Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting the initiation of a spring rally with significant price increases in metals [2]. Core Views - The spring rally is believed to have started, with aluminum prices showing strong elasticity. As of January 9, the SHFE aluminum closing price was 24,385 CNY/ton, a 6.4% increase from December 31, 2025. The report anticipates that aluminum prices may rise further due to rigid supply constraints and increasing demand in new sectors [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for the electrolytic aluminum sector, predicting average profits to exceed 7,500 CNY/ton, supported by improved cash flow and stable profitability among companies [4]. - A strike at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile could impact copper production, potentially exacerbating supply tightness in 2026 [5]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - **Aluminum Market**: The report notes a significant increase in aluminum prices and a rise in profits, driven by supply constraints and new demand areas. The global aluminum inventory remains low, providing strong support for prices [3]. - **Copper Market**: The report highlights a rise in copper inventories and recommends several companies in the copper sector, including Zijin Mining and Western Mining [6]. New Energy Metals and Minor Metals - **Cobalt Market**: The report indicates that cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo are delayed, leading to a potential price increase. The average price of electrolytic cobalt rose to 460,000 CNY/ton, a 1.1% increase from December 31, 2025 [7][12]. - **Company Performance**: Huayou Cobalt's 2025 earnings forecast exceeds market expectations, with a projected net profit increase of 40.8% to 55.2% year-on-year [14]. Industry Data - **Market Performance**: The non-ferrous metals sector has shown strong absolute and relative performance over the past year, with a 110.2% increase over 12 months [9]. - **Stock Market Data**: The total market capitalization of the sector is approximately 457.86 billion CNY, with 126 listed companies [8].

- The report introduces a "Total Heat Index" indicator, defined as the sum of browsing, self-selection, and click counts for individual stocks, normalized by their market share on the same day, and multiplied by 10,000. The indicator range is [0,10000][7] - A rotation strategy is constructed based on the weekly heat index change rate (MA2). At the end of each week, the strategy buys the broad-based index with the highest MA2 change rate. If the "Others" group has the highest change rate, the strategy remains in cash. The annualized return since 2017 is 8.74%, with a maximum drawdown of 23.5%. In 2026, the strategy achieved a return of 7.9%[13][16] - A concept-based strategy is developed by selecting the top 5 concepts with the highest weekly heat index change rate. Stocks within these concepts are filtered by excluding the bottom 20% in terms of market capitalization. Two portfolios are constructed: the "TOP" portfolio holds the top 10 stocks with the highest heat index within each concept, while the "BOTTOM" portfolio holds the bottom 10 stocks. The "BOTTOM" portfolio historically achieved an annualized return of 15.71% with a maximum drawdown of 28.89%. In 2026, the "BOTTOM" portfolio returned 6.4%[32][34]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Volume Model - **Construction Idea**: The model uses trading volume data to predict market trends[1][13] - **Construction Process**: The model analyzes the trading volume of various broad-based indices to generate buy or sell signals[1][13] - **Evaluation**: The model is effective in capturing short-term market movements[1][13] 2. Model Name: Feature Dragon Tiger List Institutional Model - **Construction Idea**: This model uses institutional trading data from the Dragon Tiger List to predict market trends[1][13] - **Construction Process**: The model analyzes the trading activities of institutions listed on the Dragon Tiger List to generate buy or sell signals[1][13] - **Evaluation**: The model is useful for understanding institutional trading behavior and its impact on the market[1][13] 3. Model Name: Feature Volume Model - **Construction Idea**: This model uses specific volume characteristics to predict market trends[1][13] - **Construction Process**: The model analyzes specific volume patterns to generate buy or sell signals[1][13] - **Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying significant volume changes that precede market movements[1][13] 4. Model Name: Intelligent Algorithm CSI 300 Model - **Construction Idea**: This model uses intelligent algorithms to predict the CSI 300 index trends[1][13] - **Construction Process**: The model employs machine learning algorithms to