| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 伊朗局势陷入不可知，如果通胀抬头，降息预期将会逆反，流动性危机将会重创所 | | | 多单持有 | 有资产，黄金也不例外，市场大跌。昨日特朗普表示可护送游轮通过霍尔姆兹海峡。 | | ★ | | 收回部分跌幅。长期战略配置价值不变，短期关注结构性的入场时机。 | | | | 伊朗的疯狂反扑或造成重大危机，全球经济或面临衰退，白银下跌。如果伊朗危机 | | 白银 | | 等新兴领域的需求仍然较大，但是伊朗局何时收 | | ★ | 观望 | 结束，白银光伏、新能源汽车及 AI 场不可知。短期白银参与难度大，关注风险报偿比。 | | | | 伊朗局势失控，原油暴涨，通胀预期抬头压制美联储降息预期，市场避险情绪走高， | | 铜 ★ | | 万关口，建议等待回调企 | | | 多单持有 | 资金涌入美元避险，贵金属退潮有色承压，铜短期回踩 10 稳，中长期对铜依旧看好。 | | 锌 | 反弹承压 | 宏观多空交织，市场避险情绪走高，锌供需双弱，库存累库制约上行空间，建议谨 | | ★ | | 慎看多，关注节后需求恢复节 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views - The overall market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical conflicts, central bank policies, and supply - demand relationships. Geopolitical tensions, especially the situation in the Middle East, have a significant impact on the prices of commodities like precious metals, energy, and some chemicals. Central bank policies, such as potential interest rate cuts by the Fed, also influence market expectations. Supply - demand imbalances in different industries drive price trends, with some industries facing supply shortages or excess, and demand either growing or remaining weak [1][2][8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The international gold price denominated in London Gold fell 4.39% to $5087 per ounce, and the international silver price denominated in London Silver dropped 8.18% to $81.98 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Tensions in the Middle East, changes in Fed interest - rate cut expectations, and inventory changes in different regions and ETFs. For example, domestic gold inflow was 2.1 tons, and some inventories decreased, while India's silver import demand continued to improve [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in gold and reduce long positions in silver and wait and see [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated weakly [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Delayed interest - rate cut expectations due to rising oil prices, supply - side copper ore shortage but high refined copper production, and weak demand in the off - season [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a range - bound trading strategy in the short term [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 2.29% to 23905 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: High - load production on the supply side and a slight increase in the weekly aluminum product start - up rate on the demand side [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate strongly due to geopolitical conflicts and improving downstream demand [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 1.23% to 2807 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in operating capacity on the supply side and high - load production of electrolytic aluminum plants on the demand side [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate strongly in the short term, but new production capacity may suppress the price in the future [2][3]. Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: On March 3, the zinc and lead main contracts closed at 24370 yuan/ton and 16840 yuan/ton respectively, with price drops [3]. - **Fundamentals**: For zinc, large accumulation of social inventory, slow resumption of downstream enterprises, but low overseas LME inventory provides some support; for lead, increasing social inventory, some refineries delaying resumption due to high costs, and weak spot trading [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hedge zinc at high prices and trade lead within a range [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.20% from the previous trading day [3]. - **Fundamentals**: An increase in the number of open furnaces on the supply side, slight inventory accumulation, and recovery in demand from downstream industries such as polysilicon and organic silicon [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate between 8200 - 8600 yuan. Consider short - selling lightly at high prices if the large - scale production cut is short - lived [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 150,860 yuan/ton, with a limit - down [3]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in the price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate, an increase in production, and changes in demand and inventory. For example, SMM expects a 8.7% increase in March production compared to January [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may oscillate with high volatility around 140,000 - 150,000 yuan in the short term. Wait and see the new - energy vehicle consumption in March to judge the future price trend [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 43700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.74% from the previous trading day [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Stable weekly production, an increase in industry inventory, and a recovery in downstream production scheduling [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate weakly between 43000 - 53000 yuan in the short term [4]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices dropped significantly [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Delayed interest - rate cut expectations and a tight supply of tin ore, with active trading at lower prices [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a buying opportunity after the implied volatility decreases [4]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3067 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Seasonal inventory accumulation, a significant difference in supply - demand between building materials and hot - rolled coils, and relatively low rebar futures valuation [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in rebar and wait and see. The reference range for RB05 is 3040 - 3100 yuan [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 746.