Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a market price of 16.43 [2] Core Insights - The company's revenue growth turned positive in Q1 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, reflecting improvements across various income segments [5][9] - Net interest income grew by 5.1% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline in net interest margin compared to the previous year [5][17] - The company is expected to maintain stable growth in net interest income under its "commercial bank + investment bank" strategy, with potential for increased non-interest income from direct financing [7][29] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2022A: Revenue of 221,903 million, Net Profit of 91,377 million - 2023A: Revenue of 210,245 million, Net Profit of 77,116 million - 2024E: Revenue of 214,396 million, Net Profit of 74,771 million - 2025E: Revenue of 214,303 million, Net Profit of 74,757 million - 2026E: Revenue of 214,401 million, Net Profit of 74,751 million [3] - **Key Ratios**: - Return on Equity (ROE) is projected to decline from 14.52% in 2022 to 8.78% by 2026 [3] - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 4.56X in 2024E and 4.57X in 2025E [7] Asset and Liability Structure - The bank's total credit issuance in 2023 was 4,780.5 billion, with Q1 2024 issuance at 863.3 billion, indicating a focus on corporate loans [6][18] - The proportion of loans in interest-earning assets increased to 54.6% in Q1 2024, with corporate loans contributing significantly to new credit [6][19] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.07% in Q1 2024, with a slight decrease in the annualized NPL generation rate to 1.06% [29] - The provision coverage ratio improved to 245.51% in Q1 2024, indicating a robust buffer against potential loan losses [29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][4]. Core Views - The company is adjusting its profit forecasts due to high gold prices affecting demand for gold jewelry and short-term sales of non-gold categories being constrained by economic weakness. Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are set at 68.7 billion, 77.2 billion, and 85.9 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.5%, 12.4%, and 11.2% respectively. Net profit is expected to be 4.3 billion, 4.8 billion, and 5.3 billion yuan, with growth rates of 29.4%, 10.5%, and 10.2% respectively. EPS is projected at 0.49, 0.54, and 0.59 yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 12.7, 11.5, and 10.4 [2][5]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2023, the company achieved revenue of 1.401 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.14%, and a net profit of 0.2 billion yuan, up 157.23%. However, profit performance was below expectations due to lower-than-expected performance in the women's bag business and a goodwill impairment of 0.39 billion yuan. In Q1 2024, revenue reached 1.796 billion yuan, a 17.87% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 0.131 billion yuan, a 5.47% increase, which was in line with expectations [2][5]. Margin and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin in Q1 2024 was 24.92%, down 3.11 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 7.35%, down 0.99 percentage points year-on-year. The decline in gross margin is attributed to changes in product structure, including an increase in the proportion of traditional gold jewelry and a rise in the share of one-price gold in fashion jewelry. Despite this, the expansion of the franchise model has led to lower expense levels, which is beneficial for profit margins [2][5]. Store Expansion and Growth Logic - In 2023, the company accelerated its store expansion, opening a net of 241 new stores, representing a 20.8% year-on-year increase. The number of self-operated stores decreased by 50, while franchise stores increased by 291. The current low base of stores and the rapid expansion of the franchise model are expected to drive revenue growth [2][5].

门店拓展提速，金价高位抑制短期需求 ——周大生23年及24Q1报业绩点评 周大生（002867.SZ）/商贸零 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年4月29日 售 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble：_T买itle入] （维持） [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e]及 估值 市场价格：16.19 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 11,118 16,290 18,548 20,633 22,617 分析师：苏畅 执业证书编号：S0740523110001 增长率yoy% 21.4% 46.5% 13.9% 11.2% 9.6% 归母净利润（百万元） 1,091 1,316 1,485 1,688 1,857 Email：suchang@zts.com.cn 增长率yoy% -10.9% 20.7% 12.9% 13.7% 10.0% 每股收益（元） 1.00 1.20 1.36 1.54 1.69 每股现金流量 0.93 0.13 1.02 0.95 1.17 净资产收益率 18.0% 20.6% 20.8% 21.7% 21.6% P/ ...

