- The report introduces the construction of four ETF portfolios: A-share market asset allocation ETF portfolio, overseas equity index QDII-ETF portfolio, A-share relative return ETF portfolio, and A-share absolute return ETF portfolio, which are combined to form the All-weather diversified allocation ETF portfolio[7][12][13] - The A-share market asset allocation ETF portfolio is constructed using strategic allocation models (fixed ratio, volatility control, and risk parity) and tactical dynamic adjustment models based on macro and technical indicators. Monthly frequency scoring is applied to adjust weights[17][21][29] - Macro indicators for the A-share market asset allocation ETF portfolio include PMI, CPI YoY, social financing stock YoY, 10-year government bond yield, and USD index, with scoring ranges of -1, 0, 1 based on trends and impact directions[24][31][29] - Technical indicators for the A-share market asset allocation ETF portfolio are derived from trend, valuation, and fund flow dimensions, with scoring ranges of -1, 0, 1 for trend and fund flow, and -2, -1, 0, 1, 2 for valuation[32][34] - The A-share relative return ETF portfolio is constructed using six dimensions: historical fundamentals, fund flow, consensus expectations, macro, momentum, and style. Indicators are weighted and scored using Z-values[61][67][68] - The relative return ETF portfolio incorporates crowding indicators such as turnover ratio, beta, financing balance ratio, financing increment ratio, fund holdings ratio, and active buy-in ratio, with thresholds based on historical percentiles[69][72][73] - The A-share absolute return ETF portfolio focuses on stability, dividend yield, and low correlation with market volatility. Indicators include ROE TTM mean/standard deviation, net profit growth TTM standard deviation, dividend yield, cash dividend/net profit ratio, beta, semi-beta, and average correlation[84][90][89] - The All-weather diversified allocation ETF portfolio combines the above four portfolios, using fixed ratio models for strategic allocation and macro/technical indicators for tactical adjustments. It sets specific weight ranges for A-share relative and absolute return ETF portfolios[100][101] - Backtesting results for the A-share market asset allocation ETF portfolio show annualized returns of 9.75%, 8.41%, and 8.31% for fixed ratio, volatility control, and risk parity models respectively, with maximum drawdowns of 4.85%, 6.42%, and 2.77%[38][42] - The QDII-ETF portfolio achieves an annualized return of 18.51%, maximum drawdown of 16.78%, and annualized volatility of 11.64% during the backtesting period[59][56] - The relative return ETF portfolio with crowding indicators achieves an annualized return of 19.32%, maximum drawdown of 25.69%, and annualized volatility of 21.87%[82][78] - The absolute return ETF portfolio achieves an annualized return of 12.33%, maximum drawdown of 26.11%, and annualized volatility of 17.53%[98][94] - The All-weather diversified allocation ETF portfolio achieves an annualized return of 9.36%, maximum drawdown of 3.64%, and annualized volatility of 3.82%, with monthly win rates of 82.41%, 3-month rolling win rates of 98.11%, and 1-year rolling win rates of 100%[105][100]

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for all listed banks analyzed, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance [6]. Core Insights - The report focuses on the classification of financial investments, the current allocation of listed banks, and how related revenues are accounted for under new accounting standards [5]. - As of Q3 2025, the financial investments of 42 listed banks total approximately 101.5 trillion CNY, with 87% allocated to the configuration portfolio and 13% to the trading portfolio [5][23]. - The bond market is the primary investment direction for listed banks, accounting for 87.6% of their financial investments, with government bonds making up 59.5% of this total [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Classification of Financial Investments - Financial assets are classified into three categories under the new accounting standards: FVTPL (fair value through profit or loss), AC (amortized cost), and FVOCI (fair value through other comprehensive income) [12][13]. - The classification is based on the business model for managing financial assets and the cash flow characteristics of the financial assets [14]. 2. Accounting for Market Revenues - FVTPL assets reflect market fluctuations through "fair value changes" in profit or loss, while AC assets do not reflect fair value changes and primarily generate income from interest [5]. - FVOCI assets account for market fluctuations in other comprehensive income, with interest income recognized in profit or loss [5]. 