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炬芯科技(688049):持续深化端侧产品AI化转型,盈利规模与质量双向进阶:炬芯科技(688049):2025年业绩预告点评
Huachuang Securities· 2026-02-03 04:11
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of outperforming the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][22]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 922 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 41.44%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 204 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 91.40% [1][3]. - The company is focusing on the AI transformation of its edge products, leading to significant improvements in both profitability and quality. The net profit margin is anticipated to reach 22.13%, an increase of 5.78 percentage points year-over-year [1][7]. - The product matrix is expanding with dual drivers of edge AI and wireless audio, resulting in substantial sales growth in various markets, including wireless microphones and Bluetooth speakers [1][7]. - The company is investing heavily in R&D to enhance its high-end product iterations and is advancing its in-memory computing technology to empower new smart wearable products [1][7]. - The target price for the company is set at 85.96 yuan, based on a 52x price-to-earnings ratio for 2026, reflecting a strong market position and growth potential [3][7]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the company forecasts total revenue of 922 million yuan, with a net profit of 204 million yuan and a diluted earnings per share of 1.17 yuan [3][8]. - The projected growth rates for total revenue and net profit for 2025 are 41.5% and 91.7%, respectively, with further growth expected in subsequent years [3][8]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 9.17 billion yuan, with a current share price of 52.35 yuan [4][3].
资产配置快评:金银巨震,大类资产风波又起——总量创辩第121期
Huachuang Securities· 2026-02-03 03:52
Economic Structure Insights - The "golden crossover" of new and old economies indicates that by 2025, the new economy's GDP share will rise to 20%, surpassing the old economy's 19.7%[11] - By 2026, residents' financial assets are expected to exceed the total value of urban residential properties for the first time, indicating a shift in wealth structure[12] Spending Intentions - Combined spending intentions of residents, government, and overseas sectors are projected to stabilize in 2024 and show a first increase in 2025, driven by strong export performance and increased fiscal counter-cyclical adjustments[13] Market Dynamics - Recent market volatility is attributed to sharp fluctuations in gold and silver prices, with A-share indices experiencing a significant drop of 0.96% on January 30, 2026, primarily due to external factors[15] - The probability of a significant market pullback post-volatility is considered low, as domestic economic recovery is ongoing and supportive policies remain in place[16] Debt Market Outlook - The bond market is experiencing a correction of pessimistic expectations, with a notable recovery in the long-end segment, driven by improved risk appetite and stable funding conditions[20] - The issuance pace of local government bonds is slower than expected, alleviating supply pressure in the bond market[21] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% in January 2026, signaling a shift to a "wait-and-see" approach regarding future rate cuts[25] - The Fed's recent statements reflect a more positive outlook on economic growth, with a focus on normalizing monetary policy rather than further rate cuts in the near term[26]
天赐材料:跟踪分析报告业绩拐点已至,持续布局固态电池新材料-20260203
Huachuang Securities· 2026-02-03 03:50
证 券 研 究 报 告 业绩拐点已至,持续布局固态电池新材料 目标价:59.74 元 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 12,518 | 18,050 | 33,940 | 39,630 | | 同比增速(%) | -18.7% | 44.2% | 88.0% | 16.8% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 484 | 1,403 | 8,100 | 8,523 | | 同比增速(%) | -74.4% | 189.9% | 477.4% | 5.2% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.24 | 0.69 | 3.98 | 4.19 | | 市盈率(倍) | 171 | 59 | 10 | 10 | | 市净率(倍) | 6.3 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 资料来源:公司公告,华创证券预测 注:股价为 2026 年 2 月 2 日收盘价 公司研究 锂电化学品 2026 年 02 月 03 日 天赐材料(00270 ...
天赐材料(002709):跟踪分析报告:业绩拐点已至,持续布局固态电池新材料
Huachuang Securities· 2026-02-03 01:13
证 券 研 究 报 告 业绩拐点已至,持续布局固态电池新材料 目标价:59.74 元 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 证券分析师:张一弛 邮箱:zhangyichi@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360525080005 证券分析师:何家金 邮箱:hejiajin@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360523010001 证券分析师:程嘉琳 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 12,518 | 18,050 | 33,940 | 39,630 | | 同比增速(%) | -18.7% | 44.2% | 88.0% | 16.8% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 484 | 1,403 | 8,100 | 8,523 | | 同比增速(%) | -74.4% | 189.9% | 477.4% | 5.2% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.24 | 0.69 | 3.98 | 4.19 | | 市盈率(倍) | 171 | 59 | 10 | 10 ...
