| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|-------|--------|---------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | 内资净流入 外资净流入 | 资本净流入 | | | 内资净流入 | 外资净流入 资本净流入 | | 1,500 | | | | 1,500 | | | | | | | | 1,000 | | | | 1,000 | | | | 500 | | | | 500 | | | | 0 | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a focus on stabilizing the real estate market and suggests a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [1][70]. Core Insights - The central government emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market, with a target of adding 1 million units for monetary settlement in urban village renovations by 2025 [1][70]. - New housing transaction volumes have shown an upward trend, with new home sales in 50 cities reaching 6.64 million square meters, a 9.3% increase week-on-week and a 4.6% increase year-on-year [1][23]. - The report highlights a significant increase in second-hand housing transactions, with a year-on-year increase of 51.7% in 13 cities [1][28]. - The land transaction volume remains low, with a year-on-year decrease of 26.0% in land transfer fees across major cities [1][42]. Summary by Sections Policy Review - The report outlines recent policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including the prohibition of special bond funding for real estate development, except for affordable housing and land reserves [17][18]. - Local policies include full property rights for Shenzhen's affordable housing after ten years and mutual recognition of housing funds in five cities in Guangdong [19][20]. Key City Transaction Data - In December 2024, new home sales in 50 cities increased by 14.7% year-on-year, with first-tier cities seeing a 20.7% increase [23]. - Year-to-date, new home sales have decreased by 21.5% compared to the same period in 2023, with first-tier cities down 13.1% [24][45]. Inventory and Supply Tracking - The report notes a weekly increase in new housing supply, with 2.135 million square meters launched in 10 cities, a 24.5% increase week-on-week [58]. - The inventory levels and the de-stocking cycle are monitored, with specific data on major cities provided [39][61]. Land Market Conditions - The report indicates a significant decline in land transfer fees, with a 15.7% decrease in the first 26 days of December 2024 compared to the previous year [42]. - The land transaction volume remains low, reflecting a cautious market environment [62]. Financing and Company Recommendations - The report highlights a total of 3.25 billion yuan in domestic credit bond issuance for real estate companies, with a focus on cost reduction in financing [67]. - Recommended stocks include major real estate developers and property management companies, with specific suggestions for both A-shares and H-shares [71].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------|-------|-----------------|-----------------|-------|--------------------------|--------------|----------------|-------|-----------------|----------------------|---------|----------------|-------| | 股票简称 | 股票代码 | 货币 | 最新 \n收盘价 | 最近 \n报告日期 | 评级 | 合理价值 \n（元 / 股） | EPS( \n2024E | 元 ) \n2025E | 2024E | PE(x) \n2025E | EV/EBITDA(x) \n2024E | \n2025E | ROE(%) \n2024E | 2025E | | 航发动力 | 600893.SH | CN ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The tax exemption policy for cultural enterprises has been extended until December 31, 2027, significantly improving the cash flow and profitability of state-owned publishing companies [12][89] - The main business of educational publishing companies is expected to maintain steady growth in the short to medium term, despite a decline in profits in the first three quarters of 2024 due to increased corporate income tax payments [20][29] - The application of AI technology in the publishing industry is being implemented across various processes, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs [21][121] Summary by Sections Tax Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance, State Administration of Taxation, and Central Propaganda Department announced that operating cultural enterprises converted into companies will be exempt from corporate income tax until December 31, 2027 [25][50] - This policy is expected to lower cash outflow forecasts for state-owned publishing companies from 2024 to 2027, as many companies previously faced effective tax rates between 20%-30% [52][89] Educational Publishing Growth - Educational publishing companies are projected to maintain steady growth until 2027, with a focus on adapting to demographic changes and regulatory environments [20][29] - The decline in K12 student numbers in most provinces is anticipated to begin around 2025, but certain provinces like Zhejiang and Guangdong are expected to show resilience due to population inflows [29][59] AI Technology Integration - AI technology is being integrated into various aspects of the publishing process, including content planning, design, and marketing, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency [21][121] - Companies are launching AI-driven educational products, such as smart reading and AI-assisted tutoring, to meet evolving educational needs [115][116] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on state-owned publishing companies with high dividend yields or potential for dividend increases, such as Wanshin Media, Zhejiang Publishing, and Phoenix Media [79][89] - Companies with strong AI applications in education, like Southern Media and Wanshin Media, are also highlighted for their growth potential [89]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the context suggests a positive outlook for lithium extraction from salt lakes, indicating potential investment opportunities. Core Insights - The report highlights the steady development of lithium extraction from salt lakes in China, particularly in Qinghai and Tibet, with significant projects underway and expected to contribute to increased lithium supply and price stabilization [32][46]. - The establishment of the China Salt Lake Group aims to consolidate resources and enhance the development of a world-class salt lake industry base in Qinghai, with a target output value of 340 billion yuan by 2025 [66]. - The demand for lithium is projected to grow significantly due to the increasing production of electric vehicles and energy storage systems, with expectations of a robust market through 2025 [40][60]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Lithium Price and Demand - The report anticipates an upward shift in lithium price centers due to improved supply-demand dynamics, with a projected price range of 80,000 to 90,000 yuan per ton by 2025 [62][86]. - The demand for lithium is expected to grow rapidly, driven by the automotive sector and energy storage applications, with a notable increase in new energy vehicle sales in China [41][79]. Section 2: Development of Salt Lake Lithium Extraction - Qinghai's salt lake projects are progressing, with the establishment of the China Salt Lake Group to integrate resources and enhance production capabilities [32][66]. - In Tibet, the Zabuye salt lake has commenced trial production, while other projects are in various stages of development, indicating a gradual ramp-up in production capacity [32][70]. Section 3: Technology and Suppliers - Companies with capabilities in adsorption and membrane technology are highlighted as key players in the lithium extraction process, with several firms securing significant contracts for supply [46][47]. - Notable companies include Jiuwu High-Tech, which has won multiple contracts for its core technology, and Blue Sky Technology, which has established a strong presence in the salt lake lithium extraction market [46][47].