analyze historical data and generate buy or sell signals for the CSI 300 index[1][13] - **Evaluation**: The model leverages advanced algorithms to improve prediction accuracy[1][13] 5. Model Name: Intelligent Algorithm CSI 500 Model - **Construction Idea**: This model uses intelligent algorithms to predict the CSI 500 index trends[1][13] - **Construction Process**: The model employs machine learning algorithms to analyze historical data and generate buy or sell signals for the CSI 500 index[1][13] - **Evaluation**: The model leverages advanced algorithms to improve prediction accuracy[1][13] 6. Model Name: Limit Up and Down Model - **Construction Idea**: This model uses the occurrence of limit up and down events to predict market trends[1][13] - **Construction Process**: The model analyzes the frequency and context of limit up and down events to generate buy or sell signals[1][13] - **Evaluation**: The model is effective in capturing extreme market movements[1][13] 7. Model Name: Up and Down Return Difference Model - **Construction Idea**: This model uses the difference between upward and downward returns to predict market trends[1][13] - **Construction Process**: The model calculates the difference between upward and downward returns to generate buy or sell signals[1][13] - **Evaluation**: The model provides insights into market momentum and potential reversals[1][13] 8. Model Name: Calendar Effect Model - **Construction Idea**: This model uses calendar-based patterns to predict market trends[1][13] - **Construction Process**: The model analyzes historical data to identify recurring calendar-based patterns and generate buy or sell signals[1][13] - **Evaluation**: The model is useful for identifying seasonal trends in the market[1][13] 9. Model Name: Long-term Momentum Model - **Construction Idea**: This model uses long-term momentum to predict market trends[1][14] - **Construction Process**: The model analyzes long-term price momentum to generate buy or sell signals[1][14] - **Evaluation**: The model is effective in capturing long-term market trends[1][14] 10. Model Name: A-Share Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model - **Construction Idea**: This model combines multiple factors to predict market trends[1][15] - **Construction Process**: The model integrates various indicators and models to generate a comprehensive buy or sell signal[1][15] - **Evaluation**: The model provides a holistic view of the market by combining multiple factors[1][15] 11. Model Name: A-Share Comprehensive Guozheng 2000 Model - **Construction Idea**: This model combines multiple factors to predict the Guozheng 2000 index trends[1][15] - **Construction Process**: The model integrates various indicators and models to generate a comprehensive buy or sell signal for the Guozheng 2000 index[1][15] - **Evaluation**: The model provides a holistic view of the market by combining multiple factors[1][15] 12. Model Name: Turnover Rate Inverse Volatility Model - **Construction Idea**: This model uses the inverse relationship between turnover rate and volatility to predict market trends[1][16] - **Construction Process**: The model analyzes the turnover rate and its inverse relationship with volatility to generate buy or sell signals[1][16] - **Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying periods of high market uncertainty[1][16] Model Backtesting Results 1. Volume Model - **Indicator Value**: All broad-based indices are bullish[1][13] 2. Feature Dragon Tiger List Institutional Model - **Indicator Value**: Bullish[1][13] 3. Feature Volume Model - **Indicator Value**: Bullish[1][13] 4. Intelligent Algorithm CSI 300 Model - **Indicator Value**: Bullish[1][13] 5. Intelligent Algorithm CSI 500 Model - **Indicator Value**: Bullish[1][13] 6. Limit Up and Down Model - **Indicator Value**: Bullish[1][13] 7. Up and Down Return Difference Model - **Indicator Value**: All broad-based indices are bullish[1][13] 8. Calendar Effect Model - **Indicator Value**: Neutral[1][13] 9. Long-term Momentum Model - **Indicator Value**: Some broad-based indices are bullish[1][14] 10. A-Share Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model - **Indicator Value**: Bullish[1][15] 11. A-Share Comprehensive Guozheng 2000 Model - **Indicator Value**: Bullish[1][15] 12. Turnover Rate Inverse Volatility Model - **Indicator Value**: Bearish[1][16]

