固定收益/固收点评 证 券 研 究 报 告 固 定 收 益 固 收 点 评 制造业景气度回升，供强需弱格局未变 ——9 月 PMI 数据点评 ◼ 核心观点 积极因素带动制造业供需两端景气度回升。得益于天气好转、生产 季节性因素、设备更新需求增加以及基建需求恢复等因素支撑，9 月 制造业供需两端同步回升，带动制造业 PMI 升至 49.80%，较上月回 升 0.7 个百分点。供给端来看，生产指数升 1.4 个百分点至 51.20%， 重回扩张区间；需求端，订单指数升 1.0 个百分点至 49.90%，在连 续五个月下行后重新回升至枯荣线附近，内需恢复是新订单指数回升 的主要支撑。 外需掣肘新出口订单指数呈现回落态势。9 月新出口订单指数录得 47.50%，较前值回落 1.2 个百分点，进口指数录得 46.10%，较前值 降 0.7 个百分点。我们认为，现阶段海外需求对我国制造业拉动作用 有限，9 月需求整体趋稳进一步表明国内需求有所回升，带动企业生 产意愿释放；内需回升显示增量政策正在发力，在提升有效需求的同 时，或进一步改善市场预期、促进生产恢复。 价格端止跌回升。购进价格指数和出厂价格指数均结束连续 3 个 ...

固定收益/固收点评 证 券 研 究 报 告 固 定 收 益 固 收 点 评 关注下阶段社融变化 ——9 月社融数据点评 ◼ 核心观点 事件：2024 年 10 月 14 日，央行公布 9 月金融统计数据：9 月末广义 货币 M2 同比增长 6.80%，高于前值 0.5 个百分点；狭义货币 M1 同比 下降 7.40%，增速回落 0.10 个百分点。9 月末社会融资规模存量同比 增长 8%；2024 年前三季度社会融资规模增量累计为 25.66 万亿元， 比上年同期少 3.68 万亿元。 政府融资支撑社融环比改善。9 月社融同比增速为 8.00%，较前值降 0.1 个百分点；9 月新增社融初值为 37,604 亿元，较上年同期减少 3,596 亿元。社融口径下信贷延续回升态势：9 月新增人民币贷款为 19,742 亿元，环比较前值增加 7,311 亿元，比上年同期减少 3,692 亿元；政府 融资作为社融的重要支撑，其融资规模的增加有助于稳定社融增速： 9 月政府债券净融资 15,357 亿元，比上年同期多 5,437 亿元；9 月企业 债券融资为-1,926 亿元，同比少增 2,576 亿元，对社融增速产生一 ...

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Q3 业绩同比增长，订单充足未来可期 ——海油工程点评报告 证 券 研 究 报 告 公 司 研 究 公 司 点 评 ◼ 核心观点 公司公告：2024 年前三季度公司实现归母净利润约为 17.45 亿元，同 比提升约 27%，其中 Q3 实现归母净利润约 5.48 亿元，同比提升约 41%，环比下滑约 24%，实现扣非归母净利润约 4.66 亿元，同比提升 约 56%，环比提升约 6%。 研发费用阶段性下滑，净利率有所提升。公司 24 年前三季度研发支出 6.42 亿元，同比下降约 21%，主要原因是上半年公司深水、新型工程、 智能化产品技术项目研发尚处于初始阶段。另外，公司 24 年前三季度 净利率同比增加 1.97pct，达到 8.63%，主要是公司工作量稳步增长， 降本提质增效工作全面融入价值管理，净利润同比增长。 行业景气复苏，工作量稳中有增。受高油价背景下油公司资本开支的 增长所推动，国际海洋油气工程行业逐步复苏。随着中国海油持续开 展增储上产"七年行动计划"，形成了较大规模的能源工程建设需求， 为公司工作量提供了有力支撑，其中 24 年前三季度，公司完成建造业 务完成钢材加工量 35.6 万吨，与去 ...