Investment Rating - The report rates the construction and decoration industry as "Buy" [18] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of optimizing the management mechanism for special bonds, expanding the scope of fund allocation and usage for project capital [5][43] - It highlights the establishment of the Low Altitude Economy Development Office, which is expected to accelerate the implementation of development strategies and promote infrastructure construction in the low-altitude economy sector [72] - The report suggests focusing on high-growth areas and regions, particularly recommending investment in nuclear power engineering, water conservancy, urban renewal, and the ice and snow economy [18][74] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The construction and decoration industry has seen a decline, with a reported drop of 1.5% in the week ending December 27, 2024 [73] - The report notes that the issuance of special bonds for 2024 reached 4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, while net financing decreased by 6.1% [74] Key Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on state-owned enterprises with strong performance in high-demand areas, particularly in nuclear power and urban renewal projects [18][74] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include China Nuclear Engineering, China Communications Construction, and China Electric Power Construction [18][74] Financial Analysis - The report provides a detailed financial analysis of key companies in the industry, including their latest closing prices, target values, and earnings per share projections for 2024 and 2025 [20] - For instance, China State Construction's latest closing price is 6.04 yuan, with a target value of 7.05 yuan, indicating a potential upside [20] Policy Developments - The report discusses recent policy changes, including the replacement of the "operating cash ratio" with the "operating revenue collection rate" as part of the new evaluation system for state-owned enterprises [39][60] - It also outlines the government's focus on enhancing the efficiency of special bond usage and ensuring that funds are directed towards high-quality projects [62][63]

空间 Xml [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|传媒 [Table_Title] 互联网传媒行业 12 月国产与进口游戏版号发布，阿里开源首个视觉推理模型 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 本周（12月23日-12月27日）中信传媒板块下跌7.61%，跑输上证指数 8.56个百分点。本周（12月23日-12月27日）A股传媒板块有所回调， 主要系市场预期近期AI等方向短期缺少强催化，年底资金兑现。我们 认为AI产业趋势在，同时传媒互联网政策环境边际宽松，并且短期春 节档有望表现亮眼，业绩预期向好、估值合理的方向推荐积极配置， 推荐关注互联网、游戏等板块，及营销和影视中绩优个股。 ⚫ 投资建议：（1）互联网：我们认为当前市值切换25年盈利预期来看， 互联网公司的PE普遍处于高个位数和低双位数区间，稳健增长的标 的，建议关注腾讯控股、以及音乐流媒体的腾讯音乐和网易云音乐， 未来的增长模型稳健，盈利空间仍在不断上拓。从宏观弹性来看，我 们建议关注和经济复苏强挂钩的外卖、电商以及广告增长为主要利润 支持的美团、快手、哔哩哔哩、微博。从出海超预期，我们建议关注 泡泡玛特（北美市场拓展和尺寸拓维）。内 ...

七、风险提示 . 松——银行资负跟踪 [Table_Title] 银行投资观察 20241229 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 12/23 03/24 05/24 08/24 10/24 12/24 银行 沪深300 SAC 执证号：S0260518020004 021-38003646 nijun@gf.com.cn [联系人： Table_Contacts] 李文洁 021-38003644 gfliwenjie@gf.com.cn 20241222 流动性宽松、同业存款自律政策调整和抢配置等因素驱动，12 月长债 利率大幅下行，高股息资产的相对吸引力再次上升，本月股息率成为驱 动个股上涨的重要因素（见图 2）。短期来看，展望 1 月份，我们认为 无风险利率下行驱动高股息重估的趋势将于 1 月中旬达到高峰，但也 可能是本轮持续三年高股息重估的尾声。其一，抢配置推动的利率下 行会让配置资金面对利率资产偏好下降，而配置资金增量同比可能亦 不会太强（参见资产配置 2025），因而长债将于一月初探至中期底部。 其二，流动性将于 1 月中旬后转紧。国内来看，1 月中旬为缴税高峰， 同时今年春节较早 ...

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你提供的Base64编码字符串是: 这段文本描述的是一个可以用于多种应用的大型语言模型。 榆入 * / " 使用 Kimi 探索版，解决复杂的搜索问题 图 14: 通义千问大模型回答密文解码问题的结果 1 6 数据来源:通义千问官网,广发证券发展研究中心 深度分析|计算机 个翻柱体重直放置在一个水平假上，列花颜直径为d，高为H，语圆出这个圆柱体在水平衡上的正规 影和假投影，并计算这些投影的面积，请详细解释你的推理和计算过程, 压投影是指物沐在霜直于观察方向的平腹上的投影，对于雷直较置的隔桂沐，美正投影是 图柱体的底测直径 d。 正投影的面积计算 2. 侧投影 側投影是指物体在平行于規幕方向的平面上的投影。对于重直放置的價柱体。 于圓柱体的就面直径 d, 颜皮等于圆柱体的酶 H。 ଖ୍ୟ 别的酒ଣ୍ଡା 婚 A则投影 = d × H 详细推理和计算过程 正规的 1. 确定投影影状：由于圆柱体凝直放置在水平面上,其正应影是- 2. 确定價的直径：開的直径等于蘭柱体的院测直径 d。 3. 计算酮的糖积：使用圆的面积公式 A = π -² ，其中学径 r @ 数据来源：DeepSeek 官网, 广发证券发展研究中心 ...