美国滞胀预期边际升温，国内进一步释放需求政策，板块上行逻辑持续强化 有色金属 证券研究报告/行业周报 2024年04月28日 行业评级：增持 投资要点 分析师：郭中伟 ◼ 【本周关键词】：美国Q1 GDP超预期走低，国内进一步释放需求刺激政策 执业证书编号：S0740521110004 ◼ 投资建议：趋势的延续，维持行业“增持”评级 1）贵金属：本周美国滞胀预期升温，市场降低年内降息预期，但目前美国十年期国 Email：guozw@zts.com.cn 债实际收益率已处于 2%左右的历史高位，降息空间终将打开并带来实际利率的趋势 下行，而去全球化的背景下，美元信用持续弱化也将支撑贵金属价格上行至新高度。 分析师：谢鸿鹤 2）大宗金属：国内进一步释放需求刺激政策，同时海外经济整体保持韧性，旺季整 执业证书编号：S0740517080003 体去库的趋势有望延续——在供给瓶颈下，基本金属终将在弱复苏带动下，迎来新一 Email：xiehh@zts.com.cn 轮景气周期，尤其是铜铝更是如此，我们坚定看好2024年大宗板块的投资表现。 ◼ 行情回顾：大宗价格涨跌互现：1）周内，LME 铜、铝、铅、锌、锡、镍本周涨 ...

生益科技：结构优化改善Q1业绩，布局新品增强自身成长 生益科技（600183.SH）/电子 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年4月28日 评级：买入 （维持） 公司盈利预测及 估值 市场价格：16.83元/股 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 分析师：王芳 营业收入（百万元） 18,014 16,586 18,840 21,100 23,533 增长率yoy% -11% -8% 13.6% 12.0% 11.5% 执业证书编号：S0740521120002 净利润（百万元） 1,531 1,164 1,820 2,226 2,658 Email：wangfang02@zts.com.cn 增长率yoy% -46% -24% 56.4% 22.3% 19.4% 每股收益（元） 0.65 0.49 0.77 0.94 1.13 每股现金流量 1.20 1.16 1.20 1.12 1.30 分析师：刘博文 净资产收益率 10% 7% 11% 13% 14% 执业证书编号：S0740524030001 P/E 25.9 34.09 21.80 17.83 14.92 P/B 2.9 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has shown steady growth in net profit, achieving a 12.3% year-on-year increase in Q1 2024, supported by a favorable bond market that boosted non-interest income [3][8] - The asset quality remains excellent, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.84% in Q1 2024, indicating stability [26] - The company has adjusted its revenue and profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025, reflecting a more conservative outlook on credit growth and profitability [5] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2022A: Revenue of 12,045 million, Net Profit of 3,918 million - 2023A: Revenue of 11,697 million, Net Profit of 4,601 million - 2024E: Revenue of 11,811 million, Net Profit of 5,153 million - 2025E: Revenue of 12,645 million, Net Profit of 5,668 million - 2026E: Revenue of 13,280 million, Net Profit of 6,238 million [1] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: 1.07 - 2023A: 1.25 - 2024E: 1.41 - 2025E: 1.55 - 2026E: 1.70 [1] - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - 2022A: 6.67 - 2023A: 5.68 - 2024E: 5.07 - 2025E: 4.61 - 2026E: 4.19 [1] Asset Quality and Loan Performance - The company has maintained a low non-performing loan ratio of 0.84% and a high provision coverage ratio of approximately 491.65% [26] - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a significant increase in loan disbursement, with a quarterly increase of 58.2% year-on-year [18][20] - The structure of loans has shifted towards corporate lending, with corporate loans accounting for 83.9% of new loans in 2023 [20] Deposit and Funding Structure - The company has seen a strong increase in deposits, with a total of 472.6 billion added in Q1 2024, representing a 28.7% increase year-on-year [18] - The trend towards term deposits continues, with term deposits increasing by 25.2% year-on-year, making up 70.4% of total deposits [23] Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income grew by 5.4% year-on-year in Q1 2024, primarily driven by an increase in trading income [24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qilu Bank, emphasizing its strong performance and growth potential in the context of the Shandong province's economic policies [3]. Core Insights - Qilu Bank's revenue growth rate is projected to remain above 5%, with net profit growth expected to exceed 15% [7]. - The bank is focusing on county-level finance and innovation-driven finance, aiming for differentiated competition in a challenging market environment [3]. - The bank's non-interest income is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 20%, with a positive trend in fee income [4]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Growth**: In Q1 2024, Qilu Bank reported a revenue increase of 5.5% year-on-year, while net profit rose by 16.1% [7]. - **Net Interest Income**: The quarterly net interest income increased by 4.7%, with an annualized net interest margin maintained at 1.53% [12]. - **Asset and Liability Management**: The bank's interest-earning assets grew by 18.5% year-on-year, with loans increasing by 15.8% in Q1 2024 [14]. - **Non-Interest Income**: The growth rate of non-interest income remained above 20%, with fee income turning positive [4]. Asset Quality - **Non-Performing Loans**: The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.25% in Q1 2024, with a coverage ratio exceeding 300% [4][14]. - **Loan Composition**: The bank's loan portfolio is increasingly focused on public sector loans, with significant growth in green and innovation-related loans [19]. Dividend Policy - The bank's dividend payout ratio increased to 26.73%, with an estimated static dividend yield of 5.71% for 2024 [4][3].

