Group 1: Core Insights - The light industry manufacturing sector is expected to experience a recovery in 2026, driven by external macroeconomic stabilization and internal demand adjustments, although the recovery will show differentiation among companies [5][6] - Investment strategies should focus on growth-oriented companies that are expanding overseas, as well as on the supply-side changes in the paper packaging sector and new consumer brands showing marginal improvements [5][6] Group 2: Home Furnishing Sector - The home furnishing industry is currently facing a downturn, with ongoing pressures from consumption and housing handovers, and limited benefits from national subsidies [13][19] - The market environment is expected to remain stable in 2026, with a focus on individual company performance, as the sector is significantly influenced by consumer sentiment and real estate policies [34][40] - The expected decline in new housing completions in 2026 is projected at 21%, which will continue to impact demand for home furnishings [34][40] Group 3: Essential Consumer Goods - The essential consumer goods market is adapting to new dynamics, with established brands facing challenges from evolving channels and increased competition [52] - The growth potential in mature markets remains stable, but the overall consumption environment has weakened, leading to increased competition among leading brands [52][53] - New consumption trends are emerging from changes in consumer sentiment and technological innovations, which are reshaping market dynamics [52][53] Group 4: Light Industry Exports - The light industry export sector has shown strong growth among leading companies, despite fluctuations due to economic cycles and inventory levels [5][6] - The outlook for 2026 suggests continued growth for top companies, supported by stable macroeconomic conditions and ongoing trends such as capacity relocation and cost reduction [5][6] - The overall recovery in the light industry export sector is anticipated to stabilize, with a focus on expanding product categories and niche markets [5][6] Group 5: Paper Packaging Sector - The paper packaging sector is expected to see a gradual recovery, with stable pricing anticipated for cultural paper and improved profitability driven by demand from the consumer electronics and AI sectors [5][6] - The profitability of the paper industry is projected to stabilize, with key factors including supply-demand dynamics and cost efficiencies playing a crucial role [5][6] - Leading companies in the metal packaging sector are expected to benefit from increased market concentration and enhanced pricing power [5][6]

[Table_Page] 投资策略|点评报告 2025 年 12 月 31 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 晨会精选 ——观点全追踪（12 月第 11 期） [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： [分析师： Table_Author]吴棋滢 SAC 执证号：S0260519080003 SFC CE No. BQN213 021-38003588 wuqiying@gf.com.cn [联系人： Table_Contacts] 毕露露 bilulu@gf.com.cn 972918116公共联系人2025-12-31 00:44:13 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1 / 3 投资策略|点评报告 广发投资策略研究小组 | 刘 | 晨 | 明 ：首席分析师，南开大学世界经济硕士，10 年策略研究经验。 | | --- | --- | --- | | 郑 | | 恺 ：首席分析师，华东师范大学金融学硕士，10 年策略研究经验。 | | 许 | 向 | 真 ：（上海）资深分析师，厦门大学硕士，8 年策略研究经验。 | | 倪 | | 赓 ：（上海）资深分析师，中山大学硕士，7 年 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The report indicates that the global excavator market is entering a new upward cycle, with overseas excavator sales recovering from -15% in January 2025 to +14% in October 2025. The recovery point of the cycle has arrived, with major growth regions including the US, Western Europe, Japan, and Asia-Pacific experiencing acceleration in demand [18][20]. - Chinese companies have successfully established a presence in overseas markets, with their market share in Africa, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Russian-speaking regions exceeding 30% by 2024, and over 5% in Europe and North America [20] - The report emphasizes the importance of tailored strategies for different markets, highlighting Japan, the US, and Asia-Pacific as key areas for in-depth analysis [20]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The global excavator market is experiencing a new upward cycle, with significant recovery in sales and demand across various regions [18]. Long-Cycle Perspective on Global Market Differences - Mature markets show relatively stable demand, while emerging markets exhibit greater volatility. The global earthmoving machinery sales have increased from 450,000 units in 2000 to an estimated 1,170,000 units in 2024 [25]. - The report categorizes the global market into four types: emerging markets (India), semi-mature markets (China), mature