Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the AI wave is initiating a new cycle in intelligent manufacturing, shifting the investment focus from cyclical fluctuations to "new hard-core" assets that can define the future and support the AI trend [8][9]. - Human-shaped robots are highlighted as the ultimate embodiment of AI intelligence, expected to revolutionize labor liberation and serve as a universal platform for AI interaction with the physical world [9][10]. - The report identifies solid-state batteries as a key technology that will unlock performance ceilings for human-shaped robots and electric vehicles due to their high energy density and safety [9][10]. Group 2: Human-Shaped Robots - The human-shaped robot industry is transitioning from concept validation to commercialization, with companies that have developed product capabilities in key components likely to experience significant valuation increases [13][17]. - The investment strategy focuses on essential hardware components rather than single manufacturers due to the uncertainty in design solutions, creating unique investment opportunities [25][28]. - Key companies to watch in this sector include Xinjie Electric, Huichuan Technology, and Weichuang Electric, which are positioned to benefit from the growth in human-shaped robots [17][30]. Group 3: AI Equipment and Materials - The demand for AI-related infrastructure is surging, leading to significant growth in high-performance servers, GPUs, and advanced PCB requirements [32][36]. - The PCB specialized equipment market is expected to grow from $3.306 billion in 2020 to $4.111 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 5.60% in China [32][34]. - Key players in the equipment sector include Dazhu CNC and Chip Quik, which are well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for advanced PCB manufacturing [36][40]. Group 4: Solid-State Batteries - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating towards commercialization, with major manufacturers like CATL and Zhongxin Innovation targeting 2027 for small-scale production [9][10]. - The global solid-state battery equipment market is projected to reach ¥107.94 billion by 2030, indicating a significant capital expenditure cycle ahead [9][10]. - Companies such as Lead Intelligent and Hai Moxing are recommended for their potential to benefit from this new capital expenditure cycle [9][10]. Group 5: Controlled Nuclear Fusion - Controlled nuclear fusion is transitioning from experimental phases to industrialization, with significant advancements in research and increased capital investment driving the industry forward [9][10]. - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in nuclear fusion projects, such as Hangyang Co. and Shanghai Electric, which are positioned to gain from this emerging sector [9][10]. - The demand for energy solutions is expected to grow, making nuclear fusion a critical area for investment as it promises to provide sustainable energy sources [9][10]. Group 6: Engineering Machinery - The domestic engineering machinery market is recovering, with excavator sales showing a positive trend, while overseas demand is also increasing due to factors like housing construction and manufacturing sector recovery [6][9]. - Major projects in China, such as the Yaxi Water Conservancy Project and the Xinjiang-Tibet Railway, are expected to boost domestic machinery demand [6][9]. - Key companies in this sector include Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Zoomlion, which are anticipated to benefit from both domestic recovery and international expansion [6][9].

Core Insights - The report highlights that the home appliance sector has significant investment opportunities in 2026, driven by external sales growth and business expansion despite domestic sales pressures [2][12][27] - The home appliance index has increased by 10% year-to-date as of November 24, 2025, indicating a positive market sentiment [7][12] - The report identifies seven key investment themes for the home appliance industry, focusing on government subsidy impacts, external sales opportunities, and technological advancements in product offerings [12][27] Investment Themes - **Theme 1: Impact of National Subsidy Policies** The report notes that the "old-for-new" policy has been enhanced, leading to significant sales boosts. As of September 30, 2025, over 76 million consumers purchased more than 126 million appliances under this policy, potentially generating sales of approximately 430 billion yuan [12][27][30] - **Theme 2: Growth Opportunities in External Sales** Emerging markets show low penetration rates for air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines, suggesting substantial growth potential. If these markets reach China's average ownership levels, demand could increase by 2.3 times for air conditioners [12][27][33] - **Theme 3: Mini LED and Large Size Penetration** The trend towards Mini LED technology and larger screen sizes is expected to enhance the market share of Chinese black appliance brands. The upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup is anticipated to boost global TV sales, benefiting Chinese brands like TCL and Hisense [12][27][33] - **Theme 4: Electric Bicycle Market Dynamics** The new national standards for electric bicycles are expected to consolidate the market, favoring leading companies. The standards will enhance product quality and profitability, despite short-term inventory pressures [12][27][33] - **Theme 5: Rise of Wet Cleaning Products** The report indicates that the wet cleaning product segment is gaining traction, with market share for leading brands like Ecovacs increasing significantly. However, growth may face challenges due to high base effects from previous subsidies [12][27][33] - **Theme 6: Diversification of Business Operations** Home appliance companies are expanding their business lines, with firms like Midea and Anker exploring new growth avenues through innovative products and services [12][27][33] - **Theme 7: High Dividend Yield Assets** The report emphasizes the strong dividend-paying capabilities of leading home appliance companies, which are expected to enhance shareholder returns as cash flows improve [12][27][33] Company Performance and Valuation - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies in the sector, highlighting strong cash flow and dividend potential for leaders like Midea, Haier, and Gree [9][10][12] - The home appliance sector's overall market capitalization is reported at approximately 20,256.05 billion yuan, with a circulation market value of 18,086.47 billion yuan [4][12]

