Group 1: Revenue Insights - The fiscal revenue at the beginning of 2026 is unlikely to show significant upward momentum, particularly for the second account revenue primarily from land sales, which may face downward risks[2] - The first account revenue, mainly from tax income, is also expected to remain flat due to the lack of a significant "tail effect" from 2025 year-end revenues[18] - The "tail effect" refers to the practice of deferring revenue recognition to the next year when year-end budget pressures are low, which is not expected to be significant for Q1 2026[19] Group 2: Debt Insights - The issuance scale of new government debt at the beginning of 2026 is not expected to be significantly high, with net financing for national bonds projected between 0.7 to 1.5 trillion yuan, compared to 1.47 trillion yuan in Q1 2025[34] - For new local government bonds, the central estimate for Q1 2026 is approximately 1.23 trillion yuan, similar to the 1.24 trillion yuan issued in Q1 2025[36] - The issuance plans from local governments indicate that the new local bond issuance will not significantly exceed the previous year's levels, with 22 provinces planning a total of 802.3 billion yuan[40] Group 3: Project Insights - The effectiveness of project initiation at the beginning of the year is crucial, with major economic provinces like Guangdong and Jiangsu expected to play a significant role in driving investment[46] - The central government has allocated approximately 295 billion yuan for early project approvals, which does not show a significant increase compared to the previous year[48] - Key indicators from major provinces regarding project investment growth will need to be confirmed in mid-January 2026, as the initial signs are mixed[49]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In 2025, credit bond coupon value returned, and the expansion of ETFs brought a structural market. Credit risk events occurred sporadically, and the policy focus was on debt resolution and risk prevention. The net financing scale of credit bonds increased by nearly one trillion, and yields rose across the board [4][8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Annual Summary: Credit Bond Coupon Value Returned, and ETF Expansion Brought a Structural Market - Throughout 2025, the credit bond market was affected by various factors such as capital prices, policies, and market sentiment. The credit spread showed a trend of widening, narrowing, and then fluctuating. Overall, the 1y AA+ medium - and short - term note yield was reported at 1.78%, with the credit spread narrowing by 34BP to 23BP; the 3y AA+ medium - and short - term note yield rose by 6BP to 1.97%, with the credit spread narrowing by 21BP to 28BP; the 5y AA+ medium - and short - term note yield rose by 14BP to 2.18%, with the credit spread narrowing by 21BP to 37BP; the 10y AA+ medium - and short - term note yield rose by 30BP to 2.65%, with the credit spread widening by 2BP to 63BP [4][8][9]. II. Annual Major Events: Credit Risk Events Occurred Sporadically, and the Policy Focus was on Debt Resolution and Risk Prevention (1) Urban Investment: Debt Resolution and Arrears Clearance Accelerated, and Credit Risk Sentiment Decreased - **Hot Events**: In 2025, debt resolution continued, and two trillion in replacement bonds were issued, with Jiangsu issuing 251.1 billion yuan. The clearance of arrears accelerated, using both fiscal and financial means. The number of non - standard credit risk events in urban investment decreased significantly, and Inner Mongolia exited the list of key provinces, while Jilin met the exit criteria [21][22][28]. - **Regulatory Policies**: The central government supported the improvement and implementation of a package of debt - resolution plans. It required the implementation of debt replacement policies, regarded non - increase of implicit debt as an "iron - clad discipline", accelerated the stripping of the government financing function of local financing platforms, and promoted market - oriented transformation, as well as the clearance of local government arrears to enterprises [2][33]. (2) Real Estate: Vanke's Bond Extension at the End of the Year Slightly Exceeded Market Expectations, and Policies Continuously Promoted the Market to Stabilize and Recover - **Hot Events**: In 2025, Shenzhen Metro Group provided over 20 billion yuan in loans to Vanke to help it pay the principal and interest of its bonds in the public market. However, due to limited remaining credit, Vanke faced liquidity pressure and announced bond extensions at the end of the year. Only the motion to extend the grace period was passed in the bondholder meetings [39][40]. - **Regulatory Policies**: In 2025, real estate policies focused on demand, supply, and real - estate enterprise financing, aiming to promote market stability and build a new development model. On the demand side, it was necessary to release the potential of rigid and improved housing demand; on the supply side, high - quality urban renewal and the construction