[Table_Industry] [T[分Taa析bbll师ee__：TMi戴tlea志]in锋] 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 电话： 【固收】肖雨：2023 年各省市经济财政债务"成绩单" 晨会聚焦 晨会聚焦 晨会聚焦 - 4 - 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 [b_Suy 今日预览 欢迎关注中泰研究所订阅号 证券研究报告 2024 年 4 月 11 日 今日重点>> 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 - 2 - 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 - 3 - 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 中泰证券股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）具有中国证券监督管理委员会许可的证券投资咨 询业务资格。 。本公司不会因接收人收到本报告而视其为客户。 本报告基于本公司及其研究人员认为可信的公开资料或实地调研资料，反映了作者的研究观点，力 求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响。本公司力求但不保证这些信息的准确性 和完整性，且本报告中的资料、意见、预测均反映报告初次公开发布时的判断，可能会随时调整。 本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修改，投资者应当自行关注相应的更新或修 改。本 ...

执业证书编号：S0740520110001 Email：xiaoyu@zts.com.cn 联系人：张可迎 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 - 2 - 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|----------------|-------------------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------| | 图表 1 ：通胀数据概览（ \nCPI | % ） \n2024-03 | 2024-02 | 2024-01 | 2023-03 | 2023-02 | 2023-01 | | CPI 环比 | | -1.0 1.0 0.3 -0.3 -0.5 0.8 | | | | | | CPI 同比 | | 0.1 0.7 -0.8 0.7 1.0 2.1 | | | | | | 食品 | | -2.7 -0.9 -5.9 2.4 2.6 6.2 | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [7]. Core Insights - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 47.862 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.24%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.076 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.77% [2]. - The operating cash flow saw a significant increase, reaching 3.62 billion yuan, up 547.5% year-on-year, driven by a reduction in raw material prices and improved operational efficiency [2]. - The company is enhancing its self-supply ratio of 3C battery cells, which is expected to increase product value and improve margins [2]. - The company plans to repurchase shares worth 300 to 500 million yuan as part of its strategy to reward investors [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 60.019 billion yuan, 72.357 billion yuan, and 87.878 billion yuan, respectively, with expected growth rates of 25%, 21%, and 21% [1]. - The net profit forecast for the same period is 1.411 billion yuan, 1.757 billion yuan, and 2.155 billion yuan, with growth rates of 31%, 24%, and 23% [1]. - The company's gross margin for 2023 was 14.6%, with an increase of 0.76 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Market and Demand Outlook - The demand for consumer electronics is gradually recovering, with expected growth in global smartphone and PC sales of 2.8% and 2.0% in 2024, respectively [2]. - The company is focusing on increasing its self-supply ratio of consumer battery cells, which reached a gross margin of 14.91% in 2023, up 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Innovation and R&D - The company has made significant investments in R&D, achieving mass production of silicon anode batteries and developing fast-charging capabilities [2]. - The company is also working on new battery technologies, including super-fast charging batteries [2]. Shareholder Returns - The company is planning a new round of share repurchases, aiming to buy back shares worth 300 to 500 million yuan, which will be canceled to enhance shareholder value [2].

Group 1: Supply - Capital expenditure for copper companies has been declining since 2016, leading to a slowdown in copper supply growth, with expectations of tight supply in the coming years [9][15][17] - The average grade of existing copper mines is decreasing, which further suppresses production. For instance, the average grade of Chilean copper mines fell from 0.78 in 2014 to 0.66 in 2022, a decline of 15.4% [10][15][17] - Political disturbances and changing mining policies in major copper-producing countries like Chile, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo are impacting production and export [17] Group 2: Demand - In 2022, China accounted for 57.42% of global copper consumption, with the U.S. contributing 6.64%. China alone contributed more than half of global copper demand [22][25] - The demand composition in China shows that electricity accounts for 44.8%, home appliances for 15.2%, and machinery and electronics for 11.1% [13][25] - The demand for copper in the renewable energy sector, particularly from solar and wind power, is expected to grow significantly, with solar and wind installations projected to increase in 2024 [25][39][42] Group 3: Prices and Sector Performance - Historical data indicates that copper prices closely follow the PMI data from China and the U.S., suggesting that copper prices have room for upward movement due to supply-demand balance and a weakening dollar [43][59] - The valuation of the copper sector is currently low, which is expected to rise alongside copper prices, as historical trends show a clear upward trajectory during periods of supply-demand tightness [61]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in the stock price compared to the benchmark index over the next 6 to 12 months [11]. Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in profitability, with a historical high in operating performance. In Q4 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 4.097 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.46% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30.43%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 683 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.98% [7]. - The company is actively expanding its industrial automation layout through the development of PLC products, benefiting from new industrialization opportunities. It has established a digital industrial research institute to enhance its capabilities in industrial automation [8]. - The company is increasing its investment in R&D, with 1.454 billion yuan allocated in 2023, accounting for 11.26% of revenue. This investment aims to strengthen its position in industrial software and artificial intelligence [8]. Financial Summary - The company reported a total revenue of 12.916 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 1.78%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.554 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.82% [6]. - The forecast for net profit from 2024 to 2026 is 3.146 billion yuan, 4.103 billion yuan, and 5.168 billion yuan, respectively, with EPS projected at 1.31 yuan, 1.71 yuan, and 2.15 yuan [9]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 36.92%, an increase of 3.89 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 20.22%, up 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of 37.78 [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 9.655 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.32%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.823 billion yuan, up 30.04% year-on-year [4][5]. - The fourth quarter performance exceeded expectations, with a record quarterly revenue of 3.118 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.49% year-on-year. The net profit for Q4 reached 879 million yuan, a significant increase of 51.84% year-on-year [4][9]. - The company’s core products, particularly those for respiratory diseases, saw strong sales due to seasonal demand, contributing to the overall revenue growth [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2022A: Revenue of 8.996 billion yuan, net profit of 2.171 billion yuan - 2023A: Revenue of 9.655 billion yuan, net profit of 2.823 billion yuan - 2024E: Revenue expected to be 10.203 billion yuan, net profit of 3.114 billion yuan - 2025E: Revenue expected to be 11.084 billion yuan, net profit of 3.430 billion yuan - 2026E: Revenue expected to be 11.944 billion yuan, net profit of 3.730 billion yuan [1][5]. - **Growth Rates**: - Revenue growth rates for 2024-2026 are projected at 6%, 9%, and 8% respectively, while net profit growth rates are expected to be 10%, 10%, and 9% [5]. - **Profitability Metrics**: - The company achieved a gross margin of 81.5% in 2023, with a net margin of 29.3%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.14 percentage points [4][5]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS for 2023 was reported at 3.06 yuan, with projections of 3.38 yuan, 3.72 yuan, and 4.05 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [1][5]. Segment Performance - **Product Categories**: - The company’s revenue from the heat-clearing and detoxifying category reached 3.380 billion yuan, growing by 17.68%. The pediatric category generated 2.741 billion yuan, up 13.01%, while the digestive category saw a decline of 4.60% to 1.687 billion yuan [4][5]. - **Cost and Margin Analysis**: - The gross margins for the heat-clearing, digestive, and pediatric categories were 78.03%, 89.93%, and 87.30% respectively, with slight declines attributed to rising raw material costs [4][5]. Dividend Policy - The company announced a cash dividend of 1.197 billion yuan, representing 42.41% of the net profit for 2023, indicating an increase in the dividend payout ratio compared to previous years [4][5].

