the capital situation has remained loose, but the central bank's liquidity injection has been relatively restrained. The short - end bond market has limited downward space, with the 1 - year national and joint - stock bank certificates of deposit potentially reaching a "resistance level" at 1.55%. The credit spread of bonds with a maturity of less than 5 years has been compressed to a historical low [2][50][52]. 3.3.2 Long - end Bonds - The 10 - year Treasury bond is likely to remain within the range of 30 - 50bp above the OMO rate. The US - Iran situation may affect market risk appetite, and inflation expectations may rise due to rising oil prices. For coupon collection, convex - type bonds can be considered, such as 5 - year China Development Bank bonds for the medium - short term, 8 - year Export - Import Bank of China bonds for the long term, and 15 - 20 - year local government bonds for insurance funds. Existing assets can be held, and new funds can be invested in more liquid and elastic varieties [54][58][61]. 3.4 Interest - rate Bond Market Review 3.4.1 Capital Market - The central bank has significantly net -回笼 funds through OMO, but the capital market has remained balanced and loose [62][64][65]. 3.4.2 Primary Market Issuance - The net financing of Treasury bonds has decreased, while the net financing of policy - financial bonds, local government bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit has increased [75][77][78]. 3.4.3 Benchmark Changes - The term spreads of Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds have both widened, with short - end bonds performing better than long - end bonds [68][79][80].

证 券 研 究 报 告 交通运输行业周报（20260302-20260308） 聚焦：中东冲突大幅推涨油轮运价，继续看好油运 推荐（维持） 中长期景气逻辑 ❑ 一、聚焦：中东冲突大幅推涨油轮运价，继续看好油运中期景气 1、霍尔木兹海峡通行量显著：由于伊朗威胁持续及多家保险公司取消承保， 3 月 2 日-5 日霍尔木兹海峡船舶通行量平均下降超过 90%。截至 3 月 6 日， 约 3%的船舶停留在波斯湾内，其中 VLCC 有 74 艘，占全球总运力约 8%。 2、船舶和海事基础设施受到袭击：克拉克森统计已确认至少有 12 艘船舶遇 袭；阿联酋富查伊拉港和阿曼杜库姆港遭到袭击，导致港口运营出现临时或局 部中断；由于储存能力有限，伊拉克两座陆上油田已暂停生产；作为预防措施， 连接伊拉克库尔德斯坦与土耳其杰伊汉的输油管道已暂停运行。 3、油价、油轮运费大幅上行：截至 3 月 6 日，布伦特原油价格收于 93 美元/ 桶，较 2 月底上涨 12%。克拉克森 VLCC-TCE 收于 38 万美元/天，周环比 +91.2%，创历史以来最高水平；其中，中东-中国航线报于 47 万美元/天，周 环比+111%，但中东地区实际成 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the insurance sector, indicating that the sector is expected to show a price increase exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [2][19]. Core Insights - The insurance sector is currently undergoing adjustments, which may reveal value in terms of cost-effectiveness for investors. The report suggests that after recent adjustments, the sector's valuation is relatively low, making it an attractive option for investment [4][9]. - The report highlights that in February 2026, the new insurance policies in the bancassurance market reached 69 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, although it experienced a month-on-month decline of 67.6% [4]. - The report emphasizes the government's recognition of the insurance industry's role in supporting national objectives and enhancing public welfare, as evidenced by multiple mentions in the government work report [4]. Company-Specific Summaries - **China Pacific Insurance (601601.SH)**: The stock price is 39.24 yuan, with projected EPS of 5.68 yuan for 2025E, and a PE ratio of 6.91. The company is rated as "Recommended" [5]. - **China Life Insurance (601628.SH)**: The stock price is 42.69 yuan, with projected EPS of 6.34 yuan for 2025E, and a PE ratio of 6.73. The company is rated as "Recommended" [5]. - **China Property & Casualty Insurance (02328.HK)**: The stock price is 15.78 yuan, with projected EPS of 2.07 yuan for 2025E, and a PE ratio of 6.72. The company is rated as "Recommended" [5]. - **Ping An Insurance (601318.SH)**: The stock price is 62.67 yuan, with projected EPS of 8.02 yuan for 2025E, and a PE ratio of 7.82. The company is rated as "Strongly Recommended" [5]. Market Performance - The insurance index decreased by 1.48%, underperforming the broader market by 0.41 percentage points. Individual stock performances varied, with notable declines in several companies, including China Life and China Pacific [9].

