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纺织与服装行业周报:多家海外运动公司上调全年指引,奢侈品增速进一步放缓
Haitong Securities· 2024-10-29 10:40
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - Recent performance of several overseas sports companies has led to upward revisions of their full-year guidance, while luxury goods revenue growth is slowing down. Companies like Deckers and Skechers have reported better-than-expected quarterly results and raised their revenue and profit forecasts for the year. In contrast, luxury brands such as LVMH and Kering have seen a decline in revenue growth due to weak consumption from Chinese customers [2][5][6] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - Deckers reported a 20.1% increase in revenue to $1.31 billion for FY25Q2, with a net profit increase of 35.7% to $240 million, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by 9% and 28.7% respectively. The company's direct-to-consumer and distribution channels both achieved over 20% year-on-year growth [3] - Skechers' revenue for 24Q3 increased by 15.9% to $2.35 billion, with a net profit increase of 32.9% to $190 million. However, inventory levels rose by 23.5% year-on-year, primarily due to high inventory levels in China [4] Market Trends - Adidas has revised its full-year revenue growth forecast to 10% (previously high single-digit growth) and expects an operating profit of €1.2 billion, a significant increase from the previous estimate of €1 billion. Deckers anticipates a 12% revenue increase for FY2025, with HOKA brand revenue growth expected at 24% [4] - Luxury brands are experiencing a decline in revenue growth, with Hermès, LVMH, and Kering reporting year-on-year changes of +10.1%, -4.4%, and -15.2% respectively for 24Q3, which is below Bloomberg consensus expectations [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on brands with stable performance or those that are expected to bottom out, such as Bosideng and Tabo. On the manufacturing side, companies like Shenzhou International and Yuanyuan Group are recommended due to their resilience and ability to maintain supplier shares among core customers [6][21]
华工科技:公司季报点评:业绩稳健增长,数通光模块快速放量
Haitong Securities· 2024-10-29 08:11
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 9.002 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.42%, with a net profit of 938 million yuan, up 15.19% year-on-year [5] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.802 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71.27% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.47% [5] - The company is focusing on strategic inventory buildup to meet order growth and manage supply chain fluctuations, resulting in a significant increase in inventory levels [6] - The company has expanded its global operations with new factories in Vietnam and Thailand, while maintaining effective cost control [7] Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 13.082 billion yuan, 16.199 billion yuan, and 18.614 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 1.302 billion yuan, 1.692 billion yuan, and 2.092 billion yuan [6][10] - The gross margin is expected to be 22.8% in 2024, improving to 24.4% by 2026 [10] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.30 yuan in 2024, increasing to 2.08 yuan by 2026 [10] Business Segment Performance - The optical device series is expected to generate revenues of 4.728 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 51.99% [8] - The laser processing equipment and intelligent manufacturing line is projected to achieve revenues of 3.785 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 18.66% [8] - The sensitive components segment is anticipated to reach revenues of 3.902 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.13% [8]
芒果超媒:公司季报点评:有效会员突破7000万,重点综艺、剧集储备丰富,后续业绩增长潜力大
Haitong Securities· 2024-10-29 08:10
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, with total revenue of 10.278 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.85%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.444 billion yuan, down 18.96% year-on-year, primarily due to changes in corporate income tax policies [4][7] - The effective membership of the company has surpassed 70 million, with significant contributions from popular shows like "Singer 2024". The international app downloads increased from 130 million to 210 million, with a target of 260 million for the year [5][6] - The company has a rich reserve of key variety shows and dramas, which are expected to drive future performance growth. Upcoming shows include "Women's Reasoning Society 2" and "Time Music Conference 4" [6] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 10.278 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.85% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.444 billion yuan, down 18.96% year-on-year. The third quarter revenue was 3.318 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.14% year-on-year, with a net profit of 380 million yuan, down 27.41% year-on-year [4][7] - The company expects EPS for 2024-2026 to be 1.00, 1.16, and 1.37 yuan per share, respectively. The estimated reasonable value range for 2025 is 34.80 to 40.60 yuan per share [7][11] Revenue Forecast - The company's revenue forecast for 2024 is 14.777 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase of 1.0%. The revenue from internet video is expected to be 8.836 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.60% [9][11] - The advertising revenue is projected to decline to 3.426 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 3.00% year-on-year, while membership revenue is expected to grow to 5.410 billion yuan, an increase of 25.37% [9][11] Market Comparison - The company is compared with peers such as iQIYI and Netflix, with a projected P/E ratio for 2025 of 30-35 times, indicating a competitive valuation in the market [10][11]
宋城演艺:公司季报点评:3Q24收入同比下滑5%,培育项目表现出色
Haitong Securities· 2024-10-29 07:17
