Liquidity - The issuance of equity mutual funds reached 327.9 billion units, with actively managed funds at 231.2 billion units, marking a new high since 2022[6] - Margin financing net outflow was approximately -71 billion, placing it in the 23rd percentile over the past three years[13] - Stock ETFs experienced a net outflow of -3168.2 billion, which is in the 1st percentile over the past three years[22] Market Trends - The total net outflow of broad-based ETFs exceeded 1 trillion, with significant outflows from the CSI 300 (-581.8 billion), CSI 1000 (-130.3 billion), and Shanghai Composite (-984 billion)[22] - The stock market showed high volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping over 2% on January 30, leading to increased search interest in A-shares on social media[67] Investor Sentiment - Retail investors saw a net inflow of 216.8 billion in A-shares, an increase of 969.7 billion from the previous value, placing it in the 95.6th percentile over the past five years[2] - The trend of public funds clustering has weakened, shifting towards growth and consumer sectors[2] Sector Performance - The trading heat for the photovoltaic sector increased by 25 percentage points to 79%, while the consumer electronics sector decreased by 9 percentage points to 59%[45] - The demand for equity financing expanded to 159 billion, ranking in the 69th percentile over the past three years, while the net reduction in industrial capital decreased to -81.8 billion, ranking in the 74th percentile[27][30]

- The DecompGRU model was used to construct a weekly long-only stock selection portfolio, holding the top 200 stocks with the highest integrated scores equally weighted The portfolio is rebalanced weekly based on the updated factor values from the previous Friday's closing prices Stocks with price limits or suspension are excluded, and transaction costs are not considered The benchmark is the CSI All Share Equal Weight Index[8][10] - The DecompGRU model's individual stock scores were aggregated to construct an ETF rotation portfolio The ETF pool is limited to industry and thematic ETFs, retaining only the ETF with the highest average daily trading volume over the past five days if multiple ETFs track the same index The portfolio is rebalanced weekly, holding 2-6 ETFs per period, with a benchmark of the Wind Thematic ETF Index[11][13] - A sentiment factor was constructed using user behavior data from Tonghuashun, aggregating stock-level heat indicators (browsing, watchlist, and click counts) normalized as a percentage of the total market and scaled by 10,000 This aggregated heat indicator serves as a proxy for "sentiment heat" at the broad-based index, industry, and concept levels[15][19][28] - A simple rotation strategy was built based on the weekly heat change rate (MA2) of broad-based indices, buying the index with the highest heat change rate on the last trading day of each week If the "Others" group has the highest change rate, the strategy remains in cash The strategy achieved an annualized return of 8.74% since 2017, with a maximum drawdown of 23.5%[21][24] - A concept-level sentiment strategy was constructed by selecting the top 5 concepts with the highest weekly heat change rates, excluding the bottom 20% of stocks by market capitalization within each concept From each concept, the top 10 stocks by total heat were equally weighted to form the "TOP" portfolio, while the bottom 10 stocks formed the "BOTTOM" portfolio The BOTTOM portfolio achieved an annualized return of 15.71% with a maximum drawdown of 28.89%[39][41][42] - The DecompGRU TOP200 portfolio achieved a cumulative absolute return of 74.91% and an excess return of 38.96% relative to the CSI All Share Equal Weight Index since its inception on March 31, 2025 The portfolio's maximum drawdown was 10.08%, with a weekly win rate of 68.18% and a monthly win rate of 100% In January 2026, the portfolio's absolute return was 8.99%, with an excess return of 0.98%[10] - The ETF rotation portfolio achieved a cumulative absolute return of 40.08% and an excess return of 5.93% relative to the Wind Thematic ETF Index since its inception on March 18, 2025 The portfolio's maximum drawdown was 7.82%, with a weekly win rate of 64.44% and a monthly win rate of 70% In January 2026, the portfolio's absolute return was 10.98%, with an excess return of 3.37%[13][14] - The broad-based index heat momentum strategy achieved a cumulative return of 6.6% in 2026[24] - The concept-level sentiment BOTTOM portfolio achieved a cumulative return of 3.7% in 2026[42]

| | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 23,862 | 38,337 | 90,981 | 145,304 | | 同比增速(%) | 122.6% | 60.7% | 137.3% | 59.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 5,171 | 10,889 | 28,081 | 47,186 | | 同比增速(%) | 137.9% | 110.6% | 157.9% | 68.0% | | 每股盈利(元) | 4.65 | 9.80 | 25.27 | 42.47 | | 市盈率(倍) | 139 | 66 | 26 | 15 | | 市净率(倍) | 37.7 | 24.6 | 12.8 | 7.2 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2026 年 1 月 30 日收盘价 证 券 研 究 报 告 中际旭创（300308）2025 年业绩预告点评 强推（维持） 业绩符合预期，1.6T 有望快速放量 当前价：649.00 元 [ReportFinancialIndex ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 2025 年城投非标融资及信用舆情数据全览 2025 年全国城投信托融资及规模均同比下降 50%以上。2025 年，全国城投公 司及其子公司共发生信托融资 2669 笔，融资规模共计 1627 亿元。区域层面， 2025 年共有 21 省城投主体涉及信托融资，除甘肃和北京外，其余各省数量及 规模均有所下降，吉林、天津等地区降幅领先。 租赁融资：监管指导金租稳妥退出城投业务，融资规模继续小幅下降 监管指导推动金租稳妥退出城投业务。2024 年 5 月 9 日，金监局非银机构监 管司党支部在中国银行保险报发表《严控风险 发挥特色功能 推动非银机构更 好服务高质量发展》一文，其中提到：推动金融租赁公司积极稳妥退出融资平 台业务，严禁将不适格租赁物进行重组、续作。 2025 年全国城投租赁融资数量同比上升 2%，规模同比下降 8%。2025 年，全 国城投公司及其子公司共发生租赁融资 9029 笔，规模合计 9043 亿元。区域 层面，2025 年 31 省均有城投主体涉及租赁融资，其中 12 省数量同比减少， 20 省规模同比下降。 城投信用风险舆情有所减少，债务风险继续缓释 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 财政的三个年度级别转折 ——12 月财政数据点评 事 项 12 月广义财政收入同比-18.5%，11 月同比-5.2%；12 月广义财政支出同比-0.7%， 11 月同比-1.7%。2025 年广义财政收入同比-2.9%，2024 年同比-2.0%，2025 年 广义财政支出同比 3.7%，2024 年同比 2.7%。 核心观点 对于 2025 年财政运行，我们观察到债务表述（从逆周期到重提跨周期）、收 入方向（从负反馈到正反馈）、支出结构（从投资于物到投资于人）三个年度 级别转折，或对投资者感知 2026 年财政有启发。 主要观点 一、财政的三个年度级别转折 （一）债务表述的转折：从逆周期到重提跨周期 2024 年底，中央经济工作会议要求加强超常规"逆周期"调节，对应 2025 年 财政部"加大逆周期调节力度"：狭义赤字率提升 1 个百分点至 4%，新增政 府债务规模 11.86 万亿元，比上年增加 2.9 万亿元，这些都远超前几年的平均 水平。此外，我们测算的各口径广义赤字率提升也都不低于 1 个百分点（详见 正文）。 2025 年底，中央经济工作会议重提"跨周期调节 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [18]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant growth in global AIDC demand, with major cloud service providers increasing capital expenditures and adjusting pricing strategies. For instance, Meta raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $125 billion, a 73% year-on-year increase [2]. - The report emphasizes that the AIDC industry is entering a new structural expansion cycle, driven by the scarcity of computing power and rising costs in the supply chain, including a forecasted 12% CAGR growth in the global cloud computing market from approximately $1.29 trillion in 2025 to about $2.28 trillion by 2030 [7]. - The competition in the AI model space is intensifying, with companies like Alibaba and Tencent rapidly advancing their AI capabilities, which is expected to drive backend demand for computing resources [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The AIDC market is projected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.5%, shifting the industry's core barriers from capital investment to technology integration and operational efficiency [7]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the demand for AIDC is being fueled by the rapid evolution of AI models, which necessitates significant computational resources. This shift is prompting cloud service providers to raise prices, breaking a long-standing trend of price reductions in the industry [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on several key players across different segments: 1. Cloud Computing: Alibaba, NET, Shenxinfu, Kingsoft Cloud, New Idea Network Group, and UCloud [7] 2. AIDC: Runze Technology, Baoxin Software, Data Port, Guanghuan New Network, Aofei Data, and Yunsai Zhili [7] 3. Computing Services: Xiechuang Data, Hongjing Technology, Dazhi Technology, Youfang Technology, Litong Electronics, and Zhiwei Intelligent [7] 4. CDN: Wangsu Technology [7] 5. Chips: Haiguang Information, Cambrian, Muxi Shares, Tianshu Zhixin, Moer Thread, and Longxin Zhongke [7] 6. Large Models: Minimax, Zhipu, and iFlytek [7].

