兴森科技：23年受费用端拖累业绩承压，坚定看好公司FCBGA业务 兴森科技（002436.SZ）/电子 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年4月25日 评级：买入 （维持） 公司盈利预测及 估值 市场价格：11.38元/股 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 分析师：王芳 营业收入（百万元） 5,354 5,360 6,747 7,881 9,135 增长率yoy% 6% 0% 26% 17% 16% 执业证书编号：S0740521120002 净利润（百万元） 526 211 308 510 766 Email：wangfang02@zts.com.cn 增长率yoy% -15% -60% 46% 65% 50% 每股收益（元） 0.31 0.13 0.18 0.30 0.45 每股现金流量 0.43 0.07 0.37 0.12 1.11 分析师：刘博文 净资产收益率 7% 3% 5% 9% 12% 执业证书编号：S0740524030001 P/E 36.6 91.0 62.3 37.7 25.1 P/B 2.9 3.6 4.0 3.8 3.5 Email：liubw@zts ...

[Table_Finance] 公司盈利预测及估值 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 1,525 1,630 1,959 2,294 2,586 增长率 yoy% 11% 7% 20% 17% 13% 净利润（百万元） 222 214 248 293 338 增长率 yoy% -29% -4% 16% 18% 15% 每股收益（元） 0.89 0.85 0.99 1.17 1.35 每股现金流量 0.77 0.98 1.28 1.30 1.49 净资产收益率 11% 10% 10% 11% 11% P/E 18.1 18.8 16.2 13.7 11.9 P/B 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 备注：股价选取 2024 年 4 月 25 日收盘。 [基本状况 Table_Profit] 总股本(百万股) 250 流通股本(百万股) 248 市价(元) 16.06 市值(百万元) 4,017 流通市值(百万元) 3,983 执业证书编号：S0740517030001 电话：021-20315733 分析师：晏诗雨 执业证书编号：S07405230700 ...

[Table_Title] 评级：买入（维持） 行稳致远，势能向上 [Table_Finance] 公司盈利预测及估值 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 1,462 2,065 2,855 3,599 4,438 增长率 yoy% 32% 41% 38% 26% 23% 净利润（百万元） 125 210 300 392 503 增长率 yoy% 47% 68% 43% 31% 28% 每股收益（元） 0.28 0.46 0.66 0.87 1.11 每股现金流量 0.21 0.35 0.43 0.33 1.43 净资产收益率 13% 16% 20% 21% 22% P/E 54.6 32.5 22.7 17.3 13.5 P/B 7.0 5.2 4.5 3.7 3.1 备注：股价选取 2024 年 4 月 25 日收盘价 市场价格：15.09 元 [Table_Profit] 基本状况 总股本(百万股) 451 流通股本(百万股) 303 市价(元) 15.09 市值(百万元) 6,807 流通市值(百万元) 4,570 劲仔食品（003000.SZ）/食 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [11][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.678 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.77%, and a net profit of 449 million yuan, up 24.32% year-on-year. For Q1 2024, revenue reached 617 million yuan, a 20.53% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 103 million yuan, growing 30.35% year-on-year [3][6]. - The company is increasing its R&D investment, which amounted to 460 million yuan in 2023, a 14.66% increase year-on-year, accounting for 17.25% of revenue. This investment focuses on high-precision positioning chips and autonomous driving products [4][5]. - The company is expanding its overseas business rapidly, with foreign revenue reaching 720 million yuan in 2023, a 47.51% increase year-on-year, contributing to 26.85% of total revenue [23]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 2.678 billion yuan and a net profit of 449 million yuan, with projections for 2024-2026 showing net profits of 576 million yuan, 763 million yuan, and 941 million yuan respectively [6][31]. - The gross margin for 2023 was 57.8%, with a net margin of 16.57%, indicating improved profitability [14]. R&D and Competitive Position - The company has established five R&D bases in China and the UK, employing 615 R&D personnel, which is 33.35% of its total workforce. The focus is on developing core technologies in high-precision GNSS algorithms and enhancing its product offerings [5][6]. Market Expansion - The company is actively pursuing new business models, including SaaS subscription services, and is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for high-precision navigation in traditional industries and emerging markets like low-altitude economy [6][23].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has released an action plan titled "Enhancing Quality and Efficiency to Return Value," focusing on improving long-term returns for investors and maintaining stable cash dividends [8][9] - The company's Q1 2024 performance showed a decrease in revenue and net profit year-on-year, but a significant increase quarter-on-quarter, indicating a potential recovery trend [6][9] Financial Performance Summary - Total shares outstanding: 13,259 million; circulating shares: 9,152 million; market price: 11.54 yuan; market capitalization: 153,005 million yuan; circulating market capitalization: 105,614 million yuan [2] - For Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 45.395 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.27% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23.49% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2024 was 4.970 billion yuan, down 30.55% year-on-year but up 74.61% quarter-on-quarter [6] Business Segment Performance Coal Business - Self-produced