3. Financial Investment Structure - The configuration portfolio is dominant, with state-owned banks showing the highest allocation to AC, while joint-stock banks and city commercial banks have a higher proportion of trading assets [23][24][25]. - The report notes a structural shift where FVOCI is becoming the main growth area, as banks seek flexibility in their investment strategies [5][23].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the artificial cultivation of Cordyceps sinensis is reshaping the industry, with traditional sectors giving rise to new opportunities [1] - The market for artificial Cordyceps is expected to grow due to its price advantage and increasing consumer demand for health products [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of technological advancements in artificial cultivation to overcome challenges and enhance production efficiency [1] Summary by Sections Section 1: Overview of Cordyceps Sinensis - Cordyceps sinensis, primarily sourced from the Tibetan Plateau, has an industry scale of nearly 400 billion CNY, with a recent decline in wild collection due to ecological and policy constraints [15][16] - The average price of Cordyceps reached a peak of over 220,000 CNY per kilogram in 2013, but has since fluctuated, currently averaging 190,000 CNY per kilogram as of November 2025 [15][36] Section 2: Decline in Wild Collection and Challenges in Artificial Cultivation - The collection of wild Cordyceps has decreased, with an estimated 85 tons harvested in 2023, a 23% decline from 2019 [44] - Artificial cultivation faces high technical barriers, including the need for stable infection rates and complex production processes [48] Section 3: Reshaping the Industry through Scaled Artificial Cultivation - The industry is transitioning towards a dual structure of "wild premium + artificial substitutes," with artificial Cordyceps gaining traction in the health market [55] - Major companies are investing in factory-based cultivation, with significant projects announced by Zhongxing Junye and Xuelong Biological [59][60] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on Zhongxing Junye and Xuelong Biological, which are actively expanding into the factory-based cultivation of Cordyceps [59][60]

Core Insights - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the internet media sector, highlighting strong performance in social entertainment media and internet healthcare, while noting challenges in e-commerce and short video segments [4][11]. E-commerce - The report indicates a decline in the year-on-year growth rate of physical e-commerce sales as per the National Bureau of Statistics, suggesting a weak overall sales outlook for Q4 [4][15]. - Alibaba's AI application, Qianwen, has integrated with Gaode Map, marking a significant step in its ecosystem [12]. Social Entertainment Media - Bilibili and Tencent's advertising performance continues to outperform the market, with Tencent's gaming fundamentals showing upward momentum [4][16]. - Tencent's new game, "Delta Action," is expected to become a major title alongside "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [4][16]. Internet Healthcare - JD Health and Alibaba Health are leveraging their leading platform advantages to deepen collaborations with upstream pharmaceutical manufacturers, resulting in strong revenue and profit growth [4][16]. Short Video - The report notes a recent decline in stock prices for AI application-related companies due to market sentiment, but maintains a positive outlook on Kuaishou's core business stability [4][16]. IP and Trendy Toys - Pop Mart's new flagship store in Shanghai is expected to enhance interactive space and expand its presence, with new IPs like 1001moons and supertutu being launched [4][16]. Long Video - The report suggests monitoring investment opportunities in iQIYI and Mango TV, as regulatory changes are expected to improve the long video sector's commercial model [4][17]. Music Streaming - TME and NetEase Music reported stable performance in Q3, although concerns about competition have led to a valuation adjustment [4][18]. Gaming Sector - The domestic gaming industry remains highly prosperous, with continued recommendations for leading companies like Tencent and NetEase, and a focus on companies with improving product trends [4][19]. Advertising - Focus Media has shown strong growth in non-recurring revenue, with a significant increase in advertising spending from internet advertisers in Q3 [4][19]. Publishing - Some publishing companies are facing challenges due to negative impacts from educational reforms, leading to delays in revenue recognition [4][19]. Film and Television - The report highlights the potential for recovery in the long video industry, with a focus on companies with strong production capabilities and project pipelines [4][20]. AI Applications - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in various sectors, including advertising and healthcare, suggesting a growing trend towards AI integration in business models [4][20].