纺织服饰 行业研究/行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 Q3 国货运动品牌经营稳健，纺织制造呈向好态势 ——行业周报（20241021-1025） ◼ 行情回顾 本周，沪深 300 上涨 0.79%，纺织服饰板块整体上涨 4.38%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 3.59pct，涨跌幅在申万Ⅰ级 31 个行业中排第 10 位。三大子板 块皆呈上涨态势，纺织制造、服装家纺、饰品板块分别上涨 3.14%、 5.91%、2.27%。 ◼ 核心观点 服装：国货运动品牌三季度总体经营稳健。据公司公告，2024 年三季度 李宁营收承压，但线上业务有所增长。公司除李宁 YOUNG 外整体零售 额有中单位数下滑，从渠道看，线上电子商务渠道取得中单位数增长， 线下渠道下滑高单位数，其中直营好于批发下滑中单位数，而批发下滑 高单位数。另外，受市场消费降级影响，国内运动消费品市场竞争越发 激烈，考虑到拓展境外市场需要，10 月 22 日公司发布成立合资公司公 告，引入拥有丰富跨国资源的红杉中国，开始发力出海业务。2024年 Q3 特步国际表现亮眼，主品牌全渠道零售额同比增长中单位数，索康尼全 渠道零售额同比 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, reflecting confidence in its growth prospects and new product developments [6] Core Views - The company's micro-motor products have broad incremental application prospects, with 24Q3 revenue increasing by 9.01% quarter-over-quarter [3] - Despite a year-over-year decline in 24Q3 revenue (-8.69%) and net profit (-18.39%), the company has developed multiple motor varieties for the four-door two-cover field, indicating significant market potential [3] - The company's profitability is under pressure, with a 24Q3 gross margin of 33.94% (down 3.34pct year-over-year) and a net margin of 19.85% (down 2.36pct year-over-year) [3] - The company's ADAS cleaning system is expected to accelerate penetration, with new motor projects entering mass production and overseas factories progressing [3] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of approximately 704 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 6.30%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 164 million yuan, up 8.96% year-over-year [2] - 24Q3 revenue was approximately 241 million yuan, with a net profit of 48 million yuan [3] - The company's 24Q3 operating expense ratio was 10.79%, with sales/management/R&D/financial expense ratios changing by +1.02pct/-0.53pct/-0.30pct/+2.22pct quarter-over-quarter [3] Growth Prospects - The company's revenue is expected to grow to 1.04 billion, 1.18 billion, and 1.35 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 12.1%, 13.9%, and 14.7% [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to reach 220 million, 259 million, and 302 million yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, with growth rates of 9.1%, 17.4%, and 16.8%, respectively [4] - The company's PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 29.0x, 24.7x, and 21.1x, respectively [4] Industry and Product Development - The company's motor products are in the penetration phase, with significant room for customer expansion and market growth [3] - The company is collaborating with German company Lenze on drum motor products, which are expected to enter mass production and be applied in automotive, industrial automation, and humanoid robot scenarios [3] - The company's ADAS cleaning products have secured some customer orders, with more incremental models expected to enter the order cycle [3] Valuation and Financial Ratios - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 2.76, 3.23, and 3.78 yuan, respectively [5] - The company's ROE for 2024-2026 is expected to be 16.7%, 16.4%, and 16.1%, respectively [5] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to improve from 36.7% in 2024 to 38.2% in 2026, with net margins of 21.3%, 21.9%, and 22.3% over the same period [9]

商贸零售 行业研究/行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 双十一首周战报，多品牌成交破亿 ——行业周报（20241021-1025） 行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 ◼ 行情回顾 本周，沪深 300 上涨 0.79%，商贸零售板块整体上涨 5.29%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 4.50pct，涨跌幅在申万Ⅰ级 31 个行业中排第 6 位。四大子板块皆呈上涨态势，贸 易Ⅱ、一般零售、专业连锁Ⅱ、互联网电商分别上涨 14.46%、5.46%、6.38%和 2.21%。 ◼ 核心观点 电商：双十一消费侧更关注质价比。据每日经济新闻双 11 消费问卷观察，消费者 倾向于摒弃冲动消费转向理性购买，从追求低价转变为注重品质，逐渐回归"产 品、价格和服务"的消费初心。因此，24 年双 11 除了提供更具性价比的产品外， 新创意、新产品及体验更优的新服务，成为各大电商平台比拼的重点。 天猫：美妆、服饰、家电板块的头部品牌表现突出。24 年天猫双 11 第一阶段(10/21- 10/24)品牌成交排行榜发布，品牌商品开局成绩亮眼。截至 10/24，284 个品牌成 交破亿，各品牌迎来年度高速成长机会。从品类看，美妆、服饰、家电皆迎来 ...

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating that the stock price is expected to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% [4][13]. Core Insights - The company reported an unaudited loss attributable to owners of approximately 1.492 billion yuan for Q3 2024, with a total loss of about 2.971 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024 [2]. - Cash costs continue to decline, with Q3 2024 cash costs down 12.32% from Q1 2024 and 5.71% from Q2 2024, driven by increased production capacity utilization [2]. - The company achieved a 33% reduction in carbon footprint at its Leshan base, setting a new global industry record, with carbon emissions of only 24.913 kg CO2 equivalent per kg of granular silicon [3]. - The company plans to launch its SiRo carbon chain components, which will utilize its granular silicon as raw material, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [3]. Financial Projections - Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 17.057 billion yuan, 30.523 billion yuan, and 42.118 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -49%, +79%, and +38% [4]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for the same years is -2.921 billion yuan, 1.544 billion yuan, and 4.326 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -216%, +153%, and +180% [4]. - The stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 30 for 2025 and 11 for 2026, indicating potential for recovery in profitability as silicon prices stabilize [4].