策略研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略月报】 从红利年化 10%看收益来源 ——多行业联合红利资产 11 月报 策略月报 2025 年 12 月 03 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：姚佩 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120004 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 证券分析师：杨晖 证券分析师：马野 邮箱：maye@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040003 相关研究报告 邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522050001 证券分析师：欧阳予 邮箱：ouyangyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520070001 证券分析师：韩星雨 邮箱：hanxingyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525050001 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券 ...

策略研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【华创策略】 牛市下半场，实物再通胀 ——2026 年度投资策略 ❖ 百年变局看中国资产：从"看短做短"到"看长做长" 1）看短做短的背后是长期因子突变下估值体系的紊乱失效，"十四五"期间战 略防御的政策取向，是百年变局下的主动应对，预计"十五五"转向战略相持 进攻、看长做长。2）全球视角看人民币资产优势：①体制：财政足债务稳健、 旧经济出清早，率先双宽稳定扩张；②产业/人才：康波周期下制造产业链齐备 &科创人才红利；③估值：既看 GDP 也看 GNI，人民币国际化，全球 ERP 和 金本位视角看中国资产占优。3）续写增长奇迹的锚点：经济建设为中心，中 长期 GDP 提升路径：居民消费率+中产扩容。结束低价不仅是复苏更是焕发新 生。 ❖ 重塑估值体系：减重增肌的宏观范式、腾笼换鸟的 ROE、居民存款搬家 1）量增质弱的旧范式：地产银行主导的信贷脉冲→减重增肌的新范式：审慎 开支高效运转的高 ROE 权益回报。2）腾笼换鸟的 ROE：新旧动能转换。旧 经济地产链对 A 股 ROE 拖累基本结束，A 股 ROE 告别高杠杆驱动，转向科 技制造高利率、高周转、分红回购。结构转型实现 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the dual-driven business model of the insurance industry, focusing on both assets and liabilities, with a long-term outlook on liability cost optimization driving valuation recovery [8][9] - The insurance sector is currently at a cyclical turning point, with improving operational quality and a focus on cost reduction strategies, particularly in life insurance [9][10] Industry Overview - The insurance sector's total market capitalization is approximately 32,040.19 billion, with a circulating market value of 22,048.26 billion [4] - The report indicates a significant increase in the insurance index, with a 13.8% rise over the past 12 months, although it has underperformed relative to the broader market in the last six months [5] Company Profit Forecasts and Valuations - Key companies such as China Life, China Pacific, and Ping An are projected to have varying EPS growth rates, with China Life expected to see EPS of 6.34 in 2025 and 4.10 in 2026, while Ping An is forecasted to reach 8.02 in 2025 and 8.83 in 2026 [3] - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several companies, including China Life and China Pacific, based on their projected performance and valuation metrics [3] Investment Themes - The report highlights the importance of the "cost reduction trifecta" in life insurance, focusing on product innovation, channel expansion, and dynamic adjustment of preset interest rates [8][9] - In property insurance, the "reporting and operation integration" is expected to optimize costs and enhance profitability, particularly in non-auto insurance segments [9][10] Short-term and Long-term Outlook - Short-term performance is closely tied to equity market trends, with expectations of continued growth in 2025, but potential pressure on performance in 2026 due to investment factors [9][10] - Long-term, the report anticipates that improvements in life insurance costs will drive valuation recovery, with a projected NBV growth rate of over 15% for listed insurance companies in 2026 [9][10] Regulatory Environment - The introduction of a dynamic adjustment mechanism for preset interest rates is expected to alleviate liability costs and enhance the attractiveness of dividend insurance products [24][38] - Recent regulatory guidance aims to stabilize dividend levels in insurance products, preventing excessive competition and ensuring sustainable growth [38][39]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the explosive growth in AI computing demand, driven by advancements in multi-modal applications and the introduction of new hardware products, which is expected to significantly boost the AI hardware industry, including servers, switches, and storage solutions [5][12][13] - The North American tech giants have significantly increased their capital expenditures, with a total of $257.42 billion in CapEx for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 65%, indicating strong confidence in AI investments [13][16][17] - The domestic AI computing chip industry is anticipated to accelerate its development due to the constraints on high-end AI chips from overseas, with companies like Cambricon and Moore Threads leading the charge in chip design [12][21][32] Group 2 - The PCB industry is experiencing high growth in demand due to the continuous iteration and upgrade of AI servers and high-speed switches, pushing the industry towards higher density and performance [33][37] - The report highlights the increasing complexity and requirements for high-layer PCBs, with a growing demand for 14-layer and above PCBs, driven by the needs of AI and high-speed applications [37][38][39] - The development of advanced packaging technologies like CoWoP is expected to enhance system integration efficiency, which is crucial for the performance of AI applications [51][52] Group 3 - The storage sector is entering a new growth cycle, driven by the increasing demand for enterprise-level