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业绩受行业景气拖累,数字测试机打开成长空间
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-05-06 02:20
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [17][22]. Core Views - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a downturn, leading to a 35% year-over-year decline in revenue and a 52% drop in net profit for the company in 2023. However, there are signs of recovery in the industrial, communication, and consumer electronics markets since the second half of 2023, with a gradual increase in orders [19][24]. - The company is expanding its product offerings, particularly with the new 8600 digital testing machine, which is expected to significantly enhance its market position in the SoC, RF chip, and MCU testing markets, with potential market space expansion exceeding four times [2][26]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 was 691 million yuan, down 35% year-over-year, with a net profit of 252 million yuan, a decrease of 52%. The gross margin was 72.5%, down 4.4 percentage points [24]. - For 2024, the company forecasts revenue of 835 million yuan and a net profit of 400 million yuan, with expected growth rates of 21% and 59% respectively [18][26]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities is projected to be 270 million yuan in 2024, with earnings per share expected to rise to 2.95 yuan [18][24]. Market Position - The company holds approximately 24% of the global mixed-signal and digital testing machine market, indicating significant room for growth [2]. - The STS8200 testing system is a leader in the domestic market for analog and power semiconductor testing, while the STS8300 system is gaining recognition in power management and mixed-signal IC testing [25].
CMP高增,减薄机等多品类打开第二成长曲线
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-05-06 02:20
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 15% in the next 6 to 12 months [13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.508 billion yuan for 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 52%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 724 million yuan, up 44% year-on-year [2]. - The company is a leading domestic CMP equipment manufacturer, with significant market share growth in various customer segments, leading to a 59% increase in CMP equipment sales to 2.278 billion yuan in 2023 [3]. - The company has a strong future revenue momentum, supported by a favorable inventory structure and increasing accounts receivable, indicating good operational health [3]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2022A: 1.649 billion yuan - 2023A: 2.508 billion yuan - 2024E: 3.461 billion yuan - 2025E: 4.603 billion yuan - 2026E: 5.800 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates are projected to decline from 105% in 2022 to 26% in 2026 [1]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2022A: 502 million yuan - 2023A: 724 million yuan - 2024E: 990 million yuan - 2025E: 1.350 billion yuan - 2026E: 1.680 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates are projected to decline from 153% in 2022 to 25% in 2026 [1]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 6.23 yuan - 2024E: 8.49 yuan - 2025E: 10.57 yuan [1]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 54.1 in 2022 to 16.1 in 2026, indicating improving valuation as earnings grow [1]. Product Development and Market Expansion - The company is actively upgrading its equipment based on customer needs and has launched new products, including the Versatile-GP300 thinning and polishing machine, which is gaining traction in the market [4][5]. - The company has successfully developed and shipped its first 12-inch single wafer cleaning machine, indicating progress in diversifying its product offerings [5]. Future Profitability Projections - The report projects net profits of 990 million yuan for 2024, 1.350 billion yuan for 2025, and 1.680 billion yuan for 2026, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [9].
订单节奏影响一季度业绩,前道track+清洗进展良好
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-05-06 02:16
[Table_Finance 公司盈利预测及估值 1] 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入(百万元) 1,385 1,717 2,369 3,175 4,032 增长率 yoy% 67% 24% 38% 34% 27% 净利润(百万元) 200 251 350 500 620 增长率 yoy% 159% 25% 40% 43% 24% 每股收益(元) 1.45 1.82 2.54 3.63 4.50 每股现金流量 1.40 -4.08 2.93 1.03 1.87 净资产收益率 10% 11% 13% 16% 16% P/E 62.0 49.5 35.5 24.8 20.0 P/B 5.9 5.2 4.6 3.9 3.3 备注:每股指标按照最新股本数全面摊薄,股价按 4 月 30 日收盘价进行计算 芯源微:订单节奏影响一季度业绩,前道 track+清洗进展良好 执业证书编号:S0740521120001 [Table_Title] 评级:买入(维持) 市场价格:90.02 元/股 芯源微(688037.SH)/电子 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 5 月 3 日 ...
