Group 1 - The report indicates that the performance of major asset classes in April suggests a focus on the "reflexivity" of US financial conditions, with liquidity becoming a core pricing factor transitioning from fundamentals [2][14][19] - The report highlights that the strong expectations and realities of the overseas economy in the first quarter can be attributed to the continued easing of financial conditions, despite rising US Treasury yields and the dollar [2][14][32] - It is noted that excessive easing of financial conditions may hinder the potential for interest rate cuts, as historically, the Federal Reserve tends to lower rates when financial conditions tighten [2][19][32] Group 2 - The report anticipates that under the "liquidity spillover" effect, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are likely to benefit relatively, as their valuations remain low compared to overseas markets [21][23] - The report emphasizes that the domestic capital market is experiencing a trend of liquidity spillover, primarily due to a relatively loose monetary policy environment leading to a "scarcity of assets" [21][23] - It is suggested that macroeconomic data, including prices, is expected to improve year-on-year in the second quarter, which could enhance risk appetite in the A-share market [21][23] Group 3 - The report recommends a configuration strategy focusing on dividend and undervalued domestic demand products, suggesting that "external-oriented" varieties should be considered for entry during pullbacks [24][41] - Specific sectors and companies are highlighted for investment, including China Shenhua (coal), Ecovacs (home appliances), Changan Automobile, BYD (automobiles), Yunnan Aluminum (non-ferrous), Nuotai Bio (pharmaceuticals), Hailan Home (textiles), and Zhongju High-tech (food and beverage) [26][42] - The report indicates that the "scarcity of assets" logic supports the continued positive performance of dividend assets, while "odds trading" should focus on undervalued domestic demand products such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food and beverage [24][41]

从中期视角看，春节以来，恒生中国企业走势显著强于恒生指数与恒生 科技等，是少数稳步上涨走出趋势的主流港股指数。其背后原因正是我 们此前一直强调的港股高股息逻辑。在"国九条"鼓励"长钱长投"的 要求下，预计保险等国内长线资金以忽略股价波动为特征的"成本法" 计价的比例或显著提高。超过 8%或 10%分红率的港股国央企相对于其 资金成本有着显著的配置价值，这也是我们自去年以来中期看好港股高 股息国央企的最重要原因。 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 - 4 - 三、周度市场回顾及展望（4 月 29 日-4 月 30 日） 来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所 来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所 来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分- 6 - 来源:Wind,中泰证券研究所 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|----------------|----------------|---------------------|-------------------|-------|----- ...

[Table_Main] [Table_Title] 分析师：张德礼 ◼ 2024 年 4 月 30 日，政治局会议召开。本次会议最受关注的是公告了今年 7 月将召开二十届三中全会，重点研究进一步全面深化改革、推进中国式现代 化问题。偏短期的经济工作方面，认为年初中国经济实现良好开局，下一步要 靠前发力有效落实已经确定的宏观政策，同时要持续防范化解重点领域风险。 ◼ 按照惯例，二十届三中全会将以"改革开放"为主题，资本市场对此也有讨论 和期待。从本次会议通稿看，下一阶段将把改革和中国式现代化更有机结合， 要紧紧围绕推进中国式现代化进一步全面深化改革，通过改革为中国式现代 化提供强大动力和制度保障。 ◼ 延续 2023 年 12 月中央经济工作会议的思路，本次会议也指出了经济持续回 升向好所面临的挑战。对比来看，本次会议的变化：一是删掉了"部分行业产 能过剩"和"社会预期偏弱"；二是增加了"企业经营压力较大"的提法，原 材料涨价和终端价格低迷，在两头挤压企业利润；三是外部环境的复杂性、严 峻性、不确定性，从"上升"变为"明显上升"。今年是海外大选年，地缘冲 突不确定性较大，给中国企业的出口和原材料成本都带来压力 ...