of "good houses" were emphasized; on the enterprise side, the reasonable financing needs of real - estate enterprises were supported, and the risk of debt default was prevented [44][46][47]. (3) Finance: AVIC Industry Finance, Tianan Property Insurance, and Jiutai Rural Commercial Bank Attracted Attention, and Active Measures were Taken to Prevent Financial Risks - **Hot Events**: The Ministry of Finance issued 500 billion yuan in special treasury bonds to support large banks in replenishing core tier - one capital. AVIC Industry Finance announced voluntary delisting, and the off - market bond payment plan was not approved. Tianan Property Insurance and Tianan Life Insurance defaulted on their bonds, and Jiutai Rural Commercial Bank's secondary capital bonds were significantly discounted [3][50][58]. - **Regulatory Policies**: In 2025, the central government adhered to preventing and resolving key financial risks and strictly adhered to the bottom - line of preventing systemic financial risks. It also issued high - quality development management measures for industries such as trust companies, asset management companies, commercial banks, and insurance companies to standardize their development [3][59][60]. (4) Others: The Science and Technology Bond and Credit Bond ETF Markets Developed Rapidly, and the Bond "South - Bound Connect" was Planned to be Extended to Non - Bank Institutions - **Bond Market "Science and Technology Board"**: Policies required the construction of a "science and technology board" in the bond market to support the issuance of science and technology innovation bonds. In 2025, the net financing of science and technology innovation bonds increased by nearly one trillion yuan year - on - year [65]. - **Credit Bond ETF**: In 2025, 8 benchmark - making credit bond ETFs and 24 science and technology innovation bond ETFs were listed, and the market scale expanded rapidly, reaching over 45 billion yuan by the end of the year [70]. - **Bond "South - Bound Connect"**: The scope of domestic investors in the Bond "South - Bound Connect" was planned to be expanded to non - bank institutions, and Hong Kong market bonds attracted market attention [72]. III. Review of the Primary and Secondary Markets of Credit Bonds: The Net Financing Scale Increased by Nearly One Trillion, and Yields Rose Across the Board (1) Primary Market: Industrial Bonds and Financial Bonds were the Main Supply Sources, and Urban Investment Bonds Continued to Shrink - In 2025, the net financing of credit bonds increased by 953.8 billion yuan year - on - year. Industrial bonds, supported by new science and technology bond policies, were the main supply source. The issuance of financial bonds accelerated in the third quarter due to the strong performance of the equity market, while the net supply of urban investment bonds continued to shrink [73]. (2) Secondary Market: Yields Generally Rose, Credit Spreads Narrowed Significantly at the Short - to - Medium End and Slightly Widened at the Long End - In 2025, the yields of credit bonds generally rose, especially at the medium - to - long end. The credit spreads showed a differentiated trend, narrowing significantly at the short - to - medium end and slightly widening at the long end. Non - financial bonds performed better than financial bonds [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given documents. 2. Core View of the Report In 2025, the bond market ended two consecutive years of rapid decline and entered a low - level oscillation. Due to the over - pursuit of interest rate cut expectations and capital gain games at the end of 2024, which over - exhausted the market's upward potential, the yield at the beginning of 2025 was at the annual low. Although the tariff disturbances in early April provided temporary support to the bond market, in the second half of the year, along with the repair of the stock - bond ratio and regulatory disturbances in the fund market, the bond market gradually adjusted, with the adjustment intensifying towards the end of the year and a significant increase in the ultra - long end. Driven by three main lines of central bank policy regulation, tariff games, and the stock - bond seesaw, the yield showed an "N - shaped" trend, and the ultra - long - term spread broke out of the low - level oscillation range, with the 30 - 10y Treasury term spread returning to the level of the second half of 2022 [5][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Annual Summary: Fast Bull Pause, Low - Level Balance - In 2025, the bond market shifted from a fast - bull market to a low - level balance. The yield started at a low point due to the over - speculation at the end of 2024. Throughout the year, it was affected by central bank policies, tariff games, and the stock - bond seesaw, showing an "N - shaped" trend [5][8]. - From January to March, the central bank tightened funds, causing the yield to rise to the annual high of 1.90%. From April to June, tariff disturbances and growth - stabilizing policies led to a narrow - range oscillation around 1.65%. From July to September, the stock - bond seesaw and regulatory new rules triggered an upward adjustment in yield. From October to the end of the year, factors such as tightened fund regulation, weakened monetary easing expectations, and supply - demand pressure in the ultra - long end led to a significant upward adjustment in the bond market [9]. 