证 券 研 究 报 告 交通运输行业周报（20260302-20260308） 聚焦：中东冲突大幅推涨油轮运价，继续看好油运 推荐（维持） 中长期景气逻辑 ❑ 一、聚焦：中东冲突大幅推涨油轮运价，继续看好油运中期景气 1、霍尔木兹海峡通行量显著：由于伊朗威胁持续及多家保险公司取消承保， 3 月 2 日-5 日霍尔木兹海峡船舶通行量平均下降超过 90%。截至 3 月 6 日， 约 3%的船舶停留在波斯湾内，其中 VLCC 有 74 艘，占全球总运力约 8%。 4、投资建议：霍尔木兹是波斯湾原油出口的主要通道，考虑管道潜在的出口 替代能力（约 500 万桶/天），仍有约 1000 万桶/天的原油必须依赖海峡运输， 若其长期中断会对能源及航运市场造成重大冲击。短期来看，一方面地缘风险 溢价推升航运价格表现，而若保险+护航等方案下，霍尔木兹海峡通行逐渐恢 复，或催生补库行情；中期看，长锦商船扫货 VLCC 是市场中不可忽视的供 给和格局逻辑；长期看，合规需求持续改善，船东集中度提升增强议价能力， 运价中枢有望维持高位，继续推荐招商轮船、中远海能 H/A。 ❑ 四、风险提示：人民币大幅贬值，经济出现下滑，行业竞争加剧等 ...

- The report discusses multiple quantitative timing models for A-shares, including the "Volume Model" (neutral), "Feature Institutional Model" (bearish), "Feature Volume Model" (bearish), "Smart Algorithm Model for CSI 300" (neutral), and "Smart Algorithm Model for CSI 500" (neutral) [1][10][67] - For mid-term A-share models, the "Limit Up and Down Model" is neutral, while the "Up and Down Return Difference Model" is bullish for most broad-based indices. The "Calendar Effect Model" remains neutral [1][11][68] - The long-term A-share model, "Momentum Model," is neutral [1][12][69] - Comprehensive A-share models, such as "Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model" and "Comprehensive Guozheng 2000 Model," are bearish [1][13][70] - For Hong Kong stocks, the mid-term "Turnover to Volatility Model" is bearish, while the "Up and Down Return Difference Model" and its similar variant are neutral [1][14][71] - The report emphasizes that timing strategies are built on multi-cycle and multi-strategy systems, including short-term, mid-term, and long-term models. These models incorporate factors like price-volume, acceleration, trend, momentum, and limit up/down to achieve a balance between defensive and aggressive strategies [8] - The backtesting results for the "Double Bottom Pattern" show a weekly decline of -2.25%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by -1.32%. Since December 31, 2020, the cumulative return of this pattern is 24.42%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.67% [41][50] - The "Cup and Handle Pattern" experienced a weekly decline of -2.18%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by -1.25%. Since December 31, 2020, the cumulative return of this pattern is 21.94%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.19% [41][45]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 关注 3 月保险资金进场带来的长信用交易兑 现机会 ——信用周报20260308 1、自 2 月以来，华创信用策略方面多次提示长久期信用债票息价值，性价比 较高，可适当参与，快进快出，并提示在 2025 年长信用品种信用利差最低点 上方 10BP 左右及时止盈。对比止盈基准并考虑增值税新规对国开债曲线的影 响，目前 7y、10yAA+中票利差较止盈基准剩余 1-4BP，7y、9yAAA 中票利差 较止盈基准剩余 2-3BP，10yAAA 中票利差已压缩至 2025 年最低点以下。长 信用行情逐步兑现，交易型资金后续追涨空间较有限，可择机兑现收益。 2、展望后市，3 月是保险开门红配债大月，保险积极进场，长信用利差可能会 进一步压缩。前期已进场并赚取了资本利得的交易型资金，可关注 3 月保险进 场带来的止盈机会；配置型资金可继续持有长信用品种，获得票息收益。 ❖ 保险机构行为对债市的影响？ 1、配债节奏上，关注保险配债季节性规律。一般而言一季度开门红保费收入 占全年保费收入四成左右，这部分资金通常在 3 月两会召开政策明朗、利空出 尽之后进入配债旺季。今年截至目前保险配债强 ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 华创交运|低空经济周报（第 66 期） 连续三年写入政府工作报告，入选十五五重 推荐（维持） 大项目工程，低空经济步入建设提速年 交通运输 2026 年 3 月 8 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 证券分析师：卢浩敏 邮箱：luhaomin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524090001 证券分析师：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080004 联系人：刘邢雨 邮箱：liuxingyu@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 122 | 0.02 | | 总市值(亿元) | 35,334.42 | 2.72 | | 流通市值(亿元) ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the low-altitude economy, which has been included in government work reports for three consecutive years and is recognized as a key emerging industry [3][5][6]. Core Insights - The low-altitude economy has been elevated to a strategic emerging industry, with significant government backing as seen in the 2024 and 2025 government work reports, emphasizing the need for robust development and application of new technologies [5][6]. - The report anticipates that 2026 will be a year of accelerated construction in the low-altitude economy, focusing on four application scenarios, two new infrastructure projects, and five industry chain segments to identify investment opportunities [7][21]. - The report highlights key companies with clear competitive advantages, including market leaders such as WanFeng AoWei, ZongShen Power, and YiHang Intelligent, as well as smaller market cap stocks like FuLin YunYe and ZongHeng Co [7][22]. Industry Overview - The low-altitude economy is part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" with 109 major projects, including low-altitude equipment and infrastructure development [4][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating new production capabilities and military applications, particularly in the context of drone technology and counter-drone systems, which are increasingly relevant due to global security concerns [9][10][11]. Market Performance - The Huachuang Transportation Low-altitude 60 Index experienced a weekly decline of 0.9% but has risen 4.8% year-to-date, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 0.7% over the same period [13][15]. - Notable stock performances include ZongShen Power with a weekly increase of 20% and a year-to-date increase of 52% for FuLin YunYe, indicating strong market interest in these companies [16][17]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on various segments of the low-altitude economy, including manufacturing, supply chain, digitalization, and operational aspects, to explore commercial opportunities [21][22]. - Key recommended companies include WanFeng AoWei for general aviation and eVTOL, ZongShen Power for aviation engines, and YiHang Intelligent for eVTOL solutions, among others [22][23][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 37.8 yuan, indicating an expectation of over 20% outperformance against the benchmark index in the next six months [2][16]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2025 reached 17.099 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.86%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.972 billion yuan, up 36.75% year-on-year [2]. - The increase in gold prices significantly contributed to the company's performance, with gold and silver prices rising by 43% and 35% respectively in 2025 [8]. - The company plans to produce 7-8 tons of gold in 2026, maintaining production levels for other metals [8]. - The company has made significant investments in resource exploration, with a total of 112 million yuan spent, resulting in a substantial increase in resource reserves [8]. - The company is also advancing its overseas projects, including the construction of the Twin Hills gold mine in Namibia, expected to commence production in the first half of 2027 [8]. Financial Summary - In 2025, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 31.83%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - The projected net profits for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 4.776 billion yuan, 7.161 billion yuan, and 7.655 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 60.7%, 49.9%, and 6.9% [9]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 1.07 yuan, with estimates of 1.72 yuan, 2.58 yuan, and 2.76 yuan for the following years [9].

Employment Data Summary - In February, the U.S. non-farm employment decreased by 92,000, significantly below the expected increase of 55,000[2] - Private non-farm employment also fell by 86,000, against an expectation of 60,000[2] - The unemployment rate slightly rose to 4.4%, compared to the expected 4.3%[2] - Labor force participation rate dropped from 62.5% to 62.0%, influenced by population estimate adjustments[2] Wage and Hourly Data - Hourly wage growth was 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding the expected 0.3%[2] - Year-on-year wage growth stood at 3.8%, slightly above the expected 3.7%[2] - Average weekly hours remained stable at 34.3 hours[2] Market Reactions and Expectations - Market expectations for interest rate cuts increased, with the anticipated number of cuts rising from 1.58 to 1.76 for the year[3] - The probability of a rate cut in July increased from 64% to 87%[3] - Following the non-farm report, U.S. stock indices fell, with the Dow Jones down 0.95% and the Nasdaq down 1.59%[3] Contributing Factors to Employment Decline - A significant strike at Kaiser Permanente affected approximately 31,000 jobs[3] - Severe weather in early February likely impacted employment in sensitive sectors like construction and leisure, estimated to have reduced employment by about 68,000[3] - Adjustments in the business birth and death model contributed to employment volatility, with a net contribution of 90,000 jobs, below the historical average[3] Inflation and Economic Outlook - Concerns about "stagflation" are rising, primarily due to oil price increases and disappointing employment data[4] - The impact of rising oil prices on CPI is expected to be temporary, lacking significant second-round effects[4] - The Federal Reserve may still pursue rate cuts if long-term inflation expectations remain stable despite rising oil prices[4]