Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the brokerage sector, indicating a positive outlook for relative returns in the industry [3][23]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from the transition of the A-share market from a stock market to an incremental market, with trading activity increasing significantly. As of July 22, 2025, the trading volume reached 1.93 trillion yuan, marking a 11.7% increase from the previous trading day [3][6]. - The forecasted net profit growth for the first half of 2025 for 29 brokerages is centered around 75.02%, with a notable 20.66% growth expected in the second quarter of 2025 [3][13]. - The report highlights the potential for brokerages to benefit from the upcoming regulatory changes regarding stablecoins and virtual asset licenses, which could open new revenue streams [7][12]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The report notes that the brokerage sector has seen a significant performance gap between H-shares and A-shares, with H-shares increasing by 73.9% compared to a mere 22.0% for A-shares, indicating a potential for A-shares to catch up [7][16]. - The report identifies a shift in investor strategy from trading to holding, suggesting a more sustainable growth trajectory for the brokerage sector [7][12]. Performance Forecast - The top five brokerages by net profit forecast for 1H25 are: Guotai Junan (156.2 billion yuan, 212% growth), China Galaxy (65.82 billion yuan, 50% growth), and others, indicating strong performance across the sector [6][13]. - The report emphasizes that the brokerage sector is likely to attract more incremental capital as market sentiment shifts, particularly with the implementation of policies aimed at enhancing the quality of public funds [7][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading brokerages such as Guotai Junan, CITIC Securities, and financial technology leaders like Dongfang Wealth, which are expected to benefit from increased market activity [7][12]. - The report also notes that the current valuation of H-shares remains attractive compared to A-shares, with an average price-to-book ratio of 1.0 for H-shares versus 1.5 for A-shares [7][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the brokerage sector [2] Core Viewpoints - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from the transition of the A-share market from a stock market to an incremental market, with trading activity increasing and overall market valuations rising [5][6] - The forecasted net profit growth for the brokerage firms in the first half of 2025 is projected to be 75.02%, with significant contributions from leading firms [5][8] - The report highlights the potential for brokers to benefit from stablecoin developments and virtual asset license upgrades, which could create new growth opportunities [5] - There is a notable price discrepancy between A-shares and H-shares of brokerage firms, indicating potential for A-shares to catch up [5][9] - The report suggests that the current market environment is conducive for investing in underperforming brokerage stocks, with a focus on leading firms and fintech companies [5] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The total number of listed companies in the brokerage sector is 83, with a total market value of 76,326.04 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 73,589.02 billion yuan [2] Market Dynamics - The A-share market has seen a significant increase in trading volume, with a transaction amount of 1.93 trillion yuan on July 22, 2025, marking an 11.7% increase from the previous trading day [5] - The financing balance in the market reached 1.9 trillion yuan, reflecting a 0.8% increase, while the financing purchase balance increased by 7.6% [5] Performance Forecast - The report indicates that 29 brokerage firms have forecasted a net profit growth of 75.02% for the first half of 2025, with the second quarter showing a 20.66% year-on-year growth [5][8] - The top five firms by net profit growth include Huaxi Securities (1189.5%), Guolian Minsheng (1183.0%), and Guosheng Jinkong (315.5%) [5][8] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading brokerage firms such as Guotai Junan, CITIC Securities, and Orient Securities, as well as fintech leaders like Dongfang Wealth and Zhinancun [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in the ophthalmology sector, actively developing multiple next-generation products targeting retinal diseases, including gene therapies (KH631, KH658) and high-concentration Conbercept, focusing on long-acting treatments [6][9] - The global sales of Faricimab are projected to reach CHF 3.864 billion (approximately USD 4.4 billion) in 2024, reflecting a 68% year-on-year growth, indicating the commercial value of long-acting treatments for retinal diseases [6][9] - The company has a robust pipeline with significant advancements in gene therapy and other innovative drugs, which are expected to contribute to steady revenue growth in the coming years [6][18] Summary by Sections Section 1: Gene Therapy in Ophthalmology - The company is advancing gene therapies that show superior safety profiles compared to major competitors, with KH631 demonstrating a lower incidence of adverse effects in clinical trials [11][12] - The clinical data for KH631 indicates potential for over two years of dosing intervals, enhancing its market appeal [9][14] Section 2: Expansion into New Fields - The company is diversifying its portfolio with several new drugs in clinical trials outside of ophthalmology, including treatments for glioblastoma, postpartum depression, and pain management [18][19] - The innovative nature of these drugs positions the company favorably for international market opportunities [18][19]

