行业研究 证券研究报 告 能源周报（20241104-20241110） OPEC 推迟复产+特朗普胜选+飓风来袭，本周油价 推荐（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

行业研究 证券研究报 告 能源周报（20241104-20241110） OPEC 推迟复产+特朗普胜选+飓风来袭，本周油价 推荐（维持） 上涨 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 基础化工行业周报（20241104-20241110） 推荐（维持） 化债+内需驱动，民爆行业有望迎来景气上行 民爆行业预计将直接受益于化债带来的内需改善。11 月 8 日人大常委会发布 化债计划。三项政策协同发力后，地方化债压力将大大减轻。我们认为民爆行 业有望首先/直接受益于此轮地方债务化解。当前民爆下游需求结构整体呈现 矿山（包括煤矿，金属矿，非金属矿）：非矿=7：3 的格局，2024 年 1-9 月， 民爆行业在西藏和新疆等矿山/水利基建需求增加的大背景下，需求仍然呈现 下滑的状态，前三季度：民爆行业生产总值同比下滑 6.43%，总计净下滑 20.62 亿元，山西（-4.07 亿元），湖南省（-3.49 亿），黑龙江（-3.48 亿元），贵州 省（-2.47 亿元），重庆市（-2.13 亿元），广西（-2 亿元）是最主要的下滑省 份，基本全是当前地方财政压力较大的省份。主要原因或指向非矿类项目的开 工下滑。化债大背景下，民爆行业和政府/国企之间直接结算/间接结算的矿山 项目开工有望恢复，现金流有望改善。建议关注保利联合、易普力、广东宏大 /雪峰科技、江南化工等标的。 本周三氯蔗 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 海利得（002206）2024 年三季报点评 推荐（维持） 主业稳健增长，越南布局持续推进 目标价：5.46 元 当前价：4.47 元 事项： 公司发布 2024 年三季报，2024 前三季度公司实现营业收入 43.68 亿元，同比 变化+2.5%，实现归母净利润 2.96 亿元，同比变化+8.94%，实现扣非后归母净 利润 2.84 亿元，同比变化+1.51%；其中 2024 年第三季度，公司实现营业收入 14.91 亿元，同比/环比变化-0.05%/-0.31%，实现归母净利润 1.07 亿元，同比/ 环比变化+6.45%/-7.05%，实现扣非后归母净利润 0.97 亿元，同比/环比变化0.79%/-12.36%。 评论： 受益于轮胎帘子布及越南工业丝产能释放，公司业绩显著改善。前三季度公司 营收同比增长 2.5%，归母净利润同比增长 8.94%，主要受益于轮胎帘子布第 四条产线产能和越南工业丝产能完全释放。此外，1.8 万吨高性能轮胎帘子布 越南项目已完成初期设计、规划、平面布置等前期工作，越南基地有助于公司 承接海外市场差异化产品需求，亦享有一定税收优惠，项目投产后有望进一步 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 风电行业 2024 年三季报综述 Q3 风电景气度已显著回升，看好 25 年订单 推荐（维持） 交付业绩放量 24Q1-3 风机招标量同比+93%，预计 25 年海/陆装机同比+71%/+40%。风电 景气度持续回升，2024Q1-3 新增风电装机 39.1GW，同比+16.8%，其中海/陆 分别新增 2.5/36.7GW，同比+72.7%/+14.4%。根据项目最新进展，预计全年新 增 92GW，其中海/陆分别为 7/85GW，同比+2.5%/+23.4%。据金风科技业绩材 料，2024 年以来风机招标高增，前三季度招标量达 119.1GW，同比+93%，其 中海/陆分别招标 7.6/111.5GW。在临近"十四五"末，且招标高度景气的背景下， 预计 25 年风电新增装机达 131GW，同比+42.4%，其中海/陆分别为 12/119GW， 同比+71.4%/+40%。 24Q1-3 营收同比增长，盈利端仍有所承压。从样本数据来看，2024Q1-3 风电 板块实现营收 2939.6 亿元，同比+5.1%；归母净利润 143 亿元，同比-16.5%； 毛利率为 15%，同比-1.7pc ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a **"Recommend"** rating for the pharmaceutical industry, indicating a positive outlook for 2025 [3] Core Views - The pharmaceutical industry is at a **fundamental inflection point** with significant long-term growth potential, driven by policy support, improved financing conditions, and the normalization of anti-corruption measures [2][8] - The industry is expected to recover as temporary factors such as anti-corruption campaigns, delayed equipment updates, and medical insurance fund rectifications are resolved [2][8] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in **high-growth sectors** (e.g., innovative drugs, medical consumables, anesthetics) and sectors nearing inflection points with long-term potential (e.g., medical devices, CXO, consumer healthcare services, traditional Chinese medicine) [2][8] Sector-Specific Insights Innovative Drugs - Domestic innovative drugs are gaining international recognition, with overseas licensing deals reaching nearly **$40 billion in 2023**, driven by companies like Kelun-Biotech and Baili Heng [2][46][75] - The sales revenue of major A/H-listed innovative drug companies has grown at a **CAGR of 50% over the past three years**, supported by rational price reductions in domestic medical insurance negotiations [2][8] Traditional Pharmaceutical Companies - Traditional pharmaceutical companies are transitioning to innovation-driven growth, with some already achieving significant milestones in 2024, and further acceleration in performance expected [2][8] Blood Products - The blood products sector remains highly prosperous, with increased plasma collection stations during the 14th Five-Year Plan, leading to improved product variety and capacity expansion [2][8] APIs (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients) - The API sector is entering a new growth cycle, driven by policies like centralized procurement and the integration of API and formulation production, which enhances cost and quality advantages [2][8] CXO and Life Science Services - The CXO sector is expected to rebound, with overseas financing recovering and domestic financing bottoming out, leading to a potential reversal in 2025 [2][8] - Life science services are also recovering, with companies entering a high-profit elasticity phase after clearing over-leveraged operations [2][8] Medical Devices - Domestic medical device companies are accelerating their overseas expansion, with significant opportunities in high-value consumables and IVD (in vitro diagnostics) sectors [2][8] - The delayed demand for medical equipment updates in domestic hospitals is expected to be released in 2025, driving growth [2][68] Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) - TCM companies are benefiting from state-owned enterprise reforms, policy support, and the potential for valuation recovery in high-value consumer TCM products [2][8] Healthcare Services - The healthcare services sector is expected to recover as macroeconomic policies improve consumer expectations and local fiscal policies ease concerns over medical insurance reimbursement cycles [2][5][69] Retail Pharmacy - The retail pharmacy sector is slowing its expansion pace, waiting for a turning point as policy pressures and competition intensify, with potential consolidation opportunities for leading players [5][9] Market Performance and Data - The pharmaceutical industry has underperformed in 2024, with the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index declining by **9.46%** year-to-date, ranking second to last among industries [22] - The industry's total market capitalization stands at **¥6.35 trillion**, with a circulating market capitalization of **¥5.27 trillion**, accounting for **6.55%** and **6.86%** of the total market, respectively [4] Long-Term Growth Potential - The pharmaceutical industry in China still has significant growth potential, with **CAGR of 6.6%** in drug expenditure from 2013 to 2022, outpacing the US market's **5.0% CAGR** [39] - The medical device market is expected to grow at a **CAGR of 10.6%** from 2021 to 2025, compared to **4.5%** in the US [39] Internationalization and High-End Manufacturing - Chinese pharmaceutical companies are transitioning from low-end manufacturing to high-end innovation, with significant progress in overseas licensing and approvals for innovative drugs [46][47] - Medical device companies are expanding into high-value consumables and equipment, with overseas revenue contributions increasing for companies like Mindray and Lepu Medical [47][49]