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil, a decrease in arrivals, and low port inventory [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 730 - 760 yuan [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1117 yuan/ton, up 32.5 yuan from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: An increase in molten iron production, the implementation of the first round of coke price increase, and high - level port clearance [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in coking coal and wait and see. The reference range for JM05 is 1090 - 1150 yuan [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose overnight [6]. - **Fundamentals**: A丰产 expectation in South America, strong US soybean crushing and export expectations [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans are strong. Pay attention to US soybean exports and South American production realization. The domestic market may oscillate strongly in the short term but lacks upward momentum in the medium term [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices fell, while spot prices continued to rise [6]. - **Fundamentals**: More than 60% of grain sales completed, low port and downstream inventory, and losses in downstream industries [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the futures price to oscillate strongly due to limited supply and downstream restocking [6]. Edible Oils - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose, driven by the increase in crude oil prices [6]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in February production and exports in Malaysia, and an expected decrease in end - February inventory [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The edible oil market is in a weak cycle but may rebound in the short term due to rising crude oil prices. Pay attention to crude oil prices and production in the producing areas [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: ICE US cotton futures prices continued to fall, while Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated narrowly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Smooth cotton sowing in Brazil, stable domestic cotton prices, and an increase in cotton yarn prices [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy at low prices. The reference price range is 15000 - 15600 yuan/ton [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices were weak, and spot prices slightly decreased [6]. - **Fundamentals**: It is the traditional off - season for egg demand, and supply is sufficient [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the futures price to oscillate weakly [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices were weak, and spot prices continued to fall [6]. - **Fundamentals**: An increase in the number of pigs for slaughter after the Spring Festival and a seasonal off - season for demand [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the futures price to oscillate weakly [6]. Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main LLDPE contract continued to rise significantly. The basis strengthened, and market trading was good [7]. - **Fundamentals**: No new device production in the first half of the year, a slowdown in domestic supply pressure, and an improvement in downstream demand [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly in the short term, with the upside limited by the import window. Short at high prices in the medium term [7]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 contract closed at 4939 yuan/ton, up 2.4% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Affected by rising oil prices, high social inventory, and weak demand [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see due to balanced supply and weak demand and low valuation [7]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PXCFR China price was $1019/ton, and PTA East China spot price was 5525 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamentals**: High - level supply of PX, restart of some PTA devices, and PTA inventory accumulation [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Keep waiting and see in the PTA inventory - accumulation pattern [7]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The fg05 contract closed at 1053 yuan/ton, up 0.6% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in supply, weak demand, and high inventory [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy glass and sell soda ash [7]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main PP contract continued to rise significantly. The basis strengthened, and market trading was good [8]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in new device production in the short term, a reduction in supply pressure, and an improvement in downstream demand [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly in the short term, with the upside limited by the import window. Short at high prices in the medium term [8]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The East China spot price of MEG was 3894 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Potential supply shortages due to geopolitical conflicts, and expected inventory reduction in March [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: SC crude oil had three consecutive daily limit - up, and the delivery cost had a high premium compared to Brent [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, especially the situation in Iran, may affect the supply of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Participate in trading through options to control risks [8]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract continued to rise significantly. The market trading atmosphere was good [9]. - **Fundamentals**: An improvement in the pure - benzene supply - demand pattern, inventory reduction of styrene, and an improvement in downstream start - up rate but increased losses [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly in the short term, following the cost (crude oil) fluctuations. Go long on styrene at low prices in the second quarter [9]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 contract closed at 1219 yuan/ton, up 2.2% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Rising prices due to increased overseas costs, large supply, and inventory accumulation [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see due to increased supply and weak demand and low valuation [9].