[Table_Industry] 证券研究报告/月度报告 2024 年 4 月 30 日 制造业强生产的支撑和隐忧 ——2024 年 4 月 PMI 数据解读 [要点Table_Summary] ◼ 2024 年 4 月，官方制造业 PMI 为 50.4%，和上月相比降了 0.4 个百分点。 为剔除疫情的影响，分析 2015 年-2019 年的季节性变化，这五年 4 月的官方 制造业 PMI 较 3 月平均下降 0.24 个百分点。因此，今年 4 月的官方制造业 PMI 略弱于季节性。 ◼ 展望未来，需要关注原材料涨价抑制制造业企业生产的可能。通常企业在扩 大生产时，会增加采购、扩大进口，带来原材料库存上升。最近的制造业 PM I 生产指数连续 2 个月回升，发生在 2023 年 7 月-9 月，当时就是如此。但今 年 4 月，在制造业 PMI 生产指数回升幅度创 10 余年新高的同时，进口指数 和采购量指数环比下降均超过 2 个百分点，原材料库存指数持平于前值。 ◼ 受原材料涨价的影响，4 月制造业 PMI 出厂价格指数从上月的 47.4%回升到 49.1%。根据 PPI 环比和 PMI 出厂价格指数的相关 ...

评级：买入（维持） 美好医疗（301363.SZ）/医疗器 械 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 4 月 24 日 市场价格：23.60 元 分析师：祝嘉琦 执业证书编号：S0740519040001 电话：021-20315150 Email：zhujq@zts.com.cn 分析师：谢木青 执业证书编号：S0740518010004 电话：021-20315895 Email：xiemq@zts.com.cn 分析师：于佳喜 执业证书编号：S0740523080002 Email：yujx03@zts.com.cn | --- | --- | |---------------------|-------| | | | | 基本状况 | | | 总股本 ( 百万股 ) | 407 | | 流通股本 ( 百万股 ) | 112 | | 市价 ( 元 ) | 23.60 | | 市值 ( 百万元 ) | 9,597 | | 流通市值 ( 百万元 ) | 2,647 | 股价与行业-市场走势对比 -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 2023-042023-052023-0 ...

长安汽车(000625.SZ)/汽车 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2024 年 05 月 08 日 总股本(百万股) 9,922 流通股本(百万股) 9,922 市价(元) 14.98 市值(百万元) 148,629 流通市值（百万元） 148,629 [基Ta本ble状_P况rofit] 长安汽车系列深度：智能化全面加速，华为深度赋能远期成长 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-----------|------------|---------------|--------------|-------------| | 公司盈利预测及估值 \n指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 121,253 | 151,298 | 217,891 | 277,031 | 299,193 | | 增长率 yoy% 净利润（百万元） | 15% 7,798 | 25% 11,327 | 44% 9,210 | 27% 11,390 | 8% ...

【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】轻工张潇：出口链如期修复，更待个股 Alpha Email： 【固收】肖雨：十年复盘：城投年报有哪些变化？ 晨报内容回顾： [Table_Industry] [T[分Taa析bbll师ee__：TMi戴tlea志]in锋] 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 电话： 今日重点 >> 欢迎关注中泰研究所订阅号 晨会聚焦 - 2 - 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 2）定制：降本增效下盈利能力持续提升，关注具有持续增长动能公司。23 年定制板块收入端有所 分化，志邦家居收入增速领先，同比+13.5%；索菲亚、欧派家居、金牌厨柜、我乐家居同比分别 +3.95%、+1.35%、+2.59%、+2.70%；尚品宅配、好莱客收入仍承压。利润端来看，原材料成本低 位叠加降本增效作用持续释放下，利润端表现普遍优于收入端，其中索菲亚、欧派家居归母净利润 同比分别+18.5%、+12.92%。24Q1 收入端延续分化，若剔除基数效应看，索菲亚、志邦家居收入 较 22Q1 增长；利润端欧派、索菲亚表现靓丽，同比分别+43%、+58.6%。 3）软体：韧性凸显，关注估值高性价比。2023 年，需求具备 ...

