Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or region under review. Core Insights - Liaoning Province, located in Northeast China, is a significant old industrial base with key industries including equipment manufacturing, metallurgy, and petrochemicals. The province's economic total ranks in the middle of the country, while its per capita GDP is below the national average. In 2023, the province's general public budget revenue ranked 18th nationally, showing strong stability but a low fiscal self-sufficiency rate. The real estate market's downturn has led to a decline in government fund income, with substantial reliance on upper-level subsidies for local financial strength. The province faces high government debt and liability rates, but national policies supporting the revitalization of Northeast China present development opportunities [2][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Economic and Fiscal Strength of Liaoning Province - Liaoning Province is rich in mineral resources and has a well-established transportation system. It is a crucial old industrial base in China, with a GDP of 30,209.4 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a growth rate of 5.3%. The province's economic structure is shifting towards a more significant contribution from the tertiary sector, which accounted for 52.4% of the GDP in 2023 [3][5][7]. 2. Fiscal Situation and Debt - In 2023, Liaoning's general public budget revenue was 275.53 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.1%. The province's fiscal self-sufficiency rate was 41.91%, indicating a reliance on upper-level subsidies, which contributed 53.21% to local financial resources. The local government debt rate was 187.98%, ranking third nationally, indicating a heavy debt burden [10][11][13][28]. 3. Economic and Fiscal Strength of Cities in Liaoning Province - Economic development in Liaoning's cities is uneven, with Shenyang and Dalian showing significantly higher economic strength. In 2023, Shenyang and Dalian accounted for 29.11% and 27.01% of the province's GDP, respectively. The GDP growth rates among cities varied, with the lowest being 1.6% in Liaoyang and the highest at 6.1% in Shenyang [14][20][21]. 4. Debt Situation of Cities - By the end of 2023, all cities in Liaoning saw an increase in government debt compared to the previous year, with Dalian and Shenyang having the highest debt balances. The debt rates for cities like Panjin and Yingkou exceeded 400%, indicating significant financial pressure [27][28]. 5. City Investment and Financing - The number of bond-issuing urban investment enterprises in Liaoning is limited, primarily at the city level. In 2023, the issuance of bonds by these enterprises decreased, with a notable net outflow of financing. However, in early 2024, Shenyang's urban investment enterprises saw a significant increase in bond issuance, indicating a potential recovery in financing conditions [29][31].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable credit risk outlook for the power industry, with overall credit risk being controllable [24]. Core Viewpoints - The power supply in China is secure and stable, with a balanced supply-demand situation expected for 2024, despite some regional tightness during peak summer periods [1][24]. - The transition towards a greener and low-carbon power structure is evident, driven by the continuous advancement of market reforms and carbon neutrality goals [1][24]. - The profitability of thermal power companies has improved due to falling coal prices and sustained high grid prices, although they still face cost control pressures during the winter storage phase [1][24]. - The clean energy sector, particularly wind and solar power, is rapidly expanding, contributing to the overall growth in power generation capacity [1][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Industry Operation in H1 2024 - National electricity consumption reached 4.66 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, with significant growth in high-tech manufacturing and internet data services [3][5]. - The second industry accounted for 65.9% of total electricity consumption, with notable increases in high-tech sectors such as electrical machinery and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing [5][6]. 2. Power Production and Supply - Total investment in the power sector was 598.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, with grid investment rising by 23.7% [6][7]. - New installed capacity reached 153 million kW, with solar power accounting for 67.1% of new installations [6][7]. - The average utilization hours for various power generation types decreased, but overall generation increased by 5.2% to 4.44 trillion kWh [8]. 3. Policy and Dynamics - The government has issued guidelines to enhance energy storage and smart grid capabilities, supporting the integration of renewable energy [9][10]. - New policies aim to ensure the full purchase of renewable energy and promote the development of wind and solar projects in rural areas [11][12]. 4. Financial Performance of Power Companies - In H1 2024, the power sector saw a significant bond issuance of 289.5 billion yuan, primarily from high-credit-rated companies [14][15]. - The average cost of short-term financing bonds decreased to approximately 1.90%-2.00% [15][17]. - The overall financial health of power companies improved, with increased revenue and profitability driven by favorable coal prices and high grid prices [17][19]. 5. Credit Risk Outlook - The overall credit risk for the power industry remains manageable, supported by strong financing capabilities and government backing for state-owned enterprises [24].

2024 年半年度再保险行业分析 联合资信金融评级一部 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 2023 年，直保公司保费收入整体实现较快发展，对再保险行业发展起推动作用。 再保险业务基于原保险合同展开，再保险业务覆盖直保公司人身险及财产险全险种业 务，直保行业的发展对再保险行业发展具有推动作用。人身险行业方面，2023 年，在 预定利率调整预期及居民购买储蓄型险种需求上升的背景下，储蓄类寿险业务实现较 好发展，带动人身险公司保费收入实现较好增长，但其中医疗、重疾等保障型产品增 长较为乏力；三季度以来，随着高预定利率产品的陆续停售，人身险公司保险业务收 入增速有所下降；同时 2023 年 8 月以来，为进一步规范银行代理渠道业务，监管在 人身险公司银保渠道施行"报行合一"，要求保险产品佣金等实际费用与备案材料保 持一致，银保渠道手续费用下降且部分保险公司在制度实施初期短暂暂停银保新单业 务开展，"报行合一"的实施对人身险公司银保业务保费收入及对市场竞争情况影响 需保持关注。财产险行业方面，2023 年以来，在国内新车销量快速增长的带动下，车 险业务保费收入稳步增长；但受政策变动因素影响，责任险及健康 ...