3.2 Stage Review: Central Bank → Tariff → Stock - Bond Seesaw, Yield "N - shaped" Trend 3.2.1 First Stage: Continuation of the Late - 2024 Rush - Ahead Market, Bond Market Reached the Annual Low - From late November 2024 to early January 2025, the reduction of non - bank inter - bank deposits in late November 2024 removed interest rate blockages, and the monetary policy turned "moderately loose". With the year - end rush - ahead by institutions, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond dropped below 1.6% to 1.59% in early January 2025 [5][12]. 3.2.2 Second Stage: Central Bank's Tightening of Funds Broke the Interest Rate Downward Inertia, Bond Market Corrected to the Annual High - From early January to the end of March 2025, the central bank tightened funds to address long - term interest rate risks and "fund idling". The bond market returned to a positive carry situation, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 1.60% to the annual high of 1.89%. After the tax period and at the end of the quarter, with the central bank's active liquidity injection, the bond market stabilized and recovered to around 1.80% [13][18]. 3.2.3 Third Stage: Tariff Friction and Growth - Stabilizing Policy Game, Yield Declined and Then Turned to Oscillation - From April to June 2025, the "reciprocal tariff" imposed by the US on China in early April and the subsequent domestic growth - stabilizing policies led to a rapid decline in yield, which then entered a narrow - range oscillation around 1.65%. In May, after the implementation of policies such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts, the bond market showed a "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" pattern, and the yield oscillated upwards. In June, with the central bank's release of a "loose money" signal and other factors, the yield dropped slightly to 1.65% [2][19]. 3.2.4 Fourth Stage: "Anti - Involution" and Regulatory New Rules Triggered Adjustment Pressure, Stock - Bond Seesaw Effect Prominent - From July to September 2025, after the weakening of external disturbances in July, the "anti - involution" policy made the stock - bond seesaw effect prominent, and the news of new fund sales rules increased the concern of bond fund redemptions. The bond market entered a period of headwinds, with the yield rising significantly and the curve steepening [25]. 3.2.5 Fifth Stage: The Year - End Consensus Expectation Was Broken, Bond Market Oscillated Weakly - From October to December 2025, after the escalation of tariff frictions in October, concerns about fund regulation led to preventive redemptions of bond funds by institutional investors. The central bank's bond - buying scale was lower than expected, and risk events in the real estate market and supply - demand pressure in the ultra - long end led to a significant upward adjustment in the bond market, with the 30 - year Treasury leading the decline and the curve steepening [30].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Zhejiang Zhengte (001238) for the first time [1] Core Views - The company has successfully transformed its flagship product, the "Starry Canopy," into a best-seller and aims to evolve from a single product focus to a platform brand through replicating its successful product methodology and channel asset reuse [6][7] - The company is positioned as a leader in the outdoor canopy industry, with significant growth expected due to innovative product iterations and strong channel partnerships [6][8] - The report anticipates robust revenue growth driven by the successful introduction of the Starry Canopy into major retail channels like Costco and Sam's Club, with projected net profits increasing significantly from 2025 to 2027 [9][8] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 1,237 million in 2024 to 2,945 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30.4% [2] - The net profit is expected to turn from a loss of 14 million in 2024 to a profit of 235 million by 2027, reflecting a significant recovery and growth trajectory [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from -0.13 in 2024 to 2.12 in 2027, indicating a strong turnaround [2] Company Overview - Zhejiang Zhengte has been deeply involved in the outdoor leisure furniture and products industry for nearly 30 years, with a focus on three core business lines: shading products, outdoor furniture, and camping [14] - The company has established partnerships with major retailers, including Walmart and Costco, enhancing its market presence [14][46] - The management team is stable and experienced, with a concentrated ownership structure that supports long-term strategic goals [21][14] Competitive Advantages - The company emphasizes innovation and iteration in product design, combining international design with local research and development [32][40] - Strong channel partnerships with high-profile clients create a competitive barrier, ensuring stable and large order volumes [46][48] - The supply chain is vertically integrated, which enhances cost efficiency and delivery capabilities, further strengthening the company's market position [53][56]

