公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 芯源微（688037）2025 年半年报点评 强推（维持） 收入保持稳健，化学清洗&临时键合机放量 目标价：150.2 元 事项： 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 1,754 | 2,046 | 2,748 | 3,598 | | 同比增速(%) | 2.1% | 16.7% | 34.3% | 30.9% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 203 | 245 | 419 | 603 | | 同比增速(%) | -19.1% | 21.0% | 70.6% | 44.0% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.01 | 1.22 | 2.08 | 2.99 | | 市盈率(倍) | 123 | 102 | 60 | 41 | | 市净率(倍) | 9.3 | 8.8 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 9 月 1 日收盘价 半导体设备 ...

推荐（维持） 证 券 研 究 报 告 光伏行业 2025 年半年报总结 行业基本面筑底，盈利修复可期 行业研究 太阳能 2025 年 09 月 02 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：张一弛 邮箱：zhangyichi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080005 证券分析师：盛炜 邮箱：shengwei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522100003 证券分析师：蒋雨凯 邮箱：jiangyukai@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080003 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 37 | 0.00 | | 总市值(亿元) | 10,722.06 | 0.91 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 9,712.02 | 1.03 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 13.4% | 10.8% | 21.4% | | 相对表现 | 1.8% | -5.5% | -14.8% | -8% 10% 27% 45% 24/09 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for BYD, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][17]. Core Views - The report highlights that BYD's gross margin is under pressure, primarily due to amortization and price competition, but anticipates growth driven by smart technology and international expansion [2][7]. - The target price for BYD is set at 130.6 CNY and 142.7 HKD, reflecting a valuation adjustment based on the company's current product cycle and financial performance [2][7]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected total revenue for 2024A is 777.1 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 29.0%. By 2027E, revenue is expected to reach 1,237.6 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 14.4% [3][8]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 40.3 billion CNY in 2024A, growing to 63.2 billion CNY by 2027E, with a growth rate of 23.0% in 2027E [3][8]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to increase from 4.42 CNY in 2024A to 6.94 CNY in 2027E [3][8]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 25 in 2024A to 16 in 2027E, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decline from 5.4 to 2.9 over the same period [3][8]. Market Performance - BYD's revenue for Q2 was reported at 201.9 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 14% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18% [7]. - The gross margin for Q2 was 16.3%, down 2.4 percentage points year-on-year and 3.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating significant pressure from competitive pricing [7]. Strategic Outlook - The report suggests that BYD's competitive advantages, including scale, vertical integration, and sales structure, will support a recovery in profitability [7]. - The anticipated improvement in Q3 is expected to come from product mix adjustments and cost control measures, with a focus on high-end products and international markets [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][8]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 299.6 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.02 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.2% year-on-year [2][8]. - The second quarter of 2025 showed a robust performance with sales reaching 1.11 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 12% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17% [8]. - The company is optimistic about the upcoming launch of the 尚界 H5 model, which has already received a positive market response with over 50,000 pre-orders within 18 hours of its announcement [8]. - The company is undergoing a transformation with a focus on both fuel and new energy vehicles, aiming to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs [8]. Financial Summary - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted upwards to 665.1 billion yuan, 761.0 billion yuan, and 818.5 billion yuan respectively [8]. - The net profit forecast for the same period has also been revised to 14.3 billion yuan, 17.3 billion yuan, and 20.0 billion yuan respectively, indicating significant growth potential [8]. - The company is expected to achieve a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.4 times in 2025, with a target price set at 24.84 yuan, representing a potential upside of 30% [8].

