[b_Suy 今日预览 证券研究报告 2024 年 3 月 14 日 研究分享 >> Email： 晨报内容回顾： 晨会聚焦 - 2 - 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 ①龙头白马：具备穿越周期的韧性。一方面，龙头公司通过精益生产实现化工品成本曲线的全球最 左端；另一方面，企业通过持续性的研发创新成功打破海外技术垄断，加速推动国产化替代进程。 经济底部企稳、制造业投资增长下，随后续需求修复，利好龙头企业。 ②涤纶长丝：复苏链中较强弹性品种。在我们此前外发的涤纶长丝行业深度报告《低库存迎复苏弹 性，长周期格局已优化》中，从库存周期角度与供需格局两个维度对行业进行分析。产能周期看， 2023 年是国内长丝投产的最后高峰，当下行业投产高峰已过；库存周期看，长丝已于 2023Q1 淡季 提前进入被动去库周期。供需格局持续优化的背景下，产品价格弹性有望继续向上。现阶段，受春 节前下游织造企业备货充足、采购意愿偏低以及春节假期累库双重影响，库存水平处于历史较高水 平。根据 Wind，截至 3 月 8 日，POY 库存为 29.8 天，周环比+1.7 天。金三银四旺季已至，后续 长丝库存有望得到一定程度上的消化。展望 2 ...

【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】电子王芳：AI 系列：光是通信的必由之路，OCS 已成功应 证券研究报告 2024 年 3 月 13 日 [b_Suy 今日预览 【电子】王芳：AI 系列：光是通信的必由之路，OCS 已成功应用 研究分享 >> Email： 晨报内容回顾： 今日重点 ►【电子】王芳：AI 系列：光是通信的必由之路，OCS 已成功应用 王芳｜中泰电子首席 S0740521120002 谷歌大模型持续迭代，亟需算力支撑：2023 年 12 月，谷歌推出自身首个多模态大模型 Gemini 1.0， 其中高性能版本 Gemini Ultra 可对标 GPT-4，2024 年 2 月 16 日，谷歌 Gemini 模型 Pro 版迭代出 1.5 版本，该模型在长语境理解方面取得突破，显著增加可处理信息量；2024 年 2 月 22 日，谷歌 推出新型开源模型系列"Gemma"。谷歌不断加速迭代大模型，大模型性能提升除了软件层面优 化，更需强大算力支撑 谷歌自研 TPU 性能不足，引入 OCS 光交换机提升计算集群性能：根据公开数据，谷歌训练 Gemini Ultra 所使用芯片为 TPU v4、TPU v5e，性 ...

相关报告 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 - 5 - 长虹美菱：进击的二线龙头 [Table_Title] 评级：买入（首次） 市场价格：8.86 执业证书编号：S0740522080001 | --- | --- | |---------------------|-------| | | | | 总股本 ( 百万股 ) | 1,030 | | | 875 | | 流通股本 ( 百万股 ) | | | 市价 ( 元 ) | 8.86 | | 市值 ( 百万元 ) | 9,125 | | 流通市值 ( 百万元 ) | 7,755 | -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-02 长虹美菱 沪深300 行业深度： | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------|---- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company's 2023 revenue decreased by 8.5% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 2.1%. The decline in revenue was primarily due to both interest and non-interest income pressures [4][8] - The company is expected to see a gradual improvement in asset quality and profitability in the coming years, supported by its strong backing from the group and its focus on optimizing customer segments and risk preferences [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 was 164,699 million, down from 179,895 million in 2022, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 8.5% [4] - Net profit for 2023 was 46,455 million, a slight increase of 2.1% compared to 45,516 million in 2022 [4] - The net interest income decreased by 9.3% year-on-year, influenced by a decline in interest margins and slower credit growth [8] - Non-interest income also fell by 6.1%, impacted by market volatility affecting fees and investment income [8] Asset and Liability Management - Total assets grew by 5% year-on-year, while total loans increased by 2.4%, indicating a slower growth rate for loans compared to total assets [17] - The structure of assets showed that loans accounted for 67.9% of interest-earning assets, with bond investments at 20.3% [17] - On the liability side, total liabilities increased by 4.7%, with total deposits growing by 3.2%, indicating a slower growth in deposits compared to liabilities [17] Profitability and Valuation - The company’s projected price-to-book (P/B) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.46, 0.42, and 0.38 respectively, suggesting a potential undervaluation [5] - The net asset return rate for 2023 was 12.11%, with expectations of a gradual decline to 9.99% by 2026 [4] Dividend Policy - The dividend payout ratio has significantly increased from approximately 12% to 30%, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [4]