PMI Overview - December manufacturing PMI increased to 50.1%, up from 49.2% in November[1] - The production index rose to 51.7%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous value of 50.0%[1] - New orders index improved to 50.8%, up from 49.2%[1] - New export orders index increased to 49.0%, compared to 47.6% previously[1] Influencing Factors - Year-end factors contributed to a rise in construction PMI to 52.8%, up 3.2 percentage points from 49.6%[4] - Seasonal effects led to a strong production index at 51.7%, marking the highest for the quarter[5] - External demand showed resilience with the new export orders index at 49.0%, indicating a recovery in exports[6] Price and Inventory Insights - December's PMI factory price index was 48.9%, slightly up from 48.2%, remaining below the neutral line[2] - The main raw materials purchase price index stood at 53.1%, above the neutral line, indicating ongoing high demand[2] - Inventory indicators showed signs of replenishment, with the purchasing index at 51.1%, up from 49.5%[23] Economic Outlook - Manufacturing activity expectations index rose to 55.5%, up from 53.1%, reflecting improved sentiment[24] - Comprehensive PMI output index increased to 50.7%, indicating overall expansion in production activities[24]

港股公司 证 券 研 究 报 告 康耐特光学（02276.HK）重大事项点评 强推（维持） 智能眼镜首次纳入国补，看好消费级产品渗 透率加速提升 事项： ❖ 25 年 12 月 30 日，国家发改委、财政部发布 2026 年国补政策，首次将智能眼 镜纳入补贴范围，补贴标准为 15%，单件补贴上限 500 元（单件产品售价不超 过 6000 元）。根据测算，智能眼镜价格超过 3300 元基本可以全额享受国补。 评论： 其他轻工Ⅲ 2025 年 12 月 31 日 | 目标价：63.63 | 港元 | | --- | --- | | 当前价：51.80 | 港元 | 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：刘一怡 邮箱：liuyiyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524070003 联系人：周星宇 邮箱：zhouxingyu1@hcyjs.com ❖ 风险提示：智能眼镜发展不及预期、国内渠道拓展不及预期、行业竞争加剧。 [主要财务指标 Indicator_FinchinaSimpleHK] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 宽松过峰，股债重估 ❖ 核心观点 1、由于总量政策"摆脱超常规"叠加央行"优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量" 的表述，我们预计短期政府债增速和贷款增速或边际回落，这一过程或带来一 季度 M2 同比的持续下行。 2、考虑到近期市场波动率的小幅提升，居民存款加速搬家的概率不高的前提 下，M2 同比的回落会引致宏观流动性最宽松的时刻正在过去，历史经验来看， 这会对资产估值造成冲击。 3、但是本轮宏观流动性最宽松时段过去与历史相比存在三点不同： ①从基本面来看，当下基本面景气最确定的是中游，由于中游需求更依赖海外， 其景气相对独立，因此国内流动性的松紧对其需求影响不大，反而有助于其供 给侧的加速收缩。在这个视角下，国内流动性收缩对中游利润预期冲击不大。 ②从资产配置来看，绝对视角下，国际经验展示当下十债收益率仍低于国际合 理空间，相对视角下，我们的股债比价指标（股债夏普比率差值）仍显示当下 股票更具配置优势。因此如果流动性收缩冲击偏"贵"的资产的话，只要经济 循环仍在边际改善，那么债券反而是当下"偏贵"的资产。 ③如果经济遭遇突发事件打破循环，国内政策有望随时加码改善流动性 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 18.1, representing a potential upside of 64% from the current price of HKD 10.98 [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the "takeaway war" has ignited a new journey in instant retail, termed "everything to home," highlighting the significant growth potential in the instant retail sector [4][21]. - The company is identified as the largest third-party instant delivery service platform in China, benefiting from the synergy of its independent third-party status and the broader ecosystem of SF Express [8][9]. - Financial performance shows a continuous improvement in profitability, with gross margins increasing from -23.3% in 2018 to 6.8% in 2024, and adjusted net profit margins improving from -36.4% to 0.93% over the same period [8][9]. Summary by Sections Instant Retail Market - Instant retail is characterized by online ordering and offline fulfillment, aiming to meet local immediate demands, with a projected market size of RMB 781 billion in 2024, growing at 20.15% year-on-year [4][38]. - The competition among major players like Meituan, Taobao, and JD has intensified, with significant subsidies driving daily order volumes to record highs [13][14][15]. - The report outlines three main service models in instant retail: front warehouses, comprehensive instant retail platforms, and store-warehouse integrated self-operated models [23][26][30]. Company Overview - The company is positioned as the leading third-party instant delivery service provider, leveraging the SF Express brand reputation and service capabilities to create a synergistic effect [8][9]. - The internal and external growth mechanisms, termed "dual flywheel," are driving significant revenue growth, with a forecasted increase in net profit from RMB 132 million in 2024 to RMB 707 million by 2027 [9][5]. Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 15.746 billion in 2024 to RMB 32.731 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.1% [5]. - The adjusted net profit is projected to reach RMB 8.1 billion by 2027, with a corresponding adjusted price-to-earnings (PE) ratio decreasing from 25 in 2025 to 11 in 2027 [9][5].

