1 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 2024 年上半年煤炭行业信用分析及展望 联合资信 工商评级四部 |刘莉婕 邓淇匀 2024 年上半年，受安全监察形势较严影响，国内煤炭产量增速放缓，但原煤产量仍 处于高位，煤炭进口量亦保持增长。火力发电量同比保持稳定，而下游钢铁、建材行业 对煤炭的需求支撑不足，煤炭消费增速回落，导致国内煤炭价格震荡回落；煤炭行业盈 利规模较上年同期有所下降，融资需求加大，煤炭企业债券发行规模明显增加。 目前，由于煤炭行业政策仍以保障能源供应稳定以及价格合理可控为基调，预计 2024 年全年国内煤炭产量将保持稳中有增，煤炭供需将维持供略大于求的状态，在需求逐步 恢复的环境下，煤炭价格预计企稳。2024 年下半年至 2025 年上半年煤炭行业到期债券 金额不大，且到期债券发行主体的信用等级以 AAA 为主，行业偿债风险可控，但仍需关 注个别债务负担沉重的煤炭企业在煤炭价格波动情形下风险暴露的可能。 一、 2024 年上半年煤炭行业运行情况 2024 年上半年，受安全监察形势较严影响，山西原煤产量同比有所减少， 国内煤炭产量增速放缓，煤炭产地进一步向晋陕蒙及新疆地区集中；煤炭进口 ...

2024 年上半年钢铁行业信用风险总结与展望 联合资信 工商评级四部 |钢铁行业组 2024 年上半年，下游用钢需求进一步分化，受地产投资持续下行拖累，钢铁行业需 求端仍延续疲软态势，供给端小幅收缩，供需失衡导致钢材价格持续下行；同时，原燃 料价格虽有所下降但不及钢价降幅，行业盈利进一步下滑。 企业层面，由于行业景气度持续低迷，钢铁企业盈利指标同比下滑，对外融资需求 有所增加，钢铁企业资产负债率上升。由于债券市场资金面较为宽松，钢铁发债企业整 体信用资质好，钢铁债券信用利差大幅收窄，钢铁债券发行规模和存续规模均明显回升。 展望下半年，钢铁行业预计将继续呈现供需双弱的格局，企业经营业绩难有明显改 善。考虑到钢铁发债企业主要为高信用等级的央企和地方国企，且融资渠道较为畅通， 行业整体信用风险可控。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、行业运行情况 2024 年 1―8 月，国内粗钢产量同比小幅下降，出口规模同比大幅增长；钢材 价格震荡下行，钢铁行业企业利润空间受到挤压，行业效益显著下降，资产负债率 呈上升趋势。 2024 年 1―8 月，中国生铁、粗钢和钢材产量分别为 5.78 亿吨、6.91 ...

www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 2024 年房地产行业运行半年报 联合资信 工商评级三部 2024 年上半年，国内房地产市场整体仍处低位运行，行业数据表现低迷， 宽松政策持续释放下销售降幅有所收窄，但库存去化压力持续加大，短期内 去库存仍是行业重点。融资层面继续推动已出台金融政策的落地见效，但行 业融资未显著改善，房企存活关键仍在于销售端的回暖和自身造血能力的恢 复，大部分房企生存压力仍较大。宽松政策仅阶段性刺激了市场需求，持续 性的需求端信心修复仍需一定时间。 一、房地产行业回顾 （一）政策端 在房地产市场供求关系发生重大变化的大背景下，中央及地方以"去库存"作为 政策导向，延续宽松态势且宽松力度不断加大。预计 2024 年下半年，"去库存"仍为 政策实施重点，并继续推动已出台政策的落地见效。 自 2023 年 7 月中央政治局会议定调房地产市场供求关系发生重大变化以来，政 策端持续推动市场热度的复苏及购房信心的恢复。2024 年 3 月，政府工作报告继续 将有效防范房地产风险作为工作重点，提出要标本兼治化解房地产风险，对不同所有 制房地产企业合理融资需求要一视同仁给予支持；国务院常务会议 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the construction industry, with a focus on improving liquidity pressures for construction companies in the future [1]. Core Insights - The construction industry experienced a slowdown in output growth in the first half of 2024, with new contract amounts declining year-on-year, while the growth rate of existing contracts outpaced new contracts [4][28]. - The government continues to implement policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to provide support for infrastructure investment and the construction industry [1][28]. - The quality of business receivables has declined, leading to increased liquidity pressures for construction companies, particularly local state-owned enterprises [1][6][28]. - The issuance of short-term bonds by construction companies has decreased significantly, although higher-rated enterprises remain the primary issuers [1][20][28]. Industry Policy Overview - The "14th Five-Year" development plan emphasizes a shift from quantity expansion to quality improvement in the construction industry, with ongoing policy adjustments to facilitate industry transformation [2][3]. Industry Development Status - In the first half of 2024, the total output value of the construction industry reached 138,311.86 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.60%, but a decline in growth rate