epyTtropeR_elbaT|tsriF_elbaT 宏 观 研 究 Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Summary 华福证券 暗示 9 月降息，宽松交易或未结束： 7 月 FOMC 会议点评 事件： 7月31日，美联储公布7月议息会议结果，维持联邦基金利率5.25%-5.5%不 变，符合市场预期。 投资要点： 利率决议维持利率不变、符合市场预期，对去通胀的表述较6月更乐观， 且更加关注经济和就业压力，从而为9月降息打开空间：（1）利率：维持 联邦基金利率5.25%-5.5%不变，符合市场预期；（2）购债：继续按计划 缩表，符合市场预期；（3）经济：与7月表述相比，对近期走弱的经济数 据关注度更大，对通胀关注度边际走弱。同时与此前仅重视通胀风险相 比，7月表述改为"关注其双重使命都在面临的风险"，对经济和就业关 注度提高；（4）通胀：表述更为温和，近期持续走弱的通胀数据，给美 联储较大信心，通胀对货币政策的制约已明显减弱。 鲍威尔讲话总体偏鸽，释放最早或9月降息信号：（1）利率：正逐渐接近 可以降息的时机，但尚未达到那个点。若通胀如期下降、劳动力市场持 稳，最快9月就会降息；（2）通胀：无需将注意 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huaneng International, expecting a relative price increase of over 20% in the next six months [9]. Core Views - In the first half of 2024, Huaneng International reported a revenue of 118.806 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.73%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 18.16% to 7.454 billion yuan [1]. - The decline in revenue was attributed to a 0.22% decrease in electricity generation and a 3.21% drop in average electricity settlement prices, alongside a significant 26.26% decrease in Singapore operations [1]. - The company benefited from a reduction in coal prices, with the average coal price down 11.20%, and a decrease in financial expenses by 419 million yuan, contributing to the increase in net profit [1]. - The profit per kilowatt-hour for coal-fired generation showed a significant year-on-year increase of 92.8% in 2Q24, despite a decrease in electricity generation [1]. Financial Summary - For 2024-2026, the projected net profits are 12.577 billion yuan, 13.851 billion yuan, and 15.607 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.8, 10.7, and 9.5 [2][3]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 254.397 billion yuan in 2023 to 272.653 billion yuan in 2026, with a modest growth rate of around 2% annually [3][6]. - The net profit is projected to increase significantly in 2024, with a growth rate of 49% compared to 2023 [3][6]. Operational Performance - In 1H24, the company added 1.0545 million kilowatts of wind power and 1.9897 million kilowatts of solar power capacity, bringing total installed capacities to 16.518 million kilowatts for wind and 15.09 million kilowatts for solar [2]. - The profit per kilowatt-hour for wind and solar energy decreased by 11.0% and 28.7% respectively in 1H24, influenced by various factors including electricity prices and natural conditions [2].