markets (Europe and North America), and stock markets (Japan) [26]. Japan Market: Stock Market and Demand Growth - Japan's construction machinery market has stabilized after experiencing significant downturns, with a focus on replacement cycles rather than new demand. The report notes that even during economic downturns, the decline in excavator ownership was less severe than the drop in construction investment [60][67]. US Market: High Value and Market Barriers - The US market is characterized by long-term upward demand driven by insufficient equipment stock and ongoing investments in residential and non-residential sectors. The report discusses the potential for Chinese companies to penetrate the US market by leveraging their competitive advantages [60]. Belt and Road Initiative: Potential Market Space - The Belt and Road Initiative is identified as a key area for growth, with demand driven by mining and infrastructure projects. The report highlights the potential for Chinese companies to increase their market share in these regions [60]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Hengli Hydraulic, indicating strong growth potential in the excavator market [20].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4]. Core Insights - The company is a leading provider of connectors in China, benefiting from trends in high-speed interconnectivity and liquid cooling [2][9]. - The demand for connectors is expected to grow significantly due to the booming data center construction and the increasing penetration of domestic products [9]. - The company has a strong position in the defense sector and is expanding its presence in the high-end manufacturing fields, including new energy vehicles and 5G communications [9]. Financial Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 20,074 million in 2023 to RMB 35,076 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.2% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from RMB 3,339 million in 2023 to RMB 4,344 million in 2027, with a peak growth rate of 28.8% in 2027 [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 1.58 in 2023 to RMB 2.05 in 2027 [3]. Company Overview - The company specializes in high-end connectors for aviation, defense, and advanced manufacturing, with over 300 series and 250,000 varieties of products [9][17]. - It has a robust product portfolio that includes electrical connectors, optical devices, cable assemblies, and integrated products, widely used in various high-end manufacturing sectors [9][17]. - The company has been in operation for over 50 years and aims to become a "global first-class interconnection solution provider" [17]. Industry Insights - The connector market is experiencing steady growth, driven by increasing demand in both military and civilian applications, particularly in new energy vehicles and 5G communications [9][62]. - The trend towards high-speed, high-capacity, and low-latency connections is pushing the demand for advanced connectors, with a significant shift from air cooling to liquid cooling solutions anticipated [9][62]. - The Asian connector market, represented by China, is emerging as a key player, with substantial opportunities for domestic replacements in various sectors [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for both Hong Kong and US stocks of Yum China [3] Core Insights - The company demonstrates strong resilience against economic cycles, with same-store sales expected to maintain a growth rate of 0-2% from 2026 to 2028, supported by robust operational performance and brand strength [7][36] - The company aims to expand its store count significantly, targeting 20,000 stores by 2026, 25,000 by 2028, and 30,000 by 2030, leveraging optimized capital expenditures and a flexible store model [7][36] - Shareholder returns are highlighted, with a commitment to maintain annual dividends and buybacks of $1.5 billion, translating to a return rate of approximately 8.8% based on current market capitalization [7][36] Financial Summary - Revenue projections show a steady increase from $10.978 billion in 2023 to $13.070 billion by 2027, with growth rates of 14.7% in 2023 and gradually declining to 6.2% by 2027 [2] - EBITDA is expected to rise from $1.559 billion in 2023 to $1.992 billion in 2027, indicating a consistent improvement in operational efficiency [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from $827 million in 2023 to $1.094 billion by 2027, with a notable increase of 87.1% in 2023 [2] Same-Store Performance - The company has shown a recovery in same-store sales since 2023, with KFC and Pizza Hut both returning to positive growth in 2025 [26] - The average transaction