Group 1: Current Debt Situation - As of FY2024, the total U.S. government debt exceeds $38 trillion, primarily driven by federal government debt[3] - Federal government debt reached $35.5 trillion, while state and local debts are $1 trillion and $2 trillion respectively[3] - From FY2019 to FY2024, federal government debt increased by 56.4%, while state and local debts changed by -11.1% and 2% respectively[3] Group 2: Debt-to-GDP Ratios - By FY2024, the U.S. government debt-to-GDP ratio surpassed 130%, with federal government debt-to-GDP exceeding 120%[4] - The federal debt reached $35.5 trillion, exceeding the FY2024 GDP of $28.8 trillion, resulting in a debt-to-GDP ratio of 123%[4] - The combined government debt-to-GDP ratio is approximately 134%[4] Group 3: Debt Growth Rate - The current growth rate of U.S. government debt is about $2.3 trillion per fiscal year, with projections indicating total debt will exceed $40 trillion in FY2025[5] - Federal debt is expected to surpass $37 trillion by FY2025, following annual increases of $2.5 trillion, $2.2 trillion, and $2.3 trillion in the previous three fiscal years[5] Group 4: Interest Payments and Fiscal Pressure - In FY2024, interest payments on federal debt reached $1.13 trillion, doubling from $0.56 trillion in FY2021[10] - Net interest payments became the third-largest expenditure for the federal government, accounting for approximately 13.1% of total spending in FY2024[11] - The average interest rate on outstanding debt rose to 3.324% by FY2024, significantly increasing the cost of servicing the debt[10] Group 5: Public vs. Internal Debt Holdings - Publicly held debt surged by 116% from FY2015 to FY2024, reaching $28.3 trillion, while internal government-held debt decreased[9] - In FY2024, public debt accounted for 92% of total federal debt, reflecting a significant shift in debt ownership[9] Group 6: External Debt Holdings - Foreign investors held $8.5 trillion of U.S. Treasury securities by the end of FY2024, a decrease from 31.5% of federal debt in 2010 to 23.5%[9] - Major foreign holders include Japan, China, and the UK, with respective holdings of $1.0598 trillion, $0.759 trillion, and $0.7227 trillion[9]

Key Insights - BYD's March new energy vehicle sales increased by 25% year-on-year, while China's three major telecom operators have successfully tackled cross-network capability interoperability issues [3][6] - The chemical battery sector is facing short-term performance pressure, but the long-term growth of the fluorochemical industry is promising [17][22] - China National Heavy Duty Truck's Q4 2024 performance exceeded market expectations, with a gross margin reaching a new high since Q2 2020 [24][25] - Puyuan Precision Electric's product structure optimization is suppressing short-term profits due to rising expenses [27][28] Industry Summaries New Materials - New materials are a crucial direction for the chemical industry, experiencing rapid growth in downstream demand supported by policy and technological breakthroughs [3] - Key areas of focus include semiconductor materials, display materials, and 5G materials [4] - The chemical storage industry is expected to see significant improvements in utilization rates and operational hours in 2024 [11] Battery Chemicals - The battery chemical sector is facing intense competition, with projected revenue of 7.84 billion yuan in 2024, a 4.85% increase year-on-year, but net profit is expected to decline by 6.83% [18][19] - The average price of domestic electrolytes is projected to drop by 41.43% in 2024 [19] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the exit of 3M from PFAS production, enhancing its market position in fluorochemical products [21] Commercial Vehicles - China National Heavy Duty Truck's Q4 2024 revenue reached 11.34 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3% and a net profit of 546 million yuan, up 28.4% year-on-year [24][25] - The company is expected to benefit from the replacement of old trucks, entering a favorable market cycle in 2025 [25][26] General Industry Trends - The chemical industry is anticipated to enter a replenishment cycle in 2025, driven by low inventory levels and improving profitability [51] - The phosphorous mining sector is expected to see a revaluation due to tight supply and demand dynamics, with a focus on Ba Tian Co.'s capacity expansion [47][49]

研究所： 证券分析师： 靳毅 S0350517100001 jiny01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘畅 S0350524090005 liuc06@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 大行注资落地，如何影响债市 债券研究周报 最近一年走势 大行注资落地，如何影响债市 注资的动因是什么？ 截至 2024 年末，国有大行的资本充足率均 满足监管要求，本轮注资更多是为了巩固银行的稳健经营能力，提 升其支持实体经济的能力。以 2024 年末的核心一级资本充足率数据 测算，本轮注资后，若保持核心一级资本充足率不变，则可对应增 加加权风险资产 4.6 万亿元，假设这部分资金全部用于信贷投放， 对应可支撑 4.6-6.1 万亿元的新增贷款，为后续潜在的经济刺激政策 提供了"弹药"。 对债市有何影响？ 注资特别国债带来的供给冲击相对有限，同 时将一定程度上缓解大行资产端配置压力，大行对利率债的需求或 有增长，但具体规模仍需关注信贷投放表现，若经济走势偏弱、信 贷表现一般，则大行增配债券的确定性更高，利率债的下行空间有 望打开。 2025 年 04 月 07 日 债券研究周报 机构资金跟踪 本周（ ...