coal output in Q1 2024 was 32.73 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [7] - The unit price for self-produced coal was 598.0 yuan/ton, down 10.9% year-on-year [7] - The unit cost for self-produced coal increased by 6.8% year-on-year to 291.0 yuan/ton [7] Chemical Business - In Q1 2024, methanol production was 412,000 tons, down 17.4% year-on-year, with a unit price of 1,675.0 yuan/ton, down 8.6% [8] - The profit margin for polypropylene improved significantly, with a unit profit of 1,299.0 yuan/ton, up 103.3% year-on-year [8] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 211.246 billion yuan, 217.644 billion yuan, and 225.383 billion yuan, respectively [9] - Expected net profits for the same period are 21.841 billion yuan, 23.474 billion yuan, and 25.549 billion yuan, respectively [9] - The current stock price of 11.54 yuan corresponds to a P/E ratio of 7.0X for 2024, 6.5X for 2025, and 6.0X for 2026 [9]

指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 增长率 yoy% 13% 15% 16% 15% 14% 增长率 yoy% -8% 120% 23% 21% 21% 每股现金流量 0.41 1.52 2.07 1.67 2.05 P/E 69.4 31.5 25.6 21.1 17.5 备注：股价选取 2024 年 04 月 24 日收盘价 中宠股份(002891.SZ)/农林牧渔 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 04 月 24 日 [Table_Title] 评级：买入（维持） 市场价格：24.99 元 分析师：姚雪梅 执业证书编号： S0740522080005 电话：021-20315138 Email：yaoxm@zts.com.cn 分析师：严瑾 执业证书编号： S0740523010001 电话：021-20315125 Email：yanjin @zts.com.cn 公司持有该股票比例 相关报告 1、中宠股份：从生产制造商到品牌运 营商 2、中宠股份中报点评：海外出口修复， 国内收入占比再提升 投资要点 ◼ 事件：公司发布 2023 年年报及 2024 年一季报。202 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 13.98 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company's performance in the coal sector has been negatively impacted by declining prices, while non-coal business operations have shown improvement [1][16]. - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 10,978 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 13.11%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 969 million CNY, down 44.3% year-on-year [3][14]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting revenues of 13,259 million CNY, 14,634 million CNY, and 16,035 million CNY respectively, with net profits of 1,435 million CNY, 1,771 million CNY, and 2,143 million CNY [4][14]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a total revenue of 10,978 million CNY, a decrease of 13.11% year-on-year, and a net profit of 969 million CNY, down 44.3% year-on-year [3]. - The basic earnings per share for 2023 was 1.34 CNY, reflecting a decline of 44.40% year-on-year [3]. - The weighted average return on equity (ROE) was 7.83%, a decrease of 7.54 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Production and Sales - In 2023, the company produced 8,025,500 tons of raw coal, a decrease of 1.96% year-on-year, while the sales volume of commodity coal increased by 4.50% year-on-year to 6,054,300 tons [4]. - The average selling price of commodity coal in 2023 was 1,167.15 CNY/ton, down 23.15% year-on-year [4]. Business Segments - The power generation segment saw a year-on-year increase in output of 24.47%, with sales revenue of 1,285 million CNY, up 20.82% year-on-year [4]. - The aluminum products segment reported a processing volume of 97,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.12%, but faced a net loss of 39 million CNY [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised its profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 1,435 million CNY in 2024, 1,771 million CNY in 2025, and 2,143 million CNY in 2026 [4]. - The current stock price of 13.98 CNY corresponds to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 7.0X, 5.7X, and 4.7X for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in stock price compared to the benchmark index over the next 6 to 12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing AI wave, with a continuous deepening of its business layout, leading to growth in various product lines [2][3]. - The company maintained its position as the global leader in smartphone and tablet shipments, with steady growth in laptop market share and significant revenue from data services [2][3]. - The report highlights the company's strong performance in ODM (Original Design Manufacturer) for smartphones and laptops, with a projected increase in market penetration driven by AI [2][3]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2022: 92,646 million - 2023: 85,338 million (down 8% YoY) - 2024E: 98,139 million (up 15% YoY) - 2025E: 