compared to the previous year [4][28]. - New contracts signed in the construction industry totaled 149,125.06 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.41% year-on-year, indicating weak industry growth [4][28]. - The total amount of contracts in hand reached 533,035.25 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.51%, driven by factors such as project suspensions and reduced government investment [5][28]. Financial Performance - The total operating revenue of construction companies decreased by 3.67% year-on-year, with local state-owned enterprises experiencing the largest revenue decline [6][28]. - The cash flow deficit from operating activities for construction companies expanded by 154.95% year-on-year, primarily due to declining receivables quality [13][28]. - The overall debt burden for construction companies has increased, with the asset-liability ratio rising by 1.09 percentage points compared to the previous year [10][28]. Downstream Industry Development - National fixed asset investment showed a slight year-on-year increase of 3.90% in the first half of 2024, supported by ongoing infrastructure projects [15][28]. - Real estate development investment decreased by 10.10% year-on-year, with new construction areas continuing to decline significantly [16][28]. - The government has introduced various policies to stabilize the real estate market, which are expected to positively impact the construction industry [17][28]. Bond Issuance and Interest Rate Analysis - In the second quarter of 2024, the total bond issuance by construction companies decreased year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, with a notable decline in short-term bonds [20][28]. - The average bond issuance interest rates for construction companies have shown a downward trend due to a relatively loose credit environment [24][28].

www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 穿越产能出清周期：2021-2024 年锂电材料行业变 革与竞争要素分析 ——以三元前驱体行业为例 联合资信 工商评级一部 王佳晨子 张乾 摘要 本文以三元前驱体行业为例，研究了 2021－2024 年锂电材料行业竞争要素随供需关系变化的 情况。2021 年以来，锂电材料行业受动力与储能需求带动快速发展，行业供需关系也先后经历了 供给不足、供需紧平衡和产能结构性过剩。2024 年以来，行业产能结构性过剩明显，并存在产能 出清预期。与此同时，中国出台政策限制新增产能，欧美等地也出台了一系列政策限制中国制造 的锂电产品及相关矿产在当地的应用，促使中国锂电企业加快海外产能建设及对上游矿产资源的 投资。此外，受宏观环境及资本市场影响，锂电企业融资难度有所提升，但融资需求仍然存在。 经分析得，在产能结构性过剩、国内政策限制产能、国外政策限制出口、部分锂电矿产资源依赖 进口、锂电企业融资渠道收紧的背景下，产品结构多元、全球化程度高、资金实力及融资能力强 的企业有望穿越产能出清周期。未来，锂电各细分领域的行业集中度有望进一步提升。 联合资信评估股份有限公司 China Li ...

www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 首提"止跌回稳"——9 月政治局会议房地产行 业相关政策点评 联合资信 工商评级三部 2024 年 9 月 26 日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势， 部署下一步经济工作。会议中对房地产行业提出了明确的政策要求，从控制 供应与促进需求等多角度发力，并首次提出促进房地产市场止跌回稳，对目 前已经持续下行三年的房地产市场来说信号意义重大，未来房地产市场供求 格局有望得到改善，行业整体信用水平有望得到恢复。 联合资信评估股份有限公司 China Lianhe Credit Rating Co. Ltd. 化、人民群众对优质住房的新期待，统筹研究消化存量房产和优化增量住房的政策措施，抓 紧构建房地产发展新模式，促进房地产高质量发展 资料来源：联合资信根据公开资料整理 2024 年 9 月 26 日，中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下 一步经济工作。会议中对房地产行业提出明确要求，并提出了更加积极明确的政策支 持。 今年以来，政治局会议中有三次提及房地产行业，对比过往有关房地产行业的表 述可以看出，9 月政治局会议对于房地产行业的表述更加 ...