24Q1延续高增态势,800V时代碳化硅龙头高速启航
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-05-06 02:15
天岳先进:24Q1 延续高增态势,800V时代碳化硅龙头高速启航 天岳先进(688234.SH)/电子 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年5月4日 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble:_T买itle入] (维持) [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e1及] 估值 市场价格:55.54元/股 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入(百万元) 417 1,251 2,410 3,450 5,000 分析师:王芳 增长率yoy% -16% 200% 93% 43% 45% 执业证书编号:S0740521120002 净利润(百万元) -175 -46 147 374 559 Email:wangfang02@zts.com.cn 增长率yoy% -295% 74% 422% 154% 49% 每股收益(元) -0.41 -0.11 0.34 0.87 1.30 分析师:杨旭 每股现金流量 -0.14 0.03 -3.15 0.90 1.24 执业证书编号:S0740521120001 净资产收益率 -3% -1% 3% 7% 9% Email:yangxu01 ...
短期业绩承压,车规产品有望持续放量
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-05-06 02:15
斯达半导:短期业绩承压,车规产品有望持续放量 斯达半导(603290.SH)/电子 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年5月4日 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble:_T买itle入] (维持) [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e1及] 估值 市场价格:139.38元/股 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入(百万元) 2,705 3,663 4,857 5,828 6,994 分析师:王芳 增长率yoy% 59% 35% 33% 20% 20% 执业证书编号:S0740521120002 净利润(百万元) 818 911 1,020 1,280 1,530 Email:wangfang02@zts.com.cn 增长率yoy% 105% 11% 12% 26% 20% 每股收益(元) 4.78 5.33 5.96 7.49 8.95 分析师:杨旭 每股现金流量 3.91 2.24 3.60 6.42 7.48 执业证书编号:S0740521120001 净资产收益率 14% 14% 14% 15% 15% Email:yangxu01@zts.com ...
华峰测控:业绩受行业景气拖累,数字测试机打开成长空间
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-05-06 02:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of 112.00 CNY per share [1]. Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to industry downturns, but there are signs of order recovery in Q1 2024 [3][16]. - Demand from the new energy sector is expected to drive growth for the STS8200 model, while the STS8300 is entering a phase of increased production [3][16]. - The introduction of the STS8600 digital testing machine opens up significant growth opportunities in the market [3][17]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic testing machine market, with new products likely to capture opportunities in the SoC market, indicating a broad long-term growth potential [17]. Summary by Sections Financial Overview - Total shares outstanding: 135 million - Market capitalization: 15,161 million CNY - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 691 million CNY, a decrease of 35% year-on-year, with a net profit of 252 million CNY, down 52% [3][14]. - The gross margin for 2023 is reported at 72.47%, a decline of 4.4 percentage points [15]. Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024 and 2025 are 835 million CNY and 1,075 million CNY, respectively, with expected growth rates of 21% and 29% [14]. - Net profit is forecasted to recover to 400 million CNY in 2024 and 500 million CNY in 2025, with growth rates of 59% and 25% [14]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 1.86 CNY in 2023 to 2.95 CNY in 2024 and 3.69 CNY in 2025 [14]. Market Position - The global market for mixed-signal testing machines is valued at 630 million USD, with the company holding approximately 24% market share [17]. - The company is expanding its product line with the STS8600, which has a testing capacity of 1,024 analog channels and 5,120 digital channels, significantly increasing its market potential [17].
自主线束龙头,盈利拐点已至,迎量价利齐升
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-05-06 02:00
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of 26.93 yuan [24]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading supplier of automotive wiring harnesses, with a comprehensive product range covering all categories of vehicle wiring harnesses [12]. - The company has experienced significant revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 44.03% from 2020 to 2023 [12]. - The report highlights the increasing demand for high-voltage wiring harnesses driven by the electrification of vehicles and the rise of smart technologies, which are expected to enhance the average selling price (ASP) per vehicle [28][42]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - Electrification is driving an increase in the value of high-voltage wiring harnesses per vehicle, as electric vehicles require more high-voltage components compared to traditional fuel vehicles [28][42]. - The trend towards smart vehicles is leading to an increase in the ASP of low-voltage wiring harnesses due to the growing number of electronic components in vehicles [28]. - The industry is currently dominated by Japanese suppliers, with domestic suppliers gradually gaining market share due to their responsiveness and cost advantages [28]. Financial Analysis - The company's revenue has shown significant growth since 2020, increasing from 1.531 billion yuan in 2020 to 4.003 billion yuan in 2023, attributed to the recovery of the automotive industry post-pandemic and the continuous support from both new energy and traditional fuel vehicle clients [14]. - The company has turned a profit in the third quarter of 2023, marking a recovery from previous losses [14]. Growth Logic - The company has secured new clients, including Huawei and Li Auto, which are expected to drive significant volume growth [9]. - The integration of wiring harnesses and high-voltage connectors is anticipated to enhance the ASP per vehicle [17]. - The company is expanding its product offerings from low-voltage to high-voltage wiring harnesses, which is expected to further increase profitability [17]. Competitive Landscape - The company is strategically positioned to benefit from the growing demand from major clients in the new energy vehicle sector, including partnerships with leading brands like Li Auto and Huawei [40]. - The report notes that the company has a stable and concentrated shareholding structure, which supports coordinated business development [57]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 6.216 billion yuan, 7.608 billion yuan, and 8.925 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding gross profit margins expected to improve [64]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, indicating substantial growth in both revenue and net profit over the next few years [26].
