先声药业 (02096. HK) 化学制药 买入 (维持) 评级: 分析师:穆奕杉 执业证书编号：S0740524070001 Email: muys@zts.com.cn 基本状况 分析师:祝嘉琦 执业证书编号：S0740519040001 Email: zhujq@zts.com.cn 分析师:曹泽运 执业证书编号: S0740524060002 Email: caozy01@zts.com.cn | 总股本(百万股) | 2,474.70 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 2.474.70 | | 市价(港元) | 13.01 | | 市值(百万港元) | 32.195.82 | | 流通市值(百万港 | 32,195.82 | | 元) | | 股价与行业-市场走势对比 118% 750 相关报告 1、《创新转型成效显著,自研管线 国际化可预期》 2025-04-05 2、《神经+肿瘤+自免三栖,产品矩 阵升级+研发创佳绩》 2025-02-24 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 09 月 03 日 | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | -- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [2][11]. Core Insights - The company has shown strong financial performance with a revenue of 657 million RMB in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20%, and a net profit of 328 million RMB, up 59% year-on-year [4]. - The company has a robust cash reserve of 2.3 billion RMB, providing solid support for future R&D and operations [4]. - The core product, Pimiatinib (ABSK021), has successfully entered the global commercialization phase with Merck exercising its option and paying a fee of 85 million USD [4]. - The company is expected to achieve significant sales milestones with Pimiatinib's global approval and ongoing sales revenue sharing [4]. - The company is actively repurchasing shares, indicating a focus on shareholder returns, with a total of 9.545 million shares repurchased by June 30, 2025 [7]. Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 678 million RMB, 621 million RMB, and 786 million RMB respectively, with net profits of 42 million RMB, 64 million RMB, and 80 million RMB [2][6]. - The company anticipates a peak sales potential of 1.5 billion USD for Pimiatinib targeting TGCT and 1 billion USD for cGVHD [6]. - The report highlights a significant increase in revenue growth rate from 2,544% in 2023 to 35% in 2024, followed by a slight decline of 8% in 2025, and a rebound of 27% in 2026 [9][10]. Product Pipeline and Market Potential - The company is advancing its pipeline with ABSK011, a potential first-in-class FGFR4 inhibitor, which has shown promising preclinical efficacy and is currently in registration clinical trials [5]. - ABSK043, an oral PD-L1 inhibitor, is also in development, showing a 19.6% objective response rate in early trials, with potential for significant market impact in the NSCLC segment [7]. - The company has a rich pipeline with various candidates, including KRAS inhibitors and ADCs, indicating a strong future growth trajectory [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, particularly on intelligent autonomous vehicles, robot components, and leading heavy-duty truck manufacturers [4][6]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a recovery in demand, with wholesale sales of passenger vehicles reaching 7.11 million units in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.8% [4][8]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached a record high of 51.1% in Q2 2025, with wholesale sales of NEVs hitting 3.63 million units, up 33.6% year-on-year and 25.2% quarter-on-quarter [4][8]. - The performance of major automakers such as Xiaopeng and Leap Motor exceeded expectations, while most others met forecasts [4][15][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Passenger Vehicles - Q2 2025 saw a steady recovery in passenger vehicle sales, with wholesale and retail volumes increasing significantly compared to Q1 [4][8]. - The demand for NEVs continues to grow, with a notable increase in sales and market penetration [4][8]. 2. Auto Parts - The auto parts sector is experiencing a divergence in profitability, with some companies outperforming while others struggle due to increased competition and supply chain pressures [4][6]. - Companies like Fuyao Glass and Shanghai Yalong reported better-than-expected performance in Q2 2025 [4][6]. 3. Heavy-Duty Trucks - The domestic market for heavy-duty trucks remains robust, with Q2 2025 sales of heavy trucks reaching 201,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 21% [4][6]. - Exports are recovering, particularly in non-Russian regions, despite a decline in sales to Russia [4][6]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on intelligent autonomous vehicles, robot components, and leading heavy-duty truck manufacturers, highlighting specific companies such as Xiaopeng, Geely, and Leap Motor for passenger vehicles, and China National Heavy Duty Truck and Weichai Power for heavy-duty trucks [4][6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with a continuous recovery during the peak season. The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has increased, and the domestic manufacturing PMI showed a slight rebound in August, indicating a good macro atmosphere. Various metal prices are expected to strengthen, particularly for rigid supply varieties like copper and aluminum [4][5]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The number of listed companies in the industry is 141, with a total market value of 40,523.71 billion and a circulating market value of 38,091.88 billion [2]. - Domestic industrial metal prices showed mixed performance, with the LME copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc prices changing by 1.1%, -0.1%, -0.2%, and 0.3% respectively, while SHFE prices changed by -0.9%, 0.5%, 0.6%, and -0.6% [5][25]. Economic Factors - The manufacturing PMI in China for August is reported at 49.4, slightly up from 49.3, with production and new orders indices at 50.8 and 49.5 respectively [8][35]. - The U.S. PPI showed a year-on-year increase of 3.3% in July, while the CPI remained stable at 2.7% [8][45]. - The Eurozone's economic sentiment index has declined, with CPI growth steady at 2% [8][43]. - Global manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7 in July, indicating a slight deterioration in business conditions [8][49]. Basic Metals - The recovery in the peak season continues, particularly for electrolytic aluminum, with signs of increasing downstream demand [9][51]. - The electrolytic aluminum industry saw a capacity increase of 10,000 tons, with operational capacity reaching 44,035,000 tons [10][52]. - The average operating rate for aluminum processing enterprises increased by 0.7%, indicating a recovery trend as the peak season approaches [10][53]. Aluminum and Alumina - The alumina price is experiencing accelerated declines, with a current price of 3,209 yuan/ton, down 1.26% [12][97]. - Domestic alumina inventory has risen to 4,316,000 tons, surpassing historical levels [12][99]. Copper - The processing fee for copper has declined, with domestic electrolytic copper production reported at 238,000 tons, an increase of 1.61% year-on-year [14][116]. - Domestic copper inventory has decreased to 202,200 tons, down 0.88% from the previous week [14][116]. Zinc - The processing fee for refined zinc has increased, with domestic production reported at 138,400 tons, up 4.05% year-on-year [15][116]. - Domestic zinc inventory has continued to rise, reaching 144,500 tons [15][116].