Core Insights - The report highlights three core trends in the consumer services industry: "New Recovery, New Ecology, and New Supply" [6] - Structural factors are aiding certain sectors in stabilizing and improving operations, indicating a gradual recovery from the bottom [7] - The integration of online platforms with offline operations is reshaping the industry ecosystem, enhancing competition and operational efficiency [8] Industry Overview - The consumer services sector has seen a slight revenue increase of 2.57% year-on-year, totaling 183.23 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, despite a 12.7% decline in net profit [20][22] - The sector's performance has been mixed, with tourism and education sectors showing significant growth, while the hotel and restaurant sectors faced slight declines [16][19] New Recovery - The hotel industry is experiencing a rebound due to increased tourism demand and a stabilization in average daily rates (ADR), with occupancy rates showing signs of improvement [31][57] - The Macau gaming market has shown strong recovery, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) reaching 24.086 billion MOP in October 2025, driven by non-gaming attractions [32][44] - The duty-free market is benefiting from policy optimizations, with sales in Hainan reaching 2.425 billion yuan in October 2025, reflecting a 34.86% year-on-year increase [32][38] New Ecology - Major players like Alibaba, Meituan, and JD.com are competing in the instant retail space, each leveraging their strengths to enhance online and offline integration [42] - The restaurant industry is witnessing a shift towards standardized and professional supply chains, with the chain restaurant rate increasing from 15% in 2020 to 23% in 2024 [46][48] New Supply - The tourism sector is transitioning from a "sightseeing + ticket" model to one focused on content innovation and immersive experiences, with companies like Sanxia Tourism and Haichang Ocean Park leading this change [50][53] - The sports industry is evolving to combine spectator and participatory sports, creating new social engagement opportunities through digital platforms [54] Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include focusing on leading hotel chains like Jinjiang Hotels and ShouLai Hotels, and monitoring companies with strong supply chain advantages in the restaurant sector [6][8] - The report suggests that innovative companies in tourism, sports, and education sectors, particularly those utilizing AI and content innovation, are worth attention for potential growth [8][50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, highlighting that multiple factors are driving the rise in bank stocks, while real estate risks are deemed manageable [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the balance between supply and demand is crucial for economic recovery, with recent policies aimed at boosting consumer demand expected to enhance this balance [2]. - The M1 growth rate peaked and has started to decline, indicating a shift in deposit flows towards non-bank deposits due to a buoyant capital market [2]. - The exposure to real estate risks is decreasing, with a notable reduction in the balance of real estate development loans, suggesting that banks are adopting a more cautious approach [2][7]. - The report notes that the non-performing loan ratio for real estate has decreased, indicating improved risk management within the banking sector [7]. Monthly Market Performance - In November 2025, the banking sector saw a cumulative increase of 2.99%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.4 percentage points, ranking second among 31 sectors [11]. - The report indicates that institutional investors have increased their holdings in bank stocks, driven by a stable fundamental outlook and expectations of valuation recovery [11]. - The valuation of state-owned banks has shown significant improvement, with the price-to-book (PB) ratio rising from approximately 0.76X at the beginning of the month to 0.78X by the end [13]. Banking Sector Fundamentals - The report tracks monthly data indicating that the banking sector's core revenue-generating capacity has strengthened, with asset quality remaining stable [8]. - The report highlights that the banking sector's current valuation is at a historically low level, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.53 and a PB ratio of 0.56 [11]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a diversified investment strategy focusing on banks with high dividend yields and strong asset quality, particularly smaller banks with solid provisioning coverage [7]. - It also recommends attention to low-valuation joint-stock banks with potential for return on equity (ROE) improvement, such as CITIC Bank and Industrial Bank [7]. - The report indicates that banks with robust customer bases and excellent risk control are likely to have greater valuation elasticity in the context of economic structural transformation [7].

