下 下 = | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------| | 2024 年 08 月 02 日 \n新型城镇化的三大脉络 | 宏观类●证券研究报告 \n定期报告 | | 华金宏观·双循环周报（第 69 期） | 分析师 秦泰 SAC 执业证书编号： S0910523080002 | | 投资要点 | qintai@huajinsc.cn | | 本周焦点：新型城镇化的三大脉络。以人为本的新型城镇化战略重心和目标导向是 | 报告联系人 周欣然 zhouxinran@huajinsc.cn | | 什么？如何统筹新型工业化和区域协调发展？国务院 7 月 31 日公布最新的《深入 | | | 实施以人为本的新型城镇化战略五年行动计划》给出了系统 ...

4-6 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------| | 投资要点 | 2024 年 08 月 02 日 \n国科天成(301571.SZ) | | 公司研究·证券研究报告 \n新股覆盖研究 | | | ◆ 下周三 (8月7日) 有一家创业板上市公司"国科天成"询价。 | 交易数据 | | | | ◆ 国科天成（301571); 公司是一家拥有武器装备科研生产许可证书等军工资质，主 | 总市值(百万元) | | | | 要从事红外热成像等光电领域的研发、生产、销售与服务业务的高新技术企业。公 | 流通市值(百万元) | | | | 司 2 ...

Group 1: US Labor Market Insights - In July 2024, the US added 114,000 non-farm jobs, significantly lower than June's 179,000 and the second quarter average of 168,000[5] - The unemployment rate rose for the fourth consecutive month, increasing by 0.2 percentage points to 4.3%, which is 0.5 percentage points higher than in March[5] - The labor force participation rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.7%, indicating a slight improvement in labor supply[5] - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-on-month, but the year-on-year growth fell to 3.6%, the lowest since June 2021[5] Group 2: Economic Implications - The decline in employment is concentrated in sectors such as information, finance, real estate, government, and education, with significant job losses of 35,000, 26,000, and 25,000 respectively in July[5] - The market anticipates a potential interest rate cut of more than 50 basis points by the Federal Reserve due to the weakening labor market[5] - The current inflation and unemployment relationship in the US is described as a "non-linear saddle shape," suggesting rising inflation risks if job losses continue while demand remains high[6] Group 3: UK Monetary Policy Developments - The Bank of England implemented its first rate cut in a year on August 1, 2024, reducing the policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.0%[5] - The Bank revised its 2024 GDP growth forecast upward to 1.25% and inflation forecast to 2.75%, reflecting uncertainty in future inflation paths[5] - Recent CPI data showed a decline to the target level of 2%, driven by a stronger pound and easing labor market conditions[5]

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低空经济有望迎加速，产业链蓄势待发空间广 行业事件：中共中央政治局 7 月 30 日下午就推进现代边海空防建设进行第十六次 集体学习。习近平指出，要坚持边运行、边改革、边完善，优化边海防领导管理体 制，完善跨军地协调机制，加强相关法制建设，确保边海防各项工作规范有序、顺 畅高效。要做好国家空中交通管理工作，促进低空经济健康发展。要优化人民防空 建设模式，构建现代人民防空体系。 政策密集落地，低空经济有望迎加速：低空经济是指以民用有人驾驶和无人驾 驶航空器为主，以载人、载货及其他作业等多场景低空飞行活动为牵引，辐射带 动相关领域融合发展的综合性经济形态。其相关产品主要包括无人机、eVTOL 设模式，构建现代人民防空体系。 （电动垂直起降飞行器）、直升飞机、传统固定翼飞机等，涉及居民消费和工业 应用两大场景。2021 年 2 月，低空经济写入《国家综合立体交通网规划纲要》。 去年底举行的中央经济工作会议提出"打造生物制造、商业航天、低空经济等若 干战略性新兴产业"。今年全国两会，"积极打造生物制造、商业航天、低空经 济等新增长引擎"被写入政府工作报告。我们认为，低空经济的发展离不开政策 支持、技术储备、商业应用落 ...

丝 发 隼 团 旗 下 = | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------| | 2024 年 08 月 01 日 \n强降弱升，美日央行决策背离合理么？ | 宏观类●证券研究报告 \n主题报告 | | 美联储、日央行 7 月决议分析 | 分析师 秦泰 SAC 执业证书编号： S0910523080002 | | 投资要点 | qintai@huajinsc.cn | | 美联储考虑 9 月降息，日央行二次加息并启动缩表。美联储 FOMC 会议连续第八 | 报告联系人 周欣然 zhouxinran@huajinsc.cn | | 次维持利率不变，但决议声明较 6 月有三点变化： 1 ）对近期劳动力市场紧张程度 | | | 的表态进一步降温。新增就业"温和（ moderated ）"替换了上次会议的"保持强 | 相关报告 | | 劲（ rema ...