Group 1: Inflation Overview - In December 2025, CPI increased year-on-year from 0.7% to 0.8%, while core CPI remained stable at 1.2%[2] - PPI narrowed its year-on-year decline from -2.2% to -1.9%[2] - The GDP deflator index for Q4 2025 is expected to be around -0.4%, with earlier quarters at -0.8%, -1.2%, and -1%[2] Group 2: CPI Analysis - The cumulative CPI increase for 2025 is 0.8%, a significant recovery compared to the average -0.1% in 2023-24[5] - Food prices rose by 1.1% in 2025, driven by increases in fruits, vegetables, and beef[5] - Gold jewelry prices surged by 68.5%, contributing to the overall CPI improvement[5] Group 3: PPI Trends - In the first half of 2025, PPI experienced a monthly average decline of -0.3%, compared to -0.2% in 2023 and 2024[6] - The second half of 2025 saw PPI stabilize with a monthly average of 0%, indicating a recovery in various industry chains[6] - Factors influencing PPI include global recession fears due to U.S. tariff policies and ongoing adjustments in the domestic real estate market[6] Group 4: 2026 Outlook - CPI is projected to rise by approximately 0.8% in 2026, with a technical adjustment of 0.1 percentage points due to base effects[10] - PPI is expected to decline by about -1%, with an upward adjustment of 0.4 percentage points due to price increases in the non-ferrous sector[10] - Potential upward risks for CPI include increased consumer subsidies and improved service supply in the economy[10]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoints - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw mixed performance across different indices, with the Growth Index rising by 5.03% and the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 2.22% [1] - Most sectors within the CITIC first-level industries showed positive returns, particularly the Oil & Petrochemical sector, which rose by 16.97%, and the Defense & Military sector, which increased by 16.74% [1][10] - Timing models in the fourth quarter demonstrated the ability to achieve absolute positive returns, with several models performing notably well [1] Sector Performance - The Oil & Petrochemical sector had a closing price of 3,424.25 with a quarterly increase of 16.97% [11] - The Defense & Military sector closed at 11,864.34, reflecting a quarterly rise of 16.74% [11] - Other sectors with significant gains included Nonferrous Metals (15.63%), Communications (14.72%), and Consumer Services (8.45%) [11][10] Fund Performance - Balanced mixed funds outperformed others with an average return of 1.22%, while stock funds showed a decline of 1.71% [14] - A total of 715 new public funds were established in Q4 2025, raising a total of 2,784.53 billion, with mixed funds raising 997.56 billion [14] Investment Themes - The report emphasizes the importance of utilizing historical timing, sector rotation, and stock selection models to identify future investment opportunities [5][6] - The focus for Q1 2026 is on sectors such as Construction Materials, Automotive, and Electronics [3] Timing Strategies - The report outlines various timing models, including short-term models like the Price-Volume Resonance Model and the Low-Volatility Blade Model, which aim to capture market trends and rebounds [15][16] - The Long-term Momentum Swing Model has shown a 7.01% annualized return since June 2008, indicating its effectiveness in long-term market analysis [43][44] Comprehensive Models - The Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model integrates multiple timing strategies and has achieved an annualized return of 29.55% since February 2015 [46] - The Smart Algorithm Timing Model for the CSI 300 Index has demonstrated a remarkable annualized return of 35.42% since January 2014, showcasing its superior performance compared to the index itself [49][50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second week of January, food price declines narrowed, while industrial product spot and futures prices rose. After the holiday, the resumption of work was relatively fast, and production generally improved compared to pre - holiday levels [37]. - For the bond market, January is an important window for the economy to achieve a "good start". Benefiting from the early release of "two new" policies and the expansion of the early batch of "two major" policies, the post - holiday resumption of work was fast, and production improved. The manufacturing PMI in December exceeded expectations in terms of production and orders. With more working days in January this year compared to last year and the impact of pre - Spring Festival stockpiling and rush work, the prosperity in production and exports is expected to continue, and the PMI at the end of the month may still be strong. Macro front - loaded efforts and the promotion of the "anti - involution" concept may boost short - term re - inflation trading expectations. The suppression of the bond market sentiment by the equity and commodity markets may still occur repeatedly, so high - frequency verification is needed, especially the slope and persistence of price index recovery [37]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Inflation - related: Food Price Declines Narrowed - Pork price increases expanded, and the food price index showed a mild decline. From January 5th to January 9th, the average wholesale price of pork in the country increased by 1.45% week - on - week, and the decline of vegetable prices narrowed to - 0.9%. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products decreased by 0.1% and 0.2% respectively week - on - week, with the declines narrowing [10]. 3.2 Import and Export - related: Container Shipping Demand was Stable, and Freight Rate Indices were Divergent - Container shipping demand was basically stable, and route freight rates were divergent. This week, the CCFI index increased by 4.2% week - on - week, while the SCFI decreased by 0.5% week - on - week. The export container shipping market was generally stable. The demand and freight rates of European and North American routes were stable and rising, while the freight rates of routes such as Australia - New Zealand and South America declined significantly, dragging down the SCFI [15]. - In terms of port throughput, from December 29th to January 4th, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports increased by 6.3% and decreased by 0.7% respectively compared to the pre - holiday week. The post - holiday resumption of work was fast, and there was a month - on - month improvement [15]. - The BDI and CDFI indices continued to weaken. Affected by the Christmas and New Year holidays, the international dry bulk shipping market entered the traditional off - season, with limited market trading activity. The BDI and CDFI decreased by 5.8% and 3.2% respectively, with the declines expanding [15]. 3.3 Industry - related: Industrial Production Rhythm Accelerated after the Festival - There was an expectation of tightened coal supply, and coal prices rose. This week, the price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 1.8% week - on - week, compared with a 1.4% decline in the previous week. Before the New Year's Day, the heating load did not meet expectations, the demand for household electricity was weak, and the daily consumption of power plants decreased slightly. After the festival, the temperature dropped in the central and eastern regions, and the daily consumption of power plants increased. However, coal inventories were still relatively high compared to the same period. End - users mainly consumed inventories and ensured long - term contract shipments, with limited incremental demand. Before the Spring Festival, some coal mines completed their annual production and sales tasks and successively stopped production for maintenance, resulting in a phased tightening of pit - mouth supply and an obvious reduction in port inventories, which boosted coal prices [19][20]. - The decline of rebar prices expanded. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) decreased by 0.36% week - on - week, compared with a 0.02% decline in the previous week. Before the festival, the profitability of steel mills stabilized at a low level, and some blast furnaces resumed production after maintenance. After the holiday, more production resumed, the rebar output continued to rise, and the inventories in factories and society ended the destocking trend and turned to inventory accumulation [20]. - The asphalt start - up rate was at a low level compared to the same period at the beginning of the year. This week, the start - up rate of asphalt plants decreased by 6.8 percentage points to 25.4% week - on - week, and was 1.6 percentage points lower year - on - year, still at a seasonal low. The road construction demand in the north basically stagnated, while the demand in South China and Southwest China was okay, but mainly focused on digesting existing inventories, with limited boost to production increments [20]. - Copper prices continued to rise. This week, the average prices of Yangtze River non - ferrous copper and LME copper increased by 2.8% and 4.8% respectively week - on - week, maintaining a strong trend. On the one hand, there was still an expectation of tightened supply. On the other hand, the good performance of China's manufacturing PMI and the early implementation of macro - policies such as the "two new" policies boosted confidence and supported copper prices [24]. - Glass futures turned from decline to rise, and the production and sales improved significantly after the festival. The futures market was mainly driven by the general rise of commodities. In the spot market, the trading was good this week, and the price trend increased. Before the New Year's Day holiday, the trading performance was weak. After the festival, boosted by macro - policies and the re - inflation trading in the futures market, the production and sales performance in many places improved significantly, and the industry's inventory pressure was relieved [24]. 