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [4][23]. Core Views - The company has shown strong potential in the semiconductor materials sector, with a significant increase in market share anticipated due to domestic substitution trends [7][8]. - The report slightly lowers the profit forecast for 2025-2027, reflecting pressures in the photovoltaic sand market, but maintains a positive outlook on the semiconductor materials business [8][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 510 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 110 million yuan, down 58.4% year-on-year [6]. - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 260 million yuan, a decrease of 24.0% year-on-year, but a slight increase of 2.8% quarter-on-quarter [6]. Semiconductor Materials Outlook - The company is expected to enhance its market share in semiconductor quartz glass materials, having received certifications from major international equipment manufacturers [8]. - The domestic production of semiconductor sand is anticipated to accelerate, with the company already achieving certifications for its self-produced sand from several international semiconductor equipment vendors [8]. Photovoltaic Sector Challenges - The high-purity quartz sand segment faced a revenue drop of 59.20% year-on-year in H1 2025, primarily due to weak demand from the photovoltaic sector [8]. - The report suggests that as inventory depletion in downstream sectors concludes, the actual demand for high-purity quartz sand is expected to gradually recover [8]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The revised profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 300 million yuan, 450 million yuan, and 620 million yuan, respectively, reflecting adjustments in sales volume and price assumptions for photovoltaic quartz sand [8]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected at 72.1, 48.1, and 34.9 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to be 3.7, 3.5, and 3.2 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in stock price within the next 6 to 12 months [3][22]. Core Views - The company has shown strong performance in its financial results, with a revenue of 822 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.50%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 235 million yuan, up 24.55% year-on-year [5]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the growth of its peptide and small nucleic acid products, with a robust pipeline and ongoing capacity expansion projects [5]. - The financial forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate a revenue growth of 20.60%, 19.33%, and 19.25% respectively, with net profits expected to grow by 32.84%, 30.18%, and 28.95% [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 822 million yuan, with a net profit of 235 million yuan, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [5]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 420 million yuan, a 6.31% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 115 million yuan, up 8.53% year-on-year [5]. Product Development - The company is actively expanding its product pipeline, with significant growth in peptide and small nucleic acid raw materials. The sales revenue for these products reached 510 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a 14.82% increase [5]. - The core product, Dydrogesterone tablets, has seen a sales revenue of 95.68 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with plans to penetrate the tertiary hospital market further [5]. Research and Development - The company has increased its R&D investment, with R&D expenses amounting to 71.8 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing 8.74% of its revenue [5]. - The establishment of an AI small nucleic acid drug discovery laboratory in collaboration with East China Normal University is expected to open new growth avenues [5]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 60.11%, an increase of 3.09 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 28.58%, up 2.77 percentage points [5]. - The company has maintained stable expense ratios, with sales and management expense ratios showing slight decreases [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the traditional Chinese medicine sector [4]. Core Viewpoints - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is experiencing short-term performance pressure, but there are expectations for demand recovery in the future [7][10]. - The overall revenue and profit decline in the sector has narrowed compared to 2024, indicating a gradual recovery in industry sentiment [10]. - The report highlights the importance of brand OTC products, which are expected to see market share increases despite current demand pressures [7][26]. Summary by Sections 2025H1 Performance - In 2025H1, the total revenue of traditional Chinese medicine companies reached 172.