Industry Overview - Yunnan Province has significant regional importance and abundant resources, with a growing economy and GDP per capita ranking in the lower-middle range nationally [2] - The province's industrial structure is continuously optimizing, with the tertiary sector being the main driver of economic growth [3] - Yunnan's transportation network is well-developed, with significant investments planned during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, exceeding 1.3 trillion yuan [3][4] - The province has rich natural resources, including water, coal, minerals, and solar energy, ranking high nationally in several categories [6] Economic and Fiscal Strength - Yunnan's GDP in 2023 reached 3,002.112 billion yuan, ranking 18th nationally, with a growth rate of 4.4% [6] - The tertiary sector contributed 51.8% to the GDP in 2023, with significant growth in high-tech industries and tourism [7] - Yunnan's general public budget revenue in 2023 was 214.944 billion yuan, with a fiscal self-sufficiency rate of 31.94% [15] - The province's government debt ratio and debt burden are relatively high, ranking 30th and 23rd nationally, respectively [16] Regional Economic Disparities - Economic development in Yunnan is uneven, with the central Kunming-centered urban agglomeration being the strongest [17] - Kunming's GDP accounted for 26.20% of the province's total in 2023, significantly higher than other regions [20] - Yuxi City leads in GDP per capita, while Zhaotong City ranks last [20] - The central urban agglomeration accounts for 50.49% of the province's population, with relatively high urbanization rates [21] Local Government Debt and Fiscal Conditions - Local government debt balances increased across all regions in 2023, with Yuxi, Kunming, Lijiang, Dehong, and Baoshan having the heaviest debt burdens [29] - Kunming and Yuxi have relatively higher fiscal self-sufficiency rates, while other regions rely heavily on upper-level subsidies [23][25] - Government debt ratios in most regions exceed 30%, with Yuxi, Kunming, Lijiang, Dehong, and Baoshan having debt ratios above 200% [30] Urban Investment Enterprises (UIEs) - As of June 2024, Yunnan has 45 UIEs with outstanding bonds, primarily concentrated in Kunming [33] - In 2023, Yunnan's UIEs issued 70 bonds totaling 55.368 billion yuan, with Kunming accounting for 90.43% of the issuance [36] - The net financing of UIEs in 2023 was negative, but turned positive in the first half of 2024, with Kunming and Pu'er contributing significantly [36] - Most UIEs face significant short-term debt repayment pressures, especially in Kunming, where large bond maturities are expected in Q4 2024 and 2025 [38] Debt Support and Fiscal Capacity - The ratio of "UIE total debt + local government debt" to "comprehensive fiscal capacity" ranges from 100% to 600%, with Kunming nearing 600% and Yuxi exceeding 300% [41] - Fiscal revenues in regions like Honghe, Baoshan, Lijiang, and Dehong provide limited support for debt repayment, with ratios exceeding 200% [41]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or region under review. Core Insights - Liaoning Province, located in Northeast China, is a significant old industrial base with key industries including equipment manufacturing, metallurgy, and petrochemicals. The province's economic total ranks in the middle of the country, while its per capita GDP is below the national average. In 2023, the province's general public budget revenue ranked 18th nationally, showing strong stability but a low fiscal self-sufficiency rate. The real estate market's downturn has led to a decline in government fund income, with substantial reliance on upper-level subsidies for local financial strength. The province faces high government debt and liability rates, but national policies supporting the revitalization of Northeast China present development opportunities [2][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Economic and Fiscal Strength of Liaoning Province - Liaoning Province is rich in mineral resources and has a well-established transportation system. It is a crucial old industrial base in China, with a GDP of 30,209.4 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a growth rate of 5.3%. The province's economic structure is shifting towards a more significant contribution from the tertiary sector, which accounted for 52.4% of the GDP in 2023 [3][5][7]. 2. Fiscal Situation and Debt - In 2023, Liaoning's general public budget revenue was 275.53 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.1%. The province's fiscal self-sufficiency rate was 41.91%, indicating a reliance on upper-level subsidies, which contributed 53.21% to local financial resources. The local government debt rate was 187.98%, ranking third nationally, indicating a heavy debt burden [10][11][13][28]. 