门店扩张提速，业绩超预期 ——名创优品2023年四季度业绩点评 名创优品（9896.HK）/商贸零 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年3月14日 售 评级：增持 （维持） 公司盈利预测及 估值 市场价格：37.7港币 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 10,086 11,473 15,223 18,170 20,780 分析师：苏畅 执业证书编号：S0740523110001 增长率yoy% 11% 14% 32.7% 19.4% 14.4% 净利润（百万元） 637 1,769 2,450 2,921 3,346 Email：suchang@zts.com.cn 增长率yoy% 149.0% 177.8% 38.5% 19.2% 14.6% 每股收益（元） 0.50 1.40 1.94 2.31 2.65 每股现金流量 1.11 1.32 2.10 2.45 2.72 净资产收益率 9% 22% 26% 27% 27% P/E 67.8 24.4 17.6 14.8 12.9 P/B 6.1 4.9 4.3 3.7 3.3 备 注：每股指标按照最新股本数全 ...

1 中 泰证 券研 究所 专 业｜ 领先 ｜深 度｜ 诚信 ｜ 证 券 研 究 报 告 ｜ 减速器专题研究：人形机器人带来产业深度变局 ——人形机器人产业系列报告（四） 2024 . 3. 14 冯胜 中泰中游制造负责人&先进产业研究首席 执业证书编号：S0740519050004 杨帅 中泰先进产业研究组 研究助理 蔡星荷 中泰先进产业研究组 研究助理 核心观点 减速器行业概况：减速器是传动系统核心零部件，随着应用场景的不断扩展，减速器市场规模不断扩大。 1）减速器是由多个齿轮组成的常用传动零部件，其通过不同大小的齿轮的啮合传递动力，从而降低驱动设备 的转速并提供更高的扭矩输出和承载能力。其作用包括减小转速、增大扭矩、减少运动机构惯量、锁止机构等。 2）减速器按用途可分为通用减速器、专用减速器与精密减速器。通用减速器满足基本动力传动需求，专用减 速器为特定场景设计，如风力发电齿轮箱等。精密减速器具高传动精度、小回差、大扭转刚度的特点，常用于 机器人和高端机床等高精度要求领域。 3）随着减速器应用场景不断扩展至人形机器人、新能源等新兴产业，减速器市场规模不断扩大。 精密减速器分析与比较：按结构分为行星、RV、 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shaanxi Coal Industry is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 25.24 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 21.26 billion CNY in 2023, a decrease of 39.59% year-on-year, primarily due to falling coal prices and a high base from the previous year [3]. - The company reported a coal production of 164 million tons in 2023, an increase of 4.10% year-on-year, but the average coal prices decreased significantly, impacting overall performance [3]. - The company maintains a high dividend yield of 5.21%, indicating strong allocation value despite the profit decline [3]. - The earnings forecast for 2023-2025 has been adjusted, with expected revenues of 170.81 billion CNY, 190.38 billion CNY, and 196.81 billion CNY, and net profits of 21.26 billion CNY, 24.53 billion CNY, and 26.14 billion CNY respectively [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million CNY): 152,266 (2021A), 166,848 (2022A), 170,814 (2023E), 190,376 (2024E), 196,811 (2025E) [2]. - Net Profit (in million CNY): 21,140 (2021A), 35,123 (2022A), 21,260 (2023E), 24,528 (2024E), 26,136 (2025E) [2]. - Earnings Per Share (CNY): 2.18 (2023E), 2.53 (2024E), 2.70 (2025E) [2]. - Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E): 11.6 (2023E), 10.0 (2024E), 9.4 (2025E) [2]. - Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B): 2.9 (2023E), 2.4 (2024E), 1.7 (2025E) [2]. Market Performance - The company’s stock price as of March 13, 2024, is 25.24 CNY, with a market capitalization of 244.70 billion CNY [4].