平安再度增持国寿H,全年行业保费6.12亿元:保险行业周报(20260126-20260130)-20260202
Huachuang Securities· 2026-02-02 14:12
证 券 研 究 报 告 保险行业周报(20260126-20260130) 推荐(维持) 平安再度增持国寿 H,全年行业保费 6.12 亿元 本周行情复盘:保险指数上升 5.55%,跑赢大盘 5.47pct。保险个股表现分化, 太平+9.96%,友邦+8.79%,国寿+8.73%,太保+8.48%,新华+8.40%,平安 +4.46%,阳光+3.67%,人保+2.91%,财险+2.27%,众安-1.54%。十年期国债 到期收益率 1.81%,较上周末-2bps。 本周动态: (1)每经网:香港联交所披露,平安人寿于 1月 22日在场内以每股均价32.0553 港元,增持中国人寿 1189.1 万股 H 股,涉资约 3.81 亿港元。增持后最新持股 数目为 6.81 亿股,持股比例由 8.98%上升至 9.14%。 (2)智通财经:香港联交所披露,1 月 20 日,阳光人寿减持徽商银行 H 股 1169.4 万股,平均每股作价 3.2896 港元,涉及资金 3846.86 万港元。减持后最 新持股数目为 2.41 亿股,持股比例由 7.92%下降至 6.93%。 (3)证券日报:近日中国人寿接连发布两则公告,宣 ...
轻工纺服行业周报(20260126-20260201):泳池机器人行业梳理:水下蓝海百舸争流,池间智造万虑皆清
Huachuang Securities· 2026-02-02 13:30
行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 轻工纺服行业周报(20260126-20260201) 泳池机器人行业梳理:水下蓝海百舸争流, 推荐(维持) 池间智造万虑皆清 周专题:泳池机器人行业梳理 行业规模:供给创造需求,全球泳池清洁支出超百亿美元,无缆泳池机器 人渗透率持续提升。全球泳池数量持续扩容,2024 年全球泳池总数约 3290 万 个,对应泳池清洁开支约 129 亿美元。对比人工清洁,泳池机器人具有成本和 效率优势,市场迎来快速扩容,全球出货量从 2019 年的 250 万台提升到 2024 年的 450 万台,对应 CAGR 为 12.0%。其中,无缆产品可解决线缆打结和覆 盖面积等难点,渗透率从 2019 年的 4.0%提升至 2024 年的 44.5%。 行业格局:份额集中,望圆科技是全球第三、中国第一的泳池机器人龙头 企业。全球泳池机器人市场整体呈现出明显的"双超多强"格局,2024 年以色 列巨头 Maytronics 与西班牙老牌 Fluidra 分别占市场份额的 34.8%/18.5%。而 望圆科技在无缆泳池机器人赛道份额领先,占市场份额约 19.7%。 望圆科技:深耕泳池机器人赛道,OBM ...
深度学习因子1月超额0.98%,本周热度变化最大行业为有石油石化、有色金属:市场情绪监控周报(20260126-20260130)
Huachuang Securities· 2026-02-02 13:25
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the deep learning factor tracking has shown a cumulative absolute return of 74.91% since its inception, with a relative excess return of 38.96% compared to the benchmark [10] - The sentiment factor tracking indicates that the top five industries with positive sentiment changes are petroleum and petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, food and beverage, coal, and textiles and apparel [34] - The market valuation tracking shows that the rolling 5-year historical percentiles for major indices are at 91% for CSI 300, 100% for CSI 500, and 100% for CSI 1000, indicating high valuation levels [44] Summary by Sections Deep Learning Factor Tracking - A long-only portfolio was constructed based on the DecompGRU model, with a cumulative absolute return of 74.91% and a maximum drawdown of 10.08% since March 31, 2025 [10] - An ETF rotation portfolio was also created, achieving a cumulative absolute return of 40.08% since March 18, 2025, with a maximum drawdown of 7.82% [13] Sentiment Factor Tracking - The report tracks sentiment across broad indices, with the CSI 300 showing the highest increase in sentiment by 11.05% compared to the previous week [3] - The top five industries with positive sentiment changes include petroleum and petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, food and beverage, coal, and textiles and apparel [34] Market Valuation Monitoring - The report indicates that several primary industries are currently above the 80% historical percentile for valuations, including electronics, power equipment, light industry manufacturing, and construction materials [46] - Conversely, industries like food and beverage and non-bank financials are below the 20% historical percentile, suggesting potential undervaluation [46] Event Tracking - The report details various corporate events, including stock incentive plans, significant shareholder buybacks, and analyst coverage updates, which may influence market sentiment and stock performance [48][56][57]
中际旭创:2025年业绩预告点评业绩符合预期,1.6T有望快速放量-20260202
Huachuang Securities· 2026-02-02 13:25
证 券 研 究 报 告 中际旭创(300308)2025 年业绩预告点评 强推(维持) 业绩符合预期,1.6T 有望快速放量 当前价:649.00 元 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 23,862 | 38,337 | 90,981 | 145,304 | | 同比增速(%) | 122.6% | 60.7% | 137.3% | 59.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 5,171 | 10,889 | 28,081 | 47,186 | | 同比增速(%) | 137.9% | 110.6% | 157.9% | 68.0% | | 每股盈利(元) | 4.65 | 9.80 | 25.27 | 42.47 | | 市盈率(倍) | 139 | 66 | 26 | 15 | | 市净率(倍) | 37.7 | 24.6 | 12.8 | 7.2 | 资料来源:公司公告,华创证券预测 注:股价为 2026 年 1 月 ...