行业研究 轻工制造 2026 年 02 月 02 日 华创证券研究所 证 券 研 究 报 告 轻工纺服行业周报（20260126-20260201） 泳池机器人行业梳理：水下蓝海百舸争流， 推荐（维持） 池间智造万虑皆清 周专题：泳池机器人行业梳理 行业规模：供给创造需求，全球泳池清洁支出超百亿美元，无缆泳池机器 人渗透率持续提升。全球泳池数量持续扩容，2024 年全球泳池总数约 3290 万 个，对应泳池清洁开支约 129 亿美元。对比人工清洁，泳池机器人具有成本和 效率优势，市场迎来快速扩容，全球出货量从 2019 年的 250 万台提升到 2024 年的 450 万台，对应 CAGR 为 12.0%。其中，无缆产品可解决线缆打结和覆 盖面积等难点，渗透率从 2019 年的 4.0%提升至 2024 年的 44.5%。 行业格局：份额集中，望圆科技是全球第三、中国第一的泳池机器人龙头 企业。全球泳池机器人市场整体呈现出明显的"双超多强"格局，2024 年以色 列巨头 Maytronics 与西班牙老牌 Fluidra 分别占市场份额的 34.8%/18.5%。而 望圆科技在无缆泳池机器人赛道份额领先，占市 ...

Group 1: Kevin Warsh's Nomination and Market Impact - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair is not following the linear logic previously expected by investors, indicating a shift in market dynamics[3] - Warsh is seen as a "hawk" on inflation, advocating for interest rate cuts while attempting to restore market and fiscal discipline through quantitative tightening[3] - His approach aims to redirect excess liquidity from financial markets into the real economy and the U.S. Treasury market[3] Group 2: Candidate Comparison and Selection Rationale - Among the four candidates considered, Warsh had the lowest compliance probability (30%-40%), contrasting with Kevin Hassett's 90%-95%[7] - The choice of Warsh was influenced by the need to appease traditional Republican establishment figures and address rising pressures in the U.S. Treasury market[10] - Warsh's nomination is seen as a strategic move to avoid potential market turmoil that could arise from selecting a more compliant candidate like Hassett[10] Group 3: Warsh's Monetary Policy Philosophy - Warsh criticizes the combination of strong regulation and quantitative easing, viewing it as financial repression that distorts long-term Treasury yields[11] - He advocates for restoring market discipline, which includes allowing long-term Treasury yields to reflect inflation expectations and debt risks[11] - His policy aims to lower financing costs for small and medium enterprises, aligning with Trump's economic growth narrative[14] Group 4: Implications for Fiscal Policy - Warsh's monetary policy approach necessitates a reduction in the duration of outstanding U.S. Treasury debt to manage interest expenses effectively[15] - The potential for a significant decrease in interest expenses as a percentage of GDP is highlighted, drawing parallels to historical fiscal strategies post-World War II[17] - Warsh's policies are designed to balance the need for fiscal discipline while supporting economic growth through lower financing costs[20]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 ❖ 近一周，中央层面政策出台不多，主要关注以下内容： 1、外交：1 月 29 日，商务部召开例行发布会，有记者提问"美国贸易代表日 前在达沃斯向记者表示，在可能于 4 月举行的中美领导人会晤之前，中美双 方有机会开启新一轮经贸谈判"。 2、反腐：1 月 27 日，总理在国务院第四次廉政工作会议上指出，深刻理解和 把握管党治党越往后越严、一严到底的鲜明立场，树立和践行正确政绩观。 3、产业：一是光伏反内卷。1 月 28 日，工信部部长召开光伏行业企业家座谈 会，提出当前形势下，"反内卷"是光伏行业规范治理的主要矛盾，要求综合运 用产能控制等手段坚决破除行业内卷式竞争。二是发电侧容量电价改革。1 月 30 日，国家发改委等引发通知，对现行煤电、气电、抽水蓄能容量电价机制 进行了完善，并首次在国家层面明确建立电网侧独立新型储能容量电价机制。 4、资本市场：1 月 30 日，证监会召开资本市场"十五五"规划上市公司座谈会， 吴清主席在会上提出，高质量编制和实施好资本市场"十五五"规划，全力巩 固资本市场稳中向好势头，聚焦持续深化资本市场投融资综合改革、提高制度 包容性适应性，抓紧 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the food and beverage industry, anticipating that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [21]. Core Insights - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to drive demand, with Moutai's sales volume and price exceeding expectations. The i Moutai reform is effectively expanding consumer reach and driving demand through both online and offline channels [4][5]. - The report highlights a significant increase in Moutai's sales and price, with the price of the flying Moutai reaching 1,600 yuan, indicating strong market demand and potential supply shortages [4]. - The performance of high-value products is also noted, with inventory levels low and demand for premium and aged wines showing positive growth [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the sales performance of Moutai and other leading brands during the Spring Festival, as they are expected to benefit significantly from seasonal demand [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The food and beverage industry consists of 126 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 440.13 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 429.61 billion yuan [1]. Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance of the industry over the past month is -0.3%, -3.5% over six months, and 0.1% over twelve months. The relative performance shows a decline of -1.5% over one month, -16.9% over six months, and -23.2% over twelve months [2]. Sales and Inventory Tracking - Moutai's repayment and shipment rates are reported at over 30%, with significant sales growth observed in various regions. Other brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao are experiencing mixed performance, with some regions reporting stable sales while others face declines [6].