基于PB-ROE模型，我们强调军工板块25年投资策略有四：（1）强调ROE分子端稳 定增长持续性，重点关注军贸&航空燃机出海&大飞机&维修，关注航发动力/中国动 力/航发控制、国睿科技、中航重机、中航西飞、中航沈飞、洪都航空、中直股份、 中航高科、航材股份、中航机载、光威复材；（2）强调困境反转策略，重点在于判 航发动力，航空全球配套核心标的：（1）需求端，持续受益于高端航空装备批产需 求，中长期存在民航市场发动机国产替代机遇，长期看航空发动机高端防务及全球 民航大飞机市场存在较大体量的维修及替换需求。（2）供给及盈利端，公司作为国 内主导航空发动机供应商，航发产品核心机型谱化发展、重资产行业批产带动的产 能利用提升、高附加值低成本投入的维修业务占比扩大等均有望逐步抬升公司远期 盈利中枢水平。（3）业绩&估值预判，据公司2023年年报，2024年公司预计实现营 业收入497.62亿元，主营业务三大板块中航空发动机及行生产品收入464.82亿元， 外贸出口转包收入20.79亿元，非航空产品及其他业务收入6.33亿元。我们判断， 2024-25年预计归母净利润分别为15.22/19.29/25.65亿，24年动态 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock performance that will exceed the market by more than 15% over the next 12 months [46]. Core Insights - The company is positioned strongly in the EGR (Exhaust Gas Recirculation) market, which is expected to grow significantly due to stricter emission standards and the rise of hybrid vehicles [17][70]. - The EGR market is projected to reach approximately 5.2 billion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of 19.6% from 2024 to 2030, driven by increasing penetration rates in both light and heavy-duty diesel engines as well as hybrid passenger vehicles [71][72]. - The company has a competitive edge in the EGR market, holding a 40% market share, and is well-equipped with technological capabilities and product diversity [17][70]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 1,148 million yuan in 2022 to 3,771 million yuan by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 36.5% [2]. - Operating profit is expected to increase significantly from 71 million yuan in 2022 to 433 million yuan in 2026, indicating strong operational efficiency improvements [2]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 76 million yuan in 2022 to 384 million yuan in 2026, showcasing robust profitability growth [2]. Key Financial Ratios - The company's asset-liability ratio is projected to increase from 40.9% in 2022 to 53.9% in 2026, indicating a rising leverage position [3]. - The EBITDA is expected to grow from 155 million yuan in 2022 to 594 million yuan in 2026, reflecting improved earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to rise from 0.37 yuan in 2022 to 1.66 yuan in 2026, demonstrating strong earnings growth potential [2].

核心观点: ● 公司系国内面料印染龙头企业,随着下游需求复苏、小产能出清,公 司有望进一步提高市占率。公司印染业务具有产业链一体化优势,利润 率显著高于行业平均水平;现已进入 ZARA、M&S、Wal-Mart、VF 等 国际知名品牌的全球采购供应链体系,间接出口占比约为 60%。 2024H1,印染业务实现收入 19.35 亿元,同比+5.88%,利润总额 2.39 亿元,同比+5.59%。 ● 盈利预测与投资建议。预计 2024-2026 年公司 EPS 分别为 0.75/0.84/0.91 元/股。参考可比公司估值,综合考虑公司印染+黄金饰 品双主业发展格局,给予公司 2025年 10XPE,对应合理价值 8.44元 l股,维持"买入"评级。 ● 风险提示。原材料价格波动风险、市场竞争激烈风险、下游需求不景气 风险。 公司深度研究|纺织服饰 印染需求有望复苏,黄金业务持续提高市占率 | --- | --- | |------------------------|-------------| | 基本数据 | | | 总股本/流通股本(亿股) | 10.21/10.21 | | 总市值/流通市值(亿元) ...