Group 1: Overall Market Overview - The overall fund market is dominated by mixed funds, totaling 4,702, followed by bond funds and equity funds. The growth rate for equity funds in the current quarter is the highest at 7.45%, followed by REITs at 6.15%. The largest scale is in money market funds, reaching 142,311.36 billion yuan [3][4] - As of the end of Q2 2025, there are 581 ordinary equity funds, 1,359 flexible allocation funds, 26 balanced mixed funds, and 2,613 equity mixed funds. The number of equity mixed funds increased by 41 compared to Q1 2025 [3][4] Group 2: Active Equity Fund Positioning - The highest equity position is in ordinary equity funds at 89.61%, followed by 88.19% in equity mixed funds. The stock positions of various active equity funds are close to historical highs since 2015, with flexible allocation funds reaching their highest ever [4] - The highest industry allocation for active equity funds is in Hong Kong Stock Connect at 19.91%, followed by electronics at 15.07%. The allocation to Hong Kong Stock Connect has reached its highest level since Q1 2015 [4][5] Group 3: Stock and Individual Stock Configuration - The highest valued stock held by active equity funds is Tencent Holdings. Among the top twenty holdings, six are from Hong Kong Stock Connect, accounting for 33.79% of the total value of the top 20 stocks. The food and beverage and electronics sectors each have three stocks in the top holdings, accounting for 12.44% and 11.72%, respectively [4][5] - The stock with the highest increase in holdings is Zhongji Xuchuang, with an increase of 139.45 billion yuan. Other stocks with increases exceeding 100 billion yuan include Xinyi and Shunfeng Holdings, all from the communication sector [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking the first coverage [2][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights the focus on innovative antibacterial treatments, particularly the commercialization of the core product, Contizole, and the ongoing development of its pipeline products [8][9][11]. - The company is positioned in the growing market of antibiotic resistance, with a strong emphasis on addressing clinical challenges through differentiated innovation [13][20]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 1.74 billion, 2.05 billion, and 2.49 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a growth trajectory despite initial cash flow delays typical of biotech firms [10][46]. - The report utilizes a DCF valuation method, indicating that the current market valuation is relatively undervalued based on the company's growth potential and market position [10][21]. Business Overview - The company has established a solid domestic business foundation, with its core product, Contizole, showing significant sales growth of 88.3% in 2023 and projected continued growth of 43.51% in 2024 [4][27]. - The company has expanded its hospital coverage to 582 hospitals, with 150 hospitals formally approved for bulk procurement, enhancing market penetration [4][27]. Pipeline Development - The report details the ongoing global Phase III clinical trials for MRX-4, which is aimed at treating diabetic foot infections, and highlights the successful completion of Phase I trials for MRX-5 and MRX-8 [7][41][43]. - The company is actively pursuing international clinical development for its innovative products, with MRX-5 receiving FDA orphan drug designation, indicating strong potential for market entry [7][41][43]. Competitive Positioning - The company is strategically positioned in the antibacterial sector, focusing on multi-drug resistant bacteria, and has developed a comprehensive product matrix to address various infection types [20][21]. - The innovative approach includes a dual coverage strategy for Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [9][20].

Core Insights - The domestic short drama market is experiencing rapid growth, with the user base reaching 696 million by June 2025, accounting for nearly 70% of total internet users [3] - The number of micro short dramas produced in the first half of 2025 exceeded 66,300, surpassing the total for the entire previous year, indicating a strong upward trend in production [3] - The top 10 platforms dominate the market, with a total heat value of 11.229 billion, representing 84.93% of the top 100 platforms' total heat value [3] Domestic Short Drama Market - In the first half of 2025, the number of new micro short dramas reached over 39,600, making up approximately 60% of the total productions [3] - The number of micro short dramas on Douyin reached a historical high of 94,900 by June 2025, with new dramas accounting for about 18% of the total [4] - The trend shows a significant increase in both new and old dramas, highlighting the market's vitality and rapid iteration [4] Overseas Short Drama Market - In June 2025, the top five overseas short drama platforms by download volume were DramaBox, ReelShort, NetShort, GoodShort, and DramaWave, with downloads reaching 19.07 million, 17.43 million, 8.57 million, 5.72 million, and 4.84 million respectively [4] - The revenue for the top five overseas short drama platforms in June 2025 was led by ReelShort at 3,141 million USD, followed by DramaBox at 2,501 million USD [4] - Cumulative downloads for the first half of 2025 showed similar rankings, with ReelShort leading at 16,662 million USD in revenue [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as Zhongwen Online and Haikan Co., while suggesting to pay attention to companies like Zhangyue Technology, Kunlun Wanwei, Huazhi Shumei, Mango Super Media, Tianwei Video, and Yuedu Group [4]