【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】非银蒋峤：综述与各业务分析丨券商 24 一季报：投行投 资净利息承压，高基数下利润下滑三成 证券研究报告 2024 年 5 月 7 日 [Table_Industry] [T[分Taa析bbll师ee__：TMi戴tlea志]in锋] 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 电话： [b_Suy 今日预览 今日重点>> Email： 【非银】蒋峤：综述与各业务分析丨券商 24 一季报：投行投资净利息承压， 高基数下利润下滑三成 【金工】倪孝威：北上资金的前世今生-外资历史梳理和 A 股走势的阶段因 果逻辑探讨 欢迎关注中泰研究所订阅号 研究分享>> 【零售】郑澄怀：4 月博收超出预期，黄金周客流略低于预期-2024 年 4 月博 彩数据跟踪点评 【轻工】张潇：出口链如期修复，更待个股 Alpha 晨报内容回顾： 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 今日重点 ►【非银】蒋峤：综述与各业务分析丨券商 24 一季报：投行投资净利息承压，高基数下利润下滑 三成 蒋峤｜中泰非银分析师 S0740517090005 券商 24 一季报业绩特点： 1、总体业绩：24Q1 营收同比-21.5%、环比- ...

Investment Rating - Buy rating (initiated) with a market price of HKD 6.84 [1] Core Views - Greentown Management Holdings is a leader in China's real estate light-asset development model, with a unique "3+3" business model that includes government, commercial, and capital-side project management, along with financial, industrial, and supply chain services [4] - The company has a concentrated shareholding structure, with Greentown China Holding Limited holding 71.28% of the shares, and has implemented two equity incentive plans to align management and shareholder interests [4] - Strong growth in core businesses, with 2023 revenue reaching RMB 3.3 billion, up 24.3% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 974 million, up 30.8% YoY [4] - The company has a diversified customer base, with government, state-owned enterprises, and financial institutions accounting for 69.4% of new project contracts in 2023 [4] Business Overview - Greentown Management Holdings is a pioneer in China's real estate light-asset development model, starting with urban village reconstruction in Hangzhou in 2005 and officially established in 2010 [8] - The company went public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in July 2020, becoming the first listed company in China's project management sector [8] - The "3+3" business model includes government, commercial, and capital-side project management, along with financial, industrial, and supply chain services [9] Financial Performance - Revenue in 2023 was RMB 3.3 billion, up 24.3% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 974 million, up 30.8% YoY [4] - Commercial project management is the main revenue driver, contributing RMB 2.35 billion in 2023, up 40.6% YoY [4] - The company's projects cover 122 cities across 29 provinces, with a total contracted construction area of 119.6 million square meters, up 17.9% YoY [4] Growth Prospects - The company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.246 billion, RMB 1.557 billion, and RMB 1.908 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 10.0x, 8.0x, and 6.5x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] Market Position - Greentown Management Holdings has maintained a market share of over 20% in the project management industry for eight consecutive years, ranking first in the industry [10] - The company's projects are concentrated in economically developed regions, with the Yangtze River Delta, Bohai Rim, and Pearl River Delta regions accounting for 77.7% of the total estimated salable value [25] Valuation - The company's valuation is supported by its strong market position, diversified customer base, and robust growth prospects, with a buy rating initiated [5]

血制品业务稳健，静待流感疫苗放量 华兰生物(002007)/生物制品 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年5月8日 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble：_T买itle入] (维持) [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e]及 估值 市场价格：19.53 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 4516.98 5341.87 6129.73 7216.10 8499.01 分析师：祝嘉琦 增长率yoy% 1.82% 18.26% 14.75% 17.72% 17.78% 执业证书编号：S0740519040001 净利润（百万元） 1076.27 1481.58 1741.03 2059.99 2412.58 电话：021-20315150 增长率yoy% -17.14% 37.66% 17.51% 18.32% 17.12% 每股收益（元） 0.59 0.81 0.95 1.13 1.32 Email：zhujq@zts.com.cn 每股现金流量 0.60 0.54 2.49 2.65 2.85 分析师：张楠 净资产收益率 9% 11% 12% ...