Core Insights - The coal market is expected to gradually improve as November raw coal production continues to decline year-on-year, while daily consumption has room for growth [5][79] - The report indicates that the coal industry is rated as a "Buy" with expectations of improved profitability in Q4 2025 and 2026 [5][6] Market Dynamics - The price of thermal coal has continued to decline, with the CCI5500 thermal coal index reported at 716 RMB/ton, down 42 RMB/ton week-on-week [11][80] - In the main production areas, thermal coal prices have generally decreased, with Shanxi region prices dropping by 70 RMB/ton [11][80] - The coal mining capacity utilization rate was reported at 88.3%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points week-on-week [21][38] - Coal inventory at major ports increased by 2.8% week-on-week, reaching 7.261 million tons [21][24] Industry Outlook - The report anticipates a slight increase in coal demand in 2026, while supply is expected to have limited upward potential, leading to an upward adjustment in coal prices [5][79] - The report highlights that the coal industry’s total profit for the first ten months of 2025 was 257 billion RMB, a 49% year-on-year decline [5][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of the 2026 long-term contract policy, which aims to ensure stable supply and pricing in the coal market [82][85] Key Companies - Companies with stable dividends in the thermal coal sector include China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, and Shaanxi Coal [5][6] - High elasticity companies benefiting from improved demand expectations and supply contraction include Shanxi Coking Coal and Lu'an Environmental Energy [5][6] - Companies with long-term growth potential highlighted in the report include Baofeng Energy and China Qinfa [5][6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the recent advancements in AI models, including the release of Gemini 3 Flash by Google, which boasts a threefold increase in response speed compared to its predecessor [6][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI transformation across various sectors, suggesting potential investment opportunities in companies involved in cloud infrastructure, content creation, and AI applications [6][12] Summary by Sections Domestic AI Dynamics - Recent data shows that major domestic AI models have stable web traffic, with "豆包" leading in weekly visits at 2361.84 million, a 6.07% increase [20][24] - The average daily visit duration for "Kimi" is around 8 minutes, while "通义千问" and "DeepSeek" are approximately 5 minutes [12] - The report tracks significant events in domestic AI companies, such as 商汤科技's launch of the AI office assistant "小浣熊 3.0," which aims to redefine AI-native office paradigms [37] Overseas AI Dynamics - The report also tracks overseas AI models, noting that "ChatGPT" had a weekly visit of 1323.87 million, a 0.99% decrease [20] - The performance of international AI applications is monitored, with significant events reported in the AI sector [12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are likely to benefit from AI transformation, including Alibaba and Tencent in cloud infrastructure, and various content and media companies in the IP industry [6][12] - Specific companies recommended for investment include "阅文集团," "中文在线," and "快手" among others, indicating a diverse range of sectors poised for growth due to AI advancements [6][12]

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - In the third week of December, macro data reinforced expectations for a US interest rate cut next year, with stock, bond, and currency markets showing mixed performance[3] - The US unemployment rate rose from 4.4% to 4.6%, while inflation showed signs of cooling, potentially impacting the interest rate path[3] - The European Central Bank signaled that high interest rates may persist, while the Bank of Japan raised rates to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years[3] Group 2: Asset Performance and Market Trends - A-share market rotation accelerated, with non-tech sectors beginning to realize their odds advantage, leading to broad increases in consumer finance cycles[3] - The asset rotation index increased, with weekly average changes rising to 123 times, up from 116 times the previous week[11] - The S&P 500 fear and greed index dropped to -5.88, indicating a shift in market sentiment[12] Group 3: Commodity and Currency Movements - Commodity pricing showed resilience, with silver prices up nearly 130% year-to-date, while gold remained stable despite a slight decline[13] - The gold-silver ratio decreased to 65.9, indicating a significant increase in the relative attractiveness of gold compared to silver[13] - The US dollar index fluctuated, ending the week up 0.32% at 98.71, while the Japanese yen depreciated against the dollar[18] Group 4: Financial Conditions and Predictions - Financial conditions are expected to tighten, with the cost of risk assets increasing as the availability of cheap capital diminishes[9] - New growth signals, such as potential fiscal policies in the US and stabilization efforts in China, may offset tightening