证 券 研 究 报 告 北方华创（002371）2025 年半年报点评 强推（维持） 业绩保持稳健增长，产品平台化进程顺利 事项： 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 29,838 | 39,509 | 50,146 | 60,221 | | 同比增速(%) | 35.1% | 32.4% | 26.9% | 20.1% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 5,621 | 7,349 | 9,613 | 12,108 | | 同比增速(%) | 44.2% | 30.7% | 30.8% | 26.0% | | 每股盈利(元) | 7.79 | 10.18 | 13.32 | 16.78 | | 市盈率(倍) | 49 | 37 | 28 | 23 | | 市净率(倍) | 8.8 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 9 月 1 日收盘价 公司研究 半导体设 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Qingdao Port (601298) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a year-on-year revenue growth of 7.6% in H1 2025, driven by strong performance in the container segment, reinforcing the "Strong Buy" rating [1] - The container business is highlighted as a key growth engine, with a significant increase in throughput and revenue [6] - The report projects steady revenue growth for the upcoming years, with expected revenues of 19,585 million in 2025, 20,444 million in 2026, and 21,377 million in 2027 [2] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: - Total revenue for H1 2025 was 94.34 billion, a 4.04% increase year-on-year, with net profit reaching 28.42 billion, up 7.58% [6] - The company’s gross margin improved to 39.32%, an increase of 2.08 percentage points year-on-year [6] - **Segment Performance**: - Container throughput reached 17.03 million TEU, a 7.6% increase year-on-year, with container segment revenue soaring by 87.1% [6] - Liquid bulk cargo faced challenges with a 10.1% decline in throughput, while dry bulk cargo remained stable [6] - **Earnings Forecast**: - The report maintains profit forecasts of 54.9 billion, 58.4 billion, and 62 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.85, 0.90, and 0.96 [6] Valuation and Target Price - The target price is set at 12.0 yuan, representing a 39% upside from the current price of 8.67 yuan, based on a projected price-to-book ratio of 1.7 times the expected net asset value per share [2][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][19]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 19.36 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -770 million yuan, down 10.7 billion yuan year-on-year [2][4]. - Despite the pressure on Q2 earnings, the report remains optimistic about the development of the "Zun Jie" brand, particularly the S800 model, which has shown strong order performance [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: The total revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted from 47.5 billion, 60 billion, and 71.5 billion yuan to 50.7 billion, 67.2 billion, and 86.7 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 20%, 33%, and 29% respectively [2][8]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 has been revised from -60 million yuan to -630 million yuan, while the 2026 and 2027 forecasts have been increased to 1.57 billion and 4.53 billion yuan respectively [2][8]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is expected to improve from -0.82 yuan in 2024 to 2.07 yuan in 2027 [4][8]. Market Performance - The company’s stock price target is set at 68.64 yuan, with a current price of 54.22 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 27% [4][8]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 118.42 billion yuan and a circulating market value of the same amount [5]. Sales and Production Insights - In Q2 2025, the company sold 91,000 vehicles, a decrease of 8.5% year-on-year, with a notable decline in passenger vehicle sales [2][8]. - The "Zun Jie" S800 model has received over 12,000 pre-orders, showcasing strong market demand and resilience [2][8]. Long-term Outlook - The report suggests that the "Zun Jie" brand could position the company as a high-return, competitive player in the luxury vehicle market, with potential net profit margins significantly higher than competitors like Porsche [2][8]. - The long-term revenue forecast for the company's self-owned business is projected at 47.4 billion yuan, while the "Zun Jie" business is expected to generate a net profit of 12.5 billion yuan by 2027 [2][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][21]. Core Insights - The company achieved steady revenue growth in H1 2025, with a revenue of 5.218 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.62%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 339 million yuan, up 20.85% year-on-year [5]. - The semiconductor market is experiencing a mild recovery, with stable demand from automotive electronics, photovoltaics, energy storage, and consumer electronics. The company is actively expanding production capacity, maintaining a high utilization rate [5]. - The company is positioned as a leader in power semiconductors in China, with advanced manufacturing and packaging technologies, and is strategically expanding into AI applications [5]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 5.218 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 25.65%, a slight decrease of 0.75 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 339 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.85% [5]. - For Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.863 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.28% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.61%. The net profit for the quarter was 256 million yuan, up 3.42% year-on-year and 207.12% quarter-on-quarter [5]. - The company’s projected net profit for 2025-2026 has been adjusted