2025 年 04 月 07 日 北交所行业研究 研究所： 证券分析师： 罗琨 S0350522110003 luok@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 禹露 S0350124070012 yul06@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 北交所出台自律管理规则，本周天工股份完成注 册、下周两家企业上会 ——北交所行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/04/03 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 北证 | 50 | -2.64% | 24.76% | 49.97% | | 沪深 | 300 | -0.73% | 1.08% | 7.84% | 相关报告 《北交所行业周报：近期北证 50 指数有所回调， 本周开发科技上市（推荐）*中小盘*罗琨》—— 2025-03-31 《商业航天行业报告：商业航天方兴未艾，低轨卫 星星座建设加速（推荐）*中小盘*罗琨》—— 2025-03-26 《北交所行业周报：本周北证 50 指数有所回调， 下周交大铁发上会（推荐）*中小盘*罗琨》—— 20 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is expected to enter a replenishment cycle in 2025 due to several factors, including decreasing inventory levels, bottoming out of profits, and institutional holdings reaching a low point [8][30] - The supply-demand tension in phosphate rock is likely to continue, with a potential revaluation of its value, particularly focusing on the capacity expansion of Batian Co., Ltd [4][6] - The impact of the new round of tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Chinese chemical enterprises is expected to be limited, as the U.S. still needs to import a significant amount of chemical products from China [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The basic chemical sector showed a performance of 0.0% over the last month, 8.4% over the last three months, and 1.2% over the last year, compared to the CSI 300 index which had performances of -0.7%, 2.3%, and 8.2% respectively [2] Investment Suggestions - Focus on companies with low-cost expansion opportunities, such as Wanhu Chemical, and those in the tire and fertilizer sectors [8] - Highlight the potential for increased demand in phosphate fertilizers and lithium iron phosphate batteries, with ongoing projects in fine phosphate chemicals [4][6] - Emphasize high dividend yield opportunities in state-owned enterprises within the chemical sector, including China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [10] Key Company Tracking - Batian Co., Ltd. plans to expand its phosphate rock production capacity from 900,000 tons/year to 2 million tons/year, with additional projects underway [6] - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from rising prices in sulfuric acid, acrylic acid, and synthetic ammonia, with a focus on companies like Batian Co., Ltd. and others in the phosphate sector [7][9] Price Trends - As of April 3, 2025, the price of phosphate rock was 1,038 CNY/ton, with slight fluctuations in related fertilizer prices [19] - The Brent and WTI crude oil prices were reported at 66.06 and 62.32 USD/barrel, respectively, indicating a week-on-week decrease of approximately 9.98% and 9.73% [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates steady revenue growth in the main business of the company, with a focus on flexible sensors to create a second growth curve [4][5][6] - The company achieved a revenue of 2.54 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.23%, and a net profit of 139 million yuan, up 98.42% year-on-year [4][5] - The company is transitioning from a single coating material provider to an integrated solution provider, enhancing revenue across various business segments [5][6] Group 2 - The report highlights that Lululemon's North American market growth is weak, with a revenue of 3.6 billion USD in FY2024Q4, a year-on-year increase of 13% [9][10] - The company expects a low to mid-single-digit revenue growth in North America for FY2025, with challenges from economic concerns affecting consumer traffic [11][12] - In contrast, the Chinese market showed strong growth, with a revenue increase of 48% year-on-year, indicating a robust performance in that region [11][12] Group 3 - The report on Tongyi Zhong indicates that the company achieved a revenue of 649 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, but net profit decreased by 15.2% [15][16] - The company reported a significant increase in production and sales volumes, with historical highs in major product categories [17][18] - The company is expanding into the aramid fiber sector, aiming to create dual growth drivers [15][21] Group 4 - Xiamen International Trade's report emphasizes its focus on supply chain management, with a strategy to navigate through commodity cycles [28][29] - The company has divested from real estate and financial services to concentrate on its core supply chain business, which includes metals, energy, and agriculture [29][30] - The report projects revenue for 2024 to 2026 at 389.05 billion yuan, 404.61 billion yuan, and 418.84 billion yuan, respectively, with a focus on maintaining a high dividend yield [32] Group 5 - The report on Bawang Tea indicates that it leads the high-end tea beverage market with 6,440 stores, achieving a GMV of 10.8 billion yuan in 2023 [33][34] - The company is benefiting from a growing market for high-end tea beverages, with a projected market size increase from 4.748 trillion yuan in 2019 to 8.189 trillion yuan in 2024 [34][35] - Bawang Tea's strategy focuses on a limited number of new products while optimizing supply chain efficiency, resulting in a gross margin of 51.5% [35] Group 6 - Aikodi's report shows a revenue of 6.746 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.24%, with a net profit of 940 million yuan [36][37] - The company is expanding its global footprint with new production bases in Malaysia and Mexico, enhancing its supply chain stability [39][40] - The report anticipates continued revenue growth driven by new product lines and market expansion, projecting revenues of 7.9 billion yuan in 2025 [40] Group 7 - Longxing Technology's report indicates a revenue of 4.355 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit increase of 28.7% [41][42] - The company is expanding its production capacity with new projects and acquisitions, aiming to increase its market share in the carbon black industry [46] - The report highlights a significant improvement in gross margin, reaching 13.01% in Q4 2024, driven by operational efficiencies [45][46]