华福证券 证券研究报告|公司首次覆盖 2024年07月31日 电子 公司评级 买入（首次评级） 当前价格：15.73元 高端医耗勇立潮头，晶圆载具奋楫争先 ——昌红科技首次覆盖 证券分析师： 杨钟 执业证书编号：S0210522110003 联系人：詹小瑁 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 投资要件 Ø 公司系国内"工业之母"之精密模具制造领域领航者。模具加工是工业生产中极其重要且不可或缺的特殊基础工艺装备，其质量和精度极大影响 着制件的最终质量，在电子、军工、医疗用品等重要行业中有超过60%～80%的零部件均使用模具加工制作。公司深耕模具制造领域近二十年， 目前已成为中国重点骨干模具企业，其精密模具设计与制造水平处于行业领先地位。公司凭借其深厚的精密模具设计制造能力、精湛的注塑工艺 和高效稳定且高质量输出的一体化/自动化/定制化供应能力，建立起快速完备且能显著减本增效的客户服务机制，并率先打入众多国际国内巨头 客户产业链并获高度认可。 Ø 公司以精密模具业务起家，跨界成为医疗高分子耗材领域冠军企业。随着我国医药行业的快速发展，公司医疗高分子耗材业务下游的体外诊断、 生命科学实验、基因测序等行业快速扩容 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company is expected to leverage its core traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) product, Compound Thrombus-Resolving Capsule, through centralized procurement to achieve volume growth by price reduction, thereby enhancing market share and solidifying its market leadership [2][21]. - The company has a robust pipeline of innovative drugs, with significant growth potential anticipated from the upcoming launches of new products, including the flu drug, Anladiwei, and the GLP-1/GIP dual-target innovative drug, RAY1225, which is currently in Phase II clinical trials [2][44]. - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 290 million, 430 million, and 510 million yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, corresponding to P/E ratios of 33, 22, and 18.5 times, respectively [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company, established in 1979 and listed in 2009, focuses on the production and sales of TCM, with key products including Compound Thrombus-Resolving Capsule and Brain Thrombus-Resolving Capsule, holding a leading position in the Guangdong market [7][21]. 2. Performance and Financials - In 2023, the company reported revenue of 2.61 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 263 million yuan, down 18.3% year-on-year [13]. - The company’s gross margin has remained stable around 60%, while the net margin has shown a declining trend [14][15]. 3. Product Pipeline and Innovation - The company has a diverse product pipeline, with 1 innovative drug already launched and several others in various stages of clinical trials, including RAY1225 and ZSP1601, which target significant health issues such as diabetes and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) [2][44]. - The innovative drug RAY1225 has shown promising results in weight loss during Phase I trials, with a weight reduction of 7.9% over six weeks [2][44]. 4. Market Position and Strategy - The company’s TCM products account for over 50% of its revenue, with a gross margin contribution exceeding 60% [17][29]. - The centralized procurement of the core product, Compound Thrombus-Resolving Capsule, is expected to stabilize its market position despite short-term revenue pressures [21][26]. 5. Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve revenue targets of 29.16 billion, 32.4 billion, and 36 billion yuan for 2024 to 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.7%, 11.1%, and 11.1% respectively [11].

7 月份，制造业 PMI 为 49.4%，较 6 月份回落 0.1 个百分点，景气出现 收缩。综合 PMI 为 50.2%，较上月回落 0.3 个百分点。 价格指数出现明显回落。7 月份主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格 指数分别为 49.9%和 46.3%，较上月分别下降 1.8 和 1.6 个百分点。本月原 材料购进价格回落主要受大宗商品价格回落影响。两个价格指标双双回调 反映制造业总体价格水平下降。 制造业生产经营活动预期下降。 建筑业和服务业业生产活动预期出现了不同程度的下调。 2024 年 07 月 31 日 | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | 1 制造业 PMI 小幅回落……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained rating [1][11]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.76 billion yuan in H1 2024, representing a 15.1% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 630 million yuan, up 15.5% [1]. - The core business segment, anesthetics, significantly contributed to the overall high growth, achieving a revenue of 1.52 billion yuan in H1 2024, which is a 20.0% increase and accounts for 55.1% of total revenue [1]. - The company has set clear performance targets through its equity incentive plan, aiming for net profit growth rates of no less than 15%, 33%, and 56% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 5.98 billion yuan, 7.20 billion yuan, and 8.69 billion yuan, with growth rates of 19%, 20%, and 21% respectively [3]. - The expected net profit for the same period is 1.22 billion yuan, 1.47 billion yuan, and 1.77 billion yuan, with growth rates of 18%, 20%, and 21% [3]. - The company maintained a gross margin of 72.5% and a net margin of 22.7% in H1 2024, indicating strong profitability [1]. Research and Development - The company invested 320 million yuan in R&D in H1 2024, a 13.0% increase year-on-year, with over 70 projects in development, including more than 20 innovative drug projects [2]. - Key innovative drug projects include NH60001, which is in Phase III clinical trials, and NHL35700, which is in Phase II [2]. Market Position - The company is currently viewed as relatively undervalued, considering its growth potential and diverse product pipeline [3].

Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Summar y 华福证券 宏 观 研 究 7 月中央政治局会议政策信号学习解读 宏观政策持续用力更加给力 事件： 中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年 经济工作。审议《整治形式主义为基层减负若干规定》。 投资要点： 宏 观 事 件 点 评 以改革为动力促进稳增长、调结构、防风险。会议强调，下半年改革发展 稳定任务很重，要围绕推进中国式现代化进一步全面深化改革；以改革为 动力促进稳增长、调结构、防风险，充分发挥经济体制改革的牵引作用， 这正是对党的二十届三中全会精神的具体落实和深化。 宏观政策要持续用力、更加给力。今年上半年我国运行总体平稳，但短期 有所波动。会议强调，要坚定不移完成全年经济社会发展目标任务，对于 下一阶段经济工作的整体基调，会议指出，宏观政策要持续用力、更加给 力，下半年宏观政策支持力度预计会进一步加大，后续增量政策可期。 以提振消费为重点扩大国内需求。积极扩大国内需求是推动我国经济良性 循环发展的重要着力点，当前扩内需的重点在于提振消费。会议指出，要 以提振消费为重点扩大国内需求，经济政策的着力点要更多转向惠民生、 促消 ...