2024 年半年度人身保险行业分析 联合资信 金融评级一部 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 2023 年，在预定利率调整预期及居民购买储蓄型险种需求上升的背景下，人身 险公司保费收入实现较好增长；随着高预定利率产品的陆续停售，需关注未来人身险 公司原保险保费收入变动情况，同时"报行合一"要求对人身险公司银保业务保费收 入影响及对市场竞争情况影响需保持关注。2023 年初，得益于市场对预定利率调整 的预期，市场对寿险产品需求得到一定程度的集中释放；同时，在资本市场波动、利 率持续下行的外部环境影响下，居民购买储蓄型保险产品需求亦有所上升，上述因素 叠加影响，2023 年上半年人身险公司原保费收入增速较上年同期大幅提升；三季度 以来，随着高预定利率产品的陆续停售，人身险公司原保险保费收入增速有所下降。 另一方面，2023 年 8 月以来，为进一步规范银行代理渠道业务，监管在人身险公司 银保渠道施行"报行合一"要求，要求保险产品佣金等实际费用与备案材料保持一致， 部分保险公司在施行上述要求的过程中，暂停了银保新单业务的开展；同时，在"报 行合一"要求下，银保渠道费用下降可能会影响相关业务开展积极性 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable growth in the property insurance sector, with a focus on the performance of various insurance types, particularly auto insurance, which remains the primary revenue source for property insurers [2][3]. Core Insights - In 2023, the property insurance sector saw a total insurance business income of 15,868 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.73%, although the growth rate decreased by 1.98 percentage points compared to the previous year [2][3]. - The auto insurance segment generated a premium income of 8,673 billion yuan, marking a growth of 5.64% year-on-year, while non-auto insurance segments like liability and health insurance experienced slower growth rates due to policy changes [2][3]. - The market concentration in the property insurance industry remains high, with the top three insurers holding over 60% of the market share, indicating a stable competitive landscape [2][3][6]. Summary by Sections Premium Income and Growth - In 2024 H1, property insurers achieved a premium income of 9,176 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.53%, with auto insurance contributing 4,311 billion yuan, up 2.77% [3][6]. - Health insurance premiums reached 1,475 billion yuan, growing by 12.08%, while agricultural insurance premiums were 1,063 billion yuan, up 6.30% [3]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the increasing contribution of non-auto insurance to overall premium income, driven by rising public awareness and favorable policies [2][3]. - The competitive landscape remains stable, with leading insurers maintaining their market positions despite regulatory changes and market fluctuations [2][3][6]. Investment and Financial Performance - Property insurers' investment income has shown improvement, with a comprehensive investment return rate of 2.87% in 2023, higher than the previous year [5][6]. - The total investment balance of property insurers reached 2.02 trillion yuan by the end of 2023, with bonds and bank deposits being the primary asset classes [5][6]. Regulatory Environment - The regulatory framework for internet insurance is tightening, which may impact the rapid expansion of internet insurance businesses, but is expected to lead to a more standardized market in the long run [4][9]. - The solvency levels of property insurers remain adequate, with an average comprehensive solvency ratio of 238.2% as of the end of 2023, indicating a strong financial position [7][9].

www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 2024 年半年度证券行业分析 联合资信 金融评级二部 一、证券行业概况 2023 年，股票市场指数震荡下行，交投活跃程度同比下降，期末两融余额较上年末有所增 长，全年股权融资进度同比明显放缓；债券市场发行增势不减，收益率震荡下行，期末债券市场 指数较年初小幅上涨。2024 年上半年，股票市场指数波动较大，交投活跃程度较低迷；债券市场 收益率震荡下行，期末债券市场指数较年初小幅上涨。 股票市场方面，2023 年，股票市场指数震荡下行，交投活跃程度同比略有下降。截至 2023 年末，上证指数收于 2974.93 点，较年初下跌 3.70%；深圳成指收于 9524.69 点，较年初下跌 13.54%。 根据交易所公布数据，截至 2023 年末，我国上市公司总数 5346 家，较年初增加 267 家；上市公 司总市值 77.76 万亿元，较年初下降 1.58%。根据 Wind 统计数据，2023 年全部 A 股成交额 212.10 万亿元，同比减少 5.27%。截至 2023 年末，市场融资融券余额 1.65 万亿元，较上年末增长 7.17%， 其中融资余额占比 9 ...

