[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|计算机 2024 年 12 月 10 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 计算机行业：OpenAI 新品发布追踪系列（一） OpenAI 积极探索商业化，Sora 正式上线，从创作工具向生产力 工具转变 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------|------------------------------| | | | | | | [Tabl 分析师： | 刘雪峰 | 分析师： | 周源 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号： S0260514030002 SFC CE.no: BNX004 | | SAC 执证号： S0260523040001 | | | 021-38003675 | | 0755-23948351 | | | gfliuxuefeng@gf.com.cn | | shzhouyuan@gf. ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating, but it maintains an optimistic outlook on the future demand and order growth for the medical IT sector over the next 3-5 years [5][58] Core Views - The medical IT industry's public order data for January-November 2024 shows slight fluctuations compared to 2023, with a 6% YoY decrease in total order value but a 33.2% YoY increase in order quantity [3][20] - The order structure is dominated by traditional hospital informatization projects (85.5%), followed by electronic medical records/interoperability (8.9%), public health IT (1.0%), and medical insurance IT (4.5%) [4][57] - Leading suppliers in the medical IT market, such as Winning Health, B-soft, Neusoft, and DHC Software, hold a combined market share of 68.6% for all orders and 81.1% for orders over 10 million RMB [5][57] - Future demand is expected to recover further, with continued policy support for medical IT framework and detailed regulations [5][58] Order Data Analysis Cumulative Order Data - Total medical IT order value for January-November 2024 was 5.594 billion RMB, a 6% decrease YoY but a 3.1% compound growth rate compared to 2022 [3][20] - Total order quantity for the same period was 3,584, a 33.2% YoY increase and a 38.2% compound growth rate compared to 2022 [3][20] Monthly Order Data - Monthly order value changes for January-November 2024 showed significant fluctuations, with notable YoY decreases in May (-9.2%), June (-1.8%), July (-38.3%), September (-32.0%), and November (-30.6%) [4][24][25] - The fluctuations are attributed to the high base effect from 2023 when hospitals were recovering from public health impacts [4][24] Regional Order Distribution - The top regions for medical IT investment in January-November 2024 were Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Shandong, while the lowest were Gansu, Hainan, Ningxia, Tibet, and Jilin [39] Large Orders (Over 10 Million RMB) - The total value of large orders in January-November 2024 was 2.074 billion RMB, a 42.1% YoY decrease and a 15.4% compound decline compared to 2022 [42] - The number of large orders decreased by 18.9% YoY to 133, with a 4.4% compound growth rate compared to 2022 [42] Supplier Landscape - In the large order segment (over 10 million RMB), B-soft (20.4%), Wonders Information (15.2%), Neusoft (26.4%), and DHC Software (19.1%) held a combined market share of 81.1% [5][46] - For all orders, Winning Health (24.0%), B-soft (12.7%), Neusoft (20.0%), and DHC Software (11.9%) led with a combined market share of 68.6% [5][46] Future Outlook - The report expects downstream demand to recover further, with continued policy support for medical IT framework and detailed regulations [5][58] - The industry is likely to see increased concentration, with leading suppliers having a clear advantage in future bidding processes [5][57]

回暖，户外趋势，市值管理 [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|纺织服饰 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 海外运动鞋服行业全球观察 24Q3 财报总结：聚焦跑步公司表现更优，多数毛利率改善 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 24Q3 聚焦跑步的体育用品公司营收表现更优，多数公司毛利率改善。 根据财报，除昂跑、德克斯户外、亚瑟士专注跑步品类细分赛道的公司 及斯凯奇、阿迪达斯外，24Q3 多数海外体育用品公司营收同比增速仅 为单位数或同比下滑，主要系受到北美消费疲软等因素影响。（1）分 地区来看，大中华营收同比增速优于其他地区，但北美、大中华地区及 EMEA/欧洲地区营收增速均环比放缓。（2）分品类来看，24Q3 鞋类 销售韧性更强。（3）在盈利能力方面，24Q3 多数代表性体育用品公 司毛利率有所改善。24Q3 除德克斯户外、亚瑟士、安德玛 SG&A 费 率下降之外，其他品牌 SG&A 费率均有所提升，主要系 24 年为体育 大年，相应广告费用有所增加，同时人工成本、租金、折旧摊销等增加。 ⚫ 当前财年营收增速指引放缓，24Q3 后多公司上调营收指引。根据财 报，在营收指引方面，除阿迪达斯 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Hold" [6] Core Viewpoints - The industry fundamentals are under short-term pressure, but the sector is expected to gradually emerge from difficulties. The construction materials industry has faced valuation and performance pressures over the past three years due to real estate deleveraging, intensified competition, raw material fluctuations, and bad debts. Currently, industry profitability is at a historical low, with cement and glass prices, unit profitability, and quarterly revenue growth and net margins of consumer building materials companies all at historical bottom levels. Valuations in the sub-sectors remain below historical averages, and core companies have seen historical lows in valuation within the last 2-3 