资料来源：Wind,中原证券 -12% -5% 2% 9% 16% 22% 29% 36% 2025.03 2025.07 2025.10 2026.03 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 4,122.68 | -1.43 | | 深证成指 | | 14,022.39 | -3.07 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,655.90 | -1.54 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 4,540.70 | -1.90 | | 中证 | 500 | 8,281.61 | -4.35 | | 中证 | 1000 | 6,116.76 | 0.33 | | 国证 | 2000 | 7,801.23 | 0.58 | | 资料来源：Wind ...

| 股票代码：600438 | 股票简称：通威股份 | 公告编号：2026-010 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：110085 | 债券简称：通 22 转债 | | 通威股份有限公司 关于筹划发行股份及支付现金购买资产并募集配套资金事 项的停牌进展公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 特此公告。 通威股份有限公司 董事会 2026 年 3 月 4 日 因本次交易尚处于筹划阶段，有关事项存在不确定性，为了维护投资者利益， 避免造成公司股价异常波动，根据上海证券交易所相关规定，经公司申请，公司 股票、可转债债券以及可转债转股自 2026 年 2 月 25 日（星期三）开市起开始停 牌，预计停牌时间不超过 10 个交易日。具体内容详见公司于 2026 年 2 月 25 日在 上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）披露的《通威股份有限公司关于筹划发行 股份及支付现金购买资产并募集配套资金事项的停牌公告》（公告编号：2026-0 09）。 截至本公告披露日，公司及有关各方正在积极推 ...

通威股份有限公司 关于对外提供担保的进展公告 股票代码：600438 股票简称：通威股份 公告编号：2026-011 债券代码：110085 债券简称：通 22 转债 公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重 大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 被担保人名称： 2026 年 2 月 1 日—2026 年 2 月 28 日期间（以下简称"本次期间"）公司担保事项被 担保人均为非上市公司关联人。被担保人如下：公司下属 3 家全资子公司：通威电力 工程（成都）有限公司、通威太阳能（盐城）有限公司、越南通威有限责任公司；公 司下属 1 家控股子公司：通威（海南）水产食品有限公司；公司部分客户。 本次期间担保金额及已实际为其提供的担保余额： 本次期间，公司及下属子公司相互提供担保金额为 2.45 亿元；公司子公司通威农 业融资担保有限公司（以提供担保为主营业务的持有金融牌照的公司子公司，以下简 称"农业担保公司"）为客户提供担保的担保责任金额为 1.04 亿元。 截至 2026 年 2 月 28 日，公司及下属子公司相互提供担保实际余额为 439.68 ...

2026年03月03日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周一贵金属市场冲高回落，以伦敦金计价的国际金价涨 0.82%至 5382 美元/盎司，以伦敦银计价 的国际银价 4.84%至 89.28 美元/盎司。 基本面：特朗普称不达目标不停战，不排除"必要时"对伊朗派遣美军地面部队；伊朗高官拉里贾尼表示不 会与美国进行谈判；卡塔尔企业遇袭后暂停全球最大 LNG 出口厂生产；美国联邦上诉法院驳回特朗普政府关 税退税延期相关请求；美国 2 月 ISM 制造业指数连续两个月扩张，价格指数飙升至近四年新高。国内黄金 ETF 小幅流出；COMEX 黄金库存为 1031.6 吨，-4.7 吨；上期所黄金库存为 105.1 吨，维持不变，SPDR 黄金 ETF 持仓为1101.3吨，维持不变，；伦敦黄金库存1月底9155.8吨，12月底为 9103吨；COMEX白银库存为11120.3 吨，-86.1 吨；上期所白银库存为 309.4 吨，+2.8 吨；iShares 白银 ETF 持仓为 15902.2 吨，-90.2 吨；金交 所白银上周库存 450 吨，-43 吨 ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 1、据央视新闻，石油输出国组织（欧佩克）1 日发表声明说，8 个主要产 油国决定 4 月日均增产 20.6 万桶。沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯、伊拉克、阿联 酋、科威特、哈萨克斯坦、阿尔及利亚和阿曼的代表当天举行线上会议， 讨论国际石油市场形势及前景。 2、2 月 28 日，人形机器人与具身智能标准化（HEIS）年会在北京经济 技术开发区举办。会上，我国首个国家级人形机器人与具身智能标准体系 ——《人形机器人与具身智能标准体系（2026 版）》正式发布。该体系紧 扣产业发展现状与未来趋势，覆盖基础共性、类脑与智算、肢体与部组件、 整机与系统、应用、安全等全产业链环节，填补了国内人形机器人与具身 智能领域标准体系的空白，引领人形机器人与具身智能产业标准化发展。 3、3 月 2 日，千问首款 AI 硬件"千问 AI 眼镜"正式上线，开启线上线 下全渠道预约。该产品将于 3 月 8 日在中国市场现货发售，并于 2026 年 内登陆全球市场。据悉，千问 AI 眼镜还将全面接入千问 APP，首批点外 ...