华福证券 20240730 日报：预计更多城农商行跟进存款降息 投资要点： 板块表现： 7 月 30 日，沪深 300、银行指数均收跌。截至收盘，沪深 300 指 数下跌 0.63%，银行指数下跌 0.40%。分板块来看，国有行、股份行、 城商行、农商行涨跌幅分别为+0.11%、-0.45%、-0.91%、-0.66%。 个股表现： 截至收盘，涨幅前三的银行分别为无锡银行+0.98%、中国银行 +0.63%、西安银行+0.62%。跌幅前三的银行分别是民生银行-1.94%、 渝农商行-1.71%、浦发银行-1.64%。 行业新闻： （1）政治局会议重磅定调房地产，存量房收购有望全面落地。会 议强调，要持续防范化解重点领域风险。要落实好促进房地产市场平 稳健康发展的新政策，坚持消化存量和优化增量相结合，积极支持收 购存量商品房用作保障性住房，进一步做好保交房工作，加快构建房 地产发展新模式。要完善和落实地方一揽子化债方案，创造条件加快 化解地方融资平台债务风险。（新华网） （2）江苏银行、厦门银行跟进存款降息，预计更多城农商行将跟 进。江苏银行不同期限定期存款整存整取挂牌利率调整幅度与大行相 同，1 年期及以下下 ...

华福证券 百润股份（002568.SZ） 预调酒业务稳健，威士忌新曲线可期 事件：百润股份发布 2024 年半年度报告，公司 24 年上半年实现营收 16.28 亿 元，同比-1.38%，实现归母净利润 4.02 亿元，同比-8.36%，实现扣非净利润为 3.92 亿元，同比-9.2%。根据中报，公司 24Q2 单季度实现营收 8.26 亿元，同 比-7.25%，实现归母净利润 2.33 亿元，同比-7.28%，扣非净利润 2.3 亿元，同 比-5.7%。 清爽新品推出，预调酒业务经营稳健 公司 24 年上半年预调酒业务实现营收 14.31 亿元，同比-1.42%，单 Q2 实现预调酒业务营收 7.19 亿元，环比+1.01%，同比-7.56%，香精香料 和其他业务合计创造营收 1.07 亿元，环比+19.26%，同比-5.13%，报告期 内，公司强爽系列零糖新品"春雪蜜桃"上市深受消费者喜爱；微醺系列 从"一个人的小酒"成功拓展到节庆餐饮、晚间小酌等场景，新口味"青 提茉莉"上市表现出色，清爽系列品牌焕新升级，500ml 大罐全新上市， 通过深度梯媒投放等全方位多角度的强势品牌推广，我们认为新品的优异 表现 ...

华福证券 农林牧渔 肥标价差有所扩大，猪价继续上行 投资要点： 生猪养殖：肥标价差有所扩大，猪价继续上行。1）猪价继续上涨，南 方走势强于北方。上周肥猪溢价提升，7 月 25 日 200/175kg 生猪与标猪价 差分别为 0.27/0.24 元/斤，周环比+0.07/+0.12 元/斤。肥标价差扩大带动散 户惜售和二育入场情绪增强，猪价继续上涨。由于春节前后开始南方部分 区域存在外销仔猪到北方的情况，造成南方 7 月份出栏减少，受此影响， 南方猪价走势强于北方。7 月 26 日猪价 19.29 元/斤，周环比+0.2 元/公斤。 2）屠企宰量低位运行、冻品库存下降缓慢。多地气温偏高，加之猪价持续 走高，终端白条走货不佳，屠企增量宰杀意愿不强，多地屠企宰量低位运 行。7 月 26 日涌益样本屠企屠宰量 13.06 万头，周环比-0.53%。终端消费 低迷，屠企反馈鲜销走货为主，冻品库存下降缓慢。7 月 25 全国冻品库容 率 16.74%，周环比-0.14pct。3）二育逢高出栏增加，生猪均重小幅增长。 北方二次育肥逢高出栏略有增加，同时集团企业为赶出栏进度有增加出栏， 支撑生猪交易均重上升。南方因肥猪溢价提 ...