证 券 研 究 报 告 房地产行业周报（2025 年第 52 周） 推荐（维持） 北京出台楼市新政，新房周成交环比上涨 行业研究 房地产 2025 年 12 月 31 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：许常捷 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030002 证券分析师：杨航 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525090001 行业基本数据 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -5.3% | 6.6% | -1.5% | | 相对表现 | -8.1% | -11.5% | -17.8% | -13% -2% 9% 21% 24/12 25/03 25/05 25/08 25/10 25/12 2024-12-31~2025-12-30 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《房地产行业重大事项点评：北京楼市再宽松》 2025-12-26 《房地产行业周报（2025 年第 5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - On December 30, the convertible bond industry showed mixed performance in terms of gains and losses, with valuations rising on a month - on - month basis [1]. - The mid - cap growth style was relatively dominant in the market [1]. - The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened [1]. - The convertible bond price center increased, and the proportion of high - price bonds rose [2]. - The convertible bond valuations increased [2]. - In the A - share market, more than half of the underlying stock industry indices declined, while in the convertible bond market, 14 industries rose [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - **Index Performance**: The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.14% month - on - month, the Shanghai Composite Index remained unchanged, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.49%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.63%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.06%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.04% [1]. - **Market Style**: Mid - cap growth was relatively dominant. Large - cap growth rose 0.57%, large - cap value fell 0.13%, mid - cap growth rose 0.81%, mid - cap value rose 0.66%, small - cap growth rose 0.66%, and small - cap value rose 0.34% [1]. - **Fund Performance**: The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market weakened. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 75.057 billion yuan, a 2.96% month - on - month decrease; the total trading volume of the Wind All - A was 2.161532 trillion yuan, a 0.18% month - on - month increase; the net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 23.828 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond decreased by 0.02 bp to 1.86% [1]. Convertible Bond Price - The overall weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 134.53 yuan, a 0.09% month - on - month increase. Among them, the closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 202.44 yuan, a 1.47% increase; the closing price of bond - biased convertible bonds was 118.85 yuan, a 0.18% decrease; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 129.71 yuan, a 0.01% increase [2]. - The proportion of bonds with a closing price above 130 yuan was 59.95%, a 1.15 - percentage - point increase. The largest change in proportion occurred in the 120 - 130 (including 130) range, with a proportion of 28.01%, a 1.39 - percentage - point decrease. There were no bonds with a closing price below 100 yuan. The median price was 132.60 yuan, a 0.07% month - on - month decrease [2]. Convertible Bond Valuation - The fitted conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value was 33.54%, a 0.45 - percentage - point month - on - month increase; the overall weighted par value was 101.88 yuan, a 0.19% month - on - month decrease [2]. - The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was 18.25%, a 1.38 - percentage - point increase; the premium rate of bond - biased convertible bonds was 86.78%, a 2.11 - percentage - point increase; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 25.17%, a 0.42 - percentage - point increase [2]. Industry Performance - **Underlying Stock Market**: Among the A - share industries, the top three decliners were Commerce and Retail (-1.56%), Real Estate (-1.22%), and Utilities (-1.14%); the top three gainers were Petroleum and Petrochemical (+2.63%), Automobile (+1.35%), and Non - Ferrous Metals (+1.31%) [3]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: Among the convertible bond industries, the top three gainers were Automobile (+2.08%), Petroleum and Petrochemical (+1.25%), and Textile and Apparel (+0.77%); the top three decliners were Environmental Protection (-2.57%), National Defense and Military Industry (-1.23%), and Building Materials (-1.16%) [3]. - **By Category**: - **Closing Price**: The large - cycle category decreased by 0.38%, manufacturing increased by 0.54%, technology decreased by 0.24%, large - consumption increased by 0.10%, and large - finance decreased by 0.05% [3]. - **Conversion Premium Rate**: The large - cycle category decreased by 0.21 percentage points, manufacturing increased by 0.57 percentage points, technology increased by 0.028 percentage points, large - consumption increased by 0.63 percentage points, and large - finance increased by 0.79 percentage points [3]. - **Conversion Value**: The large - cycle category decreased by 0.74%, manufacturing increased by 0.17%, technology decreased by 0.36%, large - consumption decreased by 0.43%, and large - finance decreased by 0.20% [3]. - **Pure Bond Premium Rate**: The large - cycle category decreased by 0.55 percentage points, manufacturing increased by 0.81 percentage points, technology decreased by 0.16 percentage points, large - consumption increased by 0.12 percentage points, and large - finance decreased by 0.065 percentage points [4]. Industry Rotation - Industries such as Petroleum and Petrochemical, Automobile, and Non - Ferrous Metals led the gains. For example, Petroleum and Petrochemical had a daily increase of 2.63% in the underlying stock market and 1.25% in the convertible bond market; Automobile had a 1.35% increase in the underlying stock market and 2.08% in the convertible bond market [54].