storage solutions, with expectations of a significant rise in storage prices in 2026 [5][12][24] - The report outlines the shift towards a layered storage structure combining HBM and large cache solutions to meet the bandwidth demands of multi-modal applications, indicating a robust future for the storage industry [12][24][29] - The semiconductor industry is moving towards a more self-sufficient model, with domestic manufacturers ramping up production capabilities in response to external constraints, particularly in critical equipment and materials [7][12][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company with a target price of 78 yuan [2][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.428 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.39% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 12.92% to 1.205 billion yuan [2]. - The overseas business is experiencing rapid growth, with a 21% year-on-year increase in revenue, particularly in the reagent business, which saw a 37% increase [8]. - The company is optimizing its installation structure, with 1,144 automated chemical luminescence instruments installed in the domestic market, 78% of which are large machines, indicating a significant improvement compared to the same period in 2024 [8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company expects total revenue to reach 4.787 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.6% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 1.786 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decline of 2.3% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 2.27 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 26 [4]. Market Dynamics - The domestic market is facing challenges, with a 11% decline in main business revenue to 1.955 billion yuan due to factors like centralized procurement and unbundling of testing packages [8]. - The overseas market is less affected by policy uncertainties, and the gross margin for overseas operations has improved to 69.49%, surpassing domestic levels [8]. - The company is transitioning to higher-margin X-series products, which is expected to support long-term growth [8].

Group 1: New Consumption - The report emphasizes the continuous exploration of new products, channels, and brand changes within the new consumption sector, highlighting the resilience of leading companies despite market concerns about revenue growth and profit realization in 2026 [8][15][9] - Key sectors include eyewear, with a focus on AI and AR technologies, recommending companies like 康耐特光学 for their innovative approaches [18][30] - The潮玩 (trendy toys) sector is noted for its high growth potential, particularly with brands like 泡泡玛特 and their successful IP strategies [34][38] - The personal care and household cleaning segment is undergoing a transformation, driven by the rise of platforms like 抖音, which enhances brand visibility and sales conversion [54][55] Group 2: Export Chain - The report identifies the light industry export chain as a key area, emphasizing the importance of high pricing power, market diversification, and mature overseas production capabilities [10] - Recommendations include关注匠心家居, 共创草坪, and other companies that demonstrate strong performance in international markets [10] Group 3: Cyclical Opportunities - The report suggests a focus on quality leaders in the cyclical sector, particularly in home textiles and furniture, where companies like 水星家纺 and 欧派家居 are highlighted for their strong market positions [11][11] - The report notes the increasing differentiation within the home goods market, recommending companies that offer value and competitive pricing [11]

行业研究 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：许常捷 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030002 证券分析师：杨航 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525090001 证 券 研 究 报 告 房地产行业周报（2025 年第 48 周） 推荐（维持） 新房成交环比增加 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 107 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 12,550.76 | 1.06 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 12,027.70 | 1.26 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -3.0% | 13.6% | -5.3% | | 相对表现 | -1.6% | -5.6% | -22.2% | -24% -9% 6% 20% 24/12 25/02 25/04 25/07 25/09 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 1, the convertible bond market showed a trend of increasing in price with decreasing trading volume, and the valuation increased compared to the previous period. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.10%, while the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, Shanghai 50 Index, and CSI 1000 Index all increased to varying degrees [1]. - The market style favored large - cap growth stocks. Large - cap growth stocks rose by 1.42%, outperforming other styles [1]. - The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 5.3624 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.67% compared to the previous day, while the total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 188.9449 billion yuan, an increase of 18.26% [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 482.09, up 0.10% for the day, down 0.18% for the week, down 0.49% for the month, and up 16.29% since the beginning of 2025. Other convertible bond - related indices also showed different degrees of increase or decrease [7]. - Among the A - share indices, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3914.01, up 0.65% for the day; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13146.72, up 1.25% for the day; the ChiNext Index closed at 3092.50, up 1.31% for the day [7]. Market Capital Performance - The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 5.3624 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.67% compared to the previous day, while the total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 188.9449 billion yuan, an increase of 18.26% [1][8]. - The net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 343 million yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond decreased by 0.46bp to 1.84% [1][11][12]. Convertible Bond Price and Valuation - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds increased to 132.54 yuan, up 0.08% compared to the previous day. The proportion of high - price bonds above 130 yuan increased by 0.51pct to 54.55% [2]. - The fitting conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value increased to 31.50%, up 0.04pct compared to the previous day. The overall weighted par value increased by 0.61% to 100.63 yuan [2][17][22]. Industry Performance - In the A - share market, the top three industries in terms of gains were non - ferrous metals (+2.85%), communication (+2.81%), and electronics (+1.58%); the top three industries in terms of losses were agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-0.43%), environmental protection (-0.23%), and real estate (-0.06%) [3]. - In the convertible bond market, the top three industries in terms of losses were environmental protection (-3.58%), steel (-1.37%), and household appliances (-1.01%); the top three industries in terms of gains were communication (+0.85%), electronics (+0.82%), and coal (+0.66%) [3]. ETF Share Changes - The share of Bosera Convertible Bond ETF was 4.237 billion shares, with a net decrease of 27.9 million shares [37]. - The share of Haifutong Convertible Bond ETF was 802 million shares, with a net increase of 10.1 million shares [40].

Group 1: Liquidity Trends - The supply side of funds shows a slight decrease in newly established equity public funds, while leveraged and ETF funds are experiencing a reversal in their differentiation trend, with net inflows of leveraged funds recovering and significant outflows from stock ETFs[2] - The demand side of funds has slightly contracted, with both equity financing and industrial capital net reduction expanding, while southbound funds have shown a contraction, with a cumulative net inflow exceeding 700 billion over the past six months[2] Group 2: Trading Congestion - The trading heat index indicates that the media sector has increased by 23 percentage points to 73%, light industry by 18 percentage points to 60%, and military industry by 9 percentage points to 40%; conversely, the healthcare services sector has decreased by 12 percentage points to 43%, non-ferrous metals by 12 percentage points to 32%, and brokerage firms by 10 percentage points to 2%[2] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Overall market sentiment has shown a cautious rebound, with retail investor net inflows into A-shares amounting to 47.37 billion, a significant decrease of 158.04 billion from the previous value, placing it at the 9.0% percentile over the past five years[2] - The trend of public fund clustering has strengthened, with a focus on value and consumer sectors[2]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Strategy - The article emphasizes the need to boost domestic consumption, noting that China's consumption rate lags behind developed countries by 10-30 percentage points, particularly in service consumption[1] - Short-term measures include optimizing supply and reducing restrictions to enhance the availability of quality consumer goods and services[1] - Long-term strategies focus on increasing residents' income and improving the share of labor remuneration in national income distribution[1] Group 2: Investment Expansion - The report advocates for effective investment expansion, particularly in infrastructure, while maintaining a balance to avoid excessive investment[2] - Key investment areas include urban renewal, strategic transportation corridors, new energy systems, and major water conservancy projects[2] - The government plans to implement significant projects in consumer-related sectors, such as elderly care and health services, to support consumption[2] Group 3: Policy Developments - A recent plan aims to create three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots by 2027, focusing on areas like elderly products and smart connected vehicles[2] - The government has allocated 700 billion yuan and 800 billion yuan in special bonds for "hard investment" projects in the past two years[2] - The report highlights the importance of enhancing the efficiency of investment returns and addressing the issues of "heavy investment, light returns" in certain sectors[2]