流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报:近一月宽基ETF累计净流出超万亿-20260202
Huachuang Securities· 2026-02-02 13:06
Liquidity - The issuance of equity mutual funds reached 327.9 billion units, with actively managed funds at 231.2 billion units, marking a new high since 2022[6] - Margin financing net outflow was approximately -71 billion, placing it in the 23rd percentile over the past three years[13] - Stock ETFs experienced a net outflow of -3168.2 billion, which is in the 1st percentile over the past three years[22] Market Trends - The total net outflow of broad-based ETFs exceeded 1 trillion, with significant outflows from the CSI 300 (-581.8 billion), CSI 1000 (-130.3 billion), and Shanghai Composite (-984 billion)[22] - The stock market showed high volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping over 2% on January 30, leading to increased search interest in A-shares on social media[67] Investor Sentiment - Retail investors saw a net inflow of 216.8 billion in A-shares, an increase of 969.7 billion from the previous value, placing it in the 95.6th percentile over the past five years[2] - The trend of public funds clustering has weakened, shifting towards growth and consumer sectors[2] Sector Performance - The trading heat for the photovoltaic sector increased by 25 percentage points to 79%, while the consumer electronics sector decreased by 9 percentage points to 59%[45] - The demand for equity financing expanded to 159 billion, ranking in the 69th percentile over the past three years, while the net reduction in industrial capital decreased to -81.8 billion, ranking in the 74th percentile[27][30]
深度学习因子1月超额0.98%,本周热度变化最大行业为有石油石化、有色金属:市场情绪监控周报(20260126-20260130)-20260202
Huachuang Securities· 2026-02-02 11:31
- The DecompGRU model was used to construct a weekly long-only stock selection portfolio, holding the top 200 stocks with the highest integrated scores equally weighted The portfolio is rebalanced weekly based on the updated factor values from the previous Friday's closing prices Stocks with price limits or suspension are excluded, and transaction costs are not considered The benchmark is the CSI All Share Equal Weight Index[8][10] - The DecompGRU model's individual stock scores were aggregated to construct an ETF rotation portfolio The ETF pool is limited to industry and thematic ETFs, retaining only the ETF with the highest average daily trading volume over the past five days if multiple ETFs track the same index The portfolio is rebalanced weekly, holding 2-6 ETFs per period, with a benchmark of the Wind Thematic ETF Index[11][13] - A sentiment factor was constructed using user behavior data from Tonghuashun, aggregating stock-level heat indicators (browsing, watchlist, and click counts) normalized as a percentage of the total market and scaled by 10,000 This aggregated heat indicator serves as a proxy for "sentiment heat" at the broad-based index, industry, and concept levels[15][19][28] - A simple rotation strategy was built based on the weekly heat change rate (MA2) of broad-based indices, buying the index with the highest heat change rate on the last trading day of each week If the "Others" group has the highest change rate, the strategy remains in cash The strategy achieved an annualized return of 8.74% since 2017, with a maximum drawdown of 23.5%[21][24] - A concept-level sentiment strategy was constructed by selecting the top 5 concepts with the highest weekly heat change rates, excluding the bottom 20% of stocks by market capitalization within each concept From each concept, the top 10 stocks by total heat were equally weighted to form the "TOP" portfolio, while the bottom 10 stocks formed the "BOTTOM" portfolio The BOTTOM portfolio achieved an annualized return of 15.71% with a maximum drawdown of 28.89%[39][41][42] - The DecompGRU TOP200 portfolio achieved a cumulative absolute return of 74.91% and an excess return of 38.96% relative to the CSI All Share Equal Weight Index since its inception on March 31, 2025 The portfolio's maximum drawdown was 10.08%, with a weekly win rate of 68.18% and a monthly win rate of 100% In January 2026, the portfolio's absolute return was 8.99%, with an excess return of 0.98%[10] - The ETF rotation portfolio achieved a cumulative absolute return of 40.08% and an excess return of 5.93% relative to the Wind Thematic ETF Index since its inception on March 18, 2025 The portfolio's maximum drawdown was 7.82%, with a weekly win rate of 64.44% and a monthly win rate of 70% In January 2026, the portfolio's absolute return was 10.98%, with an excess return of 3.37%[13][14] - The broad-based index heat momentum strategy achieved a cumulative return of 6.6% in 2026[24] - The concept-level sentiment BOTTOM portfolio achieved a cumulative return of 3.7% in 2026[42]