[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|农林牧渔 证券研究报告 [TAblE_TitlE] 农林牧渔行业 如何看待生猪公司 2024 年度出栏数据 [TAblE_SummAry] 核心观点： [TAblE_G rADE] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2025-01-19 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： TAblE_Author 钱浩] SAC 执证号：S0260517080014 SFC CE No. BND274 021-38003634 shqianhao@gf.com.cn 分析师： 周舒玥 -24% -13% -2% 8% 19% 30% 01/24 03/24 06/24 08/24 11/24 01/25 农林牧渔 沪深300 | 分析师： | 周舒玥 | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523050002 | | | 021-38003537 | | | zhoushuyue@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 李雅琦 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260524080006 | | | 021-68827265 | ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|公用事业 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 公用事业行业深度跟踪 评估气温、价格与需求，寻找板块的企稳信号 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2025-01-19 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]郭鹏 SAC 执证号：S0260514030003 SFC CE No. BNX688 021-38003655 guopeng@gf.com.cn 分析师： 姜涛 SAC 执证号：S0260521070002 -4% 3% 10% 16% 23% 30% 01/24 03/24 06/24 08/24 11/24 01/25 公用事业 沪深300 | | SAC 执证号：S0260521070002 | | --- | --- | | | 021-38003624 | | | shjiangtao@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 许子怡 | | | SAC 执证号：S ...

| [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2025-01-19 | [Table_Author] 分析师： 陈福 SAC 执证号：S0260517050001 SFC CE No. BOB667 0755-82535901 chenfu@gf.com.cn 分析师： 严漪澜 SAC 执证号：S0260524070005 0755-88286912 yanyilan@gf.com.cn -10% 4% 18% 32% 46% 60% 01/24 03/24 06/24 08/24 11/24 01/25 非银金融 沪深300 请注意，严漪澜并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | [Table_DocReport] 相关研究： | | | --- | --- | | 非银金融行业:预定利率动态 | 2025-01-12 | | 调节机制出台，政策改善险 | | | 企资负表现 | | | 非银金融行业:政策优化及靠 | 2025-01-05 | | 前发力，市场情绪有望提振 | | | ...

[Table_Page] 公告点评|养殖业 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 立华股份（300761.SZ） 24 年业绩符合预期，养殖规模稳步扩张 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 盈利预测： | [Table_Finance] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 14,447 | 15,354 | 17,184 | 19,094 | 22,854 | | 增长率 （ % ） | 29.8 | 6.3 | 11.9 | 11.1 | 19.7 | | EBITDA（百万元） | 1,719 | 472 | 2,162 | 2,342 | 3,210 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 891 | -437 | 1,492 | 1,523 | 2,290 | | 增长率 （ % ） | 325.2 | -149.1 | 441.2 | 2.1 | 50.3 | | EPS（元/股） | 1.17 | -0.53 | 1.80 | 1.84 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-A/Accumulate-H" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company is expected to reduce losses in 2024, with a projected net loss of RMB 1.6 to 2.4 billion, while the demand for civil aviation continues to recover, leading to a 21% increase in passenger traffic to 155 million [8][21]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the upcoming Spring Festival travel peak and a long-term improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with profit margins expected to rise in the coming years [8][54]. - The report anticipates a significant recovery in profitability from 2025 onwards, with projected net profits of RMB 7.9 billion and RMB 17.5 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively [54]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2022A: RMB 52.898 billion - 2023A: RMB 141.1 billion - 2024E: RMB 170.453 billion - 2025E: RMB 194.403 billion - 2026E: RMB 216.65 billion - Growth Rate: 2023A to 2024E is 20.8% [2]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2022A: RMB -38.619 billion - 2023A: RMB -1.046 billion - 2024E: RMB -0.196 billion - 2025E: RMB 7.939 billion - 2026E: RMB 17.536 billion - Growth Rate: 2024E to 2025E is 4148% [2]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: -2.81 - 2023A: -0.07 - 2024E: -0.01 - 2025E: 0.45 - 2026E: 1.01 [2]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 16.95 for A-shares and 7.67 for H-shares [2]. Operational Performance - The company achieved a passenger transport volume of 155 million in 2024, a 21% increase year-on-year, with an overall seat occupancy rate of 79.8% [8][9]. - The company’s fleet size increased to 930 aircraft by the end of 2024, reflecting a growth of 2.76% [9]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a favorable supply-demand environment for the airline industry, with expectations of improved pricing power due to regulatory measures and a recovery in business travel demand [28][50]. - The average ticket price for the company is projected to decline by 15.5% in 2024 compared to 2023, but is expected to rebound in subsequent years as the market stabilizes [28][33].