3.4 Investment - related: At the Beginning of the Month, it was the Off - season, and Real Estate Sales Declined Slightly - Cement prices continued to decline. This week, the weekly average of the cement price index decreased by 0.62% week - on - week, and the decline continued to expand. The performance varied by region. In East China, the demand declined slightly due to the holiday and cooling, while in Central and South China and Northwest China, the construction demand of construction sites was released, and the increase in the concrete shipping volume boosted the cement price to maintain a slight increase [26]. - New home sales decreased month - on - month. From January 2nd to January 8th, the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities was 1.032 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 67% compared with the previous week (December 26th - January 1st). The decline slope was similar to that in the same period in 2025, and the year - on - year decrease for the single week was 3%. The transactions during the New Year's Day holiday maintained the characteristics of the traditional off - season [30]. - Second - hand home sales continued to decline. From last Friday to this Thursday, the transaction area of second - hand homes decreased by 7.7% month - on - month, and it decreased by 7.3% month - on - month last week (December 26th - January 1st), indicating a continuous cooling of transactions [30]. 3.5 Consumption: Passenger Car Retail Sales in December Decreased by 13% Year - on - year - In December, passenger car retail sales decreased by 13% year - on - year and increased by 3% month - on - month. According to the Passenger Car Association, the total retail sales of the passenger car market in December were 2.296 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 13% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. Among them, the retail sales in the week from December 29th to 31st were 123,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 2%, highlighting the year - end sprint effect [31]. - The impact of geopolitics escalated, and crude oil prices rose more significantly. As of January 9th, compared with January 2nd, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased by 4.2% and 3.1% respectively week - on - week, continuing to strengthen. The increasing uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation and the US military strike on Venezuela boosted oil prices [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the medical device sector, particularly highlighting opportunities in innovative drugs and medical devices [49]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a transition in the innovative drug sector from quantity to quality, suggesting a focus on differentiated products and internationalization by 2025 [11]. - In the medical device sector, there is a notable recovery in bidding volumes for imaging equipment, with a focus on companies like Mindray and United Imaging [11]. - The report identifies a significant growth potential in the orthopedic market due to aging demographics and increasing surgical penetration rates in China [43]. - The life sciences service sector is experiencing a demand recovery, driven by both domestic and international market needs, with a focus on the importance of mergers and acquisitions for growth [50]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The medical index rose by 7.70%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.91 percentage points, ranking 5th among 30 sectors [7]. - The top-performing stocks included Baitai, Innovation Medical, and Sanbo Neuroscience, while the worst performers were Baihua Pharmaceutical and Jinhao Medical [7]. Overall Views and Investment Themes - Innovative drugs are expected to see a shift towards quality, with a focus on companies like BeiGene and Innovent [11]. - Medical devices are benefiting from a recovery in bidding for imaging equipment and a push for domestic substitutes in the market [11]. - The innovative chain (CXO + life sciences services) is anticipated to see a rebound in investment, with a focus on high-growth potential companies [11]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in the blood products sector, with an emphasis on companies like TianTan Biological and Boya Biological [11]. Specific Company Insights - Neuralink is positioned as a leader in the invasive brain-computer interface sector, with significant advancements in its technology and clinical trials [21]. - Synchron is noted for its endovascular brain-computer interface, which offers a safer solution for severely paralyzed patients [25]. - Paradromics focuses on high-bandwidth brain-computer interfaces, aiming to decode complex human intentions [32]. - CorTec is pioneering closed-loop brain-computer