118,454 million (up 20.7% YoY) - 2026E: 144,277 million (up 21.8% YoY) [3][4] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2022: 2,564 million - 2023: 2,707 million (up 6% YoY) - 2024E: 3,092 million (up 14.2% YoY) - 2025E: 3,659 million (up 18.3% YoY) - 2026E: 4,445 million (up 21.5% YoY) [3][4] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024E: 3.73 - 2025E: 4.26 - 2026E: 5.04 [3][4] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023: 13% - 2024E: 13% - 2025E: 14% - 2026E: 14% [3][4] - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - 2024E: 19.6 - 2025E: 18.6 - 2026E: 16.3 [3][4] - **Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio**: - 2024E: 4.1 - 2025E: 2.4 - 2026E: 2.1 [3][4] Business Developments - The company has successfully penetrated the Japanese market and several leading domestic automotive enterprises, maintaining its leadership in the global smartphone and tablet markets [2][3]. - The report notes that the company is positioned to benefit from the AI PC trend, with expectations of significant growth in ODM shipments for laptops and smartphones [2][3]. - The company is also recognized as a leading player in the server manufacturing sector, with strong demand from domestic internet giants [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [5]. Core Insights - The company is projected to experience significant revenue growth, with estimates of $6.39 billion in 2023, increasing to $13.54 billion by 2026, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 26.5% [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from $2.54 in 2023 to $7.55 in 2026, reflecting strong profitability improvements [5]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 37.5 in 2024 to 12.6 by 2026, suggesting that the stock may become more attractive as earnings grow [5]. - The report highlights a robust growth trajectory in the company's core business segments, with year-over-year growth rates projected at 72.6% for 2023 and gradually tapering to 18.2% by 2026 [5]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: $6.39 billion in 2023, $9.05 billion in 2024, $11.45 billion in 2025, and $13.54 billion in 2026 [5]. - The company is expected to achieve an EBIT margin of 18.1% in 2023, improving to 21.1% by 2026, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [5]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to rise from 12.3% in 2023 to 21.2% in 2026, reflecting improved profitability and capital management [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [15]. Core Views - The company reported stable growth in its 2023 annual report and Q1 2024 results, with a revenue of 9,801 million yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.4%. However, the net profit decreased by 4.9% to 333 million yuan [3][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from capacity expansion and a focus on high-end products, which will drive steady growth in performance and market share in the long term [9]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: - 2023 revenue was 9,801 million yuan, with a growth rate of 14.4%. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 11,000 million yuan, 12,100 million yuan, and 13,274 million yuan, respectively [3][12]. - The net profit for 2023 was 333 million yuan, with projections of 550 million yuan, 618 million yuan, and 687 million yuan for the following years [3][12]. - The gross margin for 2023 was 33.15%, with a slight increase expected in the coming years [4][12]. - **Cash Flow and Efficiency**: - The operating cash flow for 2023 was 12,420 million yuan, showing a significant increase of 217.08% year-on-year. However, Q1 2024 saw a negative cash flow of 1,450 million yuan due to increased inventory [5][11]. - Inventory turnover days improved to 89.02 days in 2023, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [5]. - **Cost Structure**: - The company's selling, general, and administrative expenses increased, with the selling expense ratio rising to 22.51% in 2023, primarily due to increased promotional activities [5][12]. - **Product Segmentation**: - The personal care segment showed significant growth, with a revenue increase of 172.55% year-on-year, while the household paper segment grew by 15.71% [9]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - The projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 20.8, 18.5, and 16.7, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [3][12].