value for KFC has stabilized around 40 yuan, while Pizza Hut has adjusted its pricing strategy, reducing its average transaction value from over 100 yuan to around 70 yuan [26][36] Expansion Strategy - The introduction of new store formats such as Kenyue and KPRO is expected to contribute additional revenue, with Kenyue coffee stores rapidly expanding to 1,800 locations by Q3 2025 [44][62] - The company is focusing on a flexible store model and increasing the proportion of franchise stores to enhance its market presence [36][62] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to maintain a shareholder return strategy that aligns with its free cash flow, projecting annual returns of at least $900 million to $1 billion from 2027 onwards [7][36] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a return rate of approximately 5.3% to 5.8% based on future cash flow projections [7][36]

Core Insights - The current rise in Hong Kong stocks is supported by fundamentals, with signs of structural recovery in profitability starting from the second half of 2024, driven by stabilization in both domestic and external demand and macroeconomic policies [3][10] - The growth in high-end manufacturing and technology is transitioning from "single-point breakthroughs" to "multi-point explosions," with Hong Kong stocks shifting focus from traditional economic cycles to hard technology sectors like AI applications, new energy, and semiconductors [3][9] - The Hang Seng Index's earnings growth is expected to rebound to 10.8% in 2026, indicating a potential shift from liquidity-driven growth to a combination of profitability and liquidity support [3][11] Group 1: Fundamental Support for Hong Kong Stocks - Historical correlation exists between the Hang Seng Index's performance and earnings growth, with the current strength primarily driven by net inflows from southbound funds and foreign capital [10] - The structural recovery in profitability is evident, particularly in sectors less affected by traditional economic pressures, with emerging industries like pharmaceuticals and technology showing significant growth [20][19] - The impact of external factors, such as the recent food delivery subsidy war, has temporarily disrupted earnings expectations but is not indicative of a fundamental downturn [10][11] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Liquidity - Current market sentiment may have adjusted, and a potential liquidity improvement could lead to a new upward trend in Hong Kong stocks [3][31] - The Hang Seng Technology Index has experienced volatility due to external liquidity pressures, but the peak of lock-up share releases has passed, reducing market sentiment pressure [33][32] - Factors such as the potential for a dovish shift in the next Federal Reserve chair's policies and the stabilization of the Hong Kong dollar could alleviate liquidity constraints [50][52] Group 3: Sector Allocation Strategies - Focus on growth sectors, particularly those related to AI applications, energy storage, and innovative pharmaceuticals, as they are expected to catalyze earnings improvements [3][9] - Economic cycle-related assets should be monitored for potential supply-demand mismatches, particularly in chemicals and metals [3][19] - Stable value assets may still provide absolute returns, but the cost-effectiveness may decline compared to previous years, necessitating a focus on sectors with supply barriers and pricing power [3][30]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The digital RMB introduces new functions such as value storage and interest-bearing capabilities, providing a complete monetary function and ensuring wallet balances are classified as "commercial bank liabilities" protected by deposit insurance, fundamentally changing its previous status as merely "digital cash" [1] - On the operational level, a "one global account" dual-layer architecture clarifies that commercial banks are the service and responsibility entities, allowing digital RMB deposits to be included in asset-liability management (after reserve requirements) for lending, addressing the previous lack of motivation for banks to promote it [1] - From a regulatory perspective, bank-like operating institutions are included in the reserve requirement system, while non-bank payment institutions are subject to a 100% margin requirement, effectively preventing financial disintermediation and shadow banking risks. Concurrently, eight departments jointly issued opinions to support the construction of the new western land-sea corridor, further expanding the application boundaries of digital RMB and proposing integrated solutions for "payment settlement + financing + tax refunds" based on smart contracts, leveraging its core advantages of "payment as settlement and low cost" [1] Summary by Sections Personal Users - The interest-bearing feature directly enhances the willingness to hold digital RMB, making digital RMB wallets equivalent to "interest-bearing demand deposit accounts," which, combined with deposit insurance, significantly boosts the activity and usage rate of personal wallets [2] Enterprises - The instant cross-border payment feature is well-suited for high-frequency scenarios such as bulk commodity trading and cross-border trade, greatly shortening settlement cycles. Smart contract technology supports automated processing of financing and tax refund processes, reducing manual intervention and compliance costs, particularly benefiting small and micro enterprises in expanding cross-border business [2] Financial Institutions - Commercial banks gain a new source of funds and can develop comprehensive financial products around interest-bearing wallets, enriching their business ecosystem [2] Macro Level - The activation of financial IT services, hardware terminal manufacturing, and scenario operation services markets will lead to concentrated demand for bank system upgrades, payment terminal transformations, and smart contract development, driving revenue growth across related industry chains [2] Data Insights - As of November 2025, the cumulative transactions of digital RMB reached 3.48 billion, amounting to 16.7 trillion yuan, with 230 million personal wallets and 18.84 million corporate wallets. The multilateral central bank digital currency bridge processed cross-border payments totaling 387.2 billion yuan, with digital RMB transactions accounting for 95.3% [9]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [5] Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the overall revenue growth of overseas sports footwear and apparel companies slightly declined compared to Q2 2025, with a mixed performance in gross margins and an increase in most companies' SG&A expenses [5][12] - Brands focusing on niche segments like running and outdoor activities, such as ANTA, ASICS, and Deckers Outdoor, maintained high revenue growth rates, with ANTA growing by 34.5%, ASICS by 20.4%, and Deckers by 8.3% [12][13] - Most overseas sports footwear and apparel companies continued to show positive revenue growth, with notable performances from Skechers [12] - Revenue growth rates varied by region, with North America, Europe, and Greater China showing different trends; Europe had the best performance in Q3 2025 [5][20] - The apparel category showed stronger resilience in sales compared to footwear in Q3 2025 [5][25] Summary by Sections Section 1: Revenue Growth and Margin Performance - In Q3 2025, the revenue growth of overseas sports footwear companies decreased slightly compared to Q2 2025, with most companies experiencing an increase in SG&A expenses [5][12] - The revenue growth rates for major brands in Q3 2025 included Adidas at 8%, Lululemon at 7.1%, and ASICS at 20.4% [13][18] Section 2: Inventory Levels - Most overseas sports footwear companies saw an increase in inventory turnover ratios in Q3 2025, but overall inventory levels remained manageable [5][12] Section 3: Revenue Guidance for Fiscal Year 2025 - Compared to 2024, many companies have lowered their revenue growth guidance for the current fiscal year, although brands like Adidas, ANTA, and Lululemon have raised their full-year guidance for 2025 [5][18] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - Despite the slight decline in revenue growth and rising inventory turnover ratios, the long-term outlook for the sports footwear industry remains positive, driven by upcoming major sporting events and a recovery in order placements [5][18]

Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry is expected to see a recovery in performance, particularly in the upstream textile manufacturing sector, with positive trends in wool prices and inventory appreciation benefiting leading companies like New Australia [5] - The report highlights potential growth in the downstream apparel and home textile sectors, driven by the rise of the sleep economy and the recovery of traditional businesses, with companies like Luolai Life and Jinhong Group being key focuses [5] - The textile and light industry sectors have shown mixed performance, with the textile sector rising by 0.91% and light industry by 2.65% during the reporting period [13][18] Textile and Apparel Industry Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 2.31%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 3.02% during the period from December 22 to