2026 年 03 月 02 日 行业展望 看好/维持 电力设备及新能源 电力设备及新能源 新能源+AI 展望（第 1 期 20260208-20260228）：重视上游的弹 性，AI+新能源持续带动装备需求 ◼ 走势比较 ◼ 子行业评级 电站设备Ⅱ 无评级 电气设备 无评级 (20%) (6%) 8% 22% 36% 50% 25/3/3 25/5/14 25/7/25 25/10/5 25/12/16 26/2/26 电力设备及新能源 沪深300 | 电站设备Ⅱ | 无评级 | | --- | --- | | 电气设备 | 无评级 | | 电源设备 | 无评级 | | 新 能 源 动 力 | 无评级 | | 系统 | | ◼ 推荐公司及评级 相关研究报告 <<【太平洋新能源】新能源+AI 周报 （第 42 期 20260201-20260207）：重 视主产业链布局，重视固态电池、太 空光伏等主题>>--2026-02-08 <<【太平洋新能源】新能源+AI 周报 （第 41 期 20260125-20260131）：重 视中下游龙头机会>>--2026-02-02 <<【太平洋新能源】新能源+AI 周报 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2026 年 03 月 02 日 相关研究 《数据中心供配电设备行业跟踪：海外主要云 厂商资本开支持续增长，DRAM 价格小幅回落》 2026-02-09 《光储行业跟踪：全国性储能容量电价机制出 台，储能系统价格持续上涨》2026-02-09 《锂电行业跟踪：碳酸锂价格下行，储能电芯 均价上行》2026-02-09 《数据中心供配电设备行业跟踪：甲骨文资本 开支环比高增，DRAM 价格小幅回落》 2026-02-03 《锂电行业跟踪：碳酸锂价格下跌，储能电芯 均价持续上涨》2026-02-03 朱攀 S0820525070001 021-32229888-25527 zhupan@ajzq.com 电力设备 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 联系人 陆嘉怡 S0820124120008 021-32229888-25521 lujiayi@ajzq.com 行业及产业 1 月国内新型储能新增投运装机规模同 比高增，TOPCon 双玻组件价格稳定 ——光储行业跟踪 强于大市 投资要点： 排产：1）光伏组件：据 InfoLin ...

电力设备及新能源 2026 年 3 月 2 日 行业周报 证券分析师 | 李梦强 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060525090001 | | | LIMENGQIANG340@pingan.com.cn | | 皮秀 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060517070004 | | | PIXIU809@pingan.com.cn | | 张之尧 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060524070005 | | | ZHANGZHIYAO757@pingan.com.cn | | 田梦贤 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060526010001 | | | TIANMENGXIAN968@pingan.com.cn | 平安观点： 本周（2026.2.24-2026.2.27）新能源细分板块行情回顾。风电指数上涨 6.06%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 4.98 个百分点。截至本周，风电板块 PE_TTM 估值约 24.55 倍。本周申万光伏设备指数（801735.SI）上涨 1.88%，其中，申万光伏电池组件指数上涨 2.95%，申万光伏加工设备指 数上 ...