证券研究报告 2025年04月06日 有色金属 铝行业周报：关税冲击，海外铝价持续下跌，国内去库延续 评级：推荐(维持) 陈晨（证券分析师） 王璇（证券分析师） S0350522110007 S0350523080001 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn wangx15@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 -26% -16% -6% 3% 13% 22% 2024/04 2024/07 2024/10 2025/01 2025/04 有色金属 沪深300 《铝行业周报：铝去库表现好，关税压力下铝价震荡（推荐）*有色金属*王璇， 陈晨》——2025-03-31 《铝行业周报：去库表现良好，铝价短期震荡不改旺季逻辑（推荐）*有色金 属*王璇，陈晨》——2025-03-23 《铝行业周报：库存持续去化，关注旺季需求提升（推荐）*有色金属*王璇， 陈晨》——2025-03-16 沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 3.2% | 10.4% | -2.3% | | 沪深300 | -0.7% | 2.3% ...

证券研究报告 2025年04月06日 煤炭开采 新集能源(601918.SH)深度报告之二：安徽火电预计未来三 年依然偏紧，新集能源煤电投产将增厚业绩 评级：买入(维持) 陈晨(证券分析师) 张益(联系人) S0350522110007 S0350124100016 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn zhangy33@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 -31% -20% -10% 1% 11% 21% 2024/04/03 2024/06/03 2024/08/03 2024/10/03 2024/12/03 2025/02/03 2025/04/03 新集能源 沪深300 相对沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 新集能源 | 7.0% | -1.2% | -21.8% | | 沪深300 | -0.7% | 2.3% | 8.2% | | 市场数据 | 2025/04/03 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | 6.86 | | 52周价格区间（元） | 6.21-10.71 | | 总市值（百万） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][25]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2,938 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 2.5% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 164.7 billion yuan, an increase of 2.0% year-on-year [5][12]. - The company emphasizes high dividends, with a total cash dividend distribution of 86.02 billion yuan, accounting for 52.2% of the net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024, showcasing its commitment to shareholder returns [9][12]. - The company plans to maintain high capital expenditures, with a budget of 262.2 billion yuan for 2025, focusing on oil and gas exploration and development [10][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a net profit of 164.7 billion yuan, with a return on equity (ROE) of 11.1%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [5][12]. - The average Brent crude oil price was 80.76 USD per barrel, a decrease of 2.3% year-on-year, while the company’s oil and gas sales volume increased, demonstrating resilience in its operational performance [6][12]. Segment Performance - The oil and gas and new energy segment generated revenue of 906.8 billion yuan, up 1.3% year-on-year, with operating profit of 159.7 billion yuan, an increase of 7.1% [6][15]. - The refining and chemical segment saw revenue decline to 1,192.6 billion yuan, down 2.3% year-on-year, with operating profit dropping 42% to 21.4 billion yuan due to intensified competition [7][15]. - The sales segment reported revenue of 2,454.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.9% year-on-year, with operating profit down 31.2% to 16.5 billion yuan [7][15]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of 3,051 billion yuan for 2025, with net profits of 165.6 billion yuan, reflecting a stable growth trajectory [12][14]. - The capital expenditure for 2025 is projected to increase by 1.6% compared to 2024, focusing on key exploration and development projects [10][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][9] Core Views - The report highlights that the company is experiencing positive financial performance driven by a new vehicle cycle, accelerated intelligent driving technology, and overseas expansion [1][8] - In March 2025, the company delivered 33,205 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 268%, and a total of 94,008 vehicles in Q1 2025, up 331% year-on-year [1][2] Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 16.11 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 23.4% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 59.4% [5] - Vehicle revenue for Q4 2024 was 14.67 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 20.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 66.8% [5] - The company reported a gross margin of 14.4% for Q4 2024, with an automotive gross margin of 10.0% [5][9] Sales and Delivery Outlook - The company expects to deliver between 91,000 to 93,000 vehicles in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 317.0% to 326.2% [6] - Projected total revenue for Q1 2025 is estimated to be between 15 billion to 15.7 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 129.1% to 139.8% [6] Strategic Developments - The company has expanded its overseas market presence, entering Poland, Switzerland, Czech Republic, and Slovakia, with plans to sell models P7, G9, and G6 in Q2 2025 [8] - The company has established partnerships with leading distribution companies in Europe to enhance its market penetration [8] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 89 billion, 129.4 billion, and 153.8 billion RMB, with growth rates of 118%, 45%, and 19% respectively [7][9] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of -1.316 billion RMB in 2025, turning positive with a profit of 2.408 billion RMB by 2026 [7][9]