三环集团：景气度回升业绩进一步改善，看好龙头公司高弹性 三环集团（300408.SZ）/电子 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年04月28日 评级：买入 （维持） 公司盈利预测及 估值 市场价格：26.09元/股 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 分析师：王芳 营业收入（百万元） 5,149 5,727 7,199 8,987 10,305 增长率yoy% -17% 11% 26% 25% 15% 执业证书编号：S0740521120002 净利润（百万元） 1,505 1,581 1,929 2,514 2,923 Email：wangfang02@zts.com.cn 增长率yoy% -25% 5% 22% 30% 16% 每股收益（元） 0.79 0.82 1.01 1.31 1.53 每股现金流量 1.08 0.90 0.95 1.09 1.39 分析师：刘博文 净资产收益率 9% 9% 10% 11% 12% 执业证书编号：S0740524030001 P/E 33.2 31.6 25.9 19.9 17.1 P/B 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.0 Email ...

、 计算机行业24Q1持仓分析：算力、低空等新质生产力加仓明显 计算机 证券研究报告/行业点评报告 2024年04月28日 [T评ab级le_：M增ain持] （维持） [投Ta资ble要_S点um mary] 分析师：孙行臻 ◼ 计算机行业重仓股配置比例及规模环比下降。1）重仓比例：24Q1计算机重仓比例 执业证书编号：S0740524030002 环比下降1.38pct，同比下降5.04pct，有较大上升空间。2）排名方面：24Q1计算 机重仓比例排名从第 5 名下滑至第 10 名，仍处于中上游位次，而环比增长率排名 电话：13430277882 在行业中位次靠后。3）重仓规模：自 23Q1 计算机重仓股总规模持续回落，24Q1 计算机行业重仓股规模为 981.39 亿元，相较 23Q4 下降 387.60 亿元，环比下降 Email：sunxz@zts.com.cn 28.31%，相较23Q1下降840.19亿元，同比下降132.99%。 ◼ 行业持续减仓，但 Top10 重仓股集中度呈上升趋势。1）净值方面，24Q1 前十名 规模总和为610.80亿元，相较23Q4下降23.08%；2）比例方面，To ...

美国滞胀预期边际升温，国内进一步释放需求政策，板块上行逻辑持续强化 有色金属 证券研究报告/行业周报 2024年04月28日 行业评级：增持 投资要点 分析师：郭中伟 ◼ 【本周关键词】：美国Q1 GDP超预期走低，国内进一步释放需求刺激政策 执业证书编号：S0740521110004 ◼ 投资建议：趋势的延续，维持行业“增持”评级 1）贵金属：本周美国滞胀预期升温，市场降低年内降息预期，但目前美国十年期国 Email：guozw@zts.com.cn 债实际收益率已处于 2%左右的历史高位，降息空间终将打开并带来实际利率的趋势 下行，而去全球化的背景下，美元信用持续弱化也将支撑贵金属价格上行至新高度。 分析师：谢鸿鹤 2）大宗金属：国内进一步释放需求刺激政策，同时海外经济整体保持韧性，旺季整 执业证书编号：S0740517080003 体去库的趋势有望延续——在供给瓶颈下，基本金属终将在弱复苏带动下，迎来新一 Email：xiehh@zts.com.cn 轮景气周期，尤其是铜铝更是如此，我们坚定看好2024年大宗板块的投资表现。 ◼ 行情回顾：大宗价格涨跌互现：1）周内，LME 铜、铝、铅、锌、锡、镍本周涨 ...