证 券 研 究 报 告 药明合联（02268.HK）2025 年业绩点评 推荐（维持） 业绩符合预期，全球领先的 XDC CRDMO 有 望进入商业化收获期 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2025 年全年业绩，2025 年实现营收 59.44 亿元（+46.7%），毛利 21.39 亿元（+72.5%），毛利率达 36.0%（+5.4%），经调整净利润 15.59 亿元（+69.9%）， 经调整利润率达 26.2%（+3.6pct）。业绩符合预期。 评论： [主要财务指标 Indicator_FinchinaSimpleHK] | | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 5,944 | 8,043 | 10,503 | 13,716 | | 同比增速(%) | 46.7% | 35.3% | 30.6% | 30.6% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 1,481 | 2,013 | 2,639 | 3,371 | | 同比增速(%) | 38.4% | 36.0% | 31.1% | 27.7% ...

今年财政的平衡、倾斜和改革焦点 事 项 3 月 14 日，《关于 2025 年中央和地方预算执行情况与 2026 年中央和地方预算 草案的报告》（下称"预算报告"）全文公开。 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 3 月 22 日，财政部部长蓝佛安出席中国发展高层论坛 2026 年年会并发表题为 《发挥积极财政政策作用 推动"十五五"中国经济高质量发展》的演讲。 核心观点 根据预算安排，今年财政总量增幅有限（两本账广义赤字率 8.5%，去年 9%； 广义财政支出增速 1.1%，去年 3.7%），我们从三个角度挖掘增量信息： 1、预算平衡：主要靠使用沉淀资金和税收增长（一本账支出增长 4.4%，两项 拉动 3.7%），政策思路转向跨周期调节； 2、领域倾斜（财政资金同比增量明显且边际增量为正）：投资于人、科技、服 务消费和民间投资；基建资金充裕度创 2022 年来新高（项目地方承压待观察）； 3、改革焦点：提高国有资本收益收取比例（提高"进小账"比例）、消费税（调 整优化征税范围、税率）、个税（综合所得尚未纳入财产性所得和资本所得）。 主要观点 ❖ 一、预算平衡：主要靠使用沉淀资金和税收增长，政策思路转向跨周期 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 PVC 行业跟踪点评 原料成本抬升下乙烯法 PVC 不可抗力频发， 推荐（维持） 关注国内电石法 PVC 生产企业 事项： 中东局势持续发酵，全球 PVC 装置不可抗力频发。根据中塑在线塑料门户， 近期全球 PVC 行业迎不可抗力潮，国内外多家主流 PVC 生产企业相继发布不 可抗力通知，宣布暂停或降低相关装置生产负荷，据中塑在线数据统计，目前 全球已有约 5.2%的 PVC 产能处于不可抗力状态。 评论： 行业研究 基础化工 2026 年 03 月 25 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：孙维容 邮箱：sunweirong@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360526020001 联系人：徐思博 邮箱：xusibo@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 497 | 0.06 | | 总市值(亿元) | 60,929.02 | 5.00 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 54,603.21 | 5.60 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company with a target price of 40.1 yuan [2][7]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2025 reached 41.241 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.47%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 7.00% to 4.005 billion yuan [2][7]. - The report highlights that the profit from electrolytic aluminum continues to recover, but coal asset impairment has negatively impacted overall performance [7]. - The company achieved a gross profit of 9.63 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting an 18.3% year-on-year increase, despite facing significant impairment losses totaling 1.256 billion yuan [7]. - The company’s production and sales of coal and aluminum products have shown stability, with production of coal at 7.1653 million tons and sales at 7.2168 million tons, both reflecting year-on-year increases [7]. Financial Performance Summary - **2025 Financial Metrics**: - Total revenue: 41,241 million yuan - Year-on-year growth: 7.5% - Net profit: 4,005 million yuan - Year-on-year decline: -7.0% - Earnings per share: 1.78 yuan - Price-to-earnings ratio: 16 times [2][8]. - **2026-2028 Projections**: - Expected net profit for 2026: 8,055 million yuan (growth of 101.1%) - Expected net profit for 2027: 8,548 million yuan (growth of 6.1%) - Expected net profit for 2028: 9,034 million yuan (growth of 5.7%) [2][7]. Production and Sales Overview - The company achieved full production capacity for electrolytic aluminum in 2025, with production and sales balanced [7]. - Coal production was 7.1653 million tons, with sales at 7.2168 million tons, marking increases of 6% and 8% respectively [7]. - The production of carbon products and aluminum foil also saw significant year-on-year growth, with carbon products up 32% and aluminum foil up 12% [7].