interfaces, providing real-time interaction between the brain and external devices [36]. - Precision Neuroscience is innovating minimally invasive implantation techniques for brain-computer interfaces [39]. - Blackrock Neurotech is recognized for its comprehensive solutions in the brain-computer interface field, aiding patients with sensory restoration and control [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, with core consumer goods, services, and fresh produce prices improving. PPI's year - on - year decline narrowed to - 1.9%, and prices gradually recovered from upstream to mid - downstream after the "anti - involution" policy [2][3]. - In December 2025, due to the decline in vegetable price growth and the seasonal recovery of consumer goods, CPI's year - on - year increase rebounded to 0.8% under the low - base effect. PPI's month - on - month increase rebounded to 0.2% due to the heating season and the impact of imported non - ferrous metals [29][45]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 2025 Inflation Review CPI - In 2025, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year. The factors contributing to the CPI increase from high to low were core consumer goods (0.63 pct), fresh produce (0.4 pct), services (0.25 pct), while livestock and meat (- 0.19 pct) and energy (- 0.3 pct) dragged it down [2][9]. - Core consumer goods: Gold prices contributed half of the increase, and prices of household appliances and daily necessities improved under consumption - promoting policies. Services: Service consumption scenarios mainly related to travel still supported prices, with significant price fluctuations between peak and off - peak seasons. Livestock and meat: Pig production capacity reduction was slow under "large - scale" farming, and terminal demand was weak, leading to a slow decline in prices. Fresh produce: Extreme weather affected production and transportation, tightening supply and driving up prices. Energy: Trade frictions led to weak demand and a downward price trend [2][14][15]. PPI - In 2025, the year - on - year decline of PPI narrowed to - 1.9%. After the "anti - involution" policy in July, mid - stream production materials industries showed positive signals, but the durable consumer goods manufacturing industry related to long - term income expectations and closer to terminal demand was still weak [24]. - Industries with continuous price increases included the imported non - ferrous metal industry chain, which had six consecutive months of price increases. Domestically, industries generally saw price recovery from upstream to mid - downstream, such as coal and black mining in the upstream, the paper - making industry, and then lithium - ion battery manufacturing and non - metallic mineral products industries [27]. December CPI Food Items - CPI food prices increased by 0.3% month - on - month, slightly weaker than the seasonal average, driving CPI up by about 0.05 percentage points. Pork prices decreased slightly due to oversupply, and fresh produce prices were weaker than the seasonal level, with fresh fruit prices rising seasonally and fresh vegetable prices rising less than expected [31]. Non - food Items - The non - food item of CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, stronger than the seasonal average, driving CPI up by about 0.12 percentage points. Energy prices decreased slightly, core consumer goods drove CPI up by about 0.16 percentage points (21% contributed by gold price increases), and service prices had limited impact on CPI during the off - travel season [32][37][38]. December PPI Overall - In December, PPI's month - on - month increase rebounded to 0.2% after 19 months, with price increases spreading from the mining industry to raw material and processing industries. Production material prices increased by 0.2%, while downstream living material prices remained flat [45]. By Industry - The number of industries with rising prices among industrial producers remained at 9. Supportive factors included the seasonal increase in demand and prices of coal, gas, and the non - ferrous metal industry chain, as well as the continuous price recovery of the paper - making industry. The drag factor was the imported crude oil industry chain [47][51][59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, "Two Major" projects and "Two New" funds are being gradually allocated, with the scale of the first batch of "Two New" funds narrowing compared to 2025, and the government is promoting economic development through various policies [1][12]. - Fiscal policy maintains an active stance in 2026, ensuring necessary expenditure intensity and increasing the issuance scale of key - term treasury bonds [2]. - Monetary policy aims to achieve an "integrated effect" of incremental and