华海清科:CMP高增,减薄机等多品类打开第二成长曲线
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-05-06 02:00
华海清科:CMP 高增,减薄机等多品类打开第二成长曲线 华海清科(688120.SH)/电子 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年5月4日 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble:_T买itle入] (维持) [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e1及] 估值 市场价格:170.68元/股 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入(百万元) 1,649 2,508 3,461 4,603 5,800 分析师:王芳 增长率yoy% 105% 52% 38% 33% 26% 执业证书编号:S0740521120002 净利润(百万元) 502 724 990 1,350 1,680 Email:wangfang02@zts.com.cn 增长率yoy% 153% 44% 37% 36% 25% 每股收益(元) 3.16 4.55 6.23 8.49 10.57 分析师:杨旭 每股现金流量 0.16 4.11 4.18 7.84 7.59 执业证书编号:S0740521120001 净资产收益率 10% 13% 15% 17% 18% Email:yangxu01@zt ...
分红提升超预期,需求回暖在路上
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-05-06 02:00
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 15% within the next 6 to 12 months [12]. Core Views - The company has announced an unexpected increase in dividends, indicating a focus on shareholder returns. The proposed cash dividend per share is 0.5 yuan, which represents a significant increase compared to the previous year [10]. - The company reported a revenue of 468.25 billion yuan for 2023, a decrease of 10.29% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 19.15 billion yuan, down 46.72% year-on-year [10]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in demand, with projected revenue growth of 5% in 2024 and 8% in 2025 [10]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023: 468,247 million yuan - 2024E: 491,696 million yuan (5% growth) - 2025E: 530,978 million yuan (8% growth) - 2026E: 573,401 million yuan (8% growth) [3][10] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023: 19,150 million yuan - 2024E: 22,110 million yuan (15% growth) - 2025E: 25,030 million yuan (13% growth) - 2026E: 28,820 million yuan (15% growth) [3][10] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 0.87 yuan - 2024E: 1.00 yuan - 2025E: 1.14 yuan - 2026E: 1.31 yuan [10] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023: 5% - 2024E: 5% - 2025E: 6% - 2026E: 6% [10] - **Debt and Equity**: - Total liabilities for 2023 are projected at 74,503 million yuan, with total equity at 38,624 million yuan [3]. - **Market Price**: The current market price is 7.38 yuan, with a market capitalization of 16,267 million yuan [10]. Investment Highlights - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and expanding high-value-added categories, which is expected to support future growth [10]. - The supply chain management business is anticipated to grow, despite a decrease in revenue, with an improvement in gross margins [10]. Conclusion - The report indicates a cautious but optimistic outlook for the company, with expectations of recovery in demand and a focus on shareholder returns through increased dividends [10][12].
共振成长趋势不变,规模与经营质量双升
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-05-06 02:00
共振成长趋势不变,规模与经营质量双升 蓝晓科技(300487.SZ)/新 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年5 月3日 材料 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble:_T买itle入] (维持) [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e1及] 估值 市场价格:46.81 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入(百万元) 1,920 2,489 3,226 4,037 5,023 分析师:孙颖 增长率yoy% 61% 30% 30% 25% 24% 执业证书编号:S0740519070002 归母净利润(百万元) 538 717 1,009 1,314 1,640 Email:sunying@zts.com.cn 增长率yoy% 73% 33% 41% 30% 25% 每股收益(元) 1.06 1.42 2.00 2.60 3.25 分析师:韩宇 净资产收益率 20% 21% 23% 23% 23% 执业证书编号:S0740522040003 P/E 44.0 33.0 23.4 18.0 14.4 Email:hanyu@zts.com.cn P/B 8.7 ...