Group 1: Market Positioning - The Shanghai Composite Index has returned to 3800 points after a recent geopolitical conflict-induced pullback, indicating a potential phase bottom with limited downside space[3] - Strong sectors at the beginning of the year have mostly retreated to the 3800-4000 point range, including cyclical products (non-ferrous metals, steel) and technology themes (electronics, media, military, machinery)[4] - Some real estate and consumer sectors have returned to the 3300-3600 point range, while food and personal care sectors have dropped to around 3000 points, reflecting significant declines[4] Group 2: Valuation Insights - The current PE ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index has decreased from 17.2x in early March to 16.3x, with the 20-year percentile dropping from 77% to 68%[7] - Technology manufacturing sectors remain overvalued, with communication at a PE of 53x (85th percentile), electronics at 64x (77th percentile), and machinery at 39x (76th percentile)[7] - Cyclical products have seen a significant drop in valuation, with non-ferrous metals at a PB of 3.4x (67th percentile), coal at 1.6x (54th percentile), and steel at 1.2x (47th percentile)[7] Group 3: Investment Focus - Emphasis on high dividend yield stocks for safety, with banks at 4.6%, coal at 4.4%, home appliances at 4.1%, and food and beverage at 3.8%[7] - Investment opportunities identified in sectors with low valuations and strong earnings potential, such as agriculture, cyclical products, and electronics[10] - Attention to sectors with low PB-ROE ratios and strong profitability, including food and beverage, home appliances, non-bank financials, and basic chemicals[10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Nongfu Spring (09633.HK) with a target price of HKD 57 [2][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of HKD 52.553 billion for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.5%, and a net profit of HKD 15.868 billion, up 30.9% year-on-year [2][7]. - In the second half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of HKD 26.931 billion, a 30% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of HKD 8.246 billion, reflecting a 40.2% growth [2][7]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of HKD 0.99 per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 70.2% [2][7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2025A Revenue: HKD 52.553 billion, 2026E: HKD 60.242 billion, 2027E: HKD 67.658 billion, 2028E: HKD 74.896 billion [2][11]. - 2025A Net Profit: HKD 15.868 billion, 2026E: HKD 17.636 billion, 2027E: HKD 19.856 billion, 2028E: HKD 22.320 billion [2][11]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2025A: HKD 1.41, 2026E: HKD 1.57, 2027E: HKD 1.77, 2028E: HKD 1.98 [2][11]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 2025A: 26, 2026E: 24, 2027E: 21, 2028E: 19 [2][11]. - Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: 2025A: 10.6, 2026E: 9.6, 2027E: 8.5, 2028E: 7.5 [2][11]. Market Performance - The company’s market performance shows a significant recovery in the second half of 2025, with a notable increase in market share and revenue from various product lines, including packaged water and tea beverages [7][8]. - The gross margin for the second half of 2025 reached a historical high of 60.72%, benefiting from lower raw material costs and improved product mix [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Strong Buy" based on expected revenue growth and strategic developments [5][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.76 billion RMB for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 58%, driven by significant R&D investments [2][8]. - Adjusted operating loss for 2025 was 2.37 billion RMB, widening by 880 million RMB compared to the previous year [2]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the mid-to-high-end intelligent driving market, with over 80% of its revenue coming from product solutions [8]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 5.99 billion RMB, 9.32 billion RMB, and 13.87 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 59.3%, 55.6%, and 48.9% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to improve from a loss of 3.51 billion RMB in 2026 to a profit of 628 million RMB by 2028 [4]. - The gross margin for 2025 was 64.5%, a decrease of 13 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to changes in product mix and pricing strategies [8]. Market Position - The company achieved a market penetration rate of 42.6% in China's passenger car NOA (Navigation on Autopilot) segment, significantly increasing from 21.6% [8]. - In the market for vehicles priced below 200,000 RMB, the NOA penetration rate surged from 5% at the beginning of 2025 to over 50% by the end of the year [8]. - The company holds a 14.4% market share in the overall NOA market and 44.2% in the sub-200,000 RMB segment, marking it as a leader in the low-cost NOA niche [8]. Product Development and Future Outlook - The company plans to launch a new integrated vehicle intelligence chip and operating system in April, aiming to enhance user experience and reduce costs [8]. - The upcoming HSD 2.0 is expected to drive significant growth in orders, with a target of achieving a tenfold increase in MPI (Market Penetration Index) [8]. - The company has established partnerships with 11 OEMs for over 40 export models, reinforcing its international market presence [8]. Valuation - The target price range for the stock is set between 9.27 and 11.59 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 30% to 63% from the current price of 7.12 HKD [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 30 yuan [2][7]. Core Insights - The company's meat products business is experiencing accelerated volume growth, and the high dividend yield is becoming more solid [2][7]. - For the fiscal year 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 59.274 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.105 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 2.3% year-on-year [3][7]. - The report highlights that the company's