[Table_Page] 公告点评|传媒 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 华立科技（301011.SZ） 收入及利润均超预期，关注 IP 业务拓展 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | 盈利预测： | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Finance] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 605 | 816 | 1008 | 1154 | 1290 | | 增长率（ % ） | -3.5% | 35.0% | 23.4% | 14.6% | 11.8% | | EBITDA（百万元） | 119 | 193 | 201 | 212 | 245 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | -71 | 52 | 85 | 108 | 140 | | 增长率（ % ） | -235.6% | 173.0% | 64.5% | 26.1% | 30.3% | | EPS（元/股） | -0.49 | 0.35 | 0.58 | 0.73 | 0.96 | ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|传媒 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 传媒行业：AI 行业周报 OpenAI Tasks 新功能诞生， AI Agent 迈向新阶段 核心观点： [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [Table_Author] 分析师： 旷实 SAC 执证号：S0260517030002 SFC CE No. BNV294 010-59136610 kuangshi@gf.com.cn 分析师： 叶敏婷 SAC 执证号：S0260519110001 021-38003665 yeminting@gf.com.cn 分析师： 罗悦纯 SAC 执证号：S0260524120001 luoyuechun@gf.com.cn 请注意，叶敏婷,罗悦纯并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员 -24% -13% -2% 8% 19% 30% 01/24 03/24 06/24 08/24 10/24 01/25 传媒 沪深300 会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | 传媒行业：AI 行业周报:CES | 2025-01-10 | | --- | --- | | 2025 发布多款 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a current price of 5.68 HKD and a fair value of 6.71 HKD [7]. Core Insights - The main brand of the company is experiencing steady growth, with a healthy recovery in inventory levels. In Q4 2024, the main brand's total channel revenue is expected to grow at a high single-digit percentage year-on-year, with retail discounts improving to a level of 70-75% [7]. - The subsidiary brand, Saucony, continues to show strong growth momentum, with total channel revenue in Q4 2024 expected to increase by approximately 50%, surpassing the previous guidance of over 60% for the entire year [7]. - The company forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 to be 1.26 billion, 1.39 billion, and 1.51 billion CNY respectively, and maintains a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12 for 2025, leading to a fair value estimate of 6.71 HKD per share [7]. Financial Summary - The company's main revenue for 2023 is reported at 12,930 million CNY, with a growth rate of 29.1%. The EBITDA is projected to be 1,515 million CNY, and the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 922 million CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 1.5% [6]. - For the years 2024 to 2026, the main revenue is expected to be 14,396 million CNY, 15,077 million CNY, and 16,462 million CNY respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 0.4%, 4.7%, and 9.2% [6]. - The report indicates that the company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 11.0%, 11.6%, 13.1%, 13.5%, and 13.8% from 2022 to 2026 [6].

[Table_Title] 批零社服行业 12 月社零同比+3.7%，延续温和复苏 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | | | 证券研究报告 | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2025-01-17 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]嵇文欣 SAC 执证号：S0260520050001 SFC CE No. AOB364 -24% -12% -1% 11% 22% 34% 01/24 03/24 06/24 08/24 11/24 01/25 商贸零售 沪深300 | 021-38003653 | | --- | jiwenxin@gf.com.cn [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] | 海外高端品牌观察:2024 年全 | 2024-12-31 | | --- | --- | | 球奢侈品市场普遍承压，日 | | | 本、南欧、美国表现较好 | | | 批零社服行业:11 月社零同比 | 2024-12-16 | | +3.0%，重 ...

