Investment Rating - Strong Buy (Maintained) with a target price of 123.7 CNY/53.5 HKD [1] Core Views - Revenue in Q3 2024 reached a historical high of 15.609 billion CNY, a YoY/QoQ increase of 32.50%/14.14%, in line with previous guidance [1] - Gross margin improved significantly to 23.92%, up 10.27pct QoQ, exceeding the guidance range of 18%-20% [1] - Q4 2024 revenue is expected to grow 2% QoQ, with gross margin projected to be between 18%-20% [1] - Local demand continues to rise, with capacity utilization increasing to 90.4% and product mix optimization driving margin recovery [2] - The semiconductor industry cycle is recovering, with AI innovation driving demand growth, particularly in the AI sector, which is expected to grow over 10% [2] - Domestic substitution is accelerating, benefiting leading domestic foundries like SMIC, which is expanding capacity in 28nm and above processes [2] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue: 15.609 billion CNY, +32.50% YoY, +14.14% QoQ [1] - Q3 2024 gross margin: 23.92%, -0.13pct YoY, +10.27pct QoQ [1] - 2024E revenue: 57.806 billion CNY, +27.7% YoY [6] - 2024E net profit: 3.826 billion CNY, -20.7% YoY [6] - 2025E net profit: 5.495 billion CNY, +43.6% YoY [6] - 2026E net profit: 6.796 billion CNY, +23.7% YoY [6] Industry Outlook - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue growing, with AI and HPC sectors driving demand [2] - Domestic substitution is accelerating, with SMIC well-positioned to benefit from this trend due to its leading technology and capacity expansion [2] Valuation - 2025E PB multiple: 6.5x, target price: 123.7 CNY [2] - 2025E PB multiple for H-shares: 2.6x, target price: 53.5 HKD [2]

证券研究报 告 能源周报（20241111-20241117） 以黎冲突降温，OPEC 下调需求增速预期， 推荐（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the media industry, with a focus on domestic AI application progress [1] Core Views - The media sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 4.37% last week, ranking first among all sectors [1] - The sector is divided into two investment opportunities: cyclical recovery sectors like gaming, advertising, and film, and high-growth sectors like IP and AI [1] - AI-related sub-sectors such as AI advertising, AI companionship hardware/applications, and AI video production are highlighted as key areas for attention [1] Market Performance - The media (Shenwan) index rose by 1.07% last week, while the CSI 300 index fell by 3.29% [37] - Top gainers in the media sector included Century Tianhong (27.66%), Tiandi Online (26.25%), and BlueFocus (25.73%) [38] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 7.29%, but companies like Tencent, Meituan, and Alibaba are still recommended due to improving fundamentals [1] AI Applications - AI advertising is gaining traction, with companies like Applovin showing strong performance [1] - AI companionship hardware and applications are emerging, with products like ByteDance's AI companion doll and Casio's AI pet Moflin [1] - AI video production is advancing, with domestic models like Kuaishou's Keling