证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 多方部署"反内卷"——政策周观察第 71 期 1、"反内卷"及统一大市场：1）3 月 15 日，全国人民代表大会常务委员会工 作报告发布，提到将修改招标投标法、政府采购法、价格法，今年全国人大常 委会还将就建设全国统一大市场等议题听取审议"一府一委两院"专项工作报 告。2）3 月 13 日，国常会研究建立地方财政补贴负面清单管理机制，制定全 国统一的地方财政补贴负面清单，进一步明确地方政府禁止实施财政补贴的具 体情形。3）3 月 14 日，新华社受权发布国家发改委计划报告，提到"有序压 减钢铁、炼油等行业产能，强化铜冶炼、氧化铝、煤化工等行业产能治理，优 化乙烯、对二甲苯行业布局结构"。4）3 月 14 日，新华社受权发布预算草案 报告，提到"禁地方超越法律法规授权自行制定税收优惠政策。对阶段性税收 优惠政策到期后逐项评估，该调整的调整，该取消的取消"。 2、科技产业：1）3 月 15 日，《求是》杂志发表总书记重要文章《推动海洋经 济高质量发展》。文章提到，"推进中国式现代化，必须高效开发利用海洋，推 动海洋经济高质量发展，走出一条具有中国特色的向海图强之路"，将"编制 ...

Core Conclusions - The report highlights the dual emphasis on "technology" and "international" in the latest five-year plan, indicating a strengthened focus on technological self-reliance and open cooperation, while also prioritizing the enhancement of development efficiency and solidifying industrial foundations [3] - The analysis of policy intensity reveals an increase in the focus on "new quality productivity," "strong domestic economy," "cultural construction," "population development," "green development," and "safe China," reflecting a heightened concern for sustainable development and social stability [6][11] - The report identifies over 100 specific industry allocation clues under 15 major themes, with a focus on sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, deep-sea technology, the inaugural economy, catering and tourism, Hainan Free Trade Port, urban village renovation, vocational education, and cybersecurity, which show favorable valuation and profit matching [3] Frequency Statistics of Keywords in Previous Five-Year Plans - The report utilizes keyword frequency analysis to show that "development" and "construction" remain dominant themes across five-year plans, with "technology" and "international" entering the top twenty for the first time in the latest plan, indicating a shift towards practical guidance focused on enhancing development efficiency [4] - The report provides a detailed frequency count of keywords across different five-year plans, showing the evolution of policy focus over time [4] Chapter Arrangement and Length Statistics of Previous Five-Year Plans - The report analyzes the chapter arrangement and length of previous five-year plans, noting that the latest plan has improved rankings in chapters related to modern industrial systems, digital China, and foreign openness, with significant increases in chapter length for themes such as foreign openness and cultural construction [5] - The report highlights the percentage increase in chapter length for various themes, indicating a shift in policy focus and priorities [5] Policy Intensity Analysis - The report assesses the policy intensity of various themes, noting that "new quality productivity" and "strong domestic economy" have seen increases in both intensity and chapter length, reflecting a more proactive policy stance [6] - The report also indicates that "cultural construction" and "population development" have increased in policy intensity and length, emphasizing the importance of investing in human capital [11] - The report highlights the increased focus on "green development" and "safe China," indicating a strategic direction towards sustainable development and social stability [25]

证 券 研 究 报 告 轻工纺服行业周报（20260309-20260315） 推荐（维持） 惠康科技招股书梳理：一器清冰，四时纳凉 行业研究 轻工制造 2026 年 03 月 16 日 $$\mathbb{H}\mathbb{H}\left(\mathbb{H}\mathbb{H}\right)$$ 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：刘一怡 邮箱：liuyiyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524070003 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -1.6% | 9.4% | 28.3% | | 相对表现 | -1.8% | 6.2% | 8.9% | -14% 0% 14% 28% 25/03 25/05 25/08 25/10 25/12 26/03 2025-03-17~2026-03-13 轻工制造 沪深300 相关研究报告 《【华创轻纺】轻工纺服行业周报（20260302- 20260308）：群核科技招股书梳理：以方寸之屏， 筑万象天地》 2026-03-09 《【华创轻纺】轻工纺服行业周报（20260223- 2 ...