[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|纺织服饰 2025 年 1 月 17 日 证券研究报告 1 / 13 ⚫ 2024 年四季度业绩前瞻：上游纺织制造板块以出口业务为主，2024Q4，板块内多数公司虽然上年同期基数恢 复正常，但是下游需求稳定，接单形势保持良好，2025 年春节提前，也使得部分订单提前至 2024Q4，另外人 民币汇率变化也带来一定程度利好，因此预计业绩有望保持稳健增长。下游服装家纺板块以内销业务为主， 2024Q4，虽然暖冬对服装家纺消费构成一定扰动，但是伴随国内政策转向，消费市场略有回暖，加之部分品类 如家纺、童装受益政府补贴，板块内多数公司业绩预计较 2024Q3 有所改善，其中休闲装及童装子行业龙头公 司、专业运动及运动休闲子行业龙头公司、家纺子行业龙头公司预计业绩领跑行业。 ⚫ 2024 年四季度纺织品出口金额持续向好，服装出口金额恢复增长，2024 年四季度服装家纺社零回暖。据 wind， 2024 年纺织品出口金额（美元计）同比+5.7%，2024 年一季度、二季度、三季度、四季度分别同比+2.6%、 +3.9%、+2.1%、+14.32%；2024 年服装出口金额（美元计） ...

金融工程|定期报告 2025年1月19日 证券研究报告 | 金融工程:融资余额增加,ETF资 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金流入 | | | | | | | A 股量化择时研究报告 | | | | | | | 市场回顾(本期是指2025年1月13日—2025年1月17日) | | | | | | | 中证 结构表现 | 沪深 | 中证 | 中证 | 中证 | 国证 | | 100 (涨幅) | 300 | 500 | 800 | 1000 | 2000 | | 1.67% | 2.14% | 4.06% | 2.62% | 5.35% | 5.46% | | 强度前五:社会服务、传媒、计算机、通信、机械设备。 行业表现 | | | | | | | 强度后五:家用电器、银行、公用事业、煤炭、食品饮料。 | | | | | | | 市场估值 | | | | | | | 分析师: | 安宁宁 | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号: S0260512020003 | | | SFC CE No. BNW179 | | | 0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of HKD 15.48 and a target value of HKD 19.11 [5]. Core Views - The company has partnered with the Chinese Olympic Committee, which is expected to enhance its brand value. It will provide official sportswear for major events from 2025 to 2028, including the Winter Olympics and Asian Games [10]. - The company is anticipated to achieve stable growth in 2025, with improvements in discount and gross margin. Despite increased marketing expenses, the net profit margin is expected to remain above 10% [10]. - The company is focusing on expanding its store network, particularly through direct sales, and is expected to launch more cost-effective products in response to consumer trends [10]. - The forecast for net profit from 2024 to 2026 is CNY 30.7 billion, CNY 30.4 billion, and CNY 33.7 billion, respectively. The report assigns a PE ratio of 15 for 2025, leading to a target value of HKD 19.11 per share [10]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from CNY 25.803 billion in 2022 to CNY 30.306 billion in 2026, with a growth rate of 14.3% in 2022, slowing to 6.0% by 2026 [4][14]. - EBITDA is expected to increase from CNY 5.162 billion in 2022 to CNY 6.906 billion in 2026, with a notable dip in 2023 [4][14]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decline from CNY 4.064 billion in 2022 to CNY 3.374 billion in 2026, reflecting a challenging market environment [4][14]. - The company's EPS is projected to decrease from CNY 1.54 in 2022 to CNY 1.31 in 2026, indicating a potential decline in profitability [4][14]. Key Financial Ratios - The report highlights a decrease in ROE from 16.7% in 2022 to 10.1% in 2025, suggesting a decline in return on equity [13]. - The net profit margin is expected to decrease from 15.7% in 2022 to 11.1% in 2026, indicating potential profitability challenges [13]. - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is projected to improve from 27.7% in 2022 to 23.8% in 2026, reflecting a strengthening balance sheet [13].