中科蓝讯(688332.SH)/电子 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 04 月 09 日 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | 评级 | 说明 | | | 买入 | 预期未来 6~12 个月内相对同期基准指数涨幅在 15% 以上 | | | 增持 | 预期未 ...

斯达半导：23 年营收较快增长，24年碳化硅业务有望放量 斯达半导(603290.SH)/电子 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年4月10日 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble：_T买itle入] （维持） [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e1及] 估值 市场价格：153.20元/股 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 2,705 3,663 4,857 6,129 7,419 分析师：王芳 增长率yoy% 59% 35% 33% 26% 21% 执业证书编号：S0740521120002 净利润（百万元） 818 911 1,077 1,471 1,759 Email：wangfang02@zts.com.cn 增长率yoy% 105% 11% 18% 37% 20% 每股收益（元） 4.78 5.33 6.30 8.60 10.29 分析师：杨旭 每股现金流量 3.91 2.24 3.83 6.52 7.93 执业证书编号：S0740521120001 净资产收益率 14% 14% 14% 16% 16% Email：yangxu01 ...

业绩符合预期，盈利逐季改善 太阳纸业（002078.SZ）/轻工 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年4月10日 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble：_T买itle入] （维持） [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e]及估值 市场价格：15.05元 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 39,767 39,544 44,003 46,314 48,630 分析师：张潇 增长率yoy% 24% -1% 11% 5% 5% 执业证书编号：S0740523030001 净利润（百万元） 2,809 3,086 3,612 3,932 4,231 Email：zhangxiao06@zts.com.cn 增长率yoy% -5% 10% 17% 9% 8% 每股收益（元） 1.01 1.10 1.29 1.41 1.51 分析师：邹文婕 每股现金流量 1.37 2.37 1.78 2.13 2.41 执业证书编号：S0740523070001 净资产收益率 12% 12% 13% 12% 12% Email：zouwj@zts.com.cn P/E 15 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [1][6][26] Core Insights - The company's performance in 2023 was significantly impacted by declining lithium prices, leading to a 21% year-over-year decrease in revenue to 32.97 billion yuan and a 76% drop in net profit to 4.95 billion yuan [3][9][11] - The lithium segment's revenue fell by 29.25% to 24.47 billion yuan, with a notable reduction in gross margin from 56% to 13% [4][11][12] - The company is expected to enter a growth phase in 2024 as several resource projects are set to ramp up production, potentially increasing self-sufficiency in lithium resources from 30% to over 60% by 2025 [6][17][26] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: - 2023 revenue: 32.97 billion yuan, down 21% year-over-year - 2023 net profit: 4.95 billion yuan, down 76% year-over-year - Q4 2023 revenue: 7.29 billion yuan, down 48.7% year-over-year [3][9][10] - **Lithium Segment**: - 2023 lithium salt production: 104,300 tons, up 7.25% year-over-year - 2023 average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate: 257,000 yuan/ton, down 46.98% year-over-year [4][11] - **Battery Segment**: - 2023 battery segment revenue: 7.71 billion yuan, up 18.99% year-over-year - 2023 gross profit: 1.38 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 17.96% [5][11][23] Resource and Production Outlook - The company controls a total lithium resource of 79.59 million tons LCE, with an equity resource of 48.14 million tons LCE, leading in domestic resource control [6][17][26] - Planned production capacity includes 300,000 tons LCE by 2025 and 600,000 tons LCE by 2030, with several projects expected to commence production in 2024 [6][17][26] Price and Market Trends - Lithium prices have significantly decreased, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices dropping from 500,000 yuan/ton to around 100,000 yuan/ton, indicating a potential market bottom [24][26] - The report suggests that the industry is experiencing supply adjustments as prices fall below marginal costs, with some companies reducing production [24][26]