Economic Goals - The outline states that by 2035, the per capita GDP is expected to double compared to 2020, reaching a level above $20,000, with an average annual growth rate of 4.17% over the next decade[2][10]. - The GDP growth will be maintained within a reasonable range, with annual adjustments based on circumstances[10]. Major Targets - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines 20 major targets, including a 7% annual increase in R&D expenditure and a 17% reduction in carbon emissions per unit of GDP[3][11]. - New indicators include increasing the proportion of care beds in elderly care institutions and improving the enrollment rate of children under three in childcare services[3][11]. Major Projects - A total of 109 major projects will be implemented during the "15th Five-Year Plan," focusing on new industrial capabilities, technological innovation, and infrastructure development, compared to 102 projects in the previous plan[4][12]. - Key areas for new projects include integrated circuits, intelligent manufacturing, and green hydrogen energy[4][12]. Technological Innovation - The plan emphasizes the deep integration of technological and industrial innovation, including establishing a corporate R&D reserve fund and supporting quality tech companies in financing[5][16]. - It aims to enhance the efficiency of data and algorithm supply, promoting innovation in AI and digital technologies[19][20]. Infrastructure Development - The plan prioritizes new infrastructure, renewable energy, and urban renewal, with specific targets for the construction of gas, water, and sewage pipelines totaling approximately 20, 17.5, and 10 million kilometers respectively[23][24]. - It also emphasizes the construction of a national integrated computing network and the development of renewable energy sources[23][24].