Investment Rating - The report categorizes leasing companies into three types: industrial leasing companies, platform leasing companies, and comprehensive leasing companies, with varying growth rates and financial health indicators [2][3][4]. Core Insights - Industrial leasing companies are experiencing significant growth in total assets and equity due to increased industry demand and favorable policy guidance, while platform leasing companies are facing a slowdown in asset growth and profit [2][3][4]. - The report highlights a shift in asset allocation from urban investment platforms to various industries, with industrial leasing companies benefiting from this transition [2][3][4]. - The profitability of platform leasing companies is expected to decline further, while comprehensive leasing companies may see slight profit growth as they adapt to industry changes [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Classification - The report identifies 64 leasing companies, with 29 classified as industrial, 9 as platform, and 26 as comprehensive, reflecting a diverse range of asset allocations and credit ratings [3][4]. - Industrial leasing companies primarily focus on sectors like power, renewable energy, and aviation, while platform leasing companies are more regionally focused on public utilities and infrastructure [3][4]. Financial Performance - As of the end of 2023, industrial leasing companies showed a significant increase in total assets, while platform and comprehensive leasing companies experienced a slowdown in growth [7][9]. - The average asset growth rates from 2021 to 2023 for industrial, platform, and comprehensive leasing companies were 11.74%, 13.58%, and 1.81%, respectively, indicating a stark contrast in performance [9][27]. Risk and Asset Quality - The report notes that industrial leasing companies have a higher single-client concentration compared to other types, which poses a transformation pressure, while comprehensive and platform leasing companies maintain lower concentration levels [12][21]. - As of the end of 2023, the non-performing asset ratios for industrial and platform leasing companies showed slight improvements, while comprehensive leasing companies had the highest non-performing asset ratio among the three categories [21][23]. Leverage and Liquidity - Industrial leasing companies have a higher leverage ratio compared to platform and comprehensive leasing companies, which have seen a decline in their leverage levels [14][17]. - The liquidity position of industrial leasing companies is stronger due to their long-term asset focus, while platform leasing companies face some asset-liability mismatches [19][21].

| --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | 全球资本市场短期波动加大，未来 将如何发展？ 主要观点 联合资信 主权部\|程泽宇 | | | 多重因素叠加共振造成了本轮全球资本市场巨震，日元快速升值和日本央行超预期 ...

因为近期海外市场大幅波动引发了那么关于后市怎么看我们也是今天请到了招商总量和航天团队为大家做一个分享那接下来先有请宏观组首席张天勇老师发言好的感谢罗宾各位投资者大家早上好那其实呢我们如果回顾它不是在今年我们才看到海外市场波动很大的而是从2022年以来你会发现每一年在年初特别受全球瞩目的某一类非美资产它的全年表现往往都不太好 二年年初因为有额无冲突大家一度非常看好能源但是下半年的表现很差那去年呢也是有很好年初被看好的但是全年表现又很差那今年呢就是日经那事实上呢我们认为因为资产的定价无非就是两个因子嘛一个是增长因子一个是流动性因子其实疫情之后增长因子和流动性因子的红利都相继推波了这是非常重要的我们看到资产波动的一个因素 那甚至于包括很多地缘政治还有包括美国对外的施压也带来了一些不确定性那么加速了各类资产的波动所以我们可以认为整个从21年到现在其实全球各类资产它开启了一个类似于墙椅子的游戏也就是说有东西是有限的就像椅子一样然后资产呢是既定的那就像我们说的玩这个游戏的小朋友 而美联储呢本身是掌管着这个全球流动性的总家门并且疫情之后呢其实美国是先后推动了很多产业包括一些经济的自己政策所以说这个抢椅子游戏应该说是美国是主 ...

消费政策联合解读20240806_1_导读 2024年08月07日 01:06 关键词 消费政策 高质量发展 服务供给 劳动就业 经济回升 餐饮行业 首店旗舰店 供应链企业 预制食品 调味品 白酒板块 消费场景 提价潮 股东回馈 低估值 市场占有率 消费 政策 财政 货币政策 全文摘要 中国政府最近发布了关于促进服务消费高质量发展的指导意见，目标是通过提升和扩展服务供应来激发 消费潜力，满足人们日益增长的个性化、多样化的高标准服务需求。特别是餐饮行业，政策强调提升服 务品质，推广地方特色饮食文化和技术，建设美食旅游目的地，并吸引国际知名的餐饮品牌进入中国市 场。这对食品饮料行业，比如预制食品、啤酒、调味品和白酒等行业来说是一个正面消息，预计将推动 这些产业链的整体发展和升级。白酒行业预计将保持弱复苏状态，消费场景和价格带出现分化。与此同 时，消费刺激政策的效果已经开始显现，特别是在促进设备更新和消费品以旧换新方面。此外，文化旅 游、教育培训、养老托育和家政服务等领域都迎来了新的发展机遇。最后，文娱和体育产业也被看 好，特别是在网络文学、剧本游戏、线上演播活动以及体育运动户外行业等方面。这一系列措施和趋势 预示 ...