quarters. Although the industry fundamentals are still under short-term pressure, expectations are continuously improving, and leading companies have demonstrated resilience through stress tests [3][4]. - The report is particularly optimistic about retail building materials leaders that have significant performance and valuation elasticity. Retail building materials show resilience at the bottom, with substantial growth potential in the medium to long term. As the proportion of second-hand housing and the age structure of existing homes increase, the demand for renovation in consumer building materials is expected to rise. Policies promoting trade-ins and renovation subsidies will benefit building materials with strong existing attributes. During a beta down phase, retail building materials exhibit stronger resilience, highlighting their long-term value in a stock-based era. From a mid-term perspective, the growth logic driven by the large post-real estate market and increased industry concentration remains unchanged, and high-quality leaders with strong brand and channel capabilities still have significant growth potential. Additionally, during the recovery phase of the economy, industry leaders are expected to achieve strong profit recovery. The optimization of the market structure, easing price competition, and the expansion of high-margin businesses by quality leaders will significantly restore gross profit levels, coupled with a decrease in expense ratios and reduced impairment burdens, leading to a potential mean reversion in profit margins and substantial profit elasticity. Furthermore, with changes in mainstream consumption scenarios and channel structures, the bargaining power of the industry chain is expected to improve, and the balance sheets and cash flow statements of quality leaders are likely to gradually recover, suggesting that the industry valuation center has room for upward adjustment based on overseas experiences [4]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on species with significant performance and valuation elasticity, such as Sanhe Tree, Oriental Yuhong, Zhite New Materials, China Liansu, and Jianlang Hardware. Additionally, low-valuation targets with relatively stable fundamentals include Tubao, Weixing New Materials, and Beixin Building Materials. Lastly, leading companies in fiberglass, cement, and glass that are at the bottom of the profit cycle but have significant competitive advantages include China Jushi, Anhui Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Qibin Group [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - E-commerce penetration remains steady, with a shift towards smaller packages in express delivery. In Q3 2024, the year-on-year growth rate of online retail sales of goods and services was 6.4%, with physical goods online retail sales growing by 6.2%, an increase from 5.2% in Q3 2023 [4][23] - Major e-commerce platforms reported revenue growth in Q3 2024, with Alibaba and JD.com showing single-digit growth, while Pinduoduo's revenue surged by 44.3%. The core business revenue growth rates for Alibaba, JD.com, Pinduoduo, and Vipshop were 2.5%, 6.3%, 71.5%, and -9.2% respectively [5][27] - The Double Eleven shopping festival in 2024 saw an early start and extended duration, with expectations for GMV performance to exceed forecasts due to enhanced product pricing power and service quality across platforms [5][6][97] Summary by Sections Q3 2024 E-commerce Growth and OTA Recovery - E-commerce penetration remains robust, with express delivery showing a trend towards smaller packages. Q3 2024 online retail sales of goods and services reached a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, while physical goods online retail sales grew by 6.2% [4][23] - Major e-commerce platforms maintained positive revenue growth, with Alibaba and JD.com achieving single-digit growth rates, while Pinduoduo's revenue increased significantly by 44.3% [5][27] - The online travel agency (OTA) sector also showed strong recovery, with Ctrip and Tongcheng achieving notable revenue growth in Q3 2024 [48][49] Major E-commerce Platforms Maintain Positive Shareholder Value - In Q3 2024, leading e-commerce platforms continued to focus on shareholder returns, with Alibaba repurchasing 4.05 million shares worth $4.1 billion, and JD.com repurchasing $390 million worth of shares [68][69] Double Eleven: From Low Price Wars to Stabilizing Fundamentals - The strategy for the Double Eleven shopping festival shifted from a focus on low prices to enhancing consumer experience, with platforms extending the duration of promotional activities [97][100] - The implementation of the "old-for-new" subsidy policy significantly boosted appliance sales during the Double Eleven event, with