financial conditions[9] - The anticipated economic growth in 2026 could be influenced by various factors, including US fiscal policies and geopolitical stability in Europe[9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company’s A and H shares, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 15% over the next 12 months [7][18]. Core Insights - The acquisition plan has been finalized, significantly increasing the company's resources and further enhancing its competitive advantages [1]. - The acquisition involves purchasing 12 assets from the National Energy Group for a total consideration of RMB 133.6 billion, which includes RMB 40.08 billion in shares and RMB 93.52 billion in cash [7]. - The transaction is expected to increase the company's coal resources by 269 billion tons and enhance its operational capacity, with a projected increase in net profit of 13.4% for 2024 and 11.6% for 2025 [7]. Financial Forecast - Revenue is projected to decline slightly from RMB 343.07 billion in 2023 to RMB 310.46 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of -0.4% in 2023 and -8.2% in 2025 [2][11]. - EBITDA is expected to decrease from RMB 116.81 billion in 2023 to RMB 97.96 billion in 2025, reflecting a downward trend in profitability [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decline from RMB 59.69 billion in 2023 to RMB 52.29 billion in 2025, with a net profit margin of 20.3% in 2023 [11][14]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to decrease from RMB 3.00 in 2023 to RMB 2.63 in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.4 in 2023 [2][11]. Resource and Capacity Expansion - The acquisition will add significant coal production capacity of over 1.9 million tons and increase the company's coal and polyolefin output by approximately 185 million tons and 1.28 million tons, respectively [7]. - The company will also gain additional power generation capacity of 1.325 million kilowatts through the acquisition [7]. Valuation - The report estimates a reasonable value of RMB 46.85 per share for A shares and HKD 45.80 per share for H shares based on a projected P/E ratio of 17 times for 2026 [7].

Core Insights - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry in the coming months [2][6]. Industrial Metals and Steel - Industrial metal prices are expected to slightly decline due to seasonal factors and market caution regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. Copper processing fees for 2026 have been set at $0 per ton, reflecting ongoing tightness in copper concentrate supply. Short-term demand remains stable, with prices expected to recover in the medium term [6]. - Steel demand has improved slightly, with a 2% increase in rebar procurement in Shanghai. The overall steel price has risen by 0.4% week-on-week, with steel mills maintaining a profit margin of 36%. Short-term supply and demand are expected to remain balanced, keeping prices at the bottom [6]. Gold Market - The gold market is currently in a phase of speculation regarding interest rate cuts, with prices showing a slight upward trend. Recent U.S. labor statistics indicate a higher unemployment rate of 4.6% and a lower CPI of 2.7%, which may influence future gold prices. The market is closely monitoring upcoming economic data and changes in Federal Reserve personnel [6]. Minor Metals - Tungsten prices have surged by 15% to 429,000 CNY per ton, driven by upstream price support and rigid downstream demand. Cobalt prices have increased by 0.7% to 410,000 CNY per ton, with expectations of gradual supply-demand gaps emerging from new export quotas in the Democratic Republic of Congo [6]. - Lithium prices have rebounded to 110,000 CNY per ton for futures and 100,000 CNY per ton for spot prices, influenced by supply disruptions. The market anticipates wide fluctuations in lithium prices in the short term [6]. Key Companies and Valuation - The report highlights several companies with "Buy" ratings, including: - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH) with a target price of 19.74 CNY per share [7]. - Jiangxi Copper (600362.SH) and China Aluminum (601600.SH) are also noted for their strong performance potential [7]. - The report provides detailed financial metrics for these companies, including EPS, PE ratios, and ROE, indicating robust financial health and growth prospects [7].

- The report introduces a quantitative model based on Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) to analyze price-volume chart data and predict future prices. The learned features are then mapped to industry theme indices, such as the CSI 300 Non-Bank Financial Index, the CNI Commercial Satellite Communication Industry Index, and the CSI Sub-Chemical Industry Theme Index[79][81] - The construction process involves standardizing price-volume data into chart formats and applying CNNs to extract features. These features are subsequently used to allocate weights to specific industry themes[79][81] - The model's evaluation highlights its ability to capture complex patterns in price-volume data and its application in identifying promising industry themes like non-bank financials, satellites, and chemicals[79][81]