[Table_Contacts] [Table_Title] 农林牧渔行业 中央农村工作会议召开，关注种植链相关投资机会 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 事件：中央农村工作会议 17 日至 18 日在北京召开，会议对做好 2025 年"三农"工作提出明确要求，坚持城乡融合发展，进一步深化农村 改革，完善强农惠农富农支持制度，全面推进乡村振兴。 粮食安全战略导向明确，生物育种产业化有望加快。会议强调，"要坚 决扛牢保障国家粮食安全重任，持续增强粮食等重要农产品供给保障 能力，稳定粮食播种面积，深入推进粮油作物大面积单产提升行动， 确保粮食稳产丰产"，"推进农业科技力量协同攻关，加快科技成果大 面积推广应用，因地制宜发展农业新质生产力"。生物育种是重要的农 业科技之一，是推动粮食作物单产提升的重要手段，转基因是生物育 种的重要方向之一。据世界农化网，2024-2026 年为转基因玉米产业 化三年示范期，2024 年允许种植范围由 2023 年 5 个省增加到 8 个省， 种植面积由 400 万亩扩大到 1000 万亩，渗透率约 1.5%。 健全土地承包及土地流转机制，农地价值有望进一步释放。会议提出， ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|计算机 证券研究报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the insurance industry, particularly focusing on the potential for increased equity allocation by insurance funds to navigate the low-interest-rate environment [2] Core Views - Insurance funds are expected to increase their allocation to equity assets, particularly high-dividend stocks and long-term equity investments, to enhance portfolio returns and mitigate the impact of declining fixed-income yields [2] - The report highlights the necessity of equity investments for insurance funds, given the long-term higher returns compared to fixed-income assets, both domestically and internationally [2] - The current equity allocation in the insurance industry (20.9% as of 24Q3) still has room to grow, with a regulatory cap of 25% for companies with a solvency adequacy ratio between 150% and 200% [2] Background: Declining Long-Term Interest Rates and Asset Shortage - Long-term interest rates have been declining, leading to lower returns on fixed-income assets, which are the largest component of insurance fund portfolios [2] - Non-standard assets, which previously offered higher returns, are maturing, and their supply is decreasing, further pressuring insurance funds to find alternative investments [2] - The bond allocation in the insurance industry has reached a relatively high level (45.4% in 2023), and further increases may not be necessary, especially as the duration gap has narrowed [2] - There is significant room for increasing equity asset allocation, with the current equity allocation at 20.9% compared to the regulatory cap of 25% [2] Necessity and Direction of Equity Allocation - Equity assets have historically provided higher long-term returns compared to fixed-income assets, making them essential for improving portfolio returns [2] - The future direction of equity allocation will focus on high-dividend stocks and long-term equity investments, which offer stable income and strategic synergies [2] - High-dividend stocks, when classified under the OCI (Other Comprehensive Income) account, provide stable dividend income without causing volatility in the profit and loss statement [2] - Long-term equity investments, despite their lower current allocation (e.g., 4.5% for China Life, 4% for Ping An), offer higher returns over the long term and are expected to see increased allocation [2] High-Dividend Asset Allocation Scale - Assuming a compound growth rate of 11% for insurance fund utilization from 2023 to 2026, the high-dividend investment scale is projected to reach between 1.16 to 1.5 trillion yuan by 2026 [2] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several insurance companies, including China Pacific Insurance (A/H), China Life Insurance (A/H), China Taiping (H), Ping An Insurance (A/H), China P&C Insurance (H), New China Life Insurance (A/H), and AIA Group (H) [2] Key Data and Trends - The bond allocation in the insurance industry increased from 34.6% in 2017 to 45.4% in 2023, while non-standard assets decreased from 40.2% to 32.7% over the same period [2] - The net investment yield for listed insurers has been declining, with China Life dropping from 4.6% in 2017 to 3.7% in 2023, and Ping An from 5.8% to 4.2% [2] - The average investment yield for China Pacific Insurance's equity assets from 2013 to 2022 was 7.3%, higher than fixed-income assets (5.1%) and cash (1.6%) [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The introduction of external investor BARRIE into the wholly-owned subsidiary Duncan Company is expected to enhance the competitiveness of the company's cashmere business. The investment involves a cash increase of £9.562255 million, with BARRIE acquiring 40% equity in Duncan Company at a valuation of approximately £47.115948 million [2][3]. - Duncan Company, a renowned cashmere yarn manufacturer, has shown a total revenue of 218.532 million yuan in the first three quarters of the year, despite a net loss of 0.0623 million yuan. The partnership with BARRIE, a key client and supplier to luxury brands like Chanel, is anticipated to strengthen long-term ties with high-end customers and improve financial strength [3]. - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in performance, focusing on expanding its wool and cashmere business while enhancing production capacity in Ningxia and Vietnam. The high gross margin of self-produced and self-sold cashmere products is on the rise [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 0.60 yuan, 0.67 yuan, and 0.76 yuan, respectively. Based on a 14x price-to-earnings ratio, the reasonable value is estimated at 8.37 yuan per share [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million yuan) is projected to grow from 3,950 in 2022 to 5,984 in 2026, with growth rates of 14.6%, 12.4%, 10.7%, 10.9%, and 9.8% respectively [4]. - Net profit (in million yuan) is expected to increase from 390 in 2022 to 558 in 2026, with growth rates of 30.7%, 3.7%, 8.1%, 11.6%, and 14.4% respectively [4]. - EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.54 in 2022 to 0.76 in 2026, with a corresponding price-to-earnings ratio decreasing from 13.30 to 10.15 [4].

[Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2024-12-18 [Table_Contacts] [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|传媒 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 传媒行业 豆包大模型家族升级，看好字节 AI 产业链机会 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 事件：12 月 18 日，字节举办 2024 火山引擎 FORCE 原动力大会。在 大模型、中间层、服务层实现创新升级。 ⚫ 豆包大模型家族升级，多模态能力持续提升。大模型侧：通用模型 Pro 迭代提升，视觉理解模型发布，音乐模型 4.0 发布，视频生成模型将在 1 月发布。（1）豆包视觉理解模型正式发布，具有更强的内容识别能 力、理解和推理能力以及更细腻的视觉描述能力，会上展示了豆包视觉 理解模型在教育、旅游、电商等场景的应用。豆包·视觉理解的输入价 格为每千 tokens 0.003 元，比行业平均价格降低 85%。（2）豆包通用 模型 Pro 迭代新版本，综合任务处理能力较 5 月份提升 32%，在推理 上提升 13%，在指令遵循上提升 9%，在代码上提升 58%，在数学上 提升 43%，在专 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the computer industry as "Buy" [4]. Core Insights - The HarmonyOS system, as a leading domestic operating system, is growing robustly based on OpenHarmony. The evolution of Android serves as a reference, highlighting the importance of open-source and ecosystem development for profitability. Currently, HarmonyOS devices exceed 1 billion, with over 15,000 native applications available [4][24]. - The report anticipates that HarmonyOS will first be implemented in critical industries such as finance and energy, with broader applications expected as partnerships deepen [4][59]. - The report emphasizes the potential benefits for software outsourcing companies and industry information technology firms due to the development of HarmonyOS [4][59]. Summary by Sections Section 1: HarmonyOS as a Leading Domestic Operating System - HarmonyOS is designed for full-scenario, microkernel-based distributed operations, aiming for seamless connectivity among devices [24]. - The system comprises three parts: OpenHarmony (open-source), HarmonyOS (closed-source), and HarmonyOS NEXT (pure Harmony) [25][26]. Section 2: HarmonyOS Ecosystem Development and Market Size Estimation - The ecosystem will thrive around OpenHarmony and HarmonyOS, with significant market opportunities identified in various sectors [4][59]. - The report highlights the rapid advancement of HarmonyOS in specific industries, predicting that PC versions will begin pre-installation soon [4]. Section 3: Potential Benefits for Software Outsourcing and IT Companies - Companies like ChinaSoft International and Softcom Power are deeply involved in the development and application of HarmonyOS, contributing to its ecosystem [4][59]. - The report notes that these companies are well-positioned to leverage HarmonyOS's growth for improved profitability [4][59].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 5.39 CNY per share based on a 9x PE valuation for 2025 [5][131]. Core Insights - Zhejiang Jiaokai is a leading player in the transportation infrastructure construction industry in Zhejiang Province, with a stable growth trajectory. The company reported a revenue of 46 billion CNY in 2023, with a CAGR of 11.8% from 2018 to 2023. The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 1.29 billion CNY, with a CAGR of 1.8% during the same period [3][41]. - The company benefits from strong demand for transportation investment in Zhejiang, with the major shareholder, Zhejiang Transportation Investment Group, playing a crucial role in infrastructure projects. The total road mileage in Zhejiang is expected to reach 128,000 km by the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with significant contributions from the company [3][60]. - The company is diversifying its business, with a notable increase in non-construction engineering orders, which rose from 17.1% to 36.4% from 2020 to 2023 [3][75]. - The maintenance business and construction industrialization are key growth areas, with maintenance revenue growing from 1.83 billion CNY in 2018 to 4.12 billion CNY in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 17.7% [3][86]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Zhejiang Jiaokai focuses on infrastructure construction, having transitioned from a chemical company to a construction-focused entity. The company has been listed since 2017 and has a diverse portfolio including transportation, urban construction, and maintenance [3][24]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 46.05 billion CNY in 2023, with a slight decline of 1.2% from the previous year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.35 billion CNY, down 13.3% year-on-year [4][41]. - The company expects net profits of 1.43 billion CNY, 1.56 billion CNY, and 1.71 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3][128]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing infrastructure investments in Zhejiang, with a projected total investment of 2 trillion CNY during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3][60]. - The company has a strong order backlog, with a total contract amount of 238.34 billion CNY as of Q3 2024, indicating robust future revenue potential [3][71]. Diversification and Innovation - The company is expanding its non-construction engineering business and has made significant strides in maintenance and industrialization, with a focus on digitalization and automation in its operations [3][86][94]. - The construction industrialization segment has seen a growth in revenue, with 24 industrialization bases established, contributing to increased efficiency and reduced costs [3][115]. Profitability and Valuation - The report forecasts a stable gross margin of around 8.6% for the next few years, with a focus on maintaining profitability through operational efficiencies [3][128]. - The company is valued at a reasonable PE ratio compared to its peers, reflecting its strong market position and growth prospects [5][131].