业绩稳健增长，现金回款承压 事件： 公司发布 2024 年上半年业绩，公司上半年实现营收 17.19 亿元，同比增长 12.57%， 归母净利润2.42亿元，同比增长19.55%，扣非归母净利润2.28亿元，同比增长13.9%； 其中单 Q2 实现营收 7.85 亿元，同比增长 16.62%，归母净利润 0.56 亿元，同比增长 29.6%，扣非归母净利润 0.74 亿元，同比增长 74.42%，经营活动产生的现金流净额 -1.92 亿元，同比转负（去年同期为 0.3 亿元），销售回款 7.7 亿元，同比下降 6%， 合同负债 10.71 亿元，同比减少 0.15 亿元/环比 Q1 末减少 0.8 亿元，考虑营收+环比 合同负债后同比下降 7.33%。 投资要点 24Q2 收入增长超预期，臻酿八号贡献主要增量。24H1 公司实现营收 17.19 亿元， 同比+12.57%，其中，Q2 实现营收 7.85 亿元，同比+16.62%，表现超市场预期， 我们认为主要系公司核心大单品臻酿八号动销较好以及散酒贡献增量所致。量价拆 分来看，24Q2 销量、均价分别同比+0.69%、+10.42%，均价提升较好主要系高档 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the recent rebound in the A-share market is driven by positive policy signals aimed at economic recovery, maintaining liquidity, and restrictions on quantitative trading [6][8]. - The Third Plenary Session and Politburo meeting have set a positive tone for policies focusing on modernization and stimulating consumption, which may improve short-term economic recovery expectations [6][8]. - Short-term liquidity is expected to remain loose due to the easing of monetary policy and the anticipation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with the current excess reserve rate at a low of 1.5% [6][8]. Group 2 - The report suggests that the A-share market is likely to continue its short-term rebound, as historical data shows that during market corrections, key economic indicators such as manufacturing PMI and industrial profits tend to decline, but recent data indicates some recovery [8][10]. - The report highlights that the A-share market is currently in a bottoming phase, with expectations of a rebound in profits and a potential stabilization in credit growth, indicating a likely oscillating market trend in the second half of the year [10][12]. - The DDM framework suggests that the short-term rebound may persist, supported by improving economic and profit recovery expectations, with a notable increase in industrial profits reported in June [12][15]. Group 3 - The report emphasizes that technology growth sectors are likely to be the main focus for investment during the rebound, as historically, high-growth industries outperform during market recoveries [15][17]. - It also notes that dividend-paying sectors remain attractive for long-term investment, particularly in low-growth economic environments, with several high-dividend industries showing favorable valuation metrics [15][17]. - Additionally, certain cyclical and consumer sectors are highlighted as having potential investment opportunities, particularly those related to consumption stimulus policies [15][17].

政策叠加数智赋能，网络主播迈入高质量发展 投资要点 事件：7 月 31 日，人力资源和社会保障部会同国家市场监督管理总局、国家统 计局正式增设网络主播为国家新职业。在政策支持下，短视频直播平台与实体经 济不断融合，普通人有望获得更多规模化的就业机会和职业选择。 政策端明确行业定位，网络主播进入高质量发展阶段。7 月 31 日，人力资源和 社会保障部会同国家市场监督管理总局、国家统计局正式增设网络主播为国家新 职业，这标志着网络主播的职业身份在"国家确定职业分类"上首次得以确立。 据人社部此前印发的《关于加强新职业培训工作的通知》，新职业从业者可享受 国家职业技能培训补贴和职业技能鉴定补贴等有关政策待遇，以及高技能人才与 专业技术人才职业发展相关政策。新旧政策多轮驱动，为直播行业正名，增强从 业人员归属感，亦标志着直播行业进入高质量发展阶段，或有效刺激新型就业， 为千行百业发展注入新活力，长效赋能新质生产力发展。 "直播+"或推动直播产业快速发展。网络直播的实时性、互动性和可访问性为 各行业发展带来机遇，重塑了传统商业模式和消费者行为，正改变多个行业业态。 短短几年时间，网络直播已经在直播电商、乡村振兴、教育培 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the semiconductor industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [1]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing growth driven by AI, with high-value products seeing increased demand. The three major memory manufacturers have reported continuous revenue growth in Q2 2024, with SK Hynix achieving a record high in quarterly revenue [1][8]. - The report highlights that regulatory tightening is leading to a rationalization of channel prices, stabilizing the market prices for memory products [41][43]. - Taiwanese memory manufacturers are showing improved performance, indicating an upward cycle in the industry [1][8]. Summary by Sections Section 1: AI Driving High-Value Product Growth - All three major memory manufacturers reported revenue growth in Q2 2024, with SK Hynix achieving a historical high in quarterly revenue. Samsung's storage business revenue reached 21.74 trillion KRW, a year-on-year increase of 142.36% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24.30% [1][9]. - The demand for high-value products such as DDR5 and HBM is strong, driven by AI server requirements, with expectations for continued robust demand in the second half of the year [19][23]. Section 2: Regulatory Tightening and Price Stabilization - The DXI index, reflecting overall DRAM prices, has been steadily rising since June 2024, indicating a gradual recovery in the DRAM market. The current market conditions are characterized by stable prices and reduced volatility [41][43]. - The report notes that the channel market is moving away from price wars due to increased regulatory scrutiny, which is helping to stabilize prices [48]. Section 3: Improvement in Taiwanese Memory Manufacturers - Taiwanese memory manufacturers have shown continuous improvement in performance, with optimistic outlooks for the second half of 2024. Nanya Technology expects a significant increase in HBM demand driven by AI servers [1][8]. - The report suggests that the industry is entering an upward cycle, with expectations for sustained growth over the next two years [1][8].