Email：hejy02@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740524070006 执业证书编号：S0740523020004 乘用车 | | | Email：baizz@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 1,633.37 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 1,509.78 | | 市价(元) | 130.12 | | 市值(百万元) | 212,533.60 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 212,533.60 | 相关报告 1、《赛力斯（601127.SH）：鸿蒙智 行合作典范，高确定性豪华 SUV 龙 头》2025-02-20 赛力斯（601127.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 07 月 16 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：何俊艺 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Since 2025, the bond market has shown a "mountain" - shaped trend, with various meta - stories attracting market attention. However, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield has been oscillating within a narrow range around 1.75%, and it is difficult for interest rates to break through previous lows due to multiple constraints [3][7]. - The market needs to reconstruct stories in several aspects, such as the decoupling of real estate and interest rates, explaining new consumption through structural "breakthroughs", the end of the global low - interest - rate era, focusing on the endogenous economic momentum, and the need for step - by - step verification from commodity supply - demand, PPI - CPI to interest rates [3]. - In the second half of the year, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to be between 1.6% and 1.9%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield between 1.8% and 2.1%. The funds will remain flat, the yield curve will steepen, and the long - end bond interest rate will be priced around the policy rate + funds rate weighted + 30/40BP, with the interest rate peak likely to occur in the fourth quarter [3][137]. - In terms of strategies, it is recommended to maintain a neutral duration. For credit bonds, look for opportunities in short - end credit sinking and long - end high - grade bonds; for interest - rate bonds, seek opportunities in old bonds, local bonds, and non - key - maturity Treasury bonds [138][143]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamentals: Growth without Real Estate, Desensitization of Commodities and Interest Rates - The influence of the real estate sector on the bond market and GDP has been declining. The trading volume proportion of real - estate - related stocks in the A - share market has decreased from 5.58% in 2015 to 1.04% in 2025, and its weight in the Shanghai Composite Index has dropped from 4.32% in 2016 to 1.17%. The impact of real estate fluctuations on GDP has also weakened [9]. - Commodity prices, represented by real - estate - related commodities such as rebar and glass, have continued to decline. The prices of rebar and glass futures have dropped by 9% and 24% respectively as of June 30 [16]. - By observing economic indicators excluding real estate and liquor, it can be found that the market risk preference has increased, and asset prices are decoupling from the real - estate chain and the liquor industry [18][23]. 3.2 Inflation: New Consumption "Everywhere", but "Invisible" in Prices - The CPI growth rate has been low this year, but there are some signs of new consumption, such as the popularity of premium blind boxes and high - end beauty products. The traditional inflation framework may have failed, and the re - inflation framework of optional consumption has emerged [26]. - The Lego price index shows that Lego investment has a high return rate, and its price increase is not in line with the global CPI trend. China's new consumption represented by trendy toys may be experiencing a "Lego moment" [30]. - The growth logic of trendy toys such as Lego and Pop Mart is similar, including first - level quantity control, second - level circulation platforms, emotional value provision, etc. The new consumption represented by trendy toys may be at the starting point of price increases, and the traditional inflation narrative is changing [33][37]. 3.3 Economic "Scar Effect" Integral Repair: Endogenous Growth Curve of Technology and Consumption Phenomena 3.3.1 Bottom - up Integration of Technology and Consumption - The development of the technology industry, such as the rise of DeepSeek, is the result of the overseas AI model impact - response structure. The development of the AI industry has promoted the growth of product performance and asset prices [38][40]. - The growth of new consumption is also the result of long - term "integration". The performance growth of new - consumption companies is not fully reflected in their stock prices. The popularity of trendy toys represented by Pop Mart is the response to the endogenous demand of new - consumption structure [41][45]. 3.3.2 Looking at Consumption through Subsidies: Is it Demand Front - loading or Release of Endogenous Momentum? - The national subsidy for trading in old products for new ones has boosted social retail sales. However, there are concerns about the continuation of the subsidy in the second half of the year. Even if the subsidy declines, consumption still has growth potential in non - subsidy commodities and service - based consumption [51][58]. 3.4 Global Interest - Rate Perspective: The Lagged Effect of China's Interest Rates Breaking out of the "ZLB" (Zero - Lower - Bound) Zone 3.4.1 Global Perspective: Quantitative Evidence of the Gradual Rise of the Interest - Rate Level - Most countries have basically emerged from the ZLB zone. The global interest - rate factor has shown an upward trend, and China's bond market has had an independent downward trend in the past three years, but the future interest - rate level may rebound with the global trend [68][71]. - Through principal component analysis of the policy rates of 39 major countries and regions, the first and second factors have an explanatory power of 66.81% and 23.29% respectively. China's interest - rate trend is relatively independent of these global factors [74]. 3.4.2 China's Interest Rates May be Experiencing the Lagged Conduction of the Global Interest - Rate Upturn - Most countries that entered the low - interest - rate zone did not stay there permanently. Japan, which has been in the low - interest - rate zone for the longest time, also had multiple interest - rate rebounds. China's interest - rate decline may be a lagged effect, and it is difficult for China's interest rates to remain low independently of the global trend for a long time [82][94]. 