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 20.13 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.5%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.08 billion yuan, up 28.0% year-on-year [6] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 8.36 billion yuan, a decline of 4.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.57 billion yuan, down 5.6% year-on-year [6] - The company has shown strong performance in its cultivation projects, particularly in Xi'an and Foshan, while mature projects have maintained good revenue despite facing challenges [7] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is expected to achieve a net profit of 10.79 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1083.3% [8] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.41 yuan, 0.48 yuan, and 0.52 yuan respectively [8] - The company's gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 71.9%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 19.26 billion yuan in 2023 to 23.99 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.6% [9] - The net profit is expected to rise significantly from a loss of 110 million yuan in 2023 to a profit of 1.08 billion yuan in 2024 [9] Cost and Expense Analysis - The selling, general, and administrative expenses have increased, with the selling expense ratio at 5.4%, management expense ratio at 5.0%, and R&D expense ratio at 1.3% for Q3 2024 [7] - The increase in selling expenses is attributed to higher advertising investments across various scenic spots [7] Market Position and Valuation - The company is considered one of the few listed firms in the industry with replicable expansion capabilities, with a target price range of 10.25 yuan to 12.30 yuan per share based on a PE ratio of 25-30 times for 2024 [8]
永艺股份:公司季报点评:24Q3收入同增39%,新客户新渠道加快放量
Haitong Securities· 2024-10-29 07:17
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.39 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 35.6%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 220 million yuan, up 6.5% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items also reached 220 million yuan, increasing by 14.9% year-on-year [5][6]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.8%, and a net profit of 98 million yuan, up 42.3% year-on-year. The revenue growth is attributed to improved external demand and accelerated volume from new customers, channels, and projects [5][6]. - The company is actively pursuing a global layout strategy for its export business, with ongoing construction of production bases in Vietnam and Romania. The Vietnam base has begun shipping to the U.S., and the first phase of construction is underway [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3.39 billion yuan, a 35.6% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 220 million yuan, a 6.5% increase year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was also 220 million yuan, reflecting a 14.9% increase year-on-year [5][6]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.34 billion yuan, a 38.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 98 million yuan, a 42.3% increase year-on-year [5][6]. Profitability and Margins - The comprehensive gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 22.68%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points. The period expense ratio was 14.85%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points [5][6]. - The company’s revenue growth is supported by new customer acquisition and channel expansion, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [5][6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 330 million yuan and 400 million yuan for 2024 and 2025, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 11% and 20% [6][7]. - The estimated reasonable value range for the company is between 11 to 13 yuan based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11 to 13 times for 2024 [6][7].
上海钢联:公司季报点评:数据资源入表开启,产业数据服务前景广阔
Haitong Securities· 2024-10-29 06:11
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 20.251 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 26.38%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 43 million yuan, down 10.02% year-on-year [5] - The decline in profit is primarily due to increased taxes and impacts related to government subsidies [5] - The company is transitioning to recognize data resources as intangible assets, which is expected to enhance the value of its data elements [6] - The company has received recognition for its innovative applications in data elements, winning first place in a national competition [7] - Future profit forecasts for the company are 203 million yuan, 263 million yuan, and 307 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with expected growth rates of -15.5%, 29.7%, and 16.4% [8] Financial Performance - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 86.314 billion yuan, with a slight decrease to 81.792 billion yuan in 2024, and a further decrease to 81.679 billion yuan in 2025 [9] - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 240 million yuan, with a forecast of 203 million yuan for 2024, and an increase to 263 million yuan in 2025 [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is expected to be 0.63 yuan, increasing to 0.82 yuan in 2025 and 0.95 yuan in 2026 [12] Business Segmentation - The industrial data service segment reported revenue of 198 million yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.98%, while the steel trading service segment generated revenue of 20.053 billion yuan, down 26.56% year-on-year [5][11] - The overall revenue for the company is projected to grow at a rate of 12.73% in 2023, followed by a decline of 5.24% in 2024, and a slight recovery in subsequent years [11] Market Comparison - The company’s stock closed at 25.88 yuan, with a market capitalization of 83.29 billion yuan [1] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to be 36-40 times for 2025, with a reasonable value range of 29.52-32.80 yuan [8]
华凯易佰:公司季报点评:3Q并表通拓收入增48%,新兴平台起量
Haitong Securities· 2024-10-29 06:11
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 47.72% year-on-year in Q3 2024, with total revenue reaching 2.596 billion yuan. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 40.01% to 55 million yuan due to increased costs associated with business expansion and acquisitions [5][6] - The company has successfully integrated Tongtuo Technology, which contributed 677 million yuan in revenue for Q3 2024, marking a turnaround to profitability. Meanwhile, Yibai Network's revenue grew by 9.2% year-on-year to 1.91 billion yuan [5][6] - The company is actively expanding into emerging platforms, with notable revenues from Temu (91.58 million yuan), TikTok (110 million yuan), and Walmart (100 million yuan) [7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 6.115 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.75%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 189 million yuan, down 36.74% year-on-year [5][6] - The company expects revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 9.04 billion yuan, 12.149 billion yuan, and 13.912 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 38.7%, 34.4%, and 14.5% [8][11] - The projected net profit for the same years is 336 million yuan, 459 million yuan, and 581 million yuan, with growth rates of 1.1%, 36.8%, and 26.4% respectively [8][11] Revenue Breakdown - The company's revenue from cross-border e-commerce is projected to reach 7.937 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 39.4% [9] - The comprehensive service revenue from cross-border e-commerce is expected to grow to 1.1 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 40% increase [9] Valuation and Market Position - The company is valued at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18-22 times for 2024, suggesting a reasonable market capitalization range of 6.047 billion to 7.391 billion yuan [7][8] - The average P/E ratio of comparable companies is around 20.3 times for 2024 [10]