3. Economic and Fiscal Strength of Cities in Liaoning Province - Economic development in Liaoning's cities is uneven, with Shenyang and Dalian showing significantly higher economic strength. In 2023, Shenyang and Dalian accounted for 29.11% and 27.01% of the province's GDP, respectively. The GDP growth rates among cities varied, with the lowest being 1.6% in Liaoyang and the highest at 6.1% in Shenyang [14][20][21]. 4. Debt Situation of Cities - By the end of 2023, all cities in Liaoning saw an increase in government debt compared to the previous year, with Dalian and Shenyang having the highest debt balances. The debt rates for cities like Panjin and Yingkou exceeded 400%, indicating significant financial pressure [27][28]. 5. City Investment and Financing - The number of bond-issuing urban investment enterprises in Liaoning is limited, primarily at the city level. In 2023, the issuance of bonds by these enterprises decreased, with a notable net outflow of financing. However, in early 2024, Shenyang's urban investment enterprises saw a significant increase in bond issuance, indicating a potential recovery in financing conditions [29][31].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or region under review. Core Insights - Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region is strategically important in China's western development strategy, with a relatively low economic scale and per capita GDP compared to national averages [2][3] - The region's government debt has been increasing, but remains at a lower level compared to other provinces, with a general debt ratio [13][15] - Economic growth in 2023 was observed across various cities in Ningxia, with significant disparities in economic size and fiscal strength, particularly with Yinchuan leading [2][16] - Ningxia's local government relies heavily on upper-level subsidies for its fiscal revenue, indicating a weak self-sufficiency in financial resources [13][22] Summary by Sections 1. Economic and Fiscal Strength of Ningxia - Ningxia's economy is characterized by a small total economic output and a per capita GDP that ranks in the lower tier nationally, with a GDP of 5314.95 billion yuan in 2023, growing at a rate of 6.6% [5][7] - The region has a stable industrial structure, with industrial growth being the primary driver of economic expansion, particularly in coal, electricity, and chemical industries [8][10] 2. Fiscal Situation and Debt - In 2023, Ningxia's general public budget revenue was 460.15 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 13.7%, while the government debt balance reached 1996.8 billion yuan, resulting in a debt ratio of 112.2% [14][15] - The fiscal self-sufficiency rate is low, with significant reliance on upper-level subsidies, which accounted for a substantial portion of the region's financial resources [13][22] 3. Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Cities in Ningxia - Yinchuan remains the economic leader among Ningxia's cities, with a GDP of 2685.63 billion yuan and a growth rate of 7.20% in 2023 [21][22] - The fiscal strength of cities varies significantly, with Yinchuan's public budget revenue leading at 197.76 billion yuan, while other cities lag behind [22][23] 4. Debt Situation of Cities - All cities in Ningxia have seen an increase in government debt, with Yinchuan having the highest debt ratio exceeding 150% [26][27] - The report indicates a focus on controlling new debt and actively resolving existing debt issues to mitigate risks [26][28] 5. City Investment Companies' Debt Repayment Capacity - Ningxia has a limited number of investment companies, primarily located in Yinchuan, with most having an AA+ credit rating [28][29] - The debt structure of these companies is primarily based on direct financing, with a significant portion of their debt supported by special refinancing bonds and loans [33][34]

2024 年上半年电力行业信用风险总结与展望 联合资信 工商评级四部 2024 年上半年，全国电力供应安全稳定，电力消费平稳较快增长，电力供需总体平衡。 综合考虑宏观经济、燃料供应、气候变化等因素，预计 2024 年全国电力供需形势总体紧平 衡，部分地区迎峰度夏期间供需形势偏紧。当前火电装机及电量占比仍较高，但受电力市场 化改革持续推进以及"碳达峰""碳中和"目标等因素影响，电源结构绿色低碳转型趋势明 显。其中，风电及太阳能发电将成为清洁能源电力快速发展的主要推动力。 企业层面，受益于煤炭价格回落以及上网电价维持较高水平，火电企业基本已实现扭亏， 但进入冬储阶段后仍面临一定成本控制压力。同期，伴随整体业务规模的扩大，清洁能源发 电企业资产和收入规模均有所提升，盈利能力和现金流稳定性保持良好水平。 信用债方面，电力行业发债企业主要为中央国有企业和地方国有企业，企业整体资质好， 融资渠道通畅且融资能力强。2024 年下半年，虽电力行业到期兑付债券规模较大，但行业整 体偿债风险可控。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、2024 年上半年电力行业运行情况 2024 年上半年，全国电力供需总体平衡， ...