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|建筑材料 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 建筑材料行业 节前稳价为主，业绩预告风险陆续释放 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 持有 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 持有 | | 报告日期 | 2025-01-19 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -24% -12% -1% 11% 22% 34% 01/24 03/24 06/24 08/24 11/24 01/25 建筑材料 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]谢璐 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260514080004 | | SFC CE No. BMB592 | | 021-38003688 | | xielu@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 张乾 | | SAC 执证号：S0260522080003 | | 021-38003687 | | gzzhangqian@gf.com.cn | | 请注意，张乾并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 | | DocReport] ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|多元金融 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 多元金融行业 小贷管理办法落地，加强行业零售化属性 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2025-01-19 | 相对市场表现 [Table_PicQuote] [分析师： Table_Author]陈福 SAC 执证号：S0260517050001 SFC CE No. BOB667 0755-82535901 chenfu@gf.com.cn -15% -2% 11% 24% 37% 50% 01/24 03/24 05/24 07/24 09/24 11/24 多元金融 沪深300 [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] | 多元金融行业:长尾信贷 AI 应 | 2025-01-15 | | --- | --- | | 用专题：海外借鉴与国内趋势 | | | 多元金融行业:支付行业专题 | 2024-08-28 | | 报告：境内及出海行业格局 | | | 多元金融行业: ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|医药生物 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 医药生物行业 Vertex JPM 会议更新：关注国内企业疼痛 和肾病领域进展 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2025-01-18 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]罗佳荣 -24% -12% -1% 11% 22% 34% 01/24 03/24 06/24 08/24 11/24 01/25 医药生物 沪深300 | SAC 执证号：S0260516090004 | | | --- | --- | | SFC CE No. BOR756 | | | 021-38003671 | | | luojiarong@gf.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 李安飞 | | SAC 执证号：S0260520100005 | | | 021-38003669 | | | lianfei@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，李安 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|保险Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 保险Ⅱ行业 12 月保费点评-25 年寿险行业景气度有望 | 保险Ⅱ行业:预定利率动态调 | 2025-01-11 | | --- | --- | | 整机制出台，降低利差损风 | | | 险 | | | 保险Ⅱ行业:11 月行业保费点 | 2024-12-27 | | 评-人身险行业转战开门红， | | | 财险保费增速小幅走扩 | | | 保险Ⅱ行业:"偿二代"过渡 | 2024-12-22 | | 期延长，缓解偿付能力压力 | | 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1 / 5 [Table_Contacts] 上市险企寿险单月保费增速分化明显，预计主因全年收官和开门红节 奏的差异。据月度保费公告数据显示，1-12 月的平安/国寿/新华/太保 寿险原保费同比增速分别为 7.6%/4.7%/2.8%/2.4%，较 1-11 月的 8.5%/4.8%/2.1%/2.2%有所分化，2024 年全年实现了较好的正增长， 其中太保和新华 12 月单月保费增速较高，分别为+8.9%、19.1%，推 动累计保费增速小幅走扩 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports, with a current price of HKD 78.10 and a fair value of HKD 93.67 [5]. Core Views - Anta Sports has demonstrated high operational quality in Q4, with Fila's sales recovery exceeding expectations. The main brand's revenue growth is driven by e-commerce channels and store renovations, maintaining a healthy inventory turnover ratio [8]. - The multi-brand strategy of Anta Group is showing robust development, with strong performance from brands like Descente and Kolon, indicating strong consumer purchasing power in the outdoor market [8]. - The earnings forecast for Anta Sports predicts EPS of RMB 4.70, RMB 4.81, and RMB 5.38 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a PE valuation of 18 times for 2025, leading to a fair value of HKD 93.67 per share [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 53,651 million in 2022 to RMB 81,594 million in 2026, with growth rates of 8.8%, 16.2%, 8.1%, 9.7%, and 10.4% respectively [4][10]. - EBITDA is expected to increase from RMB 12,483 million in 2022 to RMB 26,330 million in 2026 [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from RMB 7,590 million in 2022 to RMB 15,187 million in 2026, with growth rates of -1.68%, 34.86%, 29.60%, 2.26%, and 11.94% [4][10]. - The report indicates a stable gross margin, with projections of 58.2% in 2022 and increasing to 62.9% by 2026 [10]. Operational Insights - The main brand's operational quality is expected to remain stable, with online discounts maintained and a healthy inventory turnover ratio [8]. - The report highlights the successful adjustment of Fila's brand positioning, contributing to overall brand growth and maintaining healthy operational quality [8]. Market Position - Anta Sports is positioned to benefit from its strong channel management capabilities and cost control, which are expected to support steady growth in an uncertain retail environment [8].