December 26, 2025 [13] - The textile and apparel sector ranked 22nd among 31 primary industries, while the light manufacturing sector ranked 11th [13] - The textile sector's latest PE (TTM) as of December 26, 2025, was 20.32X, with historical highs and lows of 57.80X and 14.44X respectively [15] Textile and Apparel Data Tracking - In the first nine months of 2025, China accounted for 17.10% of the EU's textile and apparel imports, followed by Bangladesh at 14.88% and Turkey at 6.18% [5] - The export values of Chinese cotton socks, zippers, and seamless apparel saw year-on-year declines of -3.40%, -0.65%, and -10.60% respectively in November 2025 [5] Light Industry Market Review - The light manufacturing sector's performance was bolstered by a favorable export environment, with key companies like Xiangxin Home and Yuanfei Pet showing potential for growth [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the housing market, with a reported 8.46% year-on-year increase in transaction area for major cities during the period [5] Key Company Valuation and Financial Analysis - Notable companies in the textile and apparel sector include: - Mercury Home Textiles (603365.SH) with a target price of CNY 23.08 and a current PE of 13.38X for 2025E [6] - Anta Sports (02020.HK) with a target price of HKD 105.00 and a current PE of 17.09X for 2025E [6] - Li Ning (02331.HK) with a target price of HKD 20.22 and a current PE of 19.79X for 2025E [6]

- The report introduces the construction of four ETF portfolios: A-share market asset allocation ETF portfolio, overseas equity index QDII-ETF portfolio, A-share relative return ETF portfolio, and A-share absolute return ETF portfolio, which are combined to form the All-weather diversified allocation ETF portfolio[7][12][13] - The A-share market asset allocation ETF portfolio is constructed using strategic allocation models (fixed ratio, volatility control, and risk parity) and tactical dynamic adjustment models based on macro and technical indicators. Monthly frequency scoring is applied to adjust weights[17][21][29] - Macro indicators for the A-share market asset allocation ETF portfolio include PMI, CPI YoY, social financing stock YoY, 10-year government bond yield, and USD index, with scoring ranges of -1, 0, 1 based on trends and impact directions[24][31][29] - Technical indicators for the A-share market asset allocation ETF portfolio are derived from trend, valuation, and fund flow dimensions, with scoring ranges of -1, 0, 1 for trend and fund flow, and -2, -1, 0, 1, 2 for valuation[32][34] - The A-share relative return ETF portfolio is constructed using six dimensions: historical fundamentals, fund flow, consensus expectations, macro, momentum, and style. Indicators are weighted and scored using Z-values[61][67][68] - The relative return ETF portfolio incorporates crowding indicators such as turnover ratio, beta, financing balance ratio, financing increment ratio, fund holdings ratio, and active buy-in ratio, with thresholds based on historical percentiles[69][72][73] - The A-share absolute return ETF portfolio focuses on stability, dividend yield, and low correlation with market volatility. Indicators include ROE TTM mean/standard deviation, net profit growth TTM standard deviation, dividend yield, cash dividend/net profit ratio, beta, semi-beta, and average correlation[84][90][89] - The All-weather diversified allocation ETF portfolio combines the above four portfolios, using fixed ratio models for strategic allocation and macro/technical indicators for tactical adjustments. It sets specific weight ranges for A-share relative and absolute return ETF portfolios[100][101] - Backtesting results for the A-share market asset allocation ETF portfolio show annualized returns of 9.75%, 8.41%, and 8.31% for fixed ratio, volatility control, and risk parity models respectively, with maximum drawdowns of 4.85%, 6.42%, and 2.77%[38][42] - The QDII-ETF portfolio achieves an annualized return of 18.51%, maximum drawdown of 16.78%, and annualized volatility of 11.64% during the backtesting period[59][56] - The relative return ETF portfolio with crowding indicators achieves an annualized return of 19.32%, maximum drawdown of 25.69%, and annualized volatility of 21.87%[82][78] - The absolute return ETF portfolio achieves an annualized return of 12.33%, maximum drawdown of 26.11%, and annualized volatility of 17.53%[98][94] - The All-weather diversified allocation ETF portfolio achieves an annualized return of 9.36%, maximum drawdown of 3.64%, and annualized volatility of 3.82%, with monthly win rates of 82.41%, 3-month rolling win rates of 98.11%, and 1-year rolling win rates of 100%[105][100]