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.95% [10]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 19.1 billion yuan, down 9.31% year-on-year [10]. - The operating cash flow improved significantly, reaching 16.96 billion yuan, an increase of 30.77% year-on-year [10]. OTC Market Analysis - The OTC segment is under pressure, with a median revenue growth rate of -7.6% and a net profit decline of -19.7% in Q2 2025 [26]. - The retail market for pharmaceuticals and non-pharmaceuticals in China saw a slight decline, with a total of 296.1 billion yuan in H1 2025, down 2.2% year-on-year [26][29]. - The report notes that the concentration of leading OTC brands is increasing, with significant market share gains for products like Huaren Sanjiu's Ganmaoling Granules [26][31]. Cost and Margin Outlook - The median gross margin for the sector in 2025H1 was 42.05%, a decrease of 1.01 percentage points year-on-year [10]. - The report anticipates a recovery in gross margins in H2 2025 as the pressure from high-priced raw materials eases [13]. - The median expense ratio for the sector was 44.5%, reflecting a stable cost structure despite slight increases in certain areas [15]. R&D and Innovation - The median R&D expense ratio for the sector remains around 3%, with leading companies like Kangyuan Pharmaceutical and Tian Shili investing over 10% of their revenue in R&D [24]. - The report emphasizes the potential for revaluation of innovative pipelines as companies increase their R&D investments [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in its main business, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, indicating a turning point in its operations [5] - The company is expected to achieve substantial revenue growth in the coming years, driven by its innovative business layout and expansion in various segments [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 677 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.42%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 49 million yuan, up 158.97% [5] - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 401 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 16.15%, and a net profit of 28 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 468.03% [5] - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 32.45%, an increase of 2.94 percentage points, while the net margin was 7.84%, up 4.34 percentage points [5] Business Segments - The formulation segment reported revenue of 262 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 111.03%, driven by the successful commercialization of its projects [5] - The active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) business is stabilizing, with new product registrations ongoing, and the company has established solid supply relationships with major pharmaceutical firms [5] - The CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) segment is expanding, with ongoing collaborations with major clients and new project developments [5] Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.603 billion, 1.982 billion, and 2.389 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.77%, 23.69%, and 20.49% respectively [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 129 million, 164 million, and 208 million yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 92.98%, 27.16%, and 27.04% respectively [5] - The company's stock is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 23, 18, and 14 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation given the expected growth [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 9.11 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.69 billion yuan, up 75.5% year-on-year [5] - The company has seen a continuous increase in sales volume of glass fiber products, with a total of 1.5822 million tons sold in H1 2025, a 3.9% increase year-on-year. The sales revenue from domestic and international markets accounted for approximately 63.62% and 34.75%, respectively [5] - The company is expanding its production capacity and upgrading its product structure, with significant investments planned for new production lines [5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2023A: 14,876 million yuan - 2024A: 15,856 million yuan - 2025E: 18,614 million yuan - 2026E: 20,693 million yuan - 2027E: 22,875 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: -26% (2023A), 7% (2024A), 17% (2025E), 11% (2026E), 11% (2027E) [3] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2023A: 3,044 million yuan - 2024A: 2,445 million yuan - 2025E: 3,512 million yuan - 2026E: 4,054 million yuan - 2027E: 4,708 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: -54% (2023A), -20% (2024A), 44% (2025E), 15% (2026E), 16% (2027E) [3] - Earnings Per Share (EPS) Forecast: - 2023A: 0.76 yuan - 2024A: 0.61 yuan - 2025E: 0.88 yuan - 2026E: 1.01 yuan - 2027E: 1.18 yuan [3] Market Position and Strategy - The company has established overseas production bases in Egypt and the United States, which can meet approximately 50% of its overseas market demand, helping to mitigate trade environment changes [5] - The company is actively developing low-dielectric and low-expansion products, with ongoing research and development for ultra-thin electronic fabrics [5] - The company plans to invest 880 million yuan in a new production line to enhance its capacity and product offerings [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6] Core Views - The company's profitability has significantly improved, with the successful implementation of the Nigeria project [1] - The company has achieved a notable increase in overseas business, with cement and clinker revenue rising by 15.37% year-on-year [4] - The completion of the acquisition of 83.81% equity in the Nigeria project for USD 774 million is expected to enhance the company's overall performance [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of CNY 16.047 billion, a decrease of 1.17% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 51.05% to CNY 1.103 billion [4] - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of CNY 8.885 billion, down 2.94% year-on-year, but net profit rose by 57.22% to CNY 870 million [4] - The company's overseas cement and clinker business achieved revenue of CNY 4.128 billion, with sales volume increasing by 10.41% year-on-year [4] Profitability and Growth Forecast - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to CNY 2.673 billion, CNY 3.253 billion, and CNY 3.550 billion respectively [4] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 12.7, 10.4, and 9.5, while the P/B ratios are 1.1, 1.0, and 0.9 respectively [4] - The company is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory, with domestic cement business profitability gradually recovering and overseas capacity continuing to expand [4]