existing policies, with the central bank net - buying treasury bonds and focusing on expanding domestic demand and technological innovation in 2026 [3]. - Financial regulatory authorities have issued formal regulations on fees, relaxed bank EVE indicators, and are exploring innovative financial products [4]. - Real estate policies aim to stabilize the market, with measures such as reducing VAT on second - hand housing transactions and optimizing purchase restrictions in Beijing [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - economic Tone - The dates for the 2026 National Two Sessions have been announced. The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress will be held on March 5, 2026, and the Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will be held on March 4, 2026 [11]. - The first batch of 62.5 billion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds to support consumer goods replacement has been pre - allocated to local areas in 2026, with a smaller scale than in 2025. The policy focuses on optimizing fund allocation and advancing ahead of schedule [12]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated a 295 - billion - yuan pre - approved project list for 2026, including about 220 billion yuan for "Two Major" construction projects and over 75 billion yuan for central budgetary investment [13]. 3.2 Fiscal Policy - In 2026, fiscal policy remains actively oriented, aiming to expand fiscal expenditure, optimize the combination of government bond tools, enhance transfer payment efficiency, and strengthen fiscal - financial coordination [17]. - Seven provinces have repaid 3.342 billion yuan of illegally added government implicit debts, nine regions' state - owned enterprises have returned 1.848 billion yuan of misappropriated agricultural loans, and two provinces and two regions have substantially resolved 170 million yuan of government debts [18]. - In January 2026, the issuance scale of key - term treasury bonds increased compared to the same period last year, with front - loaded policy implementation [19]. 3.3 Monetary Policy - The fourth - quarter monetary policy meeting proposed to achieve an "integrated effect" of incremental and existing policies, and the central bank will continue to deepen interest rate liberalization reform [22]. - The National Foreign Exchange Administration will deepen foreign exchange facilitation reforms and support financial institutions in developing simple and useful exchange - rate hedging products [23]. - In December 2025, the central bank net - bought 50 billion yuan of treasury bonds. Since October 2025, the central bank has restarted bond - buying operations, with purchase amounts of 20 billion yuan, 50 billion yuan, and 50 billion yuan in October, November, and December respectively [3]. - In 2026, monetary policy will focus on expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and other fields, and its growth rate is expected to exceed that of the total social financing scale [25]. 3.4 Financial Supervision - The formal regulations on fund fees have been issued, and regulators are researching and exploring innovative products such as REITs ETFs [28]. - Regulatory authorities have revised the interest - rate shock amplitude parameters for banks [29]. - Regulators have consulted wealth - management companies on obstacles to A - share investment and policy expectations, and many banks have reduced wealth - management management fees to 0% [29]. - The regulatory authority has issued a notice on bond transaction record - keeping to strengthen supervision [30]. 3.5 Real Estate Policy - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market, control increments, reduce inventories, optimize supply, improve housing quality, and reduce VAT on second - hand housing transactions [33]. - Beijing has further optimized purchase - restriction policies, including relaxing requirements for non - Beijing households and supporting multi - child families [34]. - Vanke's proposal to extend the grace period for a 3.7 - billion - yuan bond was passed, but other extension proposals were not approved [34]. - An article in Qiushi magazine holds a positive view on future real estate policy space [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on various fiscal announcements, the report calculates the supply of government bonds and ultra - long bonds in Q1 2026 and interprets the key points of market - concerned supply [8]. - It analyzes the characteristics of government bond issuance in Q1 2026, including the situation of treasury bonds, local bonds, and makes supply forecasts [1][3][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Treasury Bonds: In Q1, the number of issuances changes little, the single - issue scale rises and then falls, and there is room