2024 年 10 月 27 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 李永磊 S0350521080004 liyl03@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 董伯骏 S0350521080009 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 杨丽蓉 S0350524090008 yanglr@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] BDO、毒死蜱价格上涨，阳谷华泰拟发行股份 购买波米科技 ——基础化工行业周报 投资要点: 2024 年 10 月 24 日，国海化工景气指数为 96.01，较 10 月 17 日上涨 0.04。 投资建议：化工长周期景气向上 我们认为，当前全球化工行业景气度底部震荡，欧洲化工装置全球成本 最高，由于成本费用继续上升以及设备寿命到期，欧洲化工产能有加速 行业相对表现 2024/10/25 退出的迹象；而国内新增产能增量逐渐达峰，未来资本支出有望下行； 表现 1M 3M 12M 需求端，我们预计国内需求有望持续回升。中国优势企业的成本和效率 基础化工 17.5% 19.3% -2.6% 优势已经非常稳固，且仍在持续扩张产能，中国优势企业已经进入了 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][5][8] Core Insights - The company announced its Q3 2024 results on October 23, 2024, reporting revenue of 173 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 0.27%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 58 million yuan, up 5.74% year-over-year [2][5] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 5 yuan for every 10 shares, totaling 60 million yuan, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 91.32% [2][5] - The report highlights that the market's economic conditions have impacted the company's gross profit margin and growth rate, with a notable decline in gross profit and an increase in expense ratios [2][5][3] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 173 million yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 0.27% and a quarter-over-quarter decline of 30.24% due to seasonal factors [2][5] - The revenue growth was flat year-over-year primarily due to a high base from the previous year driven by major client strategies [2][5] Profitability Metrics - The gross profit for Q3 2024 was 131 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 4.99% and a quarter-over-quarter decline of 33.1%, with a gross margin of 75.38% [2][5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 58 million yuan, with a net profit margin of 33.68%, showing a year-over-year increase of 1.74 percentage points [2][5] Expense Analysis - The expense ratios for sales, management, and R&D in Q3 2024 were 29.39%, 12.74%, and 2.43%, respectively, with year-over-year increases in sales and management expenses [2][5] - The overall expense ratio increased by 1.89 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to events held during the quarter [2][5] Cash Flow and Liabilities - Cash received from sales and services in Q3 2024 was 143 million yuan, down 24.3% year-over-year [3] - Contract liabilities reached 965 million yuan, marking a year-over-year growth of 10.16% but a quarter-over-quarter decline of 3.61% [3] Future Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to generate revenues of 802 million yuan, 963 million yuan, and 1.147 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 258 million yuan, 303 million yuan, and 362 million yuan [6][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][5][8] Core Views - The company reported strong revenue growth and maintained stable profitability, with a year-on-year increase in revenue of 19.4% and net profit of 14.1% for the first three quarters of 2024 [1][2] - The gross margin has faced some pressure, with a slight increase in expense ratios, attributed to higher sales expenses due to recent acquisitions [2][5] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of the real estate market and renovation demand, particularly in gypsum board products, which have a strong market position [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 20.36 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.15 billion yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 3.07 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 19.4%, 14.1%, and 12.7% [1] - In Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 6.77 billion yuan, net profit of 930 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 910 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.8%, 8.2%, and 3.5% [1] - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 30.7%, with a slight decline compared to the previous year, while the net profit margin was 15.4% [2] - The company’s asset-liability ratio increased to 28.0% due to acquisitions, while operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 2.71 billion yuan, reflecting a 38.0% increase year-on-year [2][5] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve operating revenues of 27.72 billion yuan, 30.05 billion yuan, and 32.75 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.37 billion yuan, 4.85 billion yuan, and 5.45 billion yuan [5][6] - The expected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the next three years are 12.0, 10.8, and 9.6 times [5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2][5] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance shows sequential improvement with significant optimization in expense allocation [2][3] - The company achieved a revenue of 3.946 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 576 million yuan, marking a turnaround from loss to profit [2][3] - The company is undergoing a channel reform that is gradually stabilizing, with main product sales showing signs of recovery [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.328 billion yuan, an increase of 2.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 226 million yuan, up 32.9% year-on-year [2][3] - The gross profit margin continued to show a high growth trend, reaching 38.82%, benefiting from lower raw material costs and improved production efficiency [3][4] Market Strategy - The company is focusing on a national strategy, accelerating its layout in the central and northern markets while optimizing distributor quality in the eastern and southern regions [3][4] - The number of national distributors increased by 110 in Q3 2024, indicating a positive trend in channel reform [3][4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 5.5 billion, 6.3 billion, and 7.1 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7%, 15%, and 13% [5][6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 735 million, 889 million, and 1.062 billion yuan for the same years, with corresponding EPS of 0.94, 1.13, and 1.36 yuan [5][6]

Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance was strong, with both revenue and net profit reaching record highs [2][3] - Revenue in Q3 2024 was RMB 134 million, up 40.37% YoY and 16.52% QoQ [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders in Q3 2024 was RMB 82 million, up 45.53% YoY and 41.38% QoQ [3] - Gross margin in Q3 2024 was 86.84%, up 0.44 pct YoY and 5.55 pct QoQ [2] - Net profit margin in Q3 2024 was 60.86%, up 2.16 pct YoY and 10.33 pct QoQ [2] - The company's operating efficiency improved, with management expense ratio decreasing by 3.49 pct YoY [2] - R&D investment increased by 24.75% YoY, focusing on improving product performance and expanding product categories [2] Market Performance - The company's stock outperformed the CSI 300 index by 41.0% over 1 month, 63.2% over 3 months, and 25.9% over 12 months [2] - Current stock price is RMB 46.18, with a 52-week range of RMB 21.61-49.93 [2] - Total market capitalization is RMB 18.47 billion, with a circulating market cap of RMB 11.23 billion [2] Industry and Product Analysis - The company's MEMS gyroscopes and accelerometers have undergone three iterations, with performance reaching international advanced levels [6] - The company is developing fourth-generation products, including single-chip three-axis gyroscopes and industrial-grade gyroscopes [6] - The FM accelerometer has entered small-scale production, marking a significant industry advancement [6] - The company is developing pressure sensors and 6-axis automotive-grade IMUs for autonomous driving and robotics [6] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow to RMB 451 million in 2024, RMB 652 million in 2025, and RMB 943 million in 2026 [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 234 million in 2024, RMB 343 million in 2025, and RMB 492 million in 2026 [6] - ROE is projected to increase from 10% in 2024 to 18% in 2026 [6] - P/E ratio is expected to decline from 78.89 in 2024 to 37.51 in 2026 [6] Growth Drivers - The company benefits from increasing penetration of MEMS sensors in high-reliability fields [6] - Emerging industries such as autonomous vehicles, low-altitude economy, and satellites are expected to create new growth opportunities [6] - The company's technological advantages and continuous product iteration support its competitive position [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights continuous cost optimization and excellent performance in the third quarter, with a focus on the company's coal production and sales metrics [1][3] - The company has shown resilience in its coal business despite a decrease in sales prices, with a notable improvement in gross margins due to cost management strategies [4][6] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 140.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.61 billion yuan, down 12.4% year-on-year [3] - In Q3 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 47.43 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 1.2% year-on-year [3] Coal Business - The company produced 35.81 million tons of commodity coal in Q3 2024, representing a 6.0% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 5.2% increase year-on-year [1][4] - The average selling price of self-produced coal decreased by 4.7% quarter-on-quarter, while the unit cost fell by 6.9%, leading to a gross profit of 270.1 yuan per ton and a gross margin of 49.6% [1][4] Coal Chemical Business - The report indicates that the coal chemical segment has seen improvements in gross margins due to cost optimization, with polyethylene and polypropylene sales volumes increasing by 2.8% and 2.6% respectively [4][5] - The overall unit gross profit for coal chemical products has improved compared to the previous year, despite some price declines [5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see revenue of 179.82 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected net profit of 18.40 billion yuan, reflecting a stable outlook supported by high long-term contract ratios and upcoming production from new mines [6][7] - The company plans to enhance shareholder returns through increased dividends, maintaining a positive growth trajectory in the coming years [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2][10]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated good control over period expenses, achieving steady growth in Q3 2024 with a revenue of 4.26 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.54% [4][5]. - The dual-core strategy of focusing on highways and logistics is expected to support the company's stable development [5][7]. - The company plans to invest in the expansion of the G80 Guangkun Expressway, which is anticipated to alleviate traffic pressure and enhance profitability [3][5]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 12.16 billion yuan, up 3.12% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.66 billion yuan, an increase of 2.99% [4][5]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 2.13 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.55% [4][5]. - The period expense ratio improved, decreasing by 3.91 percentage points year-on-year to 13.10% in Q3 2024, contributing to enhanced profitability [5][7]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 16.97 billion yuan, 17.62 billion yuan, and 18.29 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, with