transformation in the meat products sector is yielding significant results, with a notable increase in sales volume and a strong performance in emerging channels [7]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2025: 59.274 billion yuan - 2026: 62.236 billion yuan (5.0% growth) - 2027: 64.669 billion yuan (3.9% growth) - 2028: 66.729 billion yuan (3.2% growth) [3][13] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2025: 5.105 billion yuan - 2026: 5.355 billion yuan (4.9% growth) - 2027: 5.517 billion yuan (3.0% growth) - 2028: 5.651 billion yuan (2.4% growth) [3][13] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2025: 1.47 yuan - 2026: 1.55 yuan - 2027: 1.59 yuan - 2028: 1.63 yuan [3][13] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for 2026: 18 times - Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio for 2026: 4.4 times [3][13] Business Performance - The meat products segment reported a revenue of 55.34 billion yuan in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 0.95%, but with a volume increase of 2.4% [7]. - The slaughtering business showed a revenue of 77.88 billion yuan in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 8.5%, but the operating profit increased by 9.1% [7]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 8 yuan for every 10 shares, totaling 27.72 billion yuan, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 98.42% [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the automotive industry, highlighting significant growth potential in exports and new energy vehicles [2]. Core Insights - China's automotive exports have achieved a continuous increase of over 1 million units annually for the past five years, with expectations for further growth driven by overseas market expansion and the competitive advantages of domestic brands [12]. - The report forecasts that by 2025, China's automotive exports will reach 7.06 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 21%, with exports accounting for over 20% of wholesale volume for the first time [12]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China's exports is projected to reach approximately 40% by 2025, with significant growth expected in the coming years [19]. Summary by Sections Export Overview - China has seen a consistent increase in automotive exports, with a projected 7.06 million units in 2025, up 21% year-on-year, and a wholesale export ratio exceeding 20% [12]. - The first two months of 2026 have already recorded 1.35 million units exported, a 49% increase year-on-year, with a wholesale ratio of 33% [12]. Regional Market Analysis - The report details the automotive market capacity and Chinese brand shares in various regions, including Europe, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, indicating strong growth potential in these markets [6][25]. - In Europe, the automotive market is expected to exceed 16 million units, with a new energy penetration rate projected to reach 22.7% by 2025 [39]. - Southeast Asia's automotive market is anticipated to grow significantly, with a market size of 3-3.5 million units and a new energy penetration rate nearing 15% [52]. Future Export Potential - The report estimates that by 2030, China's automotive exports could grow from 8.33 million units in 2025 to 14.26 million units, with a potential increase of nearly 6 million units [7]. - The analysis suggests that the growth in exports will be driven by increasing demand in Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America, with significant market share gains expected for Chinese brands [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as BYD, Geely, Leap Motor, and Great Wall Motors, while also suggesting to keep an eye on Changan Automobile, SAIC Motor, and Chery Automobile [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the oil shipping industry [2] Core Insights - The report discusses four scenarios regarding the impact of the Middle East conflict on the oil shipping market, highlighting potential demand fluctuations and pricing dynamics based on the conflict's duration and resolution [8][11] - The long-term outlook for the oil shipping market is optimistic, driven by a tightening supply-demand structure and significant market changes due to strategic acquisitions by major players [57][58] Summary by Sections Scenario Analysis - Scenario 1: If the conflict de-escalates quickly, the resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a short-term surge in demand, with oil-producing countries motivated to clear storage and resume production, potentially resulting in highly elastic freight rates [2][8] - Scenario 2: If the Strait remains closed for an extended period, alternative pipelines could cover 56% of the Gulf's oil export turnover, and strategic oil reserve releases could fully compensate for demand shortfalls [2][8] - Scenario 3: If the conflict persists for months, the market may experience a similar pulse in demand as in Scenario 1, with additional demand from strategic reserve replenishment once the Strait reopens [3][9] - Scenario 4: Selective passage through the Strait could create a dual-track system in the global oil transport market, affecting freight rates significantly based on operational efficiencies and market access [10][44] Medium to Long-Term Outlook - The medium-term outlook is strengthened by the consolidation of the VLCC market, with significant acquisitions by major players like Sinokor, which now controls a substantial market share [57][58] - The supply side is expected to remain tight due to aging fleets and limited new deliveries, with marginal growth rates projected at 1.4% and 4.4% for 2026 and 2027, respectively [7][11] - Long-term demand is anticipated to strengthen due to a global oil production cycle, with OPEC+ having a potential increase of 3.24 million barrels per day, which could significantly impact shipping volumes [11][57] Key Companies Overview - The report highlights two major players in the oil shipping sector: COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy Shipping, detailing their fleet sizes and operational capacities [11][57]