for acceleration in the future 3.1.1 Q1 Treasury Bond Plan: The number of issuances changes little, and 30y bonds use new codes - The number of treasury bond issuances in Q1 2026 is similar to that in the same period of 2025, with the number of coupon - bearing treasury bonds and savings bonds of each term remaining the same as in Q1 2025, and an additional 3M discount treasury bond issued in March 2026. The 50 - year treasury bond is postponed from February to March [9]. - 30y treasury bonds will use new codes. After the announcement, 250002 performed weakly, and 2500006 may continue to be the active bond in the short term. There is a risk of failure in the coupon - bond replacement of 30y ordinary treasury bonds [10]. 3.1.2 Single - issue Scale of Key - term Treasury Bonds: It rises first and then falls, and there may still be room for acceleration in the future - In January 2026, the single - issue scale of 2 - year and 10 - year coupon - bearing treasury bonds increased significantly compared with the same period in 2025, which may be due to high maturity pressure, the need to form physical workloads earlier, and to make way for the issuance of special treasury bonds [15][16]. - The single - issue scale of 1 - year treasury bonds later decreased to 135 billion. If the issuance speed of 135 billion continues, the monthly average may be around 150 billion, which is in line with the neutral issuance speed under a 4% deficit rate. To catch up with the net financing progress in 2025 in Q1, the quarterly average single - issue scale of key - term treasury bonds needs to reach 170 billion, indicating room for acceleration [18][19]. - Treasury bonds can use the remaining quota for issuance expansion before the Two Sessions. The remaining quota at the beginning of 2026 is expected to be around 580 billion, providing room for expansion [23]. 3.1.3 The quota of ultra - long special treasury bonds is pre - allocated but issued later - No special treasury bonds are scheduled for issuance in Q1. Ultra - long special treasury bonds show the characteristic of "quota pre - allocation but issuance postponement". The "Two - New" quota in 2026 is pre - allocated in a reduced scale but earlier, while the "Two - Important" quota is pre - allocated in a larger scale but later [25][29][30]. 3.2 Local Bonds: In Q1, the issuance scale is similar to that in the same period of 2025, the rhythm is earlier, and the terms vary across regions 3.2.1 Q1 Local Bond Plan: The issuance scale is basically the same as that in Q1 2025, and the supply is more concentrated in January - The planned issuance scale of the regions that have released plans is close to that in the same period of 2025. Affected by the Spring Festival shift, the issuance in January 2026 increased significantly compared with the same period in 2025 [31][32]. 3.2.2 Terms: Different regions show differentiation, and term shortening is not yet a general phenomenon - Regions with significantly shortened terms include Guangxi and Zhejiang, which do not arrange the issuance of 30y varieties and increase 10 - 20y varieties [32]. - Regions with little change in terms include Beijing and Shandong. Beijing's new special bonds still cover the full range of 1 - 30y terms, and Shandong's weighted average term is similar to that in Q1 2025 [33]. - Regions with significantly extended terms include Qingdao, which added 30y varieties that were not issued in 2025 [33]. 3.3 Q1 Supply Forecast: It is expected that the net financing of government bonds will be 3.6 trillion, and the issuance of ultra - long bonds will be 1.3 - 1.65 trillion 3.3.1 Government Bond Supply Forecast: The Q1 net financing is 3.6 trillion, including 2.15 trillion local bonds and 1.46 trillion treasury bonds - Local bonds: The net financing in Q1 may be around 2.15 trillion, with January and March being the supply peaks. The net financing in January, February, and March is expected to be 830 billion, 490 billion, and 840 billion respectively [38]. - Treasury bonds: The net financing in Q1 may be around 1.46 trillion. The single - issue scale of key - term treasury bonds is assumed to be 135 billion for the remaining 3 issues in January, rising to 175 billion in February, and around 190 billion in March due to high maturity pressure [39]. 3.3.2 Ultra - long Bond Supply Forecast: The issuance in Q1 is 1.4 - 1.77 trillion, including 11.6 billion treasury bonds and 1.3 - 1.65 trillion local bonds - Ultra - long treasury bonds: The issuance in Q1 may be around 11.6 billion, with 32 billion, 32 billion, and 52 billion issued in January, February, and March respectively [42]. - Ultra - long local bonds: The issuance in Q1 may be 1.3 - 1.65 trillion, with different issuance scales calculated according to different reference term structures [43].