respective growth rates of 3.90%, 3.85%, and 3.75% [5][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 6.92 billion yuan, 7.13 billion yuan, and 7.35 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 4.68%, 3.06%, and 3.07% [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][2][6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2.161 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.35%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 198 million yuan, up 17.63% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 743 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.92% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.92%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 0.18% year-on-year and 20.05% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 25.00%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin increased by 0.63 percentage points year-on-year [2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: The company is expected to achieve revenues of 2.960 billion, 3.589 billion, and 4.337 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of 9%, 21%, and 21% [4][6] - Net Profit Forecast: The projected net profits for the same years are 302 million, 411 million, and 545 million yuan, with growth rates of 28%, 36%, and 33% respectively [4][6] - Valuation Metrics: The current price corresponds to a PE ratio of 34, 25, and 19 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][4][6] Market Data - As of October 25, 2024, the company's stock price is 25.41 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 10.36 billion yuan [2][6] - The stock has shown a performance of 39.5% over the last month, 35.4% over the last three months, but a decline of 23.2% over the last year [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady progress across its main business segments, with Q3 performance exceeding expectations, benefiting significantly from the AI wave in the consumer electronics sector [2][4] - The company reported a revenue of 177.18 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.67%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.075 billion yuan, up 23.06% year-on-year [3] - The Q3 revenue reached 73.579 billion yuan, reflecting a 27.07% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 3.679 billion yuan, increasing by 21.88% year-on-year [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders between 13.143 billion and 13.691 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 20% to 25%, with a midpoint estimate of 13.417 billion yuan, which is a 22.50% increase [3] - The company expects Q4 net profit to be between 4.068 billion and 4.616 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.69% to 28.99%, with a midpoint of 4.342 billion yuan, reflecting a 21.34% growth [3] Business Development - The company is closely collaborating with major clients, particularly in the smart device sector, which is expected to drive a wave of upgrades due to the upcoming launch of Apple Intelligence [4] - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 11.72%, a slight decrease of 0.08 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 5.12% [4][6] Market Position - The company has a strong market presence, with a 17.7% market share in the smart device sector, and is expected to benefit from the AI integration in consumer electronics [4] - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on expanding into automotive and communication sectors, alongside its core consumer electronics business [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][25]. Core Insights - The company has shown a significant increase in net profit year-on-year, with a 68.40% rise in the first three quarters of 2024, driven by the rising prices of refrigerant products [2][4]. - The company is a leading global player in the refrigerant market, benefiting from production quotas for third-generation refrigerants starting in 2024, which is expected to optimize the industry supply-demand structure [4][5]. - The company's revenue for Q3 2024 was 58.26 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.53% year-on-year, but the net profit for the same period increased by 64.76% [2][3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 179.06 billion yuan, up 11.83% year-on-year, and a net profit of 12.58 billion yuan, up 68.40% year-on-year [2][3]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 17.39%, an increase of 6.78 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 8.01%, up 3.51 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. - The company’s operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was 1.95 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.25% [2][3]. Product Segmentation - The company has a diverse product portfolio, including first to fourth generation fluorinated refrigerants, and has a significant production quota for HFCs, holding 39.16% of the national market share [4][5]. - Revenue from refrigerants in Q3 2024 was 23.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60.04%, with an average price of 28,148 yuan per ton, up 44.88% year-on-year [2][9]. - The company is also expanding its production capacity for HFOs, with plans for a new production facility expected to add 9,000 tons per year [5][7]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 243.10 billion yuan, 272.27 billion yuan, and 289.66 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [25][28]. - The expected net profits for the same years are 17.47 billion yuan, 21.43 billion yuan, and 26.11 billion yuan, indicating strong growth potential [25][28]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to decrease from 32.43 in 2024 to 21.70 by 2026, suggesting an attractive valuation as the company grows [25][28].