神火股份：铝煤双翼，乘风而起 神火股份(000933.SZ)/有色金属 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2024年03月12日 [评Ta级ble：_T买itle入] （维持） [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e]及估值 市场价格：18.79元 指标 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 营业收入（百万元） 34,452 42,704 37,830 46,531 51,221 分析师：郭中伟 增长率yoy% 83% 24% -11% 23% 10% 执业证书编号：S0740521110004 归母净利润（百万元） 3,234 7,571 5,247 7,773 9,209 Email：guozw@zts.com.cn 增长率yoy% 803% 134% -31% 48% 18% 每股收益（元） 1.44 3.37 2.33 3.46 4.09 分析师：杜冲 每股现金流量 5.02 6.25 3.64 4.94 5.52 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 净资产收益率 22% 36% 20% 22% 20% Email：duchong@zts.com.cn P/E 13.1 5. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Dingdong Maicai (DDL.N) is "Buy" [5]. Core Views - Dingdong Maicai has entered a profit release phase in 2023, aligning with its strategy of prioritizing efficiency while maintaining scale. The company is expected to continue improving its cost structure and operational efficiency, leading to a turnaround in profitability [2]. - The report adjusts profit forecasts while maintaining a "Buy" rating, indicating confidence in the company's ability to achieve profitability through cost reduction and efficiency improvements [2]. - The company has demonstrated a significant improvement in its financial metrics, with a focus on core regions such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, which is expected to drive revenue growth in the future [2]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023A: 19,971 million RMB - 2024E: 20,617 million RMB - 2025E: 21,371 million RMB - 2026E: 22,153 million RMB - Growth rates: 2023A (-18%), 2024E (3%), 2025E (4%), 2026E (4%) [2]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2023A: -91 million RMB - 2024E: 2 million RMB - 2025E: 79 million RMB - 2026E: 118 million RMB - Growth rates: 2023A (108%), 2024E (235%), 2025E (50%), 2026E (17%) [2]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: -1.45 RMB - 2024E: 0.11 RMB - 2025E: 0.47 RMB - 2026E: 0.71 RMB [2]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023A: -24% - 2024E: 1% - 2025E: 17% - 2026E: 20% [2]. Operational Insights - The company has successfully transitioned to a profitable model, with a focus on optimizing store structures in Southern China and deepening its presence in key regions [2]. - Dingdong Maicai's strategy of "efficiency first, scale second" has been validated, as evidenced by its continuous profitability over five consecutive quarters [2]. - The company has improved its cash flow and balance sheet significantly, indicating a reduction in operational risks and a pathway to sustainable revenue growth [2].

公司深度报告 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 - 6 - ◼ 整体看，市场对板块驱动及分歧主要集中在转移趋势、供需平衡及大订 单交付上，下面我们就转移趋势及供给端进行分析，探讨 CDMO 行业 能否有望重归往日荣光。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|--------|----------|---------|--------|----------------------------|----------------------------------------|--------|-------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 国内 CRO | 、 CDMO | | 主要核心标的临床项目总数 | | | | | | | | | 国内 CRO | 、 CDMO | | 主要核心标的临床前项目总数 | | | | | | | | | 国内 CRO | 、 CDMO | | | 主要核心标的项目总数占全球研发管线比重 ...