沪农商行2024年三季度业绩点评:营收利润同比双升,稳健财富管理体系持续推进
Haitong Securities· 2024-10-29 06:11
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year increase in both revenue and profit for Q3 2024, with revenue up by 0.6% and net profit attributable to shareholders up by 1.2% [4] - The bank's wealth management system is steadily advancing, optimizing deposit maturity structure while reducing liability costs [4] - Asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio holding steady at 0.97% in Q3 2024 [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue increased by 0.3% year-on-year, and net profit rose by 0.8% [4] - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio improved by 1.26 percentage points to 14.51% [4] - The bank's savings AUM balance reached 546.43 billion yuan, a growth of 7.5%, while non-savings AUM was 239.23 billion yuan, up by 0.7% [4] Interest Margin and Income - The net interest margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1.47%, a decrease of 2 basis points compared to the first half of 2024 [5] - The bank's net interest income decreased by 4.0% year-on-year in Q3 2024 [5] - The report predicts EPS for 2024-2026 to be 1.29, 1.35, and 1.42 yuan, with net profit growth rates of 2.69%, 4.23%, and 5.44% respectively [5] Valuation Metrics - The reasonable value range for the company is estimated to be between 8.42 and 9.06 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 6.51-7.01 times for 2024 [5] - The bank's PB valuation for 2024 is set at 0.65 times, compared to a peer average of 0.57 times [5] Comparative Analysis - The bank's average ROE for 2023 is 11.33%, with projected values of 10.51%, 9.89%, and 9.47% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6] - The bank's non-performing loan coverage ratio is projected to be 362.69% in 2024, indicating a strong buffer against potential loan losses [6]
锐明技术:海外业务结硕果,利润进入加速释放期
Haitong Securities· 2024-10-29 06:11
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][9] Core Views - The company has achieved significant revenue and profit growth in the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue reaching 1.918 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55%, and net profit of 220 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 171% [5][9] - The company is expanding its overseas business with a customized market strategy, establishing local subsidiaries and offices, and enhancing local employee ratios to improve operational proximity [6][9] - The company has improved its research and development efficiency and is controlling expenses effectively, which is expected to accelerate profit release [7][9] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 766 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66%, and net profit of 97 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 360% [5][9] - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 2.567 billion yuan, with net profit expected to reach 295 million yuan, and EPS forecasted at 1.68 yuan [8][9] - The gross margin for the core business segments has shown an upward trend, with commercial vehicle monitoring systems at 47.99% and general monitoring products at 62.99% [6][9] Market Comparison - The company’s stock closed at 46.00 yuan, with a market capitalization of 8.086 billion yuan [2][10] - The company is compared favorably against peers, with a projected P/E ratio of 27.45 for 2024, indicating a competitive valuation [10][11]
新集能源:公司季报点评:24Q3归母净利环增12%,煤电新能源转型增效稳健有力
Haitong Securities· 2024-10-29 06:09
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xinjie Energy (601918) is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's performance in coal and electricity generation is stable, with a focus on transformation and efficiency improvements in the coal-electricity integration [4][6] - The company achieved a net profit of 6.49 billion yuan in Q3, reflecting a 12% increase quarter-on-quarter [4] - The report anticipates that the company's net profit will grow to 23.4 billion yuan in 2024, with an estimated EPS of 0.90 yuan [7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 91.9 billion yuan and a net profit of 18.2 billion yuan, both down 5% year-on-year [4] - In Q3 alone, the company generated a net profit of 6.49 billion yuan, which is a 12.2% increase from the previous quarter [4] - The average selling price of coal for the first three quarters was 562 yuan per ton, up 3.1% year-on-year [5] Coal Business Analysis - The coal production and sales volume for the first three quarters were 13.88 million tons and 13.79 million tons, respectively, down 6.7% and 9.5% year-on-year [5] - The average sales cost of coal was 341 yuan per ton, an increase of 2.1% year-on-year [5] - The gross profit from coal business for the first three quarters was 30.5 billion yuan, down 5.2% year-on-year [5] Power Generation Analysis - The company’s electricity sales volume in Q3 increased significantly by 86% quarter-on-quarter, with a total generation of 39.94 billion kWh [6] - The average on-grid electricity price decreased by 4% to 0.3992 yuan per kWh in Q3 [6] - The company is progressing steadily with its coal and renewable energy projects, which are expected to enhance its power generation capacity and profitability [6] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 23.4 billion yuan, 23.6 billion yuan, and 31.1 billion yuan, respectively [7] - The report estimates a reasonable valuation range for the company at 9.02 to 10.82 yuan based on a PE ratio of 10 to 12 times for 2024 [7] - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory due to its coal-electricity integration strategy [7]