3.4.3 Internal Factors Determine the Direction, External Factors Determine the Fluctuation - Tariffs are not the decisive factor for asset prices and the economic fundamentals this year. The internal factors of consumption, such as the recovery of tourism consumption, the formation of new - consumption trends, and the increase in consumer - loan growth, are more important [104][106]. - A stable trading framework for dealing with external tariff events can be established in three steps: setting a baseline, making qualitative predictions, and adjusting the baseline according to market changes [110]. 3.5 Institutional Behavior: Liability Shortage under Sufficient Liquidity? - The characteristics of institutional behavior this year are limited allocation - disk funds and a decline in the winning rate of trading - disk operations. Insurance companies have shifted to equity assets, and banks have suffered from liability - end losses, while rural commercial banks, as the main trading - disk institutions, have a lower winning rate [111][114]. - The change from sufficient liquidity to liability shortage is mainly due to the transformation of deposits from time to demand and the transfer from bank deposits to non - bank deposits. This will bring problems such as pressure on bank certificate of deposit issuance, differences in the assets and liabilities of large and small banks, and banks' need to sell bonds to support profits [118][126]. - Insurance companies' bond - buying behavior has shown trading characteristics, and bank - wealth management growth has been relatively weak [128][130]. 3.6 Changes are Brewing in the Quietness - The stock, bond, and commodity markets have shown seemingly contradictory trends this year. The equity market is relatively strong, the bond market is average, and the commodity market is weak. The pricing of the equity market is more leading and sensitive [134]. - In the second half of the year, the central bank's total - volume monetary policy is not expected to be overly loose. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to be between 1.6% and 1.9%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield between 1.8% and 2.1%. The yield curve will steepen, and the interest - rate peak may occur in the fourth quarter [136][137]. - Technically, the Treasury - bond futures price is in a volatile market, and there are still cautious factors in the medium term. In terms of strategies, it is recommended to maintain a neutral duration and look for opportunities in credit and interest - rate bonds [138][143].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in credit growth, with government bonds remaining a primary support item. In June, social financing increased by 900.8 billion yuan year-on-year, with a total of 4.2 trillion yuan added, surpassing market expectations [9][10] - The structure of social financing shows a significant increase in credit, with a notable rise in government bond issuance, which reached 1.3508 trillion yuan in June, up 503.2 billion yuan year-on-year [10][12] Summary by Sections Social Financing Growth - In June, social financing increased by 900.8 billion yuan compared to the same month last year, with a total of 4.2 trillion yuan added, exceeding consensus expectations. The year-on-year growth rate of social financing reached 8.9%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from May [9][10] Credit Situation - New loans in June amounted to 2.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 110 billion yuan year-on-year, which is higher than market expectations. The year-on-year growth rate of credit balance was 7.1%, with the growth rate remaining stable compared to the previous month [12][13] - The credit structure indicates that various types of general loans (excluding bills) have increased year-on-year, while the characteristics of bill financing have weakened. Specifically, corporate short-term loans saw a significant increase [13][18] Liquidity and Deposit Situation - In June, M1 growth rate significantly increased, and the gap between M2 and M1 narrowed. M0, M1, and M2 grew by 12.0%, 4.6%, and 8.3% year-on-year, respectively [6][12] - The total increase in RMB deposits in June was 3.21 trillion yuan, which is 750 billion yuan more than the same period last year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.3% [6][12] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the banking sector, particularly regional banks with strong certainty and advantages, such as Jiangsu Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank. It also highlights the importance of high dividend stability in large banks [6][12]

Group 1: Meeting Overview - The Central Urban Work Conference was held on July 14-15, 2025, emphasizing the transition from "large-scale incremental expansion" to "stock quality improvement" in urban development[3] - The meeting highlighted the importance of high-quality urban development, with a focus on "in-depth development" and "urban renewal" as key strategies[3] Group 2: Real Estate Policy Insights - The conference proposed to "accelerate the construction of a new model for real estate development" and to "steadily promote the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing," but did not introduce strong stimulus measures[3] - The overall tone regarding real estate was neutral and cautious, lacking the anticipated "large-scale urban village renovation to drive investment"[3] Group 3: Urban Renewal and Infrastructure - Emphasis was placed on "steady progress" in urban village and dilapidated housing renovations, reflecting a cautious approach to avoid new debt risks and overheating housing prices[3] - The meeting outlined a clear long-term strategy for urban renewal and the development of modern urban clusters, indicating a shift from land-driven growth to quality-driven development[3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a "barbell strategy" in investment, focusing on stable sectors like bonds and dividends while also considering opportunities in technology sectors[3] - The anticipated economic pressure in the second half of the year suggests a cautious approach to real estate and infrastructure investments, with a focus on structural opportunities in related industries[3]