证 券 研 究 报 告 轻工纺服行业周报（20260309-20260315） 推荐（维持） 惠康科技招股书梳理：一器清冰，四时纳凉 行业研究 轻工制造 2026 年 03 月 16 日 $$\mathbb{H}\mathbb{H}\left(\mathbb{H}\mathbb{H}\right)$$ 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：刘一怡 邮箱：liuyiyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524070003 联系人：周星宇 邮箱：zhouxingyu1@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 165 | 0.02 | | 总市值(亿元) | 11,428.51 | 0.89 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 9,715.26 | 0.94 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -1.6% | 9.4% | 28.3% | | 相对表现 | -1.8% | 6.2% | 8.9% | -14% 0% 14% 28% 25/03 25 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 大宗商品价格指数升至 2011 年以来最高水平 ——海外周报第 131 期 ❖ 核心观点： 1、重要数据回顾：①美国 1 月核心 PCE 同比创 2024 年 3 月以来最高水平， ADP 报告显示就业岗位增长较快，3 月密歇根大学消费者信心指数创三个月 新低，1 月 JOLTS 职位空缺大幅增加。②日本 2 月批发通胀继续放缓。③欧 元区 3 月 Sentix 投资者信心指数大降，1 月欧元区工业产出环比为 2024 年 12 月以来的最低水平。 2、美国基本面高频：①景气上行的有：WEI 指数（经济景气上行）、就业（初 请失业金人数回落、续请失业金回落）、物价（大宗价格回落、美国汽油零售 价回升）、地产（房贷申请数量回落）。②景气下行的有：消费（红皮书商业零 售同比边际回落）。 3、美国流动性高频：①美国和欧元区金融条件收紧。②离岸美元流动性：日 元兑美元流动性改善，欧元兑美元流动性恶化。 ❖ 一、过去一周重要数据回顾 1、美国 1 月核心 PCE 同比创 2024 年 3 月以来最高水平，ADP 报告显示就业 岗位增长较快，3 月密歇根大学消费者信心指 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 京东物流（02618.HK）2025 年报点评 推荐（维持） 25 年经调净利润 77.1 亿，持续深耕一体化供 应链，海外业务持续发力 风险提示：京东增速低于预期，第三方业务拓展低于预期，人工成本大幅上升。 [主要财务指标 Indicator_FinchinaSimpleHKNon] | | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 217,147 | 262,804 | 286,300 | 307,609 | | 同比增速(%) | 18.8% | 21.0% | 8.9% | 7.4% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 6,647 | 8,477 | 9,871 | 10,549 | | 同比增速(%) | 7.2% | 27.5% | 16.4% | 6.9% | | Non-GAAP 净利润(百万元) | 7,711 | 9,612 | 11,055 | 11,759 | | 同比增速(%) | -2.6% | 24.7% | 15.0% | 6.4% | | ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 兔宝宝（002043）2025 年业绩快报点评 推荐（维持） 营收微降，看好乡镇渠道兑现+定制业务盈利 修复 公司发布 2025 年业绩快报：2025 年公司实现营收 88.87 亿元，同比减少 3.29%； 归母净利润 7.22 亿元，同比增加 23.29%；扣非归母净利润 3.92 亿元，同比减 少 20.06%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 9,189 | 8,887 | 9,697 | 10,628 | | 同比增速(%) | 1.4% | -3.3% | 9.1% | 9.6% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 585 | 722 | 783 | 895 | | 同比增速(%) | -15.1% | 23.4% | 8.4% | 14.3% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.71 | 0.87 | 0.94 | 1.08 | | 市盈率(倍) | 22 | 18 | 17 | 1 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 30-10y 利差会到多少？ ——债券周报 20260315 二、同业活期存款监管"打补丁"，影响几何？ 同业活期存款利率迎来监管升级，压降同业活期存款中超过 OMO 利率部分 的占比。2024 年 11 月监管仅规定同业活期存款（不含基础设施存款）加权不 超过 OMO 利率，在实务操作中，非银活期存款多采用组合搭配的销售方式， 导致部分存款定价偏高。本次监管升级，新增要求高于 7 天逆回购 OMO 政策 利率（1.4%）的同业活期存款规模季度末占比不超过 10%-20%。 对比 2024 年监管，有何不同？（1）规模影响或相对较小。2024 年非银存款 定价整改对于非银活期、定期中提支部分均有影响，彼时非银存款 28 万亿。 当前同业活期接近 17.8 万亿，假设需要压降的部分为 20-30%，对应的影响规 模在 3 至 5 万亿。（2）对于负债的改善幅度或有限。上市银行 2025 年 Q1 负 债成本较 2024 年年末下行 30bp 左右；假设目前高于 OMO 的同业活期存款利 率压降 10-40bp，按照上述 3 至 5 万亿的体量来估算，带动负债成本下行的幅 度 ...

存单周报（0309-0314）：供不应求，低位运行 对于存单而言，供不应求的格局下，短期或在接近 1.55%的区间低位波动，关 注季末资金边际变化。供给方面，上周存单发行攀升至 8000 亿元附近，但因 周度到期规模偏大，周度净融资转负，关注银行季末信贷投放情况，至月末仍 有较大的存单到期压力；需求方面，农商行仍是主要的配置机构，但息差空间 压缩后，二级市场边际买入量有所下降。监管方面，根据财联社消息，本周同 业活期自律管理进一步升级，明确超出 OMO 利率的活期存款的占比要求不超 过 10-20%，对比 2024 年年末监管政策看，本次整改仅针对超标部分的活期存 款，覆盖面更小，且利率压降幅度或有限（监管已限制非银活期加权不超过逆 回购利率），预计对负债成本的改善在 1bp 内。不过，当前存单市场处于"供 不应求"的环境中，高息活期存款的配置需求或向存单等进一步转移，进而带 动本周存单定价小幅下行。整体来看，当前流动性环境相对稳定，但结合买断 式逆回购回笼的操作，资金进一步宽松的空间有限，在不降息的预期下， 1yMLF 及资金价格（DR007）对存单形成下限约束，且不排除本月 MLF 操作 与买断式逆回购类 ...