Group 1 - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] - The report highlights that recent liquidity tightening in the interbank market has led to a significant rebound in short-term funding prices, driven by factors such as increased credit issuance, government bond issuance, tax settlements, and pre-Spring Festival cash demand [7] - The report suggests that the root cause of liquidity tightening is the depreciation of the RMB, which has exceeded the short-term volatility threshold, necessitating fiscal policy to stimulate demand and ultimately narrow long-term bond spreads [7] Group 2 - The report indicates that while liquidity pressure may stabilize long-term government bond rates in the short term, it could adversely affect banks' funding costs and impact equity market liquidity expectations [7] - The analysis emphasizes that the widening of the China-US interest rate differential is a key issue affecting the exchange rate, and that addressing this requires fiscal measures to boost demand rather than solely tightening monetary policy [7] - The report anticipates that the recent interest rate fluctuations are temporary, with the central bank likely to provide more liquidity support in response to market demand [7] Group 3 - The report includes a valuation and financial analysis of key banks, all rated "Buy," with reasonable values projected for major banks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (6.68 CNY), China Construction Bank (8.46 CNY), and Agricultural Bank of China (5.10 CNY) [8] - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024 and 2025, along with price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios for various banks, indicating a positive outlook for the banking sector [8] - The report also notes that the central bank's monetary policy framework will increasingly focus on price stability, with short-term price stability being a crucial component [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 11.20 CNY and a reasonable value of 14.41 CNY [2][3]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's ongoing reforms are yielding results, leading to significant growth in annual performance. The expected net profit for 2024 is projected to be between 1.0 to 1.1 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 55.1% to 70.6% [7]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong performance trajectory, with revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at 148.7 billion CNY, 156.6 billion CNY, and 164.0 billion CNY respectively, reflecting growth rates of 4.6%, 5.3%, and 4.7% [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the company's focus on operational efficiency and cost reduction, which has contributed to improved profitability metrics, including a projected net profit margin increase [7][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million CNY) is forecasted to grow from 14,213 in 2023 to 15,657 in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.6% [5][8]. - EBITDA is expected to rise from 1,509 million CNY in 2023 to 2,729 million CNY in 2025, indicating a strong operational performance [5][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase significantly from 645 million CNY in 2023 to 1,450 million CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 37.9% [5][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from 0.23 CNY in 2023 to 0.51 CNY in 2025 [5][8]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 37.69 in 2023 to 21.77 in 2025, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [5][8]. - The report assigns a target P/E of 28 for 2025, leading to a reasonable value estimate of 14.41 CNY per share [7][8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The global demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) is expected to exceed expectations due to the increase in domestic penetration rates and the overseas new model cycle. In China, NEV sales from January to November 2024 reached 10.12 million units, a year-on-year increase of 40.3%. The forecast for 2024 includes 10.48 million passenger vehicles and 643,000 commercial vehicles sold in China, representing year-on-year growth of 33.6% and 42.6%, respectively [17][19] - The demand for power batteries is anticipated to grow at a rate higher than that of vehicle sales, with global power battery demand projected to reach 1,004 GWh in 2024, 1,316 GWh in 2025, and 1,737 GWh in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 31% [20][19] Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - In China, the "old-for-new" policy is expected to significantly boost passenger vehicle demand, with a potential consumption scale of 1.3 trillion CNY from replacing old vehicles. The policy is anticipated to stimulate demand for new energy commercial vehicles as well [20][24] - The overseas market is expected to grow, with an overall forecast of over 5.4 million units sold in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6%. The growth is driven by different policy environments and model cycles across regions [17][19] Energy Storage - The rapid development of new energy sources is creating opportunities in energy storage, with global energy storage capacity expected to reach 187 GWh in 2024, 269 GWh in 2025, and 365 GWh in 2026, representing year-on-year growth rates of 74%, 44%, and 36%, respectively [6][19] Supply Chain - The financial framework indicates that leading companies in the battery and lithium iron phosphate sectors are beginning to see improvements in return on equity (ROE). The capital expenditure has remained low since Q4 2022, but is expected to stabilize post-Q3 2024 [6][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of re-evaluating balance sheets and recommends focusing on battery and lithium iron phosphate materials, while also paying attention to leading companies in electrolyte, anode materials, copper foil, and separators [6][19]