Investment Rating - The report gives Hangzhou Bank a "Recommended" rating, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [3][29]. Core Views - Hangzhou Bank is positioned as a high-growth and low-risk city commercial bank in Zhejiang, with a target price of 22.23 yuan based on a projected 2026E PB of 1.05X [3][12]. - The bank is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15% in earnings over the next three years, with revenue growth rates projected at 2.1%, 10.9%, and 10.9% for 2025-2027, and net profit growth rates at 13.4%, 14.2%, and 16.0% respectively [3][12]. Financial Performance - For 2024, total revenue is projected to be 38,381 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.61%. By 2026, revenue is expected to reach 43,449 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 10.86% [4][15]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 16,983 million yuan in 2024, growing to 21,997 million yuan by 2026, with respective growth rates of 18.07% and 14.22% [4][15]. Business Model and Strategy - Hangzhou Bank has a clear geographical advantage, with over 70% of its branches and credit resources located in Zhejiang, a region characterized by a vibrant private economy and high wealth levels [8][9]. - The bank's business model is driven by three main segments: corporate banking, retail banking, and small and micro enterprises, with a focus on low-risk municipal projects and a strong emphasis on wealth management and consumer credit in retail banking [8][10]. Asset Quality - The bank maintains a strong asset quality, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.76%, which has remained stable for 11 consecutive quarters, positioning it among the top tier of listed banks [10][11]. - The provision coverage ratio stands at 514%, indicating robust risk mitigation capabilities [10][11]. Capital Position - The successful redemption of 150 billion yuan in convertible bonds has strengthened the bank's core Tier 1 capital by 106.4 billion yuan, with the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio reaching 9.64% as of Q3 2025 [11][12]. - The bank's dividend payout ratio is expected to increase gradually, with projections of 23.5%, 24%, and 25% for 2025-2027 [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the oil tanker sector, indicating a favorable outlook for 2026 [1][2]. Core Insights - VLCC freight rates have continued to rise, reaching a peak of $126,000 per day on November 21, 2025, and slightly decreasing to $122,000 per day by November 28, 2025 [1][11]. - The report anticipates sustained demand for oil transportation due to global crude oil production increases and ongoing sanctions affecting non-compliant oil trade [2][22]. - The supply-side dynamics remain stable, with stricter environmental policies countering the limited new ship deliveries [25][26]. Industry Data Tracking - In the aviation sector, domestic passenger volume increased by 5.7% year-on-year, with an average ticket price rise of 3.0% [8][27]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 12.5% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in shipping rates [43][47]. - The report notes a slight decline in the transportation sector, with a 0.5% drop in the transportation index, underperforming against the CSI 300 index by 2.1 percentage points [62][63]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong earnings elasticity and dividend value, particularly in the oil and air transport sectors [3][4]. - Specific recommendations include COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and China Merchants Jinling Shipyard, highlighting their potential for growth in the current market environment [26][22].

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】海外周报第 116 期 美国初请失业金人数好于预期 主要观点 本周海外重要经济数据和事件回顾 美国：9 月零售销售和 11 月咨商局消费者信心指数低于预期。1）经济方面， 9 月耐用品订单环比初值 0.5%，预期 0.5%，前值从 2.9%上修至 3%。2）消费 方面，9 月零售销售环比 0.2%，预期 0.4%，前值 0.6%。11 月咨商局消费者信 心指数 88.7，预期 93.3，前值从 94.6 上修至 95.5。3）通胀方面，9 月 PPI 环 比 0.3%，预期 0.3%，前值-0.1%，同比 2.7%，预期 2.6%，前值从 2.6%上修至 2.7%。 欧元区：消费方面，11 月消费者信心指数-14.2，预期-14，前值-14.2。 日本：10 月工业产值好于预期、失业率略高于预期，11 月东京 CPI 基本符合 预期。1）经济方面，10 月工业产值环比初值 1.4%，预期-0.6%，前值 2.6%。 2）就业方面，10 月失业率 2.6%，预期 2.5%，前值 2.6%，求人倍率 1.18，预 期 1.2，前值 1.2。3）通胀方面，11 月东 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Dongpeng Beverage, with a target price of 340 CNY [2][6]. Core Views - Dongpeng Beverage has received approval for its H-share issuance, which is expected to alleviate market concerns and enhance its competitive position through strategic investments in overseas capacity, supply chain upgrades, and brand building [2][6]. - The company is projected to maintain high-quality growth in the short term, with a focus on scaling operations and improving profitability through digitalization and cost efficiency [6][7]. - The strategic restructuring into five major regions aims to enhance operational flexibility and drive sales growth, positioning Dongpeng as a leader in the functional beverage