证券研究报 告 汽车行业重大事项点评 推荐（维持） 10 月销量延续亮眼表现，新能源续创新高 事项： 乘联会发布数据，10 月狭义乘用车产量 265 万辆，同比+8%，环比+9%； 批发 273 万辆、同比+11%、环比+9%。 评论： 10 月销量延续 9 月亮眼表现，新能源渗透率续创历史新高。10 月乘用车批 发销量，为 273 万辆、同比+11%、环比+9%。我们估计最终 10 月零售约 213 万辆、同比+13%、环比+1%。电车本月批发 136.9 万辆、同比+55%、 环比+11%，渗透率 50%，续创历史新高、同比+14.2PP、环比+0.9PP。 1) 库存：本月出口 44 万辆，同比+6%、环比-2%，对应最终渠道补库 16 万辆，历史季节性为加库14万辆，符合历史季节性表现，主机厂库存 节奏基本跟上终端火热的需求。从我们测算的数据看，现在总库存在 275 万左右，燃油车库存在 100 万左右，整体库存已低于去年同期。 2) 价格：10 月上旬行业折扣率环比持平（油车为主），折扣率 5.5%，环 比-0.1PP（9/25），较去年同期+1.7PP（10/10）。 3) 新能源：137 万辆、 ...

证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 未经许可，禁止转载 证 券 研 究 报 告 航空行业跟踪报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 10 月风电数据跟踪报告 10 月海/陆风机招标同比高增，中标价格均环 推荐（维持） 比回升 招标量：1-10 月风电招标 98GW，同比+83% 风机：10 月海/陆分别招标 0.3/13.3GW，同比+46.7%/+454.6%。2024 年 1-10 月，风电共招标 97.6GW，同比+83.3%；10 月风电招标量为 13.6GW， 同/环比+421.8%/+29.8%。分类来看，2024 年 1-10 月海/陆分别招标 7/90.6GW ，同比 -5.4%/+97.7%； 10 月 陆风招 标 13.3GW ，同 /环比 +454.6%/+55.8%；海风招标 0.3GW，为苍南 2 号二期项目，同/环比 +46.7%/-84.2%。 海缆：1-10 月送出缆/场内缆分别招标 6.3/6.1GW，月内广东/广西项目启 动海缆招标。2024 年 1-10 月，送出缆/场内缆分别招标 6.3GW/6.1GW； 其中 10 月招标送出缆/场内缆 1.4/1.9GW，涉及广东阳江帆石一和广西钦 州海风示范项目。 中标量：1-10 月风电中标 98GW，同比+73% 风机：10 月风机 ...

证券研究报 告 非银金融行业数据周报（20241104-20241108） 推荐（维持） 非银板块跑赢大盘，交易活跃度持续上行 市场行情：本周券商指数上涨 14.50%，跑赢大盘 9.00pct，近三年 PB 估值分 位数为 93.9%；保险指数上涨 6.65%，跑赢大盘 1.14pct，近三年 PB 估值分位 数为 99.4%。本周涨跌幅：沪深 300：+5.50%，中证 500：+6.70%，中证 1000：+8.31%， 国 企 红 利 指 数 ：+1.33%， 中 证 2000：+9.12%， 微 盘 ： +8.97%。中证 2000 较中证 500 跑赢 2.43 pct，微盘股指数较中证 500 跑赢 2.27pct。 券商板块跑赢大盘。1）市场行情：同花顺+50.40%、华林证券+45.02%、中 信证券+24.79%、 西 部 证 券+24.07%、 东 方 财 富+22.78%、中信建投 +22.26%、太平洋+15.51%、指南针+14.97%。2）经纪业务：本周市场日均成 交量 23987.21 亿元（环比+14.86%），成交量有所上升。3）信用业务：两融 余额 1.79 万亿元（环比 ...