total sales reaching 14.418 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.6% [117][124] Investment Recommendations - Focus on JD.com, which benefits from the "old-for-new" policy and improved product layout; Alibaba, which is undergoing organizational restructuring to enhance growth potential; Pinduoduo, which is improving its monetization rate; and Vipshop, which is actively repurchasing shares [6][127]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 28.20 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 23.21 CNY [6]. Core Views - The company announced the acquisition of minority shares in Guangdong Chubang Food Co., Ltd., which will enhance its financial statements by consolidating profits from this subsidiary [2]. - The revenue for Chubang is projected to be 1.789 billion CNY with a net profit of 317 million CNY for the first three quarters of 2024. The net profit is expected to increase to 427 million CNY in 2024 and 491 million CNY in 2025 due to reforms and improved profit margins [2][3]. - The company anticipates a recovery in revenue in Q4 2024, driven by channel reforms and improved sales performance, with significant contributions expected from the restaurant channel and products like soy sauce and chicken essence [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 5.394 billion CNY, 5.970 billion CNY, and 6.639 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 4.96%, 10.68%, and 11.20% respectively [4]. - The forecasted net profit for the parent company is 779 million CNY in 2024, 993 million CNY in 2025, and 1.141 billion CNY in 2026, with year-on-year changes of -54.11%, +27.53%, and +14.87% respectively [4]. - The company’s EBITDA is expected to grow from 1.091 billion CNY in 2024 to 1.503 billion CNY in 2026, indicating a positive trend in operational efficiency [5]. Valuation Metrics - The estimated P/E ratios for the company are projected to be 20, 15, and 13 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, suggesting a favorable valuation compared to historical performance [4]. - The report assumes a reasonable value of the real estate business at 3 billion CNY, which impacts the overall market valuation [4].

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Industry Overview - The global mobile application market is vast, with 1.56 trillion downloads in 2024, expected to reach 1.89 trillion by 2027 [14] - In-app advertising (IAA) is a crucial monetization method, with the global IAA market projected to reach $352.2 billion in 2024, accounting for over 40% of digital ad revenue [23] - The in-game advertising (IGA) market is a significant driver of IAA growth, with a projected size of $109.6 billion in 2024 and a CAGR of 9.1% from 2024 to 2029 [23] Company Business Model - The company operates in two main segments: software platforms and applications, with the software platform business being the core [32] - The software platform business includes AppDiscovery, MAX, Adjust, Wurl, SparkLabs, AppLovin Exchange, and Array, supported by the AI engine AXON [32] - The applications business consists of over 200 free mobile games across various genres, operated by 11 in-house studios [32] Financial Performance - In 24Q3, the company reported revenue of $1.198 billion, a YoY increase of 38.6% and a QoQ increase of 10.9% [3] - Adjusted EBITDA for 24Q3 was $722 million, with a margin of 60.2%, up from 45.8% in 22Q4 [61] - The software platform business drove growth, with revenue of $835 million in 24Q3, a YoY increase of 65.6% and a QoQ increase of 17.5% [3] AI and Technology - The company's AI engine, AXON, leverages machine learning to optimize ad targeting and improve ad delivery efficiency [33] - AXON 2.0, launched in 2023H1, further enhanced ad monetization and delivery effectiveness, contributing to the company's performance improvement [33] - The company's cloud infrastructure supports large-scale data processing and ensures high flexibility to meet customer needs globally [33] Market Position and Competition - The company holds a leading position in the mobile in-game advertising market, with a 35% share on iOS and 17% on Android in 24Q2 [23] - Competitors include Google Admob, Unity Ads, and Mintegral, with the market being relatively concentrated on iOS and more fragmented on Android [23] Future Outlook - The company is piloting an advertising program in the e-commerce sector, with early data showing promising results, including a 100% increase in traffic [4] - For 24Q4, the company expects revenue between $12.4 billion and $12.6 billion, representing a YoY growth of 30.1% to 32.2% [74] - Adjusted EBITDA for 24Q4 is projected to be between $740 million and $760 million, with a margin of around 60% [74]

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