to 1.022 billion yuan and 1.341 billion yuan, respectively, with an additional forecast for 2027 at 1.596 billion yuan [6]. Growth Drivers - The company is leveraging its IDM capabilities to drive growth, focusing on high-performance products and expanding its core customer base. New product introductions are expected to support sustainable growth in market share and performance [5]. - The company is actively pursuing opportunities in AI, with plans to expand into AI mobile devices, AI PCs, and smart vehicles, while also focusing on high-performance power devices for server power supplies [5]. - The company’s modular capabilities are improving, with power module revenue increasing by 70% year-on-year, and automotive-grade IGBT modules entering mass production [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for SAF and epoxy resin, indicating a positive outlook for these materials in the chemical industry [1]. Core Insights - The new materials sector outperformed the broader market and the basic chemical sector, with the wind new materials index showing a weekly change of 2.53%, compared to 0.43% for the basic chemical index [8][9]. - The first global 6G chip has been launched, utilizing photonic technology to achieve a transmission speed of 100Gbps, which is expected to bridge the digital divide between urban and rural areas [4][11]. - The report highlights significant price increases for SAF in Europe (+11.01%) and China (+5.00%), as well as epoxy resin (+3.93%), while prices for threonine (-3.07%), lysine (-1.01%), and valine (-0.76%) saw declines [4][19]. Industry Updates - The report notes that the chemical industry is experiencing a recovery in prices due to easing trade tensions between China and the U.S., leading to a replenishment window in trade [9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic production capabilities in new materials, particularly in light of ongoing trade tensions and the need for self-sufficiency [10]. - The report suggests that the new materials sector, particularly those with high growth potential and strong technological barriers, is poised for significant investment opportunities [14]. Trading Data - The Huachuang Chemical Industry Index stands at 71.65, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.59% but a year-on-year decrease of 21.87% [15][20]. - The industry price percentile is at 17.84% over the past decade, indicating a slight increase, while the industry inventory percentile is at 80.18%, suggesting a relatively high level of inventory [15]. Subsector Tracking - In the new energy materials sector, the report mentions the pricing of the SAIC MG4 semi-solid-state battery version at 99,800 yuan [27]. - The report also highlights the expected growth in the global robotics market, projected to exceed $400 billion by 2029, with China capturing nearly half of that market share [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the photovoltaic industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [5][61]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the cost support for components has strengthened, leading to potential price negotiations in the market. Since late August, prices for silicon materials, silicon wafers, and battery cells have increased, while auxiliary materials like photovoltaic glue film and glass have also seen price hikes, providing cost support [2][12]. - The report indicates that the main material prices, such as polysilicon and silicon wafers, have shown upward trends, with polysilicon prices for dense and granular materials averaging 46.0 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 4.5% [3][11]. - The battery cell prices have varied by size, with 183N and 210N battery cells seeing price increases of approximately 0.005 CNY/W due to a relatively balanced supply-demand situation [11][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Component Cost Support and Price Negotiation - Silicon material prices have stabilized, with September production expected to be around 125,000 to 130,000 tons. The average transaction price for N-type recycled material is 47,900 CNY/ton, unchanged week-on-week, while N-type granular silicon has increased by 2.2% to 47,000 CNY/ton [11][12]. - Silicon wafer prices have slightly increased due to cost support, with a strong willingness to maintain prices amid rising upstream silicon material costs. The market atmosphere remains positive due to sustained demand from the downstream battery sector [11][12]. 2. Market Performance Review - The report notes that the overall industry index rose by 5.90% this week, with the electric equipment industry index increasing by 3.99%. The top-performing sectors included telecommunications and non-ferrous metals, while banking and coal sectors lagged [13][16]. - In the electric equipment sector, the top five companies by stock performance included Tonghe Technology (+50.29%) and Maguimi (+29.09%), while the worst performers included Rongyu Group (-10.93%) and Jinguang Co. (-26.19%) [19][23]. 3. Industry Price Trends - The report provides detailed pricing for various components, indicating that the average price for 182-183.75mm N-type silicon wafers is 1.25 CNY/piece, with a week-on-week increase of 4.2%. The prices for TOPCon battery cells also showed slight increases [3][38]. - Auxiliary materials such as photovoltaic glass and EVA films have maintained stable prices, with 3.2mm coated photovoltaic glass priced at 18.5-19.0 CNY/m² and transparent EVA film at 5.52 CNY/m² [4][44].