sector [6][7]. Company Overview - Total shares outstanding: 52,001.30 million - Total market capitalization: 137.11 billion CNY - Asset-liability ratio: 63.24% - Net asset per share: 16.92 CNY - 12-month price range: 336.50 CNY (high) / 209.99 CNY (low) [3][6]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecast for 2024: 15,839 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 40.6% - Net profit forecast for 2024: 3,326 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 63.1% - Projected earnings per share for 2024: 6.40 CNY [7][8]. Strategic Focus - The company aims to leverage high-demand functional beverages and enhance its market presence through effective distribution and marketing strategies [6][7]. - The focus on digital transformation is expected to yield significant operational efficiencies and contribute positively to profit margins [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the oral FXIa inhibitor asundexian, particularly following its successful Phase III trial results for preventing recurrent strokes [21][25]. Core Insights - The oral FXIa inhibitor asundexian has shown significant efficacy in reducing the risk of ischemic stroke in patients with non-cardioembolic ischemic stroke or high-risk transient ischemic attack, achieving its primary efficacy and safety endpoints in the OCEANIC-STROKE study [21][25]. - The report highlights the potential of FXI inhibitors to provide safer anticoagulation options with lower bleeding risks compared to traditional anticoagulants [9][10]. - The report discusses the diverse potential indications for FXI/XIa inhibitors, including prevention of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in orthopedic surgeries, stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation patients, and treatment of cancer-associated VTE [13][10]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Focus on Innovative Drugs - The report reviews the recent advancements in innovative drugs, particularly in the anticoagulant space, emphasizing the role of FXI inhibitors [4][5]. Section 2: Mechanism of Action - FXIa plays a crucial role in pathological thrombus formation while having a limited role in hemostasis, making it an ideal target for developing safer anticoagulants [9][10]. Section 3: Clinical Development Progress - Asundexian has successfully completed Phase III trials, while other FXIa inhibitors like milvexian have faced challenges, including trial terminations due to efficacy concerns [30][33]. - The report details the ongoing clinical trials for various FXI inhibitors, including those by companies like Bayer, BMS, and Regeneron, highlighting their respective stages of development and potential applications [20][39][45]. Section 4: Market Potential - The report underscores the significant market potential for FXI inhibitors, given the high incidence of stroke and VTE, with approximately 12 million people affected by stroke annually worldwide [25][21].

- The report discusses multiple quantitative models for A-share and Hong Kong stock markets, including short-term, medium-term, and long-term models. These models are constructed based on price-volume, momentum, acceleration, and trend perspectives, among others. The report emphasizes the importance of combining signals from different models and periods to achieve a balanced strategy[9][12][13] - For A-shares, the short-term models include the "Volume Model" (neutral for all broad-based indices), "Feature Institutional Model" (bearish), "Feature Volume Model" (bearish), and "Smart Algorithm Models" (neutral for CSI 300, bullish for CSI 500)[12][71] - Medium-term A-share models include the "Limit-Up and Limit-Down Model" (neutral), "Up-Down Return Difference Model" (bullish for all broad-based indices), and "Calendar Effect Model" (neutral)[13][72] - The long-term A-share model, "Long-Term Momentum Model," is bullish[14][73] - Comprehensive A-share models, such as "A-Share Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model" and "A-Share Comprehensive Guozheng 2000 Model," are bearish[15][74] - For Hong Kong stocks, the medium-term models include the "Turnover to Volatility Model" (bearish) and "Hang Seng Index Up-Down Return Difference Model" (neutral)[16][74] - The report highlights that the quantitative models are designed to provide market timing signals and are based on historical data, emphasizing simplicity and universality in their construction[9][12] - The backtesting results for the "Double Bottom Pattern" and "Cup and Handle Pattern" show that the double bottom pattern outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.93% this week, while the cup and handle pattern outperformed by 2.5%[44][50] - The cumulative performance of the double bottom pattern since December 31, 2020, is 13.99%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.02%. However, the cup and handle pattern underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by -1.14% over the same period[44][50]