and ByteDance's Pixverse V3 showing promising results [1] Gaming Sector - The gaming industry is expected to see a turning point as competition eases, with a focus on Q4 data for validation [1] - Recommended companies include恺英网络, 神州泰岳, and 巨人网络 [1] Internet Sector - Internet companies are showing resilience, with platform advantages becoming more evident [1] - Tencent and Meituan are recommended, while Alibaba, Kuaishou, and Bilibili are also worth watching [1] Film Sector - The film industry is expected to recover gradually, with a new product release cycle anticipated in 2025 [1] - Companies like 猫眼娱乐, 万达电影, and 光线传媒 are recommended for their potential in the recovery phase [1] Education Sector - The education and training industry is maintaining high growth due to policy, market structure, and performance improvements [4] - Recommended companies include 新东方, 好未来, and 学大教育 [4] Key Company Valuations - Key media companies like 神州泰岳, 三七互娱, and 分众传媒 are analyzed with their respective valuations and performance metrics [83]

证券研究报 告 化工行业新材料周报 本周缬氨酸、磷酸铁锂、废油脂生物柴油价 推荐（维持） 格上涨；UCO 被取消 13%出口退税 ❑ 根据我们的统计，本周价格涨幅较大的品种是缬氨酸（+4.72%）、磷酸铁锂 （+2.39%）、废油脂生物柴油（+1.56%）；本周价格跌幅较大的品种是氧 气（-3.5%）、氮气（-2.46%）、亚洲再生透明PET片材（-1.12%）。1）缬 氨酸：本周国内缬氨酸市场价 13.30 元/公斤，环比+4.72%，市场主流厂家报 价偏强调整，部分企业停产，市场交投偏淡，预计短期内缬氨酸价格震荡偏 强调整。2）磷酸铁锂：本周磷酸铁锂报价 3.43 万元/吨，周环比+2.39%。成 本端，主材电碳价格涨势强劲，现市场均价为 8.2 万元/吨，碳酸锂期货延续 上涨，带动现货报价跟涨，磷酸铁价格持稳。供应端，周内铁锂供应量较上 周有所回升。头部铁锂厂装置开工维持在 8-9 成左右，部分企业负荷拉满。 进入四季度的冲量关键节点，铁锂大厂稳步推进加大出货。中小企业而言， 周内部分订单外溢至二三线铁锂厂，企业按单增加排产计划，装置负荷回升 至 4-6 成。需求端，四季度采购积极性较高，车市迎来了一波 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 行业研究 银行 2024 年 11 月 17 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 行业研究 计算机 2024 年 11 月 17 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--- ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 行业研究 计算机 2024 年 11 月 17 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 未经许可，禁止转载 通信行业周报（20241111-20241117） 美股光模块三杰揭示 AI 及 DCI 需求旺盛， 推荐（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 【金工周报】（20241111-20241115） 短期择时模型多转中性，后市或震荡偏空 ❖ 本周回顾 本周市场普遍下跌，上证指数单周下跌 3.52%，创业板指单周下跌 3.36%。 A 股模型： 短期：成交量模型中性。低波动率模型中性。特征龙虎榜机构模型中性。特征 成交量模型看空。智能沪深 300 模型中性，智能中证 500 模型看空。 中期：涨跌停模型中性。月历效应模型中性。 长期：动量模型部分宽基模型看多。 综合：A 股综合兵器 V3 模型看空。A 股综合国证 2000 模型看空。 港股模型： 本周行业指数普遍下跌，除传媒外所有行业均下跌，跌幅前五的行业为：国防 军工、房地产、非银行金融、综合金融、农林牧渔。从资金流向角度来说，所 有行业主力资金净流出，其中电子、计算机、非银行金融、机械、电力设备及 新能源主力资金净流出居前。 本周股票型基金总仓位为 93.13%，相较于上周增加了 116 个 bps，混合型基金 总仓位 82.92%，相较于上周增加了 76 个 bps。 本周银行与煤炭获得最大机构加仓，家电与建材获得最大机构减仓。 本周偏债混合型基金表现相对较好，平均 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 钢铁行业周报（20241111-20241115） 证监会发布上市公司市值管理指引，板块估 推荐（维持） 值水平有望修复 ❑ 行业观点：需求季节性走弱，钢材价格短期承压 事件一：截至 11 月 15 日，五大品种螺纹钢线材、热轧、冷轧、中板价格分别 报收 3480 元/吨、3776 元/吨、3488 元/吨、4123 元/吨、3564 元/吨，周环比变 化-3.42%、-2.65%、-2.16%、-0.97%、-1.60%。本周五大品种产量 861.58 万吨， 周环比小幅上升 0.09 万吨。247 家钢铁企业日均铁水 235.94 万吨，周环比上 升 1.88 万吨，高炉产能利用率 88.58%，高炉开工率 82.08%，较上周分别上升 0.71 个百分点和下降 0.21 个百分点。短流程企业，电炉产能利用率 54.03%， 电炉开工率 71.43%，较上周环比上升 1.8 个百分点和 1.34 个百分点。库存方 面，本周钢材总库存 1203.79 万吨，周环比下降 15 万吨。其中社会库存